The Presidential Election in Argentina - Synopsis (April 2019)

THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION IN ARGENTINA
NATIONWIDE POLL 
9th April 2019
Synopsis Consultores Piedras 1141 5to. “E” ( C1140ABE) – City of Buenos Aires - Argentina
SAMPLE SUMMARY (NATIONWIDE)
SAMPLE: 2.372 OBSERVATIONS (in main Cities of the Country)

GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE (% DISTRIBUTION) GENDER DISTRIBUTION
16
7
19
5
20
12
11
14
15
52,1 47,9
21
9
10 2 18
3
4 23 24
1
6 MEN
HOMBRES WOMEN
MUJERES
27 26
AGE DISTRIBUTION
8
17
13
25 14,7
30,5
22
18,7
36,0
28
16-29 years
Entre 18 y 29 años 30-49 years
Entre 30 y 49 años
29 50-64 years
Entre 50 y 64 años More than 65 years
Más de 65 años
EDUCATION LEVEL DISTRIBUTION
10,2
CITIES
10,2
36,1
22,9
20,5
Elementary School completed Middle School incompleted
Primario Comp. o Incomp.
or incompleted Secundario Incompleto
Secundario Completo
Middle School completed High School incompleted
Terciario o Univers. Incomp.
High School or College Completed
Terciario o Univers. Comp.
9th APRIL 2019 synopsis.com.ar synopsis.com.ar

@SynopsisConsult | PÁGINA 1
info@synopsis.com.ar 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
o  The perception of Mauricio Macri’s government performance continued deteriorating in
April and has not found its floor yet: there was another fall in the positive opinion (-1.3)
while the negative perception rose (+1.7) compared to March. The difference between
the negative (58.8%) and positive image (23.9%) was -34.9%.
o  Concerns about Inflation climbed for the third consecutive month and rose by +2.9
p.p. (percentage points) in April, thus witnessing its highest value during the entire
administration of Cambiemos (44.6%). There was a slight increase in concerns about
Unemployment (+3.4%); resulting in 63.8% of concerns being related to economic
issues.
o  As for expectations, April started seeing the consolidation of improvements, both for
expectations about the country’s future and about people’s personal situation. Overall, we
observe a drop in pessimistic expectations and an increase in optimism about the future.
This phenomenon may be related to people’s expectations about the outcome of
presidential elections.
o  Regarding the elections, April’s government/opposition voting intention registered a

drop of -1.8 p.p. in the intention to vote for the government (taking it below 30% for
the first time) and an increase of +2.6 p.p. in the intention to vote for the opposition
(taking it to 57%). The level of undecided voters remained stable, on 13.2%.
o  When looking at the scenarios for the general elections, and assuming that Mauricio
Macri and Cristina Kirchner will be the candidates representing their respective political
forces, we presented three alternative scenarios to compare the performance of the three
main candidates for the coalition that that non-Kirchnerist Peronism and dissident sectors
of the Socialist and Radicalist parties are currently trying to build (hereby referred to as
the third alternative):
o  In all of the scenarios, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has the highest voting
intention, registering the worst performance in the scenario in which Lavagna is
the candidate for the third alternative (35.9%) and the best one in the scenario in
which Urtubey is the candidate representing that coalition (39.8%).
o  Mauricio Macri comes in second place, having the best performance with
Urtubey as the opposition candidate from the third alternative (31.2%) and the
worst performance with Lavagna as candidate of that coalition (28.8%).
o  Among the candidates of the third alternative, Roberto Lavagna has the best
performance, with a voting intention of 16.5%. He is followed by Sergio Massa
(10.7%) and Juan Manuel Urtubey (7.9%).
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
o  Assessing the ballotage scenarios between Mauricio Macri and the three main candidates
of the opposition (CFK, Lavagna and Massa), we can observe even scenarios when
Macri faces Cristina Kirchner (-0.7) and Sergio Massa (+0.7%), whereas it is visibly
unfavourable when Macri faces Roberto Lavagna (-14.6%). When making the
projection for undecided voters (based on re-asking the questions made in the polls),
Macri loses against all three candidates, with the most close-fought defeat taking
place in the scenario in which he competes against Cristina Kirchner (-1.8%), while
the worst performance for Macri takes place in the scenario in which he faces
Lavagna in the ballotage (-22.6%).
o  When looking at rejection levels and asking what the least desirable result is, 49.0%
believe that the victory of Mauricio Macri is the worst outcome, while the rejection
for Cristina Kirchner coming out victorious reaches 43.8%. There is no rejection for
Lavagna, who is probably favoured by the high rejection levels for the two other
candidates positioned at the two extremes of the political cleavage.
o  Among those who DO NOT want Macri to win, 66.9% believe that Cristina Kirchner
is the candidate best fit to defeat him. While among those who DO NOT want
Cristina Kirchner to win, 68.5% believe that Macri is the candidate in best condition
to defeat her.
o  Among those who wish Macri to lose, 17.5% is willing to change their vote to favour
his defeat, while among those wanting Cristina Kirchner to lose, 20.8% would change
their vote to make sure that she does not win. Among both groups, there exists a
percentage willing to vote strategically (tactical vote).

