Periodo Demanda Sencillo Demanda Estándar Demanda Edición

Nº Año (Mes) Limitada

1 -11
2 -10
3 -9
4 -8
5 -7
6 -6
7 -5
8 -4
9 -3
10 -2
11 -1
12 0
1 1 28,596 28,958 16,266
2 2 33,245 26,514 16,085

3 3 35,664 26,856 15,204

4 4 36,562 24,040 15,432

5 5 38,384 25,739 13,103
6 2013 6 36,827 25,715 15,218
7 7 36,188 27,880 12,675
8 8 40,311 26,464 14,508
9 9 35,942 26,994 13,468
10 10 41,227 23,879 14,684
11 11 41,207 24,501 13,610
12 12 34,916 23,994 13,201
13 1 33,287 26,906 12,670
14 2 36,058 27,023 11,648
15 3 32,296 25,279 13,846
16 4 32,089 26,630 13,571
17 5 38,158 27,518 12,679
18 6 38,946 27,445 11,461
2014
19 7 32,487 28,070 11,989
20 8 39,938 27,243 11,795
21 9 36,844 26,807 11,248
22 10 38,393 27,744 10,422
23 11 36,939 25,813 12,254
24 12 36,756 25,188 11,964
25 1 40,016 23,760 10,212
26 2 34,670 31,205 9,421
27 3 32,801 28,526 9,791
28 4 33,238 28,851 9,929

2015
29 5 35,835 28,065 10,377
30 6 36,786 23,550 10,359
2015
31 7 34,113 26,123 10,454
32 8 36,208 23,881 9,362
33 9 40,991 26,943 10,867
34 10 38,756 26,328 9,210
35 11 36,807 25,170 8,745
36 12 37,777 29,322 8,505
37 1 36,184 25,987 8,363
38 2 39,737 28,082 8,718
39 3 36,484 24,045 7,809
40 4 38,504 27,197 8,913
41 5 39,659 24,450 8,572
42 6 40,066 27,178 8,611
2016
43 7 34,039 22,882 9,804
44 8 39,532 22,781 7,890
45 9 39,478 26,022 7,568
46 10 36,901 24,619 7,663
47 11 36,770 27,094 8,585
48 12 35,265 26,791 6,618
49 1 34,290 28,857 7,609
50 2 33,521 27,784 6,761
51 3 36,173 28,577 6,967
52 4 35,964 23,416 6,706
53 5 36,704 24,715 6,744
54 6 38,156 24,686 7,332
2017
55 7 33,738 22,901 7,795
56 8 41,687 26,007 6,278
57 9 34,485 23,344 7,164
58 10 36,687 28,102 5,726
59 11 35,077 28,089 5,361
60 12 41,188 24,192 4,078
61 1 35,310 23,589 4,642
62 2
63 3
64 2018 4
65 5
66 6
67 7

90,000

80,000

f(x) = - 155.8377535427x + 77855.3306497175

90,000

80,000

f(x) = - 155.8377535427x + 77855.3306497175

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3
Dt Yt Dt/Yt St Gt Ct Ct Norm. Ft

0.82 0.98
0.84 1.00
0.82 0.98
0.82 0.98
0.84 1.01
0.85 1.02
0.80 0.96
0.86 1.03
0.84 1.01
0.85 1.02
0.84 1.01
77,519.00 147.97 0.83 1.00
73,820 77,371.03 0.95 77,223.05 74.69 10.01 0.98 76,114.90
75,844 77,223.06 0.98 77,309.38 76.61 1.00 77,663.03

77,724 77,075.09 1.01 77,382.54 76.04 0.98 75,768.06

76,034 76,927.12 0.99 77,483.52 80.16 0.98 76,129.50

77,226 76,779.15 1.01 77,690.33 101.07 1.01 78,401.05
77,760 76,631.18 1.01 77,683.35 83.23 1.02 79,173.92
76,743 76,483.21 1.00 77,470.34 34.33 0.96 74,720.25
81,283 76,335.24 1.06 78,393.54 181.06 1.03 79,503.52
76,404 76,187.27 1.00 78,061.80 96.41 1.01 79,515.35
79,790 76,039.30 1.05 78,244.41 110.64 1.02 79,721.80
79,318 75,891.33 1.05 78,280.77 98.38 1.01 79,160.17
72,111 75,743.36 0.95 77,501.63 - 46.47 1.00 78,056.63
72,863 75,595.39 0.96 76,917.35 - 135.25 0.98 75,907.32
74,729 75,447.42 0.99 76,715.77 - 146.20 1.00 77,144.95
71,421 75,299.45 0.95 75,882.19 - 259.67 0.98 74,968.71
72,290 75,151.48 0.96 75,398.33 - 296.67 0.98 74,324.95
78,355 75,003.51 1.04 75,680.84 - 201.07 1.01 75,912.44
77,852 74,855.54 1.04 75,672.87 - 169.19 1.02 76,821.20
72,546 74,707.57 0.97 74,974.23 - 256.59 0.96 72,546.00
78,976 74,559.60 1.06 75,654.88 - 101.88 1.03 76,644.61
74,899 74,411.63 1.01 75,235.03 - 154.37 1.01 76,457.58
76,559 74,263.66 1.03 75,152.39 - 142.53 1.02 76,582.68
75,006 74,115.69 1.01 74,825.01 - 173.04 1.01 75,780.61
73,908 73,967.72 1.00 74,464.52 - 203.98 1.00 74,344.79
73,988 73,819.75 1.00 74,264.69 - 203.30 0.98 72,776.53
75,296 73,671.78 1.02 74,408.56 - 145.99 1.00 74,411.38
71,118 73,523.81 0.97 73,826.53 - 217.97 0.98 72,709.94
72,018 73,375.84 0.98 73,601.96 - 219.06 0.98 72,345.55
74,277 73,227.87 1.01 73,657.48 - 173.73 1.01 74,175.13
70,695 73,079.90 0.97 73,039.60 - 247.05 1.02 74,789.71
70,690 72,931.93 0.97 72,374.33 - 316.08 0.96 69,941.07
69,451 72,783.96 0.95 72,086.36 - 311.44 1.03 73,916.64
78,801 72,635.99 1.08 72,407.19 - 207.07 1.01 72,634.25
74,294 72,488.02 1.02 72,352.38 - 181.94 1.02 73,644.51
70,722 72,340.05 0.98 71,815.07 - 240.60 1.01 72,912.01
75,604 72,192.08 1.05 71,983.12 - 173.15 1.00 71,279.95
70,534 72,044.11 0.98 71,686.58 - 193.51 0.98 70,374.94
76,537 71,896.14 1.06 72,320.82 - 56.88 1.00 71,830.91
68,338 71,748.17 0.95 71,731.62 - 144.75 0.98 70,753.11
74,614 71,600.20 1.04 72,165.95 - 49.16 0.98 70,358.55
72,681 71,452.23 1.02 72,346.54 - 11.23 1.01 72,895.36
75,855 71,304.26 1.06 72,674.89 44.82 1.02 73,620.85
66,725 71,156.29 0.94 71,822.36 - 103.30 0.96 69,871.08
70,203 71,008.32 0.99 71,887.77 - 75.46 1.03 73,568.70
73,068 70,860.35 1.03 71,739.45 - 87.48 1.01 72,672.10
69,183 70,712.38 0.98 71,239.94 - 155.50 1.02 73,085.39
72,449 70,564.41 1.03 71,077.38 - 156.66 1.01 71,814.86
68,674 70,416.44 0.98 70,551.60 - 217.59 1.00 70,628.89
70,756 70,268.47 1.01 70,423.53 - 202.81 0.98 68,928.47
68,066 70,120.50 0.97 70,124.62 - 218.68 1.00 70,552.56
71,717 69,972.53 1.02 70,090.65 - 188.19 0.98 68,444.40
66,086 69,824.56 0.95 69,601.00 - 237.95 0.98 68,703.03
68,163 69,676.59 0.98 69,361.79 - 238.16 1.01 70,111.88
70,174 69,528.62 1.01 69,161.38 - 231.93 1.02 70,352.11
64,434 69,380.65 0.93 68,225.02 - 348.21 0.96 66,229.30
73,972 69,232.68 1.07 69,018.70 - 159.72 1.03 69,627.36
64,993 69,084.71 0.94 68,169.66 - 273.50 1.01 69,683.41
70,515 68,936.74 1.02 68,119.82 - 236.58 1.02 69,254.45
68,527 68,788.77 1.00 67,795.47 - 251.07 1.01 68,580.76
69,458 68,640.80 1.01 67,695.70 - 226.10 1.00 67,266.47
63,541 68,492.83 0.93 67,010.13 - 301.94 0.98 66,121.31
67,023.43
65,017.88
64,970.05
66,512.76
66,664.51
62,644.49
 Column H
Linear (Column

