Arab J Geosci (2009) 2:311–319
DOI 10.1007/s12517-009-0035-3
ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Prediction of slope stability using artificial neural network
(case study: Noabad, Mazandaran, Iran)
A. J. Choobbasti & F. Farrokhzad & A. Barari
Received: 30 October 2008 / Accepted: 15 January 2009 / Published online: 5 February 2009
# Saudi Society for Geosciences 2009
Abstract Investigations of failures of soil masses are
subjects touching both geology and engineering. These
investigations call the joint efforts of engineering geologists
and geotechnical engineers. Geotechnical engineers have
to pay particular attention to geology, ground water, and
shear strength of soils in assessing slope stability.
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are very sophisticated
modeling techniques, capable of modeling extremely
complex functions. In particular, neural networks are
nonlinear. In this research, with respect to the above
advantages, ANN systems consisting of multilayer percep-
tron networks are developed to predict slope stability in a
specified location, based on the available site investigation
data from Noabad, Mazandaran, Iran. Several important
parameters, including total stress, effective stress, angle of
slope, coefficient of cohesion, internal friction angle, and
horizontal coefficient of earthquake, were used as the
input parameters, while the slope stability was the output
parameter. The results are compared with the classical
methods of limit equilibrium to check the ANN model’s
validity.
Keywords Slope stability . Artificial neural network .
Nonlinear . Noabad
A. J. Choobbasti : F. Farrokhzad : A. Barari (*)
Department of Civil Engineering,
Babol University of Technology,
Babol, Mazandaran, Iran
e-mail: amin78404@yahoo.com
Introduction
Investigations of failures of soil masses are subjects
touching both geology and engineering. These investiga-
tions call the joint efforts of engineering geologists and
geotechnical engineers. The geological factors involved in
the initiations of failures of soil masses can be many folds.
Those geological factors more commonly responsible for
engineering problems are as follows (e.g., Choobbasti
1997; Winterkorn and Fang 1975; Blyth and de Frieitas
1976; Legget and Hatheway 1988).
The shear strength of material involved in failure The
shear strength of surfaces along which the movement is
taking place is a function of cohesion and friction.
Cohesion is zero for separated surfaces. Its value is
considerable for surfaces jointed by some mineral infill-
ing. Friction too depends upon the mineralogy, structure,
and roughness of the surfaces and the load applied normal
to the surfaces.
The geometry of the geotechnical or geological structure The
stability of any slope is a function of its steepness and the
orientation of possible weakness planes in the slope. If
the orientations of these weakness planes are more or less
parallel to the direction of the slope surface, they could be
potential planes of movement and instability.
Erosion of a slope by a river or other natural agent This
erosion can take place at the toe of the slope or along a
weaker layer in it. It can happen due to the effect of a tidal
current in a river involving sediment transport. The process
312
of erosion leads to a steeper slope than the original one and
so to a change in the geometry of the slope.
Change in groundwater condition The instability of a soil
mass containing groundwater may occur due to an increase
of the pore pressure. The increase in pore pressure causes a
decrease in the normal effective stress between the particles
by an amount equal to the pore pressure of the water around
the contacts. This causes the shear resistance of the soil
mass to decrease (Terzaghi 1950).
Change of overburden Sedimentation or the placement of
an additional fill near the crest of a slope may reduce its
stability (Legget and Hatheway 1988).
Weathering of soil mass, so that it becomes weaker The
rate at which the weathering can take place may range from
a few days to many years. It may happen due to physical
agents such as water, temperature, and wind or due to
chemical reactions between the minerals. The stability of
the soil mass both in the short term and the long term may
be affected by weathering.
