Pronostico ùltimo Valor

periodo unidades a ft et error DAM 0.31

1 7.53 7.53
2 7.7 7.53 0.17
3 7.47 7.7 0.23 ULTIMO VALOR
4 7.27 7.47 0.2 14
1 7.37 7.27 0.1
12
2 7.13 7.37 0.24
3 7.4 7.13 0.27 10
4 8.33 7.4 0.93 8
1 8.83 8.33 0.5
2 10.43 8.83 1.6 6
3 12.2 10.43 1.77 4
4 12.77 12.2 0.57
1 12.43 12.77 0.34 2
2 12.23 12.43 0.2 0
3 11.7 12.23 0.53 1 5 9 1 3 1 7 21 25 2 9 3 3 37 41 45 49 5 3 5 7 61 65 6 9 7 3 77 81
4 11.2 11.7 0.5
1 11.27 11.2 0.07 unidades a ft
2 11.47 11.27 0.2
3 11.3 11.47 0.17
4 11.17 11.3 0.13 Conclusion Se puede determinar que se acepta el pronostico ya que
1 11 11.17 0.17 los datos pronosticados son similares a los datos reales
2 10.63 11 0.37 según lo analisado a la grafica, por otro lado el Errror Dam
3 10.27 10.63 0.36 en este metodo es el menor. Por estas dos razones
tenemos evidencia validad para decir que este es el
4 10.2 10.27 0.07 metodo mas adecuado para determinar el pronostico en el
1 9.67 10.2 0.53 periodo 85
2 9.6 9.67 0.07
3 9.6 9.6 0
4 9.5 9.6 0.1
1 9.5 9.5 0
2 9.03 9.5 0.47
3 8.7 9.03 0.33
4 8.13 8.7 0.57
1 7.87 8.13 0.26
2 7.67 7.87 0.2
3 7.8 7.67 0.13
4 7.73 7.8 0.07
1 7.57 7.73 0.16
2 7.57 7.57 0
3 7.33 7.57 0.24
4 7.57 7.33 0.24
1 7.63 7.57 0.06
2 7.6 7.63 0.03
3 8.17 7.6 0.57
4 9.2 8.17 1.03
1 10.17 9.2 0.97
2 10.33 10.17 0.16
3 10.4 10.33 0.07
4 10.37 10.4 0.03
1 10.6 10.37 0.23
2 11 10.6 0.4
3 11.4 11 0.4
4 11.73 11.4 0.33
1 11.07 11.73 0.66
2 11.67 11.07 0.6
3 11.47 11.67 0.2
4 11.3 11.47 0.17
1 10.97 11.3 0.33
2 10.63 10.97 0.34
3 10.1 10.63 0.53
4 9.67 10.1 0.43
1 9.53 9.67 0.14
2 9.47 9.53 0.06
3 9.5 9.47 0.03
4 9.27 9.5 0.23
1 9.5 9.27 0.23
2 9.43 9.5 0.07
3 9.7 9.43 0.27
4 9.9 9.7 0.2
1 9.43 9.9 0.47
2 9.3 9.43 0.13
3 8.87 9.3 0.43
4 8.77 8.87 0.1
1 8.6 8.77 0.17
2 8.33 8.6 0.27
3 8.17 8.33 0.16
4 8.03 8.17 0.14
1 7.9 8.03 0.13
2 7.87 7.9 0.03
3 7.53 7.87 0.34
4 6.93 7.53 0.6
1 6.8 6.93 0.13
2 6.7 6.8 0.1
3 6.93 6.7 0.23
4 6.87 6.93 0.06
6.87
 Pronostico Promedio
periodo unidades a ft et error DAM 1.32
1 7.53 7.53
2 7.7 7.53 0.17
3 7.47 7.62 0.15 PRONOSTIC
4 7.27 7.57 0.30
5 7.37 7.49 0.12 14
6 7.13 7.47 0.34
7 7.4 7.41 0.01
8 8.33 7.41 0.92
9 8.83 7.53 1.31 12
10 10.43 7.67 2.76
11 12.2 7.95 4.25
12 12.77 8.33 4.44
13 12.43 8.70 3.73
10
14 12.23 8.99 3.24
15 11.7 9.22 2.48
16 11.2 9.39 1.81
17 11.27 9.50 1.77
8
18 11.47 9.60 1.87
19 11.3 9.71 1.59
20 11.17 9.79 1.38
21 11 9.86 1.14
6
22 10.63 9.91 0.72
23 10.27 9.95 0.32
24 10.2 9.96 0.24
25 9.67 9.97 0.30
4
26 9.6 9.96 0.36
27 9.6 9.95 0.35
28 9.5 9.93 0.43
29 9.5 9.92 0.42
30 9.03 9.90 0.87 2
31 8.7 9.87 1.17
32 8.13 9.84 1.71
33 7.87 9.78 1.91
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 13 141516171819202122 23 242526 27 28293031 32 333435 36 3738394041 4

