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Daily Commodity Market Update as on Monday, January 03, 2011

PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG


MCX
GOLD 20740 20764 20735 20750 0.11 Gold edged lower on Monday, after finishing 2010 with a
SILVER 46250 46308 46228 46264 0.10 near 30 percent gain, pressured by a rebound in the
SPOT $ dollar, while silver retreated from a 30-year high hit
GOLD 1419.45 1421.10 1413.90 1417.50 -0.14 earlier in the day.
SILVER 30.84 30.93 30.63 30.78 -0.26
PLATINUM 1767.75 1771.50 1761.50 1771.50 0.21

ENERGY COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG Crude oil eased but held above the $91 a barrel mark on
MCX optimism the gathering momentum in the global
economic recovery would drive demand growth and send
CRUDE 4094 4100 4086 4087 -0.02
prices into triple-digit territory later this year. Warmer
N.GAS 197.50 198.90 197.50 198.80 0.50
weather forecasts after the blizzard that pummeled the
U.S. Northeast have cast doubts on sustained domestic
SPOT $ d
demand d ffor heating
h ti ffuel,
l and
d couldld cap gains
i iin oil
il
CRUDE 89.95 92.06 89.05 91.45 1.67 prices. Nat.Gas look to trade in the range 195-204 with a
positve node. as short-covering and forecasts for colder
h kd i ild
BASEMETAL COMPLEX

NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG


MCX
Base metal last week jjumped p and settled on dollar
COPPER 439 30
439.30 439 70
439.70 438 90
438.90 439 55
439.55 0 01
0.01
weakness, in today’s session market look to trade in the
ZINC 109.95 110.05 109.70 109.85 0.05
range as LME will be closed so no major move is expected
NICKEL 1116.20 1126.50 1116.20 1124.30 0.60 in the market some profit booking can be seen.
LEAD 115.40 115.50 115.25 115.45 0.17
ALUMINIUM 110.75 110.9 110.6 110.8 -0.05

LME LME STOCK


COPPER 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 COPPER 5050 376000
ZINC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ZINC 3075 701700
NICKEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NICKEL -276 135444
LEAD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 LEAD -850 206850
ALUMINIUM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ALUMINIUM 8025 4280600

GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE


SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
20653.49 6176.6 2217.86 1257.64 7964.4 11577.51 10228.92 2808.08 2065.84 23377.65 79.33
0.7 0.68 -0.35 -0.03 0.16 0.07 0 1.76 0.72 1.49 0.32

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OPEN
20740
HIGH
20764
FUTURE

LOW
20735
CLOSE
20750
% CNG
0.11
VOLUME
X GOLD F

1709
OI
16023
RE CNG
22

INTRADAY LEVELS
MCX

Gold look to edged lower,


lower after finishing 2010 with a near 30 percent gain,
gain pressured by a PP
P.P. 20750
rebound in the dollar. The dollar was a touch firmer, after ending a volatile 2010 a bit higher, SUP 1 RES 1
with investors gearing up for gains in early 2011 on expectations the U.S. economic recovery
20735 20764
was gaining momentum. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is
currently indicating 59.21, where as 50DMA is at 20489.36 and gold is trading above the SUP 2 RES 2
same and getting support at 20735 and below could see a test of 20721 level, And resistance 20721 20779
is now likely to be seen at 20764, a move above could see prices testing 20779. SUP 3 RES 3
20706 20793

OPEN
46250
TURE

HIGH
46308
LOW
46228
LVER FUT

CLOSE
46264
% CNG
0.10
VOLUME
2279
OI
15380
MCX SIL

RE CNG
47

INTRADAY LEVELS
Strong last week gains in base metals saw supportive for the silver, Spot silver touched a 30-
year high of $30.93 an ounce earlier, but eased to $30.67. Holdings in the world's largest P.P. 46267
silver-backed exchange-traded fund, iShares Silver Trust, rose for the first time since Dec 17 SUP 1 RES 1
to 10,921.57 tons by Dec 31 from 10,903.34 tons. Now technically market is trading in the 46225 46305
range
g as RSI for 18days y is currently
y indicating
g 70.49,, where as 50DMA is at 42585.76 and SUP 2 RES 2
silver is trading above the same and getting support at 46225 and below could see a test of 46187 46347
46187 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 46305, a move above could see prices
SUP 3 RES 3
testing 46347.
46145 46385

