INVESTOR DIGEST

Equity Research | 21 July 2020

Economic Data HIGHLIGHT

Latest 2020F
• Why Has Rupiah Weakened This Month?
7-DRRR (%), eop 4.00 4.00 • Strategy: Recovery Pulse Check
Inflation (YoY %) 1.96 2.52 • Sido Muncul 2Q20: Cost Efficiencies Covered for Export’s Poor Progress (SIDO;
US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 14,853 14,745 Rp1,210; Buy; TP: Rp1,450)
• Market Recap July 20th 2020; JCI 5,051.11 Points -28.48 pts (-0.56%); Valued $370mn;
Mkt Cap $381bn; USD/IDR 14,853
Stock Market Data
(20 July 2020)

JCI Index 5,051.1 -0.56% ECONOMY

Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 5,541.5
Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 5,852.7 Why Has Rupiah Weakened This Month?

 Rupiah has depreciated by 2.5% in the last 1 week and 3.6% month-to-date
to around Rp14,750/USD. Interestingly, the exchange rate weakening has been
Market Data Summary* deeper compared to peers, as EM currencies on average only depreciated by
0.2% and 0.0% in the corresponding periods. Meanwhile, in the context of year-
2020F 2021F
to-date, rupiah has depreciated by 6.6% (vs. peers’ depreciation at 8.1%).

P/E (x) 19.7 14.4  What caused the rupiah depreciation lately? Obviously, it is not because of
P/BV (x) 2.0 1.9 the debt monetization, as BI has not started the process, while the bond has
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.0 11.4 actually recorded net foreign inflow of Rp3.9bn in the last 1 week and Rp1.7bn
Div. Yield (%) 3.4 2.6 month-to-date. Furthermore, although the re-opening has started, we do not
Net Gearing (%) 25.0 22.1 think it has sparked large import demand, as the biggest chunks of imports
ROE (%) 10.3 13.6 (capital goods & raw material imports, accounting for 90% of total imports) are
EPS Growth (%) -25.6 37.3 estimated to be low, aligned with the weak investment and oil price.
EBITDA Growth (%) -9.4 13.5
 Having said that, we think part of the exchange rate weakening may have been
Earnings Yield (%) 5.1 7.0
due to companies having delayed their dividend repatriations, which are usually
paid in May and June in the second quarter, yet they’ve shifted to this month
* Aggregate of 75 companies in MS research universe,
representing 62.8%of JCI’s market capitalization due to the COVID-19 situation. This also explains why the exchange rate has
been strong in 2Q20 (appreciating by 12.5% to around Rp 14,265/USD). For
information, dividend repatriation averagely amounts to USD 6bn each quarter
with the second quarter figure being USD 1bn–2bn larger (the amount should
be lower this year as a consequence of weak domestic economy).

 2H20 rupiah should normalize. All in all, considering the sharp exchange rate
depreciation is expected to be temporary, we believe rupiah would normalize
back to around Rp14,300–14,500/USD in Aug-20. In context of monetary policy,
Bank Indonesia will pause the policy rate cut, in our opinion, as it will need to
maintain the competitiveness of the real interest rate differential compared to
peers to attract further flows (see Macroscope: BI Trims Policy Rate – A Pause Will
Likely Follow). We maintain our exchange rate forecast at Rp 14,296/USD for
YE20 and Rp14,177/USD for YE21.

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 Equity Research | 21 July 2020

THE RUPIAH WEAKENING HAS BEEN DEEPER COMPARED TO PEERS

Exchange Rate Performance 1 -Day Change(%) 20 July 2020 Exchange Rate Performance 3 -Day Change(%) 20 July 2020

Russia -0.5% Czech -0.6%

Czech -0.4% DXY* -0.4%
Brazil -0.3% India -0.3%
DXY* -0.2% Philippines -0.2%
South Korea -0.1% Brazil 0.0%
India -0.1% China 0.0%
Philippines -0.1% Malaysia 0.0%
Turkey -0.1% Singapore 0.0%
*Positive DXY means *Positive DXY means
China -0.1% Turkey 0.0%
appreciation appreciation
EMs Avg** 0.0% Japan 0.1% **The EMs calculation excludes
Singapore 0.0%
** The EMs calculation excludes ASEAN Avg 0.1% Argentina and Turkey
Argentina and Turkey Argentina 0.2%
Malaysia 0.0%
Argentina 0.0% EMs Avg** 0.2% Data as of Jul 20, 2020
Data as of Jul 20, 2020
ASEAN Avg 0.0% South Korea 0.2%
Japan 0.1% Russia 0.7%
Thailand 0.3% Thailand 0.7%
Indonesia 0.6% Indonesia 1.4%

-0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%

Exchange Rate Performance 5 -Day Change(%) 20 July 2020 Exchange Rate Performance Month-to-Date Change(%) 20 July 2020

Czech -1.2% Czech -2.2%

DXY* -0.7% Brazil -1.8%
Brazil -0.6% DXY* -1.7%
India -0.4% China -1.1%
Japan -0.2% Philippines -0.9%
Philippines -0.1% Japan -0.8%
China -0.1% India -0.8%
Singapore -0.1% Malaysia -0.5%
*Positive DXY means *Positive DXY means
Turkey 0.0% Singapore -0.3%
appreciation appreciation
Malaysia 0.0% **The EMs calculation EMs Avg** 0.0%
South Korea 0.2% **The EMs calculation
excludes Argentina and South Korea 0.0% excludes Argentina and
EMs Avg** 0.2% Turkey Turkey 0.1% Turkey
ASEAN Avg 0.2% ASEAN Avg 0.3%
Argentina 0.3% Data as of Jul 20, 2020
Russia 0.4% Data as of Jul 20, 2020
Russia 0.7% Argentina 1.4%
Thailand 1.2% Thailand 2.8%
Indonesia 2.5% Indonesia 3.6%
-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

