Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
y politicas de empleo
-
Algunas aristas para la discusion
Mauricio Dierckxsens
1
Secciones
2
1. CONTEXTO
3
Contexto volatil y complejo…
• Crecimiento economico inestable y volatil
• Crecimiento ineficiente: reduccion de la
Crecimiento relacion empleo/pobreza/crecimeinto
economico
ineficiente que
• Pobreza extrema cae rapidamente, pobreza
distribuye ganacias de no extrema no. Inequidad sigue subiendo
forma desigual • Polarizacion Salarial (puestos salariales a
ocupaciones complejas no rutinarias o a
simples rutinarias)
• Economia informal
Empleo pleno y • Calidad de los empleos
productivo: Una • Desempleo
realidad distante • Desempleo juvenil
• Brecha de genero
• G20
Agendas de • IFIs
politicas • ODS’s
internacionales
• Marcos de desarrollo
nacionales
Agendas
nacionales • Respuestas
expecificas
• Nuevas discusiones
5
de politica
Enfoque en el empleo: Es crecimiento
económico suificiente?
Notes: N = 64.
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators : http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators.
LABORSTA, ILO
Desempleo según regiones:
Importancia universal?
7
Cuantos empleos perdimos en la
crisis?
8
Desempleo juvenil, siempre mayor al
desempleo general
9
Poblacion con beneficios de
desempleo
10
Poblacion con pension y en edad
pensionable
11
Tener un empleo: tener buen ingreso?
(pobreza trabajadora, <USD2/dia)
12
Inequidad en el mundo
Esto refleja oportunidades o
resultados de optimizacion?
13
Empleo Vulnerable, una buena
noticia
14
Asimetria de genero en el
empleo
(necesidad de inclusión en economías desarrolladas y ECE)
15
La productividad laboral ha crecido mas de
10% en muchos países. Y los salarios?
16
Crecimiento mundial liderado por el consumo
(salarios, rentas)… y la inversión
17
Algunas diferencias entre EECA y
CA
• Desempleo mucho mas alto
• Participacion en el Mercado laboral mas bajo
• Educacion secundaria y post secundaria tecnica mucho mas
elevada
• Seguro de desempleo
• Proteccion social mucho mas expandida
• Menor informalidad
• Pobreza trabajadora mucho mas baja
• Impera el modelo de asalariado a tiempo completo
18
2. POLITICAS DE EMPLEO
19
Politica de empleo:
Ciclo de politicas
20
Que contendria una politica de
empleo?
• Oferta
• Demanda
• Marco institucional
21
22
23
24
Cuanto dura formularlo?
• Largo plazo?
• 12 a 18 meses
• Corto plazo?
• 5 meses…pero lecciones de BiH vs MDA
• Costoso, y a pesar de que “todos saben cual es la realidad”,
siempre termina requiriendo igualar el conocimiento y
establecer relaciones interinstitucionales
25
3. LECCIONES DEL META
ANALISIS, COMPARACION
CRC Y SRB
26
Resultados del meta-analisis de algunos paises
(i) contenidos
29
Politica inflacionaria, lo convencional
• Declaraciones asociadas (validas? No validas?):
• Inflacion de un digito para todos los paises
• Meta anunciada para 18 economias emergentes: 3.5 %
• Reducir el riesgo inflacionario reduce las tasas para endedudarse
• Promueve la inversion privada
• La inflacion afecta el consumo por ende los pobres
31
Tasa de cambio: Multiples
regimenes. Cual sirve mejor?
• Politica cambiaria “dura” (fácil para socios estables) BiH
32
Fiscal policy
• Biggest political decision how to balance the budget across
different regions: EU and US…
• History shows one succeeded (the US integration), other
struggles.