unidades a
 2

34 7.67 9.72 2.05 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 13 141516171819202122 23 242526 27 28293031 32 333435 36 3738394041 4
35 7.8 9.66 1.86
36 7.73 9.61 1.88 unidades a
37 7.57 9.56 1.99
38 7.57 9.50 1.93
39 7.33 9.45 2.12
40 7.57 9.40 1.83
41 7.63 9.35 1.72
42 7.6 9.31 1.71 conclucion En la grafica podemos ver que los datos pronosticados no tienen
43 8.17 9.27 1.10 parecido a los datos reales y el error DAM es mayor que en el metod
44 9.2 9.25 0.05 valor mayor
45 10.17 9.24 0.93
46 10.33 9.26 1.07
47 10.4 9.29 1.11
48 10.37 9.31 1.06
49 10.6 9.33 1.27
50 11 9.36 1.64
51 11.4 9.39 2.01
52 11.73 9.43 2.30
53 11.07 9.48 1.59
54 11.67 9.51 2.16
55 11.47 9.55 1.92
56 11.3 9.58 1.72
57 10.97 9.61 1.36
58 10.63 9.64 0.99
59 10.1 9.65 0.45
60 9.67 9.66 0.01
61 9.53 9.66 0.13
62 9.47 9.66 0.19
63 9.5 9.66 0.16
64 9.27 9.65 0.38
65 9.5 9.65 0.15
66 9.43 9.64 0.21
67 9.7 9.64 0.06
68 9.9 9.64 0.26
69 9.43 9.65 0.22
70 9.3 9.64 0.34
71 8.87 9.64 0.77
72 8.77 9.63 0.86
73 8.6 9.62 1.02
74 8.33 9.60 1.27
75 8.17 9.58 1.41
76 8.03 9.57 1.54
77 7.9 9.55 1.65
78 7.87 9.52 1.65
79 7.53 9.50 1.97
80 6.93 9.48 2.55
81 6.8 9.45 2.65
82 6.7 9.41 2.71
83 6.93 9.38 2.45
84 6.87 9.35 2.48
9.32
 PRONOSTICO PROMEDIO

8 29303132 33 343536 37 38394041 42 434445 46 47 48495051 525354 55 56 57585960 61626364 65 66 6768 69 70 717273 74 75 7677 78 79 80818283 84

unidades a Pronostico
8 29303132 33 343536 37 38394041 42 434445 46 47 48495051 525354 55 56 57585960 61626364 65 66 6768 69 70 717273 74 75 7677 78 79 80818283 84

unidades a Pronostico

s datos pronosticados no tienen

DAM es mayor que en el metodo
ayor
 Pronostico Promedio Mòvil
periodo unidades a ft et n 4
1 7.53 7.53
2 7.7 7.7 error DAM 0.6109
3 7.47 7.47
4 7.27 7.27
1 7.37 7.49 0.12 PROMEDIO MOVIL
2 7.13 7.45 0.32
14
3 7.4 7.31 0.09
4 8.33 7.29 1.04
1 8.83 7.56 1.27
12
2 10.43 7.92 2.51
3 12.2 8.75 3.45
4 12.77 9.95 2.82
1 12.43 11.06 1.37 10
2 12.23 11.96 0.27
3 11.7 12.41 0.71
4 11.2 12.28 1.08 8
1 11.27 11.89 0.62
2 11.47 11.60 0.13
3 11.3 11.41 0.11 6
4 11.17 11.31 0.14
1 11 11.30 0.30
2 10.63 11.24 0.60 4
3 10.27 11.03 0.76
4 10.2 10.77 0.57
1 9.67 10.53 0.85
2
2 9.6 10.19 0.59
3 9.6 9.94 0.33
4 9.5 9.77 0.27
0
1 9.5 9.59 0.09 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 7
2 9.03 9.55 0.52
3 8.7 9.41 0.71
unidades a ft
4 8.13 9.18 1.05
1 7.87 8.84 0.97
2 7.67 8.43 0.76
3 7.8 8.09 0.29
4 7.73 7.87 0.14
1 7.57 7.77 0.20
2 7.57 7.69 0.12
3 7.33 7.67 0.34
4 7.57 7.55 0.02
1 7.63 7.51 0.12
2 7.6 7.53 0.07
3 8.17 7.53 0.64
4 9.2 7.74 1.46
1 10.17 8.15 2.02
2 10.33 8.79 1.55
3 10.4 9.47 0.93
4 10.37 10.03 0.35
1 10.6 10.32 0.28
2 11 10.43 0.58
3 11.4 10.59 0.81
4 11.73 10.84 0.89
1 11.07 11.18 0.11
2 11.67 11.30 0.37
3 11.47 11.47 0.00
4 11.3 11.49 0.18
1 10.97 11.38 0.41
2 10.63 11.35 0.72
3 10.1 11.09 0.99
4 9.67 10.75 1.08
1 9.53 10.34 0.81
2 9.47 9.98 0.51
3 9.5 9.69 0.19
4 9.27 9.54 0.27
1 9.5 9.44 0.06
2 9.43 9.44 0.01
3 9.7 9.43 0.27
4 9.9 9.48 0.43
1 9.43 9.63 0.20
2 9.3 9.62 0.32
3 8.87 9.58 0.71
4 8.77 9.38 0.61
1 8.6 9.09 0.49
2 8.33 8.89 0.56
3 8.17 8.64 0.47
4 8.03 8.47 0.44
1 7.9 8.28 0.38
2 7.87 8.11 0.24
3 7.53 7.99 0.46
4 6.93 7.83 0.90
1 6.8 7.56 0.76
2 6.7 7.28 0.58
3 6.93 6.99 0.06
4 6.87 6.84 0.03
6.83
6.83
6.90
6.85
OVIL

