Unidad 3: Paso 3 - Modelar y simular sistemas industriales con base en teoría de colas

Entregado por:
Oscar Marino Lanchero
Cod. 94071582

Grupo:
212026_15

Director:
JOSE ENRIQUE COTES

Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia UNAD

Zona Centro Sur (Cead Palmira)
Ingeniaría Industrial
2019
ría de colas
Aleatorios
1025
1056
2265
903
1684
1714
152
2122
1382
2000
312
11
858
1752
2555
226
1606
1684
844
1183
1598
1813
2484
2396
2535
1416
2207
491
2102
230
1650
2496
876
441
2114
2254
5
2058
732
710
2352
244
934
1756
1818
2491
2583
1212
1958
1406
286
987
527
478
1811
927
1126
1013
1153
2335
2520
2171
223
454
242
836
1840
2537
1843
1368
2047
1953
977
636
1295
812
285
1417
2466
1854
367
1671
2425
761
2579
1460
739
645
1001
2324
824
571
651
1806
1796
2262
2134
796
658
1007
1880
2119
1332
2322
1622
695
2557
26
933
592
682
1529
621
1190
267
137
1794
1855
2591
2592
1589
843
855
626
325
1721
1858
1531
947
305
2267
140
933
796
1677
274
2420
712
823
2480
238
2527
1067
2488
787
2284
991
1780
850
2210
806
2482
742
335
1165
2098
1202
1744
691
2118
1629
2065
1220
391
1989
1708
412
1003
408
2302
152
257
460
517
2128
2261
1950
1671
305
1383
1341
1636
1992
2542
203
508
2151
1591
334
335
1168
2531
18
441
1773
793
2285
1119
245
229
553
478
37
2327
1284
950
1878
2041
2265
1453
434
118
205
2123
776
1149
1626
619
366
2187
1242
1034
677
179
1848
347
311
1218
750
1097
2426
1809
966
2019
2231
77
2240
138
844
720
1871
284
467
141
1677
639
355
1513
1659
933
864
850
732
936
458
1125
1002
1152
1530
499
1331
795
2231
1310
277
2529
1372
130
1143
1276
838
136
842
663
146
2600
2474
1640
978
1932
1995
208
1587
107
837
990
636
1709
1607
1086
1041
921
2508
2170
1940
1432
1623
412
1582
1793
591
1408
1596
1896
2404
1255
373
1923
2322
375
776
1521
2297
1964
 434
146
1134
1665
561
263
119
1085
2533
1945
1091
298
2194
1054
1657
2253
1910
2047
2299
2395
192
1302
964
2292
2552
2379
2587
267
2402
55
501
1247
1809
2497
1923
2421
1780
1969
1949
882
95
1693
919
1793
1482
1515
489
846
730
2252
2465
791
2398
1140
1876
1610
1254
1626
1859
1636
1770
2407
1833
1058
2031
2229
1791
1352
379
2553
1233
2294
1748
2235
221
644
1663
1823
1782
1099
653
2127
36
1241
2234
845
967
534
655
1331
2182
858
565
2123
729
2550
2565
155
1002
1862
2295
1317
2280
2214
4
1667
2362
2543
654
445
375
1722
1236
2277
2425
839
1573
2507
562
2340
1185
1896
261
1515
2373
2138
367
1198
1419
1914
1318
563
1094
212
1389
1484
1465
2008
2344
2557
42
2158
2310
2255
1356
10
945
1802
1198
1569
2304
1786
1378
1422
1735
1094
1501
1991
1248
1025
1725
2293
1086
605
1756
755
1531
67
303
1564
2250
648
521
1773
1119
426
1319
469
1854
2235
1880
982
2357
52
725
224
34
171
1053
107
1687
111
2455
422
1827
575
2019
2212
1246
628
916
2592
277
1979
1493
2084
1249
1285
1457
501
672
394
1127
2245
2202
891
2595
527
2008
1871
498
300
2224
1643
505
1058
1296
1183
262
1585
838
1360
1091
1626
2590
1512
773
757
2070
1233
378
1961
2532