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OPEN
4094
HIGH
X CRUDE FUTURE
E

4100
LOW
4086
CLOSE
4087
% CNG
-0.02
VOLUME
3174
OI
27148
RE CNG
-1

INTRADAY LEVELS
Crude oil eased today y in the morningg session,, but held above the $91 a barrel mark on optimism
p the
MCX

gathering momentum in the global economic recovery would drive demand growth and send prices into PP
P.P. 4091
triple-digit territory later this year. Warmer weather forecasts after the blizzard that pummeled the U.S. SUP 1 RES 1
Northeast have cast doubts on sustained domestic demand for heating fuel, and could cap gains in oil
4082 4096
prices. Iran's OPEC governor said on Friday the global demand for OPEC oil will increase in 2011, oil
ministry website SHANA reported. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is SUP 2 RES 2
currently indicating 55.62, where as 50DMA is at 3986.86 and crude is trading above the same and getting 4077 4105
support at 4082 and below could see a test of 4077 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4096, a
SUP 3 RES 3
move above could see prices testing 4105.
4068 4110

OPEN
439.30
TURE

HIGH
439.70
LOW
438.9
PPER FUT

CLOSE
439.55
% CNG
0.01
VOLUME
2970
OI
34706
MCX COP

RE CNG
0.05

INTRADAY LEVELS

Copper prices have climbed above the USD 9,500/mt mark last week, but will experience consolidations at P.P. 439.4
the mark in the short term. Some bounce can be seen after a strong 7.1 magnitude earthquake hit central SUP 1 RES 1
Chile on Sunday, driving panicked residents from their homes due to fears of a tsunami but causing no
439.1 439.9
injuries or damage. In yesterday's trading session copper has touched the low of 438.9 after opening at
439 3 and finally settled at 439.55.
439.3, 439 55 For today
today's 439 1 a break
s session market is looking to take support at 439.1, SUP 2 RES 2
below could see a test of 438.6 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 439.9, a move above 438.6 440.2
could see prices testing 440.2.
SUP 3 RES 3
438.3 440.7

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OPEN
109.95
HIGH
110.05
FUTURE

LOW
109.7
CLOSE
109.85
% CNG
0.05
VOLUME
CX ZINC F

557
OI
4320
RE CNG
0.05

INTRADAY LEVELS
Zinc yesterday
y y traded with the ppositive node and settled 0.05% up
p at 109.85. LME zinc p
prices
PP
P.P. 109
109.9
9
MC

were not strongly supported by the weakened US dollar index and the positive economic data.
LME zinc prices overnight opened at USD 2,370/mt, with prices trying to touch USD 2,428/mt SUP 1 RES 1
during the day, but finally closed at USD 2,370/mt. In yesterday's trading session zinc has 109.7 110.0
touched the low of 109.7 after opening at 109.95, and finally settled at 109.85. For today's SUP 2 RES 2
session market is looking to take support at 109.7, a break below could see a test of 109.5 109.5 110.2
and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 110, a move above could see prices
SUP 3 RES 3
testing 110.2.
109.3 110.4

OPEN
1116.20
TURE

HIGH
1126.50
LOW
1116.20
CKEL FUT

CLOSE
1124.30
% CNG
0.60
VOLUME
2014
OI
9294
MCX NIC

RE CNG
6.8

INTRADAY LEVELS
Nickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.6% up at 1124.3. Boosted by a
series of upbeat economic reports from the US, LME nickel prices opened at USD 23,900/mt P.P. 1122.3
and closed at USD 24,100/mt overnight, up by USD 195/mt or up by 0.82% from a day SUP 1 RES 1
earlier, with the highest price at USD 24,335/mt and the lowest price at USD 23,900/mt. In 1118.2 1128.5
yesterday's
y y tradingg session nickel has touched the low of 1116.2 after opening
p g at 1116.2,, and SUP 2 RES 2
finally settled at 1124.3. For today's session market is looking to take support at 1118.2, a 1112.0 1132.6
break below could see a test of 1112 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at
SUP 3 RES 3
1128.5, a move above could see prices testing 1132.6.
1107.9 1138.8