Source: Bloomberg

Leo Rinaldy(+6221 5296 9406) leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id

Imanuel Reinaldo(+6221 5296 9651) imanuel.reinaldo@mandirisek.co.id

STRATEGY

Recovery Pulse Check

 Mandiri Sekuritas analysts have conducted calls with multiple companies and experts across industries while collecting
post-reopening data points and the latest corporate disclosures on COVID-19 impact. 2Q20 EPS could disappoint the
street yet reflected in JCI’s underperformance. Post-reopening data points are mixed while 3Q20 PMI expectations remain
contractionary, albeit improving, signifying the importance of fiscal spending. Our barbell strategy, preferring both
defensives and cyclicals, is unchanged.

 Corporate view on 1H20 profit. The latest disclosures indicate YoY net profit drops with ranges of <25% and 25-50%
respectively across selected banks (1H20) and consumer (in 4M20 and 5M20), while those expecting >75% impact are
mostly within consumer discretionary (4M20), contractors (May/Jun), and some other cyclicals (i.e. MAIN, SILO, INDY, and
BIRD). Run-rate indications are better than our 2020 forecasts for GGRM, JSMR, and ACES, while lower on commodities
and BIRD.

 Mobility recovery: more upside in JSMR. Convincing mobility recovery at outside Jakarta and ex-Java, aligned with the
color shared by retailers. Traffics to groceries and pharmacists have normalized, while retail and recreational areas are at

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 Equity Research | 21 July 2020

80% of normal. Workplace mobility stayed unchanged at 80% of normal since mid-June, yet JSMR’s toll road revenue has
already recovered to 90% of normal in the second week of July.

 Consumption: mixed. Property pre-sales shockingly beat estimates, while apparels had soft June sales, as COVID-19
headlines deterred foot-traffic returns. Yet, supply-chain check indicates less frightening 2H20 for mid-upper retailers,
though it remains contractionary. 4W retail sales had convincing June recovery at 37% of Jan-20 level with financing
down-payment starting to normalize. Retail sales index (RSI) fell 21% YoY in May from -17% in April, with discretionary
spending falling the most, while F&B and Tobacco were more resilient. June’s RSI drop was projected at 14% YoY, helped
by narrower decline in auto fuels, F&B, and tobacco.

 Infra: stay LONG on cement. Tactically, property is worth a relook, though we prefer having the infra/property exposure
through cement given the higher certainty. INTP reported decent seasonally, with adjusted May-June volume falling just
8% YoY. DMAS booked solid 2Q20 industrial land sales, with land inquiries remaining high. Potential Omnibus Law
approval in 2H20 is a key catalyst, while 2021 state budget proposal on 17-Aug needs close monitoring, as contractors
have been underperforming.

 Banks: slowing loan restructuring, yet business expansion remains slow. Total restructured loans reached Rp770trn
in early July (14% of total loans; 15-22% for the big-4 banks), wherein 42% were for MSMEs. Restructuring pace is slowing,
especially for MSMEs, though credit risk stays unchanged. According to BI’s survey, 30% of the respondents had
worsening financial conditions in 2Q20 (vs. 10%/5% in 1Q20/4Q19) and 14% had tighter access to credit (vs. 4-5%
previously). BI’s business confidence survey reported net weighted balance of -35.8% in 2Q20 from -5.6% in 1Q20, while
expectations on 3Q20 improved to 0.5%. Capacity utilization fell 10.2% YoY to 69.3% in 2Q20, well below 3Y mean of 76%,
signifying the importance of fiscal spending while BI’s survey on 3Q20 PMI remains contractionary at 45.7, albeit
improving dramatically from 28.5 in 2Q20.

COMPANY’S DISCLOSURES ON REVENUE AND NET PROFIT IMPACT FROM COVID-19

Company Estimates 1Q20, YoY 2020F (MANSEK), YoY
Stocks Period
Revenue Net Profit Revenue Net Profit Revenue Net Profit
Banks
BBTN 6M20 <25% drop YoY 25-50% drop YoY -12% -37% 7% 496%
BNGA 6M20 <25% drop YoY <25% drop YoY 4% 12% 1% -36%
BNLI 6M20 <25% drop YoY 25-50% drop YoY 16% -100% 1% -39%
BJTM 6M20 <25% increase YoY <25% drop YoY 4% 8% 3% -17%
Consumer Staples & Tobacco
GGRM 5M20 <25% drop YoY <25% drop YoY 4% 4% -8% -32%
MYOR 4M20 <25% drop YoY <25% drop YoY -11% 100% 4% 44%
MLBI 4M20 25-50% drop YoY 51-75% drop YoY -18% -42% -37% -53%
Consumer Discretionary
ACES 4M20 <25% drop YoY <25% drop YoY 5% 4% -13% -31%
LPPF 4M20 25-50% drop YoY >75% drop YoY -20% -166% -43% -96%
MAPA 4M20 <25% drop YoY 25-50% drop YoY -3% -49% -32% -92%
MAPI 4M20 <25% drop YoY >75% drop YoY 1% -94% -42% -283%
PZZA 4M20 <25% drop YoY >75% drop YoY 6% -85% -9% -40%
Poultry
MAIN 4M20 >75% drop YoY >75% drop YoY -13% -85% -13% -72%
Media
MNCN 6M20 <25% drop YoY <25% drop YoY 6.90% -43% UR UR
SCMA 5M20 <25% drop YoY 25%-50% drop YoY 1.50% -11.60% UR UR
Automotive/Conglomerates
ASII 5M20 <25% drop YoY 25%-50% drop YoY* -9% -8% -14% -32%
Hospitals
SILO 6M20 <25% drop YoY >75% drop YoY 10% 387% 12% -113%
MIKA 5M20 <25% drop YoY <25% drop YoY 9% 9% -2% -5%
Building Materials
SMGR Jun-20 <25% drop QoQ <25% drop QoQ 6% 67% -6% 5%