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
 Et |Et|

Alpha 0.12533041
Betta 0.165070244
Gamma 0

2,294.9 2,294.9 0.031

1,819.0 1,819.0 0.024

- 1,955.9 1,955.9 0.025

95.5 95.5 0.001

1,175.0 1,175.0 0.015
1,414.2 1,414.2 0.018
- 2,022.7 2,022.7 0.026
- 1,779.5 1,779.5 0.022
3,111.3 3,111.3 0.041
- 68.2 68.2 0.001
- 157.8 157.8 0.002
5,945.6 5,945.6 0.082
3,044.3 3,044.3 0.042
2,415.9 2,415.9 0.032
3,547.7 3,547.7 0.050
2,035.0 2,035.0 0.028
- 2,442.6 2,442.6 0.031
- 1,030.8 1,030.8 0.013 PERSECUCIÓN
- 0.0 0.0 0.000 t Mes Nt Dt
- 2,331.4 2,331.4 0.030 1 62 17 67,023
1,558.6 1,558.6 0.021 2 63 21 65,018
23.9 23.9 0.000 3 64 19 64,970
774.6 774.6 0.010 4 65 21 66,513
436.8 436.8 0.006 5 66 20 66,465
- 1,211.5 1,211.5 0.016 6 67 18 62,644
- 884.6 884.6 0.012
1,591.9 1,591.9 0.022
327.5 327.5 0.005 t Wt Ft Ht
- 101.9 101.9 0.001 0 40
4,094.7 4,094.7 0.058 1 48 0 8
- 748.9 748.9 0.011 2 39 9 0
4,465.6 4,465.6 0.064 3 43 0 4
- 6,166.7 6,166.7 0.078 4 40 3 0
- 649.5 649.5 0.009 5 42 0 2
2,190.0 2,190.0 0.031 6 44 0 2
- 4,324.1 4,324.1 0.057
- 159.1 159.1 0.002
- 4,706.1 4,706.1 0.061
2,415.1 2,415.1 0.035
- 4,255.5 4,255.5 0.057
214.4 214.4 0.003
- 2,234.1 2,234.1 0.029
3,146.1 3,146.1 0.047
3,365.7 3,365.7 0.048
- 395.9 395.9 0.005
3,902.4 3,902.4 0.056
- 634.1 634.1 0.009
1,954.9 1,954.9 0.028
- 1,827.5 1,827.5 0.026
2,486.6 2,486.6 0.037
- 3,272.6 3,272.6 0.046
2,617.0 2,617.0 0.040
1,948.9 1,948.9 0.029
177.9 177.9 0.003
1,795.3 1,795.3 0.028
- 4,344.6 4,344.6 0.059
4,690.4 4,690.4 0.072
- 1,260.6 1,260.6 0.018
53.8 53.8 0.001
- 2,191.5 2,191.5 0.032
2,580.3 2,580.3 0.041

MAPE= 2.83%
 Column H
Linear (Column H)

56 57 58 59 60
 Fuerza laboral Producción
C H-H 3100 c/u
Ch 500000 <10 c/u
Ch 750000 >10 v/u
solo cuando se c faltantes ultimo
C Cap 100000 contrata periodo
Cf 950000 C fund

Cap Bodega
Wo 40
10<W<55

sencillo estandar limitada

Inv. 0 1000 750 250
Inv. 5 150 50

Knt Wt
1360 47.6999496
1680 38.82157362
1520 42.8660326
1680 39.92129772
1600 41.95861614
1440 43.98633138

Knt Pt Pac Dt Dac It

 2000
1360 64841 64841 67023 67023 0
1680 65165 130006 65018 132041 0
1520 65007 195013 64970 197011 2
1680 66936 261949 66513 263524 425
1600 67044 328993 66465 329989 1205
1440 63240 392233 62644 392633 1800
Producción
700 <8000
550 >800
8100

7850

3000 X und

2500

V/U 5 7290

Faltantes Almacenados en Bodega Bodega extra Costo It Costo Faltantes

182 0 0 $ - $ 873,600
35 0 0 $ - $ 168,000
0 2 0 $ 973 $ -
0 425 0 $ 212,595 $ -
0 1205 0 $ 602,342 $ -
0 1800 0 $ 900,098 $ -
 Inventarios
cFaltantes 4800 xperiodo
C Almac. 500 X und
C Almac. 650 X und adicional

C fijo 24500 X mes Bodega adicional

Horario 8 horas/día
K 10 U/hora
K 80 u/día

Estandar
100

Costo Bodega Extra x unidadcosto bodega extra Costo de subcontratar

$ - $ -
$ - $ -
$ - $ -
$ - $ -
$ - $ -
$ - $ - $ -

F.O $ 2,757,608 RESPUESTA

 Periodo Demanda Sencillo Demanda Estándar Demanda Edición
Nº Año (Mes) Limitada
1 -11
2 -10
3 -9
4 -8
5 -7
6 -6
7 -5
8 -4
9 -3
10 -2
11 -1
12 0
1 1 28,596 28,958 16,266
2 2 33,245 26,514 16,085

3 3 35,664 26,856 15,204

4 4 36,562 24,040 15,432

5 5 38,384 25,739 13,103
6 2013 6 36,827 25,715 15,218
7 7 36,188 27,880 12,675
8 8 40,311 26,464 14,508
9 9 35,942 26,994 13,468
10 10 41,227 23,879 14,684
11 11 41,207 24,501 13,610
12 12 34,916 23,994 13,201
13 1 33,287 26,906 12,670
14 2 36,058 27,023 11,648
15 3 32,296 25,279 13,846
16 4 32,089 26,630 13,571
17 5 38,158 27,518 12,679
18 6 38,946 27,445 11,461
2014
19 7 32,487 28,070 11,989
20 8 39,938 27,243 11,795
21 9 36,844 26,807 11,248
22 10 38,393 27,744 10,422
23 11 36,939 25,813 12,254
24 12 36,756 25,188 11,964
25 1 40,016 23,760 10,212
26 2 34,670 31,205 9,421
27 3 32,801 28,526 9,791
28 4 33,238 28,851 9,929

2015
29 5 35,835 28,065 10,377
30 6 36,786 23,550 10,359
2015
31 7 34,113 26,123 10,454
32 8 36,208 23,881 9,362
33 9 40,991 26,943 10,867
34 10 38,756 26,328 9,210
35 11 36,807 25,170 8,745
36 12 37,777 29,322 8,505
37 1 36,184 25,987 8,363
38 2 39,737 28,082 8,718
39 3 36,484 24,045 7,809
40 4 38,504 27,197 8,913
41 5 39,659 24,450 8,572
42 6 40,066 27,178 8,611
2016
43 7 34,039 22,882 9,804
44 8 39,532 22,781 7,890
45 9 39,478 26,022 7,568
46 10 36,901 24,619 7,663
47 11 36,770 27,094 8,585
48 12 35,265 26,791 6,618
49 1 34,290 28,857 7,609
50 2 33,521 27,784 6,761
51 3 36,173 28,577 6,967
52 4 35,964 23,416 6,706
53 5 36,704 24,715 6,744
54 6 38,156 24,686 7,332
2017
55 7 33,738 22,901 7,795
56 8 41,687 26,007 6,278
57 9 34,485 23,344 7,164
58 10 36,687 28,102 5,726
59 11 35,077 28,089 5,361
60 12 41,188 24,192 4,078
61 1 35,310 23,589 4,642
62 2
63 3
64 2018 4
65 5
66 6
67 7

90,000

80,000

f(x) = - 155.8377535427x + 77855.3306497175

90,000

80,000

f(x) = - 155.8377535427x + 77855.3306497175

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3
Dt Yt Dt/Yt St Gt Ct Ct Norm. Ft

0.82 0.98
0.84 1.00
0.82 0.98
0.82 0.98
0.84 1.01
0.85 1.02
0.80 0.96
0.86 1.03
0.84 1.01
0.85 1.02
0.84 1.01
77,519.00 147.97 0.83 1.00
73,820 77,371.03 0.95 77,223.05 74.69 10.01 0.98 76,114.90
75,844 77,223.06 0.98 77,309.38 76.61 1.00 77,663.03

77,724 77,075.09 1.01 77,382.54 76.04 0.98 75,768.06

76,034 76,927.12 0.99 77,483.52 80.16 0.98 76,129.50

77,226 76,779.15 1.01 77,690.33 101.07 1.01 78,401.05
77,760 76,631.18 1.01 77,683.35 83.23 1.02 79,173.92
76,743 76,483.21 1.00 77,470.34 34.33 0.96 74,720.25
81,283 76,335.24 1.06 78,393.54 181.06 1.03 79,503.52
76,404 76,187.27 1.00 78,061.80 96.41 1.01 79,515.35
79,790 76,039.30 1.05 78,244.41 110.64 1.02 79,721.80
79,318 75,891.33 1.05 78,280.77 98.38 1.01 79,160.17
72,111 75,743.36 0.95 77,501.63 - 46.47 1.00 78,056.63
72,863 75,595.39 0.96 76,917.35 - 135.25 0.98 75,907.32
74,729 75,447.42 0.99 76,715.77 - 146.20 1.00 77,144.95
71,421 75,299.45 0.95 75,882.19 - 259.67 0.98 74,968.71
72,290 75,151.48 0.96 75,398.33 - 296.67 0.98 74,324.95
78,355 75,003.51 1.04 75,680.84 - 201.07 1.01 75,912.44
77,852 74,855.54 1.04 75,672.87 - 169.19 1.02 76,821.20
72,546 74,707.57 0.97 74,974.23 - 256.59 0.96 72,546.00
78,976 74,559.60 1.06 75,654.88 - 101.88 1.03 76,644.61
74,899 74,411.63 1.01 75,235.03 - 154.37 1.01 76,457.58
76,559 74,263.66 1.03 75,152.39 - 142.53 1.02 76,582.68
75,006 74,115.69 1.01 74,825.01 - 173.04 1.01 75,780.61
73,908 73,967.72 1.00 74,464.52 - 203.98 1.00 74,344.79
73,988 73,819.75 1.00 74,264.69 - 203.30 0.98 72,776.53
75,296 73,671.78 1.02 74,408.56 - 145.99 1.00 74,411.38
71,118 73,523.81 0.97 73,826.53 - 217.97 0.98 72,709.94
72,018 73,375.84 0.98 73,601.96 - 219.06 0.98 72,345.55
74,277 73,227.87 1.01 73,657.48 - 173.73 1.01 74,175.13
70,695 73,079.90 0.97 73,039.60 - 247.05 1.02 74,789.71
70,690 72,931.93 0.97 72,374.33 - 316.08 0.96 69,941.07
69,451 72,783.96 0.95 72,086.36 - 311.44 1.03 73,916.64
78,801 72,635.99 1.08 72,407.19 - 207.07 1.01 72,634.25
74,294 72,488.02 1.02 72,352.38 - 181.94 1.02 73,644.51
70,722 72,340.05 0.98 71,815.07 - 240.60 1.01 72,912.01
75,604 72,192.08 1.05 71,983.12 - 173.15 1.00 71,279.95
70,534 72,044.11 0.98 71,686.58 - 193.51 0.98 70,374.94
76,537 71,896.14 1.06 72,320.82 - 56.88 1.00 71,830.91
68,338 71,748.17 0.95 71,731.62 - 144.75 0.98 70,753.11
74,614 71,600.20 1.04 72,165.95 - 49.16 0.98 70,358.55
72,681 71,452.23 1.02 72,346.54 - 11.23 1.01 72,895.36
75,855 71,304.26 1.06 72,674.89 44.82 1.02 73,620.85
66,725 71,156.29 0.94 71,822.36 - 103.30 0.96 69,871.08
70,203 71,008.32 0.99 71,887.77 - 75.46 1.03 73,568.70
73,068 70,860.35 1.03 71,739.45 - 87.48 1.01 72,672.10
69,183 70,712.38 0.98 71,239.94 - 155.50 1.02 73,085.39
72,449 70,564.41 1.03 71,077.38 - 156.66 1.01 71,814.86
68,674 70,416.44 0.98 70,551.60 - 217.59 1.00 70,628.89
70,756 70,268.47 1.01 70,423.53 - 202.81 0.98 68,928.47
68,066 70,120.50 0.97 70,124.62 - 218.68 1.00 70,552.56
71,717 69,972.53 1.02 70,090.65 - 188.19 0.98 68,444.40
66,086 69,824.56 0.95 69,601.00 - 237.95 0.98 68,703.03
68,163 69,676.59 0.98 69,361.79 - 238.16 1.01 70,111.88
70,174 69,528.62 1.01 69,161.38 - 231.93 1.02 70,352.11
64,434 69,380.65 0.93 68,225.02 - 348.21 0.96 66,229.30
73,972 69,232.68 1.07 69,018.70 - 159.72 1.03 69,627.36
64,993 69,084.71 0.94 68,169.66 - 273.50 1.01 69,683.41
70,515 68,936.74 1.02 68,119.82 - 236.58 1.02 69,254.45
68,527 68,788.77 1.00 67,795.47 - 251.07 1.01 68,580.76
69,458 68,640.80 1.01 67,695.70 - 226.10 1.00 67,266.47
63,541 68,492.83 0.93 67,010.13 - 301.94 0.98 66,121.31
67,023.43
65,017.88
64,970.05
66,512.76
66,664.51
62,644.49
 Column H
Linear (Column