• Its not so much a “magic number” as credible issuance
• ‘Credible’ fiscal policy boosts private investment
• ‘Credible’ fiscal policy needs rules on budgetary
aggregates
• Growing popularity of fiscal rules
• “Rules” and investment: Clarity has mattered more than the
ammount commited
33
Otras lecciones de macro y
empleo
• Intervenciones
• (1) contraciclicas
• (2) lfinanciamiento a largo plazo y sostenible de objetivos de
desarrollo elementales
• (3) inclusión financiera
• (4) régimen cambiario prudente y manejo de cuentas capitales
• Conduce a « ambiente promotor » del crecimiento inclusivo y
la transformacion productiva
34
Espacio para politica industrial / sectorial
No es predisponer, pero apoyar
35
It is not a proven science:
Perspectives on industrial transformation
• Structuralist
• From this perspective, diversification within and across sectors, rather than
specialization, is a key driver of income growth
• Neoclassical (market failure, govt failure)
• While, in principle, market failures provide a strong rationale for state
interventionbut neoclassicals assume risk of government failure is greater than
that of market failure
• Comparative advantage (revealed)
• Institutionalist/structuralist
• Comparative advantages are not “given”, but rather are made,
• Find ways to deliberately move productive structures away from “low-quality
activities”, Shumpeter and tecnology
• when the real exchange rate appreciates and industrial and technological policies
(ITPs) are weak or absent, productivity growth is driven by rationalization and
defensive responses not related to the expansion of effective demand
• GVC
• Global value chains have the potential to become important learning networks
and catalysts for the generation of capabilities, productive capacities and
productive employment 36
…el tipo de empleos importa
37
Cognitive, routine and non-
routine work
• New technologies – such as information and communication
technologies (ICT) – have been replacing routine tasks
• Earnings data for developed economies illustrate that non-
routine cognitive jobs pay considerably higher wages, on
average, than routine and non-routine manual occupations
• An increase in the number of jobs at both the lower and upper
ends of the skills ladder at the expense of medium-skilled
routine jobs hence contributes to a rise in income inequality
(this is the case even if wages remain unchanged).
• BUT The request for post-secondary education non-university
education is a common challenge for the region.
38
SPE y mercado laboral transparente
39
Labour market is a market fraught with short-term decisions with long term impact… both
for (future) workers and employers… so, information is also needed
Que funciona en PALM?
Employment outcomes
By main category of intervention
%
nameofint ES (95% CI) Weight
Comprehensive
New Chance -0.02 (-0.11, 0.07) 2.56
National Guard Youth Challenge Programme 0.09 (-0.13, 0.30) 1.08
New Deal For The Young Unemployed 0.14 (-0.17, 0.44) 0.62
Teenage Parent Demonstration 0.14 (0.01, 0.28) 1.84
ALMP for disadvantaged youth in Germany 0.27 (-0.11, 0.65) 0.42
Subtotal (I-squared = 29.6%, p = 0.224) 0.07 (-0.02, 0.17) 6.51
.
Employment services
Finnish Vocational Labour Market Training (LMT) -0.03 (-0.09, 0.03) 3.11
BPO recruiting services 0.01 (-0.04, 0.05) 3.31
Counseling and Job Placement for Young Graduate Job Seekers 0.03 (-0.02, 0.07) 3.32
Jordan NOW 2.0 0.03 (-0.12, 0.18) 1.73
Mandatory visits to job info. centers(Germany) 0.08 (-0.14, 0.30) 1.03
Franklin Subsidized Transport Experiment 0.13 (-0.04, 0.29) 1.53
Subtotal (I-squared = 0.0%, p = 0.429) 0.01 (-0.02, 0.04) 14.01
.
Entrepreneurship promotion
CréaJeunes -0.01 (-0.17, 0.15) 1.56
Turning Theses into Enterprises 0.01 (-0.10, 0.11) 2.32
Jóvenes Rurales Emprendedores 0.07 (-0.18, 0.33) 0.83
Youth Opportunities Programme (YOP) 0.13 (0.04, 0.23) 2.51
Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls (EPAG):2 0.36 (0.21, 0.50) 1.77
Women’s Income Generation Support (WINGS) 0.82 (0.66, 0.97) 1.62
Subtotal (I-squared = 94.3%, p = 0.000) 0.23 (-0.00, 0.47) 10.61
.
