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Measurements of temperature taken by instruments all over the world, on land and
at sea have revealed that during the 20th century the Earth’s surface and lowest
part of the atmosphere warmed up on average by about 0.6°C. During this period,
man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane and
nitrous oxide have increased, largely as a result of the burning of fossil fuels for
energy and transportation, and land use changes including deforestation for
agriculture. In the last 20 years, concern has grown that these two phenomena are,
at least in part, associated with each other. That is to say, global warming is now
considered most probably to be due to the increases in greenhouse gas emissions
and concurrent increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, which
have enhanced the Earth's natural greenhouse effect. Whilst other natural causes of
climate change can cause global climate to change over similar periods of time,
computer models demonstrate that in all probability there is a real discernible
human influence on the global climate.
If the climate changes as current computer models have projected, global average
surface temperature could be anywhere from 1.4 to 5.8°C higher by the end of the
21st century than in 1990. To put this temperature change into context, the increase
in global average surface temperature which brought the Earth out of the last major
ice age 14,000 years ago was of the order of 4 to 5°C. Such a rapid change in
climate will probably be too great to allow many ecosystems to suitably adapt, and
the rate of species extinction will most likely increase. In addition to impacts on
wildlife and species biodiversity, human agriculture, forestry, water resources and
health will all be affected. Such impacts will be related to changes in precipitation
(rainfall and snowfall), sea level, and the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events, resulting from global warming. It is expected that the societies
currently experiencing existing social, economic and climatic stresses will be both
worst affected and least able to adapt. These will include many in the developing
world, low-lying islands and coastal regions, and the urban poor.
The Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the Kyoto Protocol
(1997) represent the first steps taken by the international community to protect the
Earth's climate from dangerous man-made interference. Currently, nations have
agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by an average of about 5% from 1990
levels by the period 2008 to 2012. The UK, through its Climate Change
Programme, has committed itself to a 12.5% cut in greenhouse gas emissions.
Additional commitments for further greenhouse gas emission reduction will need
to be negotiated during the early part of the 21st century, if levels of greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere are to be stabilised at reasonable levels.
Existing and future targets can be achieved by embracing the concept of
sustainable development - development today that does not compromise the
development needs of future generations. In practical terms, this means using
resources, particularly fossil-fuel-derived energy, more efficiently, re-using and
recycling products where possible, and developing renewable forms of energy
which are inexhaustible and do not pollute the atmosphere.
Measurements of surface temperature recorded around the world during the last
150 years indicate that global temperatures are now higher than in any decade over
this period. During the 20th century a global average surface temperature increase
of about 0.6°C years has taken place, although the warming trend has not been
smooth and has taken place rather differently between the Northern and Southern
Hemispheres. With this in mind, it is important to recognise that global average
surface temperature, as a measure of the global climate, represents an over-
simplification. Winter temperatures and night-time minimums for example, may
have risen more than summer temperatures and daytime maximums.
With higher global temperatures one would expect an increase in rainfall and other
forms of precipitation, because of the greater amount of moisture available within
the atmosphere. Striking changes in precipitation have occurred on regional scales,
most notably the drought in the African Sahel between the 1960s and 1980s.
Nevertheless, the accuracy of many precipitation records should be treated with
caution. Precipitation is more difficult to monitor than temperature due to its
greater geographical variability.
Variations in land- and sea-ice coverage and the melting or growth of glaciers
occur in response to changes in temperature, sunshine, precipitation, and for sea-
ice changes in wind. Since 1966 Northern Hemisphere snow cover maps have been
produced by the United States using satellite imagery. Consistent with the surface
and tropospheric temperature measurements is the decrease (by about 10%) in
snow cover and extent since the late 1960s. There has been a widespread retreat of
mountain glaciers in non-polar regions during the 20th century. Variations in sea-
ice extent have also been reported, with spring and summer sea-ice extent in the
Northern Hemisphere decreasing by between 10 an 15% since the 1950s.
Considerable interest is now focusing on Antarctica, where regional warming, as
predicted by climate models, has been more rapid than global warming as a whole.
In recent years the summertime disintegration of the Larsen Sea Ice Shelf adjacent
the Antarctic continent has been occurring on an unprecedented scale. In view of
the rapidity at which it is taking place, such an event has been viewed as a possible
signal of global warming.
Prediction of climate change over the next 100 to 150 years is based solely on
climate model simulations run on computers. The vast majority of modelling has
concentrated on the effects of continued man-made pollution of the atmosphere by
greenhouse gases, and to a lesser extent, atmospheric aerosols. The main concern
at present is to determine how much the Earth will warm in the near future.
Significant results from some of the best climate models available indicate that a
global average warming of 0.3°C per decade can be expected to occur during the
21st century, assuming that mankind fails to control current emissions of
greenhouse gases, although it could be as high as 0.6°C. In addition regional
variations in the patterns of temperature and precipitation change will occur, with
greater warming likely in the polar regions. Currently, models suggest that if the
atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, is doubled
from pre-industrial levels, the Earth will warm by between 1.5 and 4.5°C sometime
over the next 200 years or so. The large margin of error in future prediction of
temperature emphasises that modelling the climate is inherently a difficult
business. Part of the problem stems from trying to guess what climate feedbacks
might occur that may enhance the initial warming due to an enhanced greenhouse
effect. Melting ice in the polar regions for example could accelerate warming
because exposed ground absorbs more energy from the Sun than snow and ice,
which reflect about 80 to 90%.
Whilst uncertainties concerning the actual response of the global climate to man-
made greenhouse gas emissions exist, most scientists agree that the global
warming trend of the 20th century will continue into the 21st century. The
projected rate of warming is faster than at any time during recent Earth history. If
nations fail to respond, the world may experience numerous adverse impacts as a
result of global warming in the decades ahead.
TEMPERATURE CHANGES
Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and
rising global average sea level. The most common measure of global warming is
the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a
linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005.
The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the
period as a whole (0.13 ± 0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per
decade). The urban heat island effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of
warming per decade since 1900. Temperatures in the lower troposphere have
increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979,
according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have
been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with
regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little
Ice Age.
Estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National
Climatic Data Center show that 2005 was the planet's warmest year since reliable,
widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 19th century,
exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a
degree.Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the
Climatic Research Unit show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998.
Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Niño in the
past century occurred during that year. Global temperature is subject to short-term
fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The
relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an
episode.
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have
increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against
0.13 °C per decade).Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land
temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and
because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation. The Northern Hemisphere
warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because
it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo
feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than
Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because
the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean
that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate
commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000
levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.
Global warming has been and is being caused due to a various number of factors.
Global warming is basically a change in the climatic conditions of the earth. These
climatic conditions vary due to various reason, external and internal. Changes to
climatic conditions and therefore Global Warming can be caused to to natural or
man-made circumstances also. Some of the factors causing global warming are
volcanic emissions and solar activity.
According to the solar variation theory,the sun has been gaining strength and is at
it's strongest since a sixty years. Therefore, it may now be acting as a cause of
global warming. Sunspots are also said to be a cause or catalyst for Global
Warming. Recent reports suggest that the number of sunspots in an area directly
affects the amount of time the nearby earth takes to cool. The sun is the main
source of energy to the earth. The earth absorbs about seventy percent of the earth's
solar flux. This solar flux increases the temperature of the earth's atmosphere, land
and oceans.
Orbital forcing is also said to be one of the natural causes of Global Warming. The
reports show the effect of the slow tilting of the earth's axis on the climate of the
earth.The greenhouse effect is said to be the most important factor regarding global
warming. When infrared radiation from the atmosphere increases the temperature
of the earth's surface, it is termed as the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect
has increased the earth's temperature by about twenty four percent.
Carbon dioxide contributes about twelve percent of the greenhouse effect, while
water vapor contributes thirty six percent of the greenhouse effect. Methane causes
five to ten percent of Global Warming, while Ozone makes around three to seven
percent of the greenhouse effect possible.
Solar variation is said to be another reason of Global Warming. The changes in the
amount of radiant energy emitted by the Sun are known as solar variation. This
solar variation has been correlated with the changes in the Earth's climate and
temperature.