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
 Et |Et|

Alpha 0.12533041
Betta 0.165070244
Gamma 0

2,294.9 2,294.9 0.031

1,819.0 1,819.0 0.024

- 1,955.9 1,955.9 0.025

95.5 95.5 0.001

1,175.0 1,175.0 0.015
1,414.2 1,414.2 0.018
- 2,022.7 2,022.7 0.026
- 1,779.5 1,779.5 0.022
3,111.3 3,111.3 0.041
- 68.2 68.2 0.001
- 157.8 157.8 0.002
5,945.6 5,945.6 0.082
3,044.3 3,044.3 0.042
2,415.9 2,415.9 0.032
3,547.7 3,547.7 0.050
2,035.0 2,035.0 0.028
- 2,442.6 2,442.6 0.031
- 1,030.8 1,030.8 0.013 ESTRATEGIA DE NIVELACIÓN
- 0.0 0.0 0.000 t Mes Días nt Dt
- 2,331.4 2,331.4 0.030 1 62 17 67023
1,558.6 1,558.6 0.021 2 63 21 65018
23.9 23.9 0.000 3 64 19 64970
774.6 774.6 0.010 4 65 21 66513
436.8 436.8 0.006 5 66 20 66665
- 1,211.5 1,211.5 0.016 6 67 18 62644
- 884.6 884.6 0.012
1,591.9 1,591.9 0.022
327.5 327.5 0.005 t Wt Ft Ht
- 101.9 101.9 0.001 0 40
4,094.7 4,094.7 0.058 1 43 0 3
- 748.9 748.9 0.011 2 43 0 0
4,465.6 4,465.6 0.064 3 43 0 0
- 6,166.7 6,166.7 0.078 4 43 0 0
- 649.5 649.5 0.009 5 43 0 0
2,190.0 2,190.0 0.031 6 43 0 0
- 4,324.1 4,324.1 0.057
- 159.1 159.1 0.002
- 4,706.1 4,706.1 0.061
2,415.1 2,415.1 0.035
- 4,255.5 4,255.5 0.057
214.4 214.4 0.003
- 2,234.1 2,234.1 0.029
3,146.1 3,146.1 0.047
3,365.7 3,365.7 0.048
- 395.9 395.9 0.005
3,902.4 3,902.4 0.056
- 634.1 634.1 0.009
1,954.9 1,954.9 0.028
- 1,827.5 1,827.5 0.026
2,486.6 2,486.6 0.037
- 3,272.6 3,272.6 0.046
2,617.0 2,617.0 0.040
1,948.9 1,948.9 0.029
177.9 177.9 0.003
1,795.3 1,795.3 0.028
- 4,344.6 4,344.6 0.059
4,690.4 4,690.4 0.072
- 1,260.6 1,260.6 0.018
53.8 53.8 0.001
- 2,191.5 2,191.5 0.032
2,580.3 2,580.3 0.041

MAPE= 2.83%
 Column H
Linear (Column H)

56 57 58 59 60
 Fuerza laboral Producción
C H-H 3100 c/u
Ch 500000 <10 c/u
Ch 750000 >10 v/u
solo cuando se c faltantes ultimo
C Cap 100000 contrata periodo
Cf 950000 C fund

Cap Bodega
Wo 40
10<W<55

sencillo estandar limitada

Inv. 0 1000 750 250
Inv. 5 150 50

Wt
42
42
42.49727742
42.49727742
42.49727742
42.49727742

Knt Pt Pac Dt Dac It

 2000
1360 58174.30709 58174.30709 67023 67023 0
1680 71862.37935 130036.6864 65018 132041 0
1520 65018.34322 195055.0297 64970 197011 44
1680 71862.37935 266917.409 66513 263524 5394
1600 68440.36129 335357.7703 66665 330189 7170
1440 61596.32516 396954.0955 62644 392833 6122
Producción
700 <8000
550 >800
8100

7850

3000 X und

2500

V/U 5 7290

Faltantes Almacenados en Bodega Bodega extra Costo It Costo Faltantes

6849 0 0 $ - $ 32,875,200
4 0 0 $ - $ 19,200
0 44 0 $ 22,145 $ -
0 2500 2894 $ 1,250,000 $ -
0 2500 4670 $ 1,250,000 $ -
0 2500 3622 $ 1,250,000 $ -
 Inventarios
cFaltantes 4800 xperiodo
C Almac. 500 X und
C Almac. 650 X und adicional

C fijo 24500 X mes Bodega adicional

Horario 8 horas/día
K 10 U/hora
K 80 u/día

Estandar
100

Costo Bodega Extra x unidadcosto bodega extra Costo de subcontratar

$ - $ -
$ - $ -
$ - $ -
$ 1,881,043 $ 24,500
$ 3,035,349 $ 24,500
$ 2,354,043 $ 24,500 $ -

F.O $ 44,010,480
 Demanda Sencillo Demanda Estándar Demanda Edición Lim
Periodo Año Demanda Periodo Año Demanda Periodo
(Mes) (unidades) (Mes) (unidades) (Mes)
1 1 2013 28596 1 2013 28958 1
2 2 2013 33245 2 2013 26514 2
3 3 2013 35664 3 2013 26856 3
4 4 2013 36562 4 2013 24040 4
5 5 2013 38384 5 2013 25739 5
6 6 2013 36827 6 2013 25715 6
7 7 2013 36188 7 2013 27880 7
8 8 2013 40311 8 2013 26464 8
9 9 2013 35942 9 2013 26994 9
10 10 2013 41227 10 2013 23879 10
11 11 2013 41207 11 2013 24501 11
12 12 2013 34916 12 2013 23994 12
13 1 2014 33287 1 2014 26906 1
14 2 2014 36058 2 2014 27023 2
15 3 2014 32296 3 2014 25279 3
16 4 2014 32089 4 2014 26630 4
17 5 2014 38158 5 2014 27518 5
18 6 2014 38946 6 2014 27445 6
19 7 2014 32487 7 2014 28070 7
20 8 2014 39938 8 2014 27243 8
21 9 2014 36844 9 2014 26807 9
22 10 2014 38393 10 2014 27744 10
23 11 2014 36939 11 2014 25813 11
24 12 2014 36756 12 2014 25188 12
25 1 2015 40016 1 2015 23760 1
26 2 2015 34670 2 2015 31205 2
27 3 2015 32801 3 2015 28526 3
28 4 2015 33238 4 2015 28851 4
29 5 2015 35835 5 2015 28065 5
30 6 2015 36786 6 2015 23550 6
31 7 2015 34113 7 2015 26123 7
32 8 2015 36208 8 2015 23881 8
33 9 2015 40991 9 2015 26943 9
34 10 2015 38756 10 2015 26328 10
35 11 2015 36807 11 2015 25170 11
36 12 2015 37777 12 2015 29322 12
37 1 2016 36184 1 2016 25987 1
38 2 2016 39737 2 2016 28082 2
39 3 2016 36484 3 2016 24045 3
40 4 2016 38504 4 2016 27197 4
41 5 2016 39659 5 2016 24450 5
42 6 2016 40066 6 2016 27178 6
43 7 2016 34039 7 2016 22882 7
44 8 2016 39532 8 2016 22781 8
45 9 2016 39478 9 2016 26022 9
46 10 2016 36901 10 2016 24619 10
47 11 2016 36770 11 2016 27094 11
48 12 2016 35265 12 2016 26791 12
49 1 2017 34290 1 2017 28857 1
50 2 2017 33521 2 2017 27784 2
51 3 2017 36173 3 2017 28577 3
52 4 2017 35964 4 2017 23416 4
53 5 2017 36704 5 2017 24715 5
54 6 2017 38156 6 2017 24686 6
55 7 2017 33738 7 2017 22901 7
56 8 2017 41687 8 2017 26007 8
57 9 2017 34485 9 2017 23344 9
58 10 2017 36687 10 2017 28102 10
59 11 2017 35077 11 2017 28089 11
60 12 2017 41188 12 2017 24192 12
61 1 2018 35310 1 2018 23589 1