Seismic disturbance The release of potential energy in the
earth crust due to slip along an existing fault may produce
rapid accelerations and consequently additional internal
stresses. The produced rapid acceleration and the additional
internal stresses may cause the already existing in situ shear
stress along a potential failure plane to increase. Further-
more, due to the shaking, the material may tend to densify,
which may lead to an excess pore pressure in saturated
loose soil and consequently to a reduction of the normal
effective stresses.
To indicate the characteristic aspects of failures of soil
masses, various words as “landslides”, “flow slides”,
“rotational slides”, and “translational slides” are being used
(Skempton and Hutchinson 1969). The movements of the
unstable soil masses take place at large local strain at
failure. The actual characteristics of the failures involve the
initial geometry of the unstable soil mass, the pore pressure
distribution as usually dependent on the location of the
phreatic surface, the pattern of deformation, and the speed
at which the movements take place. These aspects depend
on both the mechanical properties of the soil skeleton and
its fraction of saturation by groundwater (Skempton and
Hutchinson 1969).
Slope in soils and rocks are ubiquitous in nature and in
man-made structures. Landslides and failed road cuts and
fills can be a major source of sediment, they can close the
road or require major repairs, and they can greatly increase
road maintenance costs (Fig. 1). Slope failures or landslides
typically occur where a slope is over steep, where fill
material is not compacted, or where cuts in natural soils
Arab J Geosci (2009) 2:311–319
Fig. 1 Oversteep slopes, wet area, or existing slide areas can cause
instability for a slope, damage the structures above it
encounter groundwater or zones of weak material. When
failures do occur, the slide area should be stabilized by
removing the slide material, flattening the slope, adding
drainage, or using structures.
Slope stability
Landslides are frequently responsible for considerable
losses of both money and lives, and the severity of the
land slide problem worsen with increased urban develop-
ment and change in land use. Given this understanding, it is
not surprising that landslides are rapidly becoming the
focus of major scientific research, engineering study, and
practices.
The ever increasing need of civilization caused to
develop land on steep natural slopes and fills for public
and private purposes (Fig. 2). Because slopes consist of
native or transported earth materials, engineering properties
and behaviors are quite variable. This variability and
influence of surface water runoff and groundwater infiltra-
tion cause trigger landslide movements. Today, the analysis
and solution of landslide problems as well as the prevention
of landslide problems requires an understanding of geology,
hydrology, seismology, geotechnical exploration and engi-
neering, computerized analytical methods, and practical and
constructible solutions.
The objectives of assessing slope stability are to balance
material between the cuts and fills, to remain slope stable
over time, to not be a source of sediment, and to minimize
the long-term costs. In the following, a simple analysis is
done to see what is the effect of change of water level on
the volumetric weight of the landslide block for the current
situation of continuing failure.
Arab J Geosci (2009) 2:311–319
Fig. 2 Steepened slope
By considering Fig. 3, the weight of the block ABCD
with unit width along the slope and vertical thickness z can
be calculated by
w ¼ g:z: cos a ð1Þ
where w is the weight of the block ABCD, α is the average
slope of the block, and γ is the volumetric weight of the
soil. Assuming that the lateral forces R along sides AB and
DC counteract each other, the projections of w in the
direction of shear plane and perpendicular to that must be in
Fig. 3 A simple case of slope where the slip surface is parallel to
surface of an infinite slope
313
equilibrium with the mobilized shear stress τ and total
normal stress σn, respectively. Thus
t ¼ w: sin a ¼ g:z: cos a: sin a ð2Þ
and
s n ¼ w:cosa ¼ g:z: cos2 a: ð3Þ
Considering the effect of pore pressure on the shear
