Periodos Demanda Pronostico Error Error absoluto

(e(t))²
(t) (Dt) (Ft) (e(t)) l(e(t))l
1 100.0
2 130.0
3 90.0 115.0 -25.0 25.0 625.0
4 110.0 110.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5 150.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 2500.0
6 140.0 130.0 10.0 10.0 100.0
7 180.0 145.0 35.0 35.0 1225.0
8 130.0 160.0 -30.0 30.0 900.0
9 120.0 155.0 -35.0 35.0 1225.0
10 100.0 125.0 -25.0 25.0 625.0
11 110.0
Error procentual
Medidas del desempeño del pronostico
% e(t)

MAD MSE MAPE Tr

28% Promedio movil n=2 26.3 900.0 21% -0.8

0%
33%
7%
19%
23%
Pronostico movil n=2
29% 200.0
25% 180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
Ventas

100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Periodos
9 10 11
Periodos Demanda Pronostico Error Error absoluto
(e(t))²
(t) (Dt) (Ft) (e(t)) l(e(t))l
1 100.0
2 130.0
3 90.0
4 110.0 106.7 3.3 3.3 11.1
5 150.0 110.0 40.0 40.0 1600.0
6 140.0 116.7 23.3 23.3 544.4
7 180.0 133.3 46.7 46.7 2177.8
8 130.0 156.7 -26.7 26.7 711.1
9 120.0 150.0 -30.0 30.0 900.0
10 100.0 143.3 -43.3 43.3 1877.8
11 116.7
Error procentual
Medidas del desempeño del pronostico
% e(t)

MAD MSE MAPE Tr

Promedio movil n=3 30.5 1117.5 23% 0.4

3%
27%
17%
26%
21%
Pronostico movil n=3
25% 200.0
43% 180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
Ventas

100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Periodos
=3

7 8 9 10 11
Periodos Demanda Pronostico Error Error absoluto
(e(t))²
(t) (Dt) (Ft) (e(t)) l(e(t))l
1 100.0
2 130.0
3 90.0
4 110.0
5 150.0 107.5 42.5 42.5 1806.3
6 140.0 120.0 20.0 20.0 400.0
7 180.0 122.5 57.5 57.5 3306.3
8 130.0 145.0 -15.0 15.0 225.0
9 120.0 150.0 -30.0 30.0 900.0
10 100.0 142.5 -42.5 42.5 1806.3
11 132.5
Error procentual
Medidas del desempeño del pronostico
% e(t)

MAD MSE MAPE Tr

Promedio movil n=4 34.6 1407.3 26% 0.9

28%
14%
32%
12%
Pronostico movil n=4
25% 200.0
43% 180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
Ventas

100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Periodos
=4

7 8 9 10 11
Periodos Demanda Pronostico Error Error absoluto
(e(t))²
(t) (Dt) (Ft) (e(t)) l(e(t))l
1 100.0
2 130.0
3 90.0
4 110.0
5 150.0
6 140.0 116.0 24.0 24.0 576.0
7 180.0 145.0 35.0 35.0 1225.0
8 130.0 160.0 -30.0 30.0 900.0
9 120.0 155.0 -35.0 35.0 1225.0
10 100.0 125.0 -25.0 25.0 625.0
11 110.0
Error procentual
Medidas del desempeño del pronostico
% e(t)

MAD MSE MAPE Tr

Promedio movil n=5 29.8 910.2 23% -1.0

17%
19%
23%
Pronostico de movil n=5
29% 200.0
25% 180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
Ventas

100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Periodos
9 10 11