Demanda sencillo
45000

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Demanda estándar
35000

30000

25000
 Demanda estándar
35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Demanda Edición Limitada

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Demanda Edición Limitada

Año Demanda Demanda Dem

(unidades) Agregada
2013 16266 1 73820 90000
2013 16085 2 75844 80000

2013 15204 3 77724 70000

60000
2013 15432 4 76034
50000
2013 13103 5 77226
40000
2013 15218 6 77760
30000
2013 12675 7 76743
20000
2013 14508 8 81283
10000
2013 13468 9 76404
0
2013 14684 10 79790 0 10 20
2013 13610 11 79318
2013 13201 12 72111
2014 12670 13 72863 St Gt
2014 11648 14 74729 78012.977459016 -163.465825
2014 13846 15 71421
2014 13571 16 72290
2014 12679 17 78355 Dt
2014 11461 18 77852 1 -11
2014 11989 19 72546 2 -10
2014 11795 20 78976 3 -9
2014 11248 21 74899 4 -8
2014 10422 22 76559 5 -7
2014 12254 23 75006 6 -6
2014 11964 24 73908 7 -5
2015 10212 25 73988 8 -4
2015 9421 26 75296 9 -3
2015 9791 27 71118 10 -2
2015 9929 28 72018 11 -1
2015 10377 29 74277 12 0
2015 10359 30 70695 1 1 73820
2015 10454 31 70690 2 2 75844
2015 9362 32 69451 3 3 77724
2015 10867 33 78801 4 4 76034
2015 9210 34 74294 5 5 77226
2015 8745 35 70722 6 6 77760
2015 8505 36 75604 7 7 76743
2016 8363 37 70534 8 8 81283
2016 8718 38 76537 9 9 76404
2016 7809 39 68338 10 10 79790
2016 8913 40 74614 11 11 79318
2016 8572 41 72681 12 12 72111
2016 8611 42 75855 1 13 72863
 2016 9804 43 66725 2 14 74729
2016 7890 44 70203 3 15 71421
2016 7568 45 73068 4 16 72290
2016 7663 46 69183 5 17 78355
2016 8585 47 72449 6 18 77852
2016 6618 48 68674 7 19 72546
2017 7609 49 70756 8 20 78976
2017 6761 50 68066 9 21 74899
2017 6967 51 71717 10 22 76559
2017 6706 52 66086 11 23 75006
2017 6744 53 68163 12 24 73908
2017 7332 54 70174 1 25 73988
2017 7795 55 64434 2 26 75296
2017 6278 56 73972 3 27 71118
2017 7164 57 64993 4 28 72018
2017 5726 58 70515 5 29 74277
2017 5361 59 68527 6 30 70695
2017 4078 60 69458 7 31 70690
2018 4642 61 63541 8 32 69451
9 33 78801
10 34 74294
11 35 70722
12 36 75604
1 37 70534
2 38 76537
3 39 68338
4 40 74614
5 41 72681
6 42 75855
7 43 66725
8 44 70203
9 45 73068
10 46 69183
11 47 72449
12 48 68674
1 49 70756
2 50 68066
3 51 71717
4 52 66086
50 60 70 5 53 68163
6 54 70174
7 55 64434
8 56 73972
9 57 64993
10 58 70515
 11 59 68527
12 60 69458
1 61 63541
62
63
64
65
66
67

0 60 70

60 70
 Demanda Agregada
Ct
0.972323759
1.00489738
0.979464055
0.983395442
1.011538634
1.018785907
0.961889569
1.027214527
20 30 40 50 60 70 1.013567158
1.02183531
Alpha 0 N 12 1.012317341
Beta 0.064046624 0.998204271
Gamma 0 MAPE 2.617% 12.00543335

Yt Dt/Yt St Gt Ct Ft e [e]
0.972323759
1.00489738
0.979464055
0.983395442
1.011538634
1.018785907
0.961889569
1.027214527
1.013567158
1.02183531
1.012317341
78012.98 -163.47 0.998204271
77850 0.948239731 77849.51 -163.47 0.972323759 75695 1874.93 1874.93
77686 0.976288588 77686.05 -163.47 1.00489738 78067 2222.50 2222.50
77523 1.002598211 77522.58 -163.47 0.979464055 75931 -1793.42 1793.42
77359 0.982870614 77359.11 -163.47 0.983395442 76075 40.60 40.60
77196 1.000393178 77195.65 -163.47 1.011538634 78086 860.38 860.38
77032 1.009444981 77032.18 -163.47 1.018785907 78479 719.55 719.55
76869 0.998364527 76868.72 -163.47 0.961889569 73939 -2803.78 2803.78
76705 1.059679736 76705.25 -163.47 1.027214527 78793 -2490.25 2490.25
76542 0.998199872 76541.79 -163.47 1.013567158 77580 1176.24 1176.24
76378 1.044668184 76378.32 -163.47 1.02183531 78046 -1743.94 1743.94
76215 1.040715772 76214.85 -163.47 1.012317341 77154 -2164.38 2164.38
76051 0.948187828 76051.39 -163.47 0.998204271 75915 3803.82 3803.82
75888 0.960139616 75887.92 -163.47 0.972323759 73788 924.63 924.63
75724 0.986854235 75724.46 -163.47 1.00489738 76095 1366.31 1366.31
75561 0.945209955 75560.99 -163.47 0.979464055 74009 2588.27 2588.27
75398 0.958784797 75397.52 -163.47 0.983395442 74146 1855.58 1855.58
75234 1.041483095 75234.06 -163.47 1.011538634 76102 -2252.84 2252.84
75071 1.037050559 75070.59 -163.47 1.018785907 76481 -1371.14 1371.14
74907 0.968479277 74907.13 -163.47 0.961889569 72052 -493.62 493.62
74744 1.056624722 74743.66 -163.47 1.027214527 76778 -2198.23 2198.23
74580 1.004274659 74580.20 -163.47 1.013567158 75592 693.04 693.04
74417 1.028784128 74416.73 -163.47 1.02183531 76042 -517.11 517.11
74253 1.01013742 74253.26 -163.47 1.012317341 75168 161.87 161.87
74090 0.997546252 74089.80 -163.47 0.998204271 73957 48.75 48.75
73926 1.000834184 73926.33 -163.47 0.972323759 71880 -2107.67 2107.67
73763 1.020784632 73762.87 -163.47 1.00489738 74124 -1171.89 1171.89
73599 0.966285049 73599.40 -163.47 0.979464055 72088 969.97 969.97
73436 0.980691546 73435.93 -163.47 0.983395442 72217 198.56 198.56
73272 1.013709535 73272.47 -163.47 1.011538634 74118 -159.07 159.07
73109 0.966980774 73109.00 -163.47 1.018785907 74482 3787.42 3787.42
72946 0.969079165 72945.54 -163.47 0.961889569 70166 -524.45 524.45
72782 0.954232258 72782.07 -163.47 1.027214527 74763 5311.80 5311.80
72619 1.085135135 72618.61 -163.47 1.013567158 73604 -5197.17 5197.17
72455 1.025379298 72455.14 -163.47 1.02183531 74037 -256.78 256.78
72292 0.978286938 72291.67 -163.47 1.012317341 73182 2460.11 2460.11
72128 1.048189084 72128.21 -163.47 0.998204271 71999 -3605.31 3605.31
71965 0.980118849 71964.74 -163.47 0.972323759 69973 -560.97 560.97
71801 1.065955985 71801.28 -163.47 1.00489738 72153 -4384.09 4384.09
71638 0.953937589 71637.81 -163.47 0.979464055 70167 1828.66 1828.66
71474 1.043927028 71474.34 -163.47 0.983395442 70288 -4326.46 4326.46
71311 1.019213357 71310.88 -163.47 1.011538634 72134 -547.29 547.29
71147 1.066166667 71147.41 -163.47 1.018785907 72484 -3371.02 3371.02
70984 0.940001266 70983.95 -163.47 0.961889569 68279 1553.72 1553.72
70820 0.991281037 70820.48 -163.47 1.027214527 72748 2544.83 2544.83
70657 1.034122368 70657.02 -163.47 1.013567158 71616 -1452.37 1452.37
70494 0.981408944 70493.55 -163.47 1.02183531 72033 2849.80 2849.80
70330 1.030128164 70330.08 -163.47 1.012317341 71196 -1252.64 1252.64
70167 0.978727522 70166.62 -163.47 0.998204271 70041 1366.62 1366.62
70003 1.010754487 70003.15 -163.47 0.972323759 68066 -2690.27 2690.27
69840 0.974603462 69839.69 -163.47 1.00489738 70182 2115.72 2115.72
69676 1.029289471 69676.22 -163.47 0.979464055 68245 -3471.65 3471.65
69513 0.950703226 69512.75 -163.47 0.983395442 68359 2272.53 2272.53
69349 0.982894003 69349.29 -163.47 1.011538634 70149 1986.48 1986.48
69186 1.014286555 69185.82 -163.47 1.018785907 70486 311.29 311.29
69022 0.933523611 69022.36 -163.47 0.961889569 66392 1957.89 1957.89
68859 1.07425488 68858.89 -163.47 1.027214527 70733 -3239.15 3239.15
68695 0.946103756 68695.43 -163.47 1.013567158 69627 4634.43 4634.43
68532 1.028935994 68531.96 -163.47 1.02183531 70028 -486.62 486.62
68368 1.00231841 68368.49 -163.47 1.012317341 69211 683.61 683.61
68205 1.01837067 68205.03 -163.47 0.998204271 68083 -1375.45 1375.45
68042 0.933855691 68041.56 -163.47 0.972323759 66158 2617.43 2617.43
68211
66324
66430
68165
68487
64505
 Fuerza la
c hora/hombre
cH
cH
c capacitación
cF