resistance of the cohesion less soil, the shear strength of soil
can be calculated using equation
t f ¼ ðs n
uÞ: tan f0 ð4Þ
where u is the pore water pressure at the bottom of the
block. The safety against a shear failure along the shear
plane can be expressed in terms of the safety factor FOS
which is the ratio of the shear stress τf at failure and the
mobilized shear stress τ, thus
tf
F¼ : ð5Þ
t
By substitution of Eq. 2 and in Eq. 5, the factor of safety
FOS can be calculated by
ðs n
uÞ:tanf'
F¼ : ð6Þ
g:z:sina:cosa
Indicating the level of the phreatic surface in terms of the
vertical distance h above the bottom of the block as shown
in (Fig. 3) and assuming that the hydrostatic potential is
normal to the slope, then the relationships between the pore
water pressure u, the unit weight of water γw, the equivalent
height of water h, and the angle of the slope α can be
written as
u ¼ h  cos2 a  g w : ð7Þ
By substituting Eqs. 7 and 3 into Eq. 6, the factor of
safety can be calculated by
ðg:z:cosa
h: cos2 a: g w Þ  tanf'
F¼ : ð8Þ
g:z:sina
If failure occurs, then this factor of safety is equal to 1.
In such case, the volumetric weight of the landslide block
can be calculated by the following equation:
h: cos2 a:tanf': g w
g¼ : ð9Þ
z:ðcosa:tanf'
sinaÞ
Discussing landslides as drained phenomenon in satu-
rated soils and rocks, owing to progressive failure and low
residual strength, existing landslides can continue to slip at
an average shear stress considerably less than the drained
peak strength of the soil or rock as measured by
conventional drained tests (such as triaxial or direct shear
tests). It is widely understood that slope stability depends
314
on different parameters like shear stress of backfill material,
water, earthquake, and erosion. Water and wind continu-
ously erode natural and man-made slopes. Erosion changes
the geometry of slopes. Long periods of rainfall saturate,
soften, and erode soils. Water enters into existing cracks
and may weaken underlying soil layers, leading to failure
(Griffiths and Lane 1999). Slope failures after rainfall or
after changes in the groundwater conditions are due to
increase in the pore pressure which lead to reduction in
effective stress and the strength. Earthquakes are a major
trigger for instability of natural and man-made slopes.
Earthquakes induce dynamic forces, especially dynamic
shear forces that reduce the shear strength and stiffness of
the soil (Cormeau 1975).
The selection of soil material and the development of
strength parameter preparation for the research program to
characterize the slope stability conducted in this part. The
choice between the undrained strength and drained
strength is relatively simple and straightforward. For
temporary slopes and cuts in fine-grained soils with low
permeability, the undrained strength is selected and total
stresses analysis is carried out. For permanent slope, the
critical conditions are at the end of swelling when pore
pressures have reached equilibrium with hydrostatic
conditions (Blyth and deFrieitas 1976). In this case,
effective stress is used (Collins et al. 1988).
Among the most popular methods are procedures pro-
posed by Fellenius, Bishop, Janbu, and Spencer (Griffiths
and Fenton 2004). Some of these methods satisfy only
overall moment, like the ordinary and simplified Bishop
methods. Bishop assumed a circular slip surface as shown
in (Fig. 4). In Bishop’s method, the factor of safety is
determined by trial and errors. The interslice shear forces
are neglected and only the normal forces are used to define
the interslice (Charles and Soares 1984).
Fig. 4 Circular slip surface forces
Arab J Geosci (2009) 2:311–319
Fig. 5 Schematic of a neuron
Artificial neural network
A neural network is a mathematical model formed by
elementary processing units, called neurons. Neurons are
highly interconnected computational units. Artificial neural
networks (ANNs) are considered as information processing
systems that have the abilities to learn, recall, and
generalize from training data (Attoh-Okine 2002).
A set of known input and output values is termed as
input–output pair. All input–output pairs are usually
divided into two sets. The first is termed as learning or
training
set which is used to determine the connection
weights wkij based on the following relationship:
!