PUBLIC OPINION
CONTEXT

MAURICIO MACRI’S GOVERNMENT APPROVAL RATE
How do you rate Mauricio Macri’s government performance?

APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL
DK/NA
1.0
POSITIVE NEGATIVE
VERY
23.9 GOOD 58.8
9.4
GOOD
14.5 VERY BAD
43.0
AVERAGE
16.3
BAD
15.8
EVOLUTION OVER LAST 38 MONTHS (MARCH 2016-APRIL 2019)

60
50
40
30
20
10
0 M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A
2016 2017 2018 2019
POSITIVE
POSITIVA NEGATIVE
NEGATIVA AVERAGE
REGULAR

ISSUES FACING THE COUNTRY
In your opinion. what is the most important problem facing this

country?
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
44.6
63.8%
19.2
14.5
9.3
5.5 4.5
1.6 0.7
INFLATION UNEMPLOYMENT CORRUPTION CRIME EDUCATION DRUG HEALTH OTHER
TRAFFICING

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5 J F M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A
J F M A M J J A S O N D E
M A M J J A S O N D E
2016 2017 2018 2019
INFLATION
INFLACIÓN DESEMPLEO
UNEMPLOYMENT CORRUPCIÓN
CORRUPTION CRIME
INSEGURIDAD

EXPECTATIONS FOR THE COUNTRY’S FUTURE
How do you think the country’s economic situation will be in a

year’s time?
43.1
26.0
19.8
11.1
BETTER SAME WORSE DK/NA

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A
2016 2017 2018 2019
BETTER
MEJOR SAME
IGUAL WORSE
PEOR

EXPECTATIONS FOR FUTURE PERSONAL SITUATION
How do you think your personal economic situation will be in a

year’s time?
40.2
26.9
21.7
11.3
BETTER SAME WORSE DK/NA

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
M A M J J A S O N D E
J F M A
2016 2017 2018 2019
BETTER
MEJOR SAME
IGUAL WORSE
PEOR

2019 ELECTORAL
SCENARIOS

2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIOS
If the presidential elections were today. which party would you vote for?
57.0
29.8
13.2
Cambiemos Other party

Otra fuerza política Indeciso
Undecided
EVOLUTION OVER LAST 10 MONTHS (AUGUST 2018-APRIL 2019)

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
JUL AGO
AUG SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR
2018 2019
CAMBIEMOS OTHER PARTY
OTRA FUERZA POLÍTICA UNDECIDED
INDECISOS

@SynopsisConsult | PÁGINA10
2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (General Election)
If the presidential elections were today. which of these candidates would

you vote for? APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL - (LAVAGNA´S SCENARIO)
35.9
28.8
16.5
7.5 8.2
3.0
Mauricio Roberto Cristina Nicolás A otro
Other Indeciso
Undecided
Macri Lavagna Kirchner del Caño Candidate
candidato
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
Mujer
WOMEN 28.7 18.4 34.8 6.9 8.7
Hombre
MEN 28.9 14.5 37.2 8.1 7.7
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 18.4 23.5 41.3 6.7 6.9
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 27.1 15.6 35.3 9.3 9.1
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 37.8 11.4 33.5 7.0 8.3
65 años o mas
65 or + years 43.2 11.0 29.5 5.3 8.8
SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
APRIL 2019
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 31.4 20.3 33.9 5.7 6.6
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 28.1 12.7 40.7 5.2 11.0
Center of the Country
Centro 28.6 14.4 41.7 7.1 6.9
North of the Country
Norte 28.6 22.1 23.3 11.0 8.2
South of the Country
Patag. y Cuyo 29.3 19.0 31.7 9.7 6.6
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
SCENARIO BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
Elementary School
Primario 24.8 24.9 35.1 5.5 7.1
Middle School
Secundario 29.6 12.9 37.4 8.6 8.7
College
Terciario 31.0 15.0 34.4 10.0 8.4
Mauricio Macri Roberto Lavagna Cristina Kirchner Nicolás del Caño Other Candidate
A otro candidato Indeciso
Undecided