9 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82

ft
 Promedio Mòvil Ponderado
periodo unidades a ft et XT1 XT2 XT3 XT4
1 7.53 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
2 7.7
3 7.47 error DAM 0.50
4 7.27
1 7.37 7.44 0.07
2 7.13 7.39 0.26
3 7.4 7.26 0.14 MOVIL PONDERADO
4 8.33 7.30 1.03 14
1 8.83 7.72 1.12
2 10.43 8.22 2.21
3 12.2 9.23 2.97 12
4 12.77 10.61 2.16
1 12.43 11.74 0.69 10
2 12.23 12.29 0.06
3 11.7 12.40 0.70
4 11.2 12.11 0.91 8
1 11.27 11.68 0.41 UNIDADES unidades
2 11.47 11.43 0.04 Pronostic
6
3 11.3 11.38 0.08
4 11.17 11.34 0.17
1 11 11.28 0.28 4
2 10.63 11.16 0.53
3 10.27 10.92 0.65
2
4 10.2 10.61 0.41
1 9.67 10.39 0.72
2 9.6 10.05 0.45 0
3 9.6 9.81 0.21 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81
4 9.5 9.67 0.17
1 9.5 9.57 0.07 PERIODOS
2 9.03 9.53 0.50
3 8.7 9.32 0.62
4 8.13 9.04 0.91
1 7.87 8.62 0.75
2 7.67 8.23 0.56
3 7.8 7.93 0.13
4 7.73 7.81 0.08
1 7.57 7.75 0.18
2 7.57 7.67 0.10
3 7.33 7.63 0.30
4 7.57 7.49 0.08
1 7.63 7.50 0.13
2 7.6 7.55 0.05
3 8.17 7.58 0.59
4 9.2 7.83 1.37
1 10.17 8.41 1.76
2 10.33 9.22 1.11
3 10.4 9.84 0.56
4 10.37 10.21 0.16
1 10.6 10.35 0.25
2 11 10.46 0.54
3 11.4 10.69 0.71
4 11.73 11.02 0.71
1 11.07 11.37 0.30
2 11.67 11.33 0.34
3 11.47 11.48 0.01
4 11.3 11.48 0.18
1 10.97 11.40 0.43
2 10.63 11.24 0.61
3 10.1 10.95 0.85
4 9.67 10.55 0.88
1 9.53 10.12 0.59
2 9.47 9.80 0.33
3 9.5 9.59 0.09
4 9.27 9.51 0.24
1 9.5 9.41 0.09
2 9.43 9.43 0.00
3 9.7 9.43 0.27
4 9.9 9.54 0.36
1 9.43 9.71 0.28
2 9.3 9.63 0.33
3 8.87 9.50 0.63
4 8.77 9.21 0.44
1 8.6 8.97 0.37
2 8.33 8.78 0.45
3 8.17 8.55 0.38
4 8.03 8.36 0.33
1 7.9 8.19 0.29
2 7.87 8.04 0.17
3 7.53 7.94 0.41
4 6.93 7.76 0.83
1 6.8 7.40 0.60
2 6.7 7.09 0.39
3 6.93 6.86 0.07
4 6.87 6.84 0.03
6.85
 unidades a
Pronostico

