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Abstract 1. INTRODUCTION
Electricity Generation has been long With the advancement of technology and
considered as the major source for polluting increasing population on earth the demand for
earth’s atmosphere due to its considerable per capita energy has also been rising. At the
dependence on various fossil fuels. But it is same time the growth rate in generation and
not easy to replace fossil fuels as energy consumption of electric energy is anticipated as
sources: they are cheap, easy to transport, a leading factor in development of a nation or
have high energy density and have a ease of world as a whole. United States has been one
storage. Until 1970s and 1980s, satisfying of the leading nation in generation and
energy demand was basically dependent on consumption of electricity for most parts of the
available resources and technology. But now‐ last century. Even in 2009 the United States led
a‐days multiple concerns like environmental the world in electric nameplate installed
preservation for sustainable ecosystem, capacity i.e. 1,121 GW and overall net
effects of Greenhouse gases, rise in earth generation i.e. 3954 billion kWh. Though some
surface temperature and depleting fossil fuel of the developing nations of the world are
resources has led to look beyond available catching up at a faster pace, but still US has
technologies and find new reliable and cheap been dominant in the field.
alternatives in shortest possible time. The
future may be uncertain in the perfect mix of Fig 1. U.S.Electric Nameplate Capacity
energy and environment but the solution in (2009) :1,121 GW
Hydro Nuclear
Power
the form of renewable resources is at our 7%
9%
hand, it’s just how we utilize the best of it. The
Renewable Coal
paper tries to look at possible potential of Energy 30%
4.7% Other
various renewable resources and advantages 2%
and disadvantages of those, to predict division Natural
Gas
of various sources for electric generation in Petroleum 41%
6%
future for United States.
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Fig 2. U.S.Electric Net Generation
1. a. Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Emission
(2009) :3954 billion kWh
Electricity generation has been contributor to
Nuclear
20% three major greenhouse gases, namely carbon
Hydro
Power
dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and Nitrous
7% Coal oxides (NOx).
45%
Renewable
Energy Sources Green House gas emission
Energy
Natural CO2 SO2 NOx
3.6%
Gas g/kWh g/kWh g/kWh
Other
23% Coal 955 11.8 4.3
2%
Oil 818 14.2 4
Petroleum
Natural Gas 430
1%
Diesel 772 1.6 12.3
Small Hydro 9 0.03 0.07
Large Hydro 3.6‐11.6 0.009‐0.024 0.003‐0.006
But, along with these US has also been the Wind 7‐9.0 0.02‐0.09 0.02‐0.06
world leader in CO2 and other Greenhouse Gas Solar Photovoltaic 98‐167 0.2‐0.34 0.18‐0.30
Solar Thermal
emissions. It’s the second largest CO2 emitter in Electric 26‐38 0.13‐0.27 0.06‐0.13
Geothermal 7‐9.0 0.02 0.28
the world just after china and contributes to Fig4. Life Cycle emission from various energy sources
almost 20% of world’s total emissions. One of
the forefront reason for this is heavy Human activities have caused the atmospheric
dependence on fossil fuels for electricity concentration of carbon dioxide to increase by
generation which can be figured out from fig1 about 35% since the beginning of the age of
and fig2. Conventional Coal and Natural gas industrialization. In 2008, just from electricity
plants accounts for more than 67% of total generation in United States 2,477,213 Metric
electricity needs. But the concerned news is Tons of CO2, 7,830 Metric tons of SO2 and
that even EIA’s projections show similar 3,330 metric tons of NOx were emitted in the
statistics for fossil fuels in the year 2035. environment.
1. b. Environmental Changes on Earth
The report explicitly indicates the rise in global
average surface temperature and average sea
level since the beginning of industrialization.
Fig3. Electricity generation by fuel in 3 cases, 2008 and Human activity has increased the atmospheric
2035 concentration of greenhouse gases by 50%
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rrelative to pre‐industtrialization, with 70% % nextt 100 years.. The three scenarios has
h been
increase beetween 197 70 and 20 004. Energyy selected on the basis of technology growth,
s
supply, tran
nsport and industries has been n population grow wth, econom mic growth, resource
c
considered a the large
as est contribuutor to GHG
G basee and enviroonment.
e
emission.