Wo
10<W<55

Io
I5

[e]/Dt

ESTRATEGIA DE PERSECUCIÓN
t Mes Días nt Dt Knt Wt
1 62 17 68211 1360 47.99519389
2 63 21 66324 1680 40.401183954
3 64 19 66430 1520 41.487257839
4 65 21 68165 1680 40
5 66 20 68287 1600 42.071140666
6 67 18 64505 1440 44.190041113

0.02539867
0.029303622
0.023074205
0.000533975
0.011141075
0.009253527
0.03653471
0.030636813
0.015394999
0.02185658
0.027287404
0.05274951
0.012689971
0.018283496
0.036239674
0.025668581
0.02875175
0.017612113
0.006804181
0.027834097
0.009252946
0.006754399
0.002158044
0.000659637
0.028486661
0.015563764
0.013638839
0.002757132
0.002141542
0.053574109
0.007418998
0.07648271
0.065953055
0.003456271
0.034785707
0.047686828
0.007953208
0.057280606
0.026759053
0.057984499
0.007530046
0.044440294
0.023285398
0.036249548
0.019876961
0.041192171
0.01728991
0.019900073
0.038021822
0.031083327
0.048407583
0.034387404
0.029143153
0.004435977
0.030385904
0.04378882
0.071306558
0.006900997
0.009975803
0.019802611
0.041192734
 Fuerza laboral Producción
$ 3,100 c/u $ 700 8000
$ 500,000 <10 c/u $ 550 8000
$ 750,000 >10 v/u $ 8,100
$ 100,000 solo cuando se contrata c faltantes ultimo periodo $ 7,850
$ 950,000 cfundación $ 3,000 por unidad

Capacidad bodega 2500

40

sencillo estandar limitada

1000 750 250
150 50 V/U 5 $ 7,290

ESTRATEGIA DE PERSECUCIÓN
t Wt Ft Ht Knt
0 40
1 49 0 9 1360
2 41 8 0 1680
3 41 0 0 1520
4 41 0 0 1680
5 42 0 1 1600
6 44 0 2 1440
 Inventarios
menos cFaltantes $ 4,800 xperiodo
mas cAlmacenamiento $ 500 por unidad
cAlmacenamiento $ 650 por unidad adicional
cfijo $ 24,500 por mes bodega adicional

Horario 8 horas/día
K 10 U/hora
K 80 u/día

Estandar
100

Pt Pac Dt Dac It
2000
66640 66640 68211 68211 429
69669 136309 66324 134535 3774
62973 199282 66430 200964 318
68940 268222 68165 269129 1093
67980 336202 68287 337416 786
63720 399922 64505 401921 1
Faltantes Costo Faltantes CFt CHt CWt CPt

0 $ - $ - $ 5,400,000 $ 20,658,400 $ 36,652,000

0 $ - $ 7,600,000 $ - $ 21,597,265 $ 38,317,950
0 $ - $ - $ - $ 19,521,475 $ 34,635,150
0 $ - $ - $ - $ 21,371,272 $ 37,917,000
0 $ - $ - $ 600,000 $ 21,073,737 $ 37,389,000
0 $ - $ - $ 1,200,000 $ 19,753,195 $ 35,046,000

F.O
Costo FundaciónCosto Subcontratar

$ -
$ -

$ 358,732,444 RESPUESTA
 Demanda Sencillo Demanda Estándar Demanda Edición Lim
Periodo Año Demanda Periodo Año Demanda Periodo
(Mes) (unidades) (Mes) (unidades) (Mes)
1 1 2013 28596 1 2013 28958 1
2 2 2013 33245 2 2013 26514 2
3 3 2013 35664 3 2013 26856 3
4 4 2013 36562 4 2013 24040 4
5 5 2013 38384 5 2013 25739 5
6 6 2013 36827 6 2013 25715 6
7 7 2013 36188 7 2013 27880 7
8 8 2013 40311 8 2013 26464 8
9 9 2013 35942 9 2013 26994 9
10 10 2013 41227 10 2013 23879 10
11 11 2013 41207 11 2013 24501 11
12 12 2013 34916 12 2013 23994 12
13 1 2014 33287 1 2014 26906 1
14 2 2014 36058 2 2014 27023 2
15 3 2014 32296 3 2014 25279 3
16 4 2014 32089 4 2014 26630 4
17 5 2014 38158 5 2014 27518 5
18 6 2014 38946 6 2014 27445 6
19 7 2014 32487 7 2014 28070 7
20 8 2014 39938 8 2014 27243 8
21 9 2014 36844 9 2014 26807 9
22 10 2014 38393 10 2014 27744 10
23 11 2014 36939 11 2014 25813 11
24 12 2014 36756 12 2014 25188 12
25 1 2015 40016 1 2015 23760 1
26 2 2015 34670 2 2015 31205 2
27 3 2015 32801 3 2015 28526 3
28 4 2015 33238 4 2015 28851 4
29 5 2015 35835 5 2015 28065 5
30 6 2015 36786 6 2015 23550 6
31 7 2015 34113 7 2015 26123 7
32 8 2015 36208 8 2015 23881 8
33 9 2015 40991 9 2015 26943 9
34 10 2015 38756 10 2015 26328 10
35 11 2015 36807 11 2015 25170 11
36 12 2015 37777 12 2015 29322 12
37 1 2016 36184 1 2016 25987 1
38 2 2016 39737 2 2016 28082 2
39 3 2016 36484 3 2016 24045 3
40 4 2016 38504 4 2016 27197 4
41 5 2016 39659 5 2016 24450 5
42 6 2016 40066 6 2016 27178 6
43 7 2016 34039 7 2016 22882 7
44 8 2016 39532 8 2016 22781 8
45 9 2016 39478 9 2016 26022 9
46 10 2016 36901 10 2016 24619 10
47 11 2016 36770 11 2016 27094 11
48 12 2016 35265 12 2016 26791 12
49 1 2017 34290 1 2017 28857 1
50 2 2017 33521 2 2017 27784 2
51 3 2017 36173 3 2017 28577 3
52 4 2017 35964 4 2017 23416 4
53 5 2017 36704 5 2017 24715 5
54 6 2017 38156 6 2017 24686 6
55 7 2017 33738 7 2017 22901 7
56 8 2017 41687 8 2017 26007 8
57 9 2017 34485 9 2017 23344 9
58 10 2017 36687 10 2017 28102 10
59 11 2017 35077 11 2017 28089 11
60 12 2017 41188 12 2017 24192 12
61 1 2018 35310 1 2018 23589 1

Demanda sencillo
45000

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Demanda estándar
35000

30000

25000
 Demanda estándar
35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Demanda Edición Limitada

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Demanda Edición Limitada

Año Demanda Demanda Dem

(unidades) Agregada
2013 16266 1 73820 90000
2013 16085 2 75844 80000

2013 15204 3 77724 70000

60000
2013 15432 4 76034
50000
2013 13103 5 77226
40000
2013 15218 6 77760
30000
2013 12675 7 76743
20000
2013 14508 8 81283
10000
2013 13468 9 76404
0
2013 14684 10 79790 0 10 20
2013 13610 11 79318
2013 13201 12 72111
2014 12670 13 72863 St Gt
2014 11648 14 74729 78012.977459016 -163.465825
2014 13846 15 71421
2014 13571 16 72290
2014 12679 17 78355 Dt
2014 11461 18 77852 1 -11
2014 11989 19 72546 2 -10
2014 11795 20 78976 3 -9
2014 11248 21 74899 4 -8
2014 10422 22 76559 5 -7
2014 12254 23 75006 6 -6
2014 11964 24 73908 7 -5
2015 10212 25 73988 8 -4
2015 9421 26 75296 9 -3
2015 9791 27 71118 10 -2
2015 9929 28 72018 11 -1
2015 10377 29 74277 12 0
2015 10359 30 70695 1 1 73820
2015 10454 31 70690 2 2 75844
2015 9362 32 69451 3 3 77724
2015 10867 33 78801 4 4 76034
2015 9210 34 74294 5 5 77226
2015 8745 35 70722 6 6 77760
2015 8505 36 75604 7 7 76743
2016 8363 37 70534 8 8 81283
2016 8718 38 76537 9 9 76404
2016 7809 39 68338 10 10 79790
2016 8913 40 74614 11 11 79318
2016 8572 41 72681 12 12 72111
2016 8611 42 75855 1 13 72863
 2016 9804 43 66725 2 14 74729
2016 7890 44 70203 3 15 71421
2016 7568 45 73068 4 16 72290
2016 7663 46 69183 5 17 78355
2016 8585 47 72449 6 18 77852
2016 6618 48 68674 7 19 72546
2017 7609 49 70756 8 20 78976
2017 6761 50 68066 9 21 74899
2017 6967 51 71717 10 22 76559
2017 6706 52 66086 11 23 75006
2017 6744 53 68163 12 24 73908
2017 7332 54 70174 1 25 73988
2017 7795 55 64434 2 26 75296
2017 6278 56 73972 3 27 71118
2017 7164 57 64993 4 28 72018
2017 5726 58 70515 5 29 74277
2017 5361 59 68527 6 30 70695
2017 4078 60 69458 7 31 70690
2018 4642 61 63541 8 32 69451
9 33 78801
10 34 74294
11 35 70722
12 36 75604
1 37 70534
2 38 76537
3 39 68338
4 40 74614
5 41 72681
6 42 75855
7 43 66725
8 44 70203
9 45 73068
10 46 69183
11 47 72449
12 48 68674
1 49 70756
2 50 68066
3 51 71717
4 52 66086
50 60 70 5 53 68163
6 54 70174
7 55 64434
8 56 73972
9 57 64993
10 58 70515
 11 59 68527
12 60 69458
1 61 63541
62
63
64
65
66
67

0 60 70

60 70
 Demanda Agregada
Ct
0.972323759
1.00489738
0.979464055
0.983395442
1.011538634
1.018785907
0.961889569
1.027214527
20 30 40 50 60 70 1.013567158
1.02183531
Alpha 0 N 12 1.012317341
Beta 0.033032129 0.998204271
Gamma 0 MAPE 2.617% 12.00543335

