TRABAJO N° 4 COMPLETAR Y EXTERDER IN

NOMBRE : JARA ROJAS HU

2019-I
R Y EXTERDER INFORMACÍÓN

ROJAS HUGO ALFONSO

 1 ER MÉTODO DE REGRESIÓN SIMPLE

Dato A X B C
1980 1617.50 1720.30 1681.50 1291.70
1981 1591.80 1633.30 1641.40 1437.80
1982 1775.70 1880.90 1812.00 1699.50
1983 1789.30 1923.00 1832.70 1483.00
1984 1188.30 1341.00 1340.50 1165.70
1985 1260.10 1529.80 1427.40 1062.30
1986 1401.00 1745.50 1582.30 1288.20
1987 1317.60 1537.40 1334.00 1201.80
1988 1624.20 1874.50 1610.30 1486.30
1989 1417.20 1658.40 1370.10 1130.00
1990 1597.10 1801.20 1618.70 1349.30
1991 1279.60 1509.30 1308.30 1074.50
1992 1429.20 1739.60 1505.70 1194.30
1993 1286.50 1687.30 1580.80 1135.70
1994 1353.80 1631.00 1610.10 1205.30
1995 1286.30 1645.40 1425.70 1087.30
1996 1488.60 1819.70 1722.70 1277.70
1997 1425.40 1752.10 1673.90 1279.80
1998 1358.90 1720.80 1565.60 1287.60
1999 1864.60 1997.90 1922.60 1780.80
2000 1780.80 1754.10 1768.30 1577.60
2001 1457.30 1748.90 1510.30 1331.90
2002 1336.40 1365.70 1322.90 1101.30
2003 1316.00 1499.70 1311.00 1070.00
2004 1590.50 1789.20 1618.90 1441.10
2005 1475.90 1680.60 1514.70 1346.00
2006 1334.20 1630.20 1385.70 1176.60
2007 1231.30 1256.50 1045.30
2008 1899.90 1970.00 1653.90
2009 1493.00 1371.00 1257.40
2010 1748.80 1659.30 1516.30
2011 1663.30 1591.90 1425.60
2012 1645.60 1537.10 1371.20
2013 1699.60 1569.30 1448.80
Para realizar la comp
2014 1449.20 1244.70 1317.60 procederemos a trab
2015 1568.30 1515.40 1414.60 esten completos en e
2016 1635.50 1549.50 1539.80 al año 2006.
2017 1420.80 1417.30 1264.20
 X- A 0.8038008
X-B 0.85872136
X-C 0.7724416

La serie que presenta mayor coef de correlacion es X vs B, y

procederemos a estimar los datos de X respecto de B.

Y = 0.777 X + 480.89

Dato X B X( estimado)
1980 1720.30 1681.50 1787.42
1981 1633.30 1641.40 1756.26 s 134.2603004
1982 1880.90 1812.00 1888.81 r 0.858721363
1983 1923.00 1832.70 1904.90
1984 1341.00 1340.50 1522.46
1985 1529.80 1427.40 1589.98
1986 1745.50 1582.30 1710.34
1987 1537.40 1334.00 1517.41
1988 1874.50 1610.30 1732.09
1989 1658.40 1370.10 1545.46
1990 1801.20 1618.70 1738.62
1991 1509.30 1308.30 1497.44
1992 1739.60 1505.70 1650.82
1993 1687.30 1580.80 1709.17
1994 1631.00 1610.10 1731.94
1995 1645.40 1425.70 1588.66
1996 1819.70 1722.70 1819.43
1997 1752.10 1673.90 1781.51
1998 1720.80 1565.60 1697.36
1999 1997.90 1922.60 1974.75
2000 1754.10 1768.30 1854.86
2001 1748.90 1510.30 1654.39
2002 1365.70 1322.90 1508.78
2003 1499.70 1311.00 1499.54
2004 1789.20 1618.90 1738.78
2005 1680.60 1514.70 1657.81
2006 1630.20 1385.70 1557.58
2007 1256.50 1457.19
2008 1970.00 2011.58
2009 1371.00 1546.16
2010 1659.30 1770.17
 2011 1591.90 1717.80
2012 1537.10 1675.22
2013 1569.30 1700.24
2014 1244.70 1448.02
2015 1515.40 1658.36
2016 1549.50 1684.85
2017 1417.30 1582.13