73 77 81
 ESTACIONALIDAD SUAVIZADO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE
AÑO TRIMESTRE DATOS SES 1 x`t f`t SIN AJU f`t CON AJUS
1 7.53 7.53 7.556 7.556 7.53
2 7.7 7.53 7.704 7.56 7.55
1
3 7.47 7.70 7.466 7.70 7.71
4 7.27 7.47 7.270 7.47 7.47
1 7.37 7.27 7.395 7.27 7.25
2 7.13 7.37 7.134 7.39 7.39
2
3 7.4 7.13 7.396 7.13 7.14
4 8.33 7.40 8.330 7.40 7.40
1 8.83 8.33 8.860 8.33 8.30
2 10.43 8.83 10.436 8.86 8.85
3
3 12.2 10.43 12.193 10.43 10.44
4 12.77 12.20 12.770 12.19 12.19
1 12.43 12.77 12.472 12.77 12.73
2 12.23 12.43 12.237 12.47 12.47
4
3 11.7 12.23 11.694 12.24 12.24
4 11.2 11.70 11.200 11.69 11.69
1 11.27 11.20 11.308 11.20 11.16
2 11.47 11.27 11.477 11.31 11.30
5
3 11.3 11.47 11.294 11.48 11.48
4 11.17 11.30 11.170 11.29 11.29
1 11 11.17 11.037 11.17 11.13
2 10.63 11.00 10.636 11.04 11.03
6
3 10.27 10.63 10.264 10.64 10.64
4 10.2 10.27 10.200 10.26 10.27
1 9.67 10.20 9.703 10.20 10.17
2 9.6 9.67 9.606 9.70 9.70
7
3 9.6 9.60 9.595 9.61 9.61
4 9.5 9.60 9.500 9.59 9.60
1 9.5 9.50 9.532 9.50 9.47
2 9.03 9.50 9.035 9.53 9.53
8
3 8.7 9.03 8.695 9.04 9.04
4 8.13 8.70 8.130 8.70 8.70
1 7.87 8.13 7.897 8.13 8.10
2 7.67 7.87 7.674 7.90 7.89
9
3 7.8 7.67 7.796 7.67 7.68
4 7.73 7.80 7.730 7.80 7.80
1 7.57 7.73 7.596 7.73 7.70
2 7.57 7.57 7.574 7.60 7.59
10
3 7.33 7.57 7.326 7.57 7.58
4 7.57 7.33 7.570 7.33 7.33
1 7.63 7.57 7.656 7.57 7.54
2 7.6 7.63 7.604 7.66 7.65
11
3 8.17 7.60 8.166 7.60 7.61
4 9.2 8.17 9.200 8.16 8.17
1 10.17 9.20 10.205 9.20 9.17
2 10.33 10.17 10.336 10.20 10.20
12
12
3 10.4 10.33 10.394 10.34 10.34
4 10.37 10.40 10.370 10.39 10.39
1 10.6 10.37 10.636 10.37 10.33
2 11 10.60 11.006 10.64 10.63
13
3 11.4 11.00 11.394 11.01 11.01
4 11.73 11.40 11.730 11.39 11.39
1 11.07 11.73 11.108 11.73 11.69
2 11.67 11.07 11.677 11.11 11.10
14
3 11.47 11.67 11.464 11.68 11.68
4 11.3 11.47 11.300 11.46 11.46
1 10.97 11.30 11.007 11.30 11.26
2 10.63 10.97 10.636 11.01 11.00
15
3 10.1 10.63 10.094 10.64 10.64
4 9.67 10.10 9.670 10.10 10.10
1 9.53 9.67 9.562 9.67 9.64
2 9.47 9.53 9.475 9.56 9.56
16
3 9.5 9.47 9.495 9.48 9.48
4 9.27 9.50 9.270 9.49 9.50
1 9.5 9.27 9.532 9.27 9.24
2 9.43 9.50 9.435 9.53 9.53
17
3 9.7 9.43 9.695 9.44 9.44
4 9.9 9.70 9.900 9.69 9.69
1 9.43 9.90 9.462 9.90 9.87
2 9.3 9.43 9.305 9.46 9.46
18
3 8.87 9.30 8.865 9.31 9.31
4 8.77 8.87 8.770 8.87 8.87
1 8.6 8.77 8.629 8.77 8.74
2 8.33 8.60 8.335 8.63 8.62
19
3 8.17 8.33 8.166 8.34 8.34
4 8.03 8.17 8.030 8.17 8.17
1 7.9 8.03 7.927 8.03 8.00
2 7.87 7.90 7.875 7.93 7.92
20
3 7.53 7.87 7.526 7.87 7.88
4 6.93 7.53 6.930 7.53 7.53
1 6.8 6.93 6.823 6.93 6.91
2 6.7 6.80 6.704 6.82 6.82
21
3 6.93 6.70 6.926 6.70 6.71
4 6.87 6.93 6.870 6.93 6.93
1 6.87 6.823 6.87 6.85
2 6.87 6.704 6.82 6.82
3 6.87 6.926 6.70 6.71
4 6.87 6.870 6.93 6.93
PLE
xt fact estacio
et Et% ALFA 1-ALFA
9.30 0.997 0.999 0.001
0.17 2% 9.32 0.999
0.23 3% 9.33 1.001 Promedio total 9.33 SUMA ERROR
0.20 3% 9.33 1.000 Error (MAPE) 3.21% ERROR DAM
0.10 1%
0.24 3% Factor estacional = Promedio del periodo / promedio general
0.27 4% (x`t) Ajuste estacional = Valor real / Factor estacional
0.93 11% Aplicar suavizacion exponencial doble
0.50 6% Señal de rastreo = suma de errores (sin ABS) / suma de errores (ABS)
1.60 15% Señal de rastreo = -4, 4
1.77 15% MAPE (Error % absoluto) = Promedio de los errores %
0.57 4% Sirve para comparar los MAPE de diferentes alfa en el mismo pronostico
0.34 3%
0.20 2%
0.53 5%
0.50 4%
0.07 1%
0.20 2%
0.17 2%
0.13 1%
0.17 2%
AJUSTE ESTACIO
0.37 3%
0.36 4% DATOS SES 1 x`t f
0.07 1% 14.00
0.53 5%
0.07 1%
0.00 0%
0.10 1% 12.00
0.00 0%
0.47 5%
0.33 4%
0.57 7% 10.00
0.26 3%
0.20 3% Anti log(vf/vi)/n-1
0.13 2%
0.07 1% 8.00