Along with the natural causes of Global Warming, scientists have also contributed
rapid industrialization to the increase of Global Warming today.Humans had first
affected global warming some eight thousand years ago, with the start of
agriculture. Due to the clearing of the forests for agriculture, the amount of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere increased drastically.
Scientists are of the opinion that industrialization releases various gases like
carbon-dioxide and methane which are known to contribute to Global Warming.
Deforestation is also said to increase global warming. Trees contain a high level of
carbon, and therefore their cutting creates an increase of carbon in the atmosphere.
Humankind also contributes to the increase of carbon dioxide by the burning of
fossil fuels. The contribution of humankind to global warming due to the burning
of fossil fuels has increased by about eighty percent in the past twenty years.
If the greenhouse effect didn't exist, the temperature of the earth would be around
twenty seven Celsius less. Some scientists are of the opinion that human life would
be impossible on planet earth if the temperature would be so less.
In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report scientists conclude that "warming of the
climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice,
and rising global average sea level" and, furthermore, they conclude with "very
high confidence (at least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct) that the globally
averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming" of the
Earth's climate system.
As with every environmental variable, there are multiple factors that contribute to
the "warmth" of the Earth. Humans measure warmth as temperature which is a
measure of the amount of heat contained in a physical object. One can envision this
concept by thinking of a pot on a stove. As heat is applied to the pot from a flame
or heating element, the temperature of the pot will increase. But heat will also
begin escaping the pot in the form of steam and also through radiative and
convective cooling from the top and the sides of the pot. Eventually the rates of
both heat loss (cooling) and heat gain (warming) may stabilize and the heat then
contained within the pot at an instantaneous point of time would be reflected in an
equilibrium temperature. This equilibrium temperature could be measured directly
but it also could be calculated by determining all of the flux rates of heat entering
(heating) and leaving (cooling) the pot.
Water in a boiling pot receives heat from an element or flame and loses heat via
steam and radiative cooling.
One way that climate scientists look at the warmth of the Earth's climate system is
to calculate the annual average temperature of the surface of the Earth using
temperature measurements systematically collected throughout the year from
thousands of land- and ocean-based weather and observation stations. The
observed trends in the Earth's annual average temperature is one of the factors
leading to the scientific conclusion that the Earth is now in a period of global
warming.
In order to attempt to answer why the Earth is currently warming, scientists have
conducted accountings of each of the fluxes of heat into (warming) and out of
(cooling) the Earth's climate system. Since the measured data show that annual
average temperatures of the Earth have been increasing in recent decades, the year-
to-year annual flux of heat into the climate system must be greater than the annual
flux of heat out of the system. By accounting for each of the fluxes of heat into and
out of the system, scientists are able to assess which fluxes and processes are
contributing to net annual warming of the Earth's surface. By conducting such
accountings, scientists are able to quantify the influence that each natural and
human factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the
Earth-atmosphere system and can calculate an index of the importance of each of
the factor as a potential climate change mechanism. Each of the factors are called
climate drivers and the relative impact or index of each factor's importance to
climate change is called its radiative forcing.
In completing such an assessment, the IPCC has concluded with very high
confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has
been one of warming. The scientists found that the combined radiative forcing due
to increases in carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide is the largest climate
driver and its rate of increase during the industrial era is very likely to have been
unprecedented in more than 10,000 years. Furthermore, the carbon dioxide
radiative forcing increased by 20% from 1995 to 2005, the largest change for any
decade in at least the last 200 years.
The IPCC also found that anthropogenic contributions to aerosols in the
atmosphere produce cooling effects, referred to as global dimming. However the
cooling (global dimming) effects due to human-caused aerosols are equivalent to
about half of the warming effects due to the combined radiative forcing of human-
produced greenhouse gases, causing a net warming.
Finally, an increase in solar irradiance since 1750 was estimated to have caused a
forcing that contributed to the recent warming of the Earth. However, the impact of
the increase in the amount of sunlight striking the Earth each year during this ~250
year time span was estimated to be only about 1/20th of the warming impacts of
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
Although opinions are mixed about exactly how the Earth's climate responds to
GHGs, most researchers are in agreement that greenhouse gases from industry and
agriculture have played a major role in global warming. Just the increase in the
population of the planet has to have had some effect on the GHGs in the
atmosphere, because more people are breathing out carbon dioxide, and
deforestation to make room for those people has resulted in fewer trees producing
oxygen. The burning of fossil fuels also leads to higher concentrations of carbon
dioxide, which constitutes about 76% of all the greenhouse gases in the Earth's
atmosphere. Most of the increase in carbon dioxide has occurred in the last 50
years. Measurements from Antarctic ice core samples have shown that carbon
dioxide concentrations stayed pretty stable for about 10,000 years, but began rising
in the mid-20th century.
Methane gas accounts for about 13% of the GHGs in the atmosphere. Since 1750,
the amount of methane gas in the atmosphere has doubled, and some scientists say
that amount could double again by 2050. Each year nearly 500 tons of methane are
added to the air by coal mining, drilling for oil and natural gas, landfill emissions,
wetland changes, and pipeline losses. New style fully vented septic systems,
Livestock and paddy rice farming, CFCs used in refrigeration systems, and halons
in fire suppression systems are also sources of atmospheric methane. Most GHGs
take a very long time to leave the atmosphere, but methane stays in the atmosphere
for only 10 years. However, it traps 20 times more heat than carbon dioxide.
The treaty included provisions for eventually setting mandatory emissions limits,
with the primary update being the Kyoto Protocol, which was established in 2005.
Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and three groups of fluorinated gases are
the subject of the Kyoto Protocol. Part of the reason for establishing the Kyoto
Protocol was the increased sense of urgency felt by many scientists as newer data
is found to support the theory of "global warming", which could have disastrous
effects upon the Earth if changes are not implemented right now.
Greenhouse Gases
Before we discuss global warming due to greenhouse gases, in detail, let's first
have a look at the greenhouse gases list below:
Carbon
CO2 9 – 26 %
Dioxide
Ozone O3 3 – 7 %
It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes an exact percentage of the
greenhouse effect. This is because some of the gases absorb and emit radiation at
the same frequencies as others, so that the total greenhouse effect is not simply the
sum of the influence of each gas. The higher ends of the ranges quoted are for each
gas alone; the lower ends account for overlaps with the other gases.[9][10] The
major non-gas contributor to the Earth's greenhouse effect, clouds, also absorb and
emit infrared radiation and thus have an effect on radiative properties of the
greenhouse gases.
In addition to the main greenhouse gases listed above, other greenhouse gases
include sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons (see IPCC
list of greenhouse gases). Some greenhouse gases are not often listed. For example,
nitrogen trifluoride has a high global warming potential (GWP) but is only present
in very small quantities.
The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report compiled by the IPCC (AR4) noted that
"changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land
cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system", and
concluded that "increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations is very
likely to have caused most of the increases in global average temperatures since the
mid-20th century".In AR4, "most of" is defined as more than 50%.
Current
Gas Preindustrial level Increase since 1750 Radiative forcing(W/m2)
level
Carbon
280 ppm 388 ppm 108 ppm 1.46
dioxide
Indeed higher CO2 concentrations are thought to have prevailed throughout most
of the Phanerozoic eon, with concentrations four to six times current
concentrations during the Mesozoic era, and ten to fifteen times current
concentrations during the early Palaeozoic era until the middle of the Devonian
period, about 400 Ma.The spread of land plants is thought to have reduced CO2
concentrations during the late Devonian, and plant activities as both sources and
sinks of CO2 have since been important in providing stabilising feedbacks.
Cement production 3 %
"International bunker fuels" of
transport 4 %
not included in national inventories
A new source of harmful carbon emissions has been discovered, these emissions
are PAHs. PAHs are a form of carbon emissions that can come from tire wear on
pavement . So essentially even if all cars were converted to exhaust free electric
cars, there would still be emission created from people driving and over the entire
world this is still a large source of carbon emissions. These recent studies show
that 27% of PAH emission from exhaust could be generated by breakdown of a
small car tire . This represents a serious problem in the sense that, these are
significant amount of emissions being released and this is relatively unknown to
people. This is certainly an emerging topic that needs to be researched so that
better tires that give off fewer PAHs when breaking down can be put into
widespread use.
