GLOBAL

ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
2050

CONTENTS:

Preface 2
International Report 3
Domestic Outlook 4
Transportation and Travel 5
Artificial Intelligence (AI) 6
Implications and Future Prospects 7

OCTOBER 2050

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM

A. M. Graf (Grafik)
66-161
Preface
A look back at this century’s greatest economic developments in autonomy and their influence
on labor
To understand the future, we must reflect on the past; what has brought us to this current day, and the countless changes
that we have encountered on our journey.

The past fifty years have been some of the most formational in our history. Global growth is forecasted steadily at 4
percent, and is set to increase due to technology in the long term. Global financial conditions are expected to improve as
monetary policies regarding the removal of the Euro from the international economy are put into place. Projections remain
favorable for emerging markets in Asia and Europe, while prospects are more tepid for Latin America, the Middle East,
and sub-Saharan Africa, where – despite the ongoing recovery – the medium-term outlook does not appear to be positive
due to health concerns in conjunction with tribal warfare and a lack of sufficient medical resources.

A range of other noneconomic risks are still relevant, and if any fully materialize, it is highly like that a plethora of other
related adverse developments will arise. These issues chiefly regard the rampant population growth perpetuated by
countries in the first two stages of the demographic transition, especially those with pre-emerging markets. The current
level of economic prosperity can best be explained by two specific strategies actuated by members of the New United
Nations and new Organization for Global Alliance. These strategies have promoted diplomacy and globalization while
simultaneously creating environments for innovation and the sharing of technologies.

Firstly, the OGA initiative to “foster cooperation” has supported the overarching belief that countries need to work together
to tackle challenges that extend beyond their own borders. Therefore, in efforts to preserve and broaden the gains from
decades of global trade integrations based on strained diplomacy, countries have been able to cooperate to reduce trade
costs and resolve disagreements without exacerbating prior disagreements. Such cooperative efforts have additionally
proven essential for the financial reform process, and have helped to increase international revenues, enhance Artificial
Intelligence (AI) security, and maintain a relatively strong labor force while simultaneously mitigating and coping with
issues of climate change and global health.

Secondly, foreign nations have collaborated successfully throughout the past decades to collectively increase the global
potential for future growth. The OGA believes foundationally that all countries should have the ability – and desire – to
adopt policies that raise their own productivity and ensure widespread gains. By enacting legislation that encourages
technological innovation and dissemination, and working to combat labor issues caused by a growing population and
increased levels of automation, the global economy has continued to thrive.

These policies have helped increase employment and income levels, and have provided opportunities to reinvest in
education and job training for those whose jobs are most at risk of automation. In 2040, China eclipsed the United States
to become the largest economy in the world.

The United States was the world’s largest economy for about a century, but with the increase in demand for
manufacturing of automated goods and AI devices, China is hoping to remain the dominant economic force for between
30 and 40 years before India, one of the fastest-growing economies with major emerging markets, is likely to surpass
them. In 2037, India became the world’s third-largest economy, with the help of its rapidly growing population, and its
natural resources and immense volume of exports have since began to challenge United States as the second-largest
economic force.

As will be made clear throughout the pages of this year’s Global Economic Outlook, automation and technology have
together become the major proponents of a world in which Artificial Intelligence and machine learning control much of
humanity’s resources and day-to-day operations. Autonomy has monumentally impacted the labor force, resulting in a
paradigmatic shift that will foundationally alter the nature, structure, and philosophy of labor markets and the production
of resources in the global economy. Until then, there is much to be done.

2
International Report
Consumerism peaks in the face of rampant labor and population concerns
Two of the most notable economic developments of the past century have happened within the last five years, and have therefore been
reported below.

1. 2044: European Union banknotes become obsolete

The invalidation of the dominant European currency marks the end of the transition period in which banks sought to finally remove all
physical banknotes and coinage from domestic and international markets and production lines. The lack of demand for cash and
traditional forms of coinage and currency was stimulated by the development and mass popularization and promulgation of
“SmartCards”, specialized credit cards that act as IDs and hold a variety of other capabilities. The Euro was established as a unit of
exchange just 45 years ago in 1999 by the then-current members of the European Union, and formally entered circulation in 2002. From
2044 on, future generations will be able to see Euro coinage and banknotes only in museums.