2DO COMPLETAR POR RAZONES DE DISTANCIAS

Distancias A X B C
A 0
X 4.88 0
B 3.23 6.86 0
C 3.57 4.2 3.25 0

Dato A X B C x(aprox)
1980 1617.50 1720.30 1681.50 1291.70 1714.19
1981 1591.80 1633.30 1641.40 1437.80 1666.74
1982 1775.70 1880.90 1812.00 1699.50 1830.54
1983 1789.30 1923.00 1832.70 1483.00 1854.87
1984 1188.30 1341.00 1340.50 1165.70 1418.25
1985 1260.10 1529.80 1427.40 1062.30 1512.86
1986 1401.00 1745.50 1582.30 1288.20 1674.91
1987 1317.60 1537.40 1334.00 1201.80 1342.38
1988 1624.20 1874.50 1610.30 1486.30 1603.20
1989 1417.20 1658.40 1370.10 1130.00 1346.04
1990 1597.10 1801.20 1618.70 1349.30 1629.73
1991 1279.60 1509.30 1308.30 1074.50 1322.96
1992 1429.20 1739.60 1505.70 1194.30 1544.78
1993 1286.50 1687.30 1580.80 1135.70 1731.14
1994 1353.80 1631.00 1610.10 1205.30 1741.03
1995 1286.30 1645.40 1425.70 1087.30 1496.91
1996 1488.60 1819.70 1722.70 1277.70 1842.29
1997 1425.40 1752.10 1673.90 1279.80 1800.84
1998 1358.90 1720.80 1565.60 1287.60 1671.19
1999 1864.60 1997.90 1922.60 1780.80 1952.23
2000 1780.80 1754.10 1768.30 1577.60 1761.91
2001 1457.30 1748.90 1510.30 1331.90 1537.37
2002 1336.40 1365.70 1322.90 1101.30 1316.00
2003 1316.00 1499.70 1311.00 1070.00 1308.45
2004 1590.50 1789.20 1618.90 1441.10 1633.41
 2005 1475.90 1680.60 1514.70 1346.00 1534.52
2006 1334.20 1630.20 1385.70 1176.60 1412.01
2007 1231.30 1256.50 1045.30 1269.37
2008 1899.90 1970.00 1653.90 2005.81
2009 1493.00 1371.00 1257.40 1308.68
2010 1748.80 1659.30 1516.30 1613.58
2011 1663.30 1591.90 1425.60 1555.43
2012 1645.60 1537.10 1371.20 1481.67
2013 1699.60 1569.30 1448.80 1502.74
2014 1449.20 1244.70 1317.60 1140.23
2015 1568.30 1515.40 1414.60 1488.38
2016 1635.50 1549.50 1539.80 1505.57
2017 1420.80 1417.30 1264.20 1415.51

3ER MÉTODO PROMEDIOS VECINALES

Dato A X B C X(aprox) S
1980 1617.50 1720.30 1681.50 1291.70 1530.23 r
1981 1591.80 1633.30 1641.40 1437.80 1557.00
1982 1775.70 1880.90 1812.00 1699.50 1762.40
1983 1789.30 1923.00 1832.70 1483.00 1701.67
1984 1188.30 1341.00 1340.50 1165.70 1231.50
1985 1260.10 1529.80 1427.40 1062.30 1249.93
1986 1401.00 1745.50 1582.30 1288.20 1423.83
1987 1317.60 1537.40 1334.00 1201.80 1284.47
1988 1624.20 1874.50 1610.30 1486.30 1573.60
1989 1417.20 1658.40 1370.10 1130.00 1305.77
1990 1597.10 1801.20 1618.70 1349.30 1521.70
1991 1279.60 1509.30 1308.30 1074.50 1220.80
1992 1429.20 1739.60 1505.70 1194.30 1376.40
1993 1286.50 1687.30 1580.80 1135.70 1334.33
1994 1353.80 1631.00 1610.10 1205.30 1389.73
1995 1286.30 1645.40 1425.70 1087.30 1266.43
1996 1488.60 1819.70 1722.70 1277.70 1496.33
1997 1425.40 1752.10 1673.90 1279.80 1459.70
1998 1358.90 1720.80 1565.60 1287.60 1404.03
1999 1864.60 1997.90 1922.60 1780.80 1856.00
2000 1780.80 1754.10 1768.30 1577.60 1708.90
2001 1457.30 1748.90 1510.30 1331.90 1433.17
2002 1336.40 1365.70 1322.90 1101.30 1253.53
2003 1316.00 1499.70 1311.00 1070.00 1232.33
2004 1590.50 1789.20 1618.90 1441.10 1550.17
2005 1475.90 1680.60 1514.70 1346.00 1445.53
2006 1334.20 1630.20 1385.70 1176.60 1298.83
2007 1231.30 1256.50 1045.30 1177.70
2008 1899.90 1970.00 1653.90 1841.27
2009 1493.00 1371.00 1257.40 1373.80
2010 1748.80 1659.30 1516.30 1641.47
2011 1663.30 1591.90 1425.60 1560.27
2012 1645.60 1537.10 1371.20 1517.97
2013 1699.60 1569.30 1448.80 1572.57
2014 1449.20 1244.70 1317.60 1337.17
2015 1568.30 1515.40 1414.60 1499.43
2016 1635.50 1549.50 1539.80 1574.93
2017 1420.80 1417.30 1264.20 1367.43

4TO MÉTODO U.S WEATHER BUREAU

Dato A X B C X(aprox)
1980 1617.50 1720.30 1681.50 1291.70 1474.84
1981 1591.80 1633.30 1641.40 1437.80 1527.79
1982 1775.70 1880.90 1812.00 1699.50 1746.11
1983 1789.30 1923.00 1832.70 1483.00 1652.21
1984 1188.30 1341.00 1340.50 1165.70 1204.58
1985 1260.10 1529.80 1427.40 1062.30 1196.25
1986 1401.00 1745.50 1582.30 1288.20 1379.80
1987 1317.60 1537.40 1334.00 1201.80 1265.77
1988 1624.20 1874.50 1610.30 1486.30 1556.55
1989 1417.20 1658.40 1370.10 1130.00 1273.10
1990 1597.10 1801.20 1618.70 1349.30 1483.80 S
1991 1279.60 1509.30 1308.30 1074.50 1187.74 r
1992 1429.20 1739.60 1505.70 1194.30 1331.72
1993 1286.50 1687.30 1580.80 1135.70 1267.36
1994 1353.80 1631.00 1610.10 1205.30 1329.02
1995 1286.30 1645.40 1425.70 1087.30 1216.93
1996 1488.60 1819.70 1722.70 1277.70 1430.39
1997 1425.40 1752.10 1673.90 1279.80 1400.61
1998 1358.90 1720.80 1565.60 1287.60 1361.82
1999 1864.60 1997.90 1922.60 1780.80 1835.27
2000 1780.80 1754.10 1768.30 1577.60 1682.54
2001 1457.30 1748.90 1510.30 1331.90 1407.42
2002 1336.40 1365.70 1322.90 1101.30 1222.88
2003 1316.00 1499.70 1311.00 1070.00 1198.83
2004 1590.50 1789.20 1618.90 1441.10 1524.91
2005 1475.90 1680.60 1514.70 1346.00 1421.37
2006 1334.20 1630.20 1385.70 1176.60 1268.83
2007 1231.30 1256.50 1045.30 1147.85
2008 1899.90 1970.00 1653.90 1796.04
2009 1493.00 1371.00 1257.40 1360.02
2010 1748.80 1659.30 1516.30 1623.04
2011 1663.30 1591.90 1425.60 1538.29
2012 1645.60 1537.10 1371.20 1496.67
2013 1699.60 1569.30 1448.80 1557.96
2014 1449.20 1244.70 1317.60 1350.76
2015 1568.30 1515.40 1414.60 1486.28
2016 1635.50 1549.50 1539.80 1575.03
2017 1420.80 1417.30 1264.20 1346.16