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 Equity Research | 21 July 2020

Company Estimates 1Q20, YoY 2020F (MANSEK), YoY

Stocks Period
Revenue Net Profit Revenue Net Profit Revenue Net Profit
INTP Jun-20 No impact No impact -10% 1% -10% -9%
Contractors & Toll Road Operator
JSMR 4M20 <25% drop YoY <25% drop YoY 8% 1% -13% -88%
WSKT Jun-20 51-75% drop YoY >75% drop YoY -52% -94% -24% n.m
PTPP May-20 25-50% drop YoY >75% drop YoY -31% -92% 8% 2%
Property & Industrial Estate
PWON Jul-20 25-50% drop YoY 25-50% drop YoY -4% -91% -25% -34%
BSDE Jul-20 <25% drop YoY 51-75% drop YoY -8% -58% -13% -50%
JRPT Jul-20 <25% drop QoQ <25% drop QoQ -2% -7% -5% -2%
LPKR Jul-20 <25% drop QoQ <25% drop QoQ 8% -4329% 10% n.m.
ASRI Jul-20 <25% drop QoQ <25% drop QoQ N/A N/A -9% -85%
Commodities
ANTM 5M20 <25% drop YoY <25% drop YoY -16% n.m -27% n.m
INDY 5M20 <25% drop YoY >75% drop YoY -8% n.m -15% n.m
PTBA 5M20 <25% drop YoY 25-50% drop YoY -4% -21% -3% -14%
ADRO 5M20 <25% drop YoY 25-50% drop YoY -11% -17% -9% -21%
UNTR 5M20 <25% drop YoY 25-50% drop YoY -19% -40% -9% -21%
Taxi Operator
BIRD 6M20 25-50% drop YoY > 75% drop YoY -9% -85% -42% n.m
Note: *Excluding BNLI divestment gain; Disclosures for 1Q20 results and 5M20 (for Banks only) are not displayed here as the detailed results have been separately
published; For Telecom/Towercos, the disclosures revealed that COVID-19 had no material impact on the businesses.
Source: Respective Companies, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id

CORPORATE

Sido Muncul 2Q20: Cost Efficiencies Covered for Export’s Poor Progress (SIDO; Rp1,210; Buy; TP: Rp1,450)

 Domestic sales remained strong in 2Q20 as consumer health products under F&B performed, yet overall growth was
affected by the poor end-demand for Herbal in the Philippines. Overall operating cost efficiency helped SIDO deliver a
10% YoY NPAT growth in 2Q20. We maintain our Buy call with PT of Rp1,450.

 2Q20 Revenue of Rp729bn (+4.7% YoY) came in-line with our estimates and below consensus’ estimates. Quarterly
run-rate in 2Q20 is roughly flat QoQ, where the difficult Tolak Angin sales in the Philippines continued to cause the overall
weakness; export sales contribution remained stable QoQ, implying c.50% YoY sales drop. That said, implied domestic
sales could have still reached high single digit YoY in 2Q20. The export sales drop drove the relatively weaker
performance of Herbal Products, whose sales declined by 2% YoY. Meanwhile, F&B and Pharmaceutical sales still grew at
16% and 6%, respectively; Vit C 1000, powdered drink, and ginger beverages (e.g. Susu Jahe, Kopi Jahe, Jahe Wangi, etc.)
performed well under F&B. Overall 1H20 revenue of Rp1.4tn met 46%/43% of our/consensus’ estimates.

 2Q20 EBIT of Rp223bn (+6.7% YoY) came in-line with our estimates and below consensus’ estimates. Despite the
positive YoY sales growth, 2Q20 gross profit declined by 1.7% YoY as gross margin dropped by 3.3ppt; though long-form
FS is yet to be disclosed, we reckon that the poor Philippines sales contributed to the weakening product mix given
Herbal Products’ higher profitability among all products. EBIT still managed to grow by 6.7% YoY in 2Q20 as operating
cost is cut by 12% YoY (consisting of 7%/21% YoY cuts in selling/G&A expenses); details are yet to be disclosed. 1H20 A&P
spending is also cut to only 8% of sales, much below the maximum target of 13%. Overall 1H20 EBIT of Rp502bn met
47%/43% of our/consensus’ estimates.

 2Q20 NPAT of Rp182bn (+10.3% YoY) came in-line with our and consensus’ estimates. As the expectedly poor export
performance was netted off by the cost efficiencies, NPAT managed to grow by 10% YoY in 2Q20. 1H20 NPAT of
Rp413.8bn met 47.5%/46.7% of our/consensus’ estimates.

