Está en la página 1de 74

FLUJOS DE CAJA DEL INVERSIONISTA

FCNI 1 FCNI 2
FLUJO OPTIMISTA -38,329 -26,328
BASE -34,845 -23,934
FLUJO PESIMISTA -29,618 -20,344

Probabilidades
FLUJO OPTIMISTA 20.00%
BASE 70.00%
FLUJO PESIMISTA 10.00%

ESPERADOS
1 -35,019
2 -24,054
3 -12,941
4 262,500
5 -223,132
6 281,028
7 290,894
8 301,184
9 311,916
10 450,231

ESPERADO DEL VPN 135,508.15 miles de soles

Desviaciones estándar
1 2,265
2 1,556
3 837
4 16,978
5 14,431
6 18,176
7 18,814
8 19,480
9 20,174
10 29,119

FLUJOS PERFECTAMENTE CORRELACIONADOS

Desviación del VPN 51,159

PROBABILIDAD QUE EL PROYECTO SEA RENTABLE


VALOR DE Z PROBABILIDAD
VPN>0 -2.65 0.40%
VPN<0 2.65 99.60%
FCNI 3 FCNI 4 FCNI 5 FCNI 6
-14,164 287,313 -244,225 307,593
-12,877 261,194 -222,022 279,630
-10,945 222,015 -188,719 237,685

INVERSION -603,957
COK 16.25%
Sea rentable.
No sea rentable.
FCNI 7 FCNI 8 FCNI 9 FCNI 10
318,391 329,654 341,401 492,790
289,447 299,685 310,365 447,991
246,030 254,733 263,810 380,792
FLUJOS DE CAJA DEL INVERSIONISTA

FCNI 1 FCNI 2
FLUJO OPTIMISTA 76,128 92,028
BASE 69,207 83,662
FLUJO PESIMISTA 58,826 71,113

Probabilidades
FLUJO OPTIMISTA 20.00%
BASE 70.00%
FLUJO PESIMISTA 10.00%

ESPERADOS
1 69,553
2 84,080
3 99,028
4 372,532
5 -108,369
6 400,726
7 415,739
8 431,398
9 447,729
10 635,290

ESPERADO DEL VPN -427,237.29 miles de soles

Desviaciones estándar
1 4,498
2 5,438
3 6,405
4 24,094
5 7,009
6 25,918
7 26,889
8 27,901
9 123,273
10 41,088

FLUJOS PERFECTAMENTE CORRELACIONADOS

Desviación del VPN 97,627

PROBABILIDAD QUE EL PROYECTO SEA RENTABLE


VALOR DE Z PROBABILIDAD
VPN>0 4.38 100.00%
VPN<0 -4.38 0.00%
FCNI 3 FCNI 4 FCNI 5 FCNI 6
108,389 407,746 -118,613 438,606
98,536 370,678 -107,830 398,733
83,755 315,077 -91,655 338,923

INVERSION -603,957
COK 16.25%
Sea rentable.
No sea rentable.
FCNI 7 FCNI 8 FCNI 9 FCNI 10
455,038 472,177 490,052 695,342
413,671 429,251 445,502 632,129
351,620 364,864 378,677 537,310
Estado Financiero Anual Consolidado del Año 2018 (En miles
de nuevos soles)

CONSORCIO CEMENTERO DEL SUR S.A. Y SUBSIDIARIAS

ESTADO DE SITUACION FINANCIERA / STATEMENT OF 12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018


FINANCIAL POSITION
1DT001 Activos/
1DT004 Activos Corrientes/
Efectivo y
1D0109 Equivalentes al 241,568 220,949 170,684
Efectivo/
Otros Activos
1D0114 Cuentas por 374,613 154,040 0
Financieros/
Cobrar
1D0121 Comerciales y 289,623 431,855 424,028
Cuentas por
Otras Cuentas
1D0103 Cobrar
por Cobrar/
Cuentas por 190,366 263,217 250,307
Comerciales/
Cobrar a
1D0104 25,718 35,588 46,233
Entidades
Otras Cuentas
Relacionadas/
1D0105 66,633 133,050 127,488
por Cobrar/
1D0107 Anticipos/ 6,906 0 0
1D0106 Inventarios/ 664,270 585,540 655,395
Activos
1D0112 0 0 0
Biológicos/
Activos por
1D0117 Impuestos a las 14,160 0 0
Ganancias/
Otros Activos no
1D0113 0 10,782 9,789
Financieros/
Activos para su Disposición
1D0119 Clasificados como Mantenidos para

Activos no Corrientes o Grupos


Activos no de
Activos para su Disposición
Corrientes o
1D0120
Clasificados como Mantenidos
Grupos de para
Distribuir a los Propietarios/
Activos para su
Disposición
Clasificados
1D0115 0 0 51
como
1D01ST Mantenidos para
Total Activos Corrientes/ 1,584,234 1,403,166 1,259,947
la Venta o como
1DT005 Mantenidos para
Activos No Corrientes/
Distribuir a los
Otros Activos
Propietarios/
Inversiones
1D0217 268,800 87,473 0
Financieros/
Contabilizadas
1D0214 Cuentas
Aplicando por
el 0 0 26,717
Cobrar
Método de la
1D0219 Comerciales
Participación/y 265,300 202,409 210,529
Cuentas por
Otras Cuentas
1D0201 Cobrar
por Cobrar/
Cuentas por 0 0 0
Comerciales/
Cobrar a
1D0202 31,685 14,897 15,107
Entidades
Otras Cuentas
Relacionadas/
1D0203 233,615 187,512 195,422
por Cobrar/
1D0220 Anticipos/ 0 0 0
1D0222 Inventarios/ 0 0 0
Activos
1D0216 0 0 0
Biológicos/

Propiedades,
1D0205 3,549,048 3,877,669 4,269,835
Planta y Equipo/

Activos
Intangibles
1D0206 888,336 868,339 928,979
Distintos de la
Plusvalía/

Activos por
1D0207 Impuestos 31,327 33,185 101,186
Diferidos/
Activos por
Impuestos
1D0223 0 0 0
Corrientes, no
Corrientes/
<="" th=""
1D0212 Plusvalía/ style="color 472,114 458,041 496,014
ActivosActivos
Otros no no <="" th=""
: rgb(255,
1D0208 Corrientes style="color 6,663 9,509 2,557
Financieros/ 255, 255);
Distintos al
1D0224 Efectivo :font-size:
rgb(255, 0 0 0
Pignorados como 255, 255);
11px;
1D02ST Garantía
Total Activos No Corrientes/
Colateral/
font-size:
padding:
5,504,884 5,635,801 6,141,889

1D020T TOTAL ACTIVOS/ 5px11px;


6px; 7,089,118 7,038,967 7,401,836
padding:
background-
1DT002 Pasivos y Patrimonio/ 5px 6px;
color:
background-
rgb(167,
1DT006 Pasivos Corrientes/
169,color:
172);">
1D0309 Otros Pasivos
Financieros/
rgb(167, 317,828 368,270 268,153
169, 172);">
Cuentas por
1D0302 Pagar 205,744 279,166 273,283
Comerciales/
Cuentas por
1D0303 Pagar a Entidades 101,943 91,985 81,209
Relacionadas/
Otras Cuentas
1D0304 180,913 287,893 330,722
por Pagar/
Ingresos
1D0317 0 0 0
Diferidos/
Provisión por
1D0313 Beneficios a los 67,570 0 0
Empleados/
Otras
1D0310 0 0 0
Provisiones/

Total Pasivos
Corrientes
Distintos de
Pasivos Incluidos
en Grupos de
1D0315 Activos para su 893,968 1,027,314 953,367
Disposición
Clasificados
como
Mantenidos para
la Venta/
Pasivos incluidos
en Grupos de
Activos para su
Disposición
1D0312 0 0 0
Clasificados
como
Mantenidos para
la Venta/

<="" th=""
style="color
: rgb(255,
255, 255);
font-size:
1D03ST Total Pasivos Corrientes/
11px; 893,968 1,027,314 953,367
padding:
5px 6px;
background-
color:
rgb(167,
169, 172);">

1DT007 Pasivos No Corrientes/


Otros Pasivos
1D0401 Cuentas por 2,628,677 2,521,734 2,489,055
Financieros/
Pagar
1D0411 Comerciales y 0 109,950 125,090
Otras Cuentas
por Pagar/
Cuentas por
1D0407 Pagar 0 0 0
Comerciales/
Cuentas por
1D0402 Pagar a Entidades 0 0 0
Relacionadas/
Otras Cuentas
1D0408 0 109,950 125,090
por Pagar/
Ingresos
1D0403 0 0 0
Diferidos/