0.16 2%
0.00 0%
0.24 3%
6.00
0.24 3%
0.06 1%
0.03 0%
0.57 7% 4.00
1.03 11%
0.97 10%
0.16 2%
2.00
 4.00

0.07 1% 2.00
0.03 0%
0.23 2%
0.40 4%
0.40 4% 0.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 4
0.33 3%
0.66 6%
0.60 5%
0.20 2%
0.17 2%
0.33 3%
0.34 3%
0.53 5%
0.43 4%
0.14 1%
0.06 1%
0.03 0%
0.23 2%
0.23 2%
0.07 1%
0.27 3%
0.20 2%
0.47 5%
0.13 1%
0.43 5%
0.10 1%
0.17 2%
0.27 3%
0.16 2%
0.14 2%
0.13 2%
0.03 0%
0.34 5%
0.60 9%
0.13 2%
0.10 1%
0.23 3%
0.06 1%
 25
0.3052

do / promedio general
/ Factor estacional

S) / suma de errores (ABS)

dio de los errores %

alfa en el mismo pronostico

CFE/MAD

AJUSTE ESTACIONAL
S SES 1 x`t f`t SIN AJU f`t CON AJUS
33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83
 ESTACIONALIDAD HOLT / SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL DOBLE
AÑO TRIMESTRE DATOS (yt) Lt (Promedio) Bt (Tendencia) FTM (pronostico) et et% ALFA
1 7.53 7.53 0 7.53 BETA
2 7.7 7.53 0.00 7.53 0.17 2% ERROR DAM
1
3 7.47 7.68 0.15 7.83 0.36 5% X0
4 7.27 7.51 -0.17 7.34 0.07 1%
1 7.37 7.28 -0.23 7.05 0.32 4%
2 7.13 7.33 0.06 7.39 0.26 4%
2
3 7.4 7.16 -0.17 6.98 0.42 6%
4 8.33 7.35 0.19 7.55 0.78 9%
1 8.83 8.24 0.89 9.13 0.30 3%
2 10.43 8.86 0.62 9.49 0.94 9%
3
3 12.2 10.32 1.46 11.78 0.42 3%
4 12.77 12.15 1.83 13.98 1.21 9%
1 12.43 12.91 0.75 13.66 1.23 10%
2 12.23 12.57 -0.34 12.23 0.00 0%
4
3 11.7 12.23 -0.34 11.89 0.19 2%
4 11.2 11.72 -0.51 11.21 0.01 0%
16.00
1 11.27 11.20 -0.52 10.68 0.59 5%
2 11.47 11.20 0.00 11.21 0.26 2%
5
3 11.3 11.44 0.24 11.68 0.38 3% 14.00
4 11.17 11.34 -0.10 11.24 0.07 1%
1 11 11.18 -0.16 11.01 0.01 0%
2 10.63 11.00 -0.18 10.82 0.19 2% 12.00
6
3 10.27 10.65 -0.35 10.30 0.03 0%
4 10.2 10.27 -0.38 9.90 0.30 3% 10.00
1 9.67 10.17 -0.11 10.06 0.39 4%
2 9.6 9.71 -0.45 9.26 0.34 4%
7 8.00
3 9.6 9.56 -0.15 9.41 0.19 2%
4 9.5 9.58 0.02 9.60 0.10 1%
1 9.5 9.51 -0.07 9.44 0.06 1% 6.00
2 9.03 9.49 -0.02 9.48 0.45 5%
8
3 8.7 9.08 -0.41 8.67 0.03 0%
4 8.13 8.70 -0.38 8.31 0.18 2% 4.00
1 7.87 8.15 -0.55 7.60 0.27 3%
9 2.00

