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BP世界能源统计年鉴

2012年6月
bp.com/statisticalreview

Energy in 2011 – disruptions and continuity


2011年的能源世界:断裂与延续

目录
1 A year of disruptions
荆棘密布的一年

2 Energy and the economy


能源和经济

3 Fuel by fuel
各类燃料的发展情况

4 Concluding remarks
结语

BP集团首席经济学家 克里斯多夫·鲁尔, 2012年6月


© BP 2012
克里斯多夫·鲁尔,伦敦, 2012年6月

  2011年难以忘怀的记忆应该包括人类的希望与悲剧、勇气与

1. A year of disruptions 脆弱。对于范围小得多的能源世界,这份年鉴报告将关注点放在


了政治剧变和自然灾害上,因为它们对全球能源体系造成了巨大
荆棘密布的一年 的、难以预料的破坏。我们的探讨就从量化这些影响开始。

Political unrest and violence caused outages in oil and gas


production in parts of the Arab world. The cessation of Libyan oil
exports alone removed 1.2 Mb/d of crude for the year. Adding in
outages of natural gas and losses in other countries shows a
total decline in excess of 72 mtoe compared to 2010 production
– equivalent to more than 11% of the European Union’s oil
consumption.

  在阿拉伯世界的一些国家,政局动荡和暴力事件导致石油和
天然气停产。去年,仅利比亚石油出口中断就导致原油供应量减
少120万桶/日。加上其它一些国家的天然气停产和石油减产,总
产量比2010年减少7200多万吨油当量,这相当于欧盟石油消费量
的11%以上。

The shut-down of Fukushima and earthquake related damange


to Japanese coal-fired power stations, plus the subsequent
closure of additional reactors in Japan and Europe led to losses
of 43 mtoe for the year – equivalent to almost a third of Asia’s,
or 7% of global nuclear power consumption in 2010.

  日本福岛核电站关闭,部分燃煤发电站在地震中受损,而且
Welcome to the 61st edition of BP’s Statistical Review. As ever, 日本和欧洲随后相继还关闭了一些其他的核电站,这些因素造成
this presentation is our attempt to analyse last year’s data, to 当年4300万吨油当量的供应缺口,而这也几乎相当于2010年亚洲
tease out the underlying story of what happened in international 核电消费量的1/3或者全球核电消费量的7%。
energy markets, in as rigorous a fashion as possible. The main
theme this year relates to the disruptions we saw in 2011, how In addition, 2011 saw for the first time ever an annual average oil
the global energy system coped with them, and what lessons price above $100; the first release of strategic petroleum
we can draw from the adjustment. reserves since 2005; the largest increase in OPEC production
since 2008; an exceptional swing in European weather; and
  欢迎您走进《BP世界能源统计年鉴》第61周年版。与往年一 huge floods in Australia impairing coal production – to name but
样,我们试图通过这份报告以尽可能严谨的方式来分析去年的数 a few. It was anything but a boring year.
据,并梳理国际能源市场跌宕起伏背后的根本性动因。今年年鉴报
告的主题涉及到2011年能源供应所出现的动荡、全球能源体系所   此外,2011年国际能源市场风起云涌,令人瞩目的事件包
采取的应对方式以及我们可以从市场调整中汲取的经验教训。 括:世界石油年均价格首次突破100美元,自2005年以来首次动
用了战略石油储备,石油输出国组织的产量出现了2008年以来的
The enduring memories of 2011 are likely to be of human hope 最大涨幅,欧洲异常的天气波动,以及澳大利亚遭遇影响煤炭生
and tragedy, of courage and of frailty. In the much smaller energy 产的巨大洪灾。2011年绝对不是枯燥乏味的一年。
world this Review is concerned with political upheaval and
natural disasters translate into huge and unpredictable And yet – nothing in the aggregate data indicates anything out of
disruptions of the global energy system. Quantifying these the ordinary. In fact both GDP and energy consumption growth
disruptions is our starting point. last year landed right at their long term average. GDP at 3.7%

BP世界能源统计2012年6月 1
grew slightly faster than primary energy consumption at 2.5%, indexed gas prices outside the US increased, pulled up by the
as is the case in “normal” years, yielding an improvement in rising price of crude; spot prices followed suit.
energy intensity of 1.1% – again, close to trend. And as we will
see in a moment, other major long term trends, such as the shift   在总体趋势风平浪静的表象下,价格变化首先反映出重大调
of the world’s centre of gravity toward the non-OECD 整正在悄然发生。2011年石油价格暴涨,布伦特原油价格年均上
economies, continued unabated as well. 涨40%,达到111美元每桶,创下史上最高的名义油价纪录。如果
比较扣除通胀因素后的年度油价,比本年实际油价更高的年份需
  不过,总体数据却显示出一如寻常的发展轨迹。实际上,去 要追溯到1864年。这份统计年鉴所发布的国际煤炭指标价格的简
年GDP和能源消费增长正好接近于长期平均水平。GDP增速为 单均价上涨了24%,其中欧洲涨幅最大,而美国煤炭价格逼近美
3.7%,略高于2.5%的一次能源消费增长率。如同“正常年份” 国天然气价格。尽管美国页岩气生产的革命性变化继续拉低了美
一样,2011年能源强度降低了1.1%——再次接近长期趋势。下面 国天然气价格,美国之外的与石油指数挂钩的天然气价格在原油
我们会发现,其它主要的长期发展趋势也没有发生改变,比如世 价格上涨的带动下扶摇直上,现货价格也亦步亦趋。
界的重心继续向非经合组织经济体转移。
Supply disruptions are one plausible cause for rising energy
So how did the energy system cope? prices, the other usual suspect is economic growth.

  那么,全球能源体系作出了什么样的应对呢?   供应中断是能源价格上涨的原因之一,另外一个常见的可能
原因是经济增长。

2. Energy and the economy


能源和经济

Price changes give a first indication that major adjustments took


place underneath the smooth aggregate surface. 2011 saw big
price increases: Average annual Brent prices increased by 40%
to reach $111 per barrel, the highest nominal oil price ever; for a
higher annual price in inflation adjusted terms, one has to go all
the way back to 1864. A simple average of the international coal
marker prices we publish in the Statistical Review increased by
24%, with the biggest increase in Europe; and with US coal
prices approaching US gas prices. While US gas prices To be upfront, there is not much in the economic data to
continued their decline following the shale gas revolution, oil indicate abnormal pressure on energy demand or prices. The

2 BP世界能源统计2012年6月
克里斯多夫·鲁尔,伦敦, 2012年6月

global economy grew by 3.7% in purchasing power parity terms     一 次 能 源 的 增 长 速 度 再 次 证 明 ——即 便 过 去 几 年 动 荡 不


last year, or by 2.7% when using market exchange rates – 安——总体形势涛声依旧:经济发展并未对能源需求带来异乎寻
significantly slower than in 2010, but by both measures almost 常的影响。除了核能这个明显的特例外,燃料结构的演变在整体
exactly at the ten year average. As has become customary, 上也与长期趋势大致吻合。只有将经合组织与非经合组织的能源
non-OECD economies outpaced the OECD, contributing almost 增长对比来看,才会发现偏离趋势的有趣变化。
three quarters (73%) of global growth – but both camps landed
exactly at their ten year average by this measure as well.
  
  首先,经济数据并未显示能源需求或价格面临异常压力。按
照购买力平价计算,去年全球经济增长率为3.7%,按市场汇率计
算则为2.7%——这远远低于2010年的增长速度,但是两种计算方
式的结果都几乎正好与十年平均水平持平。令人习以为常的是,
非经合组织经济体的增速超过了经合组织,几乎贡献了全球增速
的四分之三(73%),而从这个量度来看,两个阵营的发展轨迹也
恰好与各自十年平均水平相符。

