Univ. of Min. Intl. Mult. Res. Jour.

2016, 1(2), 117-123

Predictors of passing the Science, Technology and Engineering examination

using logistic regression

Sherwin S. Fortugaliza
University of Southeastern Philippines, Mindanao, Philippines
Email: sherwin.fortugaliza@yahoo.com

Date received: 26 April 2016

Date accepted: 3 September 2016
Date published: 16 December 2016

ABSTRACT

This study employed logistic regression to determine the predictors of elementary students to pass the
Science, Technology and Engineering (STE) examination. This examination is prepared by the Bureau of
Secondary Education (BSE) administered by STE schools as basis for admitting student in the program.
One hundred six (106) elementary students who took the exam for school year 2015-2016 were
purposively chosen as respondents. Estimation revealed that membership and mathematics grade
significantly predict students’ probability in passing. However, since the independent variables were
simultaneously entered all the independent variables were included in the simulation. Grade six students
who belongs to a household with income above 20,000, member in science, math and English related
organization, with grades 90 in math, English and science, living both with his/her parents, enrolled in a
public school and is 11 years old has 57 percent probability of passing the examination. Schools should
not only teach the students to learn the concept but also to encourage them to become holistic by actively
engaging in different academic related organizations. Revisiting competencies related to science and
English should also be done.

Keywords: STE, BSE, Logistic, Regression.

INTRODUCTION

Globally, a pressing need for improving and increasing science, technology and engineering related skills
among our citizenry is widely acknowledge. According to President’s Council of Advisors on Science
and Technology (PCAST), the increase in the number of these students will help produce the capable and
flexible workforce needed to compete in a global marketplace. Moreover, it will ensure for a continuous
advancement through fundamental discoveries on areas related to science and technology. In fact, it has
been discussed in respected reports such as “Rising Above the Gathering Storm” from the National
Academies, and data on the workforce the benefits of post secondary education for country’s productivity,
growth and future role of these students in globalization (Bryant, 2015). Clearly, STE education is
essential to be secured on economic competitiveness and in our national, health, even in our environment.

However, it is primarily considered critical in building a strong foundation for elementary students to
advance mathematics and science courses in high school even up to college (Bretherton, 1992). Several
researches have shown that a better indicator of whether a student will follow the track in science and
engineering is to increase their interest than grades in school. Negating evidences were recorded that
many students are getting more afraid of Science and Mathematics subjects. STE was crafted and has
been added into the curriculum to clued-up students on earning more knowledge on the subjects as a way
to reinforce concepts learned in traditional mathematics and science classes. However, the possibility of
passing in the examination in secondary schools still seems to be unpredictable.

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This study is anchored on Social Cognitive theory of Bandura (2002). It is asserted that family structure is
an environmental agent that influence humans development and in turns impact student achievement
(Bandura, 2002)]. Moreover, attachment theory of John Bowlby and Mary Ainsworth also supports the
previous theory. This contends that even if student is living with his/her single parent only, he/she can
still be academically competitive (Bretherton, 1992). Bandura (1986) as cited by Anderson (2002) that
past performance predicts future performance but inclusive of motivation and abilit. Furthermore, this
study is also grounded on the arguments of Geiser and Santelices (2007), that previous performance
influence future academic performance (Considine & Zappala, 2002), a clear proposition that the school
and immediate community should synergistically function to arrive at a favorable result. This study was
conducted to determine predictors of passing the STE program examination. The result of the study will
serve as a basis for elementary schools to look into the particular factor/s that may significantly influence
students’ towards passing the exam.

METHODOLOGY

A causal design for research was employed in the study which aims to determine the influence of sets of
independent variables on a particular dependent variable [O’Connell, 2011 & Bellamy, 2007). In this
study, age, type of school, type of living, grade point average (Science, English and Math), membership
and household income were the criterion variables and probability passing the examination as the
outcome. The respondents of the study were the students who took the STE examination school year
2015-2016 which were purposively selected. The data were gathered through survey and the grades of
three major subjects were directly obtained from their respective advisers. Since the study uses a binary
DV (0-failed, 1-pass), an ordinary least squares regression is not applicable, assumption of
homoscedasticity and normality will be violated, hence a nonlinear transformation, log odds (Logit), is
applied to the DV which is then expressed as a linear function of the IVs in the following manner
(Agresti, 1996).

