Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

South China Sea: Haiyang Dizhi
8 Withdraws from Vanguard
Bank
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 8, 2019*

As you may know, China's survey vessel Haiyang Dizhi 8 has left Vietnam's Exclusive
Economic Zone (but some China Coast Guard vessels have remained near Vanguard
Bank). Our sources report that the Haiyang 8 is still in the Spratly Islands.
We request an updated assessment on the developments related to Vanguard Bank.
ANSWER: On Wednesday, 7 August London-based Winward Maritime Analytics
System released data indicating that the China Geological Survey ship Haiyang Dizhi 8
left Vanguard Bank in Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and sailed to Fiery
Cross Reef. This development was reported by Devin Thorne, senior analyst at the
Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS), in an interview with Reuters. Tracking
data indicated that the Haiyang Dizhi 8 was followed by Vietnam Coast Guard ships
but that two China Coast Guard ships remained on station in Vietnam’s EEZ.
It should be recalled that in 2014 China withdrew the Hai Yang Shi You 981 from
Vietnam’s EEZ after announcing it had completed its mission and due to weather
conditions. The departure of the Haiyang Dizhi 8 from Vanguard Bank may indicate
that the present standoff has come to an end. However, as of this writing, there has
been no announcement by China Geological Survey or China’s Ministry of Foreign
Affairs about the Haiyang Dizhi 8. Also, there is no indication yet that the Haiyang
Dizhi 8 will not return.
My assessment is that China likely believes it has achieved its aims of demonstrating
sovereign rights over the exploration blocks within its nine-dash line (but overlapping
with Vietnam’s EEZ) by conducting a seismic survey and by challenging oil exploration
by Rosneft Vietnam in block 06/1.
China has put Vietnam on notice that it will not tolerate oil exploration in waters
encompassed by it nine-dash line either unilaterally by a littoral state or by a foreign
oil company.
China’s actions in withdrawing the Haiyang Dizhi 8 also may have been in response to
criticism by the United States, Japan, Australia, EU and other members of the
international community. For example, the joint statement issued after the 52nd
annual meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers (AMM) contained stronger wording than
previous joint statements over recent years.
 2

The joint statement issued after the 51st AMM in July 2018 stated, “We discussed the
matters relating to the South China Sea and took note of some concerns on the land
reclamation and activities in the area, which have eroded trust and confidence,
increased tensions and may undermine peace, security and stability in the region.”
This year’s 52nd AMM joint statement was stronger. It read: “We discussed the
situation in the South China Sea, during which concerns were expressed by some
Ministers on the land reclamations, activities and serious incidents in the area, which
have eroded peace, security and stability in the region (emphasis added).” In other
words, it was made clear the concerns were expressed by the foreign ministers of
more than one ASEAN member about serious incidents.
To use an English language expression, China’s recent illegal actions at Vanguard Bank,
Malaysia’s Luconia Shoal and the Philippine’s Thitu (Pag-aga) island have shown the
“steel hand in the velvet glove.” China will now likely pivot and focus on the next
meeting of ASEAN-China Senior Officials to discuss the South China Sea Code of
Conduct Single Draft Negotiating Text scheduled for October.
Although ASEAN and China have agreed in principle to complete the COC on a
“mutually agreed timetable,” China has unilaterally declared that it will take three
years to complete negotiations on the COC.
China can now analyse in great detail the responses by Vietnam, Malaysia, the
Philippines and ASEAN to its recent act of intimidation and plan for the next time it
needs to show its “steel hand.”
*[Update 14 August: Reuters reported that the Haiyang Dizhi 1 returned to Vietnam’s
EEZ on 13 August. China’s leaders are now meeting for their summer retreat at
Beidaihe for a two-week conference (circa 3-17 August). Three major issues are likely
to dominate – (1) growing unrest in Hong Kong (2) how to respond to President
Trump’s announcement on 13 August that he was imposing 10% tariffs on Chinese
goods on 1 September (since extended to 15 December) and (3) pushbacks by Vietnam
and the Philippines over China’s intrusion into their Exclusive Economic Zone and
continental shelf.

Media Identification: The University of New South Wales, Canberra or The University
of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “South China Sea: Haiyang Dizhi 9 Withdraws
from Vanguard Bank,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 8, 2019. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
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