Mainstreet On 23may2019

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Ontario
Voter Intentions & Party Leaders’
Favourability Ratings
Ontario Liberal Voters’ Preferred Choice
For Leader
Different Ballot Scenarios With
Potential Ontario Liberal Leaders
23rd May 2019

METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all three
a survey conducted between May 21st to 22nd, levels of government, President and CEO Quito
2019 among a sample of 996 adults, 18 years of Maggi is a respected commentator on international
age or older, living in Ontario. The survey was public affairs.
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
landlines and cellular phones. Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
The sampling frame was derived from both government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
a national telephone directory compiled by to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in
Mainstreet Research from various commercially the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
available sources and random digit dialing. The predicted the 2018 Ontario election and was the
part of the survey that dialed from the directory first to predict that a CAQ majority win in the 2018
was conducted as a stratified dial of the following Quebec election. Mainstreet Research is a member
regions; Toronto (also known as the 416 region), of the Market Research Intelligence Association and
the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 the World Association for Public Opinion Research
region), South Central Ontario, Southwestern and meets international and Canadian publication
Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In standards.
the case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region of CONTACT INFORMATION
the province they resided in. In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
and was not sponsored by a third party.
In Toronto:
The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3.1% and Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
is accurate 19 times out of 20. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this Find us online at:

report) www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
FORD PC SUPPORT COLLAPSES, WHILE LIBERAL VOTERS PREFER TORY AS THEIR LEADER
23 May 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Progressive Conservatives have slid to third, Premier Doug
Ford’s favourability ratings have now fallen below those of Kathleen Wynne’s at the end of her tenure,
while Liberal voters say that John Tory is their most preferred choice to lead the Ontario Liberal Party.
Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest Ontario survey. The poll surveyed 996 Ontarians
between May 21st to 22nd, 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1% and is accurate 19 times out
of 20.
“More and more Ontarians are turning away from Doug Ford as his support is collapsing,” said Quito
Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “We have never seen an imcumbent premier reach
these depths in popular opinion with barely a year into his mandate.”
Premier Ford has a net favourability rating of -53.5%. By comparison, Wynne’s net favourability rating
stood at -35.3% on April 30th, 2018. NDP leader Andrea Horwath’s net rating is +20.3%, interim Liberal
leader John Fraser’s net rating is +7.4%, while Green Party leader Mike Schreiner has a net rating of
+11.4%.
The poll also asked respondents who said that they would vote Liberal today who they would prefer as
Ontario Liberal leader. Among decided Liberal voters, 65% say they want to see Toronto mayor John
Tory, while 5.2% say they would prefer former cabinet minister Sandra Pupatello. Declared candidates
Steven Del Duca and Michael Coteau have 3.3% and 5%, respectively. Former education minister Mitzie
Hunter, widely expected to jump in the race, has 11.1%.
However, 54% of Liberals voters said that they were undecided about who the next leader should be.
Respondents were also presented with different ballot scenarios with Tory, Pupatello, Del Duca, Hunter,
and Coteau as potential Ontario Liberal leaders.
• 39.1% said that they would vote Liberal if Tory were leader;
• 29.6% said they would vote Liberal if Pupatello were leader;
• 27.8% would vote Liberal if Del Duca led the Ontario Liberal Party;
• 28.1% would vote Liberal if Coteau were at the helm of the Ontario Liberals;
• 28% said they would vote Liberal if Hunter were leading the party.
“Only John Tory is outperforming the current Liberal number, indicating that he is the only potential
leadership candidate that can add some value to the Ontario Liberal brand at this moment,” added
Maggi.
The poll also surveyed Ontarians who they would vote for if an election were held today. Among decided
and leaning voters, the Liberals with interim leader John Fraser at the helm have 39.9% (+13.9% since
April), while the NDP have 24.2% (-2.4%). The PCs have 22.4% (-10%), while the Greens have 12% (+3%).
-30-
For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Dr. Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If a provincial election were held today, which
All Voters party would you vote for?
7.7%
1.7%
20.8%
10.8%
All Voters
22.2%
All Voters 36.8%

