Home Work 2

CE 463: Probabilistic and Statistical Methods in Civil Engineering

Course Instructor: Prof. Gopal R. Patil
Date: 17-Sep-19

1. The inflow to the Koyna dam, Satara, Maharashtra during the recent heavy rains is a normal
random variable estimated to have mean of 1.3 lakh cusecs per day and a standard deviation
of 0.5 lakh cusecs per day. If the dam is designed for 105 TMC which would be reached if
inflow exceeds 1.5 lakh cusecs, (i) what is the probability of lifting the gates of dam? (ii) What
is the probability that the inflow to the dam during these heavy rains would be in between 1.2
lakh cusecs and 1.7 lakh cusecs? (iii) Also, what is the 95 percentile inflow to the dam during
the heavy rains?

2. An apartment building has leakage issues and time interval between the occurrences of
leakage follows lognormal distribution with a median of 1 year and c.o.v. of 0.3. (i) What
should be the interval between the maintenance works so that 95% of the time, the building
should not have any leakage. (ii) If in case, there is no issue of leakage during the scheduled
maintenance time, what is the probability that the building will not have any problem for next
3 months?

3. During ICC cricket world cup 2019, Indian batsman Mr. Rohit Sharma scored 122, 57, 140, 1,
18, 102, 104 and 103 runs in 8 league stage matches and these matches were followed by the
semi-final. Considering the particular amount of runs scored as an independently occurring
event, with the help of given data of the tournament, find out: (i) Probability that Rohit
Sharma would have got a double digit score in the semi-final. (ii) Probability that Rohit Sharma
would have scored more than 50 in the semi-final. (iii) Probability that Rohit Sharma would
have hit a century in the semi-final. [Here we will first cry in dark and help ourselves to ignore
the bitter truth that he was caught behind on an excellent delivery by Matt Henry on just 1
run].

4. You want to go to Borivali from the institute in the cheapest possible way and so you choose
to go by the BEST bus. You are standing at main gate bus stop waiting for the bus. As you never
travelled by BEST before, you ask a random stranger “When will the bus for Borivali arrive?”.
The stranger answers that the bus going to Borivali has a frequency of 5 per hour (all routes
combined). Find out the average time (in minutes) that you have to wait for (considering that
every bus arrival is an independent event). Let’s call this time as ‘t’. After waiting for more
than ‘2t’ minutes, you didn’t get the bus for Borivali (Thanks to messed up timetables). Out of
frustration, you ask the same stranger “How much more time will it take?”. The stranger
answers “you have waited for so long, so now bus will come in time lesser that ‘t’ minutes”.
Using the probability distribution theory, state weather the stranger was correct or not and
actual time that you will have to wait further.

5. The delay time for a given flight is exponentially distributed with a mean of 0.5 hr. ten
passengers on this flight need to take a subsequent connecting flight. The scheduled
connection time is either 1 or 2 hr depending on the final destination. Suppose three and
seven passengers are associated with these connection times, respectively. (i) Suppose john
is one of the ten passengers needing a connection. What is the probability that he will miss
his connection? (i) Suppose he met Mike on plane, and mike also needs to make Connection.
However, Mike is going to another destination and thus has a different connection time from
John’s. What is the probability that both john and mike will miss their connections? (iii) A
friend of john’s named Mary, happen to live close to the airport where john makes his
connection. She would like to take this opportunity to meet john at the airport. Suppose she
has already waited for 30 min beyond john’s scheduled arrival time. What is the probability
that john will miss his connection so that they could have a leisurely dinner together? Assume
John’s scheduled connection time in 1 hr in part (iii).