you vote for? APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL - (MASSA´S SCENARIO)
37,5
30,8
10,7 11,7
7,3
2,0
Mauricio Sergio Cristina Nicolás A otro
Other Indeciso
Undecided
Macri Massa Kirchner del Caño candidato
Candidate
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
Mujer
WOMEN 31,2 11,1 37,4 10,6 7,8
Hombre
MEN 30,4 10,3 37,5 12,9 6,7
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 21,6 12,0 44,4 14,3 6,3
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 28,7 10,8 36,5 13,2 8,2
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 39,2 9,0 34,3 9,3 6,9
65 or + years
65 años o mas 44,7 10,4 29,6 5,8 7,7
APRIL 2019
CABA 43,5 8,2 30,3 9,0 6,5
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 29,3 10,7 40,1 6,7 10,0
Centro 30,0 6,6 44,2 12,6 5,8
Norte 26,7 18,6 28,2 17,8 8,0
Patag. y Cuyo 33,5 10,6 34,2 13,5 4,2
APRIL 2019
Elementary School
Primario 30,4 14,6 40,1 7,9 5,5
Middle School
Secundario 29,4 9,3 37,6 12,3 8,7
College
Terciario 33,3 9,7 35,0 14,0 6,8
Mauricio Macri, Sergio Massa Cristina Kirchner Nicolás del Caño Other Candidate
Undecided


you vote for? APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL - (URTUBEY´S SCENARIO)
39,8
31,2
10,8
7,9 7,9
2,4
Mauricio Juan Manuel Cristina Other
Nicolás A otro Indeciso
Undecided
Macri Urtubey Kirchner del Caño candidato
Candidate
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
Mujer
WOMEN 32,6 7,3 38,3 9,2 9,6
Hombre
MEN 29,7 8,6 41,4 12,6 6,1
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 24,1 10,0 48,5 10,3 5,3
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 27,9 7,8 38,7 13,2 8,8
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 40,0 5,8 35,1 10,0 7,6
65 or + years
65 años o mas 42,9 6,5 30,3 7,1 11,6
APRIL 2019
CABA 43,4 5,4 35,5 8,6 6,2
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 28,8 6,5 42,4 7,4 10,4
Centro 32,0 4,0 44,9 10,6 7,6
Norte 26,7 15,2 33,4 15,2 7,6
Patag. y Cuyo 32,9 11,6 33,7 14,1 5,0
APRIL 2019
Elementary School
Primario 31,3 6,8 42,6 7,5 8,9
Middle School
Secundario 29,9 8,9 39,8 10,9 8,0
College
Terciario 33,1 7,3 37,3 13,6 7,0
Mauricio Macri Juan Manuel Urtubey Cristina Kirchner Nicolás del Caño Other Candidate Undecided

FLOW OF SUPPORTS BETWEN LAVAGNA´S AND MASSA ´S SCENARIOS

APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL- (SANKEY DIAGRAM)
Others Others
Undecided Undecided
FLOW OF SUPPORTS BETWEN LAVAGNA´S AND URTUBEY´S SCENARIOS

APRIL 2019 - NATIONAL TOTAL- (SANKEY DIAGRAM)
Others
Undecided
Undecided

2019 BALLOTAGE
SCENARIOS

2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIOS COMPARED
VOTING INTENTION IN THE DIFFERENT BALLOTAGE SCENARIOS

APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL DIFFERENCES
-
MACRI
vs.
CFK
44.3 10.8 45.0 0.7
MACRI
vs.
MASSA 42.7 15.3 42.0 0.7
MACRI
vs.
LAVAGNA 34.9 15.6 49.5 14.6
MACRI OPPONENT UNDECIDED
VOTING INTENTION IN THE DIFFERENT BALLOTAGE SCENARIOS

WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING) DIFFERENCES

MACRI
vs.
CFK
49.1 50.9 1.8
MACRI
vs.
MASSA 46.0 54.0 8.0
MACRI
vs.
LAVAGNA 38.8 61.2 22.4
MACRI OPPONENT UNDECIDED

2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-CFK
If the presidential elections were today and the outcome is defined in a ballotage
between Mauricio Macri and Cristina F. de Kirchner. who would you vote for?
44.3 45.0
MACRI CFK
49.1 INDECISOS
50.9
10.8
SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)