Provisión por
1D0409 Beneficios a los 66,596 0 0
Empleados/

Otras
1D0406 109,897 29,527 27,570
Provisiones/

Pasivos por
1D0404 Impuestos 243,065 227,897 301,918
Diferidos/

Pasivos por
Impuestos
1D0412 0 0 0
Corrientes, no
Corriente/

Otros Pasivos no
1D0410 0 0 0
Financieros/

<="" th=""
style="color
: rgb(255,
255, 255);
font-size:
1D04ST Total Pasivos No Corrientes/
11px; 3,048,235 2,889,108 2,943,633
padding:
5px 6px;
background-
color:
rgb(167,
169, 172);">

<="" th=""
style="color
: rgb(255,
255, 255);
font-size:
1D040T Total Pasivos/
11px; 3,942,203 3,916,422 3,897,000
padding:
5px 6px;
background-
color:
rgb(167,
169, 172);">

1DT003 Patrimonio/

1D0701 Capital Emitido/ 253,634 253,634 253,634


Primas de
1D0702 0 0 0
Emisión/
Acciones de
1D0703 25,914 25,846 25,829
Inversión/

Acciones Propias
1D0711 0 0 0
en Cartera/

Otras Reservas
1D0712 76,023 79,267 79,267
de Capital/

Resultados
1D0707 2,324,611 2,323,538 2,715,092
Acumulados/

Otras Reservas
1D0708 216,509 199,108 160,762
de Patrimonio/

Patrimonio
Atribuible a los
1D0710 2,896,691 2,881,393 3,234,584
Propietarios de la
Controladora/

Participaciones
1D0503 no 250,224 241,152 270,252
Controladoras/

<="" th=""
style="color
: rgb(255,
255, 255);
font-size:
1D07ST Total Patrimonio/
11px; 3,146,915 3,122,545 3,504,836
padding:
5px 6px;
background-
color:
rgb(167,
169, 172);">

<="" th=""
style="color
: rgb(255,
255, 255);
font-size:
1D070T TOTAL PASIVOS Y PATRIMONIO/
11px; 7,089,118 7,038,967 7,401,836
padding:
5px 6px;
background-
color:
rgb(167,
169, 172);">
Estado Financiero Anual Consolidado del Año 2017 (En miles
de nuevos soles)
CONSORCIO CEMENTERO DEL SUR S.A. - CONCESUR S.A.

ESTADO DE RESULTADOS / INCOME STATEMENT 12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018


Ingresos de Actividades
2D01ST 2,678,110 2,715,279 2,749,288
Ordinarias/

2D0201 Costo de Ventas/ -1,581,943 -1,691,399 -1,921,805

2D02ST Ganancia (Pérdida) Bruta/ 1,096,167 1,023,880 827,483

Gastos de Ventas
2D0302 -228,002 -247,027 -127,672
y Distribución/
Gastos de
2D0301 -197,664 -237,682 -205,415
Administración/
Otros Ingresos
2D0403 14,481 31,336 126,326
Operativos/
Otros Gastos
2D0404 -23,004 -2,096 -7,515
Operativos/
Otras Ganancias
2D0412 0 0 0
(Pérdidas)/

2D03ST Ganancia (Pérdida)Ganancia


Operativa/ 661,978 568,411 613,207
(Pérdida) de la
Baja en Activos
2D0407 0 0 0
Financieros
medidos al Costo
Ingresos
Amortizado/
2D0401 33,278 35,309 13,796
Financieros/

Ingresos por Intereses calculados


2D0415 usando el Método de Interes
Efectivo/

Gastos
2D0402 -198,359 -193,050 -184,960
Financieros/

Ganancia (Pérdida) por Deterioro


2D0416 de Valor (Pérdidas Participación
Crediticias en
Esperadas o Reversiones)/
la Ganancia
(Pérdida) neta de
Asociadas y
2D0406 Negocios 4,513 0 0
Conjuntos
Ganancias
Contabilizados
(Pérdidas)
Diferenciaspor
de
2D0410 por el Método 6,329 18,091 -759
Cambio Neto/ de
Reclasificación de
la Participación/
Activos
Financieros a
2D0411 0 0 0
Valor Razonable
con cambios en
Ganancia (Pérdida)Resultados
Acumuladaantes
en
medidos
Otro Resultado Integral por al Costo
Activos
2D0417 Amortizado/
Financieros medidos a Valor
Razonable reclasificados como
cambios en Resultados/

Ganancias (Pérdidas) por Cobertura


de un Grupo de Partidas con
2D0418 posiciones de Riesgo
Compensadoras/
12/31/2016 12/31/2017 12/31/2018
Ventas 2,678,110 2,715,279 2,749,288
Ventas Promedio 2,714,226
% de incremento 30% 30% adicional de ingresos respe
Ventas 2018 814,268
Ventas 2019 825,017.61

Años Analisis vertical

Cuenta 2016 2017 2018 2016

Ventas 2,678,110 2,715,279 2,749,288 100.00%

Costos -1,581,943 -1,691,399 -1,921,805 -59.07%


Gastos de Ventas y
-228,002 -247,027 -127,672 -8.51%
Distribución/
Gastos de Administración/ -197,664 -237,682 -205,415 -7.38%
adicional de ingresos respecto al promedio

Analisis vertical Analisis horizontal

2017 2018 2016-2017 2015-2014 Promedio

100.00% 100.00% 1.39% 1.25% 1.32%

-62.29% -69.90% 6.92% 13.62% -40.00%

-9.10% -4.64% 8.34% -48.32% -5.00% -11.00%

-8.75% -7.47% 20.25% -13.58% -6.00%


Proyecto: Adquisición de planta de producción para comercialización de un nuevo
La empresa tiene como objeto social dedicarse a la tenencia de acciones "holding", con este fin puede realizar invers
Valor de
adquisición
Activos Fijos Cantidad Inversión Total
unitario (Sin
IGV)
Prensa Fija Universal 55,000 1 55,000
Mezcladora 40,000 1 40,000
Esplitadora automática para cortes 45,000 1 45,000
Molino Vertical de rodillos 40,000 2 80,000
Dosificadora 35,000 2 70,000
Herramientas pesadas 45,000 1 45,000
Camión International 145,200 1 145,200
Elevadores móviles 125,400 1 125,400
Gruas móviles 75,000 2 150,000
Equipos y herramientas livianas 120,560 4 482,240
Equipo informático 5,000 2 10,000
Total Activos Fijos S/ 1,247,840

Inversión Activos Fijos 1,247,840


Capital de trabajo neto 82,502
Total de inversión inicial S/ 1,330,342

2019 2020 2021


Ventas proyectadas 825,018 860,493
Stock de CT 10% 82,502 86,049 89,749
-82,502 -3,548 -3,700
CT adicional

-330,007 -344,197
Costo de ventas

-90,752 -94,654
Gastos Administración y Ventas

Promedio de crecimiento (PBI) 4.30%


Utilizaremos el PBI promedio del sector construcción como tasa de crecimiento de ventas

Fuente: https://estadisticas.bcrp.gob.pe/estadisticas/series/anuales/resultados/PM04979AA/html/2014/2018/

Sector construcción
Condiciones:
El resultado positivo del consumo interno de cemento es explicado por la continuidad de obras de construcción en u
En tanto, el aumento del avance físico de obras respondió al mayor nivel de ejecución del gasto en obras de construc

Fuente: https://elcomercio.pe/economia/peru/pbi-octubre-crece-2-99-impulsado-sector-construccion-noticia-48176
comercialización de un nuevo tipo de cemento Portland
on este fin puede realizar inversiones en valores mobiliarios, tales como acciones, lotes de valores mobiliarios de las sociedades

Depreciación Depreciación *Valor del


Vida útil años Valor en libros Valor Residual
Anual Acumulada mercado

10 5,500 55,000 0 2,750 1,939


10 4,000 40,000 0 2,000 1,410
10 4,500 45,000 0 2,250 1,586
10 8,000 80,000 0 4,000 2,820
10 7,000 70,000 0 3,500 2,468
10 4,500 45,000 0 2,250 1,586
10 14,520 145,200 0 7,260 5,118
10 12,540 125,400 0 6,270 4,420
10 15,000 150,000 0 7,500 5,288
5 96,448 482,240 0 24,112 16,999
5 2,000 10,000 0 500 353
S/ 174,008 S/ 1,247,840 S/ - S/ 62,392 S/ 43,986

