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The climatic changes taking place from last 3 decades are of growing concern from the point
of view of global warming and the impact it will have on the mankind and ecosystems on
which they depend. According to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change) the
global surface temperature has increased around 0.74 degree Celsius in the 20 th century.
They have also predicted the temperatures to rise by more than 11 Fahrenheit in next 100
years which is quite frightening. The ambiguity in this estimate arises from the use of
different models used to predict future green house gas emissions and its sensitivity to
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Most of the pragmatic increase in the
warming on a global scale has been due to human activities such as deforestation, excess
burning of fossil fuels, and high rate of greenhouse gas emission. This has also caused Global
dimming which is the blocking of sun rays from falling on the earth surface . The impact of it
is so high that the effects are adverse and will greatly affect and cost the mankind. The likely
effects have already been observed in the form of increasing sea level, change in the pattern
and amount of precipitation, retreat of glaciers, perma frost and sea ice, extreme weather
events, change in agricultural yield pattern, species extinction, oceans becoming more acidic
and many more.

Undoubtedly this change will continue throughout this century and beyond this but the
important question is ho w big and at what pace will it be, and how will it affect the different
regions of this world. Some colder regions can experience its positive effects as the
temperatures will rise which will give them mild winters and long growing seasons but
unfortunately almost 99% of the regions will experience its dreadful effects. Human
activities over the coming decades will majorly influence on the rate and magnitude for
future warming. ͞Anthropogenic Global Warming͟ that͛s what the scientific consensus says.
Stabilize the greenhouse gas concentration and prevent a hazardous anthropogenic
interference is what Kyoto protocol has been aimed at and for which 187 states have signed
and have been ratified. Disruptive changes are more likely if the gas concentration is
allowed to build up in the atmosphere at this present rate. However, reducing the emissions
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other ͞sinks͟ prior to the industrial revolution. But later as the amount or volumes of gases
out in the atmosphere are increasing only half the amount is absorbed but the rest gets
accumulated in the atmosphere which cumulatively amplifies the greenhouse effect. The
increase in rising temperature and the concentration of the gas layer is noteworthy since
1978. The energy reaching from the sun has been precisely measured by the satellites and
they say that it͛s the same since 1978 which mean that there are no natural factors which
are accountable for this change. This clearly gives us a clear evidence that human race are
the sole culprits for this observed pattern of global warming over the land as well as in the
Polar Regions. Co2 concentration has been increased by 36% and methane by 148% since
1750. These levels are at their peak since last 650,000 years. Burning of fossil fuels has
mainly increased the amount of CO2 and is due to the change in land use particularly
deforestation. Over the last couple of decades the rise in GDP per capita and also the
population growth can be the drivers for increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Models
suggest that by the year 2100 the CO2 concentration in atmosphere could range between
541 and 970 ppm which shows around 100 -250% increase since 1750.

i?




The increase in Global dimming from 1960 has occurred due to increase in aerosols which
are produced by pollutants and volcanoes. Aerosol puts forth the cooling effect by
increasing the sunlight reflection. The combined effect of combustion due to burning of
fossil fuels has increased the percentage of net warming by greenhouse gases other than
CO2 which is CH4 (methane). The radiative forcings which occurs due to aerosols are also
temporary because of the wet deposits which cause the aerosols to have a lifetime of one
week. The lifetime for carbon dioxide is 100 years and so changes in the concentration of
aerosols can delay the climatic changes. Aerosols have direct effect on absorbing and
scattering the solar radiations and indirect effect on the radiative budget. Aerosols of
sulphate act as nuclei for cloud condensation and ultimately lead to formation of clouds
which have small droplets of water. These have the tendency to reflect sunlight more
efficiently than the other clouds having large droplets. They also have droplets of uniform
size and so it reduces their growth increasing the clouds reflectivity.
 i? 4



This may warm or cool the surface depending upon whether its deposited or in the
atmosphere. Soot in atmosphere absorbs the radiations thus cooling the surface and
heating up the atmosphere. The rural areas which have high production of soot experience
around 50% of the warming due to green gases masked by the brown clouds. Soot in
atmosphere always is accountable for heating up the entire atmosphere. When it is
deposited on glaciers and ice then lower surface directly heats up the surface. The influence
of greenhouse gases is mostly seen in southern hemisphere and that of aerosols are mainly
seen in Asia and regions around it.