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 Equity Research | 21 July 2020

2Q20 RESULTS SUMMARY

% of % of
Rp bn 6M20 6M19 % YoY 2Q20 2Q19 % YoY 1Q20 % QoQ
MANSEK CONS
Net sales 1,459.7 1,410.1 3.5% 729.0 696.4 4.7% 730.7 -0.2% 46.1% 43.5%
COGS (678.4) (651.9) 4.1% (355.2) (316.3) 12.3% (323.2) 9.9% 47.6%
Gross profit 781.3 758.2 3.1% 373.8 380.1 -1.7% 407.5 -8.3% 44.8% 42.5%
Selling (187.7) (186.4) 0.7% (102.3) (109.9) -6.9% (85.4) 19.8% 37.6%
General and
(91.1) (105.5) -13.6% (47.9) (60.8) -21.1% (43.2) 10.9% 48.6%
administrative
Operating profit 502.5 466.3 7.8% 223.6 209.5 6.7% 278.9 -19.8% 47.5% 43.3%
Pretax profit 533.2 498.7 6.9% 233.0 224.1 4.0% 300.1 -22.4% 47.7% 45.1%
Income tax (119.4) (124.6) -4.2% (50.8) (58.8) -13.7% (68.6) -26.0% 48.6%
Net profit 413.8 374.1 10.6% 182.3 165.2 10.3% 231.5 -21.3% 47.5% 46.7%

Gross margin 53.5% 53.8% -0.2% 51.3% 54.6% -3.3% 55.8% -4.5%
Operating margin 34.4% 33.1% 1.4% 30.7% 30.1% 0.6% 38.2% -7.5%
Pre-tax margin 36.5% 35.4% 1.2% 32.0% 32.2% -0.2% 41.1% -9.1%
Net margin 28.3% 26.5% 1.8% 25.0% 23.7% 1.3% 31.7% -6.7%
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate, Bloomberg

Lakshmi Rowter (+6221 5296 9549) lakshmi.rowter@mandirisek.co.id

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id

MARKET

Market Recap July 20th 2020; JCI 5,051.11 Points -28.48 pts (-0.56%); Valued $370mn; Mkt Cap $381bn; USD/IDR
14,853

 TOP TURNOVER: BBRI BBCA BBNI TLKM TOWR BBTN INDF LSIP BMRI ICBP TKIM ASII BWPT INKP DMAS HMSP PTBA AALI
UNVR (47%)

 ADVANCING SECTOR: plantation+3%; telco+0.4%; consumer+0.1%

 DECLINING SECTOR: auto-1.7%; mining-1.3%; property-1%; financial & construction-0.6%; cement-0.1%

 In Asia, China stocks led the gain and jumped 2.5%, led by financial firms, after regulators moved to bolster the market by
lifting the equity investment cap for insurers and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among brokerages and mutual
fund houses. European markets were set to open higher with pan-region EuroSTOXX 50 futures, German DAX futures, and
FTSE futures all trading up 0.2%, reversing earlier losses during Asia trade. In the US, E-mini futures for the S&P 500 were
down 0.5%. Dutch PM Mark Rutte said EU leaders were making progress but warned discussions could still fall apart,
while summit chairman Charles Michel urged them to make one last push on “mission impossible”. At Indo stock market,
the CPO plays acted as buffer (BWPT+14.7% PALM+5.9% SIMP+5.3% LSIP+4.8% DSNG+4.1% AALI+2.7% SSMS+1.2%) as
palm-oil futures gained 8.4% this week and posted biggest advance since Nov 2016, besides closing at highest level in
almost five months (+3.7% to MYR 2614). Then a combination of lower crop yields and output dips at major Indonesia
planters also provided support to the price. Indonesian planters such as Wilmar, Golden Agri and First Resources foreseen
flat to single-digit production growth this year, after recording a combined 4% decline in crude palm-oil production and
7% deterioration in average yields last year. Indo production grew by only 800k metric tons to 43.8mn in 2019, according
to Oil World, with average yield falling from 3.52 tons per mature hectares in 2018 to 3.43 tons. At the same time, both
INAF (cls+7.6%) and KAEF (cls+7.4%) surged on news report that a COVID-19 vaccine from a Chinese company Sinovac
has arrived and will soon enter the third phase of clinical trials. While, ASII contributed the most to the index’s decline,
declining 1.9%. The JCI fell 0.5% at 5053 level. Market turnover (excluding $15MN PYFA; $10MN ULTJ crossing) declined to

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 Equity Research | 21 July 2020

$370MN. Foreign participants declined to 16% and came up better seller for 18%. Losers beat gainers by 5 to 2. In
commodities, spot gold eased a tad to $1807.6 an ounce to hover near a nine-year top. Oil prices fell, unnerved by the
prospect that a recovery in fuel demand could be derailed by rising the COVID-19 cases. WTI and Brent were both down
25 cents to $40.34 per barrel and $42.89 per barrel, respectively. The 10-year govt bond yield rose 2 bps to 7.09%. The IDR
weakened to a two-month low at 14853 level as a succession of interest-rate cuts eroded the nation’s yield advantage.
Bank Indonesia’s new burden-sharing arrangement with the government to cope with the fallout of the Covid-19
pandemic puts the central bank’s hard-earned reputation and Indonesia’s macro-stability at risk. Global funds bought a
net $69.4MN in Indo bonds on July 15th, a sixth day of inflows; and sold a net $27.1MN in country’s equities on July 17th.

