semana demanda st st2 pronostico error error abs error cuadr

1 17 76.9163 83.5808
2 132 77.47 83.5196634 70.18 -61.82 61.82 3821.16
3 43 77.12 83.4556914 71.35 28.35 28.35 803.92
4 40 76.75 83.3886469 70.73 30.73 30.73 944.04
5 127 77.25 83.3272977 70.05 -56.95 56.95 3243.67
6 17 76.65 83.2605366 71.12 54.12 54.12 2928.85
7 96 76.84 83.1963781 69.98 -26.02 26.02 677.30
8 138 77.46 83.1389766 70.43 -67.57 67.57 4565.86
9 64 77.32 83.0808035 71.72 7.72 7.72 59.54
10 56 77.11 83.02108 71.50 15.50 15.50 240.39
11 122 77.56 82.9664429 71.14 -50.86 50.86 2587.14
12 143 78.21 82.9188965 72.09 -70.91 70.91 5027.71
13 57 78.00 82.8697043 73.46 16.46 16.46 270.84
14 70 77.92 82.820204 73.08 3.08 3.08 9.49
15 79 77.93 82.7713068 72.97 -6.03 6.03 36.37
16 115 78.30 82.7266056 73.04 -41.96 41.96 1760.58
17 108 78.60 82.6853212 73.83 -34.17 34.17 1167.52
18 48 78.29 82.6413898 74.47 26.47 26.47 700.65
19 67 78.18 82.5967686 73.90 6.90 6.90 47.60
20 85 78.25 82.5532756 73.72 -11.28 11.28 127.30
21 66 78.12 82.5089928 73.90 7.90 7.90 62.38
22 48 77.82 82.4621403 73.70 25.70 25.70 660.32
23 22 77.27 82.410174 73.14 51.14 51.14 2615.15
24 91 77.40 82.3601008 72.07 -18.93 18.93 358.39
25 61 77.24 82.308888 72.40 11.40 11.40 129.86
26 74 77.21 82.2578635 72.12 -1.88 1.88 3.54
27 82 77.25 82.2078286 72.10 -9.90 9.90 97.93
28 115 77.63 82.1620686 72.25 -42.75 42.75 1827.49
29 19 77.05 82.110903 73.06 54.06 54.06 2922.03
30 132 77.60 82.0657446 71.93 -60.07 60.07 3608.53
31 30 77.12 82.0162782 73.08 43.08 43.08 1855.82
32 93 77.28 81.9688945 72.17 -20.83 20.83 433.79
33 41 76.92 81.9183569 72.54 31.54 31.54 994.74
34 64 76.79 81.8670332 71.86 7.86 7.86 61.80
35 77 76.79 81.8162441 71.65 -5.35 5.35 28.58
36 26 76.28 81.7608841 71.71 45.71 45.71 2089.33
37 37 75.89 81.7021496 70.74 33.74 33.74 1138.67
38 39 75.52 81.6403138 70.01 31.01 31.01 961.87
69.33
MAD 30.26
ECM 1320.81
desviacion 37.8289477
desv ecm 36.3430061
 b) alpha 0.01
160

140

120

100

80 f(x) = − 0.724477513951199 x + 86.2588904694168

60

40

20

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
m 38
a 86.259
b2 -0.7245
b1 58.728