Global Warming is detected in social, ecological and natural systems which has a attribution
directly or indirectly on the human activities. This has caused a significant amount of change
on the nature.

i? m 4 
Global warming has been accountable for many changes in the nature, and the most
important is the changes in the temperature overall. This has caused the sea levels
to rise and the snow covered regions to melt down due to consistency in increasing
temperatures. The rise in temperature globally has increased from the mid twentieth
century. Even when the government has made rules and regulations to curb the
emission of greenhouse gases and control the warming, next century will see the
percentage of warming going high rapidly if this keeps on continuing at the current
rate. Regional climatic changes will be observed which will include high percentage
of land warming in northern hemisphere and least warming near the southern
oceans. Heat waves, heavy precipitation and high summer temperatures are
expected to increase heavily while snow cover, ice and glaciers are expected to
decrease.
 i? 

 4 
The recent warming has caused the poleward shifts with respect to plant and animal
life. The ecosystems of regions like the mangroves, tundra and the coral reefs are
expected to be greatly affected. The overall increase in the percentage of CO2
combined with the warming will disturb the whole ecosystem in near future. This
also may result in some of the species getting extinct.
i? 4
 4 
The climate change in certain regions of northern hemisphere is expected to affect
the forest and agricultural industry. Some systems and sectors of human activities
will be greatly affected which will create an imbalance of the overall cycle. Human
health is at great risk with the current rate of population explosion and limited
resources to use. Coastal areas can expect heavy flooding or storm as it currently
happened in few of the Asian countries. Agriculture and health can see mixed
effects of this change but overall the negative effects will be far more than the
positive effects.






i? þ

Mitigation is to reduce the predicted future changes in the climate. It is the activities
carried out to reduce the overall percentage of greenhouse gases or to increase the
overall carbon sinks which will help in maintain the ecological balance. It is seen
from many of the developed and developing countries that are making efforts to
reduce it using green technologies, waste recycling, energy conservation and less
burning of fossil fuels. Governments are making policies to bring substantial
reductions in CO2 emissions and have framed policies which have targets to increase
the usage of renewable energy and efficiency in using the energy. Carbon traps could
be on a high use in near future which would trap carbon from all industries and from
the burning of fuels in t ransport systems.
i?

 

Adaptating to the climatic changes can be seen as the option left with mankind as of
now which can be performed at an individual level. Its better to adapt rather than
adopt. Adaption can also be planned by the government an d local authorized
agencies to sustain this global change. In some countries adaption is planned and its
already being implemented. But the problem is the costs and benefits, the barriers,
their functionality in long run and their benefits are not fully u nderstood till now as
they are carried out on a small level. Cumulative efforts from all may be can help us
to have a better understanding.
 ‰
Met office (n. d.) ]




 
 
[online] available from
<http‰ http‰ www.metoffice.gov.uk climatechange science controversy facts.htm
l> [02-01-2011]

IPCC (n. d.) 




 [online] available from
<http‰ www.ipcc.ch pdf assessment-report ar4 wg1 ar4-wg1-chapter3.pdf> [03-
01-2011]

IPCC (n. d.) 



 

 [online] available from
<http‰ www.grida.no publications other ipcc_tar
src= CLIMATE IPCC_TAR WG1
127.htm> [03-01-2011]

Sciencemag (n. d.)  





 [online]
available from <http‰ www.sciencemag.org content 307 5716 1769.full.pdf> [05 -
01-2011]

IPCC (n. d.) 


 
[online] available from
<http‰ www.ipcc.ch pdf assessment-report ar4 wg1 ar4-wg1-chapter9.pdf> [04-
01-2011]

Windows2universe (n. d.) 



 
]
 

 

 [online]
available from
<http‰ www.windows2universe.org earth climate greenhouse_effect_gases.html>
[10-01-2011]

U.S. Environmental Protection agency (n. d.) 


 
 [online] available
from <http‰ www.epa.gov climatechange science recentac.html> [10-01-2011]

IPCC (n. d.) Climate Change 2001 [online] available from

<http‰ www.grida.no publications other ipcc_tar
src= climate ipcc_tar wg1 462.
htm> [08-01-2011]
The National academies (n. d— 


 
 

[online] available from

<http‰ americasclimatechoices.org climate_change_2008_final.pdf> [28 -12-2010]

IPCC (n. d.) 

 
!""#$%
 &
'
( [online]
available from <http‰ www.ipcc.ch publications_and_data ar4 wg2 en ch19s19 -3-
4.html> [30-12-2010]

IPCC (n. d.) 

 
!""#$) 
 
[online] available
from <http‰ www.ipcc.ch publications_and_data ar4 wg3 en annex1sglossary-j-
p.html> [05-01-2011]