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URE
OPEN
110.75
HIGH
ALUMINIUM FUTU

110.90
LOW
110.6
CLOSE
110.8
% CNG
-0.05
VOLUME
289
OI
3320
RE CNG
-0.05

INTRADAY LEVELS
MCX A

Aluminum yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.05%0 05% down at 110.8.
110 8 LME PP
P.P. 110
110.8
8
aluminum prices fluctuated at high levels, and opened at USD 2,448/mt, and later hit a high SUP 1 RES 1
of USD 2,458/mt and closed at USD 2,454/mt, down USD 1/mt compared with the previous
110.6 110.9
trading day. In yesterday's trading session aluminum has touched the low of 110.6 after
opening at 110.75, and finally settled at 110.8. For today's session market is looking to take SUP 2 RES 2
support at 110.6, a break below could see a test of 110.5 and where as resistance is now 110.5 111.1
likely to be seen at 110.9, a move above could see prices testing 111.1. SUP 3 RES 3
110.3 111.2

OPEN
UTURE

197.50
HIGH
198.90
LOW
197.50
T.GAS FU

CLOSE
198.80
% CNG
0.50
VOLUME
1448
OI
17621
RE CNG
MCX NAT

INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.5% up at 198.8 markets is
trading in the range 192-200 as the number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the US slid by 12 P.P. 198.4
this week to 919, its fourth straight weekly decline. Government data this week showed gross
SUP 1 RES 1
domestic gas production slipped in October, its first decline in four months and possible sign
197.9 199.3
producers are shifting focus away from gas due to low prices. Rising output from shale gas
M

has been the primary driver of increased gas production in the last few years
years, Despite a fairly SUP 2 RES 2
cold winter so far, gas inventories are still about 8 percent above average and offer a 197.0 199.8
comfortable cushion to help meet heating demand. For today's session market is looking to SUP 3 RES 3
take support at 197.9, a break below could see a test of 197 and where as resistance is now 196.5 200.7
lik l b 199 3 b ld i i 199 8

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ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE

DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX


MONTH RATE FEB APRIL JUNE MONTH RATE MARCH MAY JULY
FEB 20750 197 377 MARCH 46264 243 376
APRIL 20947 180 MAY 46507 133
JUNE 21127 JULY 46640
Spread between Gold FEB & APR contracts yesterday Spread between Silver MAR & MAY contracts yesterday
ended at 197, we have seen yesterday that the gold ended at 243, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.11% market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.1%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 196 - 205. up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 217 - 249.

DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX


MONTH RATE JAN FEB MARCH MONTH RATE FEB APRIL
JAN 4087 59 113 FEB 439.55 3.00
FEB 4146 54 APRIL 442.55
MARCH 4200
Spread between crude JAN & FEB contracts yesterday Spread between copper FEB & APR contracts yesterday
MARKET

ended at 59, we have seen yesterday that the crude ended at 3, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a negative node and settled - market had traded with a positive node and settled
0.02% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 53 -0.01% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 2.6 -
59. 3.

DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN NICKEL - MCX


SPREAD M

MONTH RATE JAN FEB MONTH RATE JAN FEB


JAN 109.85 1.20 JAN 1124 10.30
FEB 111.05 FEB 1135

Spread between zinc JAN & FEB contracts yesterday ended Spread between nickel JAN & FEB contracts yesterday
at 1.2, we have seen yesterday that the zinc market had ended at 10.30, we have seen yesterday that the nickel
traded with a positive node and settled 0.05% up. Spread market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.6%
yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.8. up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 10.30 - 13.3.
S

DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX


MONTH RATE JAN FEB MONTH RATE JAN FEB
JAN 198.80 2.80 JAN 1209.30 6.00
FEB 201.60 FEB 1215.30

Spread between natural gas JAN & FEB contracts Spread between menthol oil JAN & FEB contracts
yesterday ended at 2.80, we have seen yesterday that the yesterday ended at 6.00, we have seen yesterday that
natural gas market had traded with a positive node and the menthol oil market had traded with a positive node
settled 0.5% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of and settled 2.1% up. Spread yesterday traded in the
2.8 - 2.9. range of 0.8 to 6.4.