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027


897,495 936,087 976,339 1,018,321 1,062,109 1,107,780
93,609 97,634 101,832 106,211 110,778 115,541
-3,859 -4,025 -4,198 -4,379 -4,567 -4,763

-358,998 -374,435 -390,535 -407,328 -424,844 -443,112

-98,724 -102,970 -107,397 -112,015 -116,832 -121,856


imiento de ventas

4979AA/html/2014/2018/

de obras de construcción en unidades mineras, edificios de oficinas, centros comerciales, ampliación en centros universitarios,
del gasto en obras de construcción en el ámbito del Gobierno Local (49,3%), Gobierno Nacional (40,9%) y Gobierno Regional (2

ctor-construccion-noticia-481766
rios de las sociedades de inversión, así como transacciones por cuenta propia tales como compra de deuda financiera y/o come

Impuesto a la R 29.5%

*Valor de mercado= Dato

2028 2029
1,155,414 1,205,097
120,510
-4,968 120,510

-462,166 -482,039

-127,096 -132,561
centros universitarios, hoteles, así como la construcción de condominios y edificios de vivienda multifamiliar, señala el informe
y Gobierno Regional (29,9%).
euda financiera y/o comercial, créditos, facturas y demás títulos valores; también puede dedicarse a la elaboración de cemento
amiliar, señala el informe del INEI.
a la elaboración de cemento, cal en todos sus tipos y variedades, incluida la extracción y molienda de los minerales metálicos y
a de los minerales metálicos y premezclado; entre otros.
2016 2015
Pasivo 3,942,203.00 3,916,422.00
Patrimonio 3,146,915.00 3,122,545.00

Inversión Activos Fijos S/ 1,247,840


Capital de trabajo neto S/ 82,502

Total de inversión inicial S/ 1,330,342

Préstamo S/ 726,384
E S/ 603,957
Impuesto a la renta 29.5%

Inversión Fuente Externa

Entidad BBVA
Financiamiento S/. 435,831
Plazo 3
TEA 4.98%
Cuota Fija S/. 159,981

CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS

Período Saldo Amortización

0 435,831

1 435,831 138,276

2 297,554 145,163

3 152,392 152,392

4 0
2014 Promedio
3,897,000.00 3,918,541.67
3,504,836.00 3,258,098.67

7,176,640.33

%D= 54.60%

%E= 45.40%

60%

MA DE PAGOS

Interés Cuota Escudo fiscal

21,704 159,981 6,403

14,818 159,981 4,371

7,589 159,981 2,239


Inversión Fuente Externa
Entidad Interbank 40%
Financiamiento S/. 290,554
Plazo 3
TEA 6.42%
Amortización de Capital Fijo S/.96,851.25

CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS

Período Saldo Amortización Interés

0 290,554

1 290,554 96,851 18,654

2 193,703 96,851 12,436

3 96,851 96,851 6,218

4 0
Cuota Escudo fiscal

115,505 5,503

109,287 3,669

103,069 1,834
Total Inversión 1,330,342
Total Préstamo 726,384

% Financiamiento TEA
BBVA 60% 4.98%
BCP 40% 6.42%

%D= 54.60%
%E= 45.40%

IR 29.5%

Participación (%) Costo (%)


BBVA 32.76% 3.51%
INTERBANK 21.84% 4.53%
ACCIONISTAS 45.40% 16.25%
TOTAL 100.00%

Beta desapalancado
Sector: Building Materials
beta desapalancado 0.88
D/E 1.2
Impuesto a la Renta 29.50%

Beta apalancado 1.62

Rf 5.10%
Rm-Rf 6.26%
Rp 0.99%

COK 16.25%
Prestamo % Total de Inversión
435,831 32.76%
290,554 21.84%
54.60%

WACC
1.15%
0.99%
7.38%
9.51%

fuente: Damodaran

fuente: Damodaran
fuente: Damodaran
fuente: Diario Gestión fecha: 21/06
https://gestion.pe/economia/mercados/riesgo-pais-peru-tres-puntos-basicos-cierra-0-99-puntos-porcen
ierra-0-99-puntos-porcentuales-270890
Impuesto Renta 29.5%

2017 2018 2019

Ventas 825,017.61 860,493.36

Costo ventas -330,007.04 -344,197.35

Utilidad bruta 495,010.56 516,296.02

Gasto de Administración y Ventas -90,751.94 -94,654.27

Depreciación -174,008.00 -174,008.00

EBIT 230,250.63 247,633.75

IR (29.5%) -67,923.94 -73,051.96

Depreciación 174,008.00 174,008.00

Flujo de Caja Operativo (FEO) 336,334.69 348,589.79

Activo Fijo -1,247,840.00

Capital de Trabajo -82,501.76 -3,547.58 -3,700.12

F.C.L.D -1,330,341.76 332,787.12 344,889.67

Préstamo 726,384.41

Amortización -235,127.66 -242,013.82

Interés -40,357.92 -27,253.90

Escudo fiscal (EFI) 11,905.59 8,039.90

Flujo de caja financiero 726,384.41 -263,579.99 -261,227.83

F.C.N.I -603,957.36 69,207.13 83,661.85


2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

897,494.58 936,086.85 976,338.58 1,018,321.14 1,062,108.95

-358,997.83 -374,434.74 -390,535.43 -407,328.46 -424,843.58

538,496.75 561,652.11 585,803.15 610,992.68 637,265.37

-98,724.40 -102,969.55 -107,397.24 -112,015.33 -116,831.98

-174,008.00 -174,008.00 -174,008.00 -174,008.00 -174,008.00

265,764.34 284,674.55 304,397.90 324,969.36 346,425.38

-78,400.48 -83,978.99 -89,797.38 -95,865.96 -102,195.49

174,008.00 174,008.00 174,008.00 174,008.00 174,008.00

361,371.86 374,703.56 388,608.52 403,111.40 418,237.90

-492,240.00

-3,859.23 -4,025.17 -4,198.26 -4,378.78 -4,567.07

357,512.64 370,678.39 -107,829.73 398,732.62 413,670.83

-249,242.92 0.00

-13,806.96 0.00

4,073.05 0.00

-258,976.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

98,535.81 370,678.39 -107,829.73 398,732.62 413,670.83


2025 2026 2027

1,107,779.63 1,155,414.16 1,205,096.97

-443,111.85 -462,165.66 -482,038.79

664,667.78 693,248.49 723,058.18

-121,855.76 -127,095.56 -132,560.67

-174,008.00 -174,008.00 -174,008.00

368,804.02 392,144.94 416,489.51

-108,797.19 -115,682.76 -122,864.41

174,008.00 174,008.00 174,008.00

434,014.83 450,470.18 467,633.11

43,986.36

-4,763.45 -4,968.28 120,509.70 -


429,251.38 445,501.90 632,129.16

0.00 0.00 0.00

429,251.38 445,501.90 632,129.16


2017 2018
F.C.L.D -1,330,342 332,787
Préstamo 726,384
Amortización - 235,128
Interés - 40,358
Escudo fiscal (EFI) 11,905.59
F.C.N.I -603,957 69,207

COK : 16.25%

WACC: 9.51%

-1,330,342 303,874
VPN- FCLD (WACC) 831,403

-603,957 59,534
VPN- FCNI (COK) 422,107
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
344,890 357,513 370,678 -107,830 398,733

- 242,014 - 249,243 - - -
- 27,254 - 13,807 - - -
8,039.90 4,073.05 0.00 0.00 0.00
83,662 98,536 370,678 -107,830 398,733

287,564 272,191 257,696 -68,450 231,125

61,910 62,726 202,986 -50,796 161,580


2024 2025 2026 2027
413,671 429,251 445,502 632,129

- - - -
- - - -
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
413,671 429,251 445,502 632,129

218,951 207,458 196,606 254,730

144,204 128,722 114,923 140,275


Venta 2018 825,018

Impuesto Renta 29.5%


Disminución en los ingresos 40% cada año
Reduccion en los costos de Venta 10% cada año

