Semana Demanda Pronóstico Error Error %

1 260
2 251
3 235
4 234
5 287
6 314
7 304 263.50 40.5000 13.32%
8 310 270.83 39.1667 12.63%
9 272 280.67 8.6667 3.19%
10 330 286.83 43.1667 13.08%
11 315 302.83 12.1667 3.86%
12 330 307.50 22.5000 6.82%
13 327 310.17 16.8333 5.15%
14 320 314.00 6.0000 1.88%
15 282 315.67 33.6667 11.94%
16 250 317.33 67.3333 26.93%
17 285 304.00 19.0000 6.67%
18 335 299.00 36.0000 10.75%
19 330 299.83 30.1667 9.14%
20 290 300.33 10.3333 3.56%
21 285 295.33 10.3333 3.63%
22 265 295.83 30.8333 11.64%
23 251 298.33 47.3333 18.86%
24 278 292.67 14.6667 5.28%
25 347 283.17 63.8333 18.40%
26 339 286.00 53.0000 15.63%
27 312 294.17 17.8333 5.72%
28 274 298.67 24.6667 9.00%
29 285 300.17 15.1667 5.32%
30 318 305.83 12.1667 3.83%
31 326 312.50 13.5000 4.14%
32 331 309.00 22.0000 6.65%
33 335 307.67 27.3333 8.16%
34 310 311.50 1.5000 0.48%
35 325 317.50 7.5000 2.31%
36 355 324.17 30.8333 8.69%
37 391 330.33 60.6667 15.52%
38 412 341.17 70.8333 17.19%
39 349 354.67 5.6667 1.62%
40 365 357.00 8.0000 2.19%
41 399 366.17 32.8333 8.23%
42 361 378.50 17.5000 4.85%
43 380 379.50 0.5000 0.13%
44 394 377.67 16.3333 4.15%
45 368 374.67 6.6667 1.81%
46 359 377.83 18.8333 5.25%
47 374 376.83 2.8333 0.76%
48 418 372.67 45.3333 10.85%
49 429 382.17 46.8333 10.92%
50 448 390.33 57.6667 12.87%
51 420 399.33 20.6667 4.92%
52 442 408.00 34.0000 7.69%
53 457 421.83 35.1667 7.70%
54 477 435.67 41.3333 8.67%
55 443 445.50 2.5000 0.56%
56 410 447.83 37.8333 9.23%
57 399 441.50 42.5000 10.65%
58 424 438.00 14.0000 3.30%
59 468 435.00 33.0000 7.05%
60 480 436.83 43.1667 8.99%
61 437.33
62 437.33
63 437.33
ECM, MAPE = 1,072.19 7.81%
Semana Demanda
1 260
2 251
3 235
4 234
5 287
6 314
7 304
8 310
9 272
10 330
11 315
12 330
13 327
14 320
15 282
16 250
17 285
18 335 Pendiente = 1.48327
19 330 Corte eje a1 = 272.4762
20 290 Corte b1 = 325.8739
21 285
22 265
23 251
24 278
25 347
26 339
27 312
28 274
29 285
30 318
31 326
32 331
33 335
34 310
35 325
36 355 316.83 307.78
37 391 327.28 310.53 327.36 63.64 16.28%
38 412 339.21 314.57 346.77 65.23 15.83%
39 349 340.59 318.24 367.90 -18.90 5.41%
40 365 344.03 321.87 366.61 -1.61 0.44%
41 399 351.77 326.08 369.82 29.18 7.31%
42 361 353.07 329.89 381.68 -20.68 5.73%
43 380 356.87 333.69 380.07 -0.07 0.02%
44 394 362.10 337.69 383.85 10.15 2.58%
45 368 362.93 341.25 390.51 -22.51 6.12%
46 359 362.38 344.22 388.17 -29.17 8.13%
47 374 364.01 347.01 383.51 -9.51 2.54%
48 418 371.62 350.48 383.81 34.19 8.18%
 49 429 379.70 354.59 396.23 32.77 7.64%
50 448 389.32 359.49 408.93 39.07 8.72%
51 420 393.65 364.30 424.05 -4.05 0.97%
52 442 400.46 369.39 427.81 14.19 3.21%
53 457 408.42 374.89 436.62 20.38 4.46%
54 477 418.08 380.98 447.45 29.55 6.19%
55 443 421.59 386.70 461.28 -18.28 4.13%
56 410 419.96 391.39 462.21 -52.21 12.73%
57 399 417.01 394.99 453.22 -54.22 13.59%
58 424 417.99 398.23 442.63 -18.63 4.39%
59 468 425.04 402.01 440.99 27.01 5.77%
60 480 432.78 406.35 451.84 28.16 5.87%
61 1 463.55
62 2 467.89
63 3 472.22

alpha = 0.1409 ECM y MAPE = 1,026.70 6.51%

 Gráfico de demanda - Taller 2 - SED
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

Dema nda Pronóstico

Semana Demanda Semana Demanda
1 260 31 326
2 251 32 331
3 235 33 335
4 234 34 310
5 287 35 325
6 314 36 355
7 304 37 391
8 310 38 412
9 272 39 349
10 330 40 365
11 315 41 399
12 330 42 361
13 327 43 380
14 320 44 394
15 282 45 368
16 250 46 359
17 285 47 374
18 335 48 418
19 330 49 429
20 290 50 448
21 285 51 420
22 265 52 442
23 251 53 457
24 278 54 477
25 347 55 443
26 339 56 410
27 312 57 399
28 274 58 424
29 285 59 468
30 318 60 480