TENDENCIA EXPONENCIAL

Función

^y =c ⋅b x
log ^y =logC + xlog b
Ecuación

1. Σlog y i=nlogC
2. Σxⅈlog y i=Σ xⅈ 2 logb

Ejercicio

Años Ventas ( y i ¿ Σxⅈ Σlog y i Σxⅈlog y i Σ xⅈ 2

2013 5.453 -3 3.73665 -11.20992 9
2014 7.558 -2 3.87841 -7.75682 4
2015 9.190 -1 3.96332 -3.96332 1
2016 10.584 0 4.02465 0 0
2017 16.645 1 4.22128 4.22128 1
2018 23.419 2 4.36957 8.73914 4
2019 40.419 3 4.60659 13.81977 9
Total 113.268 0 28.80046 3.85013 28

1. 28.80046 = 7 log C
2. 3.85013 = 28 log b

1. Log C = 28.80046 / 7 = 4.11435

2. Log b = 3.85013 / 28 = 0,13750

log ^y =logC + xlog b

log ^y =4.11435+ 0,13750 xⅈ
log ^y 2020=4.11435+0,13750 ( 4 )=4.66435 ⤑ 46.168,95
log ^y 2022=4.11435 +0,13750 ( 6 )=4.93935 ⤑86.966,10

^y =c ⋅b x
^y 2020=( 13.012,18 ) (1,37246)4 =46.168,83

^y 2022=( 13.012,18 ) (1,37246)6=86.965,75

Ejercicio

Años Ventas ( y i ¿ Σxⅈ Σlog y i Σxⅈlog y i Σ xⅈ 2

2012 32 -3 1.50515 -4.51545 9
2013 24 -2 1.38021 -2.76042 4
2014 38 -1 1.57978 -1.57978 1
2015 54 0 1.73239 0 0
2016 42 1 1.62325 1.62325 1
2017 66 2 1.81954 3.63908 4
2018 64 3 1.80618 5.41854 9
Total 0 11.4465 1.82522 28

1. 11.4465 = 7 log C
2. 1.82522 = 28 log b

1. Log C = 11.4465 / 7 = 1,63521

2. Log b = 1.82522 / 28 = 0,06519

log ^y =logC + xlog b

log ^y =1,63521+0,06519 xⅈ
log ^y 2020=1,63521+0,06519 ( 5 )=1.96116 ⤑ 91.445
log ^y 2022=1,63521+0,06519 ( 7 )=2.09154 ⤑ 123.463

^y =c ⋅b x
^y 2020=( 43.17278 ) (1.16196)5=91.446

^y 2022=( 43.17278 ) (1.16196)7 =123.466

 TENDENCIA LOGARITMICA

Función

Σlog y i=a+ bxⅈ

Ecuación

1. Σlog y i=na+ bΣxⅈ

2. Σxⅈlog y i=aΣxⅈ+b Σ xⅈ2

Ejercicio

Años Importaciones ( Σxⅈ Σlog y i Σxⅈlog y i Σ xⅈ 2

yi ¿
2011 9 0 0.95424 0 0
2012 6 1 0.77815 0.77815 1
2013 4 2 0.60206 1.20412 2
2014 3 3 0.47712 1.43136 3
2015 3 4 0.47712 1.90848 4
2016 5 5 0.69897 3.49485 5
2017 4 6 0.60206 3.61236 6
2018 2 7 0.30103 2.10721 7
Total 28 4.89076 14.53653 140

1. 4.89076 = 8a + 28b (-5)

2. 14.53653 = 28a + 140b

1. -24.4538 = -40a – 140b

2. 14.53563 = 28a + 140b

-9.91727 = -12a

a= -9.91727 / 12 = 0,82644

4.89076 = 8a + 28b

- 1.72076 = 28b

b= - 1.72076 / 28 = - 0,06146

Σlog y i=a+ bxⅈ

Σlog y i=0,82644−0,06146xⅈ

log ^y 2020=0,82644 +0,06146 ( 9 )=0,2733⤑ 1.87668

Ejercicio

Años Importaciones ( Σxⅈ Σlog y i Σxⅈlog y i Σ xⅈ 2

yi ¿
2012 6 0 0.77815 0 0
2013 5 1 0.69897 0.69897 1
2014 3 2 0.47712 0.95424 2
2015 1 3 0 0 3
2016 4 4 0.60206 2.40824 4
2017 3 5 0.47712 2.3856 5
2018 2 6 0.30103 1.80618 6
2019 1 7 0 0 7
Total 28 3.33445 8.25323 140

1. 3.33445 = 8a + 28b (-5)

2. c = 28a + 140b

1. -16.67255 = - 40a – 140b

2. 8.25323 = 28a + 140b

-8.41902 = -12a

a= -8.41902 / 12 = 0,70159

3.33445 = 5.61268 + 28b

- 2.27823 = 28b

b= - 2.27823 / 28 = - 0,08134

Σlog y i=a+ bxⅈ

Σlog y i=0,70159−0,08134 xⅈ

log ^y 2020=0,70159−0,08134 ( 8 )=0,62025 ⤑ 4.171094