Baseline Scenario
Escenario base 44.3 10.8 45.0
Según tipo indecisos
By Undecided Type 44.3 4.8 6.0 45.0
Proyección indecisos
Projection for Undecided
Mauricio Macri Undecided (Macri) Undecided

Indecisos (Macri) Indecisos Undecided (CFK)
Indecisos (CFK) CFK
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY AGE GROUP
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 37.10 12.9 50.0
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 42.52 9.8 47.7
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 51.31 7.8 40.9
65 or + years
65 años o mas 54.59 12.3 33.1
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC AREA
CABA 54.0 6.3 39.7
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 41.1 12.7 46.2
Centro 42,4 8.6 49.0
Norte 41.8 15.0 43.2
Patagonia y Cuyo 53.4 8.5 38.1
Mauricio Macri Undecided
No sabe Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-CFK
between Mauricio Macri and Cristina F. de Kirchner. who would you vote for?
44,3 45,0
MACRI CFK
49.1 50.9
10,8

Baseline Scenario
Mauricio Macri Undecided (Macri) Undecided

Indecisos (Macri) Indecisos Undecided (CFK)
Indecisos (CFK) CFK
EVOLUTION OF BALLOTAGE´S SCENARIO BETWEN MACRI AND CFK (MARCH 2018-APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL)
60
50
BEGINIG OF THE CURRENCY CRISIS
40
30
20
10
0
MAR ´18 JUN. ´18 SEP. ´18 OCT.´18 DIC.´18 MAR.´19 ABR.´19
Mauricio Macri Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner Undecided
Indecisos

2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-LAVAGNA
between Mauricio Macri and Roberto Lavagna, who would you vote for?
34,9
49,5
MACRI LAVAGNA
38,8 INDECISOS
15,6
61,2

Baseline Scenario
Mauricio Macri Undecided (Macri)
Indecisos (Macri) Indecisos Undecided (Lavagna)
Undecided Indecisos (Lavagna) Roberto Lavagna
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 28.6 16.9 54.5
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 32.7 15.6 51.8
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 41.0 15.9 43.1
65 or + years
65 años o mas 45.3 13.1 41.6
CABA 47.3 15.9 36.8
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 30.6 19.5 49.9
Centro 35.6 15.0 49.5
Norte 34.6 15.3 50.2
Maurio Macri Undecided
No sabe Roberto Lavagna

2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-MASSA
between Mauricio Macri and Sergio Massa, who would you vote for?
42,7 42,0
MACRI MASSA
46,0 INDECISOS
15,3
54,0

Baseline Scenario
Indecisos (Macri) Undecided

Mauricio Macri Undecided (Macri) Indecisos Undecided (Massa)
Indecisos (Massa) Sergio Massa
16 y 29 años
16-29 years 36.4 12.8 50.8
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 41.2 17.7 41.1
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 48.5 15.4 36.1
65 or + years
65 años o mas 52.1 14.3 33.6
CABA 52.7 13.8 33.5
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 37.9 21.0 41.1
Centro 41.7 14.7 43.6
Norte 44.5 11.4 44.1
Maurio Macri Undecided
No sabe Sergio Massa

2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO LAVAGNA-CFK
between Roberto Lavagna and Cristina F. de Kirchner. who would you vote for?
44,6 41,9
LAVAGNA CFK
56.6 INDECISOS
43.4
13,5

Baseline Scenario
By Undecided Type
Según tipo indecisos 44.6 12.0 1.5 41.9
Roberto Lavagna Indecisos Undecided (CFK)
Indecisos (Lavagna) Undecided
Undecided (Lavagna) Indecisos (CFK) Cristina Kirchner
16 y 29 años
16-29 years 34.8 15.4 49.8
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 48.5 10.2 41.3
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 46.5 16.1 37.4
65 or + years
65 años o mas 53.1 14.1 32.8
CABA 40.3 22.0 37.7
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 44.8 10.1 45.1
Centro 39.9 14.3 45.7
Norte 52.6 12.5 34.8
Roberto Lavagna No sabe
Undecided Cristina Kirchner
9th of APRIL 2019 synopsis.com.ar synopsis.com.ar

