Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: President to Visit U.S.,
Presidential Succession and the
China Factor
August 29, 2019

We read with great interest your interview answers in following article

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/article/vietnam-edges-towards-a-succession-
crisis/ and would like to ask for your assessment of the following three sets of issues:

Q1. Do you think General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong be healthy enough to go to
America this October? While there, is there a realistic chance he would flip the policy
towards China? If not, what will he and US President Donald Trump will talk about?
ANSWER: Vietnam has been tight lipped about the health of General Secretary and
President Nguyen Phu Trong since 14 May when he reappeared in public after his ill
health in April was finally confirmed by party officials. This month rumours circulated
that Trong would travel to Washington to meet President Trump. But neither side has
made any official announcement of a visit.
Secretary General Trong has also kept a low profile in the Vietnamese media with the
bulk of reports noting his role as party Secretary General in chairing regular meetings
of the Politburo and addressing the tenth plenum of Vietnam Communist Party Central
Committee in May. This past week Trong was reported to have received Malaysia’s
Prime Minister Mahathir and General Secretary of the Lao People’s. Revolutionary
Party, Bounnhang Volachith.
President Donald Trump met President Nguyen Phu Trong in Hanoi on 27 February
prior to the second U.S.-North Korean summit. At their meeting President Trump
invited President Trong to pay an official visit to the United States to discuss measures
to intensify their bilateral comprehensive partnership. This will be the center-piece of
discussion if the trip eventuates.
There are three likely possibilities: (1) the two presidents will agree to enlarge their
2013 comprehensive partnership, (2) the two presidents will announce negotiations
on raising bilateral relations to a strategic partnership and (3) the two presidents will
sign a joint statement on strategic partnership. Any one of these three possibilities will
signal that Vietnam will move to enhance its relations with the United States in
response to Chinese intimidation and bullying in the South China Sea in recent
months.
 2

Trade, investment and protection of intellectual property rights will figure

prominently in discussions, given Vietnam’s growing trade surplus with the U.S.
Finally, war legacy issues such as remediation of dioxin (Agent. Orange) poisoning at
Bien Hoa airfield will be discussed.
Q2. If Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong resigns from his post as the General Secretary, who of
the following people, Trần Quốc Vượng, Nguyễn Xuân Phúc and Nguyễn Thị Kim
Ngân, has the highest chance in becoming the next party chief, why and why not?
ANSWER: Who will be the next party Secretary General will be determined by whether
or not the posts of state president and party Secretary General are officially combined
or kept separate. Current regulations require candidates to the office of president to
have substantial experience in government affairs. This requirement would seemingly
rule out Trần Quốc Vượng whose career has been based within the Vietnam
Communist Party.
All three persons mentioned in your question will be over 65 if the thirteenth national
party congress meets on schedule in early 2021. Vượng will be the oldest at 68, while
both Nguyễn Xuân Phúc and Nguyễn Thị Kim Ngân will be 67. All three will have to
pass stringent medical tests to qualify and then be granted an exemption to the 65
years retirement age.
If the posts of party leader and state president are combined the choice would come
down to Phúc and Kim Ngân in my opinion. Nguyễn Phú Trọng became party
Secretary General after serving as Chair of the National Assembly. This precedent
would favour Kim Ngân; but she would be the first woman to hold this post. Phúc’s
track record as prime minister has been a competent one and Vietnam’s interests
are best served by keeping him in that post, in my opinion.
Q3. After more than a month of tension in the South China Sea, the Haiyang Dizhi 8
vessel first entered just moved closer to within 185km of Vietnamese coast. Do you
think this will help push Vietnam closer to the US?
ANSWER: According to diplomatic sources in Hanoi, the United States suggested to
Vietnam this year that they raise bilateral relations from a comprehensive to a
strategic partnership. At the same time, U.S. defence officials have requested
Vietnam’s agreement on an annual visit by a nuclear-powered U.S. Navy aircraft
carrier. Both initiatives were broached before China deployed the Haiyang Dizhi 8 to
waters around Vanguard Bank inside Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone. The United
States has repeatedly issued strongly worded statements condemning China’s bullying
and interference with Vietnam’s long-standing oil exploration activities. If Secretary
General Trong visits The White House and meets with President Trump in October,
the timing will be fortuitous for both sides to step up cooperation in maritime security.

Media Identification: Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of

New South Wales, Canberra or Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of
New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: President to Visit U.S., Presidential
Secession and the China Factor,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 29,
2019. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.