GtCO2‐eq/yr
60
40 49
44.7
35.6 39.4
20 28.7
0
1970 1980 1990
1 2000
0 2004
FFig5. Global an
nnual emission
n of GHGs bettween 1970 to
o
2
2004
Fig7. Global tempperature rise over the nexxt century
N22O, F‐gases ,, undeer different sce
enarios
CH4, 7.9
90% 1.10%
14.30%
CO2 2 ALTERNA
2. ATIVE ENERGY RESOURCES
(deforest
ation), CO2 fossil
C Therre isn’t a single
s word or single sentence
s
17.30% f
fuel use, solu
ution to thee grieving problem off climate
C
CO2 56.60%
(o
other), channges and itts effect on
n life of peeople on
2.80% eartth. Though tthe use of teechnology w will play a
key role in looking for possible answerss. One of
FFig6. Share of different GHG
Gs in total em
mission in 2004
4
the best possible solution w which has been long
in
n term of eq‐CCO2
provven and found
f out to be reliable is
FFrom the futture prospecctive point o of view it hass dependence on o renewaable resources or
b
been estimaated that beetween 200 00 and 2030 0 alternative eneergy resourcces i.e. thee energy
C
CO2 emissioons will conttinue to gro
ow between n whicch comes from natural n reesources.
4 to 110%. It has been
40 n projected that for thee Renewable energy is charaacterized by the rate
n
next 2 decaades the waarming will continue to o at w
which new energy is arriving, which h in turns
r
rise at 0.2 de
egree C per d decade with h the currentt limitts the rate at which we ccan use the energy.
r
rate of fossil fuels consumption.
The various reenewable energy
e tech
hnologies
On the basis of 3 scenarios i.e. High Growth (A),,
O provven till date are:
M
Middle Course (B) and d ecologically driven(C))
e
estimation has been made forr the total
increase in the surface temperature over thee
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2. a. Hydroelectric Power
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o reduction of flow in the riverbed,
o loss of natural annual and diurnal
periodic flow variations,
o extension of the low flow periods,
o change in the water supply for riparian
areas,
o change in the temperature regime in
the diverted river reach,
o surge and sink effects in times of flood,
o increase in sedimentation,
o lower water quality,
o drop of numbers of species in flora and Fig10 Biopower Potential map of United States
fauna,
o decrease in spawning sites, A mixture of biomass and fossil fuels or burning
o Increase in algae growth. of methane, are used for electricity generation.
In the United States, the pulp and paper
Environmentalists also believe that in most industries are major producers of biopower,
cases the dams which are built for these using residues from paper production to
projects become reasons for major floods over produce electricity for industrial plant use.
longer duration of time than protecting the
region from floods. Other than these due to In US biopower approximates to 1.4% of total
migration of people from their native place and generation capacity and provide more
change of livelihood, there is considerable hue electricity than any other renewable resource
and cry against these and people around the except hydropower. If proposed climate
world have started considering large policies are adopted in the United States,
hydroelectric projects as non‐renewable biopower could surpass hydropower as the
sources of electric power generation. largest source of renewable electricity within
roughly a decade and expand to produce a
2. b. Biomass Energy projected 8 percent of total U.S. electricity in
During photosynthesis plants store solar 2030
energy, water from soil and CO2 from Bioenergy offers both opportunities and threat.
atmosphere. This energy stored as It could result in soil depletion and loss of
carbohydrate can be used and released either biodiversity. There is need of finance for much
by combustion or, by converting into biogas or larger R&D in the development of more
liquid fuels such as ethanol. sophisticated biopower technology. There is
Electricity can also be generated from biomass presently no cost for emission of CO2, if a cost
and is called biopower. It is most commonly of emissions is introduced, biopower would be
produced by burning of wood or other biomass more cost effective with traditional fossil fuel
feed stocks. technologies due to its net zero CO2 emissions.
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2. c. Geothermal Energy Direct use applications are usually less costly
than power generation, because the resource is
It is the energy generated from the heat stored
shallower.
in the earth core. Though it can be found
anywhere on the earth, but the energy that is 2. d. Wave and tidal energy
needed for electric generation is found in
Wave and tidal energy are form of solar energy.
relatively fewer places. It is a clean energy
Due to the temperature differences across the
source with emissions less than 2% of gases
ocean, the wind flows over the ocean surface
produced by fossil fuel power plants
giving rise to ripples and waves. Such waves
(UNFCCC1997).
travel thousands of km with virtually zero
United States has the highest installed energy loss. A wave carries both kinetic and
geothermal capacity i.e. 3086MW in the world gravitational potential energy. The total energy
and around 7057MW of new geothermal power depends on its height (H) and its period (T).
plant capacity is currently under development.
Thus, the wave power (P) is given as:
P =ρg2TH2/32π Watt/m
Where, ρ=density of seawater =1025 kg/m2
g=acceleration due to gravity =9.8m/s2
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2. e. Nuclear Power
Nuclear power is the energy produced with the
use of a controlled nuclear reaction. On the
basis of nuclear reaction the nuclear power is
divided into 2 categories:
a. Nuclear Fission
b. Nuclear Fusion
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2. f. Wind Energy
30
get transferred into earth surface.
