North Korea: A Month in Review

An analytic look at the main developments

of the June 1 and June 30 period

By NK Pro Staff Analysts

Non-member preview edition | Contact chad.ocarroll@nknews.org to learn how to obtain the full PDF
11
 North Korea: A Month in Review & What’s Ahead
An analytic look at the main developments of the June 1 and June 30 period

By NK Pro Staff Analysts

NK Pro has conducted an in-depth analytic review of news on the peninsula for the period between June 1
and June 30.

In addition to an Executive Summary providing top-line findings, the following review includes detailed analysis
on a wide range of other specialist focus areas.

Furthermore, it also includes a look ahead at the five events most likely to create news in July.

Please send any feedback about this feature to chad.ocarroll@nknews.org

Published by Korea Risk Group, the world’s premier resource for analysis, research
tools and data on North Korea (www.korearisk.com)

Non-member preview edition | Contact chad.ocarroll@nknews.org to learn how to obtain the full PDF
22
 Contents

04 Executive Summary

Foreign Relations: Surprise third U.S. - DPRK summit held

07
at DMZ, Xi Jinping visits Pyongyang

Sanctions: U.S. continues efforts to halt DPRK sanctions

11
evasions, 56 countries involved in violations

Human Security / Human Rights: Foreign arrests in

14
Pyongyang, Vietnam and Russia provide food aid to DPRK

Inter-Korean: North-South relations remain at impasse,

17
though experience sudden opportunities for engagement

WMD: Activity seen at nuclear and space-related sites,

20
one-third of Americans support nuclear attack

Leadership: Starting the month with militant tone, ending on

23
a positive note with diplomacy

Economy: Significant increases in Chinese trade and

26
tourism, rice prices up

Military : U.S.-ROK cancel military drills, but DPRK

30
remains critical

33 DPRK State Media: New and notable

34 The Month Ahead: What to expect

Non-member preview edition | Contact chad.ocarroll@nknews.org to learn how to obtain the full PDF
33
 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

An early summer evening in Pyongyang | Picture: NK Pro

FOREIGN RELATIONS: SURPRISE THIRD U.S.-DPRK SUMMIT HELD AT DMZ

Section by Caroline Kearney and Chad O’Carroll
After four months of suspended talks, U.S. President Donald Trump and DPRK leader Kim Jong Un held an
impromptu summit at Panmunjom on June 30. The 50-minute meeting led to the two leaders agreeing to restart
working-level negotiations, with Trump even inviting Kim to visit the White House. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
estimated that working-level talks would restart as soon as July, and announced that U.S. Special Representative
for North Korea, Stephen Biegun, would lead negotiations.

RISK: Aware there is limited time before Trump must begin his re-election campaign, both Washington and
Pyongyang are now likely to be more flexible in their negotiations to reach a consensus. The Trump administration,
given flaring problems in Iran and due to the lack of other foreign policy successes, may be more compelled than
ever to seek a short-term deal of some sort that can support him on the forthcoming campaign trail. As for the
DPRK side, the combination of a looming UNSC December deadline for overseas workers to be sent home and
growing friction caused by wide-ranging sector-level sanctions are likely to compel Pyongyang to expand its
Hanoi offer in order to mitigate sanctions quickly. Thus while time is already running short, there appears to be
significant motivation for both sides to seek to reach an agreement. This is because a third failure – which cannot
be ruled out – would prove deeply problematic for both leaders at this stage.

SANCTIONS: U.S. CONTINUES EFFORTS TO HALT DPRK SANCTIONS EVASIONS

Section by Caroline Kearney and Chad O’Carroll
The U.S. takes steps to maintain sanctions on North Korea - Several U.S. government agencies took steps in
June to better enforce the DPRK sanctions regime. The State Department announced that the program, Rewards
for Justice, will now offer up individuals around the world payments of up to $5 million in exchange for information
on a range of North Korea’s sanctions evasion efforts. Separately, on June 19, the U.S. Treasury Department
designated a bank called the Russian Financial Society for providing financial services to North Korea, according

Non-member preview edition | Contact chad.ocarroll@nknews.org to learn how to obtain the full PDF
44
 Executive Summary

to a press release. And on June 21, Trump extended a U.S. national emergency for one year based on “the existence
and risk of proliferation of weapons-usable fissile material”.