Decided and Leaning Voters
7.7%
1.8%
1.7%
Progressive Conservatives NDP
11.7% Liberals Greens 20.8%
Another Party Undecided
22.4%
10.8%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
22.2%
39.9%
24.2%
36.8%
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?
(regional breakouts)
21.4%
27%
Toronto
39.8%
9.9%
1.9%
Greater Toronto Area
24.2%
17.8%
40.7%
14.2%
3.1%
22.3%
Eastern Ontario
25.5%
47.7%
4.5%
0
South Central Ontario
21.7%
31.5%
30.2%
13.2%
3.4%
Southwestern Ontario
20.7%
28.1%
34.2%
15.8%
1.2%
24.5%
Northern Ontario
16.5%
52.7%
6.4%
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party

Which of the following would you like to see as leader of the
Ontario Liberal Party?
(only asked of those who said they were voting Liberal)
60
50
40
30
20
10
4.8%
3.3%
2.4%
2.3%
1.5%
29.9%
11.1%
10.4%
5.1%
5.2%
54%
65%
5%
0
All Voters Decided Voters Only
Michael Coteau Steven Del Duca Mitzie Hunter Sandra Pupatello John Tory
Someone Else Undecided

If the provincial election were held today with
the following party leaders, which party would
you vote for?
(showing different candidates as Ontario Liberal Party leader)
100%
100%
7.7%
7.7% 7.7%
7.7%
90%
90% 11.8%
11.8% 12.1%
12.1% 12.4% 12.1%
12.1%
12.4%
8.9%
8.9%
80%
80% 10.8%
10.8%
10.8%
10.8% 10.9%
11.2%
11.2% 10.9% 12.5%
12.5%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
29.6%
29.6% 27.8%
27.8% 28.1%
28.1% 28%
28%
36.8%
36.8% 39.1%
39.1%
40%
40%
30%
30%
22.2%
22.2% 22.3% 25%
25% 25.4%
25.4% 25.6%
25.6% 24.7%
24.7%
20%
20% 22.3%
10%
10%
0%
0% 20.8%
20.8% 20.3%
20.3% 21.3%
21.3% 21.2%
21.2% 21%
21% 20.9%
20.9%
Current OLP
Current OLP John
John Tory
Tory Sandra
SandraPupatello
Pupatello Steven
StevenDel
DelDuca
Duca Michael
MichaelCoteau
Coteau Mitzie
MitzieHunter
Hunter
Support
Support
PC NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

PC NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
opinion of the following party leaders?
100%
4.2%
90%
12.1% 13.1%
14.4%
80% 8.1%
70%
100%
90%
60% 12.1% 13.1%
14.4%
80% 8.1%
50% 29.8%
70%
60%
40% 45.9%
50% 29.8% 51.4%

30%
40% 45.9%
14.8%
51.4%
20%
30% 73.4% 13.4%
14.8%
20% 73.4% 13.4%
10%
10%
0%
0% 19.9%
19.9% 50.1%
50.1% 20.8%
20.8% 26.2%
26.2%
Doug
DougFord
Ford Andrea
Andrea Horwath
Horwath JohnFraser
John Fraser MikeSchreiner
Mike Schreiner
Favourable
Favourable Opinion
Opinion Unfavourable Opinion
Unfavourable Opinion Notfamiliar
Not familiar Notsure
Not sure
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Greater South
18- 35- 50- Eastern Southwestern Northern
Total Male Female 65+ Toronto Toronto Central
34 49 64 Ontario Ontario Ontario
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 20.8% 27.5% 14.4% 20.9% 22.7% 23% 15.3% 19.9% 22.2% 21.3% 20% 19.6% 23%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
22.2% 19.5% 24.8% 33.3% 18.5% 16.5% 19.1% 25.6% 16% 23.7% 30.2% 25% 12.5%
Horwath
Liberals led by John
36.8% 32.9% 40.5% 28.8% 38.6% 38.3% 43.9% 36.9% 37.6% 45.3% 26.3% 30.6% 50.3%
Fraser
Greens led by Mike
10.8% 10.5% 11.1% 10.8% 13% 9.3% 10% 9.1% 13.2% 3.4% 12.6% 14.7% 6.2%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 2% 2.1% 0.7% 1.8% 2.7% - 3.2% 1.2% -
Undecided 7.7% 7.8% 7.6% 4.7% 5.1% 10.8% 10.9% 6.7% 8.4% 6.3% 7.7% 8.8% 8%
Unweighted Frequency 996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Weighted Frequency 996 490 506 280 251 273 192 232 274 133 89 208 61
(leaning and undecided voters)

