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Journal of Psychiatric Research xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

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Journal of Psychiatric Research


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jpsychires

Changes in the global burden of depression from 1990 to 2017: Findings


from the Global Burden of Disease study

Qingqing Liua,b,1, Hairong Hea,1, Jin Yanga,b, Xiaojie Fenga,b, Fanfan Zhaoa,b, Jun Lyua,b,
a
Clinical Research Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
b
School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Objective: Depression is the most common mental illness worldwide. It has become an important public health
Depression problem. This study aimed to determine the global burden of depression and how it has changed between 1990
The global burden of disease and 2017.
Dysthymia Methods: We used information on depression obtained by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990
Major depressive disorder
to 2017. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used
to assess the global burden of depression.
Results: The number of incident cases of depression worldwide increased from 172 million in 1990 to 25,8
million in 2017, representing an increase of 49.86%. The ASR of depression varied widely between the 195
analyzed countries and regions in 2017, being highest in Lesotho (6.59 per 1000) and lowest in Myanmar (1.28
per 1000). The ASR increased the most between 1990 and 2017 in Belgium (EAPC = 0.88, 95% confidence
interval [CI] = 0.78 to 0.97), and decreased the most in Cuba (EAPC = −1.26, 95% CI = −1.36 to −1.14). The
ASR increased in regions with a high sociodemographic index, such as high-income North America
(EAPC = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.31 to 0.51), and decreased significantly in South Asia (EAPC = −0.63, 95%
CI = −0.85 to −0.41). The proportions of the population with major depressive disorder and dysthymia were
essentially stable both globally and in various countries, with a much larger proportion having major depressive
disorder.
Conclusion: Depression remains a major public health issue, and governments should support the research ne-
cessary to develop better prevention and treatment interventions.

1. Introduction worrying aspects is that adolescents with severe depression are 30 times
more likely to commit suicide (Stringaris, 2017). However, while de-
Depression is a common mental health disorder that can affect both pression is now one of the most important global health problems, its
the mental and physical health. The main symptoms of depression are a complex pathogenesis remains poorly understood, although it is known
lack of interest in usual life activities, insomnia, inability to enjoy life, that cultural, psychological, and biological factors contributed to de-
and even suicidal thoughts (Cui, 2015). Depression is nowadays a pression (Gross, 2014; Menard et al., 2016).
common chronic disease in most societies worldwide that can impair The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study provides specific data on
normal functioning, cause depressive thoughts, and adversely affect the multiple diseases in 195 countries and regions around the world, in-
quality of life. In addition, patients with major depressive disorder have cluding information about depression. The GBD database represents a
increased risks of developing cardiovascular disease and receiving poor wealth of information for understanding the incidence of depression
treatment, and increased morbidity and mortality (Luo et al., 2018; worldwide, and it divides depression into two major categories: dys-
Seligman and Nemeroff, 2015). It is estimated that more than 300 thymia and major depressive disorder. In this study we used the data on
million people in the world suffer from depression, which is listed by depression in the GBD database from 1990 to 2017 to analyze the
the World Health Organization (WHO) as the single largest factor temporal trends in the incidence of depression. Our findings will help to
contributing to global disability (Smith, 2014). One of the most- improve the understanding of the burden of depression worldwide and


Corresponding author. Clinical Research Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710061, People's Republic of China.
E-mail address: lujun2006@xjtu.edu.cn (J. Lyu).
1
These authors contributed equally to this work.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2019.08.002
Received 22 June 2019; Received in revised form 3 August 2019; Accepted 8 August 2019
0022-3956/ © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).