 π 
Log   = a + b1 age + b2 TOL + b3TOS + b4 GEng + b5 GSci + b6 GMath + b7 Member + b8 hinc
1− π 
[eq.1]
where:
TOL Type of living
TOS Type of School
GEng English Grade
GSci Science Grade
GMath Mathematics Grade
Member Membership (english, science and math)
hinc Household Income

and the computation for the students probability in passing the examination was obtained by transforming
back the estimated logit equation to a probability form (Agresti, 1996):

e a + b 1 age + b 2 TOL + b 3 TOS + b 4 GEng + b 5 GSci + b 6 GMath + b 7 Member + b 8 hinc

π =
1 + e a + b 1 age + b 2 TOL + b 3 TOS + b 4 GEng + b 5 GSci + b 6 GMath + b 7 Member + b 8 hinc
[eq.2]

Variable for household income was nominalized. Zero (0) represents a household with income 20,000 and
below and one (1) for household with income above 20,000.

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RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Table 1 describes the age of the respondents. The oldest student was 13 years old and 11 as the youngest,
the common age range of an incoming grade seven student in the Philippines.

Table1 Age Distribution of the respondents

Std.
Indicator N Minimum Maximum Mean
Deviation
Age 101 11.00 13.00 11.99 .543

The average is 11.99 with a standard deviation of .543. The student age is an important factor to be
considered in taking examinations. It is asserted that children's understanding changes dramatically with
age (Folmer et al., 2008). It can be explained by medical findings posing that the lifespan trajectory of
brain functions provides some insight into age-related differences in understanding (Choo, 1996).

Table 2 also shows the other profile of the respondents. Thirty 37 or 34.90 percent were graduates from
private schools and 69 or 65.09 were from public elementary.

Table 2 Other Profile of Respondents

Indicator F %
Type of School
Private 37 34.90
Public 69 65.09
Total 106 100.00
Membership
Has membership 78 73.60
No membership 28 26.40
Total 106 100.00
Household Income
20,000 and below 68 64.15
Above 20,000 33 31.13
Did not indicate 5 4.72
Total 106 100.00
Type of Living
Living with both parents 91 85.85
Living with
15 12.26
Mother/Father only
Total 106 100.00

Most of these students were members in Science, Math and English related organization. It is claimed that
schools organizations are structured to support learning (Folmer et al., 2008). Further, Choo (1996) affirm
that this helps create knowledge for innovation and understanding. It should also be noted that more than
sixty percent of the respondents’ household have income twenty thousand and below. Martha (2005) in
his study that parents’ economic status influenced student’s academic achievement because these students
are more exposed to scholastic material than the other.

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In addition, a relatively large number of students are living with their both parents. It is affirmed by Chu
(2010) and Handerson (1987) as cited in Tamayo and Cañizares (2014) that learning efficacy and
academic achievement are influenced by family support.

Table 3 presents the academic performance of students in three major subjects for school year 2015-2016
represented by the GPA (Grade Point Average). The GPA of the respondents in the three subjects showed
a highest score of 95.25 (Advanced) and lowest of 82.00 (Advanced Proficient) for English, 95.39
(Advanced) and 83.75 (Advanced Proficient) for Science and 96.65 (Advanced) and (84.00) for
Mathematics.

Table 3 Academic Performance of Students in English, Science and Math

Subjects Max Minimum Average Std. Dev
English 82.00 95.25 89.8547 2.79333
Science 83.75 95.39 89.6894 2.91032
Mathematics 84.00 96.65 89.9444 3.03206

On the average, the grades of elementary schools and respondents in the three major subjects were almost
the same. The students’ academic performance was described using the Department of Education
(DepEd) Memo No. 158, s. 2011 “Pilot Adoption of Standards-Based Assessment and Rating System at
the Secondary Level1.

Table 4 presents the number of passers and flunkers of the examination for school year 2015-2016. As
shown, almost half of the respondents failed in the examination.