Greater South
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 21.3% 28.1% 14.6% 20.9% 22.7% 24.1% 15.9% 20.4% 22.9% 21.3% 20.6% 19.9% 23%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
23.2% 19.8% 26.5% 33.3% 19.5% 18.2% 20.5% 26% 16.8% 24.4% 30.2% 27% 15.6%
Horwath
38% 34.4% 41.5% 30% 40.3% 38.5% 45.8% 37.9% 38.5% 45.3% 28.8% 33% 50.3%
Fraser
Greens led by Mike
11.1% 10.6% 11.7% 10.8% 13% 10.1% 10.8% 9.6% 13.4% 4.2% 12.6% 15.2% 6.2%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.8% 2% 1.6% 1.6% 2% 2.4% 0.7% 1.8% 2.9% - 3.2% 1.2% -
Undecided 4.6% 5.2% 4.1% 3.5% 2.4% 6.7% 6.2% 4.3% 5.5% 4.7% 4.7% 3.7% 5%
(decided and leaning voters)

Greater South
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 22.4% 29.7% 15.2% 21.6% 23.4% 25.9% 17% 21.4% 24.2% 22.3% 21.7% 20.7% 24.5%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
24.2% 20.8% 27.6% 34.4% 20% 19.4% 21.9% 27% 17.8% 25.5% 31.5% 28.1% 16.5%
Horwath
39.9% 36.3% 43.4% 31.1% 41.3% 41.3% 48.8% 39.8% 40.7% 47.7% 30.2% 34.2% 52.7%
Fraser
Greens led by Mike
11.7% 11.1% 12.2% 11.2% 13.3% 10.8% 11.5% 9.9% 14.2% 4.5% 13.2% 15.8% 6.4%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.5% 0.8% 1.9% 3.1% - 3.4% 1.2% -
Which of the following would you like to see as leader of the Ontario
Liberal Party? (only asked of respondents who said they were voting
Liberal)
Greater South
Area Ontario
Michael Coteau 2.3% 3.3% 1.4% 2.2% 4.3% 1.6% 1% 3.3% 2.6% - 2.7% 3% -
Steven Del Duca 1.5% 1.9% 1.1% 1.9% 1.1% 2.4% - 2.2% 2.7% - 2.3% - -
Mitzie Hunter 5.1% 2.6% 7.5% 9.6% 4.3% 3.6% 1.8% 3.3% 4.4% 2.6% - 13.4% -
Sandra Pupatello 2.4% 3.3% 1.4% - 3.3% 3.6% 2.8% 3.4% - 2.7% 2.3% 4.9% -
John Tory 29.9% 32% 27.9% 16.6% 26.8% 39.6% 39.7% 37.6% 38.4% 23.6% 26% 19.3% 18.7%
Someone Else 4.8% 7% 2.7% 3.3% 3.8% 4.8% 8.3% 2.9% 6.8% 8.6% 1.7% 3.3% 4.3%
Undecided 54% 49.9% 57.9% 66.4% 56.4% 44.5% 46.3% 47.4% 45.2% 62.5% 64.9% 56.1% 77%
Unweighted
365 193 172 51 90 117 107 83 108 65 33 61 15
Frequency
Weighted
365 179 186 103 92 100 70 85 100 49 33 76 22
Frequency
If the provincial election were held today with the following party leaders,
which party would you vote for? SCENARIO 1 - JOHN TORY
Greater South
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 20.3% 26.9% 14% 20.8% 20% 23.2% 16.1% 20.8% 21.2% 18.9% 23.6% 17.5% 23%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
22.3% 18.9% 25.7% 33.8% 19.1% 17.1% 17.4% 22.1% 18% 28.5% 27.4% 24.1% 15.6%
Horwath
Liberals led by John Tory 39.1% 36.4% 41.7% 30.2% 41.7% 42.2% 44.3% 43.6% 42.1% 37.6% 32.2% 35% 36.3%
Greens led by Mike
8.9% 8.2% 9.6% 9.2% 9% 7.9% 9.9% 4.8% 10% 5.6% 6.9% 15.3% 8.2%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.1% 3.3% 0.9% 0.8% 1.3% 2% 1% 1.8% 1.9% -
Undecided 7.7% 7.8% 7.7% 4.9% 6.9% 8.8% 11.5% 7.5% 6.6% 8.5% 8.1% 6.2% 16.9%
which party would you vote for? SCENARIO 2 - SANDRA PUPATELLO
Greater South
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 21.3% 28.7% 14.1% 21.3% 22.9% 23.3% 16.3% 20.6% 22.7% 21.3% 22.6% 19.9% 20.5%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
25% 22.6% 27.3% 35.4% 20.2% 21.2% 21.4% 29.3% 19.6% 28.2% 29.7% 25.9% 15.6%