Please cite this article as: Qingqing Liu, et al., Journal of Psychiatric Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2019.08.002
Q. Liu, et al. Journal of Psychiatric Research xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

in developing effective prevention strategies. incident cases of depression worldwide increased from 172 million in
1990 to 25,8 milion in 2017, representing an increase of 49.86%. The
2. Methods increase was largest in Qatar (559.33%), followed by the United Arab
Emirates (511.76%) and Equatorial Guinea (221.87%) (Fig. 1B). The
2.1. Data source number of incident cases of depression decreased from 1990 to 2017 in
18 countries, by the most in Latvia (−30.99%), followed by Bosnia and
The data utilized in this study are available on the Global Health Herzegovina (−25.75%) and Georgia (−23.98%).
website (http://ghdx.healthdata.org). Each step used in this study to The increase in ASR across the 195 countries and regions was largest
analyze the GBD database was consistent with the Guidelines for in Belgium (EAPC = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78 to 0.97), followed by Guyana
Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting, which has been (EAPC = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.42 to 0.64) and South Korea (EAPC = 0.52,
described in detail previously (2016a; 2016b; 2016c; Stevens et al., 95% CI = 0.41 to 0.64) (Fig. 1C). The decrease in ASR was largest in
2016). The GBD database contains data on different diseases in 195 Cuba (EAPC = −1.26, 95% CI = −1.36 to −1.14), followed by Den-
countries and regions, and we extracted data on depression from 1990 mark (EAPC = −1.21, 95% CI = −1.37 to −1.04) and Estonia
to 2017. In order to describe the prevalence of depression from multiple (EAPC = −1.06, 95% CI = −1.18 to −0.94).
angles, we divided the world into five regions according to their so- Cluster analysis (Fig. S1) classified the ASR as (1) significantly in-
ciodemographic index (SDI): low, low-middle, middle, high-middle, creased in 29 countries, including Armenia, Belgium, and Iran; (2)
and high SDI. These 195 countries and regions were geographically slightly increased in 132 countries, including Afghanistan, Albania, and
divided into 21 areas, such as Andean Latin America, Central Europe, Australia; (3) remaining stable or slightly decreased in 25 countries,
and Southeast Asia. This study used these data to describe the pre- including Austria, Bahrain, and Bermuda; and (4) significant decreased
valence of dysthymia and major depressive disorder according to dif- in 9 countries, including Cuba, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Denmark.
ferent SDI regions and geographical locations. In GBD, depression is The number of people with depression increased in all five SDI re-
divided into two categories: dysthymia and major depressive disorder. gions between 1990 and 2017 (Fig. 2). However, the ASR decreased in
The study also described the prevalence of these two types of depres- the high-middle-SDI, low-SDI, low-middle-SDI, and middle-SDI regions,
sion in different countries and regions, different SDI regions, and geo- only increasing in the high-SDI region (Table 1). The number of people
graphical locations. with depression increased in all geographical regions (Fig. 3), by the
most in Central sub-Saharan Africa (124.56%), followed by Western
2.2. Statistical analysis sub-Saharan Africa (124.42%) and Oceania (107.19%). The ASR in-
creased significantly in high-income North America (EAPC = 0.41, 95%
The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) and estimated annual CI = 0.31 to 0.51) and decreased significantly in South Asia
percentage change (EAPC) were used to quantify the incidence trends of (EAPC = −0.63, 95% CI = −0.85 to–0.41) (Fig. 4, Table 1).
depression (Hankey et al., 2000). The age-standardized morbidity is the Fig. 4 shows the proportions of cases of dysthymia and major de-
morbidity after excluding the effects of age. The ASR of depression does pressive disorder worldwide in 1990 and 2017. The proportion of the