2015
819
2526
492
2206
424
271
1367
1277
2281
1540
2156
993
288
1167
1442
1215
1348
733
1326
2099
2526
677
11
878
1570
583
1548
59
1262
248
1210
1617
333
1109
199
1804
1700
2100
536
1335
2127
1765
1630
270
582
187
2225
1246
238
123
2387
1337
1246
1118
2320
2442
2316
2535
1993
1907
377
1561
1682
1761
869
2486
2352
2389
1235
27
428
 789
656
2489
834
468
1710
577
753
2371
1935
1430
2055
1273
550
628
1527
312
456
2037
1097
458
885
2049
2090
913
1889
362
1424
2387
892
419
2100
1347
55
157
1966
2379
2140
927
1307
2347
2583
1559
2580
1420
 631
1801
2349
672
762
2035
1792
2569
1851
1256
1224
1915
442
1115
1303
420
2409
1484
2006
1746
1324
2513
2318
537
448
1277
1476
1185
908
346
1390
653
1607
1652
615
1990
147
739
1488
1896
2415
1199
1538
621
1624
1700
1653
2222
566
2462
2273
235
2597
736
1957
2007
581
1975
1248
1091
693
2172
2420
1486
318
1679
2080
2047
617
1921
1868
33
67
2355
343
1512
506
213
251
1066
2548
1560
1907
628
1605
994
1267
10
898
252
1928
198
339
2493
1575
1354
474
1985
770
393
1653
884
1929
2334
988
2325
774
1806
1927
1575
2058
551
1424
714
1183
2321
727
1313
2418
825
1039
475
2155
820
2133
1113
2083
1961
1247
1773
1211
943
423
1177
78
 739
1794
1178
2101
1691
1804
1364
680
862
1845
741
2078
961
2497
2508
1950
1340
618
385
1678
1702
2557
1547
1666
758
2582
630
795
1766
853
1916
413
734
2509
758
1522
756
2099
1425
1056
2042
2536
1942
181
1198
 64
1530
1902
291
2332
128
1822
1243
600
940
2055
1145
506
1522
2491
98
2334
1634
98
223
1361
195
214
1163
2538
533
1748
1119
1884
1711
2036
1110
1190
2287
2225
213
396
511
1971
2097
977
2262
133
2325
2066
1545
311
275
1263
1558
2144
1860
2469
450
1391
109
1158
8
2218
68
182
1091
151
1294
2525
165
2417
887
222
1708
785
425
1117
1404
2013
481
2054
1350
20
1634
2055
244
2507
1779
1718
1732
1415
1400
342
643
 331
2135
1811
1923
1163
2506
160
1337
1328
605
277
1578
2048
1542
1549
1988
1927
1412
2296
2534
567
1632
1139
1013
1575
912
1636
38
2520
926
486
722
2227
1203
2418
2300
706
891
1144
1313
246
928
680
917
1230
 785
511
1806
850
2446
2063
2482
310
1089
469
1141
Numero Aleatorio Distribucion Normal
2 0.0001056299
7 0.0001069251
9 0.0001074462
13 0.0001084938
19 0.0001100782
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-10311.1998959036 2230000
-10314.196760254 2235000
-10321.3619559616 2247000
-10323.1472732456 2250000
-10326.7107744654 2256000
-10327.3037693765 2257000
-10329.081178276 2260000
-10330.2648066718 2262000
-10332.0382875946 2265000
-10333.8094200538 2268000
-10334.988873393 2270000
-10335.5782102609 2271000
-10337.3446644028 2274000
-10339.1087886418 2277000
-10339.6963133603 2278000
-10340.8705891161 2280000
-10343.2160522336 2284000
-10343.8017759128 2285000
-10344.3872432016 2286000
-10345.5574095055 2288000
-10346.7265529366 2290000
-10347.3107416333 2291000
-10349.6449481595 2295000
-10351.3929335967 2298000
-10352.5569893708 2300000
-10355.4627041786 2305000
