Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
El Bru
El Bru
This paper analyzes the country risk of the Peruvian economy, emphasizing the effect of
the price of copper. A literature review of the macroeconomic variables and international
factors that influence the country risk is made, in addition its relation with the price of
copper and the transmission mechanisms are studied. First, an X model is analyzed to
determine the relationship of the variables with the Embig, but it does not comply with the
homocedasticity assumption, mainly because the Embig variable is a financial variable, so a
GARCH model is proposed. The main results are that the price of copper, the exchange
rate, the relationship between Debt and GDP, have a significant impact on Embig. The
Copper and Liquidity variables in dollars have a negative effect on the Country Risk.
Besides, Embig responds significantly to the volatility in the international economic
activity, measured by the American bonds with a three-month maturity, and the VIX.