5TO MÉTODO DE LOS PROMEDIOS

PROMEDIO
Dato A X B C PX( estimado) P(A)
1980 1617.50 1720.30 1681.50 1291.70 1861.20 1468.288889
1981 1591.80 1633.30 1641.40 1437.80 1831.63
1982 1775.70 1880.90 1812.00 1699.50 2043.24
1983 1789.30 1923.00 1832.70 1483.00 2058.89 s
1984 1188.30 1341.00 1340.50 1165.70 1367.34 r
1985 1260.10 1529.80 1427.40 1062.30 1449.96
1986 1401.00 1745.50 1582.30 1288.20 1612.08
1987 1317.60 1537.40 1334.00 1201.80 1516.12
1988 1624.20 1874.50 1610.30 1486.30 1868.91
1989 1417.20 1658.40 1370.10 1130.00 1630.72
1990 1597.10 1801.20 1618.70 1349.30 1837.73
1991 1279.60 1509.30 1308.30 1074.50 1472.39
1992 1429.20 1739.60 1505.70 1194.30 1644.53
1993 1286.50 1687.30 1580.80 1135.70 1480.33
1994 1353.80 1631.00 1610.10 1205.30 1557.77
1995 1286.30 1645.40 1425.70 1087.30 1480.10
1996 1488.60 1819.70 1722.70 1277.70 1712.88
1997 1425.40 1752.10 1673.90 1279.80 1640.16
1998 1358.90 1720.80 1565.60 1287.60 1563.64
1999 1864.60 1997.90 1922.60 1780.80 2145.53
2000 1780.80 1754.10 1768.30 1577.60 2049.11
2001 1457.30 1748.90 1510.30 1331.90 1676.87
2002 1336.40 1365.70 1322.90 1101.30 1537.75
2003 1316.00 1499.70 1311.00 1070.00 1514.28
2004 1590.50 1789.20 1618.90 1441.10 1830.14
2005 1475.90 1680.60 1514.70 1346.00 1698.27
 2006 1334.20 1630.20 1385.70 1176.60 1535.22
2007 1231.30 1256.50 1045.30 1416.82
2008 1899.90 1970.00 1653.90 2186.15
2009 1493.00 1371.00 1257.40 1717.95
2010 1748.80 1659.30 1516.30 2012.29
2011 1663.30 1591.90 1425.60 1913.90
2012 1645.60 1537.10 1371.20 1893.54
2013 1699.60 1569.30 1448.80 1955.67
2014 1449.20 1244.70 1317.60 1667.55
2015 1568.30 1515.40 1414.60 1804.59
2016 1635.50 1549.50 1539.80 1881.92
2017 1420.80 1417.30 1264.20 1634.87

6TO MÉTODO RAZONES PROMEDIOS

Dato A X B C PX( estimado) P(A)

1 1980 1617.50 1720.30 1681.50 1291.70 1790.96 1468.288889
2 1981 1591.80 1633.30 1641.40 1437.80 1830.13
1982 1775.70 1880.90 1812.00 1699.50 2076.24
1983 1789.30 1923.00 1832.70 1483.00 1994.80
1984 1188.30 1341.00 1340.50 1165.70 1448.08
1985 1260.10 1529.80 1427.40 1062.30 1462.11
1986 1401.00 1745.50 1582.30 1288.20 1670.48
1987 1317.60 1537.40 1334.00 1201.80 1511.02
1988 1624.20 1874.50 1610.30 1486.30 1852.39 S
1989 1417.20 1658.40 1370.10 1130.00 1531.07 r
1990 1597.10 1801.20 1618.70 1349.30 1785.45
1991 1279.60 1509.30 1308.30 1074.50 1431.78
1992 1429.20 1739.60 1505.70 1194.30 1612.73
1993 1286.50 1687.30 1580.80 1135.70 1559.70
1994 1353.80 1631.00 1610.10 1205.30 1626.39
1995 1286.30 1645.40 1425.70 1087.30 1482.42
1996 1488.60 1819.70 1722.70 1277.70 1750.35
1997 1425.40 1752.10 1673.90 1279.80 1709.35
1998 1358.90 1720.80 1565.60 1287.60 1648.03
1999 1864.60 1997.90 1922.60 1780.80 2185.74
2000 1780.80 1754.10 1768.30 1577.60 2009.36
2001 1457.30 1748.90 1510.30 1331.90 1685.02
2002 1336.40 1365.70 1322.90 1101.30 1470.51
2003 1316.00 1499.70 1311.00 1070.00 1444.76
2004 1590.50 1789.20 1618.90 1441.10 1822.92
2005 1475.90 1680.60 1514.70 1346.00 1699.87
 2006 1334.20 1630.20 1385.70 1176.60 1525.15
2007 1231.30 1256.50 1045.30 1381.80
2008 1899.90 1970.00 1653.90 2161.25
2009 1493.00 1371.00 1257.40 1615.87
2010 1748.80 1659.30 1516.30 1930.96
2011 1663.30 1591.90 1425.60 1834.32
2012 1645.60 1537.10 1371.20 1784.03
2013 1699.60 1569.30 1448.80 1850.15
2014 1449.20 1244.70 1317.60 1579.53
2015 1568.30 1515.40 1414.60 1765.40
2016 1635.50 1549.50 1539.80 1857.97
2017 1420.80 1417.30 1264.20 1607.90