While the global economy adjusts to lower growth after the crisis,
the shift of its centre of gravity toward the non-OECD continued.
Volatility and disparities exist in both camps – but in 2011, they
were more pronounced in the OECD: the Japanese pathway is
shaped by the tragedy that was the earthquake and tsunami.
Post-crisis growth in the US and Europe started to diverge, with
the US in tentative recovery mode, and Europe dragged down by
unresolved issues in its unified currency area. Both developments
are still with us. The post-crisis adjustment is proving difficult in
the developing world as well, but repercussions there started
later and are an issue for 2012 and beyond.
Non-OECD energy consumption growth of 5.3% stayed firmly
  尽管全球经济在危机之后增速放缓,经济重心仍继续向非经 on trend last year, with China growing at 8.8% – that is, adding
合组织经济体转移。两个经济阵营内都存在经济波动和发展不平 more than total annual UK energy consumption – similar to last
衡的问题,但2011年的这些问题在经合组织表现得更为明显。地 year. OECD energy consumption, in contrast, fell by 0.8%,
震和海啸悲剧影响了日本的经济发展轨迹。金融危机后的美国和 despite average GDP growth. While OECD GDP finally returned
欧洲的经济增长开始走向殊途,美国呈现出试探性复苏,而欧洲 to pre-crisis levels, energy consumption remains 3.3% below its
则受到统一货币区诸多未解难题的拖累而举步维艰。目前这两种 2007 peak; it has declined in three out of the last four years.
不同的发展势态仍在延续。在发展中国家,金融危机后的经济调 Why last year?
整也是困难重重。由于危机的影响在发展中国家显现较晚,因此
问题会在2012年及以后显现出来。   去年,非经合组织能源消费增长5.3%,完全符合长期的趋
势,其中中国增速为8.8%——增量超过英国一年的能源消费
Adding in primary energy growth confirms – for once, given the 量——与前年情况类似。与之对照,经合组织的平均GDP有所增
upheavals of the last few years – the big picture: no 长,而能源消费则下降0.8%。尽管经合组织的GDP终于回到了危机
extraordinary impact from the economy on energy demand. The 爆发前的水平,其能源消费仍比2007年的峰值低3.3%;这是过去
composition of fuels also evolved broadly in line with long term 四年中第三次下滑。去年下滑原因何在呢?
trends, with the obvious exception of nuclear power. An
interesting deviation from trend emerges only if one There are broadly three reasons: First, the impact of high oil
distinguishes OECD from non-OECD energy growth. prices everywhere, and of high coal and gas prices outside the
US. Energy prices in the OECD are least sheltered by subsidies,

BP世界能源统计2012年6月 3
and so the price impact is most direct. The US, for example, the   燃料替换、供需侧反应和贸易模式变化都发挥了各自作用。
world’s second largest energy consumer, used 0.4% less 总体而言可以看到三方面的调整。石油供应量增加,特别是沙特
energy in 2011, despite lower gas prices and a strong recovery 产量提高,再加上全球石油贸易和炼油体系的灵活性提高,使沙
in hydropower. US energy consumption has now fallen in four 特重油在欧洲市场上替代了供应中断的利比亚轻油;欧洲部分天
out of the last six years, driven by a rapid decline in oil 然气转销至亚洲,弥补了日本所关闭的核电站发电量,而且没有影
consumption – the fuel that has had the most rapid price 响到满足这一快速发展地区其它经济体的能源需求;最后,由于
increase. The second reason for the decline was the impact of 美国非常规天然气的成功开发,美洲地区煤炭出口增加,从而有
Fukushima: Energy consumption in Japan, the world’s third 助于替代欧洲天然气的消费。
largest economy, declined by 5%; and switching off nuclear
power had knock-on effects on another large economy, To trace these developments in more detail, we best look at
Germany. Finally, Europe experienced an exceptional swing to them fuel by fuel.
warmer weather compared to 2010, the key reason behind a
3.1% decline in EU energy consumption.   为了更详细地了解这些动态,我们最好逐一分析各类燃料的
情况。
  大体而言有三个原因。第一,价格方面的影响。世界各地油
价居高不下,而美国之外地区的煤炭和天然气价格也不断走高。
经合组织的能源价格得到补贴的支持力度最小,所以价格影响表
现得最为直接。比如,美国是世界上第二大能源消费国,尽管美
3. Fuel by fuel
国天然气价格降低而且水电产能强劲复苏,美国2011年能源消费
量仍降低了0.4%。石油是价格上涨最快的燃料,这导致了美国 各类燃料的发展情况
石油消费骤减,因此美国的能源消费在过去六年已经有四年出现
下降。第二,日本福岛核电站事故的影响。作为世界上第三大经
济体,日本的能源消费下降了5%,而关闭核电站的浪潮也影响 Oil石油
了世界另外一大经济体——德国的能源消费。第三,与2010年比
较,欧洲出现了异常偏暖的天气,这是欧盟能源消费下降3.1%
的关键因素。

The energy dislocations in the OECD give another indication of


how markets coped with the disruptions that characterized 2011.

  经合组织能源消费发展异常,从另一个侧面折射出2011年世
界能源市场如何以自己的方式应对供求突变。

Fuel substitution, supply and demand responses and trading


patterns all played their role. In a nutshell, three major
adjustments took place: an increase in oil supplies, most notably
from Saudi Arabia, together with flexibility in trading and the
global refining system, allowed heavier Saudi crudes to replace
lighter Libyan oil in Europe; a diversion of natural gas from
Europe to Asia allowed the substitution of lost nuclear energy in
Japan without harming the energy needs of other economies in
this fast growing region; and finally, the release of coal from the
Americas, facilitated by the availability of unconventional gas in
the US, helped to replace gas in Europe.

4 BP世界能源统计2012年6月
克里斯多夫·鲁尔,伦敦, 2012年6月

Like energy markets at large, oil markets experienced significant


turbulence in 2011 and so far this year. Oil prices rose substantially
in 2011, with Dated Brent up by 40% to average $111/bbl – a record
in money-of-the-day terms. Prices began the year slightly above
$90 and rose sharply following the loss of Libyan supplies in
February. They peaked just below $127 in mid-April and moderated
thereafter as the economy (and oil demand) weakened, OECD
nations released 35 Mbbls of oil from strategic storage in July and
August, and other OPEC producers began to increase output.
Earlier this year, prices spiked again as the stand-off around Iran’s
nuclear program stoked market fears of a supply disruption. Those
fears have been assuaged more recently by record levels of OPEC The main factor driving prices up last year was the sustained
production and rising inventories. loss of supplies caused by upheavals in the Arab world, primarily
in Libya, and the slow pace of other OPEC members in filling the
  如同整体能源市场情况,石油市场在2011年经历了重大波 void. Libyan output last year fell by 1.2 Mb/d or 71% – the
动,并延续至今。石油价格飙升,即期布伦特原油现货均价上涨 largest decline in a country’s oil production since the aftermath
40%,达到111美元每桶,按付款当日价格计算创下新高。油价 of the Soviet collapse 20 years ago. Several other countries in
年初略高于90美元,但在2月利比亚石油供应中断后急速上 the Middle East and North Africa also experienced supply
涨。4月中旬,油价升至近127美元的峰值,由于经济增速(以及 losses, some of which have continued into this year.
石油需求)减弱、经合组织成员国在7、8月动用了3500万桶战略
储备原油以及部分石油输出国组织成员国开始提高产量,油价此   造成去年油价上涨的主要原因是阿拉伯世界,特别是利比亚
后得到平抑。今年年初,伊朗核问题僵局又加剧了市场对石油供 的局势动荡造成持续的供应中断,而石油输出国组织其他成员
应中断的担忧,石油价格再次上涨。不过,由于石油输出国组织 在弥补缺口方面行动缓慢。利比亚产量去年减少71%,即120
产量达到新高以及库存量增加,这种担忧近期得到缓解。 万桶/日——这是苏联20年前解体以来单一国家所出现的最大规
模减产。中东和北非地区其他几个国家的石油供应也有所减
A second key development was the massive $16 gap that 少,有些国家减产状况延续到今年。
emerged during 2011 for the world’s two main crude
benchmarks, West Texas Intermediate and Dated Brent. The These losses are not visible in the annual data: global oil
differential between these similar-quality crudes is due to production increased last year by 1.1 Mb/d. Moreover, virtually
infrastructure constraints triggered by the rapid growth of US all of that increase was from OPEC countries – a group that
and Canadian supplies. includes Libya. The reason is a massive increase in oil
production among OPEC members in the Arabian Peninsula
  第二个重要进展是,两大基准原油:西德州中质原油(WTI)与 and Iraq, who collectively increased output by 2.5 Mb/d over
布伦特原油的价差在2011年大幅增至16美元。品质接近的两种原 the year, in the event meeting not only the loss of Libyan
油出现如此价差的主要原因是美国和加拿大供应激增造成了运输 supply but also the growth in global oil demand. Saudi Arabia
基础设施的瓶颈。 alone increased output by 1.2 Mb/d, with production reaching a
record 11.2 Mb/d.