“Automation and labor have revolutionized the economic and cultural landscape in
virtually all countries, and have set the stage for a new era of enduring prosperity, so
long as our world is equipped with the resources necessary to sustain itself.”

2. 2049: world population reaches 9 billion

In the summer of 2049, one of the hottest on record, the world population eclipsed 9 billion people, fueled primarily by growing Asian
and African birth rates. This massive milestone is arguably the most significant economic development of those discussed in this global
outlook report for a multitude of reasons, particularly with regards to labor and the international marketplace. Firstly, the growing
population has naturally resulted in an increase of the number of individuals who are of working age worldwide, therefore contributing
to an increase in the supply of labor. This consequence is essential, as it indicates that more individuals are seeking out jobs in the
workplace than ever before, and are attempting to contribute more to the labor force in many sectors of the economy.

However, at odds with this development is the increasing rate of automation of many of the more menial jobs in the global economy,
particularly those that require low levels of skill and can be classified accordingly as “primary” and “secondary”-level vocations. This
presents a uniquely imposing issue, as the majority of births occur in regions that tend to contribute most broadly to labor in these same
sectors. Therefore, there exists the following fundamental dilemma between the growing population and labor force and the equally
growing number of jobs being displaced by automation: as the labor supply has increased, the demand for individual laborers in the
relevant sectors has been decreasing dramatically.

In the short run, this leads to a surplus of workers, an increased percentage of

unemployed individuals, a decrease in the job participation rate, and an
WORLD POPULATION ESTIMATE
increased reliance on government services and aid to survive without a viable
source of income. In the long run, there will likely be shifts in the demand for
laborers in many of the most critical areas of the global economy, including
manufacturing, data analysis, and cargo transportation. As these labor markets
shift, individuals will be forced to learn and develop new skill sets to match the
ever-changing demands of the new technologically-driven world.

The global economy has managed to survive despite population growth due
to increases in consumerism and international trade. Free-market economic
policies have yielded gains from trade that have enabled technology
companies, the central suppliers of consumer-based purchases, to lower their
costs of production, and thus the prices they charge for their goods and
services. However, it is important to note that, while it is true that consumer
spending has accounted for more of the “Global Gross Domestic Product” over
time, the share of the population contributing to this increase has diminished. 3 % 2 % 1 % 0 % 0 % 1 % 2 % 3 %
As indicated by the global Gini coefficient of 0.57, economic inequality remains
9.1B
a pressing concern as the population rockets to greater numbers than ever
before.

Automation and labor have revolutionized the economic and cultural landscape in virtually all countries, and have set the stage for a
new era of enduring prosperity, so long as our world is equipped with the resources necessary to sustain itself.

3
Domestic Outlook
GDP and population growth surge as healthcare and governmental aid systems are strained
The United States of America has focused most prominently on retaining a thriving labor force to stimulate consumption, GNP and GDP
while working to minimize costs incurred by a growing population. These efforts are described below.

Population: 24 percent of the domestic population was over the age of 65 (classified as “elderly”) in 2038, with the total estimated U.S.
population estimated to be between 390 and 400 million individuals

The ratio of those classified as elderly to other segments of population has been steadily increasing since 1900 (4.1%) through 12.4% (2005)
and now to 20% in 2038. The elderly dependency ratio (EDR), defined as “the number of people above 65 compared to those who are
considered of working age (between 15 and 64)”, is currently measured at 34.7%. This marks an increase from 18.5% decades ago in 2005.
This indicates that, for each individual who is retired and is therefore out of the job search and employable demographic, there are now
approximately two workers in their place, compared to over four workers 30 years ago.

The difference in the EDR has naturally placed great economic strain and burden on the U.S. federal government and its benefit and
pension programs. More specifically, federal aid initiatives such as Medicare and Medicaid have been pushed to their limits regarding the
amount that can be provided given current debt levels (over USD $41 trillion). These, in addition to other similar welfare programs,
collectively put a great strain on domestic costs, with Medicare alone slated to amount to over 8.5% of GDP for 2050.

Argument for Validity: The numbers and estimates are based on the U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin from
the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as data gathered from the CIA World Factbook.

“In order for automation to coexist with labor in the age of AI, and a continuously
growing domestic population, systems will have to be put into place to ensure the
long-term economic survival and prosperity of individuals.”

