TAREA 2 – SOLUCIÓN DE DECISIONES CON RIESGO

TRABAJO COLABORATIVO

ENTREGADO POR:
MARTIN EMILIO ROBLES HERNANDEZ
COD:1003169203
NICOLAS GARCIA BONILLA
COD: 1110541004
JUAN JOSE PÉREZ CASTILLO
COD:1077875619

COD: 200608 GRUPO: _15

PRESENTADO A:
NURY YASMIN MORENO

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA

VICERRECTORÍA ACADÉMICA Y DE INVESTIGACIÓN
ESCUELA DE CIENCIAS BÁSICAS, INGENIERÍAS Y TECNOLOGÍAS
TEORIA DE DESICIONES
COLOMBIA
4/9/2020
 RELACION DEL PUNTO DE DISTRIBUCION

ESTADOS DE LA NATURAL
DEMANDA ALTA
ALTERNATIVAS DE DECISION UTILIDADES ($)

ON LINE 435506
GRANDES SUPERFICIES 416332
TIENDAS 498856
PUNTO DE VENTA 413209

PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA 0.55

EXCELENTE 0.22
REGULAR 0.51
MALO 0.27

NIVEL DE ACEPTACION INDICADORES DEL MERCA

Nota: Para generar y actualizar los datos oprima f9, fn+f9 o ctrl+alt
UNTO DE DISTRIBUCION

ESTADOS DE LA NATURALEZA
DEMANDA MEDIA DEMANDA BAJA
UTILIDADES ($) UTILIDADES ($)

379455 296217
337721 211109
354836 200330
338730 211349

0.18 0.27

0.00 0.21
0.78 0.18
0.22 0.61

INDICADORES DEL MERCADO

los datos oprima f9, fn+f9 o ctrl+alt+f9

1. CRITERIO DEL VALOR ESPERADO CON UTILIDADES
RELACION DEL PUNTO DE DISTRIBUCION CON UTILIDADES

ESTADOS DE LA NATURALEZA (i)

ALTERNATIVAS DEMANDA ALTA DEMANDA MEDIA DEMANDA BAJA UTILIDADES

DE DECISION (j) UTILIDADES ($) UTILIDADES ($) ($)

ON LINE U11 = 435506 U21 = 379455 U31 = 296217

GRANDES U12 = U22 = U33 =
SUPERFICIES 416332 337721 211109
TIENDAS U13= 498856 U23 = 354836 U33 = 200330
PUNTO DE U14= U24 = U34 =
VENTA 413209 338730 211349

PROBABILIDAD P1 = P2 = P3 =
DE OCURRENCIA 0.55 0.18 0.27
 ESTADOS DE LA NATURALEZA

DEMANDA ALTA DEMANDA MEDIA DEMANDA BAJA

(i =1) (i = 2) (i = 3)

MAXIMA
UTILIDAD DE LAS
ALTERNATIVAS Max U1j = Max U2j = Max U3j =
DE DECISION 498856 379455 296217

(j = 1, 2, 3, 4)

PROBABILIDAD P1 = P2 = P3 =
DE OCURRENCIA 0.55 0.18 0.27

Entonces,

UECIP=Max U_1j*P_1+ Max U_2j*P_2+Max U_3j*P_3

UECIP= 422651.3

Determinar, UESIP_j para cada alternativa de decisión (j):

UESIP On Line
〖𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟏=𝑷_𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟏+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟏
〖𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟏= 387808.79
 UESIP Grandes superficies
〖𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟐=𝑷_𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟐+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟐
〖𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟐= 346771.81

UESIP Tiendas
〖𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟑=𝑷_𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟑+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟑
〖𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟑= 392330.38

UESIP Puntos de venta

〖𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟒=𝑷_𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟒+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟒 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟒
〖𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟒= 345300.58

Por último, seleccionar el valor máximo Max UESIP_j dentro de los determinados anteriormente:

𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷=𝑴𝒂𝒙 〖𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝒋
𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷= 392330.38

Determinar:
𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑷=𝑼𝑬𝑪𝑰𝑷−𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷
𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑷= 30320.91

3. CRITERIO BAYESIANO DE DECISION CON UTILIDADES

ESTADOS DE LA NATURALEZA (i)

DEMANDA ALTA DEMANDA MEDIA DEMANDA BAJA

PROBABILIDAD P1 = P2 = P3 =
DE OCURRENCIA 0.55 0.18 0.27

EXCELENTE P11 = 0.22 P21 = 0.00 P31 = 0.21

REGULAR P12 = 0.51 P22 = 0.78 P32 = 0.18
MALO P13 = 0.27 P23 = 0.22 P33 = 0.61
NIVEL DE INDICADORES DE MERCADO
ACEPTACION
 a. Probabilidades conjuntas:

• Probabilidades conjuntas nivel de aceptación Excelente 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏 ":"

〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏=𝑷_𝟏∗𝑷_𝟏𝟏+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑷〗 _(𝟐𝟏 ) 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑∗𝑷_𝟑𝟏
〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏= 0.1777

• Probabilidades conjuntas nivel de aceptación Regular 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐 ":"

〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐=𝑷_𝟏∗𝑷_𝟏𝟐+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑷〗 _(𝟐𝟐 ) 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑∗𝑷_𝟑𝟐
〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐= 0.4695

• Probabilidades conjuntas nivel de aceptación Malo 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑 ":"

〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑=𝑷_𝟏∗𝑷_𝟏𝟑+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑷〗 _(𝟐𝟑 ) 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑∗𝑷_𝟑𝟑
〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑= 0.3528

b. Probabilidades posteriores del nivel de aceptación 𝑷𝑷": "

Probabilidades posteriores nivel de aceptación Excelente:

〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏=𝑷_𝟏𝟏/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏=1.23804164
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏=𝑷_𝟐𝟏/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏= 0
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟏=𝑷_𝟑𝟏/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟏=1.18176702

Probabilidades posteriores nivel de aceptación Regular:

〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟐=𝑷_𝟏𝟐/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟐=1.08626198
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐=𝑷_𝟐𝟐/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐=1.66134185
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟐=𝑷_𝟑𝟐/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟐=0.38338658

Probabilidades posteriores nivel de aceptación Malo:

〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟑=𝑷_𝟏𝟑/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟑=0.76530612
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑=𝑷_𝟐𝟑/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑=0.62358277
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟑=𝑷_𝟑𝟑/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟑=1.72902494
 Entonces,

·         Valor esperado nivel de aceptación Excelente:

〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟏= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟏+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟏
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟏= 889234.046
〖𝑽𝑬
〖 𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟏= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟐+
〗 _𝟏𝟐= _𝟏𝟏+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟐
_𝟐𝟏 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟏
_𝟑𝟐
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟐=
_𝟏𝟏= 764918.008
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟑= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟑+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟑
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟑= 854347.89
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟒= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟒+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟒 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟒
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟒= 761335.228
𝑴𝒂𝒙 〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏=889234.046

·         Valor esperado nivel de aceptación Regular:

〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟏= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟏+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟏
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟏= 1217043.71
〖𝑽𝑬
〖 𝑽𝑬〗
〗_𝟐𝟐= 〖𝑷𝑷
_𝟏𝟏=〖 𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟐+
〗 _𝟏𝟐 _𝟏𝟏+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐
_𝟐𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟏
_𝟐𝟐 〖
〖 ++ 𝑷𝑷
𝑷𝑷〗〗 _𝟑𝟏 〖∗𝑼𝑼〗
_𝟑𝟐 〖∗ 〗_𝟑𝟏
_𝟑𝟐
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟐=
_𝟏𝟏= 1094252.01
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟑= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟑+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟑
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟑= 1208196.04
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟒= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟒+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟒 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟐 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟒
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟒= 1092627.92
𝑴𝒂𝒙 〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐=1217043.71

·         Valor esperado nivel de aceptación Malo:

〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟏= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟏+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟏
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟏= 1082083.59
〖𝑽𝑬
〖 𝑽𝑬〗
〗_𝟑𝟐= 〖𝑷𝑷
_𝟏𝟏=〖 𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟐+
〗 _𝟏𝟑 _𝟏𝟏+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑
_𝟐𝟏 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟏
_𝟐𝟐 〖
〖 ++ 𝑷𝑷
𝑷𝑷〗〗 _𝟑𝟏 〖∗𝑼𝑼〗
_𝟑𝟑 〖∗ 〗_𝟑𝟏
_𝟑𝟐
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟐=
_𝟏𝟏= 894231.151
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟑= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟑+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟑
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟑= 949422.732
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟒= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟏𝟒+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟐𝟒 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟑 〖∗𝑼〗 _𝟑𝟒
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟒= 892885.261
𝑴𝒂𝒙 〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑= 1082083.59

En resumen,
 NIVEL DE
ACEPTACION MAXIMO VALOR ESPERADO

EXCELENTE Max VE1 = 889234.046145189

REGULAR Max VE2 = 1217043.70607029
MALO Max VE3 = 1082083.58843537

4. VALOR ESPERADO DE LA INFORMACION DE LA MUESTRA CON UTILIDADES

NIVEL DE PROBABILIDADES
ACEPTACION MAXIMO VALOR ESPERADO CONJUNTAS

EXCELENTE Max VE1= 889234.046145189 PC1 = 0.1777

REGULAR Max VE2 = 1217043.70607029 PC2 = 0.4695
MALO Max VE3 = 1082083.58843537 PC3 = 0.3528

Entonces,

𝑼𝑬𝑪𝑰𝑴= (𝑴𝒂𝒙 〖〖𝑽𝑬〗 _(𝟏 )∗ 𝑷𝑪 〗 _(𝟏 ))+(𝑴𝒂𝒙 〖〖𝑽𝑬〗 _(𝟐 )∗ 𝑷𝑪 〗 _𝟐)+(𝑴𝒂𝒙 〖〖𝑽𝑬〗 _(𝟑 )∗ 𝑷𝑪 〗 _(𝟑 ))" "
𝑼𝑬𝑪𝑰𝑴= 1111178
Entonces,

𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑴=𝑴𝒂𝒙 𝑼_𝟏𝒋∗𝑷_𝟏+ 𝑴𝒂𝒙 𝑼_𝟐𝒋∗𝑷_𝟐+𝑴𝒂𝒙 𝑼_𝟑𝒋∗𝑷_𝟑

𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑴= 422651.29

Entonces,

𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑴=𝑼𝑬𝑪𝑰𝑴 −𝑼𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑴
𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑴= 688526.71
Entonces,

𝑬𝑰𝑴= (𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑴 )/𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑷∗𝟏𝟎𝟎

𝑬𝑰𝑴= 2270.7983
teriormente:
_(𝟑 )∗ 𝑷𝑪 〗 _(𝟑 ))" "
 2. CRITERIO DEL VALOR ESPERADO CON PERDIDAS
RELACION DEL PUNTO DE DISTRIBUCION CON PERIDAS

ESTADOS DE LA NATURALEZA (i)

ALTERNATIVAS DEMANDA ALTA DEMANDA MEDIA

DE DECISION (j) PERDIDAS ($) PERDIDAS ($)

ON LINE C11 = 0.1 * U11 = 43550.6 C21 = 0.1 * U21 = 37945.5

GRANDES C12 = 0.1 * U12 =
SUPERFICIES 41633.2 C22 = 0.1 * U22 = 33772.1
TIENDAS C13 = 0.1 * U13= 49885.6 C23 = 0.1 * U23 = 35483.6
PUNTO DE C14 = 0.1 * U14=
VENTA 41320.9 C24 = 0.1 * U24 = 33873

PROBABILIDAD P1 = P2 =
DE OCURRENCIA 0.55 0.18
 ESTADOS DE LA NATURALEZA
DEMANDA ALTA DEMANDA MEDIA
(i =1) (i = 2)

MINIMA
PERDIDA DE LAS
ALTERNATIVAS Min C1j = Min C2j =
DE DECISION 41320.9 33772.1

(j = 1, 2, 3, 4)

PROBABILIDAD P1 = P2 =
DE OCURRENCIA 0.55 0.18

Entonces,

𝑪𝑬𝑪𝑰𝑷=(𝑴𝒊𝒏 𝑪_𝟏𝒋∗𝑷_𝟏)+ (𝑴𝒊𝒏 𝑪_𝟐𝒋∗𝑷_𝟐)+(𝑴𝒊𝒏 𝑪_𝟑𝒋∗𝑷_𝟑)