Horwath
Liberals led by Sandra
29.6% 25.1% 34% 27.3% 30.7% 29.4% 31.9% 29.4% 33.8% 25.5% 23.3% 28.9% 32.6%
Pupatello
Greens led by Mike
10.8% 10.5% 11.1% 10.5% 12% 9.6% 11.5% 7.5% 12.4% 5% 7.9% 17.4% 10.7%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 0.6% 2% 1.8% 1.4% 2.5% 1.8% - 3.2% 0.4% -
Undecided 11.8% 11.8% 11.8% 4.9% 12.2% 14.6% 17.5% 10.6% 9.7% 19.9% 13.4% 7.6% 20.5%
which party would you vote for? SCENARIO 3 - STEVEN DEL DUCA
Greater South
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 21.2% 27.5% 15.2% 20.9% 22.3% 24.7% 15.2% 19.8% 23.3% 22.7% 22.3% 18.7% 20.5%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
25.4% 23.2% 27.5% 35% 22.4% 21.3% 21.2% 29.1% 21.2% 24.8% 29.5% 28.2% 15.6%
Horwath
Liberals led by Steven Del
27.8% 23.8% 31.7% 25.2% 29.5% 26.9% 30.7% 25.5% 30.7% 29.3% 22.5% 25.8% 35.1%
Duca
Greens led by Mike
11.2% 11.5% 10.9% 11.1% 12.4% 9.4% 12.3% 9.4% 12.3% 4.4% 10.9% 17.1% 8.2%
Schreiner
Another Party 2.3% 1.8% 2.7% 3.1% 2.1% 2% 1.7% 3.3% 2% 3.5% 2.6% 1.3% -
Undecided 12.1% 12.2% 12.1% 4.7% 11.3% 15.7% 18.9% 12.8% 10.5% 15.4% 12.2% 8.9% 20.5%
which party would you vote for? SCENARIO 4 - MICHAEL COTEAU
Greater South
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 21% 28.3% 13.9% 21.2% 22.1% 23.8% 15.3% 19.3% 23.1% 21.7% 20% 18.9% 25.1%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
25.6% 22% 29% 35.4% 19.1% 23.6% 22.4% 29.8% 20.9% 26.9% 30.4% 27.6% 13.5%
Horwath
Liberals led by Michael
28.1% 26.2% 30% 24.8% 33.4% 27.1% 27.5% 28.5% 32.4% 25.6% 21% 26.4% 29%
Coteau
Greens led by Mike
10.9% 10.2% 11.6% 12% 12% 8.4% 11.5% 8.8% 10.5% 7.1% 10.4% 17.2% 8.2%
Schreiner
Another Party 2% 1.9% 2.1% 2% 2.7% 1.6% 1.8% 3.4% 1.6% 1.9% 4.6% 0.7% -
Undecided 12.4% 11.3% 13.5% 4.6% 10.7% 15.6% 21.5% 10.2% 11.6% 16.9% 13.5% 9.2% 24.1%
which party would you vote for? SCENARIO 5 - MITZIE HUNTER
Greater South
Area Ontario
Progressive
Conservatives led by 20.9% 28.2% 13.8% 19.2% 22.3% 24.6% 16.2% 20.2% 22.5% 21.3% 21.7% 19% 20.5%
Doug Ford
NDP led by Andrea
24.7% 22.5% 26.8% 31.1% 22.5% 22% 22.1% 26.2% 20.9% 29.1% 29% 25.9% 15.6%
Horwath
Liberals led by Mitzie
28% 24.2% 31.7% 27% 28.7% 28.6% 27.8% 28.2% 30.6% 26.6% 22% 27.4% 29.6%
Hunter
Greens led by Mike
12.5% 11.6% 13.5% 15.5% 11.9% 9.3% 13.7% 12.4% 12% 6.6% 11.8% 18.8% 8.2%
Schreiner
Another Party 1.8% 1.6% 2% 1.7% 3.2% 1.1% 1% 4.2% 1.8% - 2.6% 0.4% -
Undecided 12.1% 12% 12.2% 5.5% 11.4% 14.4% 19.2% 8.8% 12.1% 16.4% 12.9% 8.6% 26.1%
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford?
Greater South
Area Ontario
Favourable Opinion 19.9% 25.7% 14.2% 19.8% 21.6% 22.6% 13.7% 18% 22.6% 19.5% 24.7% 15.5% 23%
Unfavourable
73.4% 67.4% 79.3% 72.3% 73.7% 70.7% 78.5% 76.9% 70.8% 74.7% 67.4% 73.7% 77%
Opinion
Not familiar with
2.5% 3% 2% 4.7% 2.2% 1% 1.9% 1.8% 2.7% 1.5% 2.3% 4.5% -
Doug Ford
Not Sure 4.2% 3.9% 4.5% 3.2% 2.5% 5.7% 5.8% 3.3% 3.8% 4.4% 5.5% 6.4% -
Unweighted
996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Frequency
Weighted
996 490 506 280 251 273 192 232 274 133 89 208 61
Frequency
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrea Horwath?

