Está en la página 1de 9

PUNTO 1

Año Ventas PM(2) PM (3) PM (4) Error PM (2) Error PM (3) Error PM (4)
1999 50
2000 55
2001 52 52.50 0.50
2002 60 53.50 52.33 6.50 7.67
2003 58 56.00 55.67 54.25 2.00 2.33 3.75
2004 60 59.00 56.67 56.25 1.00 3.33 3.75
2005 62 59.00 59.33 57.50 3.00 2.67 4.50
2006 57 61.00 60.00 60.00 4.00 3.00 3.00
2007 63 59.50 59.67 59.25 3.50 3.33 3.75
2008 62 60.00 60.67 60.50 2.00 1.33 1.50
2009 62.50 60.67 61.00
2010 62.25 61.89 60.75
2011 62.38 61.52 61.69
2012 62.31 61.36 61.36

2.81 3.38 3.38 Desviación Media


PUNTO 1
Año Ventas alfa 0,1 alfa 0,2 alfa 0,3 alfa 0,4 alfa 0,5
1999 50 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
2000 55 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
2001 52 50.50 51.00 51.50 52.00 52.50
2002 60 50.65 51.20 51.65 52.00 52.25
2003 58 51.59 52.96 54.16 55.20 56.13
2004 60 52.23 53.97 55.31 56.32 57.06
2005 62 53.00 55.17 56.72 57.79 58.53
2006 57 53.90 56.54 58.30 59.48 60.27
2007 63 54.21 56.63 57.91 58.49 58.63
2008 62 55.09 57.91 59.44 60.29 60.82
2009 55.78 58.72 60.21 60.97 61.41
2010 56.40 59.38 60.74 61.38 61.70
2011 56.96 59.90 61.12 61.63 61.85
2012 57.47 60.32 61.38 61.78 61.93
Error alfa 0,1 Error alfa 0,2 Error alfa 0,3 Error alfa 0,4 Error alfa 0,5
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.50
9.35 8.80 8.35 8.00 7.75
6.42 5.04 3.85 2.80 1.88
7.77 6.03 4.69 3.68 2.94
9.00 6.83 5.28 4.21 3.47
3.10 0.46 1.30 2.48 3.27
8.79 6.37 5.09 4.51 4.37
6.91 4.09 2.56 1.71 1.18

5.78 4.36 3.66 3.24 3.03 MAD


PUNTO 2
Año TRIM VENTAS PM (2) PMC EST ESP ventas DESESTACIONALIZADAS
Lineal Polinomial
(R^2 = (R^2 =
0,88) 0,94)
2004 I 500
II 200 350.00 350.00
2005 I 550 375.00 362.50 1.52
II 220 385.00 380.00 0.58
2006 I 562 391.00 388.00 1.45
II 225 393.50 392.25 0.57
2007 I 570 397.50 395.50 1.44
II 232 401.00 399.25 0.58
2008 I 582 407.00 404.00 1.44
II 238 410.00 408.50 0.58
2009 I 261.87 -42.458 179.13
II 103.10 -42.3316 178.04
2010 I 258.67 -42.2052 176.95
II 101.83 -42.0788 175.86

IE (I) 1.46 0.46 El promedio del semestre está 46% por encima que el del año.
IE (II) 0.58 -0.42093 El promedio del semestre está 42% por debajo que el del año.
entas DESESTACIONALIZADAS TIEMPO
10

342.03 0 8 f(x) = 0.126360374709707 x − 43.7220403307799


345.38 1 R² = 0.877725601328073
376.23 2 7

379.92 3 6
384.44 4
388.56 5 5

389.91 6 4
400.64 7
398.12 8 3

411.01 9 2
10
11 1

12 0
13 330.00 340.00 350.00 360.00 370.00 380.00 390.00 400.00 410.00 420.00

10
f(x) = 0.001682059948566 x² − 1.13069421310047 x + 190.267386705393
ncima que el del año. 9 R² = 0.944116593672404
ebajo que el del año. 8

0
330.00 340.00 350.00 360.00 370.00 380.00 390.00 400.00 410.00 420.00
07799

400.00 410.00 420.00


PUNTO 3
40.0
Publicidad
AÑO (MILLONES) Ventas (millones de unidades) 35.0

30.0 f(x) = 0.7030192328355 x − 2.36155581820


R² = 0.95758490308158
Lineal Polinomial
25.0
1999 $10 5.0
2000 $22 10.0 20.0
2001 $10 6.0 15.0
2002 $10 6.5
10.0
2003 $50 36.3
2004 $5 2.0 5.0
2005 $10 5.2
0.0
2006 $30 15.0 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50
2007 $40 22.0
40.0
2008 $50 35.0
35.0
2009 $60 39.82 49.10 f(x) = 0.0126725947 x² − 0.007200247003 x + 3.8142
30.0
R² = 0.991468021774619
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50
= 0.7030192328355 x − 2.36155581820135
= 0.95758490308158

0 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60

25947 x² − 0.007200247003 x + 3.8142610095


021774619

0 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60


PUNTO 4

Ventas
(Millones de
Año pesos) PMP (3) ERROR PONDERADORES
1999 50 T-1 0.00
2000 55 T-2 0.00
2001 52 T-3 1.00
2002 60 50.00 10.00 SUMA 1.00
2003 58 55.00 3.00
2004 60 52.00 8.00
2005 62 60.00 2.00
2006 57 58.00 1.00
2007 63 60.00 3.00
2008 62 62.00 0.00
2009 Mínimo 57.00

3.86 MAD