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• Investors and fund managers

• Lenders

• Market rmearchers and analysts;

• Shopping centre owners and operators and • other speialisSandcmsultanS. This paper aims to

examine the valuation of Teal estate prices, using prediction strategy based on selection of the

best fitting model for use. The objective of the paper is to review the various methods used in

real estate valuation.

The role of valuation

For any valuation to have validity it must produce an accurate estimate of the market prize of the

property. The model should therefore reflex the market culture and conditions at the tine d the

valuation. It should be remembered that the model should be a Tepresentatim of the underlying

fundamentals of the market. This, in the property market, what is often called a 'valuation" is the

best estimate of the trading prize d the building. In this confect, the following convention is

adopted:

• Price is the actual exchange price in the market place

• Market value is an estimation of that price were the property to be sold in the market and

• calculating of worth is used to assess the inherent worth to the individual or group of

individuals

In many property markets it is common place for the ownership of property to be separate from

its use. Often the price of exchange will be the same whether the purchaser has investment or
occupation in mind, but nonetheless the view of the two groups et bidders will be different. An

investor will view worth as the discounted value of the rental stream produced by the asset,

whereas the owner-occupier will see the asset as a factor of production and assign to it a worth

derived from the property's contribution to the profits of the business. No doubt both groups of

bidder will also be mindful of its potential resale price to purchaser from the other group.

The concept of the worth of a property is most important in markets that are underdeveloped in

terms of liquidity and the separation of ownership and rights. Here most transactions are based

on owner-occupier views of the worth of the property, i.e the contribution it will make to

business profit, as well as subjective issues such as statusand feelings of security. Valuers. with

hardly any transaction evidence, can only attempt to replicate these calculation of worth in

arriving at an estimated price.

One of the paramount concerns of the valuation profession is the need to ensure that information

presented to a client is dear and unambiguous. Not only should all parties understand the

terminology used, it is also important that the client receives all other in that might be required to

make a rational financial or investment decision. The latter point does not only concern the

semantics of definition of exchange price (see below), but must also address the issue of

valuation methodology. Given that clients themselves are becoming more sophisticated in the

way they determine whether to buy or sell property, then the pricing model used to access the

most likely exchange price should reflect their thought process. This requires the valuers to

better understand the client's requirement; and leads to the adoption of more' advanced valuation

models which an reflect no increased level of data and information available.


Market value

A definition of value is an attempt to clarify the az(mmptions lade in estimating the exchange

price of a property if it were to be ,old in the open market. That aammption; can include the

rrature of the legal interest, the physical comitko of the building, the nature and tuning of the

;market, and assumptions about puss Me purchasers in that market. Given that a compelling

rason for wing market value definitions is to enure cora.stency in the irccea of valuation, it is

important that that is a consistency of definition in all countries. For this reason, the International

Valuation &arida nk Committee (IVS. e has set a istendard" to provide a annum definition of

market value. Market value isa representation of value in exchange, Cr the amount a property

would bring if of feral for sale in the open market at the date of valuation ender circumstances

that nett the requirements of the market value definition. In order to estimate market value, a

valuer must first estimate the highest and best we, or meet probable we That we may be a

continuation of a property's existing use or some alternative. These determinations are made

from market evidence. Market value is estimated through the application of valuation methods

and procedures that reflect the nature of property and the circumstances under which the given

property would most likely bade in the open market. Market value is defined for the purposed the

standards as follows; Ntrket value is the web:maid icracut he which are went chould exchange on

the dale of whereto &queen a waling buyer sue a waling seBar in xi antic kreth traSaCtiOn ate:

proxy :wading wherein the partite had each acted knowledgably, prudindy and wither! coagulant.

This paper reviews the various nailxxls available to the valuer to estimate market value.

Methods Fade country will havea different culture and experience, which will determine the

methods adopted for any particular valuation. The majority of all methods will rely upon some

krm of comparison to assess market value. This may be done, in its simplest fern, by direct
capital comparison or may rely upon a range of observation; that allow the valuer to determine a

ngrasion model. Any ach method is Manuel to in this paper as "traditional'. Other models or

method; try to analyse fir mat by directly mimicking the thought pnxraes of the players in the

market in an attempt to estimate the point of exchange. These models tend to be more quantitive

in method and will be referral to as 'advanced'. For each method (or apprced0 that is darn bal

blow, its theory is lriefly — explained together with an outline of how it is alpha] in the

valuation process. The appropriate economic principles are also quoted with an explanation of

how they apply toea& method. Method; can be growxyl as follows: (I) Trak Fiona! misted=

nethods: comparable method; investment/income method profit md Ind; dnelopment/residual

method; • contractor's md Ind/cod method; • multiple regreaionmethat and • depwise regression

method. (2) Advanced valuation methods • artificial neural networks(ANN1/2); • hedonic pricing

method; • spatial analysis methock; • fu2zy logic and • autongnesive integrated moving average

(ARIMA).

