Mes Comercio Vf (1.1649x+313.

99) ERROR MADE MSE

1 322 315.15 - 6.85 6.85 46.86
2 317 316.32 - 0.68 0.68 0.46
3 319 317.48 - 1.52 1.52 2.30
4 323 318.65 - 4.35 4.35 18.93
5 327 319.81 - 7.19 7.19 51.63
6 328 320.98 - 7.02 7.02 49.29
7 325 322.14 - 2.86 2.86 8.16
8 326 323.31 - 2.69 2.69 7.24
9 330 324.47 - 5.53 5.53 30.54
10 334 325.64 - 8.36 8.36 69.91
11 337 326.80 - 10.20 10.20 103.96
12 341 327.97 - 13.03 13.03 169.81
13 322 329.13 7.13 7.13 50.89
14 318 330.30 12.30 12.30 151.26
15 320 331.46 11.46 11.46 131.41
16 326 332.63 6.63 6.63 43.94
17 332 333.79 1.79 1.79 3.22
18 334 334.96 0.96 0.96 0.92
19 335 336.12 1.12 1.12 1.26
20 336 337.29 1.29 1.29 1.66
21 335 338.45 3.45 3.45 11.92
22 338 339.62 1.62 1.62 2.62
23 342 340.78 - 1.22 1.22 1.48
24 348 341.95 - 6.05 6.05 36.63
25 330 343.11 13.11 13.11 171.94
26 326 344.28 18.28 18.28 334.06
27 329 345.44 16.44 16.44 270.35
28 337 346.61 9.61 9.61 92.30
29 345 347.77 2.77 2.77 7.68
30 350 348.94 - 1.06 1.06 1.13
31 351 350.10 - 0.90 0.90 0.81
32 354 351.27 - 2.73 2.73 7.47
33 355 352.43 - 2.57 2.57 6.60
34 357 353.60 - 3.40 3.40 11.58
35 362 354.76 - 7.24 7.24 52.40
36 368 355.93 - 12.07 12.07 145.77
37 348 357.09 9.09 9.09 82.65
38 345 358.26 13.26 13.26 175.73
39 349 359.42 10.42 10.42 108.60
40 355 360.59 5.59 5.59 31.20
41 362 361.75 - 0.25 0.25 0.06
42 367 362.92 - 4.08 4.08 16.68
43 366 364.08 - 1.92 1.92 3.68
44 370 365.25 - 4.75 4.75 22.60
45 371 366.41 - 4.59 4.59 21.06
46 375 367.58 - 7.42 7.42 55.12
47 380 368.74 - 11.26 11.26 126.78
48 385 369.91 - 15.09 15.09 227.85
49 361 371.07 10.07 10.07 101.41
50 354 372.24 18.24 18.24 332.52
51 357 373.40 16.40 16.40 268.96
52 367 374.56 7.56 7.56 57.23
53 376 375.73 - 0.27 0.27 0.07
54 381 376.89 - 4.11 4.11 16.85
55 381 378.06 - 2.94 2.94 8.65
56 383 379.22 - 3.78 3.78 14.26
57 384 380.39 - 3.61 3.61 13.04
58 387 381.55 - 5.45 5.45 29.66
59 392 382.72 - 9.28 9.28 86.14
60 396 383.88 - 12.12 12.12 146.80
61 385.05
62 386.21
63 387.38
64 388.54
65 389.71
66 390.87
67 392.04
68 393.20
69 394.37
70 395.53
71 396.70
72 397.86

Venta
Proyectada
 e
V n a
t M
s i s
e
l Y
( )
t

Vf= 313.99 1.1649

MAPE
0.02
0.00
0.00 Comercio
0.01
450
0.02
0.02 400
0.01
f(x) = 1.16485134759655 x + 313.988700564972
0.01 350
0.02
0.03 300

0.03
250
0.04
0.02 200
0.04
0.04 150
0.02
100
0.01
0.00
50
0.00
0.00 -
0 10 20 30 40 50
0.01
0.00
0.00 Desviación absoluta media (MAD) MADE 6.62
0.02
0.04 Error cuadrático medio (MSE) MSE 67.43
0.06
0.05 MAPE 1.9%
0.03
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.05
0.05
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.03
io