𝑪𝑬𝑪𝑰𝑷= 34214.383
 CESIP On Line
〖𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟏=𝑷_𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟏+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟏
〖𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟏= 38780.879

CESIP Grandes Superficies

〖𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟐=𝑷_𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟐+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟐
〖𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟐= 34677.181

CESIP Tiendas
〖𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟑=𝑷_𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟑+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟑
〖𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟑= 39233.038

CESIP Puntos de Venta

〖𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟒=𝑷_𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟒+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟒 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟒
〖𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝟒= 34530.058

Por último, seleccionar el valor mínimo 〖𝑴𝒊𝒏 𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗

dentro
_𝒋 de los determinados anteriormente:

〖𝑴𝒊𝒏 𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷〗 _𝒋= 34530.058

CESIP= 34530.058

Determinar,

𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑷=𝑪𝑬𝑪𝑰𝑷−𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑷
𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑷= -315.675

3. CRITERIO BAYESIANO DE DECISION CON PERDIDAS

ESTADOS DE LA NATURALEZA (i)

DEMANDA ALTA DEMANDA MEDIA
 PROBABILIDAD P1 = P2 =
DE OCURRENCIA 0.55 0.18

EXCELENTE P11 = 0.22 P21 = 0.00

REGULAR P12 = 0.51 P22 = 0.78
MALO P13 = 0.27 P23 = 0.22
NIVEL DE INDICADORES DE MERCADO
ACEPTACION

Entonces,

a. Probabilidades conjuntas:

• Probabilidades conjuntas nivel de aceptación Excelente 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏 ":"

〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏=𝑷_𝟏∗𝑷_𝟏𝟏+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑷〗 _(𝟐𝟏 ) 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑∗𝑷_𝟑𝟏
〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏= 0.1777

• Probabilidades conjuntas nivel de aceptación Regular 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐 ":"

〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐=𝑷_𝟏∗𝑷_𝟏𝟐+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑷〗 _(𝟐𝟐 ) 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑∗𝑷_𝟑𝟐
〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐= 0.4695

• Probabilidades conjuntas nivel de aceptación Malo 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑 ":"

〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑=𝑷_𝟏∗𝑷_𝟏𝟑+𝑷_𝟐 〖∗𝑷〗 _(𝟐𝟑 ) 〖 + 𝑷 〗 _𝟑∗𝑷_𝟑𝟑
〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑= 0.3528

b. Probabilidades posteriores del nivel de aceptación 𝑷𝑷": "

Probabilidades posteriores nivel de aceptación Excelente:

〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏=𝑷_𝟏𝟏/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏=1.23804164321891
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏=𝑷_𝟐𝟏/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏= 0
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟏=𝑷_𝟑𝟏/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟏=1.18176702307259

Probabilidades posteriores nivel de aceptación Regular:

〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟐=𝑷_𝟏𝟐/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟐=1.08626198083067
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐=𝑷_𝟐𝟐/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐=1.66134185303514
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟐=𝑷_𝟑𝟐/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟐=0.38338658146965
 Probabilidades posteriores nivel de aceptación Malo:
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟑=𝑷_𝟏𝟑/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟑=0.76530612244898
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑=𝑷_𝟐𝟑/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑=0.62358276643991
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟑=𝑷_𝟑𝟑/ 〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑
〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟑𝟑=1.72902494331066

Entonces,

·         Valor esperado nivel de aceptación Excelente:

〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟏= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟏+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟏
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟏= 88923.4046145189
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟐= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟐+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟐
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟐=
_𝟏𝟏= 76491.8007878447
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟑= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟑+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟑
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟑= 85434.7889701745
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟒= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟒+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟒 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟏 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟒
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏𝟒= 76133.5227912212
𝑴𝒊𝒏 〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟏=76133.5227912212

·         Valor esperado nivel de aceptación Regular:

〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟏= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟏+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟏
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟏= 121704.370607029
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟐= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟐+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟐
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟐=
_𝟏𝟏= 109425.201277955
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟑= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟑+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟑
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟑= 120819.603833866
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟒= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟒+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟒 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟐 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟒
 〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐𝟒= 109262.792332268
𝑴𝒊𝒏 〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟐=
109262.792332268

·         Valor esperado nivel de aceptación Malo:

〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟏= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟏+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟏 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟏
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟏= 108208.358843537
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟐= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟐+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟐 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟐
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟐=
_𝟏𝟏= 89423.1150793651
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟑= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟑+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟑
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟑= 94942.2732426304
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟒= 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟏𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟏𝟒+ 〖𝑷𝑷〗 _𝟐𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟐𝟒 〖 + 𝑷𝑷 〗 _𝟑𝟑 〖∗𝑪〗 _𝟑𝟒
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑𝟒= 89288.5260770975
𝑴𝒊𝒏 〖𝑽𝑬〗 _𝟑=89288.5260770975

En resumen,

NIVEL DE MINIMO VALOR ESPERADO

ACEPTACION

EXCELENTE Min VE1 = 76133.522791

REGULAR Min VE2 = 109262.79233
MALO Min VE3 = 89288.526077

4. VALOR ESPERADO DE LA INFORMACION DE LA MUESTRA CON PERDIDAS

NIVEL DE MINIMO VALOR ESPERADO PROBABILIDADES CONJUNTAS

ACEPTACION

EXCELENTE Min VE1= 76133.522791 PC1 = 0.1777

REGULAR Min VE2 = 109262.79233 PC2 = 0.4695
MALO Min VE3 = 89288.526077 PC3 = 0.3528
 Entonces,

𝑪𝑬𝑪𝑰𝑴= (𝑴𝒊𝒏 〖〖𝑽𝑬〗 _(𝟏 )∗ 𝑷𝑪 〗 _(𝟏 ))+(𝑴𝒊𝒏 〖〖𝑽𝑬〗 _(𝟐 )∗ 𝑷𝑪 〗 _𝟐)+(𝑴𝒊𝒏 〖〖𝑽𝑬〗 _(𝟑 )∗ 𝑷𝑪 〗 _(𝟑 ))
𝑪𝑬𝑪𝑰𝑴= 96328.8

Entonces,

𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑴=(𝑴𝒊𝒏 𝑪_𝟏𝒋∗𝑷_𝟏)+ (𝑴𝒊𝒏 𝑪_𝟐𝒋∗𝑷_𝟐)+(𝑴𝒊𝒏 𝑪_𝟑𝒋∗𝑷_𝟑)

𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑴= 34214.383
Entonces,

𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑴=𝑪𝑬𝑪𝑰𝑴 −𝑪𝑬𝑺𝑰𝑴
𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑴= 2.81544752684858

Entonces,

𝑬𝑰𝑴= (𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑴 )/𝑽𝑬𝑰𝑷∗𝟏𝟎𝟎

𝑬𝑰𝑴= -0.8918816906149
ON PERDIDAS
N PERIDAS

LEZA (i)
DEMANDA BAJA
PERIDAS ($)

C31 = 0.1 * U31 = 29621.7

C32 = 0.1 * U32 = 21110.9
C33 = 0.1 * U33 = 20033
C34 = 0.1 * U34 = 21134.9

P3 = 0.27
ALEZA
DEMANDA BAJA
(i = 3)

Min C3j = 20033

P3 = 0.27
terminados anteriormente:

LEZA (i)
DEMANDA BAJA
 P3 = 0.27

P31 = 0.21
P32 = 0.18
P33 = 0.61
CADO

〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟏 ":"

〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟐 ":"

〖𝑷𝑪〗 _𝟑 ":"

𝑷𝑷": "
〖𝑽𝑬〗 _(𝟑 )∗ 𝑷𝑪 〗 _(𝟑 ))
 RELACION DE PARTICIPACION EN EL MERCA

DISTRIBUIDOR 1 DISTRIBUIDOR 2
PARTICIPACION INICIAL EN EL MERCADO 0.16 0.17

DISTRIBUIDOR 1 0.21 0.23

DISTRIBUIDOR 2 0.36 0.33
DISTRIBUIDOR 3 0.06 0.27
DISTRIBUIDOR 4 0.40 0.06

$ 393,303 $ 240,773
COSTOS

Nota: Para actualizar y generar los datos oprima f9, fn+

ACION DE PARTICIPACION EN EL MERCADO

DISTRIBUIDOR 3 DISTRIBUIDOR 4
0.45 0.22

0.26 0.30
0.25 0.06
PARTICIPACION ESTIMADA EN EL MERCADO
0.42 0.25
0.15 0.39

$ 343,029 $ 233,952
COSTOS

alizar y generar los datos oprima f9, fn+f9 o ctrl+alt+f9

 1. ANÁLISIS DE MARKOV

RELACION DE PARTICIPACION EN EL MERCADO

DISTRIBUIDOR 1 DISTRIBUIDOR 2 DISTRIBUIDOR 3

PARTICIPACION
INICIAL EN EL F01 = 0.16 F02 = 0.17 F03 = 0.45
MERADO

DISTRIBUIDOR 1 P11 = 0.21 P12 = 0.23 P13 = 0.26

DISTRIBUIDOR 2 P21 = 0.36 P22 = 0.33 P23 = 0.25
DISTRIBUIDOR 3 P31 = 0.06 P32 = 0.27 P33 = 0.42
DISTRIBUIDOR 4 P41 = 0.40 P42 = 0.06 P43 = 0.15

C1 = 393303.00 C2 = 240773.00 C3 = 343029.00

COSTOS

Se tiene:

Las probabilidades del periodo inicial: 𝑷_𝟎

Periodo Po: Probabilidades del periodo inicial

0 F01 = 0.16 F02 = 0.17 F03 = 0.45

𝑷_𝟎=(𝑭_𝟎𝟏,𝑭_𝟎𝟐,𝑭_𝟎𝟑,𝑭_𝟎𝟒)

Las probabilidades de transición T:

T: Probabilidades de transición
Estado 1 2 3
1 P11 = 0.21 P12 = 0.23 P13 = 0.26
2 P21 = 0.36 P22 = 0.33 P23 = 0.25
3 P31 = 0.06 P32 = 0.27 P33 = 0.42
4 P41 = 0.40 P42 = 0.06 P43 = 0.15
 Si n=1, entonces
𝑃_1=𝑃_((1−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_1=𝑃_0* 𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟏=𝑷_𝟎* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟎𝟏= 0.0336 𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟎𝟏= 0.0368 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟎𝟏= 0.0416 𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟎𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟎𝟐= 0.0612 𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟎𝟐= 0.0561 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟎𝟐= 0.0425 𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟎𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟎𝟑= 0.027 𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟎𝟑= 0.1215 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟎𝟑= 0.189 𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟎𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟎𝟒= 0.088 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟎𝟒= 0.0132 𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟎𝟒= 0.033 𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟎𝟒=
Total
P1 F11 = 0.2098 F12 = 0.2276 F13= 0.3061

Si n=2, entonces
𝑃_2=𝑃_((2−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_2=𝑃_1∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟐=𝑷_𝟏* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏= 0.044058 𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏= 0.048254 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏= 0.054548 𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐= 0.081936 𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐= 0.075108 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐= 0.0569 𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑= 0.018366 𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑= 0.082647 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑= 0.128562 𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒= 0.1026 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒= 0.01539 𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒= 0.038475 𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒=
Total
P2 F21 = 0.24696 F22 = 0.221399 F23= 0.278485

Si n=3, entonces
𝑃_3=𝑃_((3−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_3=𝑃_2∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟑=𝑷_𝟐* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟐𝟏= 0.0518616 𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟐𝟏= 0.0568008 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟐𝟏= 0.0642096 𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟐𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟐𝟐= 0.07970364 𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟐𝟐= 0.07306167 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟐𝟐= 0.05534975 𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟐𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟐𝟑= 0.0167091 𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟐𝟑= 0.07519095 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟐𝟑= 0.1169637 𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟐𝟑=
𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟐𝟒= 𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟐𝟒=
 4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟐𝟒= 0.1012624 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟐𝟒= 0.01518936 𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟐𝟒= 0.0379734 𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟐𝟒=
Total
P3 F31 = 0.24953674 F32 = 0.22024278 F33= 0.27449645

Si n=4, entonces
𝑃_4=𝑃_((4−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_4=𝑃_3∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟒=𝑷_𝟑* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟑𝟏=0.05240272 𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟑𝟏= 0.05739345 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟑𝟏= 0.06487955 𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟑𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟑𝟐= 0.0792874 𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟑𝟐= 0.07268012 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟑𝟐= 0.0550607 𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟑𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟑𝟑= 0.01646979 𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟑𝟑= 0.07411404 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟑𝟑= 0.11528851 𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟑𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟑𝟒= 0.10228961 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟑𝟒= 0.01534344 𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟑𝟒= 0.0383586 𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟑𝟒=
Total
P4 F41 = 0.25044952 F42 = 0.21953105 F43= 0.27358736