Sales Team +6221 527 5375

FROM THE PRESS

Indosat (ISAT) appointed Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulla Al Thani as new President Commissioner
Indosat Ooredoo (ISAT IJ) appointed Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulla Al Thani as new President Commissioner during AGM
yesterday. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulla Al Thani is Vice CEO of Ooredoo Group and CEO of Ooredoo Qatar since Mar-20.
(Berita Satu)

XL Axiata (EXCL) expands XL Home service to East Java

XL Axiata expands XL Home service to several big cities in East Java such as Surabaya, Sidoarjo, Gresik, and Malang. XL Axiata
collaborated with fiber optic provider, PT Mega Akses Persada (FiberStar), to expand XL Home service in East Java. The
company will also expand its XL Home service in Medan by the end of this month. (Liputan 6)

Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 6 of 10

 Equity Research | 21 July 2020

Indices and Fund Flows Currencies and Bonds Major Commodities

YTD Chg YTD YTD

Indices Last Chg (%) Currency Last Chg (%) Last Chg (%)
(%) Chg (%) Chg (%)

JCI 5,051.1 -0.6 -19.8 Rp/US$ 14,785 +0.56 -6.4 Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bl) 40.81 +0.5 -33.2
Dow Jones 26,680.9 +0.0 -6.5 US$/EUR 1.145 +0.18 -2.1 Copper (US$/mt) 6,494 +0.6 +5.6
Nikkei 22,717.5 +0.1 -4.0 YEN/US$ 107.27 +0.23 +1.2 Nickel (US$/mt) 13,194 +0.1 -5.4
Hang Seng 25,058.0 -0.1 -11.1 SGD/US$ 1.389 -0.09 -3.1 Gold (US$/oz) 1,818 +0.4 +19.8
STI 2,616.3 -0.1 -18.8 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 17,360 +0.2 +1.1
Ishares indo 18.6 -1.3 -27.5 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 2,661 +1.8 -12.2
Coal (US$/ton) 52.0 -0.4 -23.2
Foreign YTD
YTD Gov. Bond Chg
Fund Flows Last Chg Last Chg Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 154.0 +0.7 -7.4
Chg Yield (bps)
(US$mn) (bps)
Soybean oil
Equity Flow +16.5 -1,143 5Yr 6.30 +2 -13 29.93 +0.0 -13.2
(US$/100gallons)
Bonds Flow +117.5 -7,283 10Yr 7.08 +1 +2 Baltic Dry Index 1,710.0 +1.0 +56.9

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 Equity Research | 21 July 2020