7Mo MÉTODO PROMEDIOS VECINALES

Dato A X B C X(aprox)
1980 1617.50 1720.30 1681.50 1291.70 1756.42 X
1981 1591.80 1633.30 1641.40 1437.80 1768.71 2200.00
1982 1775.70 1880.90 1812.00 1699.50 1910.87 2000.00
1983 1789.30 1923.00 1832.70 1483.00 1876.23 1800.00 f(x) = 0.68
1984 1188.30 1341.00 1340.50 1165.70 1538.20
1600.00
1985 1260.10 1529.80 1427.40 1062.30 1558.07
1400.00
1986 1401.00 1745.50 1582.30 1288.20 1678.89
1200.00
1987 1317.60 1537.40 1334.00 1201.80 1572.85
1988 1624.20 1874.50 1610.30 1486.30 1777.05 1000.00
1000.00 1200.00 1400
1989 1417.20 1658.40 1370.10 1130.00 1591.08
1990 1597.10 1801.20 1618.70 1349.30 1745.74
1991 1279.60 1509.30 1308.30 1074.50 1531.44 X
1992 1429.20 1739.60 1505.70 1194.30 1644.85 2200.00
1993 1286.50 1687.30 1580.80 1135.70 1621.93
2000.00
1994 1353.80 1631.00 1610.10 1205.30 1659.37
f(x) = 0
1995 1286.30 1645.40 1425.70 1087.30 1568.54 1800.00
1996 1488.60 1819.70 1722.70 1277.70 1736.06 1600.00
1997 1425.40 1752.10 1673.90 1279.80 1708.47
1400.00
1998 1358.90 1720.80 1565.60 1287.60 1664.56
1999 1864.60 1997.90 1922.60 1780.80 1978.41 1200.00
2000 1780.80 1754.10 1768.30 1577.60 1875.22 1000.00
1000.00 1200.00 1400
2001 1457.30 1748.90 1510.30 1331.90 1680.16
2002 1336.40 1365.70 1322.90 1101.30 1553.78
2003 1316.00 1499.70 1311.00 1070.00 1539.53
2004 1590.50 1789.20 1618.90 1441.10 1762.76 Xv
2005 1475.90 1680.60 1514.70 1346.00 1688.44 2200.00
2006 1334.20 1630.20 1385.70 1176.60 2000.00
2007 1231.30 1256.50 1045.30 f(x) = 0.63555749
1800.00
2008 1899.90 1970.00 1653.90
1600.00
2009 1493.00 1371.00 1257.40
2010 1748.80 1659.30 1516.30 1400.00
2011 1663.30 1591.90 1425.60 1200.00
2012 1645.60 1537.10 1371.20 1000.00
2013 1699.60 1569.30 1448.80 1000.00 1200.00 1400.0

2014 1449.20 1244.70 1317.60

2015 1568.30 1515.40 1414.60 X vs A
2016 1635.50 1549.50 1539.80 X vs B
2017 1420.80 1417.30 1264.20 X vs C

8Vo RACIONAL DEDUCTIVO

Dato A X B C X(aprox)
1980 1617.50 1720.30 1681.50 1291.70 1474.84
1981 1591.80 1633.30 1641.40 1437.80 1527.79
1982 1775.70 1880.90 1812.00 1699.50 1746.11
1983 1789.30 1923.00 1832.70 1483.00 1652.21
1984 1188.30 1341.00 1340.50 1165.70 1204.58
1985 1260.10 1529.80 1427.40 1062.30 1196.25
1986 1401.00 1745.50 1582.30 1288.20 1379.80
1987 1317.60 1537.40 1334.00 1201.80 1265.77
1988 1624.20 1874.50 1610.30 1486.30 1556.55
1989 1417.20 1658.40 1370.10 1130.00 1273.10
1990 1597.10 1801.20 1618.70 1349.30 1483.80
1991 1279.60 1509.30 1308.30 1074.50 1187.74
1992 1429.20 1739.60 1505.70 1194.30 1331.72
1993 1286.50 1687.30 1580.80 1135.70 1267.36
1994 1353.80 1631.00 1610.10 1205.30 1329.02
1995 1286.30 1645.40 1425.70 1087.30 1216.93
1996 1488.60 1819.70 1722.70 1277.70 1430.39
1997 1425.40 1752.10 1673.90 1279.80 1400.61
1998 1358.90 1720.80 1565.60 1287.60 1361.82
1999 1864.60 1997.90 1922.60 1780.80 1835.27
2000 1780.80 1754.10 1768.30 1577.60 1682.54
2001 1457.30 1748.90 1510.30 1331.90 1407.42
2002 1336.40 1365.70 1322.90 1101.30 1222.88
2003 1316.00 1499.70 1311.00 1070.00 1198.83
2004 1590.50 1789.20 1618.90 1441.10 1524.91
2005 1475.90 1680.60 1514.70 1346.00 1421.37
2006 1334.20 1630.20 1385.70 1176.60 1268.83
2007 1231.30 1256.50 1045.30 1147.85
2008 1899.90 1970.00 1653.90 1796.04
2009 1493.00 1371.00 1257.40 1360.02
2010 1748.80 1659.30 1516.30 1623.04
2011 1663.30 1591.90 1425.60 1538.29
2012 1645.60 1537.10 1371.20 1496.67
2013 1699.60 1569.30 1448.80 1557.96
2014 1449.20 1244.70 1317.60 1350.76
2015 1568.30 1515.40 1414.60 1486.28
2016 1635.50 1549.50 1539.80 1575.03
2017 1420.80 1417.30 1264.20 1346.16