2017 2018

Ventas 495,011

Costo ventas - 178,204

Utilidad bruta 316,807

Gasto de Administración y Ventas - 54,451

Depreciación - 174,008

EBIT 88,348

IR (29.5%) - 26,063

Depreciación 174,008

FEO 236,293

Inversión en GNK - 1,247,840

Inversión en CTN - 82,502

F.C.L.D -1,330,342 236,293

Préstamo 726,384

Amortización - 232,444

Interés - 54,886

Escudo fiscal (EFI) 16,191

F.C.N.I -603,957 -34,845

WACC: 10.28%
COK : 16.25%
-1,330,342
VPN- FCLD 48,623

-603,957
VPN- FCNI -137,839

Préstamo S/ 726,384
E S/ 603,957
Impuesto a la renta 29.5%
Incremento 2.0%

Entidad BBVA

Financiamiento S/. 435,831


Plazo 3
TEA 6.98%

Cuota Fija S/. 166,013

CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS
Período Saldo Amortización
0 435,831
1 435,831 135,592
2 300,238 145,057
3 155,182 155,182

Total Inversión 1,330,342


Préstamo 726,384
%D= 54.60%
%E= 45.40%
COK : 10%
IR 29.5%

Participación (%) Costo (%)


BBVA 32.76% 4.92%
INTERBANK 21.84% 5.94%
E 45.40% 16.25%
TOTAL 100.00%

% Financiamiento TEA
BBVA 60% 6.98%
BCP 40% 8.42%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

516,296 538,497 561,652 585,803 610,993

- 185,867 - 193,859 - 202,195 - 210,889 - 219,957

330,429 344,638 359,457 374,914 391,035

- 56,793 - 59,235 - 61,782 - 64,438 - 67,209

- 174,008 - 174,008 - 174,008 - 174,008 - 174,008

99,629 111,395 123,668 136,468 149,818

- 29,391 - 32,862 - 36,482 - 40,258 - 44,196

174,008 174,008 174,008 174,008 174,008

244,246 252,542 261,194 270,218 279,630

-492,240

244,246 252,542 261,194 -222,022 279,630

- 241,908 - 252,033

- 37,266 - 18,987

10,994 5,601

-23,934 -12,877 261,194 -222,022 279,630

VPN-FCLD 48,622.8
VPN-FCNI -137,838.7
214,257 200,816 188,273 176,564 -136,089

-29,975 -17,712 -8,197 143,032 -104,588

60% Entidad

Financiamiento
Plazo
TEA
Amortización

de Capital Fijo

A DE PAGOS
Interés Cuota Escudo fiscal Período
0
30,421 166,013 8,974 1
20,957 166,013 6,182 2
10,832 166,013 3,195 3

WACC
1.61%
1.30%
7.38%
10.28%

Prestamo % Total de Inversión


435,831 32.76%
290,554 21.84%
54.60%
2024 2025 2026 2027

637,265 664,668 693,248 723,058

- 229,416 - 239,280 - 249,569 - 260,301

407,850 425,387 443,679 462,757

- 70,099 - 73,113 - 76,257 - 79,536

- 174,008 - 174,008 - 174,008 - 174,008

163,743 178,266 193,414 209,213

- 48,304 - 52,588 - 57,057 - 61,718

174,008 174,008 174,008 174,008

289,447 299,685 310,365 321,503

43,986

82,502

289,447 299,685 310,365 447,991

289,447 299,685 310,365 447,991


155,415 145,869 136,945 128,599 168,314

113,315 100,900 89,868 80,063 99,413

Interbank 40%

S/. 290,554
3
8.42%

S/.96,851.25

CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS
Saldo Amortización Interés Cuota Escudo fiscal
290,554
290,554 96,851 24,465 121,316 7,217
193,703 96,851 16,310 113,161 4,811
96,851 96,851 8,155 105,006 2,406
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Date updated: 5-Jan-19


Created by: Aswath Damodaran, adamodar@stern.nyu.edu
What is this data? Beta, Unlevered beta and other risk measures US companies
Home Page: http://www.damodaran.com
Data website: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html
Companies in each industry: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/indname.xls
Variable definitions: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/variable.htm
Do you want to use marginal or effective tax rates in unlevering betas? Marginal
If marginal tax rate, enter the marginal tax rate to use 25.00%

Effective Tax
Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio rate Unlevered beta
Advertising 48 1.22 71.06% 5.69% 0.79
Aerospace/Defense 85 1.24 25.39% 11.40% 1.04
Air Transport 18 1.02 89.82% 6.48% 0.61
Apparel 50 0.93 35.00% 14.19% 0.74
Auto & Truck 14 0.79 195.44% 10.15% 0.32
Auto Parts 52 1.17 39.95% 11.57% 0.90
Bank (Money Center) 10 0.71 203.85% 26.01% 0.28
Banks (Regional) 633 0.57 76.51% 26.99% 0.36
Beverage (Alcoholic) 31 1.30 34.18% 2.55% 1.03
Beverage (Soft) 37 1.18 23.53% 3.87% 1.00
Broadcasting 24 1.02 144.55% 2.54% 0.49
Brokerage & Investment Banking 38 1.21 296.73% 22.47% 0.37
Building Materials 42 1.10 32.99% 16.11% 0.88
Business & Consumer Services 168 1.22 35.68% 7.60% 0.96
Cable TV 14 1.13 70.70% 3.61% 0.74
Chemical (Basic) 39 1.55 66.48% 7.33% 1.03
Chemical (Diversified) 6 1.82 36.80% 3.18% 1.42
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Effective Tax
Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio rate Unlevered beta
Chemical (Specialty) 89 1.17 32.62% 10.71% 0.94
Coal & Related Energy 23 1.17 67.40% 1.75% 0.78
Computer Services 119 1.27 39.18% 8.75% 0.98
Computers/Peripherals 57 1.68 25.13% 6.60% 1.41
Construction Supplies 48 1.45 45.88% 13.21% 1.08
Diversified 23 1.36 35.47% 7.41% 1.07
Drugs (Biotechnology) 481 1.51 18.92% 0.93% 1.32
Drugs (Pharmaceutical) 237 1.47 14.36% 2.26% 1.32
Education 35 1.28 30.73% 6.14% 1.04
Electrical Equipment 116 1.32 22.14% 4.36% 1.13
Electronics (Consumer & Office) 19 1.19 9.77% 7.67% 1.11
Electronics (General) 160 1.02 19.38% 11.67% 0.89
Engineering/Construction 52 1.01 48.88% 7.62% 0.74
Entertainment 120 1.33 19.85% 1.93% 1.16
Environmental & Waste Services 91 1.19 33.64% 3.23% 0.95
Farming/Agriculture 33 0.72 66.26% 9.64% 0.48
Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & Insurance 259 0.70 1138.31% 20.38% 0.07
Food Processing 83 0.81 46.80% 5.17% 0.60
Food Wholesalers 18 1.62 44.86% 4.71% 1.22
Furn/Home Furnishings 30 0.88 50.67% 16.96% 0.64
Green & Renewable Energy 21 1.62 146.40% 0.00% 0.77
Healthcare Products 248 1.12 14.86% 5.46% 1.01
Healthcare Support Services 111 1.15 36.22% 8.33% 0.91
Heathcare Information and Technolog 119 1.29 17.24% 5.65% 1.14
Homebuilding 31 0.98 62.24% 24.35% 0.67
Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities 34 1.12 139.76% 6.88% 0.55
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Effective Tax
Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio rate Unlevered beta
Hotel/Gaming 70 1.01 63.90% 9.55% 0.68
Household Products 141 1.13 21.12% 7.14% 0.98
Information Services 71 1.12 15.06% 10.37% 1.01
Insurance (General) 20 0.87 47.86% 13.97% 0.64
Insurance (Life) 23 1.11 104.73% 3.47% 0.62
Insurance (Prop/Cas.) 50 0.74 25.46% 15.95% 0.62
Investments & Asset Management 172 1.10 67.35% 7.09% 0.73
Machinery 127 1.17 26.93% 13.62% 0.97
Metals & Mining 94 1.32 41.78% 3.06% 1.01
Office Equipment & Services 24 1.81 61.37% 13.71% 1.24
Oil/Gas (Integrated) 5 1.16 17.25% 8.91% 1.03
Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration) 301 1.45 55.19% 1.93% 1.03
Oil/Gas Distribution 20 1.07 101.28% 8.05% 0.61
Oilfield Svcs/Equip. 134 1.33 46.78% 4.22% 0.98
Packaging & Container 27 1.07 66.41% 13.01% 0.72
Paper/Forest Products 20 1.40 48.37% 8.42% 1.02
Power 51 0.54 79.41% 13.59% 0.34
Precious Metals 91 1.19 21.25% 2.08% 1.03
Publishing & Newspapers 33 1.26 70.12% 12.00% 0.82
R.E.I.T. 238 0.68 90.71% 2.42% 0.40
Real Estate (Development) 18 1.19 69.45% 0.00% 0.79
Real Estate (General/Diversified) 11 1.36 49.84% 7.10% 0.99
Real Estate (Operations & Services) 59 1.35 65.34% 8.46% 0.90
Recreation 72 0.98 36.32% 7.43% 0.77
Reinsurance 2 0.97 29.87% 9.80% 0.79
Restaurant/Dining 78 0.80 35.53% 8.96% 0.63
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Effective Tax
Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio rate Unlevered beta
Retail (Automotive) 24 1.15 71.91% 8.89% 0.75
Retail (Building Supply) 17 1.12 22.84% 20.08% 0.95
Retail (Distributors) 88 1.44 65.63% 8.15% 0.96
Retail (General) 19 0.91 34.09% 10.85% 0.73
Retail (Grocery and Food) 12 0.45 83.43% 3.01% 0.28
Retail (Online) 79 1.42 12.00% 3.85% 1.30
Retail (Special Lines) 91 1.07 51.62% 13.81% 0.77
Rubber& Tires 4 0.42 119.65% 25.00% 0.22
Semiconductor 72 1.34 14.14% 10.19% 1.21
Semiconductor Equip 41 1.39 16.57% 13.77% 1.23
Shipbuilding & Marine 9 1.08 56.70% 0.00% 0.76
Shoe 10 0.75 7.43% 18.57% 0.72
Software (Entertainment) 92 1.26 2.19% 3.47% 1.24
Software (Internet) 44 1.46 21.65% 0.85% 1.25
Software (System & Application) 355 1.23 12.87% 4.62% 1.12
Steel 37 1.62 50.25% 4.18% 1.18
Telecom (Wireless) 21 1.26 115.78% 2.38% 0.68
Telecom. Equipment 98 1.09 18.05% 6.20% 0.96
Telecom. Services 67 1.22 89.20% 3.72% 0.73
Tobacco 17 1.29 25.23% 7.27% 1.09
Transportation 19 1.14 42.47% 5.29% 0.87
Transportation (Railroads) 10 2.47 26.93% 0.00% 2.05
Trucking 28 1.22 103.10% 1.23% 0.69
Utility (General) 18 0.27 71.36% 14.66% 0.17
Utility (Water) 19 0.42 43.00% 9.49% 0.32
Total Market 7209 1.12 66.64% 8.76% 0.75
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Effective Tax
Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio rate Unlevered beta
Total Market (without financials) 6004 1.21 34.51% 6.21% 0.96
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