Si n=5, entonces
𝑃_5=𝑃_((5−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_5=𝑃_4∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟓=𝑷_𝟒* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟒𝟏= 0.0525944 𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟒𝟏= 0.05760339 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟒𝟏= 0.06511687 𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟒𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟒𝟐= 0.07903118 𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟒𝟐= 0.07244525 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟒𝟐= 0.05488276 𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟒𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟒𝟑= 0.01641524 𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟒𝟑= 0.07386859 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟒𝟑= 0.11490669 𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟒𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟒𝟒= 0.10257283 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟒𝟒= 0.01538592 𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟒𝟒= 0.03846481 𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟒𝟒=
Total
P5 F51 = 0.25061365 F52 = 0.21930315 F53= 0.27337114

Si n=6, entonces
𝑃_6=𝑃_((6−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_6=𝑃_5∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟔=𝑷_𝟓* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟓𝟏=0.05262887 𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟓𝟏= 0.05764114 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟓𝟏= 0.06515955 𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟓𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟓𝟐= 0.07894913 𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟓𝟐= 0.07237004 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟓𝟐= 0.05482579 𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟓𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟓𝟑= 0.01640227 𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟓𝟑= 0.07381021 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟓𝟑= 0.11481588 𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟓𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟓𝟒= 0.10268483 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟓𝟒= 0.01540272 𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟓𝟒= 0.03850681 𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟓𝟒=
Total
P6 F61 = 0.25066509 F62 = 0.21922411 F63= 0.27330802

Si n=7, entonces
𝑃_7=𝑃_((7−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_7=𝑃_6∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟕=𝑷_𝟔* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟔𝟏=0.05263967 𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟔𝟏= 0.05765297 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟔𝟏= 0.06517292 𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟔𝟏=
𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟔𝟐=
 2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟔𝟐= 0.07892068 𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟔𝟐= 0.07234396 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟔𝟐= 0.05480603 𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟔𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟔𝟑= 0.01639848 𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟔𝟑= 0.07379317 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟔𝟑= 0.11478937 𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟔𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟔𝟒= 0.10272111 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟔𝟒= 0.01540817 𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟔𝟒= 0.03852042 𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟔𝟒=
Total
P7 F71 = 0.25067994 F72 = 0.21919826 F73= 0.27328874

Si n=8, entonces
𝑃_8=𝑃_((8−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_8=𝑃_7∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟖=𝑷_𝟕* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟕𝟏=0.05264279 𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟕𝟏= 0.05765639 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟕𝟏= 0.06517678 𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟕𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟕𝟐= 0.07891137 𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟕𝟐= 0.07233543 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟕𝟐= 0.05479957 𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟕𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟕𝟑= 0.01639732 𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟕𝟑= 0.07378796 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟕𝟑= 0.11478127 𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟕𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟕𝟒= 0.10273322 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟕𝟒= 0.01540998 𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟕𝟒= 0.03852496 𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟕𝟒=
Total
P8 F81 = 0.25068471 F82 = 0.21918975 F83= 0.27328258

Si n=9, entonces
𝑃_9=𝑃_((9−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_9=𝑃_8∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟗=𝑷_𝟖* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟖𝟏=0.05264379 𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟖𝟏= 0.05765748 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟖𝟏= 0.06517802 𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟖𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟖𝟐= 0.07890831 𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟖𝟐= 0.07233262 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟖𝟐= 0.05479744 𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟖𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟖𝟑= 0.01639695 𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟖𝟑= 0.0737863 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟖𝟑= 0.11477868 𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟖𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟖𝟒= 0.10273718 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟖𝟒= 0.01541058 𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟖𝟒= 0.03852644 𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟖𝟒=
Total
P9 F91 = 0.25068624 F92 = 0.21918698 F93= 0.27328059

Si n=10, entonces
𝑃_10=𝑃_((10−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_10=𝑃_9∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟏𝟎=𝑷_𝟗* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟗𝟏= 0.05264411𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟗𝟏= 0.05765783𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟗𝟏= 0.06517842𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟗𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟗𝟐= 0.07890731𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟗𝟐= 0.0723317 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟗𝟐= 0.05479674𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟗𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟗𝟑= 0.01639684𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟗𝟑= 0.07378576𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟗𝟑= 0.11477785𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟗𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟗𝟒= 0.10273848𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟗𝟒= 0.01541077𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟗𝟒= 0.03852693𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟗𝟒=
Total
P10 F101 = 0.25068674 F102 = 0.21918607 F103= 0.27327994

Si n=11, entonces
𝑃_11=𝑃_((11−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_11=𝑃_10∗𝑻

𝑷_𝟏𝟏=𝑷_𝟏𝟎* 𝑻
 Estado 𝑷_𝟏𝟏=𝑷_𝟏𝟎* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟏=0.05264421𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟏= 0.05765795𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟏= 0.06517855𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟐= 0.07890698𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟐= 0.0723314 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟐= 0.05479652𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟑= 0.0163968 𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟑= 0.07378558𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟑= 0.11477758
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_(𝟏𝟎𝟑=)
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟒= 0.1027389 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟒= 0.01541084𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟒= 0.03852709𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟒=
Total
P11 F111 = 0.2506869 F112 = 0.21918577 F113= 0.27327973

Si n=12, entonces
𝑃_12=𝑃_((12−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_12=𝑃_11∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟏𝟐=𝑷_𝟏𝟏* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟏=0.05264425𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟏= 0.05765799𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟏= 0.06517859𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟐= 0.07890688𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟐= 0.0723313 𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟐= 0.05479644𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟑= 0.01639678𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟑= 0.07378553𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟑= 0.11477749𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟒= 0.10273904𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟒= 0.01541086𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟒= 0.03852714𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟒=
Total
P12 F121 = 0.25068695 F122 = 0.21918567 F123= 0.27327966

Si n=13, entonces
𝑃_13=𝑃_((13−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_13=𝑃_12∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟏𝟑=𝑷_𝟏𝟐* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟏=0.05264426𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟏= 0.057658 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟏= 0.06517861𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟐= 0.07890684𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟐= 0.07233127𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟐= 0.05479642𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟑= 0.01639678𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟑= 0.07378551𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟑= 0.11477746𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟒= 0.10273908𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟒= 0.01541086𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟒= 0.03852716𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟒=
Total
p13 F131 = 0.25068697 F132 = 0.21918564 F133= 0.27327964

