Resolver el problema dado en la unidad 2 actividad 1.

Promedio móvil a 3 años

Años Demanda Formula Promedio
1 4
2 6
3 5
4 4 (4 + 6 + 5) / 3 = 5.00
5 10 (6 + 5 + 4) / 3 = 5.00
6 8 (5 + 4 + 10) / 3 = 6.33
7 7 (4 + 10 + 8) / 3 = 7.33
8 9 (10 + 8 + 7) / 3 = 8.33
9 12 (8 + 7 + 9) / 3 = 8.00
10 14 (7 + 9 + 12) / 3 = 9.33
11 15 (9 + 12 + 14) / 3 = 11.67
?? (12 + 14 + 15) / 3 = 13.67

Promedio Móvil ponderado

Años Demanda Formula Promedio
1 4
2 6
3 5
4 4 [(4*3)+(6*2)+5]/6 = 5.17
5 10 [(6*3)+(5*2)+4]/6 = 4.67
6 8 [(5*3)+(4*2)+10]/6 = 7.17
7 7 [(4*3)+(10*2)+8]/6 = 8.00
8 9 [(10*3)+(8*2)+7]/6 = 7.83
9 12 [(8*3)+(7*2)+9]/6 = 8.17
10 14 [(7*3)+(9*2)+12]/6 = 10.17
11 15 [(9*3)+(12*2)+14]/6 = 12.50
?? [(12*3)+(14*2)+15]/6 = 14.17

Suavizamiento de 0.37
Años Demanda Formula Pronostico
1 4 3.00
2 6 3+0.37*(6-3) = 4.11
3 5 4.11+0.37*(5-4.11) = 4.44
4 4 4.44+0.37*(4-4.44) = 4.28
5 10 4.28+0.37*(10-4.28) = 6.39
6 8 6.39+0.37*(8-6.39) = 6.99
7 7 6.99+0.37*(7-6.99) = 6.99
8 9 6.99+0.37*(9-6.99) = 7.74
9 12 7.74+0.37*(12-7.74) = 9.31
10 14 9.31+0.37*(14-9.31) = 11.05
11 15 11.05+0.37*(15-11.05) = 12.51
?? 12.51+0.37*(-12.51) = 7.88