  这些供应的减少在年度数据中很难察觉,全球石油产量去年
增加了110万桶/日。此外,几乎所有的增长都来自石油输出国组
织——利比亚也是该组织的成员国。这其中的原因是阿拉伯半岛
上的石油输出国成员国和伊拉克都大幅提高了产量。这些国家去
年共增产250万桶/日,不仅弥补了利比亚减产带来的缺口,而且
满足了全球新增的石油需求。沙特阿拉伯一国的石油产量就增加
了120万桶/日,使其产量达到了创纪录的1120万桶/日。

BP世界能源统计2012年6月 5
Outside OPEC, production was essentially flat, with growth in 气转向石油,并且把页岩气生产技术应用于石油的开采,这使美
the US, Canada, Russia and Colombia offsetting continued 国连续第三年成为非石油输出国组织中石油产量涨幅最高的国
declines in mature provinces such as the North Sea, extended 家。美国2011年的石油产量达到1998年以来的最高水平,今年的
outages in number of countries such as Azerbaijan, and flat 增长势头仍旧非常强劲。同时,加拿大阿尔伯塔省石油供应骤
biofuels output due to weather related disruptions in Brazil. 增,二者导致美国输油管道系统遭遇瓶颈,引发了此前提到的西
德州中质原油与布伦特原油之间巨大的价差。
  在石油输出国组织之外,石油产量基本持平。美国、加拿
大、俄罗斯和哥伦比亚的产量增加弥补了北海等老油区产量的持 There is a bigger lesson behind these developments. Canada
续下滑、阿塞拜疆等国石油生产的持续中断,以及巴西生物燃料 and the US both boast very competitive investment and
产量因天气原因而停滞不前。 property regimes. The competition enabled by open access
triggered short term supply responses to price incentives, as
seen in the shifting rig count from gas toward oil production; but
it also breeds innovation and the long term development of
technologies which make such short term adjustments possible
over time. It is no accident that supply growth and new
technologies have been concentrated in North America.

  我们可以从这些动态中吸取更重要的经验。加拿大和美国都
拥有极具竞争力的投资和产权体系。开放准入的环境促进了竞
争,从而激励供应侧在价格刺激下做出短期反应,钻探重心从天
然气转向石油生产就是有力的证明;这种竞争环境还培育了创新
和技术的长期进步,使上述供应侧短期调整成为可能。供应增加
以及技术革新都集中出现在北美地区,这绝非偶然。

A striking shift in US oil production has become an important


piece of the evolving oil supply story. With high oil prices and
low natural gas prices incentivizing a switch in drilling activity
from natural gas to liquids, and the application to oil of
techniques mastered for shale gas, the US had the largest
increase in non-OPEC oil supply for the third year running.
Output in 2011 was the highest since 1998, and has continued
to grow robustly this year. Combined with rising supply from
Alberta, this significant growth has created bottlenecks in the
US pipeline system, leading to the large disconnect between
WTI and Brent mentioned earlier.

  美国石油生产的显著转变成为石油供应演变的重要环节。油
价高涨和天然气价格走低等因素促使美国的钻探活动重心从天然

6 BP世界能源统计2012年6月
克里斯多夫·鲁尔,伦敦, 2012年6月

Consumption growth, meanwhile, was weak. Global oil   经合组织石油消费延续了长期下滑的趋势,减少了60万


consumption rose by just 0.7% or 600 Kb/d in 2011, a little over 桶/日,降至1995年以来的最低水平。美国(35万桶/日)和德国(8万
half the ten year average (1.1 Mb/d or 1.2%) – despite global 桶/日)的石油消费降幅最大。巧合的是,欧洲的暖冬天气导致取暖
GDP staying at trend. For the 12th year in a row oil’s share in the 用石油需求量减少了12万桶/日,而向日本出口的发电燃料和原油供
primary energy mix declined. 应增加了38%(14万桶/日),以弥补日本核电供应中断带来的缺口。
这两个数字基本吻合。
  与此同时,石油消费增长表现疲软。2011年,尽管全球GDP
整体增长趋势未变,全球石油消费仅增长0.7%,即60万桶/日, Distinguishing by refined product category further illuminates the
略高于十年平均水平的一半(增长1.2%,即110万桶/天)。连续12年 reasons behind weak consumption growth. The weakest portion
以来,石油在全球一次能源消费中的份额不断缩小。 of overall product demand was light distillates, including gasoline,
which fell by 1% or 300 Kb/d globally. Gasoline is price sensitive;
On the surface, oil consumption data mimics the contrast higher prices at the pump drove a decline in consumption. This
between OECD and non-OECD energy demand discussed contrasts with middle distillates, including diesel, which is
earlier. But in oil, the OECD decline can already be called primarily used in commerce, and therefore tends to be aligned
structural. with GDP growth. During the past years of high prices, middle
distillates were the fastest-growing product group.
  从表面上看,石油消费数据折射出此前所讨论的经合组织和
非经合组织之间能源需求的差异。但就石油而言,经合组织石油   按照石油精炼产品类别进行分析则进一步揭示出消费增速疲
消费的减少已经可谓是结构性的变化。 软的原因。在所有石油产品中,需求最弱的是包括汽油在内的轻
馏分油,其全球消费量下降了1%,即30万桶/日。汽油消费对价
Non-OECD consumption grew by 1.2 Mb/d or 2.8%. China once 格较为敏感,加油站价格上涨就会拉低汽油的消费。这与包括柴
again saw the world’s largest increase, at 500 Kb/d, accounting 油在内的中间馏分油形成明显对照。中间馏分油主要用于商业,
for 42% of the net increment, with significant gains also seen in 所以与GDP增长更呈现正比关系。尽管过去数年价格居高不下,
Russia (160 Kb/d), India (140 Kb/d) and Saudi Arabia (110 Kb/d). 中间馏分油仍然是消费增长最快的产品类别。
Consumption declined in North Africa and growth was below
average in the Middle-East – yet another glimpse of the political
upheaval in these regions, but also reflecting subsidy cuts in
Iran, driven by sanctions.

  非经合组织石油消费增长了2.8%,即120万桶/日。其中中国
再次呈现出全球最高的增长,达到50万桶/日,在石油净增长中
所占份额达到42%。消费增长突出的国家还包括俄罗斯(16万
桶/日)、印度(14万桶/日)和沙特阿拉伯(11万桶/日)。北非地区的消
费量降低,中东的消费增速低于历史平均水平——这一方面是源
于这些地区的政治动荡,另外也体现出伊朗在遭受制裁下减少石
油补贴所带来的结果。

OECD consumption continued its long term decline and fell by


600 Kb/d, reaching its lowest level since 1995. The US (-350
Kb/d) and Germany (80 Kb/d) accounted for the largest
contractions. By coincidence, the warm European winter
reduced heating oil demand by about the same amount (120
Kb/d) which was required to deliver a 38% increase in fuel and
crude oil for power generation to Japan (140 Kb/d), as oil helped
to mitigate the nuclear outages.

BP世界能源统计2012年6月 7
The consumption data confirm another important development.
Demand responses to high international prices are still
disproportionally concentrated in OECD economies, where
subsidies of oil products are absent. However, emerging
economies are becoming more price sensitive because
subsidisation in this segment has decreased. Only about 20%
of the world’s oil consumption was in countries with subsidies
last year, down from nearly 40% in 2008, the last year of record
high oil prices. Because subsidies are expensive and because of
the realisation that energy efficiency matters in international
competition, the cycle of rising oil prices resulting in rising
subsidies appears to have been broken: we estimate that
non-OECD countries passed roughly 70% of last year’s oil price
increase on to consumers, up from about 25% in 2008. Of the
countries that continue to subsidize consumption, most are the
oil exporters themselves – in 2011 this group, which accounts
for less than one-quarter of global oil consumption, contributed
two-thirds of global demand growth.