Si n=14, entonces
𝑃_14=𝑃_((14−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_14=𝑃_14∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟏𝟒=𝑷_𝟏𝟑* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟏=0.05264426𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟏= 0.057658 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟏= 0.06517861𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟐= 0.07890683𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟐= 0.07233126𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟐= 0.05479641𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟑= 0.01639678𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟑= 0.0737855 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟑= 0.11477745𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟒= 0.1027391 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟒= 0.01541086𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟒= 0.03852716𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟒=
Total
P14 F141 = 0.25068697 F142 = 0.21918563 F143= 0.27327963

Si n=15, entonces
𝑃_15=𝑃_((15−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_15=𝑃_14∗𝑻
𝑃_15=𝑃_((15−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_15=𝑃_14∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟏𝟓=𝑷_𝟏𝟒* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟏=0.05264426𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟏= 0.057658 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟏= 0.06517861𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟐= 0.07890683𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟐= 0.07233126𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟐= 0.05479641𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟑= 0.01639678𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟑= 0.0737855 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟑= 0.11477745𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟒= 0.1027391 𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟒= 0.01541087𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟒= 0.03852716𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟒=
Total
P15 F151 = 0.25068697 F152 = 0.21918563 F153= 0.27327963

Si n=16, entonces
𝑃_16=𝑃_((16−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_16=𝑃_15∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟏𝟔=𝑷_𝟏𝟓* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟏=0.05264426𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟏= 0.057658 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟏= 0.06517861𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟐= 0.07890683𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟐= 0.07233126𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟐= 0.05479641𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟑= 0.01639678𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟑= 0.0737855 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟑= 0.11477745𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟒= 0.10273911𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟒= 0.01541087𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟒= 0.03852716𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟒=
Total
P16 F161 = 0.25068698 F162 = 0.21918563 F163= 0.27327963

Si n=17, entonces
𝑃_17=𝑃_((17−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_17=𝑃_16∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟏𝟕=𝑷_𝟏𝟔* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟏=0.05264426𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟏= 0.057658 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟏= 0.06517861𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟐= 0.07890683𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟐= 0.07233126𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟐= 0.05479641𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟑= 0.01639678𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟑= 0.0737855 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟑= 0.11477744𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟒= 0.10273911𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟒= 0.01541087𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟒= 0.03852716𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟒=
Total
P17 F171 = 0.25068698 F172 = 0.21918563 F173= 0.27327963

Si n=18, entonces
𝑃_18=𝑃_((18−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_18=𝑃_17∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟏𝟖=𝑷_𝟏𝟕* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟏=0.05264426𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟏= 0.057658 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟏= 0.06517861𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟐= 0.07890683𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟐= 0.07233126𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟐= 0.05479641𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟑= 0.01639678𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟑= 0.0737855 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟑= 0.11477744𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟒= 0.10273911𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟒= 0.01541087𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟒= 0.03852717𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟒=
Total
P18 F181 = 0.25068698 F182 = 0.21918563 F183= 0.27327963
 Si n=19, entonces
𝑃_19=𝑃_((19−1) )∗𝑻
𝑃_19=𝑃_18∗𝑻

Estado 𝑷_𝟏𝟗=𝑷_𝟏𝟖* 𝑻
1 𝑷_𝟏𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟏=0.05264426𝑷_𝟏𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟏= 0.057658 𝑷_𝟏𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟏= 0.06517861𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟏=
2 𝑷_𝟐𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟐= 0.07890683𝑷_𝟐𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟐= 0.07233126𝑷_𝟐𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟐= 0.05479641𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟐=
3 𝑷_𝟑𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟑= 0.01639678𝑷_𝟑𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟑= 0.0737855 𝑷_𝟑𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟑= 0.11477744𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟑=
4 𝑷_𝟒𝟏∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟒= 0.10273911𝑷_𝟒𝟐∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟒= 0.01541087𝑷_𝟒𝟑∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟒= 0.03852717𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟒=
Total
P19 F191 = 0.25068698 F192 = 0.21918563 F193= 0.27327963

Probabilidades estacionarias por periodo

Periodo Distribuidor 1 Distribuidor 2 Distribuidor 3
P1 F11 = 0.2098 F12 = 0.2276 F13= 0.3061
P2 F21 = 0.24696 F22 = 0.221399 F23= 0.278485
P3 F31 = 0.24953674 F32 = 0.22024278 F33= 0.27449645
P4 F41 = 0.25044952 F42 = 0.21953105 F43= 0.27358736
P5 F51 = 0.25061365 F52 = 0.21930315 F53= 0.27337114
P6 F61 = 0.25066509 F62 = 0.21922411 F63= 0.27330802
P7 F71 = 0.25067994 F72 = 0.21919826 F73= 0.27328874
P8 F81 = 0.25068471 F82 = 0.21918975 F83= 0.27328258
P9 F91 = 0.25068624 F92 = 0.21918698 F93= 0.27328059
P10 F101 = 0.25068674 F102 = 0.21918607 F103= 0.27327994
P11 F111 = 0.2506869 F112 = 0.21918577 F113= 0.27327973
P12 F121 = 0.25068695 F122 = 0.21918567 F123= 0.27327966
p13 F131 = 0.25068697 F132 = 0.21918564 F133= 0.27327964
P14 F141 = 0.25068697 F142 = 0.21918563 F143= 0.27327963
P15 F151 = 0.25068697 F152 = 0.21918563 F153= 0.27327963
P16 F161 = 0.25068698 F162 = 0.21918563 F163= 0.27327963
P17 F171 = 0.25068698 F172 = 0.21918563 F173= 0.27327963
P18 F181 = 0.25068698 F182 = 0.21918563 F183= 0.27327963
P19 F191 = 0.25068698 F192 = 0.21918563 F193= 0.27327963

Por último, en resumen, las probabilidades de estado estable son:

Probabilidades del estado estable

Periodo Distribuidor 1 Distribuidor 2 Distribuidor 3
P18 F181 = 0.25068698 F182 = 0.21918563 F183= 0.27327963
Reemplazamos valores en las ecuaciones,