not reflect the actual incidence of depression, but is only used to population with the two types of depression remained essentially stable
compare the incidence of depression in different countries, different both globally and regionally, with a much larger proportion having
regions, or different historical periods in the same region, so as to fa- major depressive disorder.
cilitate data comparisons. If the age structures of the populations in two
regions are very different, comparing the incidence rates alone will not 3.2. Global burden of major depressive disorder
reveal whether a high incidence in a certain region is caused by the
difference in the age compositions or other influencing factors. It is The majority (93.7%) of patients with depression in 2017 had major
therefore necessary to standardize the incidence rate according to age. depressive disorder (Fig. 5). The ASR of major depressive disorder
The method used to calculate ASR has been reported previously (Liu varied widely among the 195 countries and regions in 2017, being
et al., 2019). highest in Lesotho (6.41 per 1000), followed by Morocco (6.13 per
EAPC is a summary and widely used measure of the ASR trend over 1000) and Greenland (6.01 per 1000) (Fig. S2), and lowest in Myanmar
a specific time interval. A regression line was fitted to the natural (1.06 per 1000), Indonesia (1.57 per 1000), and the Philippines (1.75
logarithm of the ASR values; that is, y = α + βx + ϵ, where y = ln per 1000). The number of incident cases of major depressive disorder
(ASR) and x = calendar year. The EAPC was calculated as 100 × (exp worldwide increased from 162 million in 1990 to 241 million in 2017,
(β) − 1), and its 95% confidence interval (CI) was obtained from a representing an increase of 49.29%. The increase was largest in Qatar
linear regression model (Liu et al., 2019). The ASR is considered to be (557.67%), followed by the United Arab Emirates (509.93%) and
(1) decreasing when the EAPC and the upper boundary of its 95% CI are Equatorial Guinea (221.51%) (Fig. S3, Table S3). The number of in-
both ≤0, (2) increasing when the EAPC and the lower boundary of its cident cases decreased from 1990 to 2017 in 20 countries, by the most
95% CI are ≥0, and (3) stable in all other cases. In addition, the ASR in Latvia (−31.49%), followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina (−26.65%)
values for the two types of depression were analyzed by hierarchical and Georgia (−23.69%).
cluster analysis, and the countries and regions were divided into four The increase in ASR across the 195 countries and regions was largest
states: significantly increased, slightly increased, remaining stable or in Belgium (EAPC = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.83 to 1.02), followed by South
slightly decreased, and significantly decreased. All statistical analyses Korea (EAPC = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.69) and Guyana
in this study were performed using R software. (EAPC = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.44 to 0.66) (Fig. S4). The decrease in the
ASR was largest in Cuba (EAPC = −1.31, 95% CI = −1.42 to −1.19),
3. Results followed by Denmark (EAPC = −1.29, 95% CI = −1.47 to −1.11) and
Estonia (EAPC = −1.12, 95% CI = −1.24 to −0.99).
3.1. Global burden of depression The number of cases of major depressive disorder in the five SDI
regions increased between 1990 and 2017. However, the ASR decreased
The ASR of depression in the 195 analyzed countries and regions in the high-middle-SDI, low-SDI, low-middle-SDI, and middle-SDI re-
varied widely in 2017 (Fig. 1A), being highest in Lesotho (6.59 per gions, only increasing in the high-SDI region (Fig. 2, Table S1). The
1000), followed by Morocco (6.31 per 1000) and Greenland (6.26 per number of cases of major depressive disorder increased in all geo-
1000), and lowest in Myanmar (1.28 per 1000), followed by Indonesia graphical regions (Fig. 3), by the most in Central sub-Saharan Africa
(1.79 per 1000) and the Philippines (1.97 per 1000). The number of (124.33%), followed by Western sub-Saharan Africa (124.11%) and