0  X
nk
1
yi ¼ f yi k ¼ f
k k k
1
wij yi : ð10Þ
j¼1
The second, named testing set, is used to test the
performance of taught neural network (Fig. 5). A neural
network, in general, has three layers namely, the input,
output, and the hidden layers. The neurons in the input
layer receive input from the external environment. This
layer does not perform any computations. Hidden layer,
which receives inputs from the input layer, performs
computation and provides the outputs to output layer.
Output layer consists of neurons that communicate the
output of system to the user or external environment (Guo
and Uhrig 1992). The structure of a three-layer neural
network is shown in (Fig. 6).
Fig. 6 Structure of a three-layer artificial neural network
Arab J Geosci (2009) 2:311–319
Network architecture
In a neural network, the number of hidden layer neurons
is usually determined from trial and error approach. But
if the number of neurons in the hidden layer is too large,
the network will get an overfit, i.e., the network will
have problem in generalization. The training set of data
will be memorized and thus making the network useless
on test data. In order to design neural network, several
architectures of ANN models were examined by varying
the number of hidden layers and the number of neurons
in each hidden layer and the training function parameters
(Beale and Jackson 1990). The best neural network was
identified after a number of trials to have four layers. An
input layer of eight neurons, an output layer of one
neuron, and also two hidden layers were considered in the
design of the ANN (Flood and Kartam 1994a, b). It is
noted that the number of neurons in each hidden layers is
trained once the error of network reaches a minimum
value (Banimahd et al. 2005).
Training networks
The behavior of a neural network is governed by the values
of its weights and thresholds. Training algorithms are used
to adjust the weights and thresholds, using training data
sets. The network needs to be trained to give the desired
output using a training set. Training set is a group of input
sets and corresponding desired output set. Training involves
the revision of the synaptic weights. The training set should
be self-sufficient to train the network. The network reads
each set of input data and produces an output. This output
is then compared with the desired output. Before the
training is completed, there would obviously be a difference
between the network output and the desired output. Then
the synaptic weights are adjusted such that the error
function is decreased. This way, the network adjusts its
synaptic weights, while running through all the input and
desired output sets. When the network has run through all
the input patterns, root mean square error given by Eq. 11 is
compared with the maximum desired tolerance. If it is
greater than the maximum desired tolerance, a new epoch
(a run through all training input–output sets) is started after
the completion of the current one, and the synaptic weights
are further adjusted toward reducing the error function. This
process is repeated until the network achieves an error
function less than the desired tolerance. This is called as the
back propagation algorithm.
" #0:5
N
 Before any further examination of an existing slope,
1 X 0 2
RMSE ¼ Yi
Yi : ð11Þ
N i¼1
315
Selection of training algorithm
Back propagation is the best known training algorithm for
neural networks and still one of the most useful (Gupta et al.
2003). It has lower memory requirements than most
algorithms and usually reaches an acceptable error level
quite quickly, although it can then be very slow to converge
properly on an error minimum. It is most appropriate for
training multilayer perceptrons.
On each epoch, the entire training set is fed through the
network and used to adjust the network weights and
thresholds. In addition to specifying the number of epochs,
alternative stopping conditions may also be specified, and if
overlearning occurs, the best network discovered during
training can be retrieved. In the present work, the number
of epochs varied between 100 and 300 (Noori 2003).
Learning rate controls the size of weight changes made by
the algorithm. A larger learning rate may lead to faster
convergence, providing that the error surface is not too noisy.
There are two fields for the learning rate. The first is the
starting rate; the second is the finishing rate; if these fields
differ, neural networks will adjust the learning rate on each
epoch, interpolating between the two values. In the present
work, a learning rate of 0.5 is selected.
The addition of momentum causes the back propagation
algorithm to pick up speed. If a number of consecutive
steps change the weights in the same direction, the
momentum must be in the range [0.0, 1.0].
If shuffle cases feature is selected, the order of
presentation of cases is altered within each epoch. Without
this feature, learning sometimes suffers as the algorithm
starts to learn early cases in the epoch and then abandons
these as it learns the later cases.
If cross-verification feature is selected, the network’s
performance will be tested on each epoch using any
verification set defined. If it is turned off, the verification
set is ignored during training, even if present. In this paper,
both shuffle cases and cross verification remained on.
Modeling and training
As shown in Fig. 7, the study area (Noabad) is located in
north of Iran, Mazandaran. The annual mean temperature of
the terrain is 12.5°c and the annual mean precipitation is
estimated 800 (mm). The area climate from Dommartan
method is humid. From geological point of view, the most
of geologic units are related to Cenozoic era that for reason
of the existence of marl, shale and silty stones are
susceptible to landslide occurrence.
essential borehole information was obtained. This informa-
tion gave details of the strata, moisture content, and the
316 Arab J Geosci (2009) 2:311–319