Yt Dt/Yt St Gt Ct Ft e [e]
0.972323759
1.00489738
0.979464055
0.983395442
1.011538634
1.018785907
0.961889569
1.027214527
1.013567158
1.02183531
1.012317341
78012.98 -163.47 0.998204271
77850 0.948239731 77849.51 -163.47 0.972323759 75695 1874.93 1874.93
77686 0.976288588 77686.05 -163.47 1.00489738 78067 2222.50 2222.50
77523 1.002598211 77522.58 -163.47 0.979464055 75931 -1793.42 1793.42
77359 0.982870614 77359.11 -163.47 0.983395442 76075 40.60 40.60
77196 1.000393178 77195.65 -163.47 1.011538634 78086 860.38 860.38
77032 1.009444981 77032.18 -163.47 1.018785907 78479 719.55 719.55
76869 0.998364527 76868.72 -163.47 0.961889569 73939 -2803.78 2803.78
76705 1.059679736 76705.25 -163.47 1.027214527 78793 -2490.25 2490.25
76542 0.998199872 76541.79 -163.47 1.013567158 77580 1176.24 1176.24
76378 1.044668184 76378.32 -163.47 1.02183531 78046 -1743.94 1743.94
76215 1.040715772 76214.85 -163.47 1.012317341 77154 -2164.38 2164.38
76051 0.948187828 76051.39 -163.47 0.998204271 75915 3803.82 3803.82
75888 0.960139616 75887.92 -163.47 0.972323759 73788 924.63 924.63
75724 0.986854235 75724.46 -163.47 1.00489738 76095 1366.31 1366.31
75561 0.945209955 75560.99 -163.47 0.979464055 74009 2588.27 2588.27
75398 0.958784797 75397.52 -163.47 0.983395442 74146 1855.58 1855.58
75234 1.041483095 75234.06 -163.47 1.011538634 76102 -2252.84 2252.84
75071 1.037050559 75070.59 -163.47 1.018785907 76481 -1371.14 1371.14
74907 0.968479277 74907.13 -163.47 0.961889569 72052 -493.62 493.62
74744 1.056624722 74743.66 -163.47 1.027214527 76778 -2198.23 2198.23
74580 1.004274659 74580.20 -163.47 1.013567158 75592 693.04 693.04
74417 1.028784128 74416.73 -163.47 1.02183531 76042 -517.11 517.11
74253 1.01013742 74253.26 -163.47 1.012317341 75168 161.87 161.87
74090 0.997546252 74089.80 -163.47 0.998204271 73957 48.75 48.75
73926 1.000834184 73926.33 -163.47 0.972323759 71880 -2107.67 2107.67
73763 1.020784632 73762.87 -163.47 1.00489738 74124 -1171.89 1171.89
73599 0.966285049 73599.40 -163.47 0.979464055 72088 969.97 969.97
73436 0.980691546 73435.93 -163.47 0.983395442 72217 198.56 198.56
73272 1.013709535 73272.47 -163.47 1.011538634 74118 -159.07 159.07
73109 0.966980774 73109.00 -163.47 1.018785907 74482 3787.42 3787.42
72946 0.969079165 72945.54 -163.47 0.961889569 70166 -524.45 524.45
72782 0.954232258 72782.07 -163.47 1.027214527 74763 5311.80 5311.80
72619 1.085135135 72618.61 -163.47 1.013567158 73604 -5197.17 5197.17
72455 1.025379298 72455.14 -163.47 1.02183531 74037 -256.78 256.78
72292 0.978286938 72291.67 -163.47 1.012317341 73182 2460.11 2460.11
72128 1.048189084 72128.21 -163.47 0.998204271 71999 -3605.31 3605.31
71965 0.980118849 71964.74 -163.47 0.972323759 69973 -560.97 560.97
71801 1.065955985 71801.28 -163.47 1.00489738 72153 -4384.09 4384.09
71638 0.953937589 71637.81 -163.47 0.979464055 70167 1828.66 1828.66
71474 1.043927028 71474.34 -163.47 0.983395442 70288 -4326.46 4326.46
71311 1.019213357 71310.88 -163.47 1.011538634 72134 -547.29 547.29
71147 1.066166667 71147.41 -163.47 1.018785907 72484 -3371.02 3371.02
70984 0.940001266 70983.95 -163.47 0.961889569 68279 1553.72 1553.72
70820 0.991281037 70820.48 -163.47 1.027214527 72748 2544.83 2544.83
70657 1.034122368 70657.02 -163.47 1.013567158 71616 -1452.37 1452.37
70494 0.981408944 70493.55 -163.47 1.02183531 72033 2849.80 2849.80
70330 1.030128164 70330.08 -163.47 1.012317341 71196 -1252.64 1252.64
70167 0.978727522 70166.62 -163.47 0.998204271 70041 1366.62 1366.62
70003 1.010754487 70003.15 -163.47 0.972323759 68066 -2690.27 2690.27
69840 0.974603462 69839.69 -163.47 1.00489738 70182 2115.72 2115.72
69676 1.029289471 69676.22 -163.47 0.979464055 68245 -3471.65 3471.65
69513 0.950703226 69512.75 -163.47 0.983395442 68359 2272.53 2272.53
69349 0.982894003 69349.29 -163.47 1.011538634 70149 1986.48 1986.48
69186 1.014286555 69185.82 -163.47 1.018785907 70486 311.29 311.29
69022 0.933523611 69022.36 -163.47 0.961889569 66392 1957.89 1957.89
68859 1.07425488 68858.89 -163.47 1.027214527 70733 -3239.15 3239.15
68695 0.946103756 68695.43 -163.47 1.013567158 69627 4634.43 4634.43
68532 1.028935994 68531.96 -163.47 1.02183531 70028 -486.62 486.62
68368 1.00231841 68368.49 -163.47 1.012317341 69211 683.61 683.61
68205 1.01837067 68205.03 -163.47 0.998204271 68083 -1375.45 1375.45
68042 0.933855691 68041.56 -163.47 0.972323759 66158 2617.43 2617.43
68211
66324
66430
68165
68487
64505
 Fuerza la
c hora/hombre
cH
cH
c capacitación
cF

Wo
10<W<55

Io
I5

[e]/Dt
ESTRATEGIA DE NIVELACIÓN
t Mes Días nt Dt Wt
1 62 17 68211 10
2 63 21 66324 10
3 64 19 66430 10
4 65 21 68165 43.38411737
5 66 20 68487 43.38411737
6 67 18 64505 43.38411737

0.02539867
0.029303622
0.023074205
0.000533975
0.011141075
0.009253527
0.03653471
0.030636813
0.015394999
0.02185658
0.027287404
0.05274951
0.012689971
0.018283496
0.036239674
0.025668581
0.02875175
0.017612113
0.006804181
0.027834097
0.009252946
0.006754399
0.002158044
0.000659637
0.028486661
0.015563764
0.013638839
0.002757132
0.002141542
0.053574109
0.007418998
0.07648271
0.065953055
0.003456271
0.034785707
0.047686828
0.007953208
0.057280606
0.026759053
0.057984499
0.007530046
0.044440294
0.023285398
0.036249548
0.019876961
0.041192171
0.01728991
0.019900073
0.038021822
0.031083327
0.048407583
0.034387404
0.029143153
0.004435977
0.030385904
0.04378882
0.071306558
0.006900997
0.009975803
0.019802611
0.041192734
 Fuerza laboral Producción
$ 3,100 c/u $ 700 8000
$ 500,000 <10 c/u $ 550 >800
$ 750,000 >10 v/u $ 8,100
$ 100,000 solo cuando se contrata c faltantes ultimo periodo $ 7,850
$ 950,000 cfundación $ 3,000 por unidad

Capacidad bodega 2500

40

sencillo estandar limitada

1000 750 250
150 50 V/U 5 $ 7,290

ESTRATEGIA DE NIVELACIÓN
t Wt Ft Ht Knt
0 40
1 43 0 3 1360
2 43 0 0 1680
3 43 0 0 1520
4 43 0 0 1680
5 43 0 0 1600
6 43 0 0 1440
 Inventarios
cFaltantes $ 4,800 xperiodo
cAlmacenamiento $ 500 por unidad
cAlmacenamiento $ 650 por unidad adicional
cfijo $ 24,500 por mes bodega adicional

Horario 8 horas/día
K 10 U/hora
K 80 u/día

Estandar
100

Pt Pac Dt Dac It Faltantes

2000
58618 58618 68211 68211 0 7593
72411 131029 66324 134535 0 1506
65514 196543 66430 200964 0 2422
72411 268954 68165 269129 1824 0
68962 337916 68487 337616 2499 0
62066 399982 64505 402121 60 0
Costo Faltantes CFt CHt CWt CPt Costo Fundación

$ 36,446,400 $ - $ 1,800,000 $ 18,171,588 $ 32,239,900

$ 7,228,800 $ - $ - $ 22,447,255 $ 39,826,050
$ 11,625,600 $ - $ - $ 20,309,421 $ 36,032,700
$ - $ - $ - $ 22,447,255 $ 39,826,050
$ - $ - $ - $ 21,378,338 $ 37,929,100 $ -
$ - $ - $ - $ 19,240,505 $ 34,136,300

F.O
Costo Subcontratar

$ -

$ 373,434,863
 Fuerza laboral
c hora/hombre $ 3,100
cH $ 500,000
cH $ 750,000
c capacitación $ 100,000
cF $ 950,000

Wo 40
10<W<55

sencillo
Io 1000
I5 150

ESTRATEGIA DE PERSECUCIÓN
t Mes Días nt Dt Knt Wt
1 62 17 0 1360 47.99519389
2 63 21 0 1680 40.401183954
3 64 19 0 1520 41.487257839
4 65 21 0 1680 40
5 66 20 -200 1600 42.071140666
6 67 18 0 1440 44.190041113
Fuerza laboral Producción
c/u $ 700 8000 menos
<10 c/u $ 550 8000 mas
>10 v/u $ 8,100
solo cuando se contrata c faltantes ultimo periodo $ 7,850
cfundación $ 3,000 por unidad