YouTube Video explaining estimation choices and process. Notes


if you are looking for a pure-play beta, i.e., a beta for a business, the
nies unlevered beta corrected for cash is your best bet. Since even sector betas
can move over time, I have also reported the average of the this sector
beta across time in the last column. This number, for obvious reasons, is
less likely to be volatile over time.

Standard deviation in
operating income (last
Cash/Firm value Unlevered beta corrected for cash HiLo Risk Standard deviation of equity 10 years)
8.64% 0.87 0.6668 66.44% 14.22%
4.65% 1.09 0.5108 40.77% 14.93%
3.77% 0.63 0.4134 34.19% 82.22%
3.43% 0.76 0.5380 48.89% 20.31%
5.94% 0.34 0.4878 38.24% 167.33%
7.24% 0.97 0.5604 44.28% 53.51%
34.12% 0.43 0.1730 18.29% NA
10.54% 0.40 0.2015 20.60% NA
1.35% 1.05 0.5694 33.49% 45.51%
4.21% 1.04 0.6396 50.32% 11.51%
3.76% 0.51 0.4222 37.29% 20.09%
18.29% 0.46 0.3704 32.08% 36.54%
3.99% 0.91 0.3707 33.40% 63.16%
3.95% 1.00 0.5495 44.86% 23.12%
2.85% 0.76 0.2818 26.32% 34.31%
7.90% 1.12 0.5418 54.33% 44.65%
4.49% 1.49 0.3575 32.60% 38.52%
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Standard deviation in
operating income (last
Cash/Firm value Unlevered beta corrected for cash HiLo Risk Standard deviation of equity 10 years)
4.93% 0.99 0.4753 42.33% 17.28%
19.77% 0.97 0.5707 53.58% 227.62%
6.22% 1.05 0.6067 41.69% 11.07%
5.66% 1.50 0.5360 49.87% 32.48%
6.01% 1.15 0.4206 32.24% 29.67%
6.09% 1.14 0.5055 39.46% 22.76%
7.47% 1.43 0.6041 68.96% 49.59%
4.08% 1.38 0.6491 72.45% 6.68%
6.39% 1.11 0.5390 37.66% 33.28%
4.08% 1.18 0.6493 57.29% 15.34%
9.34% 1.22 0.5770 62.71% 441.09%
7.63% 0.96 0.5159 46.69% 28.04%
9.02% 0.81 0.4309 40.14% 8.76%
4.63% 1.21 0.6944 54.34% 24.59%
0.87% 0.96 0.6329 46.15% 13.94%
3.43% 0.50 0.5497 29.07% 25.27%
2.58% 0.08 0.3064 27.33% 52.61%
1.83% 0.61 0.4401 27.46% 23.21%
1.56% 1.23 0.5032 40.99% 17.34%
4.01% 0.67 0.4822 43.51% 36.62%
3.24% 0.80 0.7244 69.48% 76.39%
3.06% 1.04 0.5501 56.32% 11.52%
11.64% 1.03 0.5389 48.13% 23.27%
3.02% 1.18 0.5598 53.01% 29.60%
7.71% 0.72 0.4157 34.08% 106.97%
1.27% 0.55 0.4838 49.69% 25.10%
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Standard deviation in
operating income (last
Cash/Firm value Unlevered beta corrected for cash HiLo Risk Standard deviation of equity 10 years)
4.35% 0.71 0.4490 35.01% 31.98%
2.17% 1.00 0.6117 54.64% 5.51%
3.83% 1.05 0.4209 37.11% 34.13%
4.45% 0.67 0.3298 24.63% 78.92%
11.66% 0.70 0.2660 27.64% 34.68%
4.52% 0.65 0.2261 23.90% 58.81%
15.38% 0.87 0.3686 35.43% 31.54%
3.80% 1.01 0.4303 34.36% 21.36%
9.28% 1.11 0.6830 75.46% 40.16%
6.91% 1.33 0.4706 39.46% 14.22%
2.88% 1.06 0.3793 17.62% 70.40%
4.32% 1.07 0.6041 57.36% 144.17%
2.31% 0.62 0.4091 36.03% 31.61%
7.86% 1.07 0.5599 49.29% 45.09%
2.65% 0.74 0.3961 27.47% 17.02%
12.66% 1.17 0.5161 42.72% 26.22%
1.47% 0.35 0.2332 20.53% 9.03%
10.56% 1.15 0.6987 74.54% 68.39%
8.39% 0.90 0.4364 39.32% 11.72%
1.47% 0.41 0.1997 21.22% 33.06%
9.82% 0.87 0.5287 40.78% 128.52%
25.15% 1.33 0.4907 21.50% 181.97%
5.19% 0.95 0.5451 42.49% 44.41%
4.96% 0.81 0.5168 42.73% 47.44%
10.14% 0.88 0.1049 16.27% 35.84%
3.21% 0.65 0.4410 38.18% 16.17%
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Standard deviation in
operating income (last
Cash/Firm value Unlevered beta corrected for cash HiLo Risk Standard deviation of equity 10 years)
1.46% 0.76 0.4577 33.22% 33.22%
1.35% 0.97 0.4176 46.94% 31.11%
2.28% 0.99 0.5220 44.59% 33.33%
3.33% 0.75 0.4058 39.63% 6.39%
1.19% 0.28 0.3711 33.06% 25.50%
3.37% 1.34 0.5960 54.22% 28.81%
3.54% 0.80 0.5123 49.17% 19.55%
7.70% 0.24 0.3703 29.03% 40.68%
4.44% 1.26 0.4461 42.66% 33.27%
11.21% 1.39 0.4373 48.66% 67.59%
2.91% 0.78 0.5006 55.89% 33.84%
3.53% 0.74 0.3572 38.65% 24.38%
2.56% 1.27 0.6844 65.58% 61.18%
3.94% 1.31 0.6444 51.90% 54.06%
3.60% 1.16 0.5631 50.68% 11.03%
9.22% 1.29 0.4899 44.32% 72.83%
4.29% 0.71 0.6199 44.49% 44.28%
6.15% 1.02 0.4932 45.72% 20.40%
1.50% 0.74 0.6288 54.23% 33.75%
3.52% 1.13 0.6225 48.08% 10.95%
3.70% 0.90 0.4130 33.82% 27.46%
1.27% 2.08 0.3941 20.12% 21.84%
3.31% 0.71 0.4151 41.51% 34.19%
0.55% 0.17 0.1259 15.34% 7.22%
0.50% 0.32 0.3758 42.67% 21.58%
6.49% 0.80 0.4864 42.67% 16.11%
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Standard deviation in
operating income (last
Cash/Firm value Unlevered beta corrected for cash HiLo Risk Standard deviation of equity 10 years)
4.02% 1.00 0.5323 46.24% 14.99%
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Unlevered beta corrected for cash - Over time