9No MÉTODO REGRESIÓN MÚLTIPLE

x1 x2 x3
Dato A X B C A X estimado
1980 1617.50 1720.30 1681.50 1291.70 1617.50 1800.43
1981 1591.80 1633.30 1641.40 1437.80 1591.80 1764.86
1982 1775.70 1880.90 1812.00 1699.50 1775.70 1900.26
1983 1789.30 1923.00 1832.70 1483.00 1789.30 1924.17
1984 1188.30 1341.00 1340.50 1165.70 1188.30 1499.26
1985 1260.10 1529.80 1427.40 1062.30 1260.10 1572.03
1986 1401.00 1745.50 1582.30 1288.20 1401.00 1689.02
1987 1317.60 1537.40 1334.00 1201.80 1317.60 1525.80
1988 1624.20 1874.50 1610.30 1486.30 1624.20 1752.65
1989 1417.20 1658.40 1370.10 1130.00 1417.20 1574.29
1990 1597.10 1801.20 1618.70 1349.30 1597.10 1756.24
1991 1279.60 1509.30 1308.30 1074.50 1279.60 1506.28
1992 1429.20 1739.60 1505.70 1194.30 1429.20 1654.52
1993 1286.50 1687.30 1580.80 1135.70 1286.50 1665.91
1994 1353.80 1631.00 1610.10 1205.30 1353.80 1696.98
1995 1286.30 1645.40 1425.70 1087.30 1286.30 1576.49
1996 1488.60 1819.70 1722.70 1277.70 1488.60 1793.54
1997 1425.40 1752.10 1673.90 1279.80 1425.40 1749.22
1998 1358.90 1720.80 1565.60 1287.60 1358.90 1668.87
1999 1864.60 1997.90 1922.60 1780.80 1864.60 1984.02
2000 1780.80 1754.10 1768.30 1577.60 1780.80 1880.53
2001 1457.30 1748.90 1510.30 1331.90 1457.30 1658.80
2002 1336.40 1365.70 1322.90 1101.30 1336.40 1527.79
2003 1316.00 1499.70 1311.00 1070.00 1316.00 1516.99
2004 1590.50 1789.20 1618.90 1441.10 1590.50 1751.18
2005 1475.90 1680.60 1514.70 1346.00 1475.90 1665.41
2006 1334.20 1630.20 1385.70 1176.60 1334.20 1561.27
2007 1231.30 1256.50 1045.30 1162.57
2008 1899.90 1970.00 1653.90 1558.73
2009 1493.00 1371.00 1257.40 1221.71
2010 1748.80 1659.30 1516.30 1381.29
2011 1663.30 1591.90 1425.60 1345.15
2012 1645.60 1537.10 1371.20 1315.02
2013 1699.60 1569.30 1448.80 1330.96
2014 1449.20 1244.70 1317.60 1145.08
2015 1568.30 1515.40 1414.60 1300.57
2016 1635.50 1549.50 1539.80 1315.78
2017 1420.80 1417.30 1264.20 1248.69

10Vo CORRELACIÓN ORTOGONAL

Dato A X B C X(aprox)
1980 1617.50 1720.30 1681.50 1291.70 1547.97
1981 1591.80 1633.30 1641.40 1437.80 1593.02
1982 1775.70 1880.90 1812.00 1699.50 1401.37
1983 1789.30 1923.00 1832.70 1483.00 1378.11
1984 1188.30 1341.00 1340.50 1165.70 1931.05
1985 1260.10 1529.80 1427.40 1062.30 1833.43
1986 1401.00 1745.50 1582.30 1288.20 1659.41
1987 1317.60 1537.40 1334.00 1201.80 1938.35
1988 1624.20 1874.50 1610.30 1486.30 1627.96
1989 1417.20 1658.40 1370.10 1130.00 1897.80
1990 1597.10 1801.20 1618.70 1349.30 1618.52
1991 1279.60 1509.30 1308.30 1074.50 1967.23
1992 1429.20 1739.60 1505.70 1194.30 1745.47 Varianza X
1993 1286.50 1687.30 1580.80 1135.70 1661.10 Varianza Y
1994 1353.80 1631.00 1610.10 1205.30 1628.18 Cov XY
1995 1286.30 1645.40 1425.70 1087.30 1835.34
�^(𝟐 )- 54302.9416 *� +
1996 1488.60 1819.70 1722.70 1277.70 1501.69 191664716
 �^(𝟐 )- 54302.9416 *� +
191664716
1997 1425.40 1752.10 1673.90 1279.80 1556.51
1998 1358.90 1720.80 1565.60 1287.60 1678.17 �_�
1999 1864.60 1997.90 1922.60 1780.80 1277.12
2000 1780.80 1754.10 1768.30 1577.60 1450.46 m
2001 1457.30 1748.90 1510.30 1331.90 1740.30 b
2002 1336.40 1365.70 1322.90 1101.30 1950.82 a
2003 1316.00 1499.70 1311.00 1070.00 1964.19
2004 1590.50 1789.20 1618.90 1441.10 1618.30
2005 1475.90 1680.60 1514.70 1346.00 1735.36
2006 1334.20 1630.20 1385.70 1176.60 1880.27 S
2007 1231.30 1256.50 1045.30 2025.42 r
2008 1899.90 1970.00 1653.90 1223.87
2009 1493.00 1371.00 1257.40 1896.79
2010 1748.80 1659.30 1516.30 1572.91
2011 1663.30 1591.90 1425.60 1648.63
2012 1645.60 1537.10 1371.20 1710.19
2013 1699.60 1569.30 1448.80 1674.02
2014 1449.20 1244.70 1317.60 2038.67
2015 1568.30 1515.40 1414.60 1734.57
2016 1635.50 1549.50 1539.80 1696.26
2017 1420.80 1417.30 1264.20 1844.78