Capacidad bodega 2500

estandar limitada
750 250 Estandar
50 V/U 5 $ 7,290 100

ESTRATEGIA DE PERSECUCIÓN
t Wt Ft Ht Knt Pt
0 40
1 55 0 15 1360 74800
2 39 16 0 1680 65520
3 45 0 6 1520 67640
4 55 0 10 1680 92400
5 42 13 0 1600 66465
6 43 0 1 1440 61581
0
 Inventarios
cFaltantes $ 4,800 xperiodo
cAlmacenamiento $ 500 por unidad
cAlmacenamiento $ 650 por unidad adicional
cfijo $ 24,500 por mes bodega adicional

Horario 8 horas/día
K 10 U/hora
K 80 u/día

Pac Dt Dac It Faltantes Costo Faltantes

2000
74800 77886 77886 0 1086 $ 5,212,800
140320 65018 142904 0 584 $ 2,803,200
207960 66430 209334 626 0 $ -
300360 90103 299437 2923 0 $ -
366825 66465 365901 2924 0 $ -
428406 64505 430406 0 0 $ -
 CFt CHt CWt CPt Costo Fundación Costo Subcontratar

$ - $ 9,000,000 $ 23,188,000 $ 41,140,000

$ 15,200,000 $ - $ 20,311,200 $ 36,036,000
$ - $ 3,600,000 $ 20,968,407 $ 37,202,000
$ - $ 6,000,000 $ 28,644,000 $ 50,820,000
$ 12,350,000 $ - $ 20,603,997 $ 36,555,750 $ 1,270,910
$ - $ 600,000 $ 19,089,959 $ 33,869,550 $ -

F.O $ 420,457,772 Producción

F.O $ 11,128,542 Finanzas

F.O $ 3,425,504,563 Ventas

Almacenados en BodegaBodega extra Costo It Costo Bodega Extra x unidadcosto bodega extra

0 0 $ - $ - $ -
0 0 $ - $ - $ -
626 0 $ 313,000 $ - $ -
2500 423 $ 1,250,000 $ 275,042 $ 24,500
2500 0 $ 1,250,000 $ - $ -
0 0 $ - $ - $ -
Ingresos por ventas

$ 605,880,000 F.O $ 598,060,800 Ventas

$ 526,644,820 F.O $ 5,212,800 Finanzas
$ 538,079,010 F.O $ 61,770,407 Producción
$ 729,837,140 F.O $ 729,837,140 Ventas
$ 538,281,493 F.O $ 1,549,542 Finanzas
$ 498,806,100 F.O $ 53,559,509 Producción
Se escogen los pronósticos del Dpto de producción ya que es el
área que contempla los mayores costos, además de ser el
pronóstico con el menor error expresado por el indicador MAPE

Fuerza laboral
c hora/hombre $ 3,100
cH $ 500,000
cH $ 750,000
c capacitación $ 100,000
cF $ 950,000

Wo 40
10<W<55

sencillo
Io 1000
I5 150

ESTRATEGIA DE PERSECUCIÓN
t Mes Días nt Dt Knt
1 62 17 68211 1360
2 63 21 66324 1680
3 64 19 66430 1520
4 65 21 68165 1680
5 66 20 68487 1600
6 67 18 64505 1440
boral Producción Inventarios
c/u $ 700 8000 menos cFaltantes $ 4,800
<10 c/u $ 550 8000 mas cAlmacenamiento $ 500
>10 v/u $ 8,100 cAlmacenamiento $ 650
solo cuando se contrata c faltantes ultimo periodo $ 7,850 cfijo $ 24,500
cfundación $ 3,000 por unidad

Capacidad bodega 2500 Horario 8

K 10
K 80

estandar limitada
750 250 Estandar
50 V/U 5 $ 7,290 100

ESTRATEGIA DE PERSECUCIÓN
t Wt Ft Ht Knt Pt Pac Dt
0 40
1 52 0 12 1360 70367 70367 68211
2 37 16 0 1680 61663 132030 66324
3 44 0 7 1520 66407 198437 66430
4 51 0 7 1680 85636 284073 68165
5 39 12 0 1600 62959 347032 68487
6 44 0 5 1440 63576 410608 64505
ios
xperiodo
por unidad
por unidad adicional
por mes bodega adicional

horas/día
U/hora
u/día

Dac It Faltantes Costo Faltantes CFt CHt CWt CPt

2000
68211 4156 0 $ - $ - $7,200,000 $ 21,813,794 $ 38,701,850
134535 0 505 $ 2,424,000 $ 15,200,000 $ - $ 19,115,447 $ 33,914,650
200964 0 528 $ 2,534,400 $ - $4,200,000 $ 20,586,045 $ 36,523,850
269129 16943 0 $ - $ - $4,200,000 $ 26,547,130 $ 47,099,800
337616 11415 0 $ - $ 11,400,000 $ - $ 19,517,135 $ 34,627,450
402121 10486 0 $ - $ - $3,000,000 $ 19,708,520 $ 34,966,800

F.O

F.O

F.O

F.O
Costo Fundación Costo SubcontratarAlmacenados en BodegaBodega extra Costo It Costo Bodega Extra x unidadcosto bodega extra

2500 1656 $1,250,000 $ 1,076,711 $ 24,500

0 0 $ - $ - $ -
0 0 $ - $ - $ -
2500 14443 $1,250,000 $ 9,387,780 $ 24,500
$ 26,743,914 2500 0 $1,250,000 $ - $ -
$ - 2500 7986 $1,250,000 $ 5,190,631 $ 24,500

$ 427,545,585 Producción

$ 25,687,022 Finanzas

$ 3,159,425,734 Ventas

$ 2,716,109,926 Utilidad
Ingresos por ventas

$ 552,505,222
$ 499,470,300
$ 537,896,700
$ 552,138,612
$ 509,886,900
$ 514,965,600
Nº Año Periodo (Mes) Demanda Sencillo Demanda Estándar
1 -11
2 -10
3 -9
4 -8
5 -7
6 -6
7 -5
8 -4
9 -3
10 -2
11 -1
12 0
1 2013 1 28596 28958
2 2 33245 26514

3 3 35664 26856

4 4 36562 24040
5 5 38384 25739
6 6 36827 25714.75
7 7 36188 27880
8 8 40311 26464
9 9 35942 26994
10 10 41227 23879
11 11 41207 24501
12 12 34916 23994
13 2014 1 33287 26906
14 2 36058 27023
15 3 32296 25279
16 4 32089 26630
17 5 38158 27518
18 6 38946 27445
19 7 32487 28070
20 8 39938 27243
21 9 36844 26807
22 10 38392.75 27744
23 11 36939 25813
24 12 36756 25188
25 2015 1 40016 23760
26 2 34670 31205
27 3 32801 28526
28 4 33238 28851
29 5 35835 28065
30 6 36786 23550
31 7 34113 26123
32 8 36208 23881
33 9 40991 26943
34 10 38756 26328
35 11 36807 25170
36 12 37777 29322
37 2016 1 36184 25987
38 2 39737 28082
39 3 36484 24045
40 4 38504 27197
41 5 39659 24450
42 6 40066 27178
43 7 34039 22882
44 8 39532 22781
45 9 39478 26022
46 10 36901 24619
47 11 36770 27094
48 12 35265 26791
49 2017 1 34290 28857
50 2 33521 27784
51 3 36173 28577
52 4 35964 23416
53 5 36704 24715
54 6 38156.25 24686
55 7 33738 22901
56 8 41687 26007
57 9 34485 23344
58 10 36687 28102
59 11 35077 28089
60 12 41188 24192
61 2018 1 35310 23589
62 2
63 3
64 4
65 5
66 6
67 7
Demanda Edición Limitada Dt Yt Dt/Yt St Gt Ct
0.81770256
0.8383194
0.81693196
0.82005975
0.84338422
0.84920505
0.8016917
0.8558951
0.84436621
0.85106846
0.84294991
77519 147.97 0.83094314
16266 73820 77371.03 0.95410388 76604.3825 -170.80625 10.0125174
16085 75844 77223.06 0.98214186 76837.5539 -49.612945