Average
2015 2016 2017 2018 (2015-19)
0.83 0.74 0.91 0.78 0.83
1.06 1.20 0.94 0.99 1.05
0.61 0.85 0.76 0.67 0.70
0.86 0.88 0.71 0.85 0.81
0.59 0.47 0.38 0.59 0.47
1.14 1.08 0.94 0.92 1.01
0.34 0.47 0.41 0.32 0.39
0.37 0.36 0.36 0.39 0.38
0.89 0.82 0.71 1.12 0.92
0.98 0.99 0.78 0.63 0.88
0.83 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.69
0.41 0.46 0.42 0.54 0.46
0.93 0.98 0.87 0.99 0.94
1.00 0.95 0.85 1.01 0.96
0.70 0.89 0.82 0.67 0.77
0.75 0.81 0.68 0.96 0.87
0.99 1.27 1.22 1.79 1.35
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Average
2015 2016 2017 2018 (2015-19)
0.91 1.01 0.98 0.95 0.97
0.83 0.39 0.61 1.04 0.77
0.99 1.00 0.83 0.94 0.96
1.17 1.22 0.94 0.93 1.15
1.22 1.18 1.02 0.95 1.11
0.70 0.74 0.63 1.01 0.84
1.06 1.19 1.25 1.36 1.26
0.95 0.94 0.93 1.13 1.06
0.95 0.86 1.05 0.96 0.98
1.14 1.03 1.04 1.02 1.08
1.38 1.16 0.97 1.08 1.16
1.01 0.98 0.83 0.91 0.94
1.19 1.07 1.01 1.13 1.04
0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 1.02
0.94 0.82 0.63 0.70 0.81
0.58 0.77 0.62 0.56 0.60
0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07
0.82 0.74 0.63 0.56 0.67
1.26 0.61 0.93 1.41 1.09
0.92 1.00 0.69 0.67 0.79
0.68 0.84 0.47 0.72 0.70
0.90 0.92 0.92 0.89 0.93
0.91 0.89 0.82 0.82 0.89
0.84 0.99 0.83 0.88 0.94
0.92 0.81 0.77 0.89 0.82
0.59 0.44 0.45 0.51 0.51
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Average
2015 2016 2017 2018 (2015-19)
0.83 0.68 0.67 0.74 0.73
0.91 0.91 0.69 0.88 0.88
1.04 0.92 0.87 0.82 0.94
0.80 0.82 0.71 0.63 0.73
0.75 0.91 0.80 0.81 0.80
0.69 0.75 0.70 0.73 0.71
0.73 0.81 0.68 0.87 0.79
1.11 1.23 0.93 1.04 1.06
0.91 0.87 0.89 0.96 0.95
1.00 1.29 1.09 1.10 1.16
0.76 1.38 0.95 1.25 1.08
0.91 0.95 0.99 1.00 0.99
0.67 0.65 0.69 0.72 0.67
1.32 1.41 1.11 1.06 1.19
0.70 0.91 0.60 0.55 0.70
0.59 0.89 0.83 0.98 0.89
0.53 0.50 0.33 0.32 0.41
1.05 1.03 1.10 0.95 1.06
0.88 1.07 0.96 0.83 0.93
0.43 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42
0.82 0.93 0.47 0.61 0.74
1.47 1.03 1.09 0.73 1.13
0.89 0.99 0.62 0.80 0.85
0.99 0.75 0.76 0.73 0.81
1.12 0.89 0.65 0.47 0.80
0.74 0.64 0.61 0.70 0.67
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Average
2015 2016 2017 2018 (2015-19)
0.85 0.76 0.63 0.65 0.73
1.29 1.31 1.12 0.76 1.09
0.81 0.83 0.77 0.87 0.85
0.85 0.92 0.82 0.87 0.84
0.75 0.77 0.46 0.44 0.54
1.39 1.53 1.17 1.12 1.31
0.85 0.81 0.76 0.82 0.81
0.65 1.18 0.89 0.64 0.72
1.17 1.32 1.11 1.16 1.20
1.17 1.22 1.10 0.99 1.17
0.94 0.84 0.85 1.01 0.89
0.82 0.81 0.83 0.86 0.81
1.13 1.46 0.96 0.91 1.15
1.29 1.33 1.12 1.20 1.25
1.06 1.25 0.99 1.02 1.10
0.90 0.86 1.19 1.53 1.16
0.51 0.65 0.58 0.71 0.63
1.20 1.17 0.86 0.96 1.04
0.69 0.57 0.68 0.72 0.68
0.94 1.66 1.13 1.15 1.20
0.77 1.19 0.83 0.80 0.90
0.92 0.93 0.66 0.87 1.09
0.92 1.03 0.76 0.81 0.84
0.42 0.36 0.25 0.20 0.28
0.77 0.33 0.47 0.27 0.43
0.70 0.73 0.65 0.72 0.72
Global Companies Betas by Sector January 2016

Average
2015 2016 2017 2018 (2015-19)
0.87 0.9 0.85 0.90 0.90
TASA DE INTERÉS PROMEDIO DEL SISTEMA BANCARIO

Tasas Activas Anuales de las Operaciones en Moneda Nacional Realizadas en los Últimos 30 Días Útiles Por T

Tasa Anual (%) BBVA


Grandes Empresas 6.95
Descuentos 9.23
Préstamos hasta 30 días 5.16
Préstamos de 31 a 90 días 5.91
Préstamos de 91 a 180 días 6.81
Préstamos de 181 a 360 días 7.37
Préstamos a más de 360 días 6.76
Medianas Empresas 10.03

Nota: Cuadro elaborado sobre la base de la información remitida diariamente por las Empresas Bancarias a tra
definiciones de los tipos de crédito se encuentran en el Reglamento para la Evaluación y Clasificación del Deud
2008 (Ver definiciones).
s Últimos 30 Días Útiles Por Tipo de Crédito al 13/06/2019

Comercio Crédito Pichincha BIF Scotiabank Citibank Interbank Mibanco GNB Falabella
7.15 5.86 9.37 7.39 6.03 5.27 6.57 - 7.03 -
7.55 4.42 12.35 7.87 5.89 - 6.73 - 10.12 -
5.82 6.18 - 5.10 6.61 5.42 5.19 - 6.05 -
8.18 6.28 7.35 7.07 5.07 5.78 7.17 - 6.00 -
6.76 5.92 7.70 7.64 6.48 4.71 6.63 - 9.20 -
7.50 6.86 7.68 8.33 6.20 - 7.00 - 8.95 -
- 6.39 7.92 8.86 6.54 - 6.42 - - -
6.94 11.11 8.89 9.38 10.59 6.88 9.55 15.03 9.57 -

r las Empresas Bancarias a través del Reporte N°6. Las tasas de interés tienen carácter referencial. Las
ación y Clasificación del Deudor y la Exigencia de Provisiones, aprobado mediante Resolución SBS N° 11356-
Santander Ripley Azteca ICBC Promedio
7.29 - - - 6.32
7.30 - - - 6.56
6.07 - - - 5.89
6.77 - - - 6.20
7.57 - - - 6.29
8.12 - - - 6.86
- - - - 6.58
6.43 - - - 10.35
Rf y Rm

Date updated: 31-Dec-14


Created by: Aswath Damodaran, adamodar@stern.nyu.edu
What is this data Historical returns: Stocks, T.Bonds & T.Bills with prem US companies
Home Page: http://www.damodaran.com
Data website: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html
Companies in each http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/indname.xls
Variable definitio http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/variable.htm
Customized Geometric risk premium estimator
What is your riskfree rate? LT Estimates of risk premiums from 1928, over 
Enter your starting year 1981 are provided at the bottom of this table.