media Y media X
1689.51111 1555.48519
SIMPLE
2500.00

2000.00
Precipitación (mm)

1500.00

1000.00

500.00

0.00
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20

años

X vs A
2200.00
2200.00
2000.00
2000.00
R² = 0.6460957235 1800.00
1800.00
1600.00
1600.00
1400.00
1400.00
1200.00
1200.00
1000.00
1000.00 1000.00 1100.001200.0013
1000.00 1100.00 1200.00 1300.00 1400.00 1500.00 1600.00 1700.00 1800.00 1900.00 2000.00

Para realizar la completacion de datos, X vs C

procederemos a trabajar solo con los datos que
esten completos en este caso desde el año 1980 2200.00
al año 2006.
2000.00
R² = 0.5966660209
1800.00

1600.00
 2200.00

2000.00
R² = 0.5966660209
1800.00

1600.00

1400.00

1200.00
on es X vs B, y
1000.00
to de B. 1000.00 1100.00 1200.00 1300.00 1400.00 1500.00 1600.00 1700.00 1800

GRÁFICA CO
1er método X ORIGINAL 2do método

2500.00

2000.00

1500.00

1000.00

500.00

0.00
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1

Elegiremos las series que mas se acercan, a la original para analizar.

CORRELACIÓN DE CADA UNO DE

 método 1 R.L (simple) 0.85872136
método 2 CR 0.79482195
método 3 PV 0.84545695
método 4 US 0.82577195
método 5 M.P 0.8038008
método 6 M.R 0.84205639
DISTANCIAS método 7 P. vecianles 0.85337705
método 8 - -
método 9 R.L (multiple) 0.86892879
método 10 Correl.Ortog 0.85872136

El método de regresión

CÁLCULO DEL ERROR RE

Dato x (real)
1 1980 1720.3
2 1981 1633.3
s 186.65359924 3 1982 1880.9
r 0.794821955 4 1983 1923
5 1984 1341
6 1985 1529.8
7 1986 1745.5
8 1987 1537.4
9 1988 1874.5
10 1989 1658.4
11 1990 1801.2
12 1991 1509.3
13 1992 1739.6
14 1993 1687.3
15 1994 1631
16 1995 1645.4
17 1996 1819.7
18 1997 1752.1
19 1998 1720.8
20 1999 1997.9
21 2000 1754.1
22 2001 1748.9
 23 2002 1365.7
24 2003 1499.7
25 2004 1789.2
26 2005 1680.6
27 2006 1630.2

CINALES

175.081963
0.84545695
UREAU
A B C
D 4.88 6.86 4.2
W=1/D^2 0.0419914002 0.02124965 0.05668934

∑▒𝑊�
0.1199303919

179.067709
0.82577195
EDIOS
PROMEDIO
P(X)
1689.51111

212.481993
0.8038008
MEDIOS

P(X) P(B) P(C) N

1689.51111 1555.4851852 1294.92963 3 (Estaciones con datos completos)

207.465831
0.84205639
S estimacion de los v
Regresión de cada

A B C
X vs A 1617.5 1681.5 1291.7
2200.00 1591.8 1641.4 1437.8
2000.00 1775.7 1812 1699.5
1800.00 f(x) = 0.6856987499x + 681.4521218903 1789.3 1832.7 1483
1188.3 1340.5 1165.7
1600.00
1260.1 1427.4 1062.3
1400.00
1401 1582.3 1288.2
1200.00
1317.6 1334 1201.8
1000.00 1624.2 1610.3 1486.3
1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 1600.00 1800.00 2000.00
1417.2 1370.1 1130
1597.1 1618.7 1349.3
X vs B 1279.6 1308.3 1074.5
2200.00
1429.2 1505.7 1194.3
1286.5 1580.8 1135.7
2000.00
1353.8 1610.1 1205.3
f(x) = 0.7941603986x + 451.3015472807
1800.00 1286.3 1425.7 1087.3
1600.00 1488.6 1722.7 1277.7
1425.4 1673.9 1279.8
1400.00
1358.9 1565.6 1287.6
1200.00 1864.6 1922.6 1780.8
1000.00 1780.8 1768.3 1577.6
1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 1600.00 1800.00 2000.00
1457.3 1510.3 1331.9
1336.4 1322.9 1101.3
 1316 1311 1070
X vs C 1590.5 1618.9 1441.1
2200.00 1475.9 1514.7 1346
2000.00
f(x) = 0.6355574983x + 865.8975608587
1800.00

1600.00

1400.00 r 0.85337705
1200.00

1000.00
1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 1600.00 1800.00 2000.00

r 0.8035938221
r 0.8630738913
r 0.7711959211
 Para hallar la regresión múltiple en ecxel l
tres variables deben estar juntas