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ranks the major greenhouse gas
contributing end-user sectors in the following order: industrial, transportation,
residential, commercial and agricultural. Major sources of an individual's
greenhouse gas include home heating and cooling, electricity consumption, and
transportation. Corresponding conservation measures are improving home building
insulation, installing geothermal heat pumps and compact fluorescent lamps, and
choosing energy-efficient vehicles.
Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and three groups of fluorinated gases
(sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs) are the major greenhouse gases and the
subject of the Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005.
Although CFCs are greenhouse gases, they are regulated by the Montreal Protocol,
which was motivated by CFCs' contribution to ozone depletion rather than by their
contribution to global warming. Note that ozone depletion has only a minor role in
greenhouse warming though the two processes often are confused in the media.
The Clausius-Clapeyron relation establishes that air can hold more water vapor per
unit volume when it warms. This and other basic principles indicate that warming
associated with increased concentrations of the other greenhouse gases also will
increase the concentration of water vapor. Because water vapor is a greenhouse gas
this results in further warming, a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original
warming. This positive feedback does not result in runaway global warming
because it is offset by other processes that induce negative feedbacks, which
stabilize average global temperatures.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the concentrations of most of the
greenhouse gases have increased. For example, the mole fraction of carbon dioxide
has increased by about 36% to 380 ppm, or 100 ppm over modern pre-industrial
levels. The first 50 ppm increase took place in about 200 years, from the start of
the Industrial Revolution to around 1973; however the next 50 ppm increase took
place in about 33 years, from 1973 to 2006.
Recent data also shows that the concentration is increasing at a higher rate. In the
1960s, the average annual increase was only 37% of what it was in 2000 through
2007.
The other greenhouse gases produced from human activity show similar increases
in both amount and rate of increase. Many observations are available online in a
variety of Atmospheric Chemistry Observational Databases.
Increase Increase
Radiative
Current (1998) (absolute, ppm) (relative, %)
Gas forcing
Amount by volume over pre-industrial over pre-industrial
(W/m2)
(1750) (1750)
Relevant to both radiative forcing and ozone depletion; all of the following have no
natural sources and hence zero amounts pre-industrial
Carbon
102 ppt 0.01
tetrachloride
Cumulative emissions
Over the 1900-2005 period, the US was the world's largest cumulative emitter of
energy-related CO2 emissions, and accounted for 30% of total cumulative
emissions (IEA, 2007, p. 201). The second largest emitter was the EU, at 23%; the
third largest was China, at 8%; fourth was Japan, at 4%; fifth was India, at 2%. The
rest of the world accounted for 33% of global, cumulative, energy-related CO2
emissions.
Today, the stock of carbon in the atmosphere increases by more than 3 million
tonnes per annum (0.04%) compared with the existing stock. It seems less, but year
after year is enormous cumulative. This increase is the result of human activities
by burning fossil fuels, deforestation and forest degradation in tropical and boreal.
Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten
times the average in developing countries (Grubb, 2003, p. 144).Due to China's
fast economic development, its per capita emissions are quickly approaching the
levels of those in the Annex I group of the Kyoto Protocol (PBL, 2009).Other
countries with fast growing emissions are South Korea, Iran, and Australia. On the
other hand, per capita emissions of the EU-15 and the USA are gradually
decreasing over time. Emissions in Russia and the Ukraine have decreased fastest
since 1990 due to economic restructuring in these countries (Carbon Trust, 2009, p.
24).
Energy statistics for fast growing economies are less accurate than those for the
industrialized countries. For China's annual emissions in 2008, PBL (2008)
estimated an uncertainty range of about 10%.
Top emitters
In 2005, the world's top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG emissions (PBL,
2010. See notes for the following table).[55] Tabulated below are the top-5
emitters for the year 2005 (MNP, 2007).[56] The second column is the country's or
region's share of the global total of annual emissions. The third column is the
country's or region's average annual per capita emissions, in tonnes of GHG per
head of population:
% of global
Tonnes of GHG
Country or region total
per capita
annual emissions
Table footnotes:
These values are for the GHG emissions from fossil fuel use and cement
production. Calculations are for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),
nitrous oxide (N2O) and gases containing fluorine (the F-gases HFCs, PFCs
and SF6).
These estimates are subject to large uncertainties regarding CO2 emissions
from deforestation; and the per country emissions of other GHGs (e.g.,
methane). There are also other large uncertainties which mean that small
differences between countries are not significant. CO2 emissions from the
decay of remaining biomass after biomass burning/deforestation are not
included.
a Industrialised countries: official country data reported to UNFCCC.
b Excluding underground fires.
c Including an estimate of 2000 million tonnes CO2 from peat fires and
decomposition of peat soils after draining. However, the uncertainty range is
very large.
Effect of policy
Rogner et al. (2007) assessed the effectiveness of policies to reduce emissions
(mitigation of climate change).They concluded that mitigation policies undertaken
by UNFCCC Parties were inadequate to reverse the trend of increasing GHG
emissions. The impacts of population growth, economic development,
technological investment, and consumption had overwhelmed improvements in
energy intensities and efforts to decarbonize (energy intensity is a country's total
primary energy supply (TPES) per unit of GDP . TPES is a measure of commercial
energy consumption.
Projections
Based on then-current energy policies, Rogner et al. (2007) projected that energy-
related CO2 emissions in 2030 would be 40-110% higher than in 2000. Two-thirds
of this increase was projected to come from non-Annex I countries. Per capita
emissions in Annex I countries were still projected to remain substantially higher
than per capita emissions in non-Annex I countries. Projections consistently
showed a 25-90% increase in the Kyoto gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) compared to 2000.
Mass of carbon dioxide emitted per quantity of energy for various fuels
CO2 CO2
(lbs/106 Btu) (g/106 J)
Natural gas 117 50.30
Liquefied petroleum gas 139 59.76
Propane 139 59.76
Aviation gasoline 153 65.78
Automobile gasoline 156 67.07
Kerosene 159 68.36
Fuel oil 161 69.22
Tires/tire derived fuel 189 81.26
Wood and wood waste 195 83.83
Coal (bituminous) 205 88.13
Coal (subbituminous) 213 91.57
Coal (lignite) 215 92.43
Petroleum coke 225 96.73
Coal (anthracite) 227 97.59
Atmospheric lifetime
Aside from water vapor, which has a residence time of about nine days,[61] major
greenhouse gases are well-mixed, and take many years to leave the atmosphere.
Although it is not easy to know with precision how long it takes greenhouse gases
to leave the atmosphere, there are estimates for the principal greenhouse gases.
Jacob (1999)defines the lifetime τ of an atmospheric species X in a one-box model
as the average time that a molecule of X remains in the box. Mathematically τ can
be defined as the ratio of the mass m (in kg) of X in the box to its removal rate,
which is the sum of the flow of X out of the box (Fout), chemical loss of X (L),
and deposition of X (D) (all in kg/sec):
Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 for several
greenhouse gases are given in the following table :
Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various greenhouse gases.
When we talk about the effects and consequences of global warming on the
environment, we refer to its effects on various attributes of environment - which
includes flora, fauna and humans. Basically, these effects of global warming on
various lifeforms on the planet are attributed to climate change triggered by
incessantly increasing global near-surface temperatures. The most prominent
global warming effects on weather include extreme weather conditions - such as
frequent droughts, heat waves, devastating hurricanes etc., all of which in turn
affect various lifeforms on the planet. Given below are the details of global
warming effects on planet Earth - with special emphasis on its effects on plants,
animals and humans.
That must have given you a rough idea as to what are the impacts of global
warming on the environment, with special emphasis on its impact on plants,
animals and humans. It's high time we take the seriousness of the global warming
causes and effects into consideration, and start working to save the planet. While
the concerned authorities continue to ponder upon various global warming
solutions at the international level, we can do our bit by resorting to some simple
yet effective stop global warming tips to save our planet. Over the period of time,
the problem of global warming has become so intense that it will take mammoth
efforts on our behalf to reduce the intensity of various global warming effects on
Earth, if not get rid of them totally.