0.00
 4.00

2 7.67 7.84 -0.31 7.53 0.14 2% 2.00

9
3 7.8 7.65 -0.19 7.47 0.33 4%
4 7.73 7.76 0.11 7.87 0.14 2%
1 7.57 7.75 -0.02 7.73 0.16 2% 0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
2 7.57 7.59 -0.16 7.43 0.14 2%
10
3 7.33 7.55 -0.03 7.52 0.19 3%
4 7.57 7.35 -0.20 7.15 0.42 6%
1 7.63 7.52 0.17 7.69 0.06 1%
2 7.6 7.64 0.11 7.75 0.15 2%
11
3 8.17 7.62 -0.02 7.60 0.57 7%
4 9.2 8.11 0.49 8.59 0.61 7%
1 10.17 9.13 1.03 10.16 0.01 0%
2 10.33 10.17 1.04 11.21 0.88 8%
12
3 10.4 10.43 0.26 10.69 0.29 3%
4 10.37 10.43 0.00 10.44 0.07 1%
1 10.6 10.38 -0.05 10.32 0.28 3%
2 11 10.57 0.19 10.76 0.24 2%
13
3 11.4 10.97 0.40 11.38 0.02 0%
4 11.73 11.40 0.42 11.82 0.09 1%
1 11.07 11.74 0.34 12.08 1.01 9%
2 11.67 11.18 -0.56 10.63 1.04 9%
14
3 11.47 11.55 0.37 11.92 0.45 4%
4 11.3 11.52 -0.03 11.49 0.19 2%
1 10.97 11.32 -0.20 11.12 0.15 1%
2 10.63 10.99 -0.33 10.65 0.02 0%
15
3 10.1 10.63 -0.35 10.28 0.18 2%
4 9.67 10.12 -0.51 9.61 0.06 1%
1 9.53 9.66 -0.46 9.21 0.32 3%
2 9.47 9.49 -0.17 9.32 0.15 2%
16
3 9.5 9.45 -0.04 9.41 0.09 1%
4 9.27 9.49 0.04 9.53 0.26 3%
1 9.5 9.30 -0.19 9.11 0.39 4%
2 9.43 9.46 0.16 9.61 0.18 2%
17
3 9.7 9.45 -0.01 9.45 0.25 3%
4 9.9 9.67 0.22 9.89 0.01 0%
 1 9.43 9.90 0.23 10.13 0.70 7%
2 9.3 9.51 -0.39 9.12 0.18 2%
18
3 8.87 9.28 -0.23 9.05 0.18 2%
4 8.77 8.89 -0.39 8.50 0.27 3%
1 8.6 8.74 -0.15 8.59 0.01 0%
2 8.33 8.60 -0.14 8.46 0.13 2%
19
3 8.17 8.34 -0.25 8.09 0.08 1%
4 8.03 8.16 -0.18 7.98 0.05 1%
1 7.9 8.02 -0.14 7.89 0.01 0%
2 7.87 7.90 -0.13 7.77 0.10 1%
20
3 7.53 7.86 -0.04 7.82 0.29 4%
4 6.93 7.56 -0.30 7.27 0.34 5%
1 6.8 6.97 -0.59 6.37 0.43 6%
2 6.7 6.75 -0.22 6.54 0.16 2%
21
3 6.93 6.68 -0.07 6.61 0.32 5%
4 6.87 6.89 0.21 7.11 0.24 3%
6.90 0.00 6.90
0.888 1-ALFA 0.1
1.000 1-BETA 0.0
0.284 ERROR % 3%
7.53 T1 0

HOLT
7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82

DATOS (yt) FTM (pronostico)

