GDPI-WAT 2019

One man with knowledge is a majority.

 Stage II
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Welcome to
KNAPPILY

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 The Agenda
 Indian Economy
 Inequality in India
 Indian Elections
 Trump, Trump, Trump
 Brexit
 Far Right
 Fake News

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 It’s the economy, stupid.

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 The good
• In 2018-19, the Chinese economy is estimated to grow by 6.5 per
cent as against India's 7.3 per cent. In 2017-18, China grew at 6.9%
while India had slowed down to 6.7% thanks to GST &
demonetisation. HY1 of 2019 will be good for the economy due to
elections.
• Inflation is low at less than 3 percent. Good or bad? But inflationary
expectations are high at 10 percent. What does it even mean?
• The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) has been a significant
boost to the credit mechanism of the economy. The projected
amount recovered as a percentage of amount involved in the
bankruptcy proceedings was at 49.6 percent for FY 2017-2018.

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 The not so good

• Adverse global conditions. A sudden spike in crude oil prices had

sent the Indian Rupee in a freefall, widening the current account
deficit and dampening growth. Fiscal deficit to breach the target of
3.3%.
• Jobless growth: India lost 11 million jobs in 2018
• The randomness of farm loan waivers. The problem of moral
hazard.
• Contentious issues: RBI vs. GoI, NPA, GST non-compliance

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 Whatever you say of India,
 the opposite is also true.

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 The ugly
• Despite being the sixth largest economy in the world, with a gross domestic
product of $2.59 trillion (Rs 180 lakh crore), India accounts for about 30.8 percent
of world’s stunted children.
• The top 10 percent control 55 percent of the total wealth as against 31 percent in
1980. The bottom 50 percent control only 15.3 percent. The wealth of the top 1
percent has been increasing since 1980s, the wealth of bottom 50 percent has
been sliding.
• India’s public health expenditure is among the lowest in the world at 1.02 percent
of GDP (2015), far behind the 5 percent recommended by experts and other low-
income countries that average 1.4 percent. India has committed to spending up
to 5 percent of its GDP on health by 2025 according to its National Health Policy.
• Indians work for just 6.5 years at peak productivity (compared to 20 years in
China, 16 in Brazil and 13 in Sri Lanka), and India ranks 158th out of 195 countries
in an international ranking of human capital published in medical journal The
Lancet.
• India ranked 130 out of 189 countries on the 2018 HDI faring worse than Sri Lanka
(rank 76) and China (86).
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 The best argument against democracy is a

five-minute conversation with the average voter

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 India: the land of promises
• A Gallup survey in October 2018 found that Indians' ratings of their current lives
nationwide stands at an average of 4.0 on a 0-to-10 scale in 2017 – down from 4.4
back in 2014. Mere strong economic growth isn’t enough.
• The Opposition merely has to make promises. But, to win the votes of the
masses, Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs to remedy this situation. And he
must do it fast, the old way, though massive government spending.
• Arun Shourie had famously said: the BJP = Congress + Cow. In 2019, as elections
approach, the BJP = Congress. No matter what happens in 2019, there will be
more of the same, unless there is a concerted effort to change political
incentives.
• India needs to go beyond partisan politics. That is what the nation really wants
the politicians to do.
• Issues: Performance of the NDA government in five years, Major reforms, Hits
and Misses, Class vs. Caste, Sectarian politics, Fiscal federalism

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

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

Anti-immigrant, America First, Destroyer of liberal trade order

Anti-mainstream media, Good for the economy
Still going strong for 2020

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

Article 50, Hard Brexit, Soft Brexit, No-deal Brexit, Second Referendum

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

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

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 The K-module: mba.knappily.com

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 Thank You

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