  石油消费数据还印证了另外一个重要趋势。在高企的国际油
价下,需求侧的反应仍然主要集中在经合组织经济体,因为这些 Turning back to the aggregate data, the global developments in
经济体没有提供油品价格补贴。不过,新兴经济体对价格变得越 production and consumption put us in a position to explain the
来越敏感,因为它们的石油补贴正在减少。去年,还在提供补贴 trajectory of prices in 2011, and this year. As 2011 began, oil
的国家在全球石油消费量中只占约20%的份额,而2008年该比例 consumption was outpacing production – reflecting the legacy
为近40%,而2008年是上一次油价高企的年份。鉴于补贴的成本 of aggressive OPEC production cuts to offset the impact of the
高昂,而且很多国家也意识到能源效率决定国际竞争力,所以油 recession on oil demand. That gap widened significantly after
价高时补贴多的恶性循环已经被打破。根据我们的估计,非经合 the loss of Libyan supplies in February 2011. Even with the large
组织国家去年将油价上涨成本的70%转移给了消费者,这远高于 increase in output from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states
2008年25%的水平。继续补贴石油消费的国家大多数是石油出口 described earlier, overall OPEC output did not surpass pre-
国——2011年它们的石油消费量不到全球的四分之一,却占到了 disruption levels – and global production did not exceed
全球需求增长的三分之二。 consumption – until late in 2011. This timing left inventories well
below average despite the SPR release and in this way
Longer term price effects are starting to become more visible supported crude prices throughout the second half of 2011.
as well. Fuel efficiency for new vehicles is improving rapidly in
most markets – in both the OECD and emerging markets. While   再回头看总体数据,观察全球石油生产和消费的动态有助于
this is driven in part by government standards, several years of 解释2011年和今年的价格走势。2011年年初,石油消费量大于
high oil prices have helped change consumer preferences. The 产量——这是石油输出国组织为了应对石油需求疲软的影响而削
vehicle fleet turns over only gradually, and so the improved 减产量所带来的结果。2011年2月份,利比亚石油供应中断,供
efficiency of new vehicles will weigh on consumption for years 需差距进一步被拉大。虽然我们前面也提到沙特阿拉伯以及其它
to come. 海湾地区国家产量大幅提高,但石油输出国组织的整体产量并未
超 过 供 应 中 断 前 的 水 平 ——全 球 的 石 油 产 量 也 没 有 超 过 消 费
  更长期的价格后果开始逐渐显现。不管是经合组织还是新兴 量——这种状况持续到2011年末。即便后来将战略储备投放市
经济体,大多数市场中新售车辆的燃油经济性快速提高。虽然其 场,石油商业库存量仍远低于历史平均水平,这就支持了2011年
中不乏政府标准所产生的效果,连续多年的高油价也改变了消费 下半年原油价格居高不下。
者的偏好。由于车辆的更新换代只能逐步进行,所以更高能效的
新售车辆对石油消费量的影响在未来多年会持续显现。

8 BP世界能源统计2012年6月
克里斯多夫·鲁尔,伦敦, 2012年6月

So far this year, global production has exceeded consumption by where runs were down (by 310 Kb/d) and the non-OECD,
a large margin. Although tensions surrounding the Iran nuclear where runs increased (by 680 Kb/d). The US bucked this trend
stand-off supported another spike in prices early this year, of lower OECD throughputs and increased runs as Midwest
inventories have now moved above the five-year average, setting refiners took advantage of weak domestic crude prices. Middle
the stage for the significant weakening in prices seen in recent distillate exports and a reduced gasoline import requirement
weeks, with Dated Brent falling below $100 for the first time led to the US becoming a net oil product exporter for the first
since February 2011. time in our data (1960).

  今年以来,全球石油产量已经大幅超过了消费量。虽然伊   全球炼油环境依然呈现出大量产能闲置和产量增速缓慢的特
朗核僵局造成的紧张局势曾在年初导致油价再次上涨,但是库 点。2011年,全球净炼油能力增加140万桶/日,其中以中国为主
存量现在已经超过了五年平均水平,为最近数周的油价大幅下 的亚太地区净增加73万桶/日。与此对照,全球原油加工量仅增加
跌奠定了基础,即期布伦特现货价格自2011年2月以来首次跌破 了38万桶/日,略低于全球液体燃料消费增长水平,缺口由天然气
100美元。 液体供应增加补足。数据还表明,经合组织与非经合组织的原油
加工量迥然不同,经合组织原油加工量减少了31万桶/日,而非经
合组织加工量增加了68万桶/日。在经合组织炼油加工量整体下降
Refining炼油 的大趋势下,美国却逆势而发地提高了炼油产量,因为中西部炼
厂利用国内原油价格较低的机会加紧炼油。美国中间馏分油的出
口和国内汽油进口需求减弱,使得美国自我们1960年开始发布统
计数据以来首次成为油品净出口国。

Global unused capacity increased by 1 Mb/d and is now more


than 5 Mb/d higher than it was in 2005. Global refinery
utilisation fell to 81.2%, the second lowest since 1994. There
is too much refining capacity – but not everyone is suffering
to the same extent. Flexible sites with world class operations
can be successful and in 2011, some had the opportunity to
prove it.

  全球闲置产能增加了100万桶/日,比2005年时高出500万
桶/日。全球炼油厂开工率去年降至81.2%,是1994年以来的第二
次低点。炼油能力太大——但并非所有炼厂受到同样影响。一些
拥有国际级运营水准的灵活炼油厂可以大获成功,有些炼厂在
2011年有机会证明了这一点。

The global refining environment continues to be characterized


by massive excess capacity and slow throughput growth. Net
global refining capacity grew by 1.4 Mb/d in 2011, led by
growth of 730 Kb/d in Asia Pacific, mainly in China. In contrast,
global crude runs grew by just 380 Kb/d, slightly below liquids
consumption growth because of new NGL supplies. The data
continues to show differing fortunes between the OECD,

BP世界能源统计2012年6月 9
Natural Gas天然气

The disruption of Libyan supplies meant that Europe lost


around 800 Kb/d of good quality crude oil. Other African
exporters made good about half of these losses by re-
optimising trade. The Former Soviet Union is Europe’s largest
crude oil supplier by far but its oil production grew only
marginally last year. That created an opportunity for Middle
East exporters to regain market share and, led by Saudi Arabia,
they increased medium and heavy sour crude exports to
Europe by more than 250 Kb/d. With flexible sites and excess
capacity in Europe, the lost Libyan barrels were easily
replaced. European refiners made the switch to a heavier
crude slate with only a modest impact on cracking margins.
Natural gas has produced some of the biggest changes in global
  利比亚石油供应中断意味着欧洲每天损失大约80万桶的优 energy markets over the last few years: There is, first, the rapid
质原油供给。该缺口的一半以上被非洲其它出口国通过重新优 increase in trade, especially of LNG, that has connected hitherto
化贸易的方式所弥补。前苏联地区是欧洲最大的原油供应方, segmented regions in an increasingly flexible manner. And
但其石油产量在去年只是略微增长。这给中东的石油出口国带 second, the development of unconventional resources in the US
来重夺市场份额的机会。以沙特阿拉伯为主的中东石油出口国 which has everyone wondering where gas may turn into a
对欧洲的中质和重质高硫原油的出口增加了25万桶/日。欧洲炼 relatively abundant resource next. Both of these developments
油厂设施配置灵活且产能过剩,因此利比亚石油供应缺口被轻 shaped 2011. And as it happens, they also played a key role in
易替代。欧洲炼油厂转用重质原油供给,而且对裂化毛利的影 the response to last year’s disruptions.
响微乎其微。
  过去几年,天然气领域表现出全球能源市场的一些最重大变
Just how modest is revealed by a look at the 2012 margins so 化。首先,贸易增长迅速,特别是液化天然气贸易,这让原本处
far, which have increased because of spring maintenance, 于分割状态的地区以日益灵活的方式联接起来。其次,美国非常
shutdowns in OECD refining, and strong gasoline export 规能源的开发让大家都浮想联翩,接下来天然气会在什么地方成
demand. However, with gasoline demand contracting year-on- 为相对丰富的资源。这两种发展趋势共同塑造了2011年的天然气
year on both sides of the Atlantic, these spikes are likely to be 格局。值得一提是,它们在应对去年能源市场动荡时也发挥了关
transitory. 键作用。

  2012年迄今的毛利率反映出影响之小。由于炼油厂春季维 Let us start with a quick summary of changes on the aggregate


修、经合组织炼厂停工和汽油出口需求强劲,今年毛利率有所增 level.
长。然而,随着大西洋两岸的汽油需求与上年同期相比出现萎
缩,毛利率提高可能只是昙花一现。   让我们快速地总结一下整体层面的变化。