Greater South
Area Ontario
Favourable Opinion 50.1% 46.2% 53.8% 56.7% 45.1% 47.2% 50.9% 48.3% 46.7% 59.7% 48.9% 49.7% 53.2%
Unfavourable Opinion 29.8% 37.1% 22.6% 25.8% 37.2% 31.8% 22.8% 30% 33.7% 25.8% 35.7% 27.2% 19.8%
Not familiar with
8.1% 6.3% 9.9% 10.1% 7.5% 6.9% 7.8% 11.1% 6.5% 5.9% 4.8% 8% 13.8%
Andrea Horwath
Not Sure 12.1% 10.4% 13.7% 7.4% 10.2% 14% 18.5% 10.5% 13% 8.5% 10.5% 15.1% 13.2%
Unweighted
996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Frequency
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Fraser?

Greater South
Area Ontario
Favourable Opinion 20.8% 22.2% 19.5% 16.9% 23.4% 22% 21.4% 19.1% 22.7% 33% 14% 14.1% 24.8%
Unfavourable
13.4% 14.7% 12.1% 17.1% 12.5% 15.6% 5.9% 13.1% 11.1% 12% 18% 15.7% 12.7%
Opinion
Not familiar with
51.4% 49.7% 53.1% 53.3% 50.9% 47.2% 55.5% 55.2% 49.2% 39.5% 54.9% 53.9% 60%
John Fraser
Not Sure 14.4% 13.5% 15.3% 12.7% 13.2% 15.2% 17.3% 12.7% 17% 15.4% 13.1% 16.3% 2.5%
Unweighted
996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Frequency
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Mike Schreiner?