-10356.0430903886 2306000
-10358.3621200116 2310000
-10358.9412497024 2311000
-10361.2552641205 2315000
-10362.9881514283 2318000
-10366.4472050804 2324000
-10373.3385900128 2336000
-10378.4839265571 2345000
-10381.3339169813 2350000
-10385.3137286319 2357000
-10387.0157437078 2360000
-10389.2817332375 2364000
-10390.4132899886 2366000
-10392.6735355624 2370000
-10394.3662166573 2373000
-10395.4934817894 2375000
-10397.1826000943 2378000
-10398.3074950302 2380000
-10399.4314446762 2382000
-10401.1156001978 2385000
-10402.2371935549 2387000
-10403.3578471605 2389000
-10403.9178220483 2390000
-10406.1553800774 2394000
-10407.2727569177 2396000
-10408.389201056 2398000
-10409.5047140481 2400000
-10410.0621218494 2401000
-10410.6192974459 2402000
-10411.7329527975 2404000
-10412.8456816471 2406000
-10414.5130410984 2409000
-10416.1783245673 2412000
-10423.3706893656 2425000
-10423.9223495095 2426000
-10426.1267175404 2430000
-10427.2275406478 2432000
-10428.327458473 2434000
-10429.9756410598 2437000
-10431.0733021801 2439000
-10431.6217951138 2440000
-10433.8135203072 2444000
-10436.5481358581 2449000
-10437.0943886735 2450000
-10439.2771716957 2454000
-10439.8223112998 2455000
-10442.0006505435 2459000
-10442.5446814642 2460000
-10444.1754477706 2463000
-10445.8042281627 2466000
-10446.888980858 2468000
-10447.9728544992 2470000
-10449.5970198475 2473000
-10452.8394456779 2479000
-10455.5354756172 2484000
-10457.1504888945 2487000
-10459.3008109011 2491000
-10460.3746768761 2493000
-10460.9112867128 2494000
-10461.9838609483 2496000
-10464.1264324918 2500000
-10465.1964325488 2502000
-10466.7998293442 2505000
-10470.5336303733 2512000
-10472.662560389 2516000
-10474.7881071216 2520000
-10475.8496151138 2522000
-10476.9102813074 2524000
-10477.4402991467 2525000
-10478.4997051427 2527000
-10479.0290936317 2528000
-10480.0872424211 2530000
-10481.1445547291 2532000
-10482.2010318772 2534000
-10482.7289576784 2535000
-10484.311485964 2538000
-10484.8385795669 2539000
-10486.4186151907 2542000
-10487.4709362521 2544000
-10487.9967864653 2545000
-10488.5224300169 2546000
-10489.573097785 2548000
-10490.6229408531 2550000
-10491.6719605147 2552000
-10492.7201580605 2554000
-10493.7675347781 2556000
-10494.2909157278 2557000
-10495.8598308637 2560000
-10496.9047527919 2562000
-10497.9488590119 2564000
-10498.4706066292 2565000
-10499.5134916723 2567000
-10501.0762961345 2570000
-10502.6372766657 2573000
-10503.6769191587 2575000
-10504.7157541624 2577000
-10505.2348692475 2578000
-10506.2724953663 2580000
-10506.7910067122 2581000
-10507.8274267563 2583000
-10508.3453357657 2584000
-10509.3805525356 2586000
-10509.8978606063 2587000
-10510.9318768928 2589000
-10511.4485854177 2590000
-10511.9650944027 2591000
-10512.4814040018 2592000
-10513.513425658 2594000
-10514.0291380222 2595000
-10517.1192433628 2601000
 LIMITE INFERIOR 1000
LIMITE SUPERIOR 2000