10 BP世界能源统计2012年6月
克里斯多夫·鲁尔,伦敦, 2012年6月

Natural gas production and consumption growth moderated, European spot and contract prices hovered between the US
compared to last year’s exceptional increases. Global and Asian extremes, with UK spot prices averaging $9/Mmbtu
production was up 3.1% (98 Bcm), slightly above trend (2.8%). in 2011, up 37% on the previous year. Milder weather in
Growth originated in the Middle East (11.4%, 54 Bcm), North Europe helped European spot prices to remain well below
America (5.5%, 45 Bcm) and the Former Soviet Union (4.6%, oil-linked contract prices throughout 2011 (AGIP, increasing by
34 Bcm). Consumption rose by 2.2% (70 Bcm), below trend 32% and averaging $10.65/Mmbtu) and into 2012 so far –
(2.7%), and led by Asia Pacific (5.9%, 33 Bcm), North America despite the loss of Libyan supplies and the diversion of LNG
(3.2%, 28 bcm) and the Middle East (6.9%, 26 Bcm). European cargoes to Asia.
consumption, in contrast, suffered an unprecedented 7.8% (42
Bcm) decline.   欧洲液化天然气现货和合同价徘徊在美国和亚洲两个极端
之间。2011年英国液化天然气现货平均价格为9美元/Mmbtu,
  与去年的爆发式增长相比,天然气生产和消费增速趋于缓 比上一年上涨37%。暖冬使欧洲现货价格远远低于与原油价格
和。全球产量增长3.1%(980亿立方米),略高于历史平均水平 挂钩的合同价格(德国与油价挂钩的进口均价在2011年上涨了
(2.8%)。增长源自中东(11.4%,540亿立方米)、北美(5.5%, 32%,达到10.65美元/Mmbtu)。这种状况一直延续到2012年迄
450亿立方米)和前苏联地区(4.6%,340亿立方米)。全球消费增 今为止,并且没有受到失去利比亚的供应和部分液化天然气转
长2.2%(700亿立方米),低于历史平均水平(2.7%),主要由亚太 销给亚洲的影响。
(5.9%,330亿立方米)、北美(3.2%,280亿立方米)和中东
(6.9%,260亿立方米)地区推动。与此对照,欧洲天然气消费空
前下跌了7.8%,即420亿立方米。

There is no global price for natural gas. Regional price changes


therefore provide a first glimpse of the underlying forces of
demand and supply and the patterns of change in any given
period. Annual average spot prices for LNG in Asia rose by
82% to $14/Mmbtu in 2011, driven by a combination of higher
oil prices pushing up oil-indexed contract prices, and strong
additional demand for LNG from Japan, to displace losses in
nuclear power. They have since risen another 16% for 2012
to-date. At the other end of the spectrum, US prices slipped by
8% to an average of $4/Mmbtu in 2011; they have since fallen
a further 42% to average $2.3/Mmbtu in 2012. US Henry Hub
prices have been at a record discount to oil as well as to
international gas prices.

  天然气没有全球统一的价格。因此,地区价格的变动可以
让我们窥见任何特定时期天然气的供求状况和变化模式。由于
高油价推高了与原油价格指数挂钩的天然气合同价格,再加上
日本为了弥补核电停产损失而增加了对液化天然气的需
求,2011年,亚洲液化天然气年度平均现货价格上涨了82%, International trade continued to outpace consumption, rising by
达到14美元/Mmbtu(百万英热单位)。2012年至今,液化天然气 4% (39 Bcm). LNG grew by more than 10%, easily outpacing
平均现货价格又上涨了16%。另一方面,2011年,美国的液化 pipeline trade growth of 1.3%. 32% of all natural gas is now
天然气价格下跌了8%,平均价格跌至4美元/Mmbtu;2012年 traded across international borders; and 32% of all traded gas is
至今价格再跌42%,降至2.3美元/Mmbtu。与石油和国际天然 LNG. This means that more than 10% of all gas consumed
气价格相比,美国亨利交易中心的天然气价格均创下了历史性 reaches its destination as a LNG cargo.
的价差新低。

BP世界能源统计2012年6月 11
  国际燃气贸易量继续超过消费量,其增幅达4%(390亿立方
米)。液化天然气贸易增幅逾10%,远超管道天然气贸易1.3%的增
幅。如今,32%的天然气都进入了国际交易市场;而所有交易的
天然气中32%是液化天然气。这意味着,在所有天然气消费中,
超过10%是通过液化天然气的方式交付给目的地。

Trading patterns in 2011 show a large shift of LNG toward


Asia, driven by the continued need to fuel rapid demand
growth in the region as well as the necessity to replace
nuclear power in Japan. Asian net LNG imports increased by
34% (27.6 Bcm), compared to 3% (2.1 Bcm) in Europe, with
Asia-bound deliveries accounting for 90% of global LNG
growth. By coincidence also last year, Qatar finalised the final
phase of expansion of its LNG export capacity. Qatari LNG
supply grew by 35% (26 Bcm) in 2011 as Qatar overtook
Norway to become the world’s 2nd largest gas exporter.
Japanese demand thus could tap into a combination of
short-term deals for new Qatari supply and spot purchases
from various suppliers, especially Atlantic Basin suppliers
such as Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea.

  2011年的贸易格局显示,液化天然气贸易的重心大幅度转向 It was a combination of two developments. Japan’s need to


亚洲市场,这源于该地区天然气需求的快速增长以及日本替代核 import more natural gas to secure its energy supplies
电的需求。亚洲液化天然气净进口量增长了34% (276亿立方米), dominated the headlines. Indeed, the world’s largest LNG
而欧洲增幅只有3%(21亿立方米)。在全球液化天然气贸易增长 importer increased LNG imports by an additional 12.5% (12
中,运往亚洲地区的液化天然气占据了90%的份额。巧合的是, Bcm). Independently, China for its new five year plan is
去年卡塔尔完成了其液化天然气出口能力的扩张。2011年,卡塔 debating a program to double the share of natural gas in its
尔液化天然气供应量增长了35%(260亿立方米),超过挪威成为全 energy mix from 4% to 8% between 2011 and 2015. China’s
球第二大天然气出口国。如此一来,日本就可以双管齐下,一方 gas market has more than doubled over the past five years,
面可以获得卡塔尔的新短期合同供给,同时,还可以从其他多个 though it still is “only” the fourth largest market in the
供应方,尤其是大西洋盆地地区供货方如尼日利亚和赤道几内亚 world. Since 2006, China’s gas consumption growth was the
手中购买现货。 world’s largest three times, including in 2011, when growth
came to 22% or 23 Bcm – by far the biggest increment ever
The share of LNG deliveries into Asia rose to 63% of the global in China, and supplied by a combination of domestic
total; whereas Europe’s market share fell to 27%. What drove production increases (up 8% or 8 Bcm), pipeline imports
this switch? (from Turkmenistan, 301% or 11 Bcm), and LNG imports (28%
or 4 Bcm). In addition, Asia saw strong LNG demand growth
  亚洲地区液化天然气的交货量增加至全球总量的63%,而欧 from India (5 Bcm – driven by domestic production problems)
洲的份额下跌到27%。造成这种变化的原因是什么? and South Korea (5 Bcm – on strong economic growth and
cold weather). Overall, LNG demand in Asia increased by 15%
(27 Bcm).

  两方面因素的共同作用导致了这种局面。一方面,报纸头条
充斥着日本需要进口更多天然气以确保能源供给的新闻。的确,

12 BP世界能源统计2012年6月
克里斯多夫·鲁尔,伦敦, 2012年6月

日本作为全球最大的液化天然气进口国,进口量再度增加了 洲各主要市场的天然气消费量大幅下滑。只有土耳其是唯一的例
12.5%(120亿立方米)。另一方面,中国为确保新五年计划的实 外(增幅17.3%)。天然气消费比供给降速更快,导致库存显著增
施,正在讨论在2011-2015年间将天然气在能源结构中的比重从 加,现货价格远低于与原油价格指数挂钩的合同价格。
4%倍增至8%。尽管中国还“只”是全球第四大天然气市场,
但是过去五年,中国天然气市场规模扩大了2倍多。2006年以
来,中国天然气消费量增幅曾三次位列全球第一,其中包括2011
年。中国天然气消费在该年的增幅高达22%,或者230亿立方
米。这也是中国迄今为止最大的增幅,其供应来自于国内天然气
增产(增幅8%,即80亿立方米),管道天然气进口(来自于土库曼
斯坦,301%,即110亿立方米)以及液化天然气进口(28%,即40
亿立方米)。此外,亚洲地区的印度和韩国液化天然气需求增长
强劲。印度的增幅达到50亿立方米,主要是由于其国内生产遭
遇问题。在经济强劲增长以及寒冷天气的推动下,韩国的增幅同
样达到50亿立方米。总体而言,亚洲液化天然气需求量增加了
15%(270亿立方米)。

With Asia absorbing most of the growth in LNG supplies, there


was little left for Europe. European markets also had to deal with
the loss of Libyan supplies (7 Bcm) – and large production
declines in the North Sea (23 Bcm, of which 12 Bcm from UK, 5
Bcm from Norway and 6 Bcm from the Netherlands), where the
underlying natural decline of mature fields was exacerbated by
maintenance shut-downs, much of which unplanned.