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Fig. 1. The global disease burden of depression for both sexes in 195 countries and territories. (A) The ASR of depression in 2017; (B) The relative change in incident
cases of depression between 1990 and 2017; (C) The EAPC of depression ASR from 1990 to 2017. ASR, age-standardized rate; EAPC, estimated annual percentage
change.

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Fig. 2. The depression cases caused by different types, by SDI regions, from 1990 to 2017. SDI, socio-demographic index.

Table 1
The incident cases and age-standardized incidence of depression in 1990 and 2017, and its temporal trends from 1990 to 2017.
Characteristics 1990 2017 1990–2017

Incident cases ASR per 1000 Incident cases ASR per 1000 EAPC

No. × 106 (95%UI) No.(95%UI) No. × 106 (95%UI) No.(95%UI) No.(95%UI)

Global 172.27 (157.81–189.31) 3.43 (3.16–3.77) 258.16 (238.28–281.67) 3.25 (3–3.54) −0.26 (−0.31 to −0.22)
Sex
Male 65.1 (59.58–71.43) 2.6 (2.4–2.85) 99.87 (92.07–108.9) 2.54 (2.34–2.76) −0.15 (−0.2 to −0.1)
Female 107.16 (98.23–117.69) 4.25 (3.91–4.66) 158.29 (146.19–172.75) 3.95 (3.64–4.31) −0.33 (−0.38 to −0.29)
Etiology
Depressive disorders 172.27 (157.81–189.31) 3.43 (3.16–3.77) 258.16 (238.28–281.67) 3.25 (3–3.54) −0.26 (−0.31 to −0.22)
Major depressive disorder 162.03 (147.45–178.81) 3.23 (2.96–3.55) 241.89 (222.03–265.57) 3.04 (2.8–3.34) 0.01 (−0.01 - 0.02)
Dythymia 10.23 (8.97–11.61) 0.2 (0.18–0.23) 16.27 (14.24–18.42) 0.2 (0.18–0.23) −0.28 (−0.33 to −0.23)
Socio-demographic index
High SDI 37.08 (34.51–40.25) 3.51 (3.26–3.81) 45.18 (42.01–48.88) 3.57 (3.3–3.89) 0.12 (0.1–0.15)
High-middle SDI 37.79 (34.58–41.53) 3.47 (3.18–3.79) 51.88 (47.53–56.74) 3.23 (2.97–3.53) −0.29 (−0.3 to −0.27)
Low SDI 21.04 (19.05–23.28) 4.03 (3.68–4.44) 40.01 (36.52–44.16) 3.82 (3.5–4.18) −0.32 (−0.44 to −0.2)
Low-middle SDI 33.66 (30.64–37.11) 3.99 (3.65–4.38) 57.55 (52.85–63.2) 3.73 (3.42–4.08) −0.39 (−0.52 to −0.25)
Middle SDI 41.99 (38.19–46.41) 3.01 (2.76–3.3) 62.61 (57.55–68.3) 2.78 (2.56–3.02) −0.36 (−0.4 to −0.33)
Region
Andean Latin America 0.84 (0.76–0.93) 2.62 (2.41–2.89) 1.53 (1.4–1.67) 2.56 (2.34–2.79) −0.18 (−0.2 to −0.15)