972

40 50 60 70

8.21
 Venta
Año Mes Alimentos Desestacionalizada Vf (0.0646x+56.418)
1 53.50 58.72 56.48
2 53.00 58.77 56.55
3 53.20 58.72 56.61
4 52.50 58.01 56.68
5 53.40 58.26 56.74
6 56.50 58.02 56.81
1
7 65.30 58.50 56.87
8 70.70 58.67 56.93
9 66.90 55.66 57.00
10 58.20 55.56 57.06
11 55.30 56.73 57.13
12 53.40 56.81 57.19
13 52.10 57.18 57.26
14 51.50 57.10 57.32
15 51.50 56.84 57.39
16 52.40 57.90 57.45
17 53.30 58.15 57.52
18 55.50 56.99 57.58
2
19 64.20 57.51 57.65
20 69.60 57.76 57.71
21 69.30 57.66 57.77
22 58.50 55.85 57.84
23 55.30 56.73 57.90
24 53.60 57.03 57.97
25 52.30 57.40 58.03
26 51.50 57.10 58.10
27 51.70 57.06 58.16
28 51.50 56.91 58.23
29 52.20 56.95 58.29
30 57.10 58.63 58.36
3
31 63.60 56.97 58.42
32 68.80 57.09 58.49
33 68.90 57.32 58.55
34 60.10 57.38 58.61
35 55.60 57.03 58.68
36 53.90 57.35 58.74
37 53.30 58.50 58.81
38 53.10 58.88 58.87
39 53.50 59.05 58.94
40 53.50 59.12 59.00
41 53.90 58.80 59.07

4
 42 57.10 58.63 59.13
4
43 64.70 57.96 59.20
44 69.40 57.59 59.26
45 70.30 58.49 59.33
46 62.60 59.76 59.39
47 57.90 59.39 59.45
48 55.80 59.37 59.52
49 54.80 60.14 59.58
50 54.20 60.10 59.65
51 54.60 60.26 59.71
52 54.30 60.00 59.78
53 54.80 59.78 59.84
54 58.10 59.66 59.91
5
55 68.10 61.00 59.97
56 73.30 60.83 60.04
57 75.50 62.81 60.10
58 66.40 63.39 60.16
59 60.50 62.06 60.23
60 57.70 61.39 60.29
61 55.00 60.36
62 54.50 60.42
63 54.80 60.49
64 54.80 60.55
65 55.56 60.62
66 59.09 60.68
67 67.81 60.75
68 73.28 60.81
69 73.17 60.88
70 63.83 60.94
71 59.47 61.00
72 57.40 61.07

Luego la venta se
esstacionaliza
 Vf= 0.0646 56.418

PROMEDIO 58.4 INDICE ESTAC.

1 53.2 0.91
2 52.7 0.90
3 52.9 0.91
4 52.8 0.90 El índice estacional: Se ha ven
un tanto % más de mis venta
5 53.5 0.92 normales
6 56.9 0.97
M 7 65.2 1.12
E
S 8 70.4 1.21
E 9 70.2 1.20
S 10 61.2 1.05
11 56.9 0.97
12 54.9 0.94
12.00

VENTA DESESTACIONALIZADA
66.00

64.00

62.00

60.00
f(x) = 0.064609902467147 x + 56.4177313080853
58.00

56.00

54.00

52.00

50.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 13 1415 1617 181920 2122 2324 2526 272829 3031 32 3334 353637 3839 4041 4243 4445 4647 4849 5051 5253
54.00

52.00

50.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 13 1415 1617 181920 2122 2324 2526 272829 3031 32 3334 353637 3839 4041 4243 4445 4647 4849 5051 5253

Primero se debe generar la venta desestacionalizada

para poder hacer la gráfica y luego se agrega la ecuación
El índice estacional: Se ha vendido
un tanto % más de mis ventaas
normales

3940 4142 4344 4546 47484950 5152 5354555657585960

3940 4142 4344 4546 47484950 5152 5354555657585960