  亚洲吸纳了大部分的液化天然气新增供应量,留给欧洲的就
显得极其有限。欧洲还需要去应对利比亚天然气供应中断(70亿立 While Asian markets were looking for supplies to meet
方米),以及北海气田产量大幅下滑(230亿立方米,其中英国120 surging demand, and Europe coped with declining production,
亿立方米、挪威50亿立方米、荷兰60亿立方米)所造成的影响。北 the North American gas market faced a very different
海老气田的生产能力在自然衰减,而计划外设备维护导致的停产 challenge. The continued momentum in the growth of
更让局面雪上加霜。 unconventional gas supplies saw US gas production increase
by a record 47 Bcm, accounting for 48% of the growth of
The situation in Europe was mitigated by increased pipeline world gas production in 2011, and taking US gas production to
imports from Russia (9%, 11 Bcm), by falling demand, and by a new all-time high, above the previous peak in 1973. 30% of
additional coal supplies. Gas consumption was sharply lower this total was shale gas.
across all the major European markets – with the sole exception
of Turkey (up 17.3%) – due to the combination of weak economic   在亚洲市场寻找天然气供应以满足快速增长的需求,欧洲苦
growth, an exceptionally mild winter compared to 2010, and 于应付产能下滑问题的时候,北美天然气市场却面临着完全不同
substitution by coal in power generation. Consumption fell faster 的挑战。由于非常规天然气的开采量持续上升,2011年,美国天
than supply, leading to a significant inventory build and keeping 然气生产量创纪录地增加了470亿立方米,相当于2011年全球增
spot prices well below oil-indexed contract prices. 量的48%。美国天然气生产因此达到了历史新高,超过了1973年
出现的上一个峰值。美国天然气生产量的30%是页岩气。
  由于来自俄罗斯的管道天然气进口量增加(9%,即110亿立方
米),再加上市场需求下滑和煤炭供应量提升,欧洲天然气市场的 Demand could not keep up (2.4%, 17 Bcm), despite a reduction
窘境得以缓解。由于经济疲软,与2010年相比异常温暖的冬季以 of net imports and gas prices low enough versus coal to
及煤炭在电力行业成为天然气替代燃料这三方面因素的影响,欧 encourage substantial substitution in power generation. The

BP世界能源统计2012年6月 13
incremental supply which was left was ultimately absorbed by a
large build-up in inventories.

  虽然天然气净进口量减少,天然气相对煤炭的价差也足以刺
激电力行业大量用天然气代替煤炭发电,美国的天然气需求增长
(2.4%,即170亿立方米)仍然无法跟上产量增长的步伐。剩余的新
增供应最终转化成为大量库存。

The growth of LNG trade and the production of unconventional


gas continue to transform the world of natural gas. In 2011, they
combined to give gas markets the flexibility to accommodate
additional Japanese LNG demand, without disruption in other Coal production increased by 6.1% (229 mtoe) globally, easily
parts of the system. exceeding the ten year average (4.9%). Growth last year, as in
many previous years, came from China (8.8%, 158 mtoe) which
  液化天然气贸易量的增长以及非常规天然气的生产持续地改 provided the largest volumetric increment, raising its share in
变着天然气行业。2011年,二者所共同带来的灵活性帮助天然气 global production to 50%. It did not come from India, where a
市场在不影响供需体系其他环节的前提下满足了日本的新增液化 prolonged monsoon caused production growth of 2.3% (5 mtoe)
天然气需求。 to lag consumption growth by an even wider margin than usual.
EU production also grew by 2.6% (4.2 mtoe), the first increase
To see how, we need to look at coal. since 1995.

  要了解这一过程,我们需要来观察煤炭的情况。   全球煤炭产量增加了6.1%(2.29亿吨油当量),轻松超过过去
十年平均值(4.9%)。和之前很多年一样,去年煤炭产量的增长主
要来自中国(8.8%,1.58亿吨油当量)。中国贡献了全球煤炭产量
Coal煤炭 的最大增幅,其煤炭产量在全球产量中的份额提升到50%。印度
的煤炭产量并未出现大幅增长,旷日持久的季风雨季导致印度产
Coal was the fastest growing fossil fuel last year, in production 量增幅仅为2.3%(500万吨油当量),与消费增速的差距进一步拉
as well as consumption. The coal story is a story of production 大。欧盟产量也增长了2.6%,这是1995年以来的首次增长。
and trade patterns able to adjust to market conditions. In this
way, coal was buttressing global supply security. Only a small share of coal is traded, but this share is growing – in
size and reach. In 2011, and outside China, coal exporters,
  不论是在产量还是消费量方面,煤炭都是去年增长最迅速的 benefiting from growing import needs in Asia and Europe, have
化石能源。煤炭行业的发展在于建立了能够适应市场条件的生产 been the largest contributors to production growth with Indonesia
和贸易模式。通过这种发展方式,煤炭起到了支撑全球能源供应 recording the largest production increment (18.1%, 30.6 mtoe) by
安全的作用。 far. The world’s biggest exporter, Australia, was an exception; it
recorded a production decline (2.2%, 5.3 mtoe) because of floods.

  尽管只有很小部分煤炭进入了贸易市场,但是不论从规模还是
覆盖范围来看,这一比重正在提升。2011年,中国以外其它煤炭出
口国受益于亚洲和欧洲不断增长的进口需求,成为了煤炭产量增长
最大的贡献者,其中,印度尼西亚增幅最大(18.1%,即 3060 万吨
油当量)。全球煤炭最大出口国澳大利亚却成为例外;因为洪灾的
影响,其煤炭产量出现下滑(2.2%,即530 百万吨油当量)。

Strong global demand was driven by the non-OECD, in particular


by China at 9.7% (163 mtoe) and India at 9.2% (25 mtoe) who

14 BP世界能源统计2012年6月
克里斯多夫·鲁尔,伦敦, 2012年6月

together accounted for 98% of net consumption growth. Over


the last decade, the OECD share in global coal consumption has
declined from 47% to 29%. Last year, OECD consumption
declined by 1.1% (12 mtoe), five times the average rate (-0.2%).
Yet this was not your typical coal-equals-emerging-markets year.

  非经合组织国家,尤其是中国(9.7%, 1.63亿吨油当量)和印
度(9.2%, 2500万吨油当量),是全球煤炭强劲需求的推动者。中
印两国在全球煤炭消费净增量中占据了98%的份额。过去十
年,经合组织成员国在全球煤炭消费中的比重从47%降到了
29%。去年,经合组织煤炭消费量下降了1.1%(1200万吨油当 Steam coal prices in Asia remained at a premium, with Chinese
量),降幅是历史平均水平(-0.2%)的5倍。但是去年并非是人们 import demand driving up prices throughout the region – including
经常说的“煤炭与新兴市场划等号”的一年。 in Japan, the world’s second largest coal importer, and despite
falling demand there. European import prices rose more rapidly
The OECD decline in 2011 was particularly pronounced in the US (31.4% y-o-y, compared to 26.1% in China), albeit from a lower
(-4.6%, 24 mtoe) where shale gas eroded coal’s role in power level – and just enough to attract additional imports from across
generation; and in Japan (-4.8%, 6 mtoe), where coal-fired the Atlantic. A clear pattern emerges: Asian suppliers and Russia
electricity production had to be reduced after the earthquake. provided the bulk of additional coal for Asia; American suppliers
These declines were partially offset by growth in the EU (3.6%, and Russia did the same for Europe – in the course of events also
9.8 mtoe), where coal was winning against gas in power replacing European Union imports from Indian Ocean suppliers
generation because of lower prices, and also because of that had been redirected to Asia.
regulatory incentives: carbon prices remained extremely weak
under the present system and explicit quotas protected coal   亚洲动力煤价格仍然高于其他地区,中国的进口需求推高了
from competition in Spain (where almost half of the EU’s 该地区的价格——包括世界第二大煤炭进口国日本,尽管该国需
consumption growth had its origin with 5.1 mtoe). 求有所下降。欧洲煤炭进口价格增长更快(同比增幅31.4%,而中
国的同比增幅是26.1%),但是基于较低的价格起点,而这足以吸
  2011年,在经合组织煤炭消费量下滑的背景下,美国尤其明 引来自大西洋彼岸更多的进口。我们可以看到清晰的供需格局:
显(-4.6%, 即2400万吨油当量)。美国页岩气削弱了煤炭在发电行 亚洲供应商和俄罗斯供应了亚洲地区绝大多数的煤炭消费增量;
业的地位。日本(-4.8%, 即600万吨油当量)燃煤发电量减少是受到 而美洲供应商和俄罗斯则满足了欧洲的大多数新增需求——与此
了地震的影响。这些国家煤炭消费的下滑在一定程度上被欧盟消 同时,他们还取代了印度洋地区供应商对欧盟的煤炭出口,因为
费的增长 (3.6%, 即980万吨油当量) 所抵消。欧盟地区的煤炭凭借 印度洋供货商的煤炭供应转往了亚洲市场。
较低的价格成为比天然气更具优势的发电燃料,而且还得益于政
府监管政策的鼓励:在目前的体系下,碳价仍然极其低迷,而西 With Australia’s and South Africa’s coal exports falling in 2011,
班牙明确的煤炭限额保护措施使煤电免受竞争威胁。西班牙(510 there was plenty of room for other suppliers to fill the gap.
万吨油当量)几乎贡献了欧盟煤炭消费增幅的一半。 Indonesia benefitted most, growing exports to Asia by 18%
(25.1 mtoe). Russia came second (25.7%, 3.8 mtoe).
Meanwhile, Colombia (35.3%, 7.9 mtoe), the US (38.3%, 6.4
mtoe) and Russia again (15%, 4.5 mtoe) satisfied Europe’s
higher net import requirements.