Fig. 9 Sample’s coordinate and stable and unstable sample description

properly select the input variables, as ANNs are supposed

to learn the relationship between input and output variables
on the basis of input–output pairs provided during training
Fig. 7 Map of study area in Mazandaran (Hosaini 2005).
In the proposed neural network model (Fig. 10) for
predicting slope stability, several important parameters,
including total stress, effective stress, angle of slope,
standing water level. Also, the presence of any particular coefficient of cohesion, internal friction angle, and horizontal
plastic layer along which shear could more easily take place coefficient of earthquake were used as the input parameters,
was noted. Piezometer tubes were installed into the ground while the slope stability was the output parameter.
to measure changes in water level over a period of time. It should be noted that vertical acceleration is often
Ground investigations also include the in situ and labora- neglected and, generally, only horizontal peak acceleration
tory tests, area photographs, study of geological maps, and is considered. During the earthquake, the horizontal
memoirs to indicate probable soil conditions, visiting, and
observing the slope, previous instability which happened,
Input layer Hidden layer Output layer
and plotting topography plan (Fig. 8).
When preparing input data (Fig. 9) for a particular site,
Y coordinate
of primary importance is the recognition of the conditions (m)
which caused the slope to become unstable and the
processes which triggered that movement. Only an accurate X coordinate k
( wij )
(m)
diagnosis makes it possible to properly understand the
landslide mechanisms and hence to propose effective Degree of
saturation (Sr)
remedial measures (Farrokhzad 2007, 2008). For the
application machine learning approaches, it is important to
Coefficient of
cohesion (C) Slope stability
(Kpa) &
Safety factor (FOS)

Internal friction
angle (φ)

Angle of slope (α)

k
Horizontal ( wij )
coefficient of
earthquake (ah)

Vertical
coefficient of
earthquake (av)

Fig. 10 Structure of ANN used in this research for predicting slope

Fig. 8 Topography of study area and unstable zone stability
Arab J Geosci (2009) 2:311–319 317

acceleration adds an unfavorably oriented force to the
blocks that may cause instability. However, the acceleration
also reduces normal stresses on the contact plane and
thereby the contribution of the friction to the shear strength
along the plane. The contribution of the cohesion to the
shear strength may be real cohesion due to cementation or
apparent cohesion due to asperities on the discontinuity
plane. During an earthquake, the cementation may be
broken, asperities may be broken, or asperities may be
overridden leading to nonfitting roughness patterns, all
resulting in a cohesion and friction that are permanently
reduced. Hence, an earthquake does not only add unfavor-
able forces to a slope but may also permanently reduce the
shear strength along the discontinuity planes in a slope.
Where tensile strength between the soil particles exists
(for example due to cementation), ground displacements
due to seismic waves may be sufficiently large to rupture
bonds between soil particles, leading to loss of tensile
strength and cohesion (Ishihara 1986). Seismic waves cause
a cyclic loading effect on the soil. In loose unconsolidated
soils, this may lead to compaction thereby reducing pore
volume. If the pore water cannot drain fast enough, the pore
pressure will increase, the effective stresses between the
grains will be reduced, and hence, the shear strength
between the grains will be reduced. Eventually, the soil
may lose all its shear strength and the soil may liquefy. On
slopes, failure will occur before the shear strength is
reduced to zero.

Table 1 Random cases for three slopes

Sample X Y Degree of Coefficient Angle Horizontal Vertical Angle Prediction True

no. coordinate coordinate saturation of cohesion of slope coefficient of coefficient of of slope of neural result
(m) (m) (Sr; %) (C; kPa) (α) earthquake (ah) earthquake (av) (%) network