 ESTACIONALIDAD WINTERS / SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL TRIPLE (Multiplicativa)
AÑO TRIMESTRE DATOS (Yt) At Tt St Ft(Yt) et et%
-3 1
-2 1
-1 1
0 1
1 7.53 7.53 0 1 7.53 0.00 0% ALFA
2 7.7 7.6 0.0 1 7.67 0.03 0% BETA
1
3 7.47 7.5 0.0 1 7.52 0.05 1% GAMMA (Y)
4 7.27 7.3 0.0 1 7.27 0.00 0% ERROR DAM
1 7.37 7.4 0.0 1 7.34 0.03 0%
2 7.13 7.2 0.0 1 7.14 0.01 0%
2
3 7.4 7.4 0.0 1 7.27 0.13 2%
4 8.33 8.1 0.1 1 8.26 0.07 1%
1 8.83 8.6 0.1 1 8.74 0.09 1%
2 10.43 10.0 0.2 1 10.37 0.06 1%
3
3 12.2 11.5 0.4 1 12.72 0.52 4%
4 12.77 12.3 0.4 1 14.27 1.50 12%
1 12.43 12.3 0.4 1 12.97 0.54 4%
2 12.23 12.0 0.3 1 13.16 0.93 8%
4
3 11.7 11.4 0.2 1 12.75 1.05 9%
4 11.2 11.0 0.2 1 12.11 0.91 8%
1 11.27 11.2 0.1 1 11.43 0.16 1%
2 11.47 11.2 0.1 1 11.79 0.32 3%
5
3 11.3 11.1 0.1 1 11.77 0.47 4%
4 11.17 11.1 0.1 1 11.66 0.49 4%
1 11 11.0 0.1 1 11.17 0.17 2%
2 10.63 10.6 0.0 1 10.90 0.27 3%
6
3 10.27 10.3 0.0 1 10.43 0.16 2% 16.00
4 10.2 10.2 0.0 1 10.20 0.00 0% 14.00
1 9.67 9.8 0.0 1 9.77 0.10 1% 12.00
2 9.6 9.6 -0.1 1 9.53 0.07 1%
7 10.00
3 9.6 9.6 -0.1 1 9.42 0.18 2%

UNIDADES
4 9.5 9.5 -0.1 1 9.27 0.23 2% 8.00
1 9.5 9.6 0.0 1 9.39 0.11 1% 6.00

8 4.00
2.00
0.00
 10.00

UNIDADES
8.00
6.00
2 9.03 9.2 -0.1 1 9.01 0.02 0% 4.00
8
3 8.7 8.8 -0.1 1 8.50 0.20 2% 2.00
4 8.13 8.3 -0.2 1 7.70 0.43 5%
0.00
1 7.87 8.0 -0.2 1 7.77 0.10 1%
1 6 11 16 21 2 6 3
2 7.67 7.8 -0.2 1 7.34 0.33 4%
9
3 7.8 7.8 -0.1 1 7.28 0.52 7%
4 7.73 7.8 -0.1 1 7.14 0.59 8%
1 7.57 7.7 -0.1 1 7.44 0.13 2%
2 7.57 7.7 -0.1 1 7.28 0.29 4%
10
3 7.33 7.4 -0.1 1 6.98 0.35 5%
4 7.57 7.6 -0.1 1 7.02 0.55 7%
1 7.63 7.7 -0.1 1 7.45 0.18 2%
2 7.6 7.7 -0.1 1 7.41 0.19 3%
11
3 8.17 8.1 0.0 1 7.87 0.30 4%
4 9.2 8.8 0.0 1 9.05 0.15 2%
1 10.17 9.8 0.1 1 9.92 0.25 3%
2 10.33 10.3 0.2 1 10.54 0.21 2%
12
3 10.4 10.3 0.2 1 10.95 0.55 5%
4 10.37 10.1 0.1 1 11.05 0.68 7%
1 10.6 10.2 0.1 1 10.73 0.13 1%
2 11 10.8 0.2 1 11.15 0.15 1%
13
3 11.4 11.2 0.2 1 11.86 0.46 4%
4 11.73 11.4 0.2 1 12.51 0.78 7%
1 11.07 11.0 0.1 1 11.50 0.43 4%
2 11.67 11.3 0.2 1 11.88 0.21 2%
14
3 11.47 11.3 0.1 1 11.96 0.49 4%
4 11.3 11.1 0.1 1 11.88 0.58 5%
1 10.97 11.0 0.1 1 11.17 0.20 2%
2 10.63 10.5 0.0 1 10.92 0.29 3%
15
3 10.1 10.1 0.0 1 10.23 0.13 1%
4 9.67 9.7 -0.1 1 9.62 0.05 0%
1 9.53 9.6 -0.1 1 9.50 0.03 0%
2 9.47 9.4 -0.1 1 9.36 0.11 1%
16
3 9.5 9.5 -0.1 1 9.26 0.24 3%
4 9.27 9.3 -0.1 1 9.03 0.24 3%
 1 9.5 9.5 0.0 1 9.37 0.13 1%
2 9.43 9.4 -0.1 1 9.34 0.09 1%
17
3 9.7 9.6 0.0 1 9.51 0.19 2%
4 9.9 9.9 0.0 1 9.78 0.12 1%
1 9.43 9.5 0.0 1 9.54 0.11 1%
2 9.3 9.3 0.0 1 9.28 0.02 0%
18
3 8.87 8.9 -0.1 1 8.78 0.09 1%
4 8.77 8.8 -0.1 1 8.44 0.33 4%
1 8.6 8.7 -0.1 1 8.50 0.10 1%
2 8.33 8.4 -0.1 1 8.19 0.14 2%
19
3 8.17 8.2 -0.1 1 7.86 0.31 4%
4 8.03 8.1 -0.1 1 7.58 0.45 6%
1 7.9 8.0 -0.1 1 7.77 0.13 2%
2 7.87 7.9 -0.1 1 7.62 0.25 3%
20
3 7.53 7.7 -0.1 1 7.22 0.31 4%
4 6.93 7.1 -0.2 1 6.44 0.49 7%
1 6.8 6.9 -0.2 1 6.66 0.14 2%
2 6.7 6.7 -0.2 1 6.35 0.35 5%
21
3 6.93 6.9 -0.1 1 6.38 0.55 8%
4 6.87 7.0 -0.1 1 6.33 0.54 8%
1 6.9 -0.1 0 6.71
2 6.7 -0.1 0 6.46
3 6.8 -0.1 0 6.53
4 6.9 -0.1 0 6.50
 0.7 1-ALFA 0.3
0.1 1-BETA 0.9
1.0 L 4 # DE PERIODOS
0.286 ERROR% 3.00%