Greater South
Area Ontario
Favourable Opinion 26.2% 27.9% 24.5% 30.8% 24.6% 23% 26.1% 27.6% 25.3% 25.8% 22% 28.6% 23.6%
Unfavourable Opinion 14.8% 18.5% 11.2% 14% 16.5% 15.4% 12.9% 14.1% 14.7% 11.3% 17% 15.1% 21.3%
Not familiar with
45.9% 41% 50.7% 41.5% 47.3% 46.6% 49.6% 47.4% 48% 48.6% 50.8% 36.4% 50.7%
Mike Schreiner
Not Sure 13.1% 12.5% 13.6% 13.7% 11.6% 15% 11.3% 11% 11.9% 14.3% 10.3% 19.9% 4.4%
Unweighted
996 574 422 188 240 317 251 208 293 136 128 199 32
Frequency
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, (order following five scenarios randomized
which party would you vote for? - and order first four responses in each
(first four responses randomized) scenario randomized)
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario SCENARIO ONE
led by Doug Ford The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by led by Doug Ford
Andrea Horwath The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by
The Ontario Liberal Party led by John Fraser Andrea Horwath
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike The Ontario Liberal Party led by John Tory
Schreiner The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
Another party Schreiner
Undecided Another party
Undecided
Which party are you leaning towards?
(only asked to respondents who said they SCENARIO TWO
were undecided in the previous question - The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
first four responses randomized) led by Doug Ford
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by
led by Doug Ford Andrea Horwath
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by The Ontario Liberal Party led by Sandra
Andrea Horwath Pupatello
The Ontario Liberal Party led by John Fraser The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike Schreiner
Schreiner Another party
Another party Undecided
Undecided
SCENARIO THREE
Which of the following would you like to see The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party? led by Doug Ford
(only asked to respondents who said they The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by
were voting Liberal in the first question - first Andrea Horwath
five responses randomized) The Ontario Liberal Party led by Steven Del
John Tory Duca
Steven Del Duca The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
Mitzie Hunter Schreiner
Michael Coteau Another party
Sandra Pupatello Undecided
Someone Else
Undecided SCENARIO FOUR
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
We would now like to present you about a led by Doug Ford
few different ballot scenarios with different The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by
candidates and ask you how you would vote Andrea Horwath
for in each scenario. The Ontario Liberal Party led by Michael Coteau
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
If the provincial election were held today Schreiner
with the following party leaders, which party Another party
would you vote for? Undecided
FULL QUESTIONNAIRE (continued)
SCENARIO FIVE Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario opinion of John Fraser?
led by Doug Ford Favourable Opinion
The New Democratic Party of Ontario led by Unfavourable Opinion
Andrea Horwath Not familiar with John Fraser
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Mitzie Hunter Not Sure
The Green Party of Ontario led by Mike
Schreiner Do you have a favourable or unfavourable
Another party opinion of Mike Schreiner?
Undecided Favourable Opinion
Unfavourable Opinion
We would now like to ask you your opinions Not familiar with Mike Schreiner
on the four leaders of the provincial parties Not Sure
in the Ontario legislature.
What is your gender?
(order of the following four questions Male
randomized) Female
opinion of Doug Ford? What is your age group?
Favourable Opinion 18 to 34 years of age
Unfavourable Opinion 35 to 49 years of age
Not familiar with Doug Ford 50 to 64 years of age
Not Sure 65 years of age or older

opinion of Andrea Horwath?
Favourable Opinion
Unfavourable Opinion
Not familiar with Andrea Horwath
Not Sure
Ridings and Regions
The following shows the provincial electoral districts that pertain to each region in our breakouts.
Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville

Beaches--East York Mississauga--Erin Mills
Davenport Mississauga--Lakeshore
Don Valley East Mississauga--Malton
Don Valley North Mississauga--Streetsville
Don Valley West Newmarket--Aurora
Eglinton--Lawrence Oakville
Etobicoke Centre Oakville North--Burlington
Etobicoke North Oshawa
Etobicoke--Lakeshore Pickering--Uxbridge
Humber River--Black Creek Richmond Hill
Parkdale--High Park Simcoe North
Scarborough Centre Thornhill
Scarborough North Vaughan--Woodbridge
Scarborough Southwest Whitby
Scarborough--Agincourt York--Simcoe
Scarborough--Guildwood
Scarborough--Rouge Park Eastern Ontario
Spadina--Fort York Bay of Quinte
Toronto Centre Carleton
Toronto--Danforth Glengarry--Prescott--Russell
Toronto--St. Paul’s Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock
University--Rosedale Hastings--Lennox and Addington
Willowdale Kanata--Carleton
York Centre Kingston and the Islands
York South--Weston Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau
Greater Toronto Area Lakes
Ajax Nepean
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Northumberland--Peterborough South
Barrie--Innisfil Orléans
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ottawa Centre
Brampton Centre Ottawa South
Brampton East Ottawa West--Nepean
Brampton North Ottawa--Vanier
Brampton South Peterborough--Kawartha
Brampton West Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke
Burlington Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry
Dufferin--Caledon
Durham South Central Ontario
King--Vaughan Brantford--Brant
Markham--Stouffville Flamborough--Glanbrook
Markham--Thornhill Haldimand--Norfolk
Markham--Unionville Hamilton Centre
Milton Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
Mississauga Centre Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Sarnia--Lambton
Niagara Centre Simcoe--Grey
Niagara Falls Waterloo
Niagara West Wellington--Halton Hills
St. Catharines Windsor West
Windsor--Tecumseh
Southwestern Ontario
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Northern Ontario
Cambridge Algoma--Manitoulin
Chatham-Kent--Leamington Kenora--Rainy River
Elgin--Middlesex--London Kiiwetinoong
Essex Mushkegowuk--James Bay
Guelph Nickel Belt
Huron--Bruce Nipissing
Kitchener Centre Parry Sound--Muskoka
Kitchener South--Hespeler Sault Ste. Marie
Kitchener--Conestoga Sudbury
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Thunder Bay--Atikokan
London North Centre Thunder Bay--Superior North
London West Timiskaming--Cochrane
London--Fanshawe Timmins
Oxford
Perth--Wellington
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between May 21st and 22nd,
2019 among a sample of 996 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Ontario. The survey was
conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and
cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Ontario.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.The survey that
dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the following regions: Toronto (also
known as the 416 region), the Greater Toronto Area (also known as the 905 region), South Central
Ontario, Southwestern Ontario, Eastern Ontario, and Northern Ontario. In the case of random digit
dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the province they resided
in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The
calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances of making contact with
a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.mainstreetresearch.
ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of
the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18
years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age, gender, and
region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher
in each subsample.
The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.09%, Females: +/- 4.77%, 18-
34 age group: +/- 7.15%, 35-49 age group: +/- 6.33%, 50-64 age group: +/- 5.5%, 65+ age group:
+/- 6.19%, Toronto: +/- 6.79%, Greater Toronto Area: +/- 5.73%, South Central Ontario: +/- 8.66%,
Southwestern Ontario: +/- 6.95%, Eastern Ontario: +/- 8.4%, Northern Ontario: +/- 17.32%
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

23rd May 2019

(full methodology appears at the end of this Find us online at:

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

All Voters 36.8%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party

Someone Else Undecided

PC NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

50% 29.8% 51.4%

(leaning and undecided voters)

(decided and leaning voters)

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrea Horwath?

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Fraser?

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Mike Schreiner?

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable

Toronto (416) Mississauga East--Cooksville

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