15204 77724 77075.09 1.00841919 77082.0861 38.6305786

15432 76034 76927.12 0.98839005 77074.9448 24.8990197

13103 77226 76779.15 1.00581994 77515.9028 149.716725
15218 77759.75 76631.18 1.0147273 77544.7013 113.441238
12675 76743 76483.21 1.00339669 77082.0328 -59.391681
14508 81283 76335.24 1.0648162 79022.318 540.511382
13468 76404 76187.27 1.0028447 78020.5023 77.8132689
14684 79790 76039.3 1.04932581 78554.1039 214.549771
13610 79318 75891.33 1.04515233 78496.1091 132.786388
13201 72111 75743.36 0.95204385 76452.2584 -520.20474
12670 72863 75595.39 0.96385507 75455.5157 -663.16612
11648 74729 75447.42 0.99047787 75412.8037 -477.02987
13846 71421 75299.45 0.94849298 73948.4034 -773.24101
13571 72290 75151.48 0.96192384 73323.9949 -728.59126
12679 78355 75003.51 1.04468444 74692.7487 -99.387732
11461 77852 74855.54 1.0400299 75130.6619 61.802547
11989 72546 74707.57 0.97106625 73968.4979 -305.38743
11795 78976 74559.6 1.05923315 75886.6271 361.667569
11248 74899 74411.63 1.00654965 75170.8925 38.4469158
10422 76558.75 74263.66 1.03090462 75604.2779 156.928468
12254 75006 74115.69 1.01201244 75160.8158 -23.188721
11964 73908 73967.72 0.99919262 74623.016 -177.57204
10212 73988 73819.75 1.0022792 74687.8356 -104.85453
 9421 75296 73671.78 1.0220467 75310.3047 113.342557
9791 71118 73523.81 0.96727849 74179.8744 -259.7893
9929 72018 73375.84 0.98149473 73914.9795 -261.32099
10377 74277 73227.87 1.01432692 74261.3944 -79.000239
10359 70695 73079.9 0.96736586 72853.4122 -477.69481
10454 70690 72931.93 0.96925997 71759.8357 -662.45932
9362 69451 72783.96 0.95420749 71085.0958 -666.14349
10867 78801 72635.99 1.08487542 72590.9919 -14.53161
9210 74294 72488.02 1.02491419 72527.6389 -29.17804
8745 70722 72340.05 0.97763272 71567.2257 -308.5486
8505 75604 72192.08 1.04726169 72537.6247 75.1356852
8363 70534 72044.11 0.97903909 71969.871 -117.73113
8718 76537 71896.14 1.0645495 73763.114 455.561123
7809 68338 71748.17 0.95247029 72257.261 -132.86313
8913 74614 71600.2 1.04209206 73662.18 328.471532
8572 72681 71452.23 1.01719708 73797.8984 270.645582
8611 75855 71304.26 1.06382143 74493.0999 398.012355
9804 66725 71156.29 0.93772455 72259.9751 -391.32878
7890 70203 71008.32 0.98865879 72218.9904 -286.22556
7568 73068 70860.35 1.03115494 72231.3625 -196.64626
7663 69183 70712.38 0.97837182 70739.3628 -585.25229
8585 72449 70564.41 1.02670737 70695.9506 -422.70028
6618 68674 70416.44 0.97525521 69625.8975 -616.90612
7609 70756 70268.47 1.0069381 69606.8732 -437.54158
6761 68066 70120.5 0.97070044 69047.2329 -474.1712
6967 71717 69972.53 1.02493078 69461.8256 -207.54202
6706 66086 69824.56 0.94645781 68588.3424 -407.32437
6744 68163 69676.59 0.97827692 68535.859 -300.87207
7332 70174.25 69528.62 1.00928582 68778.7118 -137.75462
7795 64434 69380.65 0.92870274 67140.5065 -587.88981
6278 73972 69232.68 1.06845496 69685.0344 351.835501
7164 64993 69084.71 0.94077257 68145.171 -215.67419
5726 70515 68936.74 1.02289432 68678.1343 8.91707275
5361 68527 68788.77 0.99619458 68379.6545 -83.302008
4078 69458 68640.8 1.01190546 68512.6046 -18.42637
4642 63541 68492.83 0.92770294 66975.5879 -474.00347
 Ct Norm. Ft Et |Et|
0.98001634
1.00472562
0.97909277
0.98284143 Alpha
1.0107958 Betta
1.01777207 Gamma
0.96082733
1.02579009
1.01197272
1.02000537
1.01027528
0.99588517
0.97510717 76114.8997 2294.89967 2294.89967 0.03108778
0.99942876 76794.772 950.771984 950.771984 0.01253589

0.98786324 75182.5181 -2541.4819 2541.48188

0.0326988
0.98393732 75797.4355 -236.56454 236.564535 0.0031113
1.00643509 77932.1986 706.198613 706.198613 0.00914457
1.01327242 79045.8984 1286.14838 1286.14838 0.01654003
0.97125963 74616.0658 -2126.9342 2126.93423 0.02771503
1.02663551 79009.062 -2273.938 2273.93799 0.02797557
1.00216522 80515.4131 4111.41314 4111.41314 0.05381149
1.01872367 79660.7009 -129.29909 129.299087 0.00162049
1.01033384 79578.0238 260.023762 260.023762 0.00327824
0.98008445 78305.3511 6194.35111 6194.35111 0.08590022
0.97226756 74041.8899 1178.88989 1178.88989 0.01617954
0.99687989 74749.625 20.6250346 20.6250346 0.000276
0.98125089 74026.2965 2605.29648 2605.29648 0.03647802
0.9845256 71999.7729 -290.22714 290.227136 0.00401476
1.01921383 73062.5615 -5292.4385 5292.4385 0.06754436
1.02015711 75583.3951 -2268.6049 2268.60489 0.02913997 PERSECUCIÓ
0.9741124 73031.4053 485.405254 485.405254 0.006691 t Mes
1.03085797 75625.1648 -3350.8352 3350.83521 0.04242853 1 62
1.00043056 76413.3893 1514.38932 1514.38932 0.02021909 2 63
1.01689394 76617.5345 58.7844621 58.7844621 0.00076783 3 64
1.00661575 76544.1104 1538.11036 1538.11036 0.0205065 4 65
0.9831846 73641.2196 -266.78036 266.780359 0.00360963 5 66
0.97777625 72380.89 -1607.11 1607.10995 0.02172122 6 67
0.99775894 74350.2739 -945.72613 945.726127 0.01256011
0.97449272 74009.521 2891.52103 2891.52103 0.04065808
0.98146862 72776.2164 758.216419 758.216419 0.01052815 t Wt
1.01351272 75068.8271 791.827124 791.827124 0.01066046 0 40
1.00522194 75677.697 4982.69698 4982.69698 0.0704816 1 49.02
0.97740611 70502.0839 -187.91606 187.916058 0.00265831 2 38.75
1.01470421 73291.2969 3840.29691 3840.29691 0.05529506 3 42.38
1.02596577 70449.2719 -8351.7281 8351.72814 0.10598505 4 38.81
1.01913206 73802.563 -491.43702 491.43702 0.00661476 5 40.76
1.00108795 72978.0924 2256.09239 2256.09239 0.03190086 6 42.79
1.00091109 70060.4339 -5543.5661 5543.56608 0.07332371
0.97845807 70999.0324 465.032404 465.032404 0.00659302
1.00971285 71691.1148 -4845.8852 4845.88521 0.06331428
0.96587279 72325.5585 3987.55846 3987.55846 0.05835053
0.99090446 70787.8331 -3826.1669 3826.16687 0.05127948
1.00491854 74990.4667 2309.46667 2309.46667 0.03177538
1.00914003 74455.3258 -1399.6742 1399.67423 0.01845197
0.96120486 73199.031 6474.03099 6474.03099 0.09702557
1.00191846 72925.4182 2722.4182 2722.4182 0.03877923
1.02165086 73800.5542 732.554239 732.554239 0.01002565
1.00679203 73412.8885 4229.8885 4229.8885 0.06114058
1.00820068 70230.435 -2218.565 2218.56504 0.03062244
0.99653628 70337.2754 1663.27544 1663.27544 0.02421987
0.9898733 67522.4048 -3233.5952 3233.59524 0.04570065
1.00253569 69841.1633 1775.16327 1775.16327 0.02608003
0.98585087 66232.8544 -5484.1456 5484.1456 0.07646926
0.98268807 68624.3784 2538.37842 2538.37842 0.03841023
1.00181087 68516.369 353.369004 353.369004 0.00518418
1.0124851 68858.6568 -1315.5932 1315.59318 0.01874752
0.96075007 65978.0214 1544.02142 1544.02142 0.02396284
1.01979867 66680.2953 -7291.7047 7291.70474 0.09857385
1.00127859 71553.2284 6560.22841 6560.22841 0.10093746
1.01277822 68390.8758 -2124.1242 2124.12416 0.03012301
1.00638692 69250.3316 723.33163 723.33163 0.01055543
1.00171505 68059.7931 -1398.2069 1398.20688 0.02013025
0.97752695 67800.5579 4259.5579 4259.5579 0.06703637
66670.2116
65093.348
64418.7187
65197.4247
65412.1775 MAPE= 0.03359264
61614.4078
 0.3
0.3
0.3

Fuerza laboral Produc

C H-H 3100 c/u

Ch 500000 <10 c/u
Ch 750000 >10 v/u
c faltantes
ultimo
periodo
C Cap 100000 solo cuando se contrata
Cf 950000 C fund

Cap Bodega
Wo 40
10<W<55

sencillo estandar limitada

Inv. 0 1000 750 250
Inv. 5 150 50

PERSECUCIÓN
Nt Dt Knt Wt
17 66670.2116 1360 47.6999496
21 65093.348 1680 38.8215736
19 64418.7187 1520 42.8660326
21 65197.4247 1680 39.9212977
20 65212.1775 1600 41.9586161
18 61614.4078 1440 43.9863314
Ft Ht Knt Pt Pac Dt Dac It
2000
0 9 1360 66670 66670 66670.2116 66670.211586534 1999.78841
10 0 1680 65093 131763 65093.348 131763.55958234 1999.44042
0 4 1520 64419 196182 64418.7187 196182.2782816 1999.72172
4 0 1680 65197 261379 65197.4247 261379.70303126 1999.29697
0 2 1600 65212 326591 65212.1775 326591.88054011 2199.11946
0 2 1440 61614 388205 61614.4078 388206.28833677 2198.71166

-0.2115865
-0.3479958
0.28130074
-0.4247497
-0.1775089
-0.4077967
 Producción
700 <8000
550 >800
8100

7850

3000 X und

2500

V/U 5 7290
Faltantes Almacenados en Bodega Bodega extra Costo It Costo Faltantes

0 1999.7884134659 0 999894.207 0
0 1999.4404176585 0 999720.209 0
0 1999.7217183993 0 999860.859 0
0 1999.2969687405 0 999648.484 0
0 2199.1194598891 0 1099559.73 0
0 2198.7116632291 0 1099355.83 0
 Inventarios

cFaltantes 4800
C Almac. 500
C Almac. 650

C fijo 24500

Horario 8
K 10
K 80

Estandar
100
Costo Bodega Extra x unidad costo bodega extra
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
F.O
Costo de subcontratar Ingresos por ventas
$ 605,880,000
$ 52,644,820
$ 538,079,010
$ 729,837,140
$ 538,281,493
0 $ 498,806,100
$ 2,963,528,563
rios

xperiodo
X und
X und adicional

X mes Bodega adicional

horas/día
U/hora
u/día
RESPUESTA