People should reduce the usage of electrical appliances which emits green
house gases. For e.g. the refrigerator releases chloro fluro carbon (CFC) and
the incandescent light lamp emits 300 pounds of carbon dioxide a year. This
can be replaced by a compact fluorescent light bulb which saves much
energy.
Insulation of the ceiling of a house and power saving is the important factor
to reduce global warming. The electric appliances should be switched off
instead to hold it in stand by mode. This will save more power since stand
by mode consumes 40% of the energy.
Teach your neighborhood and friends about the cause and impacts of global
warming and methods to reduce it. Conservation of forests also forms a
factor to reduce global warming.
As per the U.S. energy report, heating as well as cooling systems emit maximum
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The energy used for our homes for heating goes
in vain though the prevention is inexpensive and simple. This energy that goes vain
can be saved by reducing the need for air conditioners. This can help improve the
environment from pollution. The largest source is transportation that adds to
greenhouse gases. Vehicles are responsible and poor maintenance of vehicle
contributes to pollution and global warming.
Maintaining Vehicle Efficiency
This can be protected by increasing the overall fuel efficiency of your vehicle and
paying attention to your driving style and maintenance. Buying fuel efficient
hybrid cars that allows using gas electric engines and thereby cutting global
warming pollution to a great extent. Driving less and making use of public
transports, walking or riding a bike will save the environment from pollution.
Besides this, consolidating trips and encouraging car- pooling is one of the
effective ways of preventing global warming. Recycling maximum products,
eating local foods and vegetarian meals, painting home in light color, purchasing
energy certificates as well as carbon offsets are few of the ways of preventing our
wonderful planet, the earth from the disastrous global warming.
Though, there are many ways to prevent initiating and following it with
determination will yield the desired results. This is a unison effort and so all the
hands have to join together with force to push the effects of global warming back
beyond sight.
There are numerous ways to stop global warming, and all of these rely on a single
method - identifying the causes of global warming and working to eliminate them.
Given below are some of the simplest measures which can help you in doing your
bit to stop global warming and save the Earth.
Promote the use of organic products: Promoting the use of organic foods is also
one of the effective ways to prevent global warming. The tendency of organic soils
to capture carbon dioxide far exceeds that of the soil used in conventional farming.
Estimates suggest that we can get rid of 580 billion lbs of carbon dioxide if we
resort to organic farming for food production.
Rising seas would inundate coastal communities, contaminate water supplies with
salt and increase the risk of flooding by storm surge, affecting tens of millions of
people globally. Moreover, extreme weather events, including heat waves,
droughts and floods, are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity, causing
loss of lives and property and throwing agriculture into turmoil.
Even though higher levels of CO2 can act as a plant fertilizer under some
conditions, scientists now think that the "CO2 fertilization" effect on crops has
been overstated; in natural ecosystems, the fertilization effect can diminish after a
few years as plants acclimate. Furthermore, increased CO2 may benefit
undesirable, weedy species more than desirable species.
Higher levels of CO2 have already caused ocean acidification, and scientists are
warning of potentially devastating effects on marine life and fisheries. Moreover,
higher levels of regional ozone (smog), a result of warmer temperatures, could
worsen respiratory illnesses. Less developed countries and natural ecosystems may
not have the capacity to adapt.
The notion that there will be regional "winners" and "losers" in global warming is
based on a world-view from the 1950's. We live in a global community. Never
mind the moral implications — when an environmental catastrophe creates
millions of refugees half-way around the world, Americans are affected.
Climate has changed in the past and human societies have survived, but today six
billion people depend on interconnected ecosystems and complex technological
infrastructure. With much greater climate changes expected in the future, there is
much greater risk to today's larger population and infrastructure.
What's more, unless we limit the amount of heat-trapping gases we are putting into
the atmosphere now, we face continued warming and even larger climate changes
than we already see today.
In what appears to be the first forced move resulting from climate change,
100 residents of Tegua island in the Pacific Ocean were relocated by the
government in 2005 because rising sea levels were flooding their island.
Some 2,000 other islanders plan a similar move to escape rising waters.
In the United States, the village of Shishmaref in Alaska, which has been
inhabited for thousands of years, is collapsing from melting permafrost.
Relocation plans are in the works.
Scarcity of water and food could lead to major conflicts with broad ripple effects
throughout the globe. Even if people find a way to adapt, the wildlife and plants on
which we depend may be unable to adapt to rapid climate change. While the world
itself will not end, the world as we know it may disappear.
• Average temperatures have climbed 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degree Celsius)
around the world since 1880, much of this in recent decades, according to NASA's
Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
• The rate of warming is increasing. The 20th century's last two decades were the
hottest in 400 years and possibly the warmest for several millennia, according to a
number of climate studies. And the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) reports that 11 of the past 12 years are among the dozen
warmest since 1850.
• The Arctic is feeling the effects the most. Average temperatures in Alaska,
western Canada, and eastern Russia have risen at twice the global average,
according to the multinational Arctic Climate Impact Assessment report compiled
between 2000 and 2004.
• Arctic ice is rapidly disappearing, and the region may have its first
completelyice-free summer by 2040 or earlier. Polar bears and indigenous
cultures are already suffering from the sea-ice loss.
• Coral reefs, which are highly sensitive to small changes in water temperature,
suffered the worst bleaching—or die-off in response to stress—ever recorded in
1998, with some areas seeing bleach rates of 70 percent. Experts expect these sorts
of events to increase in frequency and intensity in the next 50 years as sea
temperatures rise.
• Humans are pouring carbon dioxide into the atmosphere much faster than plants
and oceans can absorb it.
• These gases persist in the atmosphere for years, meaning that even if such
emissions were eliminated today, it would not immediately stop global warming.
• Some experts point out that natural cycles in Earth's orbit can alter the planet's
exposure to sunlight, which may explain the current trend. Earth has indeed
experienced warming and cooling cycles roughly every hundred thousand years
due to these orbital shifts, but such changes have occurred over the span of several
centuries. Today's changes have taken place over the past hundred years or less.
• Other recent research has suggested that the effects of variations in the sun's
output are "negligible" as a factor in warming, but other, more complicated solar
mechanisms could possibly play a role.
• Sea level could rise between 7 and 23 inches (18 to 59 centimeters) by century's
end, the IPCC's February 2007 report projects. Rises of just 4 inches (10
centimeters) could flood many South Seas islands and swamp large parts of
Southeast Asia.
• Some hundred million people live within 3 feet (1 meter) of mean sea level, and
much of the world's population is concentrated in vulnerable coastal cities. In the
U.S., Louisiana and Florida are especially at risk.
• Glaciers around the world could melt, causing sea levels to rise while creating
water shortages in regions dependent on runoff for fresh water.
• Strong hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, wildfires, and other natural disasters
may become commonplace in many parts of the world. The growth of deserts may
also cause food shortages in many places.
• The ocean's circulation system, known as the ocean conveyor belt, could be
permanently altered, causing a mini-ice age in Western Europe and other rapid
changes.
What is Climategate?
The email exchanges also refer to statistical tricks used to illustrate climate
change? trends, and call climate skeptics idiots, according to the New York Times.
One such trick was used to create the well-known hockey-stick graph, which
shows a sharp uptick in temperature increases during the 20th century. Former U.S
vice president Al Gore relied heavily on the graph as evidence of human-caused
climate change in the documentary An Inconvenient Truth.
The data used for this graph come from two sources: thermostat readings and tree-
ring samples.
While thermostat readings have consistently shown a temperature rise over the past
hundred years, tree-ring samples show temperature increases stalling around 1960.
But scientists argue that dropping the tree-ring data was no secret and has been
written about in the scientific literature for years.
Climate change skeptics have heralded the emails as an attempt to fool the public,
according to the Times.
Yet climate scientists maintain that these controversial points are small blips that
are inevitable in scientific research, and that the evidence for human-induced
climate change is much broader and still widely accepted.
CARBON CREDIT
A carbon credit is a generic term for any tradable certificate or permit representing
the right to emit one tonne of carbon or carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e).
Carbon credits and carbon markets are a component of national and international
attempts to mitigate the growth in concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs).
