t Dt Ft Et | Et | | Et | / Dt

1 579 598 19 19 3.28%

2 583 592 9 9 1.54%
3 602 583 -19 19 3.16%
4 605 596 -9 9 1.49%
5 594 586 -8 8 1.35%
6 577 586 9 9 1.56%
7 598 579 -19 19 3.18%
8 595 601 6 6 1.01%
9 597 614 17 17 2.85%
10 599 591 -8 8 1.34%
11 624 622 -2 2 0.32%
12 608 602 -6 6 0.99%
13 627 625 -2 2 0.32%
14 608 601 -7 7 1.15%
15 626 636 10 10 1.60%
16 641 627 -14 14 2.18%

ME -1.5
MAD 10.25
MAPE 1.71%
 t Dt Ft Et | Et | | Et | / Dt
Jan-10 228.03 293.49 65.46 65.46 28.71%
Feb-10 229.41 227.82 -1.59 1.59 0.69%
Mar-10 230.80 231.78 0.98 0.98 0.42%
Apr-10 232.18 231.91 -0.27 0.27 0.12%
May-10 233.57 241.93 8.36 8.36 3.58%
Jun-10 234.95 262.85 27.9 27.9 11.87%
Jul-10 236.34 217.93 -18.41 18.41 7.79%
Aug-10 237.72 215.00 -22.72 22.72 9.56%
Sep-10 239.11 199.46 -39.65 39.65 16.58%
Oct-10 240.49 193.21 -47.28 47.28 19.66%
Nov-10 241.88 206.88 -35 35 14.47%
Dec-10 243.26 225.70 -17.56 17.56 7.22%

ME -6.6483333
MAD 23.765
MAPE 10.06%
Pronostico
Metodo 1
Pronostico
Metodo 2 Dt
223 210 256
289 320 340
430 390 375
134 112 110
190 150 225
550 490 525

ME
MAD
MAPE
t Dt Ft (PM)
1 200 Promedio movil
2 250 350
3 175 300
4 186 208.33 250
200
5 225 203.67 150
6 285 195.33 100
50
7 305 232.00 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
8 190 271.67
Dt Ft (PM)
9 260.00
 A B Alfa
t Dt Ft ( SES) Et Ft ( SES) Et 0.15
1 14 23.83 9.83 0.50
2 9 22.36 13.36
3 30 20.35 -9.65
4 22 21.80 -0.20
5 34 21.83 -12.17 -12.17 -46.17 validar el vaor de la demanda
6 12 23.66 11.66 10.92 -1.09
7 19 21.91 2.91 11.46 -7.54
8 23 21.47 -1.53 15.23 -7.77
9 35 21.70 -13.30 19.11 -15.89
10 27 23.70 -3.30 27.06 0.06
11 29 24.19 -4.81 27.03 -1.97
12 32 24.91 -7.09 28.01 -3.99
13 25.98 30.01

Suavizacion A Suavizac
40
40
35 30
30
25
20 20
15
10 10
5
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Dt Ft ( SES) -10

-20
Dt
de la demanda

Suavizacion B

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Dt Ft ( SES)