As was discussed in the previous “International Report” section, population growth presents one of the most central issues to the
domestic economy. Economists and legislators have anticipated problems relating to job loss due to automation and AI turned out by
technological giants in California and New York City, the “Silicon Valley of the East”.

Some of the most popular vocations that have been automated over the
past fifty years include data entry keyers, accountants and auditors,
telemarketers, mathematical technicians, and transportation,
distribution, and cargo shipping managers, among the countless jobs
that have become nonexistent, and have therefore displaced many
millions of American laborers. However, some of the new efforts to
train workers who lost their jobs in these industries have proven useful.

Many of these individuals have developed skills for jobs that will
likely be in relatively high demand for decades to come, thus providing
them with a sustainable source of income, and enabling them to
contribute to the domestic economy.

As will be discussed in the following sections of this

economic outlook, automation and labor seem to
be largely at odds with one another. In order,
therefore, for automation to coexist with labor in the
age of technology, AI, and a continuously growing
domestic and international population, systems will
have to be put into place in the near future which
ensure the longevity and prosperity of individuals.
Job training, benefits programs, and advanced
assimilation methods will have to be employed in
order to facilitate the ongoing transition to a fully
automated world.

4
Transportation and Travel
New horizons in planetary exploration and global transport
The past fifty years have been marked by numerous technological advancements in global and interplanetary transportation. Some of
the most notable achievements include the following:

1. 2037: first hotel on the moon finally opened after two+ years of difficult construction

The “Lunar Lodge”, with rooms which offer the most unique view of any travel destination, costs over USD $3 million per person, per
night, with transportation via private “Lunar Shuttle” included in the cost. Residents are able to watch cable TV using satellite technology
beamed up from Earth. Due to the dangers that still remain surrounding travel into space, particularly when involving persons who have
not been specially trained in spaceflight, other astronauts accompany visitors to the hotel and back to ensure their utmost safety, and
maintain accommodations while residents are there. For this reason, no long-term staff or residents are living on the moon as of yet.

Argument: Commercial space flights will likely be more widely available in the late 2020s through companies like SpaceX and new
ventures such as Virgin Galactic. While these will likely not be long-term voyages, several organizations are already planning to put the
first humans on Mars by 2040, indicating that new trips to the moon will take place around 2022-2025. This knowledge, combined with
the increasing interest in space tourism, will likely lead to the eventual possibility to make a reservation on the moon.

“Economic growth has been stimulated greatly by space travel, and future
economic ventures aim to provide a greater percentage of the global
population with access to affordable transportation.”

2. 2041: first manned mission to Mars

Suborbital trips have been increasingly popular since the inception of the program decades prior to the first mission. Voyages into space
previously consisted solely of shipments of cargo and supplies to and from the moon during the building and testing process. With
decreased costs, the market has recently erupted with increased demand due to the announcement of the official Mars mission.
Furthermore, the increased volume of technological resources has fueled the outward shift in demand for space travel and tourism. The
presence of the new “Lunar Lodge”, the first operational hotel built on the moon, has resulted in relatively massive lines, and a growing
number of individuals on the waitlist who desire to traverse the final frontier.

Argument: Commercial space flights will likely be more widely available in the late 2020s through companies like SpaceX and new
ventures such as Virgin Galactic. While these will likely not be long-term voyages, several organizations are already planning to put the
first humans on Mars by 2030, indicating that new trips to the moon will take place around 2022-2025. The likely launch window will be
between late 2035 and early 2036, and decreased costs will generate a great interest in suborbital and interplanetary flights.

3. 2046: hydrogen-powered cars have taken over as the dominant form of ordinary civilian transportation

Governmental interventions and regulations have been provided to help make the transition as easy and affordable as possible for
those who do not yet have new vehicles, as hydrogen remains relatively expensive. The recent advancements in hydrogen technology
do not come as a surprise, as various nations and organizations have been conducting immense amounts of research and development
on hydrogen as a more sustainable form of power. Much of the power of numerous European countries is additionally produced through
electrolysis-based hydro- and geo-thermal power. The new hydrogen hybrids are also popular, and many are both autonomous and use
fuel cells. While hydrogen has made its way into consumer vehicles, marine fleets have not been able to keep pace with the rapidly
advancing technologies of land transportation, and thus remain gas guzzlers. However, both scientists and consumers are hopeful that
diesel engines will become virtually obsolete within the next 10-15 years. Contrastingly, some individuals still remain sentimental about
their antique gasoline cars, and have been saving them as relics of an inefficient past.

