Precio venta 1,000,000

Costo variable unitario 600,000

Niveel ventas 5 años 10,000 unidades anuales

Opcion 1 dimsminuir precio unitario

Nuevo precio 950,000

Opcion 2 mantener precio e incrementar gastos publicidad

Publicidad 800,000,000 anual

TREMA 25%

Incremento
unidades
anuales
Estratégia Probabilidad Resultado vendidas
Opción 1 1.0 éxito 4,000
0.8 éxito 3,000
Opción 2 0.2 Fracaso 1,500

Incremento
unidades
anuales
vendidas con
respecto al año
Estratégia Probabilidad Reacción del com2
0.7 Reacciona 1000
Opción 1 0.3 No reacciona 2000
0.6 éxito reacciona 1500
0.4 éxito no reacciona 3000
0.2 fracaso reacciona 600
Opción 2 0.8 fracaso no reaccio 800

Año 1 2 3 4 5
Unidadesesperadas 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000

Opción 1

Unidades 10,000 14,000 18,000 22,000 26,000

Unidades * probabilida 10,000 14,000 18,000 22,000 26,000

Reacciona
Unidades 10,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000
 Ingresos 9,500,000,000 13,300,000,000 14,250,000,000 15,200,000,000 16,150,000,000

Costos 6,000,000,000 8,400,000,000 9,000,000,000 9,600,000,000 10,200,000,000

Utilidad 3,500,000,000 4,900,000,000 5,250,000,000 5,600,000,000 5,950,000,000

Flujo 2 primeros añ 3,500,000,000 4,900,000,000 - - -

Flujo 3 últimos años - - 5,250,000,000 5,600,000,000 5,950,000,000

No Reacciona
Unidades 10,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Ingresos 9,500,000,000 13,300,000,000 15,200,000,000 17,100,000,000 19,000,000,000

Costos 6,000,000,000 8,400,000,000 9,600,000,000 10,800,000,000 12,000,000,000

Utilidad 3,500,000,000 4,900,000,000 5,600,000,000 6,300,000,000 7,000,000,000

Flujo 2 primeros añ 3,500,000,000 4,900,000,000 - - -

Flujo 3 últimos años - - 5,600,000,000 6,300,000,000 7,000,000,000

Opción 2

Éxito
Unidades 10,000 13,000 16,000 19,000 22,000
Unidades * probabilida 8,000 10,400 12,800 15,200 17,600

Reacciona
Unidades 10,000 13,000 14,500 16,000 17,500

Ingresos 10,000,000,000 13,000,000,000 14,500,000,000 16,000,000,000 17,500,000,000

Costos 6,000,000,000 7,800,000,000 8,700,000,000 9,600,000,000 10,500,000,000

Publicidad 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000

Utilidad 3,200,000,000 4,400,000,000 5,000,000,000 5,600,000,000 6,200,000,000

Flujo 2 primeros añ 3,200,000,000 4,400,000,000 - - -

Flujo 3 últimos años - - 5,000,000,000 5,600,000,000 6,200,000,000

No Reacciona
Unidades 10,000 13,000 16,000 19,000 22,000

Ingresos 10,000,000,000 13,000,000,000 16,000,000,000 19,000,000,000 22,000,000,000

Costos 6,000,000,000 7,800,000,000 9,600,000,000 11,400,000,000 13,200,000,000

Publicidad 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000

Utilidad 3,200,000,000 4,400,000,000 5,600,000,000 6,800,000,000 8,000,000,000

Flujo 2 primeros añ 3,200,000,000 4,400,000,000 - - -

Flujo 3 últimos años - - 5,600,000,000 6,800,000,000 8,000,000,000
 Fracaso
Unidades 10,000 11,500 13,000 14,500 16,000

Reacciona
Unidades 10,000 11,500 12,100 12,700 13,300

Ingresos 10,000,000,000 11,500,000,000 12,100,000,000 12,700,000,000 13,300,000,000

Costos 6,000,000,000 6,900,000,000 7,260,000,000 7,620,000,000 7,980,000,000

Publicidad 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000

Utilidad 3,200,000,000 3,800,000,000 4,040,000,000 4,280,000,000 4,520,000,000

Flujo 2 primeros añ 3,200,000,000 3,800,000,000 - - -

Flujo 3 últimos años - - 4,040,000,000 4,280,000,000 4,520,000,000

No Reacciona
Unidades 10,000 11,500 12,300 13,100 13,900

Ingresos 10,000,000,000 11,500,000,000 12,300,000,000 13,100,000,000 13,900,000,000

Costos 6,000,000,000 6,900,000,000 7,380,000,000 7,860,000,000 8,340,000,000

Publicidad 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000 800,000,000

Utilidad 3,200,000,000 3,800,000,000 4,120,000,000 4,440,000,000 4,760,000,000

Flujo 2 primeros añ 3,200,000,000 3,800,000,000 - - -

Flujo 3 últimos años - - 4,120,000,000 4,440,000,000 4,760,000,000

Primeros 2 años probabilidad

Reacciona

Opción 1 13,110,451,200 éxito 13,110,451,200 1.0

No reacciona

Reacciona

éxito 12,816,793,600 0.8

No reacciona

Opción 2 12,341,993,472
 Reacciona

Fracaso 10,442,792,960 0.2

No reacciona
VNA
12,867,456,000

5,936,000,000
6,931,456,000

13,677,440,000

5,936,000,000
7,741,440,000

12,261,376,000

5,376,000,000
6,885,376,000

13,649,920,000

5,376,000,000
8,273,920,000
 10,294,681,600

4,992,000,000
5,302,681,600

10,479,820,800

4,992,000,000
5,487,820,800

Siguientes años probabilidad

12,867,456,000 0.7

13,677,440,000 0.3

12,261,376,000 0.6

13,649,920,000 0.4
10,294,681,600 0.2

10,479,820,800 0.8