Australasia 0.94 (0.86–1.03) 4.38 (4–4.79) 1.27 (1.17–1.4) 4.31 (3.93–4.77) −0.07 (−0.16 - 0.02)
Caribbean 1.18 (1.08–1.3) 3.58 (3.29–3.9) 1.57 (1.43–1.71) 3.2 (2.93–3.49) −0.5 (−0.54 to −0.46)
Central Asia 1.75 (1.61–1.93) 2.91 (2.68–3.18) 2.47 (2.27–2.68) 2.81 (2.59–3.05) −0.16 (−0.19 to −0.13)
Central Europe 3.45 (3.19–3.76) 2.54 (2.34–2.77) 3.39 (3.13–3.67) 2.31 (2.13–2.51) −0.45 (−0.49 to −0.41)
Central Latin America 3.66 (3.31–4.04) 2.69 (2.46–2.96) 7.04 (6.46–7.7) 2.74 (2.52–3) 0 (−0.08 - 0.08)
Central Sub-Saharan Africa 1.92 (1.72–2.14) 4.64 (4.21–5.11) 4.3 (3.88–4.8) 4.52 (4.13–4.98) −0.12 (−0.14 to −0.11)
East Asia 37.65 (34.37–41.59) 3.08 (2.83–3.38) 48.27 (44.11–52.77) 2.62 (2.41–2.85) −0.58 (−0.66 to −0.5)
Eastern Europe 9.6 (8.67–10.71) 3.78 (3.42–4.21) 9.21 (8.29–10.27) 3.54 (3.2–3.94) −0.43 (−0.53 to −0.33)
Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa 5.91 (5.32–6.57) 4.43 (4.03–4.87) 12.06 (10.91–13.35) 4.19 (3.84–4.59) −0.26 (−0.31 to −0.21)
High-income Asia Pacific 5.4 (4.99–5.88) 2.84 (2.62–3.09) 6.73 (6.25–7.29) 3.14 (2.9–3.42) 0.38 (0.29–0.47)
High-income North America 11.91 (10.93–13.1) 4 (3.66–4.41) 16.16 (14.99–17.48) 4.32 (3.98–4.7) 0.41 (0.31–0.51)
North Africa and Middle East 12.54 (11.32–13.93) 4.4 (4–4.86) 25.74 (23.36–28.58) 4.36 (3.98–4.81) −0.07 (−0.1 to −0.03)
Oceania 0.14 (0.13–0.16) 2.6 (2.37–2.87) 0.29 (0.26–0.33) 2.61 (2.39–2.88) −0.01 (−0.03 - 0.02)
South Asia 36.1 (32.87–40.03) 4.05 (3.7–4.47) 61.19 (56.13–67.06) 3.66 (3.36–4) −0.63 (−0.85 to −0.41)
Southeast Asia 8.6 (7.78–9.53) 2.09 (1.9–2.29) 13.58 (12.43–14.87) 2 (1.84–2.19) −0.2 (−0.22 to −0.17)
Southern Latin America 1.71 (1.57–1.87) 3.48 (3.21–3.81) 2.34 (2.13–2.57) 3.38 (3.08–3.73) −0.17 (−0.2 to −0.14)
Southern Sub-Saharan Africa 1.71 (1.55–1.9) 3.97 (3.63–4.36) 2.83 (2.59–3.12) 3.91 (3.6–4.28) −0.06 (−0.1 to −0.03)
Tropical Latin America 5.29 (4.81–5.86) 3.85 (3.53–4.22) 8.03 (7.42–8.72) 3.44 (3.18–3.75) −0.47 (−0.95 - 0.01)
Western Europe 16.34 (15.28–17.6) 3.78 (3.52–4.08) 17.53 (16.19–19) 3.51 (3.23–3.84) −0.23 (−0.28 to −0.19)
Western Sub-Saharan Africa 5.62 (5.11–6.22) 4.05 (3.69–4.45) 12.62 (11.45–13.97) 4.02 (3.68–4.4) 0.11 (0.04–0.18)