Argument: The estimate regarding the development of hydrogen-fueled cars is based on several different sources, notably the World
Economic Forum and the International Monetary Fund, as well as the CIA World Factbook, which offer a wealth of relevant information.

These, among many events, indicate much about the growing technology of the travel and transportation sector. Efforts to stimulate
economic growth through tourism and travel have been successful, and new business ventures are focusing on bringing more affordable
methods of transportation to impoverished regions of the globe.

In this new age of autonomous cars and extravagant vacation destinations (read: the moon),
many of the traditionally human-dominated tasks in these areas have been converted almost
entirely to mechanized labor and Artificial Intelligence devices, as will be described at length
on the following page. It is most critical to note here that autonomous vehicles are the dominant
form of day-to-day civilian transportation, and that this change has resulted in increased
efficiency while simultaneously displacing virtually all previous commercial drivers from work.

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Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Machine learning and advanced communications technologies jumpstart economic growth
Two of the most extraordinary feats in the history of the field of AI have been accomplished within the last 20 years. These two
innovations – a revolutionary information search system and a 24-hour personal psychologist – are enumerated in greater detail below.

1. 2032: Speech-reactive “search engine of the future”

With the advent of “Speak-and-Find”, the future has never looked more optimistic for the world of finding information. The speech-
reactive search engine can have in-depth conversations about what individuals are searching for, and is extremely insightful and
advanced. For example, if you want to know more about the current price of oil or a stock, Speak-and-Find asks if you want to know
things such as the current oil price, price changes and developments, or news relevant to the price. If you then say that you would like
to read news about oil, Speak-and-Find will ask you if you prefer a certain source for your information. Speak-and-Find can then direct
you to your source, or let you read the latest news related to the oil price from the most vetted and respected sources. Speak-and-Find
can additionally search for—and find—data on highly specialized and obscure subjects, such as identifying the countless components
of operational machinery used in the manufacturing of various technological items. The engine is not algorithm-based when aggregating
search results and website data, and instead relies on “humanized” input to determine what to display to users.

Future AI technology is aimed at using online knowledge to create user-customized tutorials. For instance, need help learning how to
repair your new hydro-car? Speak-and-Find will eventually compile details and drafts an instruction sheet that guides you through your
exact problem. In a less serious context, the search engine will also be able to act as a personal comedian that knows all jokes on the
internet, and one that can get smarter the more information it is provided.

Argument: Artificial intelligence will come to full fruition between 2020 and 2030, at which point it is likely to assume that computers
and machine learning algorithms will be close in knowledge level to the human brain. Today, search engines are used all over the world,
and when combined with AI, will dramatically alter the methods by which information is created, gathered, and catalogued.

“Advancements in Artificial Intelligence have jumpstarted economic growth

by enabling the easier and more satisfactory dissemination of information,
resources, and services.”

2. 2043: personalized AI therapy

Popularization of 24-hour personalized therapist that remembers everything you tell it, and is completely confidential. The assistant
maintains a library of all current knowledge relevant to whatever you tell it (ex. psychology, sociology, health, etc.). The therapist – called
“Artemis” after the project that created the original system – is made possible through advancements in AI and automated speech, and
has been backed by numerous governments to increase affordability and access. The project is a partnership between the two dominant
forces in technology – Apple and Google – and both companies promise no surveillance and assure absolute privacy, a topic remains a
difficult issue for many governmental relations at the local, state, and federal levels. In a statement released by the companies at the
time of the product launch, it is stated that “anything said by the patient is carefully processed and calculated to ensure the proper
response, a process which occurs at speeds naturally equal to that of human psychologists and therapists”.

Artemis is practically indistinguishable from a “real” human therapist, can handle any and all issues, and is sufficiently able to discern
between prevarication and honesty. Artemis is accessible both online and offline from any personalized phone number. Users can
choose to speak to a man or woman, or individuals who identify as other genders. Conversations are entirely anonymous, and records
can only be kept if they add to the knowledge base for human behavior, which develops using advanced machine learning programs
and neural networks.