Ecuación 1
(𝟎,𝟐𝟏𝑿_𝟏−𝑿_𝟏)+𝟎,𝟑𝟔𝑿_𝟐+𝟎,𝟎𝟔𝑿_𝟑+𝟎,𝟒𝟎𝑿_𝟒= 𝟎
−𝟎,𝟕𝟗𝑿_𝟏+𝟎,𝟑𝟔𝑿_𝟐+𝟎,𝟎𝟔𝑿_𝟑+𝟎,𝟒𝟎𝑿_𝟒= 𝟎

Ecuación 2
𝟎,𝟐𝟑𝑿_𝟏+(𝟎,𝟑𝟑𝑿_𝟐−𝑿_𝟐 )+𝟎,𝟐𝟕𝑿_𝟑+𝟎,𝟎𝟔𝑿_𝟒= 𝟎
𝟎,𝟐𝟑𝑿_𝟏−𝟎,𝟔𝟕𝑿_𝟐+𝟎,𝟐𝟕𝑿_𝟑+𝟎,𝟎𝟔𝑿_𝟒= 𝟎

Ecuación 3
𝟎,𝟐𝟔𝑿_𝟏+𝟎,𝟐𝟓𝑿_𝟐+(𝟎,𝟒𝟐𝑿_𝟑−𝑿_𝟑 )+𝟎,𝟏𝟓𝑿_𝟒= 𝟎
𝟎,𝟐𝟔𝑿_𝟏+𝟎,𝟐𝟓𝑿_𝟐−𝟎,𝟓𝟖𝑿_𝟑+𝟎,𝟏𝟓𝑿_𝟒= 𝟎

Ecuación 4
𝟎,𝟑𝟎𝑿_𝟏+𝟎,𝟎𝟔𝑿_𝟐+𝟎,𝟐𝟓𝑿_𝟑+(𝟎,𝟑𝟗𝑿_𝟒−𝑿_𝟒)= 𝟎
𝟎,𝟑𝟎𝑿_𝟏+𝟎,𝟎𝟔𝑿_𝟐+𝟎,𝟐𝟓𝑿_𝟑−𝟎,𝟔𝟏𝑿_𝟒= 𝟎

MÉTODO DE GAUSS JORDAN

REPRESENTACIÓN FORMA MATRICIAL

-0.790 0.360 0.060 0.400 X1 0.000
 0.230 -0.670 0.270 0.060 X2 0.000
0.260 0.250 -0.580 0.150 X3 0.000
0.300 0.060 0.250 -0.610 X4 0.000

1 -0.4556962 -0.07594937 -0.50632911 0 1

0 -0.56518987 0.28746835 0.1764557 0 0
0 0.36848101 -0.56025316 0.28164557 0 0
0 0.19670886 0.27278481 -0.45810127 0 0

1 0 0 -0.97601384 0
0 1 0 -0.85336785 0
0 0 1 -1.06397511 0
0 0 0 0 0

Resultado:
Se concluye que el sistema tiene multiples soluciones

𝑋_1−"0,97601384 " 𝑋_4=0

𝑋_2−"0,85336785 " 𝑋_4=0
𝑋_3−"1,06397511 " 𝑋_4=0
ADO

DISTRIBUIDOR 4

F04 = 0.22

P14 = 0.30
P24 = 0.06 PARTICIPACION
ESTIMADA EN EL
P34 = 0.25 MERCADO

P44 = 0.39

C4 = 233952.00

nicial
F04 = 0.22

4
P14 = 0.30
P24 = 0.06
P34 = 0.25
P44 = 0.39
𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟎𝟏= 0.048
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟎𝟐= 0.0102
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟎𝟑= 0.1125
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟎𝟒= 0.0858

F14= 0.2565

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏= 0.06294
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐= 0.013656
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑= 0.076525
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒= 0.100035

F24= 0.253156

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟐𝟏= 0.074088
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟐𝟐= 0.01328394
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟐𝟑= 0.06962125
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟐𝟒=
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟐𝟒= 0.09873084

F34= 0.25572403

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟑𝟏= 0.074861022
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟑𝟐=0.0132145668
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟑𝟑=0.0686241125
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟑𝟒=0.0997323717

F44= 0.256432073

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟒𝟏=0.0751348546
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟒𝟐=0.0131718631
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟒𝟑=0.0683968402
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟒𝟒=0.1000085085

F54= 0.2567120663

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟓𝟏=0.0751840942
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟓𝟐=0.0131581888
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟓𝟑=0.0683427848
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟓𝟒=0.1001177059

F64= 0.2568027737

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟔𝟏=0.0751995281
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟔𝟐=0.0131534465
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟔𝟑=0.0683270059
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟔𝟒=0.1001530817

F74= 0.2568330623

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟕𝟏=0.0752039819
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟕𝟐=0.0131518956
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟕𝟑=0.0683221844
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟕𝟒=0.1001648943

F84= 0.2568429563

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟖𝟏=0.0752054131
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟖𝟐=0.0131513853
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟖𝟑=0.0683206446
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟖𝟒=0.1001687529

F94= 0.2568461959

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟗𝟏= 0.0752058714
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟗𝟐= 0.0131512186
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟗𝟑= 0.0683201475
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟗𝟒= 0.1001700164

F104= 0.2568472539
 𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟏=0.0752060205
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟐=0.0131511641
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_(𝟏𝟎𝟑=)
0.0683199858
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟎𝟒= 0.100170429

F114= 0.2568475994

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟏=0.0752060691
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟐=0.0131511463
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟑=0.0683199331
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟏𝟒=0.1001705638

F124= 0.2568477122

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟏=0.0752060849
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟐=0.0131511405
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟑=0.0683199159
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟐𝟒=0.1001706078

F134= 0.256847749

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟏=0.0752060901
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟐=0.0131511386
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟑=0.0683199103
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟑𝟒=0.1001706221

F144= 0.2568477611
𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟏=0.0752060918
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟐= 0.013151138
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟑=0.0683199084
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟒𝟒=0.1001706268

F154= 0.256847765

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟏=0.0752060923
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟐=0.0131511378
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟑=0.0683199078
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟓𝟒=0.1001706283

F164= 0.2568477663

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟏=0.0752060925
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟐=0.0131511377
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟑=0.0683199076
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟔𝟒=0.1001706288

F174= 0.2568477667

𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟏=0.0752060926
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟐=0.0131511377
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟑=0.0683199076
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟕𝟒= 0.100170629

F184= 0.2568477668
𝑷_𝟏𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟏=0.0752060926
𝑷_𝟐𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟐=0.0131511377
𝑷_𝟑𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟑=0.0683199076
𝑷_𝟒𝟒∗𝑭_𝟏𝟖𝟒=0.1001706291