Media 1337.5
Desviacion estandar 739.5233848

Numero Aleatorio
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2 4 8 94 4 0 8 6 3 2 7 8 2 4 7 0 1 6 6 2 0 8 5 4 0 0 4 6 9 2 3 8 8 4 3 0 7 6 2 2 6 8
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9

Distribucion Normal
0.0006000000

0.0005000000

0.0004000000

0.0003000000

0.0002000000

0.0001000000

0.0000000000
2 54 06 58 1 0 62 1 4 6 6 18 7 0 2 2 74 2 6 78 30 8 2 34 8 6 3 8 90
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9
0.0001000000

0.0000000000
2 54 06 58 1 0 62 1 4 6 6 18 7 0 2 2 74 2 6 78 30 8 2 34 8 6 3 8 90
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9

Distribucion Exponencial
0
2 48 9 4 4 0 8 6 3 2 7 8 2 4 7 0 1 6 6 2 0 8 5 4 0 0 4 6 9 2 3 8 8 4 3 0 7 6 2 2 6 8
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9
-2000

-4000

-6000

-8000

-10000

-12000

Distribucion Uniforme
3000000

2500000

2000000

1500000

1000000

500000

0
2 50 98 4 6 9 4 4 2 9 0 3 8 8 6 3 4 8 2 3 0 7 8 2 6 7 4 2 2 7 0 1 8 6 6 1 4 6 2
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9
Desarrollar el siguiente caso estableciendo una simulación en Excel:
Se desea simular la llegada y descarga de barcos en un muelle para determinar el número
promedio de barcos que se retrasan para ser descargados al siguiente día, los datos para
realizar la simulación son los siguientes:

Barcos que Barcos

llegan por Probabilidad descargado Probabilidad
día s por día
0 15% 1 7%
1 18% 2 13%
2 14% 3 45%
3 21% 4 22%
4 18% 5 13%
5 14%

Considerando un valor (Alfa = 0.10; y un error de 0,5 barcos.

Determine:
a.      Modelo de simulación de 30 días de operación incluyendo grafico de
estabilidad.
b.      Calculo del número de corridas necesarias para estabilizar la variable de
interés.
c.       Adecuar según el caso el modelo del punto A.

d.      Generar 10 corridas del modelo y calcular el intervalo de confianza.

e.      Establecer conclusiones y recomendaciones del caso.

Barcos que Probabilida Barcos que

DE A
llegan por día d llegan por día

0 15% - 0.15 0
1 18% 0.15 0.33 1
2 14% 0.33 0.47 2
3 21% 0.47 0.68 3
4 18% 0.68 0.86 4
5 14% 0.86 1.00 5
 Cantidad Barcos que Numero Barcos Total de
Numero
DIA Barcos dia llegan por Aleatorio descargados barcos a
Aleatorio
anterior día por día descargar

1 0 0.6204767636 3 0.2787789 3 3
2 0 0.224018398 1 0.82542507 4 1
3 0 0.5511039572 3 0.27898149 3 3
4 0 0.8435201782 4 0.48185493 3 4
5 1 0.2735436714 1 0.39754146 3 2
6 0 0.8921649601 5 0.11156791 2 5
7 3 0.914499913 5 0.90601553 5 8
8 3 0.7645065572 4 0.25955278 3 7
9 4 0.8026646433 4 0.17324385 2 8
10 6 0.8115826851 4 0.50628678 3 10
11 7 0.4034489576 2 0.29546821 3 9
12 6 0.2181421489 1 0.23056238 3 7
13 4 0.9718855411 5 0.47001765 3 9
14 6 0.0309067339 0 0.4115508 3 6
15 3 0.2548227643 1 0.59757231 3 4
16 1 0.5995333198 3 0.8083256 4 4
17 0 0.1013310864 0 0.94113725 5 0
18 0 0.5870670216 3 0.45974272 3 3
19 0 0.9989248602 5 0.4876491 3 5
20 2 0.3302685076 2 0.34132536 3 4
21 1 0.0564931568 0 0.68587385 4 1
22 0 0.4962730524 3 0.59286397 3 3
23 0 0.3869759168 2 0.75864986 4 2
24 0 0.7780787588 4 0.2128554 3 4
25 1 0.0138338162 0 0.65284872 4 1
26 0 0.5091428594 3 0.75029829 4 3
27 0 0.5331828382 3 0.74377392 4 3
28 0 0.4421167656 2 0.42138614 3 2
29 0 0.2333892502 1 0.04676383 1 1
30 0 0.1712308285 1 0.94366979 5 1
 Barcos Barcos
descargados Probabilidad DE A descargado
por día s por día
1 7% - 0.07 1
2 13% 0.07 0.20 2
3 45% 0.20 0.65 3
4 22% 0.65 0.87 4
5 13% 0.87 1.00 5