Equity Valuation
Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
MANSEK universe 5,051 5,540 9.7 3,725,223 188,816 259,209 19.7 14.4 2.0 1.9 13.0 11.4 -25.6% 37.3% 3.4% 2.6%
Banking 1,376,499 63,760 102,414 21.6 13.4 2.0 1.8 N.A. N.A. -34.2% 60.6% 3.2% 1.6%
BBCA Neutral 30,700 26,500 (13.7) 756,909 22,167 29,781 34.1 25.4 4.3 3.8 N.A. N.A. -22.4% 34.3% 1.8% 1.2%
BBNI Buy 4,540 5,900 30.0 84,665 7,073 15,323 12.0 5.5 0.8 0.7 N.A. N.A. -54.0% 116.6% 4.5% 2.1%
BBRI Buy 3,050 3,000 (1.6) 376,060 20,229 35,699 18.6 10.5 2.0 1.7 N.A. N.A. -41.1% 76.5% 5.5% 1.6%
BBTN Buy 1,240 1,350 8.9 13,132 1,236 1,554 10.6 8.5 0.8 0.7 N.A. N.A. 490.6% 25.7% 4.3% 2.2%
BDMN Buy 2,730 4,000 46.5 26,166 2,703 4,752 9.7 5.5 0.6 0.5 N.A. N.A. -33.6% 75.8% 5.4% 3.6%
BJBR Buy 875 860 (1.7) 8,609 1,260 1,438 6.8 6.0 0.8 0.7 N.A. N.A. -19.2% 14.1% 10.7% 10.8%
BJTM Buy 520 590 13.5 7,801 1,146 1,434 6.8 5.4 0.8 0.8 N.A. N.A. -16.8% 25.2% 9.3% 9.3%
BNGA Buy 785 840 7.0 19,728 2,340 4,211 8.4 4.7 0.5 0.5 N.A. N.A. -35.8% 80.0% 7.4% 4.7%
BNLI Sell 1,280 430 (66.4) 35,895 909 1,494 39.5 24.0 1.5 1.4 N.A. N.A. -39.4% 64.4% 0.0% 0.0%
PNBN Buy 800 1,100 37.5 19,270 1,976 3,508 9.8 5.5 0.5 0.4 N.A. N.A. -40.4% 77.5% 0.0% 0.0%
BTPS Buy 3,160 3,200 1.3 24,344 1,189 1,547 20.5 15.7 3.9 3.2 N.A. N.A. -15.1% 30.1% 1.1% 1.0%
BFIN Buy 262 900 243.5 3,921 1,532 1,674 2.6 2.3 0.5 0.4 N.A. N.A. 6.4% 9.2% 11.0% 11.7%
Construction & materials 167,328 8,209 11,196 20.4 14.9 1.3 1.2 11.7 9.4 -33.4% 36.4% 2.1% 1.7%
INTP Buy 12,000 14,500 20.8 44,175 1,673 2,003 26.4 22.1 1.8 1.7 11.8 10.3 -8.9% 19.8% 1.5% 1.3%
SMGR Buy 9,450 11,020 16.6 56,053 2,520 2,825 22.2 19.8 1.7 1.6 9.2 8.6 5.4% 12.1% 2.2% 1.7%
ADHI Neutral 625 1,120 79.2 2,226 619 593 3.6 3.8 0.4 0.3 4.0 4.2 -6.8% -4.2% 6.0% 5.6%
PTPP Buy 960 2,050 113.5 5,952 981 1,320 6.1 4.5 0.5 0.5 5.1 4.8 2.4% 34.6% 4.8% 4.9%
WIKA Buy 1,205 2,500 107.5 10,797 1,671 1,871 6.5 5.8 0.7 0.6 5.0 3.5 -17.2% 12.0% 3.1% 3.5%
WSKT Buy 710 1,010 42.3 9,501 -948 -869 -10.0 -10.9 0.9 0.9 21.9 17.5 N/M 8.3% -2.0% -1.8%
WTON Buy 290 700 141.4 2,527 586 678 4.3 3.7 0.7 0.6 3.2 2.9 14.3% 15.7% 6.1% 7.0%
WSBP Buy 202 360 78.2 5,325 842 954 6.3 5.6 0.7 0.6 5.6 5.0 4.5% 13.3% 7.6% 7.9%
JSMR Buy 4,240 5,900 39.2 30,773 266 1,822 115.6 16.9 1.7 1.5 23.6 12.5 -87.9% 584.6% 1.4% 0.2%
Consumer staples 943,168 40,952 51,121 23.0 18.4 4.9 4.5 15.1 12.3 -15.5% 24.8% 3.7% 3.2%
ICBP Buy 9,325 10,300 10.5 108,747 5,389 6,005 20.2 18.1 3.9 3.5 11.9 11.1 6.9% 11.4% 2.3% 2.5%
INDF Buy 6,600 8,450 28.0 57,948 5,245 5,573 11.0 10.4 1.4 1.3 7.1 6.6 6.9% 6.3% 4.2% 4.5%
MYOR Buy 2,220 2,650 19.4 49,637 2,861 2,745 17.3 18.1 4.2 3.7 12.3 11.0 43.9% -4.1% 1.5% 2.2%
UNVR Buy 8,125 9,500 16.9 309,969 7,495 8,038 41.4 38.6 61.1 58.6 29.5 27.3 1.4% 7.2% 2.4% 2.4%
GGRM Buy 49,300 63,450 28.7 94,858 7,422 10,321 12.8 9.2 1.8 1.6 8.3 6.5 -31.8% 39.1% 5.3% 5.3%
HMSP Buy 1,835 2,400 30.8 213,444 8,342 13,384 25.6 15.9 7.0 6.0 19.9 11.9 -39.2% 60.4% 6.3% 3.9%
KLBF Buy 1,485 1,650 11.1 69,610 2,764 2,985 25.2 23.3 4.0 3.7 17.1 15.6 10.2% 8.0% 2.0% 2.1%
SIDO Buy 1,210 1,450 19.8 18,150 872 947 20.8 19.2 5.7 5.4 15.4 14.2 7.9% 8.6% 4.0% 4.6%
MLBI Buy 9,875 14,650 48.4 20,807 563 1,124 37.0 18.5 25.9 15.2 18.7 12.0 -53.3% 99.7% 4.3% 2.7%
Healthcare 50,756 1,042 1,271 48.7 39.9 3.8 3.6 16.7 14.2 3.5% 22.0% 0.1% 0.2%
MIKA Buy 2,320 2,600 12.1 33,758 693 815 48.7 41.4 7.2 6.5 32.7 27.2 -5.1% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0%
SILO Buy 4,990 7,150 43.3 8,109 44 100 182.7 81.0 1.3 1.3 6.7 5.3 107.0% 125.6% 0.0% 0.0%
HEAL Buy 2,990 5,200 73.9 8,889 304 355 29.2 25.0 3.9 3.4 11.0 9.6 19.4% 16.7% 0.8% 0.9%
Consumer discretionary 295,340 18,209 25,233 16.2 11.7 1.5 1.4 9.2 8.3 -39.6% 38.6% 4.3% 3.0%
ACES Neutral 1,555 1,500 (3.5) 26,668 711 1,055 37.5 25.3 5.4 4.7 28.8 20.4 -31.0% 48.5% 1.9% 1.3%
LPPF Buy 1,295 1,800 39.0 3,779 50 497 74.9 7.6 2.1 1.7 6.2 2.4 -96.3% 884.6% 0.0% 0.4%
MAPA Buy 2,220 3,850 73.4 6,328 54 606 116.2 10.4 2.1 1.7 15.8 5.4 -92.1% 1013.2% 0.0% 0.3%
MAPI Buy 685 1,000 46.0 11,371 -1,704 543 -6.7 20.9 2.7 2.4 -111.7 7.1 N/M N/M 1.8% 0.0%
RALS Buy 555 700 26.1 3,938 -132 143 -29.9 27.6 1.1 1.0 -44.3 9.2 N/M N/M 9.7% -2.2%
ERAA Buy 1,450 1,500 3.4 4,626 140 355 33.0 13.0 0.9 0.9 14.0 9.0 -52.5% 153.2% 0.6% 1.5%
ASII Buy 5,100 5,000 (2.0) 206,466 14,710 17,216 14.0 12.0 1.3 1.3 9.0 9.1 -32.2% 17.0% 4.7% 3.2%
SCMA Buy 1,220 1,800 47.5 17,968 1,566 1,693 11.5 10.6 3.1 2.8 8.0 7.6 35.7% 8.1% 6.1% 6.6%
MNCN Buy 880 2,200 150.0 10,915 2,427 2,593 4.5 4.2 0.8 0.7 3.4 2.9 24.1% 6.8% 3.3% 3.6%
MSIN Buy 256 650 153.9 1,332 267 316 5.0 4.2 0.9 0.8 2.9 2.8 16.3% 18.1% 10.0% 11.8%
PZZA Buy 645 900 39.5 1,949 119 216 16.3 9.0 1.4 1.3 6.2 4.5 -40.3% 80.6% 5.1% 3.1%
Commodities 228,812 21,424 22,942 10.7 10.0 1.0 0.9 4.1 3.6 -11.8% 7.1% 3.7% 3.8%
UNTR Buy 18,400 22,500 22.3 68,634 8,962 9,195 7.7 7.5 1.1 1.0 3.4 2.9 -20.8% 2.6% 3.9% 4.0%
ADRO* Neutral 1,130 1,350 19.5 36,144 372 353 6.8 7.2 0.6 0.6 2.9 2.7 -7.9% -5.2% 5.2% 4.8%
HRUM* Neutral 1,185 1,300 9.7 3,041 17 14 12.2 15.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 -0.2 -5.9% -21.7% 4.5% 3.5%
INDY* Neutral 940 910 (3.2) 4,898 2 6 207.7 54.1 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.3 N/M 286.9% 0.1% 0.5%

Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 8 of 10

 Equity Research | 21 July 2020

Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
ITMG* Neutral 7,675 10,450 36.2 8,416 100 101 5.9 5.9 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.6 -20.8% 0.9% 14.5% 14.5%
PTBA Neutral 2,080 2,350 13.0 23,967 3,482 3,496 6.8 6.8 1.3 1.2 4.2 4.2 -18.3% 0.4% 10.9% 10.9%
ANTM Buy 650 700 7.6 15,620 -22 197 -717.4 79.4 0.7 0.7 13.2 12.1 N/M N/M 0.0% 0.4%
INCO* Buy 3,130 3,500 11.8 31,101 88 133 24.8 16.5 1.1 1.0 7.0 5.6 53.0% 51.1% 0.0% 0.0%
TINS Neutral 630 670 6.3 4,692 -420 246 -11.2 19.0 0.9 0.9 37.0 9.0 31.3% N/M -3.1% 1.8%
MDKA* Buy 1,475 1,450 (1.7) 32,299 80 85 28.3 26.8 3.9 3.5 10.2 9.4 9.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Property & Industrial Estate 84,487 7,211 9,744 11.7 8.7 0.6 0.6 8.5 7.8 -4.7% 35.1% 2.4% 2.0%
ASRI Sell 131 80 (38.9) 2,574 150 938 17.1 2.7 0.2 0.2 6.7 5.2 -85.2% 524.8% 1.5% 1.5%
BSDE Buy 715 1,160 62.2 15,138 1,399 2,050 10.8 7.4 0.5 0.5 9.4 8.8 -54.4% 46.5% 0.0% 0.6%
CTRA Buy 625 1,120 79.2 11,600 832 1,094 13.9 10.6 0.7 0.7 9.6 8.2 -28.2% 31.5% 1.2% 1.1%
JRPT Buy 412 670 62.6 5,665 997 1,065 5.7 5.3 0.7 0.6 5.0 4.4 -1.9% 6.7% 4.7% 0.1%
PWON Buy 418 670 60.3 20,131 1,791 2,395 11.2 8.4 1.2 1.1 7.5 6.0 -34.1% 33.7% 1.4% 1.4%
SMRA Buy 570 960 68.4 8,223 420 604 19.6 13.6 1.1 1.0 9.8 8.7 -18.5% 43.8% 0.9% 0.9%
LPKR Neutral 138 200 44.9 9,742 74 391 131.9 24.9 0.3 0.3 10.6 10.7 N/M 429.7% 0.7% 0.7%
DMAS Buy 212 390 84.0 10,218 1,441 1,086 7.1 9.4 1.4 1.4 6.6 9.0 81.9% -24.7% 11.3% 9.6%
BEST Neutral 124 130 4.8 1,196 107 122 11.2 9.8 0.3 0.3 6.0 8.7 -72.0% 14.2% 2.9% 0.8%
Telco 431,514 23,252 25,821 18.6 16.7 2.8 2.6 6.1 5.7 -10.4% 11.1% 4.4% 4.6%
EXCL Buy 2,870 3,400 18.5 30,674 2,037 912 15.1 33.6 1.5 1.4 6.1 5.9 185.9% -55.2% 0.7% 2.0%
TLKM Buy 3,060 3,800 24.2 303,130 18,520 20,942 16.4 14.5 2.9 2.8 5.6 5.1 -5.0% 13.1% 5.5% 5.5%
ISAT Buy 2,570 3,000 16.7 13,965 -1,760 -1,027 -7.9 -13.6 1.3 1.4 5.1 4.5 N/M 41.7% 0.0% 0.0%
LINK Buy 2,040 5,500 169.6 5,940 980 1,017 6.2 5.9 1.1 1.0 2.8 2.6 -3.3% 3.8% 8.2% 8.6%
TBIG Buy 1,125 1,250 11.1 24,335 1,008 1,194 24.2 20.4 4.5 4.1 11.2 10.5 23.0% 18.4% 2.5% 2.5%
TOWR Buy 1,065 1,070 0.5 53,469 2,468 2,782 21.7 19.2 5.4 4.6 11.8 10.8 5.4% 12.8% 2.2% 2.2%
Chemical 1,733 136 163 12.8 10.6 0.5 0.5 6.0 5.3 29.5% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AGII Buy 565 700 23.9 1,733 136 163 12.8 10.6 0.5 0.5 6.0 5.3 29.5% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Airlines 2,372 540 837 4.4 2.8 0.4 0.4 4.1 2.5 30.0% 55.0% 0.0% 0.0%
GMFI* Neutral 84 275 227.1 2,372 38 59 4.4 2.8 0.4 0.4 4.1 2.5 26.1% 56.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Transportation 2,352 -175 251 -13.4 9.4 0.5 0.4 10.2 4.2 -155.7% N/M -1.9% 2.7%
BIRD Buy 940 1,700 80.9 2,352 -175 251 -13.4 9.4 0.5 0.4 10.2 4.2 N/M N/M -1.9% 2.7%
Poultry 113,228 2,746 5,083 41.2 22.3 3.3 2.9 17.4 12.0 -50.5% 85.1% 1.8% 1.0%
CPIN Buy 6,025 5,500 (8.7) 98,798 2,058 3,378 48.0 29.2 4.6 4.1 24.7 17.7 -43.4% 64.2% 1.6% 0.9%
JPFA Buy 1,115 1,100 (1.3) 13,075 646 1,566 20.2 8.4 1.2 1.1 8.3 5.2 -63.4% 142.4% 4.0% 1.5%
MAIN Buy 605 675 11.6 1,354 43 139 31.7 9.7 0.6 0.6 5.8 4.6 -72.0% 225.6% 1.0% 3.3%
Oil and Gas 27,635 1,511 3,133 18.3 8.8 0.7 0.7 6.6 5.3 61.2% 107.4% 2.2% 4.5%
PGAS* Buy 1,140 1,700 49.1 27,635 106 221 18.3 8.8 0.7 0.7 6.6 5.3 56.4% 109.1% 2.2% 4.5%
Note:
- *) net profit in USD mn
- U/R means Under Review
- n/a means Not Available
- N/M means Not Meaningful
- N.A means Not Applicable

Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 9 of 10

 Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk
Menara Mandiri Tower I, 25th floor, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 54 – 55, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 5374 (Equity Sales)

RESEARCH
Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9415
Tjandra Lienandjaja Deputy Head of Equity Research, Banking tjandra.lienandjaja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9617
Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Metal Mining, Chemical ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9682
Kresna Hutabarat Telecom, Media kresna.hutabarat@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9542
Lakshmi Rowter Healthcare, Consumer, Retail lakshmi.rowter@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9549
Robin Sutanto Property, Building Material robin.sutanto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9572
Edbert Surya Construction, Transportation edbert.surya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9623
Silvony Gathrie Banking, Research Assistant silvony.gathrie@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9544
Riyanto Hartanto Poultry, Research Assistant riyanto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9488
Henry Tedja Research Assistant henry.tedja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9434
Wesley Louis Alianto Research Assistant wesley.alianto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9510
Leo Putera Rinaldy Chief Economist leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9406
Imanuel Reinaldo Economist imanuel.reinaldo@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9651

INSTITUTIONAL SALES
Silva Halim Managing Director silva.halim@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Lokman Lie Head of Equity Capital Market lokman.lie@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales andrew.handaya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Feliciana Ramonda Institutional Sales feliciana.ramonda@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Henry Pranoto Institutional Sales henry.pranoto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Kevin Giarto Institutional Sales kevin.giarto@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi Institutional Sales sharon.tjahjadi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Talitha Medha Anindya Institutional Sales talitha.anindya@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Angga Aditya Assaf Institutional Sales angga.assaf@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Ilona Carissa Institutional Sales Ilona.simanungkalit@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing kusnadi.widjaja@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing edwin.setiadi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Jane Theodoven Sukardi Equity Dealing jane.sukardi@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375
Michael Taarea Equity Dealing michael.taarea@mandirisek.co.id +6221 527 5375

RETAIL SALES
Andreas M. Gunawidjaja Head Retail Equities andreas@mandirisek.co.id 6221 5296 9693
Boy Triyono Jakarta boy.triyono@mandirisek.co.id 6221 5296 5678
Iedprima Intan Maradi Online Jakarta intan.maradi@mandirisek.co.id 6221 5296 9516
Ruwie Medan ruwie@mandirisek.co.id 6261 8050 1825
Linawati Surabaya linawati@mandirisek.co.id 6231 535 7218
Maulidia Osviana Lampung maulidia.osviana@mandirisek.co.id 62721 476 135
Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id 62711 319 900
Dhanan Febrie Handita Bandung dhanan.handita@mandirisek.co.id 6222 426 5088
Yuri Ariadi Pontianak yuri.ariadi@mandirisek.co.id 62561 582 293
Yogiswara Perdana Yogyakarta yogiswara.perdana@mandirisek.co.id 62274 560 596
Achmad Rasyid Bali achmad.rasyid@mandirisek.co.id 62361 475 3066
www.most.co.id care_center@mandirisek.co.id 14032

INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last
published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower).

DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX) and Mandiri Sekuritas is registered and
supervised by the Financial Services Authority (OJK). Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its
judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its
accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein
to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will
seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For further information please contact our number
62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275374.

ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the
companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be
influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.