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DAY TIME CURRENCY DATA Forecast Previous
AL

All Day EUR French Bank Holiday 0 0


ONOMICA

All Day EUR German Bank Holiday 0 0


All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday 0 0
DATA

2:30pm EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 56.9 56.8


8:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.1 56.6
8:30pm USD Construction Spending m/m 0.002 0.007
Mon 8:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 71.9 69.5
0 0 0 0 0
ECO

0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

China's gross domestic product (GDP) is predicted to grow by around 9.5% in 2011, 0.5 % points lower compared to
the growth rate expected for this year, said a report issued Wednesday by the Bank of China (BOC). The report by
the BOC, China's third largest lender, was based on the bank's projections of weak overseas demand, tighter
monetary policy, and the government's planned economic restructuring for 2011, the first year of China's 12th five-
year plan. The Chinese government announced in early December that it would switch its monetary policy stance
from relatively loose to prudent next year to tackle rising inflation and keep economic growth at a sustainable pace.
The report also said government policies this year to curb soaring property prices in some major cities, and the
country's efforts to improve energy efficiency had slowed the economy with the GDP dropping to 9.6 % in the third
quarter, down from the second quarter's 10.3 % and 11.9 % in the first quarter. The report also forecast inflation to
rise 4 % in 2011, compared to the 3.3% rise expected for 2010. It said that in the second half of the year, the
SE

producer price index (PPI) for China's industrial products had kept rising along with the consumer price index (CPI),
U CAN US

adding more inflationary pressure for the future.


future

Rising Yuan And Higher Production Number Boost Copper : The strong demand prospects for 2011 boosted copper
prices. Rising yuan and higher production of Copper in China provided further impetus in the markets. The Chinese
currency yuan, also known as the Renminbi (RMB), strengthened to a new record high at 6.6229 per U.S. dollar
EWS YOU

Th
Thursday.
d Chi
China Mi
Ministry
i off IIndustry
d and
d iinformation
f i T h l
Technology showed
h d that
h the
h non-ferrous
f metall production
d i
jumped significantly in Jan-Nov 2010.The non-ferrous metals production for Jan-Nov 2010 was 28.75 million tonnes,
up 21.4%. Among the total non-ferrous metals production, Copper production stood at 4.184 million tonnes during
Jan-Nov 2010, up 10.7%. Meanwhile, benchmark Copper contract on MCX is trading at Rs 435 per kg, up Rs 5.5 per
kg, or 1.2%. Further elevation is expected to take prices towards Rs 437 per kg. COMEX Copper March futures is
trading at $ 4.3690 per pound, up 0.5 cents.
NE

Sterling steady vs dollar, economic concerns weigh : Sterling was steady against a weaker dollar on Thursday, off an
earlier one-week high and underperforming other major currencies as concerns about a fragile UK economic outlook
weighed on the pound. Trade was very thin, exaggerating price action. With only a few year-end flows going through,
sterling was mostly driven by movements elsewhere, hitting a fresh low against the Swiss franc, which was
underpinned broadly by its safe-haven status. Comments from Bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentance
warning against a delay in raising interest rates to contain inflation had little impact on the pound. Sentance is known
to be a hawk and is seen as a lone voice among UK policymakers, while investors' primary concern is about the
government's
negative impact the government s planned austerity measures could have on the UK economy. "Sterling Sterling is just
following everything else. Markets are thin and just one order can turn things around," said Geoffrey Yu, currency
strategist at UBS in London. "Going forward we think sterling will stay rangebound against the dollar and the euro,
but soft against commodity currencies and the Swiss franc," he said, adding that recent UK data had been "not that
bad but not inspiring either".

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di P
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d Th
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diti and
d
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