signed, local institutions must often rely plant in the source country, Abegaz says.

egaz says. tion, the greater may be the threat to

on the integrity of the foreign partner in
sharing information. “You have no way
of knowing” what happened to a sam-
ple, notes Berhanu M. Abegaz of the
University of Botswana. On occasion, a
drug developer may offer to cultivate a
Nevertheless, he adds, this arrangement
can have a double edge: the firm that
holds the patent can also control the
price paid to farmers, and the produc-
ers are kept at a subsistence level.
The more land brought under cultiva-
biodiversity. And if collected from the
wild, the plant itself may become endan-
gered. That happened with the Pacific
yew, which yields the anticancer agent
taxol. If a drug can be synthesized in the
laboratory, the pressure on biodiversity

RODGER DOYLE
BY THE NUMBERS

HONG
KONG

SINGAPORE

METRIC TONS
PER CAPITA IN 1992
LESS THAN 1
1 TO 1.99
2 TO 2.99
3 OR MORE

SOURCE: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

C ertain gases in the atmosphere allow visible light to

pass through, but they block much of the heat reflect-
ed from Earth’s surface—in the same fashion as the glass
windows in a greenhouse. Without this greenhouse effect,
worldwide temperatures would be lower by 35 degrees Cel-
sius, most of the oceans would freeze, and life would cease
or be totally altered. According to the theory of global warm-
ing, an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will
produce unacceptable temperature increases. A doubling of
the volume of gases, for example, would cause temperatures
to go up by 1.5 degrees C or more, a phenomenal change
by historical standards.
The most dramatic consequence of the warming would
be a rise in sea level from the melting of polar ice caps, a
rise that the Environmental Protection Agency projects to
be 20 feet as early as the year 2300—sufficient to submerge
large parts of coastal cities. Global warming would result in
profound shifts in agriculture and may, as some have sug-
gested, hasten the spread of infectious diseases.
Aside from water vapor, the principal greenhouse gases
are carbon dioxide, resulting from the burning of fossil fuels;
methane, produced by the breakdown of plant materials by
bacteria; nitrous oxide, produced during the burning of fossil
fuels and by the decomposition of chemical fertilizers and
by bacterial action; and chlorofluorocarbons, used for indus-
trial and commercial purposes, such as air conditioning. Of
these, carbon dioxide is the most important. The atmospher-
ic concentration of CO2 was 280 parts per million before
the Industrial Revolution; with the increasing use of fossil
fuels, it has risen to more than 350 parts per million today.
The idea of global warming gained support as tempera-
tures soared to record levels in the 1980s and 1990s, but
there are several problems with the theory, including doubts
about the reliability of the temperature record. Despite this
and other questions, a majority of climatologists feel that a
risk of global warming exists, although there is much dis-
agreement concerning the extent and timing. (One of the
uncertainties is the possibility that large amounts of meth-
ane now locked in Arctic tundra and permafrost could be
rapidly released if warming reaches a critical point.) At the
1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and De-
velopment, more than 150 countries signed the U.N. Frame-
work Convention on Climate Change, which pledges signa-
tories to control emissions of greenhouse gases.
In 1992 the Persian Gulf states of Qatar and the United
Arab Emirates had the highest per capita emissions of car-
bon dioxide—16.9 and 11.5 metric tons, respectively—
whereas the U.S. was in eighth highest place with 5.2 metric
tons. Overall, the U.S. produced 23 percent of global emis-
sions, western Europe 14 percent, the former communist
countries of eastern Europe 20 percent, and Japan 5 percent.
Of the developing countries, China was the biggest contrib-
utor in 1992 with 12 percent, followed by India with almost
4 percent. Although emissions have more than tripled dur-
ing the past 40 years, they showed signs of leveling off in
the late 1980s and early 1990s. —Rodger Doyle

24 Scientific American May 1996 News and Analysis

Copyright 1996 Scientific American, Inc.