Value of stocks in starting year:  $    7,934.26 
Value of T.Bills in starting year:  $       448.58 
Value of T.bonds in starting year:  $       448.17 
Estimate of risk premium based on your inputs: 3.12%

Annual Returns on Investments in Compounded Value of $ 100

S&P 500
(includes
dividend 3-month Return on 10-
Year s) T.Bill year T. Bond Stocks T.Bills T.Bonds
1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84% $ 143.81 $ 103.08 $ 100.84
1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20% $ 131.88 $ 106.34 $ 105.07
1930 -25.12% 4.55% 4.54% $ 98.75 $ 111.18 $ 109.85
1931 -43.84% 2.31% -2.56% $ 55.46 $ 113.74 $ 107.03
1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79% $ 50.66 $ 114.96 $ 116.44
1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86% $ 75.99 $ 116.06 $ 118.60
1934 -1.19% 0.32% 7.96% $ 75.09 $ 116.44 $ 128.05
1935 46.74% 0.18% 4.47% $ 110.18 $ 116.64 $ 133.78
1936 31.94% 0.17% 5.02% $ 145.38 $ 116.84 $ 140.49
1937 -35.34% 0.30% 1.38% $ 94.00 $ 117.19 $ 142.43
1938 29.28% 0.08% 4.21% $ 121.53 $ 117.29 $ 148.43
1939 -1.10% 0.04% 4.41% $ 120.20 $ 117.33 $ 154.98
1940 -10.67% 0.03% 5.40% $ 107.37 $ 117.36 $ 163.35
1941 -12.77% 0.08% -2.02% $ 93.66 $ 117.46 $ 160.04
1942 19.17% 0.34% 2.29% $ 111.61 $ 117.85 $ 163.72
1943 25.06% 0.38% 2.49% $ 139.59 $ 118.30 $ 167.79
1944 19.03% 0.38% 2.58% $ 166.15 $ 118.75 $ 172.12

Page 67
Rf y Rm

1945 35.82% 0.38% 3.80% $ 225.67 $ 119.20 $ 178.67


1946 -8.43% 0.38% 3.13% $ 206.65 $ 119.65 $ 184.26
1947 5.20% 0.57% 0.92% $ 217.39 $ 120.33 $ 185.95
1948 5.70% 1.02% 1.95% $ 229.79 $ 121.56 $ 189.58
1949 18.30% 1.10% 4.66% $ 271.85 $ 122.90 $ 198.42
1950 30.81% 1.17% 0.43% $ 355.60 $ 124.34 $ 199.27
1951 23.68% 1.48% -0.30% $ 439.80 $ 126.18 $ 198.68
1952 18.15% 1.67% 2.27% $ 519.62 $ 128.29 $ 203.19
1953 -1.21% 1.89% 4.14% $ 513.35 $ 130.72 $ 211.61
1954 52.56% 0.96% 3.29% $ 783.18 $ 131.98 $ 218.57
1955 32.60% 1.66% -1.34% $ 1,038.47 $ 134.17 $ 215.65
1956 7.44% 2.56% -2.26% $ 1,115.73 $ 137.60 $ 210.79
1957 -10.46% 3.23% 6.80% $ 999.05 $ 142.04 $ 225.11
1958 43.72% 1.78% -2.10% $ 1,435.84 $ 144.57 $ 220.39
1959 12.06% 3.26% -2.65% $ 1,608.95 $ 149.27 $ 214.56
1960 0.34% 3.05% 11.64% $ 1,614.37 $ 153.82 $ 239.53
1961 26.64% 2.27% 2.06% $ 2,044.40 $ 157.30 $ 244.46
1962 -8.81% 2.78% 5.69% $ 1,864.26 $ 161.67 $ 258.38
1963 22.61% 3.11% 1.68% $ 2,285.80 $ 166.70 $ 262.74
1964 16.42% 3.51% 3.73% $ 2,661.02 $ 172.54 $ 272.53
1965 12.40% 3.90% 0.72% $ 2,990.97 $ 179.28 $ 274.49
1966 -9.97% 4.84% 2.91% $ 2,692.74 $ 187.95 $ 282.47
1967 23.80% 4.33% -1.58% $ 3,333.69 $ 196.10 $ 278.01
1968 10.81% 5.26% 3.27% $ 3,694.23 $ 206.41 $ 287.11
1969 -8.24% 6.56% -5.01% $ 3,389.77 $ 219.96 $ 272.71
1970 3.56% 6.69% 16.75% $ 3,510.49 $ 234.66 $ 318.41
1971 14.22% 4.54% 9.79% $ 4,009.72 $ 245.32 $ 349.57
1972 18.76% 3.95% 2.82% $ 4,761.76 $ 255.01 $ 359.42
1973 -14.31% 6.73% 3.66% $ 4,080.44 $ 272.16 $ 372.57
1974 -25.90% 7.78% 1.99% $ 3,023.54 $ 293.33 $ 379.98
1975 37.00% 5.99% 3.61% $ 4,142.10 $ 310.90 $ 393.68
1976 23.83% 4.97% 15.98% $ 5,129.20 $ 326.35 $ 456.61
1977 -6.98% 5.13% 1.29% $ 4,771.20 $ 343.09 $ 462.50
1978 6.51% 6.93% -0.78% $ 5,081.77 $ 366.87 $ 458.90
1979 18.52% 9.94% 0.67% $ 6,022.89 $ 403.33 $ 461.98
1980 31.74% 11.22% -2.99% $ 7,934.26 $ 448.58 $ 448.17
1981 -4.70% 14.30% 8.20% $ 7,561.16 $ 512.73 $ 484.91
1982 20.42% 11.01% 32.81% $ 9,105.08 $ 569.18 $ 644.04
1983 22.34% 8.45% 3.20% $ 11,138.90 $ 617.26 $ 664.65
1984 6.15% 9.61% 13.73% $ 11,823.51 $ 676.60 $ 755.92
1985 31.24% 7.49% 25.71% $ 15,516.60 $ 727.26 $ 950.29

Page 68
Rf y Rm

1986 18.49% 6.04% 24.28% $ 18,386.33 $ 771.15 $ 1,181.06


1987 5.81% 5.72% -4.96% $ 19,455.08 $ 815.27 $ 1,122.47
1988 16.54% 6.45% 8.22% $ 22,672.40 $ 867.86 $ 1,214.78
1989 31.48% 8.11% 17.69% $ 29,808.58 $ 938.24 $ 1,429.72
1990 -3.06% 7.55% 6.24% $ 28,895.11 $ 1,009.08 $ 1,518.87
1991 30.23% 5.61% 15.00% $ 37,631.51 $ 1,065.69 $ 1,746.77
1992 7.49% 3.41% 9.36% $ 40,451.51 $ 1,101.98 $ 1,910.30
1993 9.97% 2.98% 14.21% $ 44,483.33 $ 1,134.84 $ 2,181.77
1994 1.33% 3.99% -8.04% $ 45,073.14 $ 1,180.07 $ 2,006.43
1995 37.20% 5.52% 23.48% $ 61,838.19 $ 1,245.15 $ 2,477.55
1996 22.68% 5.02% 1.43% $ 75,863.69 $ 1,307.68 $ 2,512.94
1997 33.10% 5.05% 9.94% $100,977.34 $ 1,373.76 $ 2,762.71
1998 28.34% 4.73% 14.92% $129,592.25 $ 1,438.70 $ 3,174.95
1999 20.89% 4.51% -8.25% $156,658.05 $ 1,503.58 $ 2,912.88
2000 -9.03% 5.76% 16.66% $142,508.98 $ 1,590.23 $ 3,398.03
2001 -11.85% 3.67% 5.57% $125,622.01 $ 1,648.63 $ 3,587.37
2002 -21.97% 1.66% 15.12% $ 98,027.82 $ 1,675.96 $ 4,129.65
2003 28.36% 1.03% 0.38% $125,824.39 $ 1,693.22 $ 4,145.15
2004 10.74% 1.23% 4.49% $139,341.42 $ 1,714.00 $ 4,331.30
2005 4.83% 3.01% 2.87% $146,077.85 $ 1,765.59 $ 4,455.50
2006 15.61% 4.68% 1.96% $168,884.34 $ 1,848.18 $ 4,542.87
2007 5.48% 4.64% 10.21% $178,147.20 $ 1,933.98 $ 5,006.69
2008 -36.55% 1.59% 20.10% $113,030.22 $ 1,964.64 $ 6,013.10
2009 25.94% 0.14% -11.12% $142,344.87 $ 1,967.29 $ 5,344.65
2010 14.82% 0.13% 8.46% $163,441.94 $ 1,969.84 $ 5,796.96
2011 2.10% 0.03% 16.04% $166,871.56 $ 1,970.44 $ 6,726.52
2012 15.89% 0.05% 2.97% $193,388.43 $ 1,971.42 $ 6,926.40
2013 32.15% 0.07% -9.10% $255,553.31 $ 1,972.72 $ 6,295.79
2014 13.52% 0.05% 10.75% $290,115.42 $ 1,973.77 $ 6,972.34
2015 1.38% 0.21% 1.28% $294,115.79 $ 1,977.91 $ 7,061.89
2016 11.77% 0.51% 0.69% $328,742.28 $ 1,988.00 $ 7,110.65
2017 21.61% 1.39% 2.80% $399,768.64 $ 2,015.63 $ 7,309.87
2018 -4.23% 2.37% -0.02% $382,850.00 $ 2,063.40 $ 7,308.65
Risk Premium
Arithmetic Average Stocks ­ T.BilStocks ­ T.Bon
1928­2018 11.36% 3.43% 5.10% 7.93% 6.26%
1969­2018 11.10% 4.76% 7.10% 6.34% 4.00%
2009­2018 13.49% 0.49% 2.28% 13.00% 11.22%
Risk Premium
Geometric Average Stocks ­ T.BilStocks ­ T.Bonds
1928­2018 9.49% 3.38% 4.83% 6.11% 4.66%

