Go ahead, judge me.

If you’d like to let other

students know about
me/the course:
www.ratemyprofessor.com

Thank you so much for

your constructive
feedback and helping to
further improve my
teaching!
 November 20, 2018

Putting the ‘change’

in climate change

Climate
change

Prof. Furqan Asif

ENV1101
Photo: grist.org
CLIMATE CHANGE 101

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKCuDxpccYM
 THE CLIMATE IS, UH…CHANGING

“…increases in: mean temperature in most land and

ocean regions (high confidence), hot extremes in most
inhabited regions (high confidence), heavy
precipitation in several regions (medium confidence),
and the probability of drought and precipitation
deficits in some regions (medium confidence).” – IPCC
special report
THE CLIMATE IS, UH…CHANGING
From 1860 to 2014, humanity emitted ~584.4
Gigatons of Carbon (GtC) from fossil fuel
combustion, industry processes and land-use
change, which has resulted in ~1°C of global
warming (green line in figure)

Temperature projections from 42 Earth system

models (ESMs) under four alternative emission
scenarios show that an additional 231.4 to 744.8 GtC
would push global warming across the 2 °C threshold

As of 2018: global averaged concentrations of CO2

reached 410 parts per million (ppm).
Last time CO2 levels were this high: more than three
million years ago [Link]

“Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between

2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the The grey shaded area represents the CO2e emissions
current rate (high confidence)” – IPCC special report among ESMs at which such a threshold is crossed
(values are for the 5th and 95th percentiles of all model
projections)
 GIGA, WHAT?
In science: prefix “giga” means one billion (1,000,000,000)
e.g. Gigawatt = 1,000,000,000 watts or Gigahertz = 1,000,000,000
So, 1 gigaton (Gt) = 1,000,000,000 metric tons

African elephant: ~6.8 metric tons so one Gt of elephants is >100,000,000 elephants

Blue whale: ~146 metric tons so one Gt is >6 million blue whales
1 Olympic size swimming pool: ~2,500 metric tons so one Gt is 400,000 Olympic-size pools

In 2010: ~9 GtC was emitted from burning fossil fuels as 33 Gt of carbon dioxide gas (GtCO2)
How much is 9Gt?
It is the weight of about 132 billion people!

In other words: The amount of carbon we are putting into the atmosphere each year is equal to
~20 times the weight of the current world population.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/outreach/behind_the_scenes/gases.html
 Source: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/how-many-gigatons-of-co2/

* Note: Values are ~3.6x

higher because data
expressed in Gt carbon
emissions vs. Gt of
carbon (GtC)
What if…?
Source: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/how-many-gigatons-of-co2/
What if…?
Source: https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/how-many-gigatons-of-co2/
THE FIRST NUMBER: 2° CELSIUS
Article 2 of Paris Agreement:
"(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C
above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to
1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels…”
- "Paris Agreement, FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1" (PDF). UNFCCC secretariat.

In the first half of 2016 average temperatures were about 1.3 °C (2.3 degrees
Fahrenheit) above the average in 1880.

Global average temperature: ↑0.8°C but another 0.8°C expected = 2/3 of 2°C

"The target that has been talked about in international negotiations for two degrees
of warming is actually a prescription for long-term disaster.” – James Hansen
WHY 2°C IS CLIMATE CHANGE’S MAGIC NUMBER

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-2-degrees-celsius-is-climate-changes-magic-number
 Argue: IPCC projections are not based on a fully statistical approach

Using climate data from 1960-2010, develop a statistically based

probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100.

The likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0 – 4.9 °C, with a
median 3.2 °C and a 5% chance that it will be less than 2 °C (1.5 °C).

Raftery, A. E., Zimmer, A., Frierson, D. M. W., Startz, R., & Liu, P. (2017). Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely. Nature Climate Change, 7, 637.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3352?foxtrotcallback=true
 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0321-8

Nature Climate Change 8, pages 931–933 (2018)

What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is a decentralized cashless payment system introduced in early 2009, and is now
accepted by over 100,000 merchants and vendors worldwide.

How does it work?

Each transaction paid for with Bitcoin is compiled into a ‘block’ that requires a
computationally demanding proof-of-work to be solved, which uses large amounts of
electricity

Generally: 60% of the economic return of Bitcoin transaction verification goes to electricity
(assuming US$ 5 cents/kWh and 0.7 kg of CO2 equivalent, CO2e, emitted per kWh)
 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0321-8
In 2017: Bitcoin usage emitted 69 MtCO2e

Depending on its growth trend of adoption, it could

warm the planet by 2°C in 16 years (red line in figure
below) or 22 years (slowest adoption) or 11 years
Nature Climate Change 8, pages 931–933 (2018)
(fastest) Trends in the adoption of broadly used technologies
Cumulative emissions from Bitcoin usage
under the average growth rate of technologies
 A CRUDE AWAKENING?
Despite repeated pledges to end fossil fuel subsidies G7
countries* provided at least $100 billion annually (2015
and 2016) in government support for the production and
consumption of oil, gas and coal, both at home and
abroad in more than 50 countries around the world.