ELECTORAL DYNAMIC
ACCORDING TO REJECT LEVELS
OF CANDIDATES

2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Rejection Levels)
Out of these candidates, who would you NOT want to win the elections?
49.0
43.8
5.8
1.5
Maurio Macri Cristina Kirchner Roberto Lavagna DK/NA
NS/NC
REJECT BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
Mujer 46.4 45.9 6.7
MEN
Hombre 51.8 41.4 4.8
REJECT BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 57.7 36.6 4.3
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 52.0 42.4 4.2
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 39.7 51.6 6.8
65 or + years
65 años o mas 35.2 52.1 11.4
REJECT BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
APRIL 2019
CABA 40.4 54.7 4.3
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 53.0 39.3 6.0
Centro 50.8 42.5 6.0
Norte 46.2 45.2 6.1
REJECT BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
Elementary School
Primario 48,4 39,1 11,7
Middle School
Secundario 50,8 43,0 4,4
College
Terciario 46,7 48,9 2,9
Maurio Macri Cristina Kirchner Roberto Lavagna DK/NA
NS/NC

And who do you think is best fit to defeat Macri?

APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING MACRI TO LOSE)
66.9 19.1 14.0
Cristina Kirchner Roberto Lavagna NS/NC

DK/NA
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
Mujer 66.1 18.0 16.0
MEN
Hombre 67.8 20.2 12.0
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 69.9 15.8 14.3
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 64.0 20.8 15.2
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 66.2 23.7 10.1
65 or + years
65 años o mas 67.9 17.8 14.3

APRIL 2019
CABA 78.2 8.7 13.1
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 67.9 17.9 14.2
Centro 73.3 14.6 12.1
Norte 50.2 31.6 18.2
Patag. y Cuyo 63.3 24.0 12.7
APRIL 2019
Primario
Elementary School 67.5 20.3 12.2
Middle School
Secundario 65.2 19.3 15.5
College
Terciario 69.3 17.5 13.1
Mauricio Macri Roberto Lavagna DK/NA
A otro candidato

And who do you think is best fit to defeat Cristina Kirchner?

APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING CFK TO LOSE)
68.5 14.8 16.7

NS/NC
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
Mujer 68.8 10.8 20.4
MEN
Hombre 68.2 19.3 12.5
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 68.3 15.6 16.1
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 68.9 13.6 17.5
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 66.4 16.0 17.6
65 or + years
65 años o mas 70.9 14.4 14.7

APRIL 2019
CABA 74.8 14.1 11.1
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 65.0 12.5 22.5
Centro 75.1 13.8 11.1
Norte 59.2 16.1 24.7
Patag. y Cuyo
South of the Country 70.3 19.9 9.8
APRIL 2019
Primario
Elementary School 68.3 12.2 19.5
Middle School
Secundario 72.1 12.1 15.8
College
Terciario 64.0 19.9 16.1
A otro candidato


2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Strategic Vote)
Would you be willing to change your vote if your candidate does not
guarantee Macri’s defeat?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING MACRI TO LOSE)
17.5 36.0 29.0 17.5
Si, estaría dispuesto

Yes, I Would Depende a qué otro tenga que votar
It depends on which other candidate has to vote
No, no lo cambiaria
No, I Wouldn´t No sabe
DK/NA
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
Mujer 16.5 34.2 28.9 20.3
MEN
Hombre 18.4 37.8 29.1 14.6
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16 y 29 años
16-29 years 15.6 36.9 25.7 21.7
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 19.1 37.9 31.1 11.9
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 21.0 33.3 30.1 15.5
65 or + years
65 años o mas 13.2 29.7 32.1 25.1

APRIL 2019
CABA 22.3 31.2 18.7 27.9
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 11.0 35.1 36.0 17.9
Centro 15.9 39.0 26.7 18.4
Norte 22.1 37.9 25.7 14.3
Patag. y Cuyo
South of the Country 28.1 31.1 30.9 9.8
APRIL 2019
Primario
Elementary School 18.3 26.1 28.6 27.1
Middle School
Secundario 11.9 40.7 31.1 16.3
College
Terciario 26.0 37.5 26.0 10.5
Yes, I Would
Si, estaría dispuesto It depends on which other candidate
Depende a qué otro tenga que votar No, I Wouldn´t
No, no lo cambiaria DK-NA
No, no lo cambiaria
has to vote

2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Strategic Vote)
Would you be willing to change your vote if your candidate does not
guarantee CFK´s defeat?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING CFK TO LOSE)
20.8 31.4 29.9 17.9