Traditional valuation methods Comporatle method Sala comparison is the most widely used

apprcech. The value of the property being appra lied (called the abject property) is assumed to

relate closely to the selling price; of similar properties within the same market area. The appraier

first sclera several similar properties (compambles or simply comps) from among all the

properties that have recently been sold. Since no two properties are identical the appraiser mat

adjust the selling price of cede comparable to account for dif ((Tenets between the abject a nd the

compa rabic, i.e differences in size, age. quality of comtrud ion selling date, surrounding

neighbourhcod, etc. The amnia,- infers thecurrent valueof the abject from theadjuded sales prices

of the comparables. The sales comparison upprcedt is heavily dependent on the availability,

accuracy, cownletamx;, and timelines of sale tramaction data. Information advantage of being
spread all o'er the QUC, as opposed to bungalows (one-story, ddachal, houses) and to

condoeninium units, found mainly in antiurban areas in the former cat and in central

neighbourhoods in the latter. Sal prices of sampled cottages raw from $50,030 to $ 0,000, with

man price standing at $123,1&3. Many attribute; are available to describe these tranmetfims.

They can be grouped as follows: • transaction attribute; (mainly sale price, thedependent

variable} • property specifics (66 attributes in the initial data set; 2 selected during stepwise

ngresiionanalysis -models A to D) load taxation attribute; (lwo available; two selected by the

model - model; A to D); • neighbotrhood attributes (34 rdat he attributes -models C and D); •

proximity attributes dedgnal at capturing externalities (19 initial Variables- =deli B to D); and

travel accessibility measured on the street network (15 provided -model I)). Following a five-step

approach, property specific; are first introduced in the model; proximity awl neiglbourhood

attribute; are then alcassively added on. Finally, factor analyses an, performed on each set of

access and cams variables, thereby reducing to six principal wmponents an array of 49 individual

attributes. Subt4ituting the melting facers for the initial de;aiptors leads to high model

trrfonnances, and controlled colinearity, although remainingspatial autocorreht ion isstill

detected in the residua k (Des Rosiers eia42000).

Advanced valuation methods Artificial neural networks (ANNs) Artificial neural network

models have barn offered as a pcsdble solution to many problem; in real estate valuation. An

artificial neural network model molt first be trained (roma set of data and the model i; then

utilized to estimate the prices of new properties from the same market. Neural networks are

artificial intelligence models originally designed to replicate the human brain's lea ming

prccesses. These modek have tlree primary components: (1) the input data laya; (2) the hidden

layer(s),commely referred to as the box"; and (3) the output nn ur(s) layer, the estimated property
Nalue(p). The hidden layer(s)contain two processes the weighted summation functions and the

transformationfunctions. Both of thole functions relate the values from the input data (eg. the

property attributes: number of bathrooms age of house; lot size; basement area; total area;

number of fireplaces nut of garages) to the output measures (the sales price). The weighted

summation function : typically used in a feral-forward/bade propagation neural network mcdel

is: = E (7)

where .k is the input value; and Wv is the meightsamkned to the input values for each of the j

hidden layer nodes A transformation fend ion then relates the • summation value(s) of the hidden

layer(s) to the output variable vale(s) or Its. This tramfommtion function can be of many

different forms linear fend iom, linear threshold fund MN, dep linear functions,- sigmoid

functions or Gaumian functions. Mod software products utilim a regular sigmoid trandonnation

function such as

Yr(8) I +e-Y. This function is prefened der to its non-linearity, continuity, monotonicity, and

continual differentiability properties (Forst, 199Z Trippi and Turban, 1993). That is research

about thee artificial neural network; fa estimating the lue of a random sample of 'bpi-mai'

residential moperties and a sample of outlier propertim. The data used in this re;eardi comid of

298 single-family residential properties that were sokl in Fat Collins, Colorado, USA from

November 1993 to January 1954. The variables that ddermine value were the number of

bathroom, the age of the house, the lot size, the finithed interior square footage of the home,

whether there was a Insement the number of fireplaces, and the size of the mine. The log of the

property sales price was used as the output layer for the artificial neural network model. Outlier

properties were determined as properties that mese-Bed a z-score greakr than 2.0. A z-score was

measured by mbtracting the property price from the average prig of the houses in the ample and
dividing by the :ample standard deviation. A total of 17 outlier properties were identified and

separated into an "outlier' holdoutaanple, leaving 271 properties in the"normal properties (lett sd.