  2011年,澳大利亚和南非煤炭出口出现下滑,这为其它供应
国提供了填补缺口的机会。印度尼西亚成为最大的受益者,其向
亚洲的出口增长了18%(2510万吨油当量)。俄罗斯位列次席
(25.7%, 即380万吨油当量)。同时,哥伦比亚(35.3%, 即790万吨
油当量),美国(38.3%, 即640万吨油当量)以及俄罗斯(15%, 即450
万吨油当量)满足了欧洲更高的净进口需求。

BP世界能源统计2012年6月 15
In this way, markets balanced. European markets compensated
for the natural gas cargoes (LNG) bypassing the old continent for
Asia in part by picking up abundant US and Colombian coal
supplies. Higher Asian prices directed previous exports from
Indian Ocean suppliers back into Asia, while attracting new
supplies from Russia and Indonesia. And coal from the US was
available at a price advantage because at home, it had been
backed out by natural gas.

  如此一来,能源市场供求得到了平衡。虽然有些天然气供应
(液化天然气)绕过传统的欧洲大陆市场而销往亚洲,欧洲市场却
通过吸纳美国和哥伦比亚充足的煤炭供应在一定程度上弥补了天 Nuclear was of course at the heart of one of the major
然气供应的减少。亚洲较高的价格将印度洋供应商重新拉回亚洲 disruptions in 2011. Global nuclear generation fell by 4.3% (119
市场,同时还吸引了来自俄罗斯和印度尼西亚的新供应。而受到 TWh), the largest decline on record, bringing it back roughly to
国内天然气价格冲击的美国煤炭供应可以用优惠价格出售。 the level of 2001. Nuclear’s share of global energy (4.9%) was
at the lowest level since 1986. But beyond the closure of
This, then, allows us to complete the puzzle of how markets Japanese and German nuclear plants, the global impact of the
coped with the large scale disruptions dominating the headlines Fukushima incident has actually been relatively mild. Nuclear
in 2011. Production increases, demand changes and even the output grew in 22 countries in 2011 and one country – Iran
weather all helped. In essence, however, this is a story of fuel joined the ranks of nuclear power producers in the Statistical
substitution and shifts in trade flows, triggered by price Review.
adjustments.
  2011年,核电无疑是2011能源大动荡之一。全球核能发电量
  2011年,大规模的市场供应中断不断成为媒体的标题新闻。以 下降了4.3%(1190亿千瓦时),几乎降到了2001年的水平,这是有
上分析有助于我们彻底了解市场应对大规模市场供应中断的方式。 史以来最大降幅。核能在全球能源结构中的比重(4.9%)达到了
产量增加,需求变动甚至天气状况都产生了影响。不过,本质上这 1986年以来的最低点。除了日本和德国核电厂关闭之外,日本福
是价格调整所引起的能源替代和贸易流向转变所带来的结果。 岛核电事故在全球所产生的影响其实较小。2011年,全球有22个
国家的核能发电量有所增长——伊朗更是首次跻身于《能源统计
Before leaving this subject, let’s have a short look at what 年鉴》中核电生产国家行列。
happened to non-fossil fuels.
Renewable power generation grew 18%, the ninth successive
  在结束这个话题前,我们先快速看一下非化石能源的情况。 year of double-digit growth. This was the largest ever volume
increment (29.3 mtoe), contributing 10% of the overall increase
in world energy consumption – a larger contribution than oil.
Non-fossil fuels非化石能源 The US (16.4%), China (48.4%) and Germany (22.9%),
together accounted for more than half (56%) of renewable
power growth in 2011. Overall, renewable energy, including
biofuels, accounted for 2% of primary energy consumption in
2011, of which 1.6% was from fuels for power generation. The
share of biofuels in total renewable energy declined because
production was hampered by a weather related decline in
Brazil offsetting production increases elsewhere.

  可再生能源发电量增长了18%,这是其连续第九年实现两
位数增长,同时也是有史以来最高的数量增长(2930万吨油当
量)。它在全球能源消费总体增长中占据了10%的份额,超过石

16 BP世界能源统计2012年6月
克里斯多夫·鲁尔,伦敦, 2012年6月

油的贡献比例。美国(16.4%),中国(48.4%)和德国(22.9%)加起
来贡献了2011年全球一半以上(56%)的可再生能源发电量增长。
总体来看,包括生物燃料在内的可再生能源,在2011年一次能
源消费中占据了2%的份额,其中1.6%来自可再生发电。生物
燃料在可再生能源总量中的比重下降,因为巴西的生物能源生
产受到天气影响而下滑,从而抵消了世界其它地区生物燃料产
量的增长。

Renewable energy did not play a role in responding to the


disruptions we discussed – partially because wind, solar and
geothermal energy inputs are non-tradable, and partially because There is widespread consensus that high oil prices are
capacity expansion is still a function of policy support. For 2011, detrimental to economic growth, but no unanimity about how
the path of renewable growth was largely pre-determined by “high” prices need to be to create damage, nor about the
existing policy settings. magnitude of such damage. The various channels for such an
effect are well known: On a global level, the main transmission
  可再生能源在我们刚讨论过的应对全球能源市场供应中断过 mechanism is the transfer of income from oil importers to oil
程中并未发挥作用——部分原因是风能、太阳能和地热能源无法 exporters. For oil importers, higher prices will leave them more
交易,另一部分原因是这些领域的产能扩建还依赖政策支持。 exposed the higher the share of imported oil in their economy.
2011年可再生能源的发展轨迹很大程度上是由现有政策框架预先 But it is more complicated than this: The overall effect depends
决定的。 on how oil exporters use the additional income generated by
higher prices. “Petrodollars” can be recycled in two ways – oil
producers can save the additional income or spend it. To the
The impact of high oil prices on the economy extent they spend it to purchase goods and services from oil
油价高涨对全球经济的影响 importing countries, income is shifted straight back, offsetting
the initially higher import bill in oil consuming countries. To the
I have described 2011 earlier as a year when the economy did extent they decide to save it by purchasing foreign assets, these
not drive prices up. But up they went anyway, and this gave rise revenues increase the global supply of savings, thereby reducing
to a different discussion – the impact of high energy prices, and interest rates and lowering borrowing costs everywhere.
in particular of oil prices, on the global economy.
  高油价不利于经济增长,我们已就这一观点达成广泛共识。
  我先前提到,在2011年,经济并未推动能源价格上涨。但能 但价格涨至多高才会对经济造成损害?而这一损害又会达到何种
源价格依旧走高,这就引出了另外一个话题——高企的能源价 程度?这些都尚无定论。众所周知,高油价可能通过多种渠道影
格,尤其是油价,对全球经济所产生的影响。 响经济:从全球角度看,这种影响的主要传导机制是收入由石油
进口国向石油出口国转移。对石油进口国而言,进口石油的比重
越高,高油价对经济的冲击越大。但现实情况更加复杂:高油价
所产生的整体影响取决于石油出口国如何利用更高价格所带来的
新增收入。“石油美元”可通过两种方式进行循环——石油输出
国可选择将额外收益存起来或消费掉。如果他们用这笔钱从石油
进口国购入商品和服务,这部分新增收入则直接反向转移,抵消
了高油价最初给进口国所带来更高的进口支出。如果他们决定通
过购买外国资产进行存储,则会加速全球储蓄供应,从而导致各
国利率及借贷成本降低。

However, if interest rates are already set close to zero by


monetary policy, as is presently the case in major oil importing
economies, this second channel loses all importance and the

BP世界能源统计2012年6月 17
ability to export goods and services back into oil producing
countries becomes even more important.