Y =463.892898 + 0.58827903*X1 - 0.03873799*X2 + 0.245675*X1

s 135.8573907
r 0.8689287924

Cálculo de los coeficientes dela ecuación

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 463.89289815 152.998191 3.03201558 0.00592694 147.392026 780.39377 147.392026
Variable X 1 0.5882790324 0.18963525 3.10216075 0.00502181 0.19598863 0.98056944 0.19598863
Variable X 2 -0.038737992 0.22928614 -0.1689504 0.86731269 -0.5130525 0.43557654 -0.5130525
Variable X 3 0.2456749958 0.24270205 1.01224936 0.32194992 -0.2563924 0.74774244 -0.2563924

Este método presenta la mayor

correlación con la estacion X , de todos
los métodos estudiados, por
consiguiente seria el ideal para realizar
la completacón de la información
faltante.
 Este método presenta la mayor
correlación con la estacion X , de todos
los métodos estudiados, por
consiguiente seria el ideal para realizar
la completacón de la información
faltante.

Para este ejercicio solo trabajaremos con la

estacion B, ya que anteriormente vimos que
esta estacion es la que posee mayor
correlacion con X .

29857.4828 729879864.41
24445.4587 54302.9416 191664716
23199.4644 538215148.53

�^(𝟐 )- 54302.9416 *� +
191664716
�^(𝟐 )- 54302.9416 *� +
191664716
Valor positivo que se obtiene al resolver la ecuación de segundo
3794.72 grado

-1.1234206
-1.1234206 Y= 3436.97 -1.1234*X
3436.97514

194.115858
0.85872136
 A
X
B
C

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

X Vs B
2200.00

2000.00
f(x) = 0.7770067061x + 480.888690943
1800.00
R² = 0.7374023792
1600.00

1400.00

1200.00

1000.00
1000.00 1100.001200.001300.001400.001500.001600.001700.001800.001900.002000.00

X vs C

09
 09

400.00 1500.00 1600.00 1700.00 1800.00 1900.00

GRÁFICA CON CADA UNO DE LOS MÉTODOS

ORIGINAL 2do método 3er método 4to metodo 5to método 6 tométodo 9 No método 7mo Método

5 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

a la original para analizar.

N DE CADA UNO DE LOS MÉTODOS

 2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

El método de regresión lineal múltiple presenta la mayor correlación con la estación X

ULO DEL ERROR RELATIVO

Erro. Relati Erro. Relati
Regresion.L R.L.Multiple R.Ortogonal Regres. Line R. Multi
1714.1935 1800.42549 1547.9729 37.2893612 7435.9559 63732.3088 27.5031984 23.2992228
1666.73746 1764.86203 1593.02124 1118.06382 9628.43129 29529.2577
1830.54334 1900.26433 1401.3692 2535.79284 4861.01587 248896.35
1854.87028 1924.16966 1378.11482 4641.65893 4802.40421 298175.888
1418.24923 1499.25963 1931.0523 5967.44292 6562.68475 186444.914
1512.86285 1572.02604 1833.42884 286.867108 3500.28365 68331.4221
1674.91455 1689.01516 1659.41418 4982.3056 198.827059 876.217779 La regresion lineal multiple
1342.37771 1525.80315 1938.3544 38033.694 33644.8915 170198.536 presenta el menor error
relativo por lo tanto seria
1603.19938 1752.64763 1627.95898 73604.026 22334.7798 15547.26 el método ideal para
1346.03963 1574.29064 1897.79966 97569.0017 52098.523 104658.088 completar la información
1629.73406 1756.23849 1618.52242 29400.57 16003.3714 18965.7154
1322.96099 1506.28007 1967.22578 34722.2264 33605.8861 212470.944
1544.77895 1654.51852 1745.46662 37955.2425 12042.7731 8271.55747
1731.13901 1665.91049 1661.09928 1921.85874 4254.75928 23.1477749
1741.02724 1696.98483 1628.18366 12105.9946 1939.73415 4733.60121
1496.91053 1576.4942 1835.33862 22049.1238 6333.5618 67000.4316
1842.28669 1793.53741 1501.68882 510.158443 2376.49238 85175.5974
1800.84272 1749.22138 1556.51074 2375.85319 2664.76305 37137.3913
1671.18978 1668.87122 1678.17496 2461.1736 5.37572653 86.5595412
1952.22848 1984.0191 1277.12116 2085.88747 1010.64306 499704.692
1761.91455 1880.53164 1450.46178 61.0672086 14070.0139 184960.085
1537.3743 1658.79772 1740.29898 44743.1203 14743.6462 6642.45533
1316.00372 1527.78511 1950.82414 2469.72073 44851.3587 178962.022
1308.44582 1516.98532 1964.1926 36578.1612 43488.7219 199994.353
1633.40774 1751.17854 1618.29774 24271.2283 13869.9616 17657.3073
1534.52043 1665.4095 1735.35602 21339.2398 17131.947 4892.51604
1412.00805 1561.27157 1880.27462 47607.7272 22279.5998 101762.943
Total 551434.496 395740.406 2814831.56
estimacion de los valores apartir de la
Regresión de cada una de las estaciones

