Está en la página 1de 10

OFERTA

AÑO X Y PRONÓSTICO
1991 1 18,408
1992 2 18,447
1993 3 20,667
1994 4 21,198
1995 5 22,778
1996 6 25,276
1997 7 30,045
1998 8 33,098
1999 9 39,848
2000 10 42,414
2001 11 47,851
2002 12 54,599
2003 13 58,349
2004 14 62,990
2005 15 69,334
2006 16 72,372
2007 17 85,209
2008 18 94,397
2009 19 104,576
2010 20 115,852
2011 21 128,343
2012 22 142,182
2013 23 157,513
2014 24 174,497 a)
2015 25 193,313
2016 26 214,157
2017 27 237,249
2018 28 262,831
2019 29 291,171
2020 30 322,567
2021 31 357,348

Precio $5,000
Nivel de Demanda 90%
1 Litro 2 Meses

b) Año Precio Demanda Ingresos


2007 $5,000 460,130 $2,300,649,487
2008 $5,000 509,744 $2,548,720,500
2009 $5,000 564,708 $2,823,540,146
2010 $5,000 625,599 $3,127,992,636
2011 $5,000 693,055 $3,465,273,177
2012 $5,000 767,784 $3,838,921,503
2013 $5,000 850,572 $4,252,859,025
2014 $5,000 942,286 $4,711,429,987
2015 $5,000 1,043,889 $5,219,447,057
2016 $5,000 1,156,448 $5,782,241,837
2017 $5,000 1,281,144 $6,405,720,815
2018 $5,000 1,419,285 $7,096,427,359
2019 $5,000 1,572,322 $7,861,610,381
2020 $5,000 1,741,860 $8,709,300,420
2021 $5,000 1,929,679 $9,648,393,922

c) VAN $24,911,091,112 Rentable


TIR 4611%
PAYBACK Año 1

r 14%
Inversión -$50,000,000
R. LINEAL
80,000
70,000
f(x) = 3897.62058823529 x + 6724.85000000001
60,000 R² = 0.961466640667324
50,000
Demanda

40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Años

R. LOGARITMICA
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000 f(x) = 20515.4923045738 ln(x) + 526.605626671138
R² = 0.731881816380828
Demanda

40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Años

Costo_Fijo Costo_Variable Flujo_Neto


-$20,000 -$299,084 $2,300,330,402
-$20,000 -$331,334 $2,548,369,166
-$20,000 -$367,060 $2,823,153,086
-$20,000 -$406,639 $3,127,565,997
-$20,000 -$450,486 $3,464,802,692
-$20,000 -$499,060 $3,838,402,443
-$20,000 -$552,872 $4,252,286,153
-$20,000 -$612,486 $4,710,797,501
-$20,000 -$678,528 $5,218,748,529
-$20,000 -$751,691 $5,781,470,145
-$20,000 -$832,744 $6,404,868,072
-$20,000 -$922,536 $7,095,484,823
-$20,000 -$1,022,009 $7,860,568,371
-$20,000 -$1,132,209 $8,708,148,211
-$20,000 -$1,254,291 $9,647,119,630
-$50,000,000

Año
Flujos Netos
Flujos Netos Acumulados
R. EXPONENCIAL
80,000
70,000 f(x) = 14943.7888618885 exp( 0.102426846471423 x )
R² = 0.987100765163397
60,000
50,000

Demanda
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
12 14 16 18 0 2 4 6 8 10
Años

R. POTENCIAL
80,000
70,000
60,000
f(x) = 12020.5058707079 x^0.567717734777315
50,000 R² = 0.833183727616798
DEMANDA

40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
12 14 16 18
AÑOS

Flujo_Neto
$12,000,000,000

$10,000,000,000

$8,000,000,000
jo Neto

$6,000,000,000
Flujo_Neto
$12,000,000,000

$10,000,000,000

$8,000,000,000
Flujo Neto

$6,000,000,000

$4,000,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$0
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Años

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


-$50,000,000 $2,300,330,402 $2,548,369,166 $2,823,153,086 $3,127,565,997
-$50,000,000 $2,250,330,402
R. EXPONENCIAL

943.7888618885 exp( 0.102426846471423 x )


87100765163397

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Años

R. POTENCIAL

58707079 x^0.567717734777315
27616798

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
AÑOS
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$3,464,802,692 $3,838,402,443 $4,252,286,153 $4,710,797,501 $5,218,748,529
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
$5,781,470,145 $6,404,868,072 $7,095,484,823 $7,860,568,371 $8,708,148,211
2021
$9,647,119,630