Promedio 1.60
Desviacion Est. 2.25
 Variable
Aleatoria de
Cantidad de Barcos "Barcos
barcos pendientes del pendientes
descargados siguiente dia del siguiente
dia"

3 0 0
1 0 0 Variable Aleatoria de "Barco
3 0 0 4
3 1 0
2 0 0 3

2 3 1 3
5 3 1
3 4 1 2

2 6 2 2
3 7 2
3 6 3 1

3 4 3
1
3 6 3
3 3 3 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
3 1 3
4 0 3
0 0 3
3 0 2
3 2 2
3 1 2
1 0 2
3 0 2
2 0 2
3 1 2
1 0 2
3 0 2
3 0 2
2 0 2
1 0 2
1 0 2
ariable Aleatoria de "Barcos pendientes del siguiente dia"

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
 Promedio 1.80
Desviacion Est. 0.96

Variable
Aleatoria de
"Barcos
pendientes del
siguiente dia"

0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Longitud de 36.87
Corrida
 Promedio 0.82 3.42 0.43 0.93 0.73
Desviacion Est. 0.58 0.58 0.25 0.38 0.41
# Corrida 1 Corrida 2 Corrida 3 Corrida 4 Corrida 5
1 0 1 0 0 0
2 0 3 0 0 0
3 0 3 0 1 0
4 0 4 1 1 0
5 0 3 1 0 0
6 0 3 1 0 0
7 0 4 1 1 0
8 1 4 1 1 1
9 1 4 1 1 1
10 1 4 1 2 1
11 1 4 1 1 1
12 1 4 1 1 1
13 1 4 1 1 1
14 1 4 1 1 1
15 1 3 0 1 1
16 1 3 0 1 1
17 1 3 0 1 1
18 1 4 0 1 1
19 1 4 0 1 1
20 1 4 0 1 1
21 1 4 0 1 1
22 1 4 0 1 1
23 1 4 0 1 1
24 2 4 0 1 1
25 2 3 0 1 1
26 2 3 0 1 1
27 2 3 0 1 1
28 2 3 0 1 1
29 2 3 0 1 1
30 2 3 0 1 1

Intervalos de confianza
Promedios
0.817664938
3.4172336291
0.431170232
0.9337164092
0.7313187674
1.2912640879
0.5456925849
4.4570318427
1.7543314321
1.2364273387

Intervalo de 1.70
confianza

Alfa 0.10
Confianza 95%
Promedio 1.56

1.33
Desviacion Est.
Promedios
0.817664938
3.4172336291
0.431170232
0.9337164092
0.7313187674
1.2912640879
0.5456925849
4.4570318427
1.7543314321
1.2364273387
 1.29 0.55 4.46 1.75 1.24
0.41 0.18 1.54 0.41 0.34
Corrida 6 Corrida 7 Corrida 8 Corrida 9 Corrida 10
1 0 0 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 7

1 1 2 1 1 6
2 1 3 1 2
2 0 4 2 1 5

2 0 5 2 1 4
2 0 5 2 1
2 1 5 2 1 3

2 1 5 2 1 2
2 1 6 2 1
1 0 6 2 1 1
2 0 6 2 1 0
1 0 6 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 0 6 2 1 Corri
Corri
1 0 6 2 1
1 1 6 2 1
1 1 6 2 1
1 1 5 2 1
1 1 5 2 1
1 1 5 2 1
1 1 5 2 1
1 1 5 2 1
1 1 4 2 1
1 1 4 2 1
1 1 4 2 1
1 1 4 2 2
1 1 4 2 2
1 1 4 2 2
1 1 4 2 2
1 1 3 2 2

de confianza
7

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Corri da 1 Corri da 2 Corri da 3 Corri da 4 Corrida 5
Corri da 6 Corri da 7 Corri da 8 Corri da 9 Corrida 10