The mmaining 271 properties were sated by mice and every firth property was separated out into

a tnomral' holdout sample, leaving 204 proptrtie; to be the trainingsample fir creating the

artificial neural ndworla. The model with the optimal number of hidden layer mxks would

mesms the minimum mean ahmlute prediction error and the maximum number of houses within

a 5 mr cent absolute prediction error of the actual sales price Six hidden layer node; were found

to be the optimal number of nodes within the hidden layer for the t hme artificial mutat networks

Iledoric Im'zing math The theory of hedonic price functions provide; a framework for the

analysis of differentiated goods like housing units, whose individual features do not have its

highest and best me. Each computable sale should be described. As a minimum, the ckaript ion

mud include the following data: • location • grantee; • grantee; • acceding & • date • tale pricc •

financing; • units of comparison; • lot dimensions, • configuration andsim; • physical and

Immgraphicalcharacterisiim; • zoning utilities, and • environmental influencae This analysis of

tmderstanding the market value of the land and poperty to the btsinesscan be extended to include

the valuation of development progrty. If one views the proms; of (relevelopmemt as a businem, it

is pcmthle to asset-s the market value of land and buildings in their aiding form as part of that

prccess. Development cc curs where the anent use of band and buildings is not the highest and

bed. By vending money ralewloping the site, it is pct-sible to release latent value,asthe market

value of the land is ineleamd due to the demand for the new we commanding a higher price than

the previous use. By viewing develognatt in this way, it can be seen that the residual method of

valuation is very similar to the profit; method. With the nsidual mdhod, the valuer assesses the

market value of the land in a redeveloped form (either by compariscm or by the investment
method) and deducts from this grins dewlopmtnt value all omits that will be incurred in putting

the property into the form that will command that price. These costs will indude demolition of

the existing building (if not already a deared site), infrastructure world, comt ruct ion costs,

profemional km, finance cods and a ranuneration for undertaking the risk of developmmt

(developer's profit). By deducting these ha bilitie; from the final market value, a residue is

produced. This residue represents the maximum capital expenditure for buying the land. It will

therefore indude all cents of purchase (ta mit ion, legal fees, profemional fees and finance). The

net residual land value is determined by allowing for these additional land cogs. It can be seen

therefore that the residual land value is, as with any economic rent, dependent upon the supply

and demand of the finished product, the developed property. The greater the demand for the

finished property, the higher the gram development value, and if costs ranain relatively static, the

higher the market value of the land in its original state.

Confraefor'sleosi meihod A further way in which it is possible to es mate the market value of

land and pnperty is the contractor's method or the replacement cog method. If the poperty being

valued is so sperialial that properties of that nature are rarely sold on the open market, it will be

effectively impw.abk to as it; value by • nfaence to comparable sale; of similar properties.

Fimilarly, if there is no rental produced, the invegrnent rnethod will also be inappropriate. The

profits rnethal could be applied if the property i; intrinamlly linked to the boons carrial out in the

property, Inxever, whew that business is one of production (rather than seniai it is difficult to

deterrnine the contribution of the prnixrty to the ova-all triage The plant and machinery

contained within are Hedy to ham a greater value to the business than the structure containing

than. Than, on again, the caber mint revert to understanding the thought prccea; of the Ira of the

building. This can be illustrated by reference to a property such as an oil refinery. here the nature
of the businea; is so sprialisal that there are no comparisons, the property would be owner-

cccupied so that is no rental and the plant and the machinery will be the important elements

contributing to the Nalue of the bwiru. Than, the owner of the building will simply asses the

rnarket value of the building by reference to it, replacement OWL lbw much would it coat to

npkwe the property, if the btsinea; weredeprived of its use? In simple term; market value will

equate to reconstruction emir. The valuer will assess the nrarka value of the raw land (b• nfaence

to ccanparable land mbes in an appropriate alternative tse), add to this value the cog of

rebuilding a new building which could perform the function of the existing gructure, and from

this then make subjective adjugments to allow for the obsolescence and depreciation of the

existing building relative to the new hypothetical unit. It is reasonable to assume that this mirrors

the thought inx:ea; of the owner-crawler and tins skald be viewed as a Valid and rational method

of Valuation. It is interesting that in anintrie; where property investment is less prevalent and

where owner-occupation is the favoured method of property utilisation, then it is not only

sperialisal properties which are Valued by the contractca's method. If there is no investment

market (i.e properties will only exchange between owner-ccamiers in the market) then the price

of exchange will reflect the 'bottom line' cost to the purchaser. This bottom line will be the cost

that will sad to be incurred fora new build relative to the existing property that is on the market.

There will be a strong (=relation between price and cost However, if the occupation market is

dominated by ammanies ratting and that is a degree of scarcity in the market, then price will be

determined not by cost, but by the supply and demand characteristics of the arupd local market

such a case regardle3s of the nature of the property, the invegment method will dominateas the

favoured valuation =del.

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