Breakthroughs in Airline Scheduling Whitepaper PDF

Breakthroughs
in Airline Scheduling:
Building Better Schedules
Index
The scheduling business problem 3
The airline scheduling process today 4
How airlines solve the scheduling business problem today 6
Opportunities for change 7
Top trends driving change 8
Where scheduling is going: Seven exciting new developments 10
1. “Clean sheet” optimization 10
2. Scheduling for reliability AND profitability 14
3. Producing operations-friendly schedules 18
4. Improving forecast accuracy 22
5. Integrating scheduling into the commercial area 24
6. Optimizing schedules after publication 26
7. Automating and streamlining schedule development 28
Conclusion 31
New Developments in Airline Scheduling 1
Executive Summary
• Airline scheduling is evolving rapidly, rewarding airlines with increased profits for moving
away from the status quo.
• Traditional approaches are overly complex, manual and miss opportunities to optimize
schedules for profitability and operational feasibility.
• Modern scheduling solutions leverage technology and airline industry trends to solve
inherent weaknesses in the scheduling process, allowing airlines to create schedules with
maximal profitability that are operationally feasible and reliable.
Foreword
A transformation is happening in the science and
practice of airline scheduling. Decades-old processes and
techniques are giving way to new approaches that enable
airlines to use cutting-edge technologies to produce
schedules that are more profitable, more reliable, and
quicker and easier to develop. This new technology is
opening up opportunities for driving new business value.
Given the impact that better schedule development has
on airline profitability, these improvements could deliver
a boost in one to three margin points.
This paper was commissioned by Amadeus and Optym

to help airlines explore and learn about the latest in
airline scheduling. The flight schedule is key to an
airline’s offering and a major factor in travelers’ purchase
decisions, so any improvement that provides passengers
with convenient options that better meet their travel
needs will also benefit the airline. What follows is an
overview of scheduling today and an in-depth look at
new developments in modern scheduling solutions
that empower airlines to maximize profitability and
operational feasibility—a real game changer for
the industry.
2 New Developments in Airline Scheduling
Where to fly.
When to fly.
What to fly.
The airline schedule states what an
airline intends to fly for a specific future
period including routes, connections,
daily patterns of service, timings, aircraft
assignments and aircraft rotations. Once
the schedule is defined, it is priced
and revenue-managed, sold
and operated.
The scheduling business problem
A
s critical as scheduling is, it poses a business partners, large international airlines serve up
situation that is easy to state but hard to to 100,000 origin-destination markets (O&Ds).
solve: finding the maximally profitable Within all of these O&Ds, there are differences
schedule that is also operationally feasible. This among passenger types. For example, some fly for
deceptively simple objective is complicated by a business, and some fly for leisure. Or some book
number of factors: flights months in advance, while others book the
day before. Proposed schedules must be attractive
Endless scheduling possibilities. Given traffic to all target customers to maximize profitability.
rights, airlines have the freedom to carry passengers
between any airports they serve. The more airports Uncertain future environment. Schedules
they serve, the more routes—or airport pairs—that must be finalized and available for sale months
are possible. The number can get very large. For in advance of their eventual operation. As such,
example, an airline that flies to 100 airports has the assumptions need to be made about competitor
possibility to flying (100 x 99)/ 2, or 4,950 routes. schedules, expected traffic volumes, available
Considering that airlines can schedule flights any resources and other factors. In addition,
day of the week and any time of the day, with any the dynamic nature of the airline operating
available aircraft type in their fleet, the decision environment means that changes often must be
space becomes unimaginably immense. made after the schedule is available for sale but
before the flights depart.
Complexity of operational feasibility. All
schedules must satisfy numerous operational Quality and timeliness of data. The quality of a
constraints—aircraft count, block times, ground proposed schedule is directly related to the quality
times, crew, maintenance, gates, slots, curfews and of the input data used to develop it. While airlines
more—to be “flyable.” Many of these constraints can be reasonably confident of some input data
are complex, yet accounting for all the dimensions such as airport locations or internal cost structure,
of operational feasibility is critical to ensure other key data are difficult to infer. For example,
schedules can actually be flown. there is no single, accurate source of industry-wide
origin-destination traffic volumes, and no airline
Different airline passenger types. Considering can be 100% confident that this essential data for
flight connections, especially between alliance developing schedules is accurate.
The airline scheduling process today
T
o make it more manageable, airlines typically solve their scheduling business problem—the need to
create profitable but operationally feasible schedules—by breaking the problem into separate sub-
problems and solving each sequentially (See Figure 1).
These processes are often performed on a cyclical basis (specifically steps two through six) and many different
schedules are in different phases of development at the same time.
Figure 1: Key airline

1 scheduling processes
Corporate Strategy
on Ro
ute
ati
2
8
er De
Op Align strategic objec�ves and
ve
business model assump�ons
le
lop
(full-service, fleet mix, etc.)
du
to be consistent with an