Skills training
Labour Market Training -0.14 (-0.37, 0.09) 0.98
Jovenes En Accion -0.06 (-0.17, 0.04) 2.28
Quantum Opportunity Program (QOP) -0.04 (-0.20, 0.11) 1.60
Technical and Vocational Voucher Programme (TVVP) -0.03 (-0.16, 0.09) 2.01
Programa Juventud y Empleo -0.02 (-0.12, 0.08) 2.34
CET replication sites 0.00 (-0.23, 0.23) 0.98
JobStart 0.00 (-0.08, 0.09) 2.63
Mandatory internships(Germany) 0.01 (-0.10, 0.12) 2.24
Utvecklingsgarantin (UVG) 0.02 (-0.01, 0.04) 3.56
Ohio Transitions To Independence Demonstration 0.07 (0.00, 0.13) 2.98
Job Corps 0.07 (0.00, 0.13) 2.99
JTPA 0.07 (0.00, 0.14) 2.92
Jordan NOW:3 0.08 (-0.07, 0.23) 1.72
Ninaweza Youth Empowerment Programme:1 0.08 (-0.22, 0.38) 0.65
Ninaweza Youth Empowerment Programme:2 0.09 (-0.21, 0.39) 0.64
Senai Vocational Training 0.10 (-0.01, 0.21) 2.26
Contrat de Qualification 0.12 (0.04, 0.21) 2.67
Arbeit Sofort! 0.12 (-0.12, 0.37) 0.88
Youth Training Programme 0.14 (-0.01, 0.29) 1.69
Empowerment and Livelihood for Adolescents (ELA) 0.14 (0.07, 0.21) 2.93
Projoven 0.16 (-0.07, 0.38) 0.99
Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls (EPAG):1 0.17 (-0.05, 0.38) 1.03
Formacion Tecnica y Tecnologica (FT&T) 0.17 (0.02, 0.31) 1.70
Entra 21 0.17 (-0.07, 0.41) 0.92
Procajoven:2 0.17 (-0.17, 0.51) 0.51
Procajoven:1 0.19 (-0.20, 0.57) 0.41
Satya/Pratham programme 0.21 (0.05, 0.37) 1.52
Employment Fund 0.21 (0.02, 0.40) 1.26
Chile-Joven 0.46 (0.22, 0.70) 0.90
Subtotal (I-squared = 50.8%, p = 0.001) 0.07 (0.04, 0.10) 50.16
.
40
Subsidized employment
Youth Practice -0.04 (-0.18, 0.10) 1.85
Jordan NOW:2 -0.04 (-0.26, 0.18) 1.04
Contrat Jeune en Entreprise -0.02 (-0.32, 0.27) 0.66
Swedish employer-paid payroll tax 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) 3.68
Youth Hires 0.02 (-0.05, 0.09) 2.95
2008 Employment Package 0.04 (-0.09, 0.16) 2.00
Youth Wage Subsidies for South Africa 0.10 (-0.01, 0.21) 2.21
Stage d'Initiation à la Vie Professionnelle (SIVP) 0.16 (0.07, 0.25) 2.58
Jordan NOW:1 0.25 (0.11, 0.40) 1.74
Subtotal (I-squared = 66.1%, p = 0.003) 0.06 (0.00, 0.11) 18.70
.
Overall (I-squared = 76.4%, p = 0.000) 0.08 (0.05, 0.11) 100.00
NOTE: Weights are from random effects analysis
Some employment-related
issues
• Employment protection legislation:
• Less impact on level of employment as on transitions from one
job to another. Too high Difficult to fire, but also worth investing
in. Too low Easy to fire, but low incentive to train
• Wages:
• Average wage can be too close to minimu, not only the other way
around (2/3 of the median is a rule of thumb)
• Employment: Little or small negative impact on aggregate
employment (some studies indicate even +ve effect) but stronger
negative effect for youth and low-skilled (lower end of the
distribution)
• Information
• Admin and statistical for impact assesments
• Forecasts: Are we able? 41
• Transitions from education to work
GDP/Capita versus doing
business ranking
80000
70000
60000
y = -172.33x + 26285
R² = 0.4393
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 42
-10000
MKD: 4to pais en
doing business
Is it the LEVEL or the QUALITY?:
GDP/Cap and Regulatory quality
43
Some lessons learnt from country experiences
44
Commonly agreed challenges serve to prioritize issues and
mobilize willingness (Youth Guarantee, SDG’s, etc)
Some lessons learnt from country experiences
(i) process
1. Diagnostics - Sound analysis, research and labour market
information
2. Strategic vision - Long-term strategic planning to ensure
consistency of policy changes over the short and the longer term
3. Coordination and policy coherence - Making employment a
cross-sectoral goal and responsibility
4. Effective support system – capacity building and competent
bureacracies
5. Accountability - Realistic monitoring and evaluation system;
employment-targeting at all levels - macro, sectoral, micro
6. Budget allocations – National policy announcements on job
creation should be linked to quantifiable budget targets
7. Local is beautiful – especially if it can be scaled up
8. Last but not least … Social dialogue
45
Otros temas no resueltos
• La necesidad de saber que va a pasar en el futuro vs la necesidad
de avanzar mas y mas rapido en tecnologias
• La solidaridad intergeneracional (EEUU y RU ya no la tiene)
• La relacion salarial como una forma de establidad en la produccion
y el desarrollo de empresas (“historias de 1890”)
46
Key labour market barriers for youth
Key barriers in the supply Key barriers in the demand
side side
Job skills
Mismatch in technical
skills
Mismatch in non-technical
skills
Aggregate and
labor demand
Slow job-growth economy
D iscrimination
Poor signaling
Start-ups
Lack of access to capital
(financial, physical or social)
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends for Youth, August 2010