Jobs: however, human therapists not entirely at risk of losing jobs, as interpersonal interaction remains extremely significant and
important and valuable. While it is true that Artemis collectively possesses all the knowledge necessary to act as a psychologist, and is
additionally able to adjust and adapt in virtually all conceivable scenarios, it is not a three-dimensional system. While In the future Artemis
may be at least two-dimensional, as project scientists at Apple and Google are working on developing an animated version, the system
cannot currently provide the ineffable qualities and characteristics unique to physical humans.

Argument: Artificial intelligence will come to full fruition between 2020 and 2030, at which point it is likely to assume that computers
and machine learning algorithms will be close in knowledge level to the human brain. Humans will then be capable of communicating
with automated “people” that understand what we say, and that are able to provide human-like responses.

Advancements in Artificial Intelligence have jumpstarted economic growth by enabling the easier and more satisfactory dissemination
of information, resources, and services. As will be discussed in the “Implications” section, these advances yield mixed outcomes for the
global economy and the future of autonomy and technology.

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Implications of AI and Future Prospects
What does this mean for the domestic and international labor markets, and for the future of
automation and technology?
Our world has grown more significantly, with regard to both innovations and sheer numbers of citizens, than it has in any
century prior. Advancements in transportation and AI have been fueled by economic growth stemming most prominently
from developments in autonomy and technology. These two forces have combined to yield a collectively higher volume
of new tools and resources than has occurred in prior generations. Furthermore, the degree to which these innovations
have impacted the labor market is profound; new systems of vocational training have been implemented alongside a
large-scale restructuring of the global economy.

One of the most prominent potential benefits in human-to-human relationships—specifically when considering the fact
that society is heading to a future largely dominated and shaped by highly sophisticated and autonomous machines—is
the reassurance that traditional methods of communication have been ingrained in the human genome to the degree that
it is likely they will persist and thrive despite the overwhelming presence of digital media across the developed world.
With the constant barrage of media informing citizens of the dangers of “hypersociality” and the dangers of growing too
involved in social media and the digital realm, it seems plausible that humans will continue to desire physical interpersonal
interactions. However, a directly related challenge presents itself as the world heads into this brave new world: how are
humans going to exist as a species in relation to technology, and how will they work? The exploration of this question will
fundamentally determine the course of modern human history, influencing all aspects of daily living and dramatically
impacting generations of humans and laborers.

“Humanity is on the brink of numerous fundamental changes, driven

largely by the aforementioned ideas of autonomy and technology. When
developed in conjunction with one another, these two forces will prove
unstoppable in their pursuit of a more advanced society.”

As was previously noted, the concepts of autonomy and technology are central to the future development of the global
economy, and additionally influence all aspects of humanity and society. The complex manners in which individuals will
be able to interact with their environment will be fundamentally changed by the introduction of new technologies into the
global marketplace. Hydrogen-powered cars will shape the ways we travel and communicate with others, while voyages
to the moon and other planets within our immediate region of the solar system will continue to expand our curiousity and
knowledge of the cosmos.

Furthermore, the entire realm of data collection, storage, and management will likely change due to advancements in
machine learning algorithms and AI technologies, which will consequently increase productivity and economy efficiency.
Basic search engines will utilize these technologies to aggregate user-generated data to provide a more intelligent way
to browse data from all around the World Wide Web, while personal therapists will guide individuals at any time of day
in their endeavors, and serve as helpful friends and confidants, all while existing as machines.

However, these fantastical benefits are not without cost. The toll taken on both the domestic and international labor
markets will be immense, and it will require many years – and likely decades – to combat and mitigate the issue. A rapidly
increasing population puts a greater economic burden on federal governments to provide for and support their citizenry.
Such a notion appears fundamentally at odds with the desire to automate as many jobs as possible to cut costs and
stimulate the economy. As more jobs are automated, less labor is demanded, and therefore less individuals are able to
work, increasing the strain on the national governments and perpetuating the cycle.

In order to maintain the highest likelihood of economic survival and prosperity, the nations of the world at large must
begin now in order to most adequately prepare for the impending revolutions in the labor market due to automation.
Humanity is on the brink of numerous fundamental changes, driven largely by the aforementioned ideas of autonomy
and technology. When developed in conjunction with one another, these two forces will prove unstoppable in their pursuit
of a more advanced society. It is therefore up to the citizens of our current world to think critically about the actions we
may take, and to severely contemplate the nature of the future we wish to create.

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