One carbon credit is equal to one ton of carbon dioxide, or in some markets, carbon
dioxide equivalent gases. Carbon trading is an application of an emissions trading
approach. Greenhouse gas emissions are capped and then markets are used to
allocate the emissions among the group of regulated sources. The goal is to allow
market mechanisms to drive industrial and commercial processes in the direction
of low emissions or less carbon intensive approaches than those used when there is
no cost to emitting carbon dioxide and other GHGs into the atmosphere. Since
GHG mitigation projects generate credits, this approach can be used to finance
carbon reduction schemes between trading partners and around the world.
There are also many companies that sell carbon credits to commercial and
individual customers who are interested in lowering their carbon footprint on a
voluntary basis. These carbon offsetters purchase the credits from an investment
fund or a carbon development company that has aggregated the credits from
individual projects. The quality of the credits is based in part on the validation
process and sophistication of the fund or development company that acted as the
sponsor to the carbon project. This is reflected in their price; voluntary units
typically have less value than the units sold through the rigorously validated Clean
Development Mechanism.
DEFINITIONS
The Collins English Dictionary defines a carbon credit as “a certificate showing
that a government or company has paid to have a certain amount of carbon dioxide
removed from the environment”.
BACKGROUND
Burning of fossil fuels is a major source of industrial greenhouse gas emissions,
especially for power, cement, steel, textile, fertilizer and many other industries
which rely on fossil fuels (coal, electricity derived from coal, natural gas and oil).
The major greenhouse gases emitted by these industries are carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), etc., all of which
increase the atmosphere's ability to trap infrared energy and thus affect the climate.
while noting that a tradable permit system is one of the policy instruments that has
been shown to be environmentally effective in the industrial sector, as long as there
are reasonable levels of predictability over the initial allocation mechanism and
long-term price.
Emission allowances
Under the Kyoto Protocol, the 'caps' or quotas for Greenhouse gases for the
developed Annex 1 countries are known as Assigned Amountsand are listed in
Annex B. The quantity of the initial assigned amount is denominated in individual
units, called Assigned amount units(AAUs), each of which represents an allowance
to emit one metric tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent, and these are entered into
the country's national registry.
In turn, these countries set quotas on the emissions of installations run by local
business and other organizations, generically termed 'operators'. Countries manage
this through their national registries, which are required to be validated and
monitored for compliance by theUNFCCC. Each operator has an allowance of
credits, where each unit gives the owner the right to emit one metric tonne
of carbon dioxideor other equivalent greenhouse gas. Operators that have not used
up their quotas can sell their unused allowances as carbon credits, while businesses
that are about to exceed their quotas can buy the extra allowances as credits,
privately or on the open market. As demand for energy grows over time, the total
emissions must still stay within the cap, but it allows industry some flexibility and
predictability in its planning to accommodate this.
By permitting allowances to be bought and sold, an operator can seek out the most
cost-effective way of reducing its emissions, either by investing in 'cleaner'
machinery and practices or by purchasing emissions from another operator who
already has excess 'capacity'.
Since 2005, the Kyoto mechanism has been adopted for CO2 trading by all the
countries within the European Union under its European Trading Scheme (EU
ETS) with the European Commission as its validating authority. From 2008, EU
participants must link with the other developed countries who ratified Annex I of
the protocol, and trade the six most significant anthropogenic greenhouse gases. In
the United States, which has not ratified Kyoto, and Australia, whose ratification
came into force in March 2008, similar schemes are being considered.
The Kyoto Protocol provides for three mechanisms that enable countries or
operators in developed countries to acquire greenhouse gas reduction credits
Raising the price of carbon will achieve four goals. First, it will provide signals to
consumers about what goods and services are high-carbon ones and should
therefore be used more sparingly. Second, it will provide signals to producers
about which inputs use more carbon (such as coal and oil) and which use less or
none (such as natural gas or nuclear power), thereby inducing firms to substitute
low-carbon inputs. Third, it will give market incentives for inventors and
innovators to develop and introduce low-carbon products and processes that can
replace the current generation of technologies. Fourth, and most important, a high
carbon price will economize on the information that is required to do all three of
these tasks. Through the market mechanism, a high carbon price will raise the price
of products according to their carbon content. Ethical consumers today, hoping to
minimize their “carbon footprint,” have little chance of making an accurate
calculation of the relative carbon use in, say, driving 250 miles as compared with
flying 250 miles. A harmonized carbon tax would raise the price of a good
proportionately to exactly the amount of CO 2 that is emitted in all the stages of
production that are involved in producing that good. If 0.01 of a ton of carbon
emissions results from the wheat growing and the milling and the trucking and the
baking of a loaf of bread, then a tax of $30 per ton carbon will raise the price of
bread by $0.30. The “carbon footprint” is automatically calculated by the price
system. Consumers would still not know how much of the price is due to carbon
emissions, but they could make their decisions confident that they are paying for
the social cost of their carbon footprint.
Nordhaus has suggested, based on the social cost of carbon emissions, that an
optimal price of carbon is around $30(US) per ton and will need to increase with
inflation.
The social cost of carbon is the additional damage caused by an additional ton of
carbon emissions. ... The optimal carbon price, or optimal carbon tax, is the market
price (or carbon tax) on carbon emissions that balances the incremental costs of
reducing carbon emissions with the incremental benefits of reducing climate
damages. ... [I]f a country wished to impose a carbon tax of $30 per ton of carbon,
this would involve a tax on gasoline of about 9 cents per gallon. Similarly, the tax
on coal-generated electricity would be about 1 cent per kWh, or 10 percent of the
current retail price. At current levels of carbon emissions in the United States, a tax
of $30 per ton of carbon would generate $50 billion of revenue per year.
For example, consider a business that owns a factory putting out 100,000 tonnes of
greenhouse gas emissions in a year. Its government is an Annex I country that
enacts a law to limit the emissions that the business can produce. So the factory is
given a quota of say 80,000 tonnes per year. The factory either reduces its
emissions to 80,000 tonnes or is required to purchase carbon credits to offset the
excess. After costing up alternatives the business may decide that it is
uneconomical or infeasible to invest in new machinery for that year. Instead it may
choose to buy carbon credits on the open market from organizations that have been
approved as being able to sell legitimate carbon credits.
the price may be more likely to be perceived as fair by those paying it.
Investors in credits may have more control over their own costs.
the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol help to ensure that all
investment goes into genuine sustainable carbon reduction schemes through an
internationally agreed validation process.
some proponents state that if correctly implemented a target level of
emission reductions may somehow be achieved with more certainty, while
under a tax the actual emissions might vary over time.
it may provide a framework for rewarding people or companies who plant
trees or otherwise meet standards exclusively recognized as "green."
The first step in determining whether or not a carbon project has legitimately led to
the reduction of real, measurable, permanent emissions is understanding the CDM
methodology process. This is the process by which project sponsors submit,
through a Designated Operational Entity (DOE), their concepts for emissions
reduction creation. The CDM Executive Board, with the CDM Methodology Panel
and their expert advisors, review each project and decide how and if they do indeed
result in reductions that are additional
It is also important for any carbon credit (offset) to prove a concept called
additionality. The concept of additionality addresses the question of whether the
project would have happened anyway, even in the absence of revenue from carbon
credits. Only carbon credits from projects that are "additional to" the business-as-
usual scenario represent a net environmental benefit. Carbon projects that yield
strong financial returns even in the absence of revenue from carbon credits; or that
are compelled by regulations; or that represent common practice in an industry are
usually not considered additional, although a full determination of additionality
requires specialist review.
It is generally agreed that voluntary carbon offset projects must also prove
additionality in order to ensure the legitimacy of the environmental stewardship
claims resulting from the retirement of the carbon credit (offset). According the
World Resources Institute/World Business Council for Sustainable Development
(WRI/WBCSD) : "GHG emission trading programs operate by capping the
emissions of a fixed number of individual facilities or sources. Under these
programs, tradable 'offset credits' are issued for project-based GHG reductions that
occur at sources not covered by the program. Each offset credit allows facilities
whose emissions are capped to emit more, in direct proportion to the GHG
reductions represented by the credit. The idea is to achieve a zero net increase in
GHG emissions, because each tonne of increased emissions is 'offset' by project-
based GHG reductions. The difficulty is that many projects that reduce GHG
emissions (relative to historical levels) would happen regardless of the existence of
a GHG program and without any concern for climate change mitigation. If a
project 'would have happened anyway,' then issuing offset credits for its GHG
reductions will actually allow a positive net increase in GHG emissions,
undermining the emissions target of the GHG program. Additionality is thus
critical to the success and integrity of GHG programs that recognize project-based
GHG reductions."