WINTERS
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
UNIDADES

8.00 DATOS (Yt)

6.00 Ft(Yt)
4.00
2.00
0.00
UNIDADES 10.00
8.00 DATOS (Yt)
6.00 Ft(Yt)
4.00
2.00
0.00
1 6 11 16 21 2 6 31 3 6 41 46 5 1 56 6 1 66 7 1 7 6 81

PERIODOS
 Factor ESTACIONALIDAD
Datos Y TENDENCIAPronostico Pronostico
DATOS
AÑO Dato TRIMESTRE estacional desestacionalizados (x regresion lineal (sin Ajuste Et Et%
(Yt)
1 1 7.53 (St) ´t) ajuste) estacional
2 2 7.7
1
3 3 7.47
4 4 7.27
5 1 7.37
6 2 7.13
2
7 3 7.4
8 4 8.33
9 1 8.83
10 2 10.43
3
11 3 12.2
12 4 12.77
13 1 12.43
14 2 12.23
4
15 3 11.7
16 4 11.2
17 1 11.27
18 2 11.47
5
19 3 11.3
20 4 11.17
21 1 11
22 2 10.63
6
23 3 10.27
24 4 10.2
25 1 9.67
26 2 9.6
7
27 3 9.6
28 4 9.5
29 1 9.5
30 2 9.03
8
31 3 8.7
32 4 8.13
33 1 7.87
9
 34 2 7.67
9
35 3 7.8
36 4 7.73
37 1 7.57
38 2 7.57
10
39 3 7.33
40 4 7.57
41 1 7.63
42 2 7.6
11
43 3 8.17
44 4 9.2
45 1 10.17
46 2 10.33
12
47 3 10.4
48 4 10.37
49 1 10.6
50 2 11
13
51 3 11.4
52 4 11.73
53 1 11.07
54 2 11.67
14
55 3 11.47
56 4 11.3
57 1 10.97
58 2 10.63
15
59 3 10.1
60 4 9.67
61 1 9.53
62 2 9.47
16
63 3 9.5
64 4 9.27
65 1 9.5
66 2 9.43
17
67 3 9.7
68 4 9.9
 69 1 9.43
70 2 9.3
18
71 3 8.87
72 4 8.77
73 1 8.6
74 2 8.33
19
75 3 8.17
76 4 8.03
77 1 7.9
78 2 7.87
20
79 3 7.53
80 4 6.93
81 1 6.8
82 2 6.7
21
83 3 6.93
84 4 6.87
 Valor del componente
estacional irregular
X´t Factor estacional Promedio
Pendiente b1
Corte b0

DAM
MAPE

Pronostico Ajuste Estacional Regresion lineal Simple

14

12

10

0
Regresion lineal sin estacionalidad