Page 69
Rf y Rm

1969­2018 9.73% 4.71% 6.69% 5.01% 3.04%


2009­2018 12.98% 0.49% 1.97% 12.48% 11.00%

Page 70
Rf y Rm

 premiums from 1928, over the last 50 years and over the last 10 years
he bottom of this table.

Real Returns on Investments in

S&P 500
(includes
Stocks - Stocks - Historical risk Inflation dividends) 3-month T. !0-year
Bills Bonds premium Rate 2 Bill (Real) T.Bonds
40.73% 42.98% 43.81% 3.08% 0.84%
-11.46% -12.50% ­8.30% 3.16% 4.20%
-29.67% -29.66% ­25.12% 4.55% 4.54%
-46.15% -41.28% ­43.84% 2.31% ­2.56%
-9.71% -17.43% ­8.64% 1.07% 8.79%
49.02% 48.13% 49.98% 0.96% 1.86%
-1.51% -9.15% ­1.19% 0.32% 7.96%
46.57% 42.27% 46.74% 0.17% 4.47%
31.77% 26.93% 31.94% 0.17% 5.02%
-35.64% -36.72% ­35.34% 0.30% 1.38%
29.21% 25.07% 29.28% 0.08% 4.21%
-1.14% -5.51% ­1.10% 0.04% 4.41%
-10.70% -16.08% ­10.67% 0.03% 5.40%
-12.85% -10.75% ­12.77% 0.08% ­2.02%
18.84% 16.88% 19.17% 0.34% 2.29%
24.68% 22.57% 25.06% 0.38% 2.49%
18.65% 16.45% 19.03% 0.38% 2.58%

Page 71
Rf y Rm

35.44% 32.02% 35.82% 0.38% 3.80%


-8.81% -11.56% ­8.43% 0.38% 3.13%
4.63% 4.28% 5.20% 0.57% 0.92%
4.68% 3.75% 5.70% 1.02% 1.95%
17.20% 13.64% 18.30% 1.10% 4.66%
29.63% 30.38% 30.81% 1.17% 0.43%
22.20% 23.97% 23.68% 1.48% ­0.30%
16.48% 15.88% 18.15% 1.67% 2.27%
-3.10% -5.35% ­1.21% 1.89% 4.14%
51.60% 49.27% 52.56% 0.96% 3.29%
30.94% 33.93% 32.60% 1.66% ­1.34%
4.88% 9.70% 7.44% 2.56% ­2.26%
-13.69% -17.25% ­10.46% 3.23% 6.80%
41.94% 45.82% 43.72% 1.78% ­2.10%
8.80% 14.70% 12.06% 3.26% ­2.65%
-2.71% -11.30% 6.11% 0.34% 3.05% 11.64%
24.37% 24.58% 6.62% 26.64% 2.27% 2.06%
-11.59% -14.51% 5.97% ­8.81% 2.78% 5.69%
19.50% 20.93% 6.36% 22.61% 3.11% 1.68%
12.91% 12.69% 6.53% 16.42% 3.51% 3.73%
8.50% 11.68% 6.66% 12.40% 3.90% 0.72%
-14.81% -12.88% 6.11% ­9.97% 4.84% 2.91%
19.47% 25.38% 6.57% 23.80% 4.33% ­1.58%
5.55% 7.54% 6.60% 10.81% 5.26% 3.27%
-14.80% -3.23% 6.33% ­8.24% 6.56% ­5.01%
-3.12% -13.19% 5.90% 3.56% 6.69% 16.75%
9.68% 4.43% 5.87% 14.22% 4.54% 9.79%
14.80% 15.94% 6.08% 18.76% 3.95% 2.82%
-21.03% -17.97% 5.50% ­14.31% 6.73% 3.66%
-33.68% -27.89% 4.64% ­25.90% 7.78% 1.99%
31.01% 33.39% 5.17% 37.00% 5.99% 3.61%
18.86% 7.85% 5.22% 23.83% 4.97% 15.98%
-12.11% -8.27% 4.93% ­6.98% 5.13% 1.29%
-0.42% 7.29% 4.97% 6.51% 6.93% ­0.78%
8.58% 17.85% 5.21% 18.52% 9.94% 0.67%
20.52% 34.72% 5.73% 31.74% 11.22% ­2.99%
-19.00% -12.90% 5.37% ­4.70% 14.30% 8.20%
9.41% -12.40% 5.10% 20.42% 11.01% 32.81%
13.89% 19.14% 5.34% 22.34% 8.45% 3.20%
-3.47% -7.59% 5.12% 6.15% 9.61% 13.73%
23.75% 5.52% 5.13% 31.24% 7.49% 25.71%

Page 72
Rf y Rm

12.46% -5.79% 4.97% 18.49% 6.03% 24.28%


0.09% 10.77% 5.07% 5.81% 5.72% ­4.96%
10.09% 8.31% 5.12% 16.54% 6.45% 8.22%
23.37% 13.78% 5.24% 31.48% 8.11% 17.69%
-10.61% -9.30% 5.00% ­3.06% 7.55% 6.24%
24.62% 15.23% 5.14% 30.23% 5.61% 15.00%
4.09% -1.87% 5.03% 7.49% 3.41% 9.36%
6.98% -4.24% 4.90% 9.97% 2.98% 14.21%
-2.66% 9.36% 4.97% 1.33% 3.99% ­8.04%
31.68% 13.71% 5.08% 37.20% 5.52% 23.48%
17.66% 21.25% 5.30% 22.68% 5.02% 1.43%
28.05% 23.16% 5.53% 33.10% 5.05% 9.94%
23.61% 13.42% 5.63% 28.34% 4.73% 14.92%
16.38% 29.14% 5.96% 20.89% 4.51% ­8.25%
-14.79% -25.69% 5.51% ­9.03% 5.76% 16.66%
-15.52% -17.42% 5.17% ­11.85% 3.67% 5.57%
-23.62% -37.08% 4.53% ­21.97% 1.66% 15.12%
27.33% 27.98% 4.82% 28.36% 1.03% 0.38%
9.52% 6.25% 4.84% 10.74% 1.23% 4.49%
1.82% 1.97% 4.80% 4.83% 3.01% 2.87%
10.94% 13.65% 4.91% 15.61% 4.68% 1.96%
0.84% -4.73% 4.79% 5.48% 4.64% 10.21%
-38.14% -56.65% 3.88% ­36.55% 1.59% 20.10%
25.80% 37.05% 4.29% 25.94% 0.13% ­11.12%
14.69% 6.36% 4.31% 14.82% 0.13% 8.46%
2.07% -13.94% 4.10% 2.10% 0.03% 16.04%
15.84% 12.92% 4.20% 15.89% 0.05% 2.97%
32.08% 41.25% 4.62% 32.15% 0.07% ­9.10%
13.47% 2.78% 4.60% 13.52% 0.05% 10.75%
1.17% 0.09% 4.54% 1.38% 0.21% 1.28%
11.26% 11.08% 4.62% 11.77% 0.51% 0.69%
20.22% 18.80% 4.77% 21.61% 1.39% 2.80%
-6.60% -4.22% 4.66% ­4.23% 2.37% ­0.02%
Standard Error
Stocks ­ T.BiStocks ­ T.Bonds
2.09% 2.22%
2.38% 2.71%
3.71% 5.50%

ocks ­ T.Bonds

Page 73