Nº AÑO POBLACION X X^2 X^3 X^4

1 1,990 774,824 1 1 1 1
2 1,995 921,207 2 4 8 16
3 2,000 1,065,379 3 9 27 81
4 2,005 1,207,470 4 16 64 256
5 2,010 1,391,803 5 25 125 625
6 2,015 1,554,026 6 36 216 1,296
7 2,020 7 49 343 2,401
8 2,025 8 64 512 4,096
9 2,000 9 81 729 6,561
10
11
SUMAS 66 18,060 6,914,709 45 285 2,025 15,333
12 2,015 12 144
13 2,020 13 169
14 2,025 14 196
15 2,030 15 225
16 2,035 16 256 147000.00
17 2,040 17 289 144172.00
142091.00
ECC. DE LA CURVA 162223.00
Y = A + BX +CX^2

ECC. DE REGRESION ECC. DE REGRESION

εY = NA + B εx +εx^2 6914709 =A 7+ 45B + C 285
εXY = A Εx + b ε x^2 + c ε x^3 26926426= A 45+ 285 B+C 2025
εX^2y = A Εx^2 + b ε x^3 + c ε x^4 124107594= A 285+ 2025 B+C 15333

MATRIZ DE PARABOLA DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS

a b c e
11 45 285 6,914,709
45 285 2,025 26,926,426
285 2,025 15,333 124,107,594

MATRIZ INVERSA
a b c e
0.38202247 -0.1601124 0.01404494 73404.809
-0.1601124 0.12404665 -0.0134065 569149.381
0.01404494 -0.0134065 0.00157474 -68436.723

RECTA DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS

Nº AÑO POBLACION X X^2 XY YC
1 1,930 774,824 1 1 774,824 1,290,511
2 1,940 921,207 2 4 1,842,414 1,158,131
 3 1,950 1,065,379 3 9 3,196,137 1,025,751
4 1,960 1,207,470 4 16 4,829,880 893,370
5 1,970 1,391,803 5 25 6,959,015 760,990
6 1,980 1,554,026 6 36 9,324,156 628,610
7 1,990 7 49 0
8 1,995 8 64 0
9 2,000 9 81 0
10 2,005 10 100 0
11 2,010 11 121 0
66 21,730 6,914,709 66 506 26,926,426
12 2,015 12
13 2,020 13
14 2,025 14
15 2,030 15
16 2,035 16
17 2,040 17

ECC. DE REGRESION ECC. DE REGRESION

εY = N*A + B Εx 6914709 = A 11 + B 66
εYX = εN*A + B Εx^2 26926426 = A 66 + B 506

MATRIZ DE RECTA DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS VECTOR DE RESULTADOS

a b c A
11 66 6,914,709 B
66 506 26,926,426

MATRIZ INVERSA
a b c
0.41818182 -0.0545455 1422891.44
-0.0545455 0.00909091 -132380.25
 XY X^2*Y YC 4,000,000
774,824 774,824 574,117
1,842,414 3,684,828 937,957
3,196,137 9,588,411 1,164,922 2,000,000
4,829,880 19,319,520 1,255,015
6,959,015 34,795,075 1,208,234 0
9,324,156 55,944,936 1,024,579 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
, , , , , , , ,
0 0 704,051 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 246,650 -2,000,000 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2
0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5
0 0 -347,625
-4,000,000

26,926,426 124,107,594
-2,951,691 -6,000,000
-4,093,459
-5,372,102 -8,000,000
-6,787,617
0.19 -8,340,006
0.157 -10,029,269 -10,000,000
0.133372
0.116555 -12,000,000

VECTOR DE RESULTADOS
A 73,404.81
B 569,149.38 Nº AÑO POBLACION
C -68,436.72 1 1,930 774,824
2 1,940 921,207
3 1,950 1,065,379
4 1,960 1,207,470
5 1,970 1,391,803
6 1,980 1,554,026
7 1,990
8 1,995
9 2,000
10 2,005
11 2,010

12 2,015
13 2,020
14 2,025
15 2,030
16 2,035
17 2,040

Nº AÑO POBLACION
 1 1,930 774,824
2 1,940 921,207
3 1,950 1,065,379
4 1,960 1,207,470
5 1,970 1,391,803
6 1,980 1,554,026
7 1,990
8 1,995
9 2,000
10 2,005
11 2,010

12 2,015
13 2,020
14 2,025
15 2,030
16 2,035
ECC. DE LA RECTA 17 2,040
Y = A + BX

VECTOR DE RESULTADOS
1,422,891
-132,380
 EJE Y POBLACIÒN

COMPARACION DE DATOS
DE PROYECTO Y
REGESION DE MINIMOS
CUADRADOS
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
, , , , , , , , , , , ,
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 1 1 2 2 0 1 2 2 3 3 4
5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 CURVA DE DATOS
CURVA MINIMOS CUADRADOS
RECTA DE MINIMOS CUADRADOS
METODO ARITMETICO
METODO GEOMETRICO

EJE X AÑOS DE PROYECTO

METODO ARITMETICO
YC
774,824
921,207
1,065,379
1,207,470
1,391,803
1,554,026 TAZA DE CRECIMIENTO R
1,457,173 R = PB2 - PB1/ T2 - T1
1,408,747 R -9685.3
1,360,320
1,311,894
1,263,467

1,215,041
1,166,614
1,118,188
1,069,761
1,021,335
972,908

METODO GEOMETRICO
YC
 774,824
921,207
1,065,379
1,207,470 TAZA DE CRECIMIENTO R
1,391,803 R = ((POB 2 / POB 1) ^ (1 / ( T2 - T1)) -1
1,554,026 R -1
 Puebla
PERIODO VIVIENDA
1990 774,824
1995 921,207 CT DE 1990 A 1995 146,383 DESARROLLO ( 921,207 -
2000 1,065,379 CT DE 1995 A 2000 144,172 DESARROLLO ( 1,065,379 -
2005 1,207,470 CT DE 2000 A 2005 142,091 DESARROLLO ( 1,207,470 -
2010 1,391,803 CT DE 2005 A 2010 184,333 DESARROLLO ( 1,391,803 -
2015 1,554,026 CT DE 2010 A 2015 162,223 DESARROLLO ( 1,554,026 -

Puebla
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

CDMX
PERIODO VIVIENDA
1990 1,798,067
1995 2,010,799 CT DE 1990 A 1995 212,732 DESARROLLO ( 2,010,799 -
2000 2,131,410 CT DE 1995 A 2000 120,611 DESARROLLO ( 2,131,410 -
2005 2,287,189 CT DE 2000 A 2005 155,779 DESARROLLO ( 2,287,189 -
2010 2,453,031 CT DE 2005 A 2010 165,842 DESARROLLO ( 2,453,031 -
2015 2,601,323 CT DE 2010 A 2015 148,292 DESARROLLO ( 2,601,323 -

CDMX
3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000
 2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Puebla 19%
PERIODO TASA DE CRECIMIENTO 16%
15%
1990 13%
1995 19% 12%
2000 16%
2005 13%
2010 15%
2015 12% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

CDMX
PERIODO TASA DE CRECIMIENTO 12%
1990
1995 12%
7% 7%
2000 6% 6% 6%
2005 7%
2010 7%
2015 6% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
 774,824 ) = 146,383
921,207 ) = 144,172
1,065,379 ) = 142,091
1,207,470 ) = 184,333
1,391,803 ) = 162,223

2015 2020

1,798,067 ) = 212,732
2,010,799 ) = 120,611
2,131,410 ) = 155,779
2,287,189 ) = 165,842
2,453,031 ) = 148,292