Canada does not publish specific reports on fiscal

support to fossil fuels.

Canada provides the largest fiscal support to oil and gas

production (relative to its GDP) out of all G7 countries

The US provides the highest level of total fiscal support

to domestic coal, oil and gas production of all the G7 https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/r
esource-documents/12222.pdf
countries

*Includes: US, UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan

 I PLEDGE, YOU PLEDGE…
China, Russia and Canada’s current climate Climate goals are off course. Which countries are to blame?
policies would drive the world above a
catastrophic 5C of warming by the end of
the century

To meet 1.5°C, Canada will have to reduce

its emissions by ~70% over 2010-2030; for
<2°C: 65%
World emissions: must decline by 45% from
2010 levels by 2030

India leading way with current trajectory

putting it towards just under 2 °C

Want to know more?

http://paris-equity-check.org/warming-
check
Pont, Y. R. du, & Meinshausen, M. (2018). Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/16/climate-change- emissions pledges. Nature Communications, 9(1), 4810. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07223-9
champions-still-pursuing-devastating-policies-new-study-reveals
THE SECOND NUMBER: 565 GIGATONS
Carbon emissions expected to keep growing by ~ 3% per year

At this rate, 565 GtC will be reached in 16 years

"You know those new cigarette packs, where governments make them
put a picture of someone with a hole in their throats? Gas pumps
should have something like that.“ – McKibben (2012)
THE THIRD NUMBER: 2,795 GIGATONS
Equals the amount of carbon
already contained in the proven
coal and oil and gas reserves of
the fossil-fuel companies

i.e. it's the fossil fuel we're

currently planning to burn.

2,795 GtC > 565 GtC

To avoid this: we would have to

keep 80% in the ground
The City of Toronto set up seven cooling centres A brief but soggy thunderstorm in August Climate
during this summer's heat wave, including one at flooded Toronto streets, costing the city
Metro Hall on July 4, 2018. (Bruce Reeve/CBC) roughly $80 million.(@earthisanocean/Twitter)
change in
Canada

B.C. experienced its worst wildfire season this year, The 2013 ice storm in Toronto cost the city
with more than 13,000 square kilometres approximately $106 million. (Aaron Vincent
burned. (B.C. Wildfire Service) Elkaim/Canadian Press) https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/climate-change-canada-1.4878263
CLIMATE JUSTICE
Those who are least responsible for
climate change suffer its gravest
consequences.

Some connect climate change with

unjust North/South economic relations

Related: ‘environmental justice’ –

broader term ‘concerned with the
hugely disproportionate impact of
pollution and ecological degradation
on poor communities.’

Generally, reservations on relying on

market solutions (seen as having
caused the problems in the first place)
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2011/03/climate-change-impact-injustice/1#.WWx5m4iGOUl
71% percent of global emissions
come from just 100 companies [Link]

“The people who are a threat are the

billionaires in the boardrooms of
these companies.”
CLIMATE JUSTICE
Whereas Canadian legal systems
typically seek to “punish the offender
and focu[s] primarily on the
offence…the priority within Inuit
customary law was not necessarily to
punish the offender or provide
‘justice’ per se but rather to
ensure the community returned to a
state of harmony, peace, and
equilibrium” - Cameron et al. 2015

“Like acupuncture, [Inuit] know that

the pain is much in their homelands
but the needles have to be inserted in
the south, since that is where the
disease really is.”
- Cameron et al. 2015
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2011/03/climate-change-impact-injustice/1#.WWx5m4iGOUl
 CLIMATE JUSTICE
“The climate justice message is that poor people have not been “waiting
for the science” on global warming. They have been living with it – and
with many other forms of pollution and degradation – for many years, as
“social sinks” for the externalisation of environmental costs.” - Jethro Pettit

But now: much of the developing world is increasing consumption and

fuel/energy dependence.

How can climate justice be reconciled within this new change in the
energy/consumption landscape?
LOSS & DAMAGE | CLIMATE JUSTICE
Covers both immediate impacts e.g. extreme weather events and slow
onset impacts e.g. sea level rise

Issue emerged within Paris negotiations from Alliance of Small Island

States and the Least Developed Countries

In the end: Paris agreement adopted Warsaw International Mechanism

for Loss and Damage*
*For more information:
http://unfccc.int/adaptation/workstreams/loss_and_damage/items/8132.php
COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9suO4jrwfDE
Making money as the ice melts:

Opening of the Northwest Passage (normally inaccessible

and covered in ice) = new shipping lanes + geopolitical
implications (who owns the waterway?)