Criticisms
The Kyoto mechanism is the only internationally agreed mechanism for regulating
carbon credit activities, and, crucially, includes checks for additionality and overall
effectiveness. Its supporting organisation, the UNFCCC, is the only organisation
with a global mandate on the overall effectiveness of emission control systems,
although enforcement of decisions relies on national co-operation. The Kyoto
trading period only applies for five years between 2008 and 2012. The first phase
of the EU ETS system started before then, and is expected to continue in a third
phase afterwards, and may co-ordinate with whatever is internationally agreed at
but there is general uncertainty as to what will be agreed in Post–Kyoto Protocol
negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions. As business investment often operates
over decades, this adds risk and uncertainty to their plans. As several countries
responsible for a large proportion of global emissions (notably USA, Australia,
China) have avoided mandatory caps, this also means that businesses in capped
countries may perceive themselves to be working at a competitive disadvantage
against those in uncapped countries as they are now paying for their carbon costs
directly.
A key concept behind the cap and trade system is that national quotas should be
chosen to represent genuine and meaningful reductions in national output of
emissions. Not only does this ensure that overall emissions are reduced but also
that the costs of emissions trading are carried fairly across all parties to the trading
system. However, governments of capped countries may seek to unilaterally
weaken their commitments, as evidenced by the 2006 and 2007 National
Allocation Plans for several countries in the EU ETS, which were submitted late
and then were initially rejected by the European Commission for being too lax
The benchmark 1990 emission levels were accepted by the Conference of the
Parties of UNFCCC (decision 2/CP.3) were the values of "global warming
potential" calculated for the IPCC Second Assessment Report.[6] These figures are
used for converting the various greenhouse gas emissions into
comparable CO2equivalents (CO2-eq) when computing overall sources and sinks.
The Protocol allows for several "flexible mechanisms", such asemissions trading,
the clean development mechanism (CDM) andjoint implementation to
allow Annex I countries to meet their GHG emission limitations by purchasing
GHG emission reductions credits from elsewhere, through financial exchanges,
projects that reduce emissions in non-Annex I countries, from other Annex I
countries, or from annex I countries with excess allowances.
EU-countries like Greece,Spain,Ireland and Sweden have not committed themselves to any
reduction while France has committed itself not to expand its emissions (0% reduction) in the
internal-EU distribution agreement. This agreement ensures a 8% reduction for the EU-region as
a whole in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol. Greenland has only committed itself through
Denmark. However Greenland has not committed itself to a reduction towards Denmark. But
might do it in the next period.
Overview map Of States obligated by the Kyoto Protocol as of 2010. Green
countries = Those of the Annex I countries who are fully obligated (also called
Annex II countries). Yellow countries = Annex I countries who only are obligated
within some freedom as to their requirements in the protocol. Also called Countries
with Economics in Transition (EIT)). Red countries = are not obligated by the
Kyoto Protocol. Are either countries who have Non-annex 1 status in the protocol,
and thereby are not obligated or countries that have not signed the protocol yet
BACKGROUND
The view that human activities are likely responsible for most of the observed
increase in global mean temperature ("global warming") since the mid-20 th century
is an accurate reflection of current scientific thinking (NRC, 2001, p. 3, 2008,
p. 2).Human-induced warming of the climate is expected to continue
IPCC (2007) produced a range of projections of what the future increase in global
mean temperature might be. Projections spanned a range due to socio-economic
uncertainties, e.g., over future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels, and
uncertainties with regard to physical science aspects, e.g., the climate sensitivity.
For the time period 2090-2099, measured from global mean temperature in the
period 1980-1999, the "likely" range (as assessed to have a greater than 66%
probability of being correct, based on expert judgement) across the
sixSRES "marker" emissions scenarios was projected as an increase in global mean
temperature of 1.1 to 6.4 °C.
RATIFICATION PROCESS
Article 25 of the Protocol specifies that the Protocol enters into force "on the
ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention,
incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at least 55%
of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Annex I countries, have
deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession."
The EU and its Member States ratified the Protocol in May 2002. [10] Of the two
conditions, the "55 parties" clause was reached on 23 May 2002
when Iceland ratified the Protocol. The ratification by Russia on 18 November
2004 satisfied the "55%" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective 16
February 2005, after the required lapse of 90 days.
OBJECTIVES
The objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climate system.
The objective of the Kyoto climate change conference was to establish a legally
binding international agreement, whereby all the participating nations commit
themselves to tackling the issue of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions.
The target agreed upon was an average reduction of 5.2% from 1990 levels by the
year 2012. According to the treaty, in 2012, Annex I countries must have fulfilled
their obligations of reduction of greenhouse gases emissions established for
the first commitment period (2008–2012) (see Annex B of the Protocol). The
Protocol expires at the end of 2012.
Under the Protocol, only the Annex I countries have committed themselves to
national or joint reduction targets, (formally called "quantified emission limitation
and reduction objectives" (QELRO) - Article 4.1) that range from a joint reduction
of 8% for the European Union and others, to 7% for the United States (non-binding
as the US is not a signatory), 6% for Japan and 0% for Russia. The treaty permits
emission increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland. Emission limits do not
include emissions by international aviation and shipping.
38 of the 39 Annex I countries have agreed to cap their emissions in this way, two
others are required to do so under their conditions of accession into the EU, and
one more (Belarus) is seeking to become an Annex I country.
Flexible mechanisms
The Protocol defines three "flexibility mechanisms" that can be used by Annex I
countries in meeting their emission reduction commitments (Bashmakov et al..,
2001, p. 402). The flexibility mechanisms are International Emissions Trading
(IET), the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI).
IET allows Annex I countries to "trade" their emissions (Assigned Amount Units,
AAUs, or "allowances" for short). For IET, the economic basis for providing this
flexibility is that the marginal cost of emission abatement differs among countries.
Trade could potentially allow the Annex I countries to meet their emission
reduction commitments at a reduced cost. This is because trade allows emissions to
be abated first in countries where the costs of abatement are lowest, thus increasing
the efficiency of the Kyoto agreement.
The CDM and JI are called "project-based mechanisms," in that they generate
emission reductions from projects. The difference between IET and the project-
based mechanisms is that IET is based on the setting of a quantitative restriction of
emissions, while the CDM and JI are based on the idea of "production" of emission
reductions (Toth et al.., 2001, p. 660). The CDM is designed to encourage
production of emission reductions in non-Annex I countries, while JI encourages
production of emission reductions in Annex I countries.
The production of emission reductions generated by the CDM and JI can be used
by Annex B countries in meeting their emission reduction commitments. The
emission reductions produced by the CDM and JI are both measured against a
hypothetical baseline of emissions that would have occurred in the absence of a
particular emission reduction project. The emission reductions produced by the
CDM are calledCertified Emission Reductions (CERs); reductions produced by JI
are called Emission Reduction Units (ERUs). The reductions are called "credits"
because they are emission reductions credited against a hypothetical baseline of
emissions
Joint Implementation
The formal crediting period for Joint Implementation (JI) was aligned with the first
commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and did not start until January 2008
(Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 20). In November 2008, only 22 JI projects had been
officially approved and registered. The total projected emission savings from JI by
2012 are about one tenth that of the CDM. Russia accounts for about two-thirds of
these savings, with the remainder divided up roughly equally between the Ukraine
and the EU's New Member States. Emission savings include cuts in methane, HFC,
and N2O emissions.
"After 10 days of tough negotiations, ministers and other high-level officials from
160 countries reached agreement this morning on a legally binding Protocol under
which industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse
gases by 5.2%. The agreement aims to lower overall emissions from a group of
six greenhouse gases by 2008–12, calculated as an average over these five years.