RISK: Efforts by multiple U.S. departments to maintain pressure on entities violating U.S. Treasury Department
& UNSC sanctions in the past month demonstrates that American enforcement efforts are likely to continue to
expand during times when denuclearization diplomacy remains at an impasse. But given the prospect of working-
level talks resuming in the wake of Trump and Kim’s sudden summit, it is probable that the White House may
now seek to give room for emerging negotiations by refraining from major new sanctions announcements in the
weeks ahead.

HUMAN SECURITY / HUMAN RIGHTS: FOREIGNER ARRESTS IN PYONGYANG

Section by Caroline Kearney and Chad O’Carroll
Australia’s foreign ministry said on June 26 it was “urgently seeking clarification” about media reports that one of
its nationals has been detained in Pyongyang. Multiple media reports named Alek Sigley, a student in Pyongyang
since 2018 and DPRK tour operator since 2013, as the detainee. No information has been provided yet for the
reason he has been detained or the alleged offense. On the same day, Japanese media reported that Kim Jong
Un’s former sushi chef, Kenji Fujimoto, was also missing and could have been detained by DPRK authorities. No
further information about Fujimoto’s case has emerged in state media and his case has not been corroborated
yet by the government of Japan.

RISK: Given the strong prospect of a prompt renewal of working-level U.S.-DPRK talks in July, and as a result
of the fact neither cases have yet to be revealed by official state media, there is a relatively low chance that
either individual will face serious jail-time. But if the detentions do prevail for a long-time, and simultaneously to
the outbreak of sustained and serious U.S.-DPRK dialogue, this could be an indicator to support recent analysis
suggesting there may be a hardline contingent in Pyongyang that is opposed to relaxing tensions with the West.

INTER-KOREAN: NORTH-SOUTH RELATIONS REMAIN AT IMPASSE, THOUGH EXPERIENCE

SUDDEN OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENGAGEMENT
Section by Caroline Kearney and Chad O’Carroll
Long-stalled inter-Korean relations had two small breakthroughs in the past month, primarily a surprise U.S. -
DPRK summit and Kim Yo Jong’s earlier visit to the JSA, but for the most part North Korea either ignored or openly
complained about South Korea’s efforts. While it seems likely that the DPRK will be preoccupied with working-
level talks with the U.S. in July, the sudden involvement of President Moon in the Trump-Kim meeting of June 30
may eventually restore Pyongyang’s faith in his possible role as a mediator.

WMD: ACTIVITY SEEN AT NUCLEAR AND SPACE-RELATED SITES

Section by Caroline Kearney and Chad O’Carroll
During the month of June, NK Pro and 38 North monitored changes at multiple WMD or space-related facilities.
Such developments are significant because they demonstrate that, while the DPRK has halted nuclear and both
IRBM and ICBM missile tests since November 2017, aspects of their WMD programs continue to be evolving in
other areas.

LEADERSHIP: STARTING THE MONTH WITH MILITANT TONE, ENDING ON A POSITIVE

NOTE WITH DIPLOMACY
Section by Minyoung Lee
Kim Jong Un made 20 public appearances in the last month, kicking off June with a series of visits to factories
widely known as munitions production facilities. He ended the month with a high-profile summit with Chinese
President Xi in Pyongyang and another with the U.S. President at Panmunjom. State media reporting on those
summits appeared to confirm that the foreign ministry will be leading the DPRK-U.S. nuclear negotiations from
the DPRK side, and that Ri likely will be North Korea’s chief negotiator and Pompeo’s counterpart. Kim Yo Jong
also reappeared in public during this period following an extended absence, though reports that she has been
promoted are yet to verified.

Non-member preview edition | Contact chad.ocarroll@nknews.org to learn how to obtain the full PDF
55
 Executive Summary

ECONOMY: SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN CHINESE TRADE AND TOURISM, RICE PRICE UP

Section by Caroline Kearney and Chad O’Carroll
This month witnessed increases in Chinese tourism and exports to North Korea, while Pyongyang focused
on advancing domestic high-tech product development. Meanwhile, unofficial market prices for rice sharply
increased, but for other commodities otherwise remained mostly stable.