Table 4 Passers and Flunkers per exam, School Year 2015-2016

Date of Exam Passers Flunkers % of passers
April 2014 81 60 57%

DepEd Order 55 s. 2010, requires STE schools to administer an examination prepared by the Bureau of
Secondary Education (BSE) basis for admission of students in the program2. The exam is composed of 50
items for english, mathematics and science. Students should get fifty (50) percent which is 75 of the total
number of items to pass the examination.

Parametric Estimation Using Binary Logistic Regression

Table 5 shows that the model under the alternative hypothesis (HA: Estimated model) is better than the
model under the null (H0: Intercept only model). With statistical evidence on omnibus tests of model
coefficients, the full model has a significantly better prediction performance than the null model at 5 %
alpha level (chi square =39.860; df=3; p=000).

Table 5 Model Fitting Information

Model -2 Log
Chi-Square Df Sig
Likelihood
Intercept Only 134.732
33.789 3 .000
Final 100.943

Since the estimated model has more than one continuous predictor (Age, GEng,GSci, and GMath) the
Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, which is obtained by creating groups based on partitioning of estimated

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probabilities, is a better test to assess lack of fit. The goodness-of-fit measures have large observed
significance level (Pearson Chi Square = 13.976, df = 8, p = .082), hence the model fits (Hosmer and
Lemeshow, 2000).

Moreover, given the set of independent variables, the full model explains about 28 to 39 percent
probability that the respondent will pass the examination.

Table 7 Pseudo R-Square

Pseudo R-Square Coefficient Value
Cox and Snell .284
Nagelkerke .386

The tests revealed that among the seven (7) independent variables only two (2) were found to determine
significantly the probability of passing. Presented in table 8 is the binary logistic regression result. Based
on the table, students who were members of either Science, English and Mathematics related organization
during their grade six years have 7.028 times more likely to pass in the STE exam for grade seven than
those who were not members. It could also be interpreted, that an increase in mathematics grade is 1.268
times more likely to pass the exam.

Table 8 Binary logistic regression result to determine significant predictors

95% C.I.for
Wal Exp( Exp(B)
Predictor B S.E. Sig.
d B) Lowe Upp
r er
Age -.633 .484 1.71 .191 .531 .206 1.37
3 1
TOS(1) 1.161 .620 3.50 .061 3.192 .947 10.7
5 56
TOL(1) .116 .737 .025 .875 1.123 .265 4.76
3
English .058 .113 .260 .610 1.059 .849 1.32
2
Science .056 .118 .222 .637 1.057 .839 1.33
3
Math** .237 .113 4.43 .035 1.268 1.016 1.58
2 0
Membership(1 1.950 .612 10.1 .001 7.028 2.116 23.3
)*** 39 38
Nom_Income( .638 .601 1.12 .288 1.892 .583 6.13
1) 7 8
Constant - 12.80 4.03 .045 .000
25.71 1 4
0
Note: The dependent variable in this analysis is passer coded as =1 and flunkers coded as=0

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Membership in Science, Mathematics or English related organizations has more influence in the
likelihood that an elementary student will pass the STE exam. Presented in table 9 is the simulation result
of probability to pass.

Table 9 Simulation Result of probability to pass

Probability
Simulation
Estimate
Nom_Inc=1;Member=1;Math=90;Science=90
56.984
English=90;TOL=1;TOS=1;Age=11

Grade six students who belongs to a household with income above 20,000, member in either Science,
Mathematics and English related organization, with grades 90 in math, english and science, living both
with his/her parents, enrolled in a public school and is 11 years old has 57 percent probability of passing
the examination

Implications
The probability of the elementary graduate students to pass the STE for secondary level examination is
largely influenced by their respective learning institutions. Learning institutions should not only teach the
students to learn concepts but should also encourage them to become holistic through an active
participation in any academic related subjects. Students’ membership and mathematics grade were seen as
additional factors to predict students in passing the examination. Thus, there should be an increase in the
number of academic related organizations especially those who are related to science, math and english.
Moreover, revisiting competencies related to science and english.

Limitations
The study is faced with problem such as getting the total number of passers and flunkers as the total
number of respondents, soundness of the variable and conceptualization of the model. The whole idea of
estimation is to quantify the influence the set of independent variables to determine the probability of
passing the STE examination.

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