1 10 0 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Unstable Unstable

2 30 0 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Unstable Unstable
3 60 0 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Stable Stable
4 90 0 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Stable Stable
5 60 15 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Unstable Unstable
6 80 15 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Unstable Unstable
7 110 15 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Stable Stable
8 140 15 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Stable Stable
9 210 30 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Stable Stable
10 230 30 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Stable Stable
11 260 30 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Stable Stable
12 290 30 100 20 25 0.15 0.1 30 Stable Stable
13 10 0 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Unstable Unstable
14 30 0 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Unstable Unstable
15 60 0 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Unstable Unstable
16 90 0 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Stable Stable
17 60 10 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Unstable Unstable
18 80 10 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Unstable Unstable
19 110 10 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Unstable Unstable
20 140 10 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Stable Stable
21 210 20 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Stable Stable
22 230 20 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Stable Stable
23 260 20 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Stable Stable
24 290 20 100 15 22 0.15 0.1 20 Stable Stable
25 10 0 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
26 30 0 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
27 60 0 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
28 90 0 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
29 60 5 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
30 80 5 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
31 110 5 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
32 140 5 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
33 210 10 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
34 230 10 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
35 260 10 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
36 290 10 100 37 20 0.15 0.1 10 Stable Stable
318 Arab J Geosci (2009) 2:311–319

Results and discussions

The ANN models developed in this research were used to

predict the slope stability for five sections in study area. We
had approximately 1,000 outputs of slope stability from
case simulation. Among these data, we used 80% for the
training and remaining for validating the prediction capa-
bility using the best run of each case (Fig. 10).
The dataset covers a wide spectrum of soil and seismic
parameters. In validation phase, model accuracy and efficien-
cy were examined by making prediction against case records,
which were not used during training and testing. The
predictions of the ANN models are reasonable from engi-
neering point of view. It is evident from the Table 1, which
shows the prediction and true value in different section in
study area. In this phase, the proposed algorithm does not
require human development of the proposed model. It rather
confirms the architecture prediction capability of the model.
Thirty-six cases were selected and results of neural network
and true value are shown in Table 1.
In Fig. 11, 1,000 sampling points obtained from study
area (sections A, B, C, D, and E) are classified in ten
groups, each ranging from 1 to 100. From the results shown
in Fig. 11, it can be observed that the neural network results
are considerably close to value calculated by Bishop’s
method. As seen in Fig. 11, the prediction of slope stability
agrees with Bishop’s model. It is shown that the correlation
of the ANN model and Bishop’s model in all case is over
92% and in most case over 95%.
Another network designed for prediction of FOS
(Fig. 12) represents the predicted of FOS from an ANN
model versus calculated value using Bishop’s method. As it
is clear from this figure, the factor of safety calculated by
ANN can vary from 0.4 to 1.5. It should be noted that the
100 97 96 95 95
93 94 92 94 93
Fig. 12 Prediction of FOS versus true value
artificial neural network is designed in such way that the
slope stability measure can be considered as a output value,
named FOS.
Based on the above analysis, the reasons of instability in
the Nobad landslide area can be explained as follow. More
recently, significant relationships have been found between
the raining water and instability, because during construc-
tion of first aviculture and damages in the landslide slide
area, there was not any seismic loading and no earthquake
were occurred but the precipitation increased in spring and
autumn. There was high value of rainfall 8 months per year.
In winter, there was rain and snowfall because of low
temperature and runoff from snowmelt is obvious in
summer. Long period of rainfall saturate, soften, and erode
soils. Water enters into existing cracks and may weaken
underlying soil layers, leading to failure (Fig. 13).
Conclusions
In this paper, based on the in situ and laboratory tests, an
artificial neural network system is designed to perform the
96

80
correlation

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Case NO

Fig. 11 Correlation and case no. Fig. 13 Runoff influence on slope stability
Arab J Geosci (2009) 2:311–319
slope stability analysis for a particular study area, Noabad,
Mazandaran, Iran. To this end, we had approximately 1,000
outputs of slope stability from case simulation. Among
these data, we used 80% for the training and remaining for
validating the prediction capability using the best run of
each case. The dataset covers a wide spectrum of soil and
seismic parameters. When preparing input data for a
particular site, of primary importance is the recognition of
the conditions which caused the slope to become unstable
and the processes which triggered that movement. From the
results presented here, it can be observed that the neural
network results are considerably close to value calculated
by Bishop’s classical method. In all cases, it is over 92%
and in most cases, it is over 95%.
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