Cuts in the three most important gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4),
and nitrous oxide (N2O) – will be measured against a base year of 1990. Cuts in
three long-lived industrial gases
– hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur
hexafluoride (SF6) – can be measured against either a 1990 or 1995 baseline."
National limitations range from 8% reductions for the European Union and others,
to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan, 0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for
Australia and 10% for Iceland.
Emissions
Per-capita emissions are a country's total emissions divided by its population
(Banuri et al.., 1996, p. 95).[21] Per-capita emissions in the industrialized countries
are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries (Grubb,
2003, p. 144). This is one reason industrialized countries accepted responsibility
for leading climate change efforts in the Kyoto negotiations. In Kyoto, the
countries that took on quantified commitments for the first period (2008–12)
corresponded roughly to those with per-capita emissions in 1990 of two tonnes of
carbon or higher. In 2005, the top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG
emissions (PBL, 2010. See also the notes in the following section on the top-ten
emitters in 2005). Countries with a Kyoto target made up 20% of total GHG
emissions.
Another way of measuring GHG emissions is to measure the total emissions that
have accumulated in the atmosphere over time (IEA, 2007, p. 199). Over a long
time period, cumulative emissions provide an indication of a country's total
contribution to GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Over the 1900-2005 period,
the US was the world's largest cumulative emitter of energy-related CO 2 emissions,
and accounted for 30% of total cumulative emissions (IEA, 2007, p. 201). The
second largest emitter was the EU, at 23%; the third largest was China, at 8%;
fourth was Japan, at 4%; fifth was India, at 2%. The rest of the world accounted for
33% of global, cumulative, energy-related CO2emissions.
Top-ten emitters
What follows is a ranking of the world's top ten emitters of GHGs for 2005 (MNP,
2007).[25] The first figure is the country's or region's emissions as a percentage of
the global total. The second figure is the country's/region's per-capita emissions, in
units of tons of GHG per-capita:
Notes
Financial commitments
The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay
billions of dollars, and supply technology to other countries for climate-related
studies and projects. The principle was originally agreed in UNFCCC.
Revisions
The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the sixth Conference of
Parties (COP). COP6 attempted to resolve these issues at its meeting in the
Hague in late 2000, but was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes between
the European Union on the one hand (which favoured a tougher agreement) and the
United States, Canada, Japan and Australia on the other (which wanted the
agreement to be less demanding and more flexible).
In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6bis) was held
in Bonn where the required decisions were adopted. After some concessions, the
supporters of the protocol (led by the European Union) managed to
get Japan and Russia in as well by allowing more use ofcarbon dioxide sinks.
The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP1) was held
in Montreal from 28 November to 9 December 2005, along with the 11th
conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP11). See United Nations Climate
Change Conference.
The 3 December 2007, Australia ratified the protocol during the first day of the
COP13 in Bali.
Enforcement
If the enforcement branch determines that an annex I country is not in compliance
with its emissions limitation, then that country is required to make up the
difference plus an additional 30%. In addition, that country will be suspended from
making transfers under an emissions trading program.
Negotiations
Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC commits industrialized countries to "[take] the lead" in
reducing emissions (Grubb, 2003, p. 144). The initial aim was for industrialized
countries to stabilize their emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000. The failure of
key industrialized countries to move in this direction was a principal reason why
Kyoto moved to binding commitments.
At the first UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in Berlin, the G77 (a coalition of
77 developing nations within the UN) was able to push for a mandate where it was
recognized that (Liverman, 2008, p. 12):
This mandate was recognized in the Kyoto Protocol in that developing countries
were not subject to emission reduction commitments in the first Kyoto
commitment period. However, the large potential for growth in developing country
emissions made negotiations on this issue tense (Grubb, 2003, p. 145-146). In the
final agreement, the Clean Development Mechanism was designed to limit
emissions in developing countries, but in such a way that developing countries do
not bear the costs for limiting emissions. The general assumption was that
developing countries would face quantitative commitments in later commitment
periods, and at the same time, developed countries would meet their first round
commitments.
Base year
The choice of the 1990 main base year remains in Kyoto, as it does in the original
Framework Convention. The desire to move to historical emissions was rejected on
the basis that good data was not available prior to 1990. The 1990 base year also
favoured several powerful interests including the UK, Germany and Russia
(Liverman, 2008, p. 12). This is because the UK and Germany had high
CO2 emissions in 1990.
In the UK following 1990, emissions had declined because of a switch from coal to
gas ("dash for gas"), which has lower emissions than coal. This was due to the
UK's privatization of coal mining and its switch to natural gas supported by North
sea reserves. Germany benefitted from the 1990 base year because of its
reunification between West and East Germany. East Germany's emissions fell
dramatically following the collapse of East German industry after the fall of the
Berlin Wall. Germany could therefore take credit for the resultant decline in
emissions.
Japan promoted the idea of flexible baselines, and favoured a base year of 1995 for
HFCs. Their HFC emissions had grown in the early 1990s as a substitute for CFCs
banned in the Montreal Protocol (Liverman, 2008, p. 13). Some of the former
Soviet satellites wanted a base year to reflect their highest emissions prior to their
industrial collapse.
EIT countries are privileged by being able to choose their base-year nearly freely.
However the oldest base-year accepted is 1986.
Emissions cuts
The G77 wanted strong uniform emission cuts across the developed world of 15%
(Liverman, 2008, p. 13). Countries, such as the US, made suggestions to reduce
their responsibility to reduce emissions. These suggestions included:
The EU initially argued for only three GHGs to be included – CO2, CH4, and N2O –
with other gases such as HFCs regulated separately (Liverman, 2008, p. 13). The
EU also wanted to have a "bubble" commitment, whereby it could make a
collective commitment that allowed some EU members to increase their emissions,
while others cut theirs. The most vulnerable nations – the Association of Small
Island States (AOSIS) – pushed for deep uniform cuts by developed nations, with
the goal of having emissions reduced to the greatest possible extent.
The final days of negotiation of the Protocol saw a clash between the EU and the
US and Japan (Grubb, 2003, p. 149). The EU aimed for flat-rate reductions in the
range of 10-15% below 1990 levels, while the US and Japan supported reductions
of 0-5%. Countries that had supported differentiation had different ideas as to how
it should be calculated, and many different indicators were proposed: relating to
GDP, energy intensity (energy use per unit of economic output), etc. According to
Grubb (2003, p. 149), the only common theme of these indicators was that each
proposal suited the interests of the country making the proposal.
The final commitments negotiated in the Protocol are the result of last minute
political compromises (Liverman, 2008, p. 13-14). These include an 8% cut from
the 1990 base year for the EU, 7% for the US, 6% for Canada and Japan, no cut for
Russia, and an 8% increase for Australia. This sums to an overall cut of 5.2%
below 1990 levels. Since Australia and the US did not ratify the treaty (although
Australia has since done), the cut is reduced from 5.2% to about 2%.
Considering the growth of some economies and the collapse of others since 1990,
the range of implicit targets is much greater (Aldy et al.., 2003, p. 7). The US faced
a cut of about 30% below "business-as-usual" (BAU) emissions (i.e., predicted
emissions should there be no attempt to limit emissions), while Russia and other
economies in transition faced targets that allowed substantial increases in their
emissions above BAU. On the other hand, Grubb (2003, p. 151) pointed out that
the US, having per-capita emissions twice that of most other OECD countries, was
vulnerable to the suggestion that it had huge potential for making reductions. From
this viewpoint, the US was obliged to cut emissions back more than other
countries.
Flexibility mechanisms
Negotiations over the flexibility mechanisms included in the Protocol proved
controversial (Grubb, 2003, p. 153). Japan and some EU member states wanted to
ensure that any emissions trading would be competitive and transparent. Their
intention was to prevent the US from using its political leverage to gain
preferential access to the likely surplus in Russian emission allowances. The EU
was also anxious to prevent the US from avoiding domestic action to reduce its
emissions. Developing countries were concerned that the US would use flexibility
to its own advantage, over the interests of weaker countries.