Alternative route for ships (vs Panama canal) – up to 6,000

km could be cut for routes i.e. major economic advantage

~20% of global oil and gas reserves under ice within Arctic
circle
Making money as the ice melts:

A top JP Morgan Asset investment strategist advised clients

that sea-level rise was so inevitable that there was likely a lot
of opportunity for investing in sea-wall construction. [Link]

Netherlands (sea wall building champions) selling seawalls

to anyone who wants them (e.g. seawall development plan
at Jakarta Bay, Indonesia - $24.7 billion [Link])

Israel selling (artificial) snow in the Alps [Link]

Hiring of private firefighters to protect homes from

wildfires (Fun fact: Kanye West did this for his $16M SoCal
home)
“In psychology, magical thinking is the fallacy that thoughts correspond
to actions—that to think is to do, to believe is to act. Perhaps the most
magical assumption of the moment is that our growing belief in climate
change will lead to a real effort to stop it. But as I discovered in Canada
and Greenland and Sudan and Seattle and all over the globe, that is not
automatically true. We are noticing that in this new world, there is new
oil to find. There is new cropland to farm. There are new machines to be
built. From what I have seen in six years of reporting this book, the
climate is changing faster than we are.”

“The hardest truth about climate change is that it is not equally bad for
everyone. Some people—the rich, the northern—will find ways to thrive
while others cannot, and many people will wall themselves off from the
worst effects of warming while others remain on the wrong side. The
problem with our profiting off this disaster is not that it is morally
bankrupt to do so but that climate change, unlike some other disasters, is
man- made. The people most responsible for historic greenhouse
emissions are also the most likely to succeed in this new reality and the
least likely to feel a mortal threat from continued warming. The
imbalance between rich and north and poor and south—inherited from
history and geography, accelerated by warming—is becoming even more
entrenched.”
“Climate change is often framed as a scientific or economic or
environmental issue, not often enough as an issue of human justice.
This, too, needs to change. From this moment on, many of us could get
rich. Many of us could get high. Life will go on. Before it does, we
should all make sure we understand the reality of what we’re buying.”

“The people who should read this book cannot afford it or cannot be
distracted from their profits. What should those who read it do? The
only action that comes to mind is revolution, but that's unlikely to
succeed when citizens are distracted and deluded (e.g., Russia and the
US), reactionaries are backed by crony capitalists (e.g., Egypt and
Turkey), or people are too worried about big screen TVs to see the
bigger picture (e.g., India and Australia). Indeed, it's hard to see how
any leaders can win support from voters by promising less now for
more later. Does this mean that China's dictators are our last hope?”
 “WE’RE DOOMED!”
Argument: accepting the impending end of most
life on Earth might be the very thing needed to
help us prolong it.
“Standing in the way is capitalism. Can you
imagine the global airline industry being
“…accepting that our civilisation is doomed dismantled when hundreds of new
could make humanity rather like an individual runways are being built right now all over
who recognises he is terminally ill. Such people the world? It’s almost as if we’re deliberately
rarely go on a disastrous binge; instead, they do attempting to defy nature. We’re doing the
all they can to prolong their lives.” reverse of what we should be doing, with
everybody’s silent acquiescence, and
nobody’s batting an eyelid.”
“We’ve got to stop burning fossil fuels. So many -Dr. Mayer Hillman
aspects of life depend on fossil fuels, except for
music and love and education and happiness.
These things, which hardly use fossil fuels, are
what we must focus on.” – Dr. Mayer Hillman

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/26/were-doomed-mayer-hillman-on-the-climate-reality-no-one-else-will-dare-mention
WHY ARE HUMANS SO BAD AT THINKING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkZ7BJQupVA
“All pathways that
limit global warming
to 1.5°C with limited
or no overshoot
project the use of
carbon dioxide
removal (CDR) on
the order of 100–
1000 GtCO2 over the
21st century.”
– IPCC special report
SOLUTIONS RANKED BY MOST
IMPACT IN REDUCING [CO2]
HFCS (refrigerants) have 9,000x
more heat trapping ability than
CO2

Many linked to societal changes:

Reducing food waste - 3rd
Plant-focused diet – 4th
Educating girls – 6th
Family planning – 7th

For more information on the

different solutions, go to
www.drawdown.org
 “Negative Emissions Technologies" = NETs

Take CO2 and a) store it underground and/or b) combine it into useful

products (e.g. concrete + paving materials)

Using certain catalysts, CO2 can be made into methane and liquid fuels

2018 Report: “Gaseous Carbon Waste Streams Utilization: Status and Research
Needs” [Link to full report: https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25232/gaseous-carbon-waste-streams-utilization-status-and-research-needs]
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-back-efforts-to-pull-co2-from-the-atmosphere/
 Carbon dioxide utilization
Three categories of carbon utilization:

1.Conversion to inorganic products e.g. via

mineralization: reaction of minerals (calcium or
magnesium silicates) with CO2 (current
limitation: reaction rate of carbonation)

2.Chemical conversion – using CO2 for

production of fuels and chemicals by reacting it
with other molecules (via catalyst)

3.Biological conversion – using photosynthetic or

similar processes present in plants, algae,
bacteria, and fungi to produce higher-value
chemicals
National Academies of Sciences. (2018). Gaseous Carbon Waste Streams Utilization: Status and Research
Needs. https://doi.org/10.17226/25232
 Microalgae are 150 to 200 times
more efficient than trees at
removing carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere

An algae lamp can remove as much

CO2 in one year as a tree would in
its lifetime.

Challenges: preventing the “dirty

fishbowl” effect i.e. murky build on
glass

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/can-an-algae-powered-lamp-quench-our-thirst-for-energy-3509307/
 CO2-sucking factories could anchor a
new, clean economy “Direct air capture industry”
Since they can be placed anywhere, the engines of the growing
carbon-capture industry could help create more jobs across the Startup Climeworks - working in Iceland
globe. to capture CO2 that is injected
underground and turned into stone.

“Because the level of atmospheric CO2

is equally high everywhere, capturing it
and turning it into products can
potentially bring back jobs to areas that
have lost other industry.”

Startup Opus 12 plans to capture CO2

emissions (from sources such as power
plants, at least initially) and turn them
into cost-competitive chemical
Climate change sucks! products.

https://www.fastcompany.com/90255654/co2-sucking-factories-could-anchor-a-new-clean-economy
http://www.climeworks.com
WHAT IF?
We could stop climate change from reaching
dangerous levels?
Offshore wind Clever Concrete Fake meat
http://solidiatech.com/ https://impossiblefoods.com/

THE TOP CLIMATE CHANGE INNOVATIONS ?

 HOW TO REVERSE REIMAGINING
GLOBAL WARMING CARBON

https://youtu.be/AOKtuIEjzp8 https://youtu.be/g4d9taLpzH0
https://phys.org/news/2017-07-effective-individual-tackle-climate-discussed.html
 We won’t save the Earth with a better kind of
disposable coffee cup
George Monbiot

“We must challenge the corporations that urge us to live in a throwaway society rather than seeking
‘greener’ ways of maintaining the status quo.”

“The right question is, “How should we live?” But systemic thinking is an endangered species.”

“[there is a] mistaken belief that a better form of

consumerism will save the planet. The problems we
face are structural: a political system captured by
commercial interests, and an economic system that
seeks endless growth.”

“Of course we should try to minimise our own

impacts, but we cannot confront these forces merely
by “taking responsibility” for what we consume.”
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/06/save-earth-disposable-coffee-cup-green
WHAT CAN I DO?
Push for better policies by writing to your Member of Parliament –
enter your postal code to find out who it is:
https://www.ourcommons.ca/parliamentarians/en/constituencies/Fin
dMP

Get involved in local civil society organizations – e.g. Environmental

Defense Fund; Environmental Justice Foundation, etc.

Work on the front lines of research on climate change

Spread the word!

WWW.CLIMATECOLAB.ORG
Note: these remaining slides are just FYI – they were not covered in lecture.

Why half a degree of global warming is a big deal

By BRAD PLUMER and NADJA POPOVICH Illustrations by IRIS GOTTLIEB OCT. 7, 2018

Half a degree might not sound like much, but as the recent
IPCC report outlines, even that amount of warming will have
far-reaching consequences (e.g. heat waves, water shortages,
coastal flooding).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-report-half-degree.html
 Extreme heat

Greater habitat losses for polar bears,

whales, seals and sea birds.

But: warming temperatures could

benefit Arctic fisheries.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-report-half-degree.html
Water scarcity Plants and animals

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-report-half-degree.html
TRANSLATING CLIMATE CHANGE: ADAPTATION, RESILIENCE, AND
CLIMATE POLITICS IN NUNAVUT, CANADA
Emilie Cameron, Rebecca Mearns & Janet Tamalik McGrath

“Our argument is not that climate change terms are translated into Inuktitut incorrectly but
rather that current translations facilitate a broader shift from framing climate change as an
ethical issue of globalized injustice, harm, and redress to a matter of localized, technocratic,
participatory, and consensual adaptation.”

Photo: http://www.bluedotmagazine.com/2016/04/28/top-10-most-extreme-travel-adventures-in-the-world/
 INUIT
KNOWLEDGE
AND
http://www.isuma.tv/inuit-knowledge-and-climate-change/movie-noss

CLIMATE
CHANGE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCWK74ulb68