Yes, I Would Depende a qué otro tenga que votar
It depends on which other candidate has to vote
No, no lo cambiaria
No, I Wouldn´t No sabe
DK/NA
SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
Mujer 17.2 30.8 29.7 22.2
MEN
Hombre 24.8 32.1 30.2 12.9
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 10.3 42.0 28.4 19.2
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 23.3 32.8 28.3 15.6
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 29.0 25.4 27.4 18.2
65 or + years
65 años o mas 19.1 22.4 38.4 20.1

APRIL 2019
CABA 28.2 28.2 26.6 17.0
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 16.4 28.1 33.5 21.9
Centro 22.8 29.5 33.5 14.1
Norte 19.1 33.4 25.0 22.4
Patag. y Cuyo 22.3 41.4 24.2 12.1
APRIL 2019
Primario
Elementary School 18.6 18.1 35.6 27.6
Middle School
Secundario 19.1 34.4 30.7 15.8
College
Terciario 24.3 35.6 25.5 14.7
Yes, I Would
It depends on which other candidate
Depende a qué otro tenga que votar No, I Wouldn´t
No, no lo cambiaria DK-NA
No, no lo cambiaria

has to vote

POLLING METHODOLOGY
FIELDWORK DATE: 4th to 6th April 2019.

AREA: Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (AMBA by its Spanish
acronym) and main cities in the country’s provinces (La Plata, Mar del
Plata, Bahía Blanca, Tandil, San Nicolás, Rosario, Paraná, Comodoro
Rivadavia, San M. de Tucumán, Santa Fe, Córdoba, Mendoza, Salta,
Corrientes, Neuquén, Santa Rosa, La Rioja, Catamarca, San Luis, San
Juan, Posadas, Resistencia, Santiago del Estero, Formosa, Usuahia, Río
Gallegos, Formosa y Bariloche).
SAMPLE DESIGN: Stratified probabilistic sample by
population’s sex, age and level of education. Weighted by Sex,
Age, and Education Level according to census data.
UNIVERSE: Population of more than 16 years old. living in
private households with a land-line phone in the Buenos Aires
Metropolitan Area and the main cities of the nation’s
provinces.
SAMPLE SIZE: 2.372 observations.
COLLECTION TOOL: Structured Questionnaire.
SURVEY SYSTEM: Telephone survey (IVR - Interactive Voice
Response).
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL: 95.5%.
MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 2.0



The Presidential Election in Argentina - Synopsis (April 2019)

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The Presidential Election in Argentina - Synopsis (April 2019)

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THE PRESIDENTIAL

SAMPLE: 2.372 OBSERVATIONS (in main Cities of the Country)

EDUCATION LEVEL DISTRIBUTION

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o Regarding the elections, April’s government/opposition voting intention registered a

NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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How do you rate Mauricio Macri’s government performance?

EVOLUTION OVER LAST 38 MONTHS (MARCH 2016-APRIL 2019)

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In your opinion. what is the most important problem facing this

EVOLUTION OVER LAST 38 MONTHS (MARCH 2016-APRIL 2019)

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How do you think the country’s economic situation will be in a

BETTER SAME WORSE DK/NA

EVOLUTION OVER LAST 38 MONTHS (MARCH 2016-APRIL 2019)

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How do you think your personal economic situation will be in a

BETTER SAME WORSE DK/NA

EVOLUTION OVER LAST 38 MONTHS (MARCH 2016-APRIL 2019)

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Cambiemos Other party

EVOLUTION OVER LAST 10 MONTHS (AUGUST 2018-APRIL 2019)

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If the presidential elections were today. which of these candidates would

NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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If the presidential elections were today. which of these candidates would

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If the presidential elections were today. which of these candidates would

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FLOW OF SUPPORTS BETWEN LAVAGNA´S AND MASSA ´S SCENARIOS

FLOW OF SUPPORTS BETWEN LAVAGNA´S AND URTUBEY´S SCENARIOS

NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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VOTING INTENTION IN THE DIFFERENT BALLOTAGE SCENARIOS

VOTING INTENTION IN THE DIFFERENT BALLOTAGE SCENARIOS

NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)

Mauricio Macri Undecided (Macri) Undecided

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SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)

Mauricio Macri Undecided (Macri) Undecided

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SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)

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SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)

Indecisos (Macri) Undecided

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SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)

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And who do you think is best fit to defeat Macri?

66.9 19.1 14.0

Cristina Kirchner Roberto Lavagna NS/NC

SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION

NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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And who do you think is best fit to defeat Cristina Kirchner?

o  Regarding the elections, April’s government/opposition voting intention registered a