MILITARY: U.S.-ROK CANCEL MILITARY DRILLS, DPRK REMAINS CRITICAL

Section by Caroline Kearney
June saw the U.S. and ROK canceling the “Freedom Guardian” military drill for the second year in a row and a U.S.
Congressional report noting progress in the DPRK’s short-range missile program. Meanwhile, Canada’s military
deployed vessels and aircraft to support a multinational effort to monitor illicit ship-to-ship transfers by North
Korea.

Non-member preview edition | Contact chad.ocarroll@nknews.org to learn how to obtain the full PDF
66
 THE MONTH AHEAD:
WHAT TO EXPECT
Section by Caroline Kearney

Barbed-wire fences en route to Kaesong in North Korea | Picture: NK Pro

Looking ahead at the month of July, the following events are likely to lead North Korea headlines:

1. U.S.-DPRK According to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s estimation following the
working-level impromptu summit on June 30 between Kim and Trump, working-level negotiations
negotiations to between Washington and Pyongyang could restart as early as mid-July. Though a
location has not yet been publicly determined, precedence suggests the two sides
restart
may visit each other’s capitals. Alternatively, a third-country capital might be picked,
as was the case with negotiations led by Choe Son-hui and Stephen Biegun in Sweden
earlier this year.

2. News on fate of The manner in which DPRK authorities have dealt with foreign prisoners historically
detainee(s) means information about the fate of Australian national Alek Sigley and Japanese
citizen Kenji Fujimoto is likely to emerge in July. North Korea’s Ministry of State Security
(MSS) typically investigates detainees for a period ranging between several days to
two or three weeks, after which expulsion from the country takes place or charges
are formally raised. In either outcome, information is extremely likely to emerge in the
open source.

3. Key DPRK dates July includes a number of important dates on the North Korean calendar which are
likely to result in news emerging.
to watch for
a. The 25th anniversary of founding leader Kim Il Sung’s death will take place on
July 8, an event usually accompanied by a Kim Jong Un visit to the Kumsusan
Palace of the Sun.

Non-member preview edition | Contact chad.ocarroll@nknews.org to learn how to obtain the full PDF
77
 Month Ahead: What To Expect

3. Key DPRK b. Elections for deputies to provincial (municipality), city (district) and county
people’s assemblies will take place in the DPRK on July 21. The election follows
dates to watch for one held for the Supreme People’s Assembly on March 10.
(Continued)
c. On July 27, the DPRK will hold commemoration ceremonies to mark the
anniversary of the Korean Armistice Agreement, the ceasefire that has paused
the Korean War since 1953. As U.S.-DPRK working-level negotiations are
expected to have re-launched by then, there will likely be minimal anti-American
rhetoric in media coverage of the events, which will mark the 66th anniversary.

4. Secondary The U.S. House of Representatives is likely to consider an amendment to the

annual defense policy bill, similar to that which passed the Senate on June 27.
financial sanctions The amendment aims to “impose secondary sanctions on financial entities doing
may be considered business with North Korea,” which are likely to especially target Chinese banks.
by U.S. House However, given the unexpected Trump-Kim meeting on June 30, it is possible that
sponsors of the bill may hold off from pushing it forward for the time being.

5. South Korea Seoul said on July 2 that it hopes to send the first shipment of rice aid to North
Korea within the month, but that it would need to consult with the U.S. on sanctions
to begin rice aid exemptions to conduct any initial transfer. Seoul is considering both overland and
delivery to North sea routes to deliver the 50,000 metric tons of South Korean-produced rice, the WFP
said in June, with the sea route thought to be more effective due to the scale of
grains being sent. The precedence of South Korea’s failed efforts to send a Tamiflu
donation to the North earlier this year suggests, however, that the deliveries might
not necessarily make it according to Seoul’s preferred schedule.

Non-member preview edition | Contact chad.ocarroll@nknews.org to learn how to obtain the full PDF
88
 North Korea: A Month in Review
An analytic look at the main developments
of the June 1 and June 30 period

By NK Pro Staff Analysts

Please send any feedback about this new feature to
chad.ocarroll@nknews.org

Non-member preview edition | Contact chad.ocarroll@nknews.org to learn how to obtain the full PDF
99