  但是,如果利率已经在货币政策作用下接近零点,这也是主
要石油进口国的现状,第二种渠道就失去了一切意义。增加面向
产油国的商品和服务出口对石油进口国而言就变得更加重要。

This ability differs greatly across countries. In 2011, a year of record


high oil prices, for example, European exports to oil producing
nations have been much higher than those from the US, giving
Europe a competitive advantage in absorbing its rising oil bill. Outside
the OECD India is more vulnerable than China by this criterion.
For most of this presentation, I have focused on events in
2011. A big advantage of collecting all this data is the ability to
  各个国家的出口能力大相径庭。例如,在2011年油价屡创新
take a longer term perspective. Allow me, then, to close with
高的背景下,欧洲对产油国的出口远超过美国,这使欧洲在应对
a few observations in that spirit, linked to the topics we have
石油进口成本飙升方面更具比较优势。在非经合组织国家中,按
covered.
照上述标准,印度比中国更容易受到高油价影响。

Compared to previous periods of high oil prices, this ranking of   今天我的发言用很大篇幅集中回顾了2011年所经历的重要能

major economies has not changed. However, the 2011 data reflect 源事件。整理这些数据的一大好处是有助于梳理长远的视角。本

a remarkable improvement in the US vs. other economies. 着这种精神,在今天演讲的结尾,请允许我就我们讨论过的内容

Tellingly, this improvement is not driven by the US having 分享几点看法。

increased exports to oil producers but rather by a reduction in US


oil imports – further evidence of the intricate ways in which the I mentioned earlier that fuel substitution was an important

technological improvements fostered by open competition in ingredient in the way markets dealt with the turmoil of 2011.

North America are changing the geopolitics of energy. The long term equivalent of substitution, also determining its
short term scope, is the development of fuel shares over time.
  与以往高油价时代相比,各大经济体增加出口能力的排名并 Change may come slowly to the energy system, but it does
无变化。但是,2011年的数据显示,美国与其他经济体相比取得 arrive. Oil’s share has been in structural decline for 40 years
了一个令人瞩目的进展。值得关注的是,该成绩背后并非是美国 now, and its current share (31%) is the lowest in our data set.
加大了对产油国的出口,而是在于减少了石油进口——这也进一 The line shows how a fuel can become more“specialized”
步印证了北美通过开放式竞争而取得的技术进步正以复杂的方式 – as in oil concentrating in transport – if it is expensive. Coal
改变着世界能源地缘政治格局。 has gained market share rapidly in recent years, fuelling the
shift in the centre of gravity we discussed from the OECD to
the industrializing world, and in the process fuelling income

4. Concluding remarks generation literally for billions of people.

结语   正如先前谈到的,燃料替代是能源市场应对2011年多事之秋
的一种重要手段。能源结构的逐步演变不仅是燃料替代的长期发
展结果,同时还会影响到燃料替代的短期规模和范围。全球能源
体系的变化可能非常缓慢,但这种变化已经拉开序幕。在过去的
40年间,石油在能源消费结构中的比重呈持续结构性下滑之势,
目前的份额(31%)是我们发布统计数据以来的历史最低值。图表
显示,某一燃料若价格高昂,其用途会更加“专门化”,就如石
油消费目前集中在交通运输领域。近年来,煤炭份额快速提高,
促进了经济发展重心由经合组织向工业化进程中的国家转移,同
时也在这一过程中为数十亿人带来了收益。

18 BP世界能源统计2012年6月
克里斯多夫·鲁尔,伦敦, 2012年6月

This has profound implications, for example for carbon   我在结语中想说的第二个问题是能源体系如何能在短期内根


emissions – something we have not yet discussed – as 据需求来提高产量,就像2011年一样。长期来看,这种能力实质
industrialisation is, and always has been, dependent on cheap 上涉及资源量的问题。
energy. As a result, carbon emissions from the use of energy
over the last ten years have risen (2.9% p.a.) faster than primary Our data continue to show that proved reserves rise over time,
energy consumption (2.7%). Last year, they climbed by 3%, despite the steady increase in energy consumption. Today’s proved
faster as well. reserves of oil are sufficient to meet current production for 54
years; for natural gas that figure is 64 years; and for coal it is more
  这种局面产生了深远的影响。比如,我们今天还未涉及的碳 than 100 years. Indeed, since we began tracking proved reserves of
排放问题。工业化以前和现在都依赖廉价能源的供给,因此,在 oil & natural gas in 1980, global reserves have increased every year
过去的十年间,能源使用所导致的碳排放增长速度(年均2.9%)超过 for natural gas, and every year but one for oil (1998, when oil prices
了一次能源消费增速(2.7%)。去年的增速更快,达到3%。 collapsed). As we have long argued, the world faces challenges in
growing supply rapidly enough to sustain growth in energy demand
They fell, however, in one large energy consumer not known for and the economy, but at a global level the availability of hydrocarbon
its carbon policies, the United States. The reason of course is resources is not one of them.
the substitution of coal by natural gas – an example linking back
to our discussion of what drives the development of new energy   我们的数据继续表明,尽管能源消费稳步增长,但随着时间
technologies. 的推移,已探明能源储量也在增加。目前,全球已探明石油储量
可供开采54年;天然气储量可供开采64年;而煤炭储量可供开采
  但是,在美国这个碳排放政策并不严厉的能源消费大国,这 100多年。事实上,自我们从1980年开始跟踪已探明油气储量以
一数字却有所下降。个中原因在于美国天然气对煤炭的替代作 来,全球天然气储量的数据每年都在增加,石油储量除1998年以
用——这个例子验证了我们此前对于什么推动着新的能源技术发 外均保持增长(1998年石油价格大跌)。正如我们一直强调的那
展的讨论。 样,在迅速加大供应量以满足能源需求和经济的快速增长方面,
全球面临着诸多重大的挑战。但是,从全球层面来看,油气资源
Today’s energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels, with renewable 的可获得性并不存在问题。
energy accounting for only 2% of global consumption. Even at
current growth rates, and current financial support, it is easy to
calculate just how long it will take for renewables to make a real
difference – without technological break-through. The question
this data point brings to my mind is whether there are useful
lessons to be learned about the role of competition in the
emergence of new technologies which we have documented in
the data on fossil fuels.

  今天,全球能源结构仍以化石燃料为主导,可再生能源仅占
全球能源消费量的2%。即使延续目前的发展速度和财政支持,
如果没有实现技术突破,我们可以很容易地推算出,可再生能源
要真正产生影响将是旷日持久的过程。这一数据令我想到的一个
问题是,在关于化石燃料的数据分析中,我们提到了竞争在推动
新技术发展中的作用。这能否可以给可再生能源的发展带来有益
的启示?

A second issue I would like to mention in conclusion relates to


the short term capacity of the system to increase output if
required – as it did in 2011. The long term equivalent of this
ability is the availability of resources.
BP世界能源统计2012年6月 19
Where does this leave us? I do think there are a few takeaways
to be had from this year of disruptions, with seemingly normal
growth and in line with long-term structural changes. These
evolve around the flexibility of markets – the ability to increase
production, to substitute across fuels, and to change trading
patterns has been crucial to the ease with which the system has
adapted. For this to work, prices must be allowed their role as
signals to guide the reallocation of energy flows. Our messages
change only slowly as well – and one of them is to praise the
role of markets in guaranteeing energy security.

  这告诉了我们什么?我相信,回首能源供应中断频频发生的
2011年,在看似平稳发展,长期结构性变化司空见惯的表象下,
我们确实需要去领悟一些要点。这些都围绕着市场灵活性主
题——提高产量、进行燃料替代、优化贸易结构的能力对于能源
体系轻松调整,适应变化至关重要。如要建立这种能力,能源价
格应该被视为引导能源资源再分配的重要信号。我们想传递的信
息没有太大的改变——其中一点就是要肯定市场在确保能源安全
方面所作出的积极贡献。

There is a second, related, conclusion here. It has become


fashionable to advocate energy independence as a path to
security. I believe an objective look at the data shows that it is
precisely the inter-dependence of the world’s energy system
that is its real strength. Just imagine if Japan would have been
truly self-sufficient, and not integrated into the global energy
system at all – the adjustments we have seen would have been
impossible.

  除此以外,还能得出第二个相关的结论。倡导通过能源独立
性以确保能源安全现已成为一种时尚。我却认为,客观的数据分
析表明,全球能源体系的相互依存性才恰恰是真正的力量源泉。
试想一下,如果日本的能源行业依靠自给自足,完全脱离全球能
源体系——那么能源市场绝对无法在2011年日本核危机后作出了
成功的应对和调整。

20 BP世界能源统计2012年6月