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Fig. 3. The incident cases of depression at a regional level. The left column in each group is case data in 1990 and the right column in 2017.

Oceania (106.85%). The ASR increased significantly in high-income 3.3. Global burden of dysthymia
North America (EAPC = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.35 to 0.56) and decreased
significantly in South Asia (EAPC = −0.67, 95% CI = −0.90 to Only 6.3% of the patients with depression in 2017 had dysthymia in
−0.43) (Fig. 4, Table 1). 2017 (Fig. 5). The ASR of dysthymia varied widely among the 195
countries and regions in 2017, being highest in the United States (0.26
per 1000), followed by Canada (0.25 per 1000) and Greenland (0.25

Fig. 4. The EAPC of depression ASR from 1990 to 2017, both sexes, by region, and by types.

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Fig. 5. Contribution of major depressive disorder and dysthymia to absolute depression incident cases, both sexes, globally and by region, in 1990 and 2017.

per 1000) (Fig. S5), and lowest in Colombia (0.13 per 1000), followed treatment (Cerutti et al., 2016). People diagnosed with HIV/AIDS often
by Romania (0.15 per 1000) and Panama (0.15 per 1000). The number face social stigma and restrictions in employment and marriage, which
of incident cases of dysthymia worldwide increased from 10 million in in some cases leads to divorce and family exclusion (Ironson et al.,
1990 to 16 million in 2017, representing an increase of 58.98%. The 2017). People with HIV may experience depression for many reasons,
increase was largest in Qatar (601.91%), followed by the United Arab such as over concern about disease progression, pain, and death
Emirates (547.94%) and Bahrain (250.72%) (Fig. S6, Table S5). The (Junqueira et al., 2008). These characteristics of the situation in Le-
number of incident cases decreased from 1990 to 2017 in 11 countries, sotho mean that preventing AIDS could be a key measure to control
by the most in Georgia (−27.65%), followed by Latvia (−22.52%) and depression.
Lithuania (−15.44%). The ASR increased the most in Belgium, followed by Guyana and
The increase in ASR across the 195 countries and regions was largest South Korea. More research is needed to understand the causes of in-
in Iran (EAPC = 0.12, 95% CI = 0.06 to 0.21), followed by India creased ASR in depression in these countries. The country with the
(EAPC = 0.11, 95% CI = 0.09 to 0.13) and Portugal (EAPC = 0.11, largest reductions in ASR was Cuba, followed by Denmark and Estonia.
95% CI = 0.05 to 0.16) (Fig. S7). The decrease in ASR was largest in the The ASR increased significantly in the high-SDI region and high-income
United States (EAPC = −0.33, 95% CI = −0.43 to −0.24), followed North America (EAPC = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.31 to 0.51). The rapid in-
by Colombia (EAPC = −0.21, 95% CI = −0.25 to–0.16) and Singa- creases in the ASR of depression in these regions could be due to them
pore (EAPC = −0.21, 95% CI = −0.31 to −0.09). having high levels of economic development, education, and social
The number of dysthymia cases in the five SDI regions increased pressure. Studies have found that education can affect cognitive ability.
between 1990 and 2017. However, the ASR only increased in the high- It can affect depression in individuals and even in spouses (Lee, 2011).
middle-SDI, low-SDI, and low-middle-SDI regions, and decreased in the Social stress is also a recognized risk factor for depression (Smith,
high-SDI and middle-SDI regions (Fig. 2, Table S1). The number of 2014).
dysthymia cases increased in all geographical regions (Fig. 3), by the Our findings show that the proportions of both types of depression
most in Western sub-Saharan Africa (130.23%), followed by Central were essentially stable both globally and regionally, with a large pro-
sub-Saharan Africa (130.04%) and Eastern sub-Saharan Africa portion of patients having major depressive disorder. As the most
(117.02%). The ASR increased significantly in South Asia common cause of disability affecting nearly 16% of the global popu-
(EAPC = 0.09, 95% CI = 0.07 to 0.11) and decreased significantly in lation (Kessler et al., 2003), major depressive disorder is attracting in-
high-income North America (EAPC = −0.31, 95% CI = −0.39 to creasing attention. A WHO report predicted that major depressive dis-
−0.22) (Fig. 4, Table 1). order will become the leading cause of disability in the world by 2030
(Yang et al., 2015), and stated that controlling major depressive dis-
order is the best way to address depression. Regarding the ASR of
4. Discussion dysthymia, although this has decreased the most in the United States,
that country still had the highest ASR in 2017. This shows that the
Depression is a major public health problem and a major cause of United States should pay more attention to this problem and continue
disability (Ferrari et al., 2013). This study used data published in the to take measures aimed at controlling dysthymia. The ASR of dysthymia
GBD database to analyze the trends in depression from 1990 to 2017 decreased the most in the high-SDI region and high-income North
and the global burden of depression. The results of this study can be America, while the ASR of major depressive disorder increased the most
used by governments in all regions to develop appropriate preventive in these areas. This might be because some of the patients with dys-
measures for depression. thymia in these areas progressed to major depressive disorder.
This study found that the number of incident cases of depression This study identified that there are especially high rates of depres-
worldwide increased by 49.86% from 1990 to 2017. The ASR was sion in some countries and regions, indicating the importance of iden-
highest in Lesotho, which is a poor landlocked country surrounded by tifying the underlying reasons. Although the pathogenesis of depression
South Africa that has the third highest rate of HIV infection in the is unknown, some studies have identified risk factors for depression.
world, the highest rate of HIV transmission among the high-prevalence Depressed people have a genetic predisposition, with the risk of
countries of southern Africa, and the lowest coverage of antiretroviral

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Q. Liu, et al. Journal of Psychiatric Research xxx (xxxx) xxx–xxx

depression being significantly higher in relatives of depressed peo- doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychires.2019.08.002.


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Stevens, G.A., Alkema, L., Black, R.E., Boerma, J.T., Collins, G.S., Ezzati, M., Grove, J.T.,
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Appendix A. Supplementary data

Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://

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