Compliance
The protocol defines a mechanism of "compliance" as a "monitoring compliance
with the commitments and penalties for non-compliance." According to Grubb
(2003, p. 157), the explicit consequences of non-compliance of the treaty are weak
compared to domestic law. Yet, the compliance section of the treaty was highly
contested in the Marrakesh Accords. According to Grubb (2003), Japan made some
unsuccessful efforts to "water-down" the compliance package.
In total, Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC (including the US) managed a cut of
3.3% in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2004 (UNFCCC, 2007, p. 11). In 2007,
projections indicated rising emissions of 4.2% between 1990 and 2010. This
projection assumed that no further mitigation action would be taken. The reduction
in the 1990s was driven significantly by economic restructuring in the economies-
in-transition (EITs. See the following section for the list of EITs). Emission
reductions in the EITs had little to do with climate change policy (Carbon Trust,
2009, p. 24). Some reductions in Annex I emissions have occurred due to policy
measures, such as promoting energy efficiency (UNFCCC, 2007, p. 11).
Progress towards targets
Progress toward the emission reduction commitments set in the Kyoto Protocol has
been mixed. World Bank (2008, p. 6) reported that there were significant
differences in performance across individual countries:
KP Parties
According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL, 2009), the
industrialized countries with a Kyoto target will, as a group, probably meet their
emission limitation requirements.[34] Collectively, this was for a 4% reduction
relative to 1990 levels. A linear extrapolation of the 2000-2005 emissions trend led
to a projected emission reduction in 2010 of almost 11%. Including the potential
contribution of CDM projects, which may account for emissions reductions of
approximately 500 megatonnes CO2-eq per year, the reduction might be as large as
15%.
The expected reduction of 11% was attributed to the limited increase in emissions
in OECD countries, but was particularly due to the large reduction of about 40%
until 1999 in the EITs. The reduction in emissions for the smaller EITs aids the
EU-27 in meeting their collective target. The EU expects that it will meet its
collective target of an 8% reduction for the EU-15. This reduction includes:
CDM and JI projects, which are planned to contribute 2.5% towards the
target;
carbon storage in forests and soils (carbon sinks), which contribute another
0.9%.
Japan expects to meet its Kyoto target, which includes a 1.6% reduction from
CDM projects and a 3.9% reduction from carbon storage, contributing to a total
reduction of 5.5%. In other OECD countries, emissions have increased. In Canada,
Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland, emissions have increased by 25%
compared to the base year, while in Norway, the increase was 9%. In the view of
PBL (2009), these countries will only be able to meet their targets by purchasing
sufficient CDM credits or by buying emissions ("hot air") from EIT countries.
Non-KP Parties
Emissions in the US have increased 16% since 1990. According to PBL (2009), the
US will not meet its original Kyoto target of a 6% reduction in emissions.
Non-Annex I
UNFCCC (2005) compiled and synthesized information reported to it by non-
Annex I Parties. Most non-Annex I Parties belonged in the low-income group, with
very few classified as middle-income. They are not obligated by the limits of
emissions in the Kyoto Protocol (p. 4). Fast growing economy countries like
China, South Africa, India and Brazil are still in this non-obligated group. Most
Parties included information on policies relating to sustainable development.
Sustainable development priorities mentioned by non-Annex I Parties
includedpoverty alleviation and access to basic education and health care (p. 6).
Many non-Annex I Parties are making efforts to amend and update
their environmental legislation to include global concerns such as climate change
(p. 7).
A few Parties, e.g., South Africa and Iran, stated their concern over how efforts to
reduce emissions could affect their economies. The economies of these countries
are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing, and
export of fossil fuels.
Emissions
GHG emissions, excluding land use change and forestry (LUCF), reported by 122
non-Annex I Parties for the year 1994 or the closest year reported, totalled
11.7 billion tonnes (billion = 1,000,000,000) of CO2-eq. CO2 was the largest
proportion of emissions (63%), followed bymethane (26%) and nitrous
oxide (N2O) (11%).
The energy sector was the largest source of emissions for 70 Parties, whereas for
45 Parties the agriculture sector was the largest. Per capita emissions (in tonnes of
CO2-eq, excluding LUCF) averaged 2.8 tonnes for the 122 non-Annex I Parties.
Trends
In several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India,
Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly
(PBL, 2009). For example, emissions in China have risen strongly over the 1990-
2005 period, often by more than 10% year. Emissions per-capita in non-Annex I
countries are still, for the most part, much lower than in industrialized countries.
Non-Annex I countries do not have quantitative emission reduction commitments,
but they are committed to mitigation actions. China, for example, has had a
national policy programme to reduce emissions growth, which included the closure
of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants.
World Bank (2010, p. 233) commented on how the Kyoto Protocol had only had a
slight effect on curbing global emissions growth. The treaty was negotiated in
1997, but by 2005, energy-related emissions had grown 24%. World Bank (2010)
also stated that the treaty had provided only limited financial support to developing
countries to assist them in reducing their emissions and adapting to climate change.
Some of the criticism of the Protocol has been based on the idea of climate justice
(Liverman, 2008, p. 14). This has particularly centred on the balance between the
low emissions and high vulnerability of the developing world to climate change,
compared to high emissions in the developed world.
Some environmentalists have supported the Kyoto Protocol because it is "the only
game in town," and possibly because they expect that future emission reduction
commitments may demand more stringent emission reductions (Aldy et al.., 2003,
p. 9). In 2001, sixteen national science academies[37] stated that ratification of the
Protocol represented a "small but essential first step towards stabilising
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases." Some environmentalists and
scientists have criticized the existing commitments for being too weak (Grubb,
2000, p. 5)
The lack of quantitative emission commitments for developing countries led to the
governments of the United States, and also Australia under Prime Minister John
Howard deciding not to ratify the treaty (Stern 2007, p. 478). Australia, under
former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, has since ratified the treaty. Despite
ratification, Australia has thus far not implemented nany national legislation to
bring itself into compliance.
SUCCESSOR
In the non-binding 'Washington Declaration' agreed on 16 February 2007, Heads of
governments from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan,Russia, United
Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa agreed
in principle on the outline of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. They envisage a
global cap-and-trade system that would apply to both industrialized nations
and developing countries, and hoped that this would be in place by 2009.
A round of climate change talks under the auspices of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Vienna Climate Change
Talks 2007) concluded in 31 August 2007 with agreement on key elements for an
effective international response to climate change.
A key feature of the talks was a United Nations report that showed how efficient
energy use could yield significant cuts in emissions at low cost.
The talks were meant to set the stage for a major international meeting to be held
in Nusa Dua, Bali, which started on 3 December 2007.
The Conference was held in December 2008 in Poznań, Poland. One of the main
topics on this meeting was the discussion of a possible implementation of
avoided deforestation also known as Reducing emissions from deforestation and
forest degradation (REDD) into the future Kyoto Protocol.
ORGANIZATION
The Copenhagen Climate Council was founded in 2007 by the leading independent
think tank in Scandinavia, Monday Morning, head-quartered
in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Purpose
The purpose of the Copenhagen Climate Council is to create global awareness of
the importance of the UN Climate Summit (COP15) in Copenhagen, December
2009. Leading up to this pivotal UN meeting, the Copenhagen Climate Council
works on presenting innovative yet achievable solutions to climate change, as well
as assess what is required to make a new global treaty effective. The Council will
seek to promote constructive dialogue between government and business, so that
when the world's political leaders and negotiators meet in Copenhagen, they will
do so armed with the very best arguments for establishing a treaty that can be
supported by global business. By promoting and demonstrating innovative,
positive, and meaningful business leadership and ideas, the Copenhagen Climate
Council aims to demonstrate that achieving an effective global climate treaty is not
only possible, but necessary. The strategy is built upon the following principles:
Manifesto
Published in November 2007, on the eve of the UN COP13 Climate Change
Conference in Bali – the instigation night of the Bali Roadmap. The document
outlines what the Council believes is required to tackle climate change and how
this can be achieved through a new global treaty. The Manifesto articulates a clear
goal for the maximum level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by 2050. The
document will serve as input at the World Business Summit on Climate Change,
outlining key elements for further discussion and inclusion in the recommendations
to be delivered to the UN Summit.
Membership
Copenhagen Climate Council comprises 30 global climate
leaders [1] representing business, science, and public policy from all parts of the
world.