F194= 0.2568477669

Distribuidor 4
F14= 0.2565
F24= 0.253156
F34= 0.25572403
F44= 0.256432073
F54= 0.2567120663
F64= 0.2568027737
F74= 0.2568330623
F84= 0.2568429563
F94= 0.2568461959
F104= 0.2568472539
F114= 0.2568475994
F124= 0.2568477122
F134= 0.256847749
F144= 0.2568477611
F154= 0.256847765
F164= 0.2568477663
F174= 0.2568477667
F184= 0.2568477668
F194= 0.2568477669

Distribuidor 4
F184= 0.2568477668
 FORMA MATRIZ AUMENTADA
-0.790 0.360 0.060 0.400 0.000
0.230 -0.670 0.270 0.060 0.000
0.260 0.250 -0.580 0.150 0.000
0.300 0.060 0.250 -0.610 0.000

0 -0.307726764 -0.64860022 0
1 -0.50862262 -0.31220605 0
0 -0.372835386 0.39668757 0
0 0.3728353863 -0.39668757 0
2. PROCESO DE MARKOV

RELACION DE PARTICIPACION EN EL MERCADO

DISTRIBUIDOR 1 DISTRIBUIDOR 2 DISTRIBUIDOR 3

PARTICIPACION
INICIAL EN EL F01 = 0.16 F02 = 0.17 F03 = 0.45
MERADO

DISTRIBUIDOR 1 P11 = 0.21 P12 = 0.23 P13 = 0.26

DISTRIBUIDOR 2 P21 = 0.36 P22 = 0.33 P23 = 0.25
DISTRIBUIDOR 3 P31 = 0.06 P32 = 0.27 P33 = 0.42
DISTRIBUIDOR 4 P41 = 0.40 P42 = 0.06 P43 = 0.15

C1 = 393303.00 C2 = 240773.00 C3 = 343029.00

COSTOS
 Probabilidades estacionarias por periodo
Periodo Distribuidor 1 Distribuidor 2 Distribuidor 3
P1 F11 = 0.2098 F12 = 0.2276 F13= 0.3061
P2 F21 = 0.24696 F22 = 0.221399 F23= 0.278485
P3 F31 = 0.24953674 F32 = 0.22024278 F33= 0.27449645
P4 F41 = 0.25044952 F42 = 0.21953105 F43= 0.27358736
P5 F51 = 0.25061365 F52 = 0.21930315 F53= 0.27337114
P6 F61 = 0.25066509 F62 = 0.21922411 F63= 0.27330802
P7 F71 = 0.25067994 F72 = 0.21919826 F73= 0.27328874
P8 F81 = 0.25068471 F82 = 0.21918975 F83= 0.27328258
P9 F91 = 0.25068624 F92 = 0.21918698 F93= 0.27328059
P10 F101 = 0.25068674 F102 = 0.21918607 F103= 0.27327994
P11 F111 = 0.2506869 F112 = 0.21918577 F113= 0.27327973
P12 F121 = 0.25068695 F122 = 0.21918567 F123= 0.27327966
p13 F131 = 0.25068697 F132 = 0.21918564 F133= 0.27327964
P14 F141 = 0.25068697 F142 = 0.21918563 F143= 0.27327963
P15 F151 = 0.25068697 F152 = 0.21918563 F153= 0.27327963
P16 F161 = 0.25068698 F162 = 0.21918563 F163= 0.27327963
P17 F171 = 0.25068698 F172 = 0.21918563 F173= 0.27327963
P18 F181 = 0.25068698 F182 = 0.21918563 F183= 0.27327963
P19 F191 = 0.25068698 F192 = 0.21918563 F193= 0.27327963
POLITICA 1 302324.769
POLITICA 2 305191.794
POLITICA 3 305159.454
POLITICA 4 305200.891
POLITICA 5 305201.906
POLITICA 6 305202.68
POLITICA 7 305202.766
POLITICA 8 305202.796
POLITICA 9 305202.804
POLITICA 10 305202.806
POLITICA 11 305202.807
POLITICA 12 305202.807
POLITICA 13 305202.808
POLITICA 14 305202.808
POLITICA 15 305202.808
POLITICA 16 305202.808
POLITICA 17 305202.808
POLITICA 18 305202.808
POLITICA 19 305202.808
DO

DISTRIBUIDOR 4

F04 = 0.22

P14 = 0.30
P24 = 0.06 PARTICIPACION
ESTIMADA EN EL
P34 = 0.25 MERCADO

P44 = 0.39

C4 = 233952.00
 Distribuidor 4
F14= 0.2565
F24= 0.253156
F34= 0.25572403
F44= 0.25643207
F54= 0.25671207
F64= 0.25680277
F74= 0.25683306
F84= 0.25684296
F94= 0.2568462
F104= 0.25684725
F114= 0.2568476
F124= 0.25684771
F134= 0.25684775
F144= 0.25684776
F154= 0.25684776
F164= 0.25684777
F174= 0.25684777
F184= 0.25684777
F194= 0.25684777
 BIBLIOGRAFIA
Guerrero, S., Mayorga, M. y De Antonio, O. (2014). Teoría de la decisión aplicada: análisis de
decisiones bajo incertidumbre, riesgo y teoría de juegos (pp. 100 -119). Bogotá, Colombia: Editorial
Ecoe Ediciones. Recuperado de http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co/login?
url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=edsebk&AN=1516150&lang=es&site=eds-
live

Rojas, A. y Carvajal, P. (2018). Criterios de decisión con riesgo [OVI]. Recuperado

de http://hdl.handle.net/10596/23054

Rojas, A. (2018). Decisiones con riesgo [OVA]. Recuperado de http://hdl.handle.net/10596/22969

OGRAFIA
(2014). Teoría de la decisión aplicada: análisis de
juegos (pp. 100 -119). Bogotá, Colombia: Editorial
irtual.unad.edu.co/login?
t=true&db=edsebk&AN=1516150&lang=es&site=eds-

decisión con riesgo [OVI]. Recuperado

Recuperado de http://hdl.handle.net/10596/22969