Y (A) Y(B) Y©
1790.56975 1786.7473 1686.90452
1772.94726 1754.89988 1779.76568
1899.04749 1890.3904 1946.1022
1908.37301 1906.83034 1808.4948
1496.26731 1515.9251 1606.81892
1545.50057 1584.94108 1541.09788
1642.1157 1707.96266 1684.67992
1584.92832 1510.7628 1629.76408
1795.16394 1730.20026 1810.59228
1653.22404 1539.43342 1584.128
1776.58147 1736.87154 1723.51508
1558.87172 1490.35186 1548.8522
1661.45244 1647.12694 1624.99708
1563.60305 1706.77136 1587.75092
1609.75066 1730.04142 1631.98868
1563.46591 1583.59094 1556.98788
1702.18302 1819.46834 1678.00612
1658.84678 1780.71138 1679.34088
1613.24773 1694.69952 1684.29856
1960.00622 1978.22892 1997.77648
1902.54456 1855.68386 1868.62256
1680.72061 1650.78026 1712.45564
1597.81948 1501.94718 1565.88628
 1583.8312 1492.4962 1545.992
1772.05585 1737.03038 1781.86316
1693.47463 1654.27474 1721.4176
 a regresión múltiple en ecxel la seleccion de las
es deben estar juntas

Superior 95.0%
780.39377
0.98056944
0.43557654
0.74774244
e segundo
o método 7mo Método 10mo método

SELECIONAR 3 A 4 METODOS QUE ESTEN

CERCA AL ORIGINAL
ORIGINAL CON MET 1
ORIGINAL CON MET 2
( HALLAMOS LOS COEF DE CORRELAÓN)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

 Regres i ón Linea l
Seri e Ori gi na l
Regres i ón Mul tipl e
Regres i ón Ortogona l

994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Erro. Relati
Ortogonal
62.1387399

egresion lineal multiple

esenta el menor error
tivo por lo tanto seria
l método ideal para
mpletar la información
A 4 METODOS QUE ESTEN
INAL
MET 1
MET 2
OS COEF DE CORRELAÓN)
 EXTENCION DE LA INFORMACIÓN PARA LA R

Elegimos X vs B ya que es la serie que prese

mayor correlación en la información.
Dato X B
1 1980 1720.30 1681.50
2 1981 1633.30 1641.40 Y= a + b*X +
3 1982 1880.90 1812.00 𝜶∗𝜽∗ 〖 (�+𝒓^𝟐) 〗 ^(�/𝟐)∗𝑺_�*𝝐_�
4 1983 1923.00 1832.70 n1 27
5 1984 1341.00 1340.50 n2 11
6 1985 1529.80 1427.40 α 1.09633333
7 1986 1745.50 1582.30 r 0.85872136
8 1987 1537.40 1334.00 desv.Estan(X) 156.350436
9 1988 1874.50 1610.30
10 1989 1658.40 1370.10
11 1990 1801.20 1618.70 Y = 0.777 X + 480.89
12 1991 1509.30 1308.30
13 1992 1739.60 1505.70 S1
14 1993 1687.30 1580.80
15 1994 1631.00 1610.10 S1 156.350436
16 1995 1645.40 1425.70 S2 165.469469
17 1996 1819.70 1722.70
18 1997 1752.10 1673.90
19 1998 1720.80 1565.60 S2 S2 > S1 --> El modelo no ha mejor
20 1999 1997.90 1922.60 extender la información.
21 2000 1754.10 1768.30
( Al aumentar los datos S2 ha aum
22 2001 1748.90 1510.30
desviacion estandar aumentó)
23 2002 1365.70 1322.90
24 2003 1499.70 1311.00
25 2004 1789.20 1618.90
26 2005 1680.60 1514.70
27 2006 1630.20 1385.70
28 2007 1304.59 1256.50
29 2008 1893.79 1970.00
30 2009 1500.09 1371.00
31 2010 1783.25 1659.30
32 2011 1773.83 1591.90
33 2012 1826.47 1537.10
34 2013 1734.48 1569.30
35 2014 1357.59 1244.70
36 2015 1655.97 1515.40
37 2016 1733.00 1549.50
38 2017 1610.17 1417.30
 PRUEBAS DE HIPÓTESIS - REGRESIÓN LINEAL

1.- SELECCIÓN DE LA PRUEBA ESTADÍSTICA

Prueba "T"

2 . ESTABLECIMIENTO DE LA HIPÓTESIS

hp : 𝝆=� � = coefienciente de correlación poblacional

ha : �≠ 0

3. NIVEL DE SIGNIFICACIÓN

95% de probabilidades --> 𝜶=�.��

4. VALOR DE LA PRUEBA (Tc)

r 0.8587213629 Tc 8.37870458
n 27

5. VALOR TABULAR (Tt)

α 0.025 Tt 2.3846102
G.L 25

6. CRITERIO DE DESICIÓN

l Tc l > Tt Por lo tanto se rechaza la hipótesis planteada y se acepta la

hipótesis alterna, el coeficiente de correlación es distinto de cero, por lo
tanto no hay correlación.
IÓN PARA LA REGRESIÓN LINEAL

ya que es la serie que presenta

ón en la información. Variable
aleatoria
-1.7372713 X Vs B
-1.34094989 2200.00
^𝟐) 〗 ^(�/𝟐)∗𝑺_�*𝝐_� -0.5244965
2000.00
0.148994559
0.637937774 f(x) = 0.7770067061x + 48
1800.00
1.721909939 R² = 0.7374023792
0.389893557 1600.00
-1.02952754
-0.02719844 1400.00

0.548170647
1200.00
X + 480.89 0.319253104
1000.00
1000.001100.001200.001300.001400.001500.001600.001700.00180

l modelo no ha mejorado, No es recomendable

información.
ar los datos S2 ha aumentado , lo quiere decir que la
standar aumentó)
INEAL
 X Vs B

x) = 0.7770067061x + 480.888690943
² = 0.7374023792

.001400.001500.001600.001700.001800.001900.002000.00