25
20 2. g. Solar Energy
15
10 The rate of solar energy input on Earth’s
5 surface is 342 W/m2 while world primary
0 energy consumption is only 0.03 W/m2. The
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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Firstly, the photovoltaic (PV) cells, which can be
installed either on the roof top or in the
deserted place to convert sunlight directly into
electricity. Solar cells where initially used for
satellites and were too expensive for energy
production on earth. But with continual
improvement in technology and material cost
has dropped at about 5% annually since 1976.
Fig16. US Concentrating solar power potential
The major advantage of this system being the
security, power quality and reliability the PV Most of the Solar power plants are either in
systems give for emergency and well as base construction phase or planning phase these
load production. days, though presently US has only 539MW
(2008) of installed capacity of photovoltaic, but
it is believed to rise at a faster rate in recent
future. The government around most of the
states has issued tax benefits to bring the cost
of the solar generation and distribution and is
encouraging people towards installation of
rooftop solar cells for household and industrial
daily power requirements in future.
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3. Future capacity but there is not a single plant in
US.
From the analysis of various renewable
More economic investment in energy
resources we can see that complete
efficient technologies like smart grid,
dependence on any one form is not a possible
fuel cells and electric vehicle
solution. Rather there is no present renewable
More economic investment in nuclear
technology which can act as base load
fusion technology.
generation for the electric power system until
and unless we increase our dependence on Assumptions:
nuclear fission or develop nuclear fusion to
such a level. Both of these doesn’t look as Electric power requirement will rise at
possibilities over next decade and may be up to moderate value to be around 130% of
two decades due to various reasons earlier the present value.
discussed. Therefore it is very difficult to Hydropower industry will remain
completely eliminate fossil fuels in near future; constant at present generation capacity
rather they will keep playing a major role in our for next 10 years and will start
energy requirements at least for next 15‐20 decreasing after that due to ageing of
years. Our goal here is to look beyond these plants and will constitute around 5% of
years and try to achieve best possible mix the total generation.
within next 50 years and ultimately complete If better climate policies are adopted
independence from fossil fuels in 80‐90 years. biopower will become the highest
Let’s look at these models to predict the source of renewable power and
possible mix of energy with stated assumptions constitute around 7‐8% of total power.
and requirements. Geothermal won’t be able to produce
much effect in short period and will
3. a. Year 2030 raise maximum to 1% of total power
due to its high cost.
Requirements
Nuclear power with high potential and
Strong federal policies for support of higher risk will grow at slower pace to
renewable energy and provide various remain around the same potential of
benefits for utilities and customer in around 20% capacity.
more states. Wind power along with offshore
Formation a common national climate potential will grow considerable at
policy. higher rate (around 10GW per annum)
Develop new regulations for utilities and till 2016 (due to tax credit provided by
look for new business models. federal laws for 8 years) and will rise at
Tapping of the offshore wind and slower pace (around 2GW per annum)
generating power, which has a huge thereafter to constitute around 6.5% of
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total power requirement (assumed 3. b. Year 2050
capacity factor of 0.3).
Requirements & Assumptions
Solar will grow in 2 parts; firstly
household solar panels and secondly More stringent environmental policies
commercial panel and will play major and formation of worldwide climate
part in reduction of demand laws
requirement. With development of new Major integration of Nuclear power in
materials for storage of solar energy its the system
cost will come down and result up to Making the system more efficient and
0.5%. (at 20% annual growth and 0.4 100% reliable and educating customer
capacity factor) for best utilization of power
Distributed generation as the integral
Fig17. U.S.Electric Net Generation
part of the system
(2030) :approx 5200 billion kWh
Solar and Wind combination forms the
Nuclear
Hydropow
20% base load generation
er More efficient material technology for
5% Coal
40% solar panels and energy storage systems
Renewabl with longer lifetime.
e Energy
16% Similar growth rate for wind generation
Solar power generation with higher
Other Natural
2% Petroleum Gas growth rate
1% 17% Moves towards zero dependence on
25 fossil fuels by 2100
20 Fig18. U.S.Electric Net Generation
(2050) :approx 6300 billion kWh
Hydro
Nuclear
15 Solar 35%
Biopower Coal
10 25%
Geothermal
Wind
5 Natural
Hydro Gas
Power 4% 10%
Other
0 1%
Renewable
2009 2030
25%
Fig18 Comparison Renewable Power 2009 v/s 2030
(%age)
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n
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n
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