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Energia
◦ Movimento, calor, trabalho, etc... (inclui energia elétrica)
2
Porque o Preço do petróleo modifica tanto?
◦ Quem são os vencedores e perdedores?
◦ E para o Brasil? Qual a influência?
3
E as mudanças Climáticas são reais?
◦ Setor elétrico influencia?
◦ Como o mundo está perante isso?
◦ E para o Brasil?
4
5
IEO2018 Reference case
world energy consumption
quadrillion Btu History Projection
500 473
400
Non-OECD
300
266
200 OECD
100
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
6
IEO2018 Reference case
average annual percent change in real GDP by region, 2015–40
OECD Non-OECD
0% 2% 4% 6% 0% 2% 4% 6%
7
Non-OECD energy consumption by region
quadrillion Btu
History Projection
500 739
661
400 610
575
523 303 Asia
300
257
200 224
200 410 157
356
Middle East
50 78
100 Africa
Americas
Europe and
Eurasia
0
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
8
IEO2018 Reference case
world energy consumption by energy source
quadrillion Btu
History Projection
250
petroleum and other 229
200
coal 182
161
150
natural gas 129
100
renewables
50
38
nuclear
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
9
IEO2018 Reference case
world delivered energy consumption in the industrial and all other end-use sectors
quadrillion Btu
History Projection
350
300
all other end- 276
250 industrial use sectors 259
245 255
237
200 227
211 206
181 196
150
100
50
0
2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2018
10
11
Primary energy consumption by fuel CO2 emissions
Coal
10 20
Gas
Oil
5 10
0 0
2017 ET ME LG 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
RT
*Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and biofuels 2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Primary energy demand
End-use sector Region Fuel
Billion toe
20 20 Other
20 Renewables
Transport
Africa Hydro
Industry
Other Asia
Nuclear
Non-combusted India
15 15 15 Coal
Buildings China
OEC Gas
D Oil
10 10 10
5 5 5
Non-combusted 2.0%
15
Buildings
1.5%
10
1.0%
5
0.5%
0 0.0%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1995-2017 2017-2040
0.5%
5
0.0%
-0.5%
0
1990- 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030-
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Billion toe
Income per Energy efficiency
30 head
25
20 World
population
15
10
0
2017 2040
Billion toe
20 Renewables 50%
Hydro
Nuclear 40%
15
Coal
Gas
30%
Oil
10
20%
5
10%
0 0%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
18
Quanto mais "energia" o mundo precisa?
0.8
Sample of
0.6 countries
0.4
80% of
0.2 population
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
0.0
0 100 200 300 400 500
Gigajoules/head
Primary energy demand and carbon emissions
50% Primary
energy
more energy
30%
10%
-10%
less carbon CO2
-30%
-50%
-70%
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038
Primary energy
CO2 Evolving transition scenario 2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
Quanto mais "energia" o mundo precisa?
100 Non-combusted
Transport
1.0
80 Total
60 0.5
40
Transport 0.0
20
0 -0.5
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030-
2035-
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Demand for non-combusted liquid fuels Liquid feedstocks for single-use plastics
Mb/d Mb/d
30 7
25 Impact of tighter 6
plastics regulations
in ET scenario 5
20
Impact of single
4
use plastics ban
15
3
10
2
5 1
0 0
2017 2040 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Mb/d
140
More energy
Evolving transition
120 Single-use plastics ban
Greater reform
100 Less globalization
Rapid transition
80 Supply with no investments in new fields
Trillions
60 of $s
40
-2% -900
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
-3%
600
-4% US
300
-5% 0
Renewables Coal
-300 2019 BP Energy Outlook
-6% Gas Oil
Total -600 © BP p.l.c. 2019
-7% -900
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Quanto mais "energia" o mundo precisa?
30%
50% Gas
Geothermal
Coal
25% and biomass
Renewables
40% Hydro & Nuclear
Solar
20%
Wind 30%
15%
20%
10%
5% 10%
0% 0%
1995 2010 2025 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Speed of penetration of new fuels in global energy system
25%
20%
15%
10%
20 20
10 10
0 0
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 1995 2017 2040
35
• Ampla gama de medidas políticas: amplamente equivalentes em
termos de custos e esforços implícitos
Rapid transtion 30
30
20
20
10
10
Transport
Power
Industry &
Buildings
0
2040
2040
1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040
ET
RT
Primary energy consumption by fuel
Billion toe
20
Renewables
16
Hydro
12 Nuclear
Coal
8
Gas
4 Oil
2019 BP Energy Outlook
© BP p.l.c. 2019
0
2017 Rapid transition Evolving transition
2040
CO2 emissions in RT scenario in
Decarbonise power sector
2040 • Renewables
• Gas (and coal) plus CCUS
Gt of
• Energy storage and demand-side-response
CO2 20
Buildi ngs
Other low-carbon energy sources and carriers
• Hydrogen
Indus try
16 • Bioenergy
Trans port
Efficiency
12 Powe r • Circular economy
• Process efficiency
8
Storage and removal of carbon
• CCUS
4 • Negative emission technologies, eg land carbon,
bioenergy with CCS (BECCS)
0
40
Fonte: EPE 41
Fonte: EPE 42
Fonte: EPE 43
Fonte: EPE 44
Fonte: EPE 45
Fonte: EPE 46
Fonte: EPE 47
Fonte: EPE 48
Fonte: EPE 49
Fonte: EPE 50
Fonte: EPE 51
Fonte: EPE 52
Fonte: EPE 53
Fonte: EPE 54
Fonte: EPE 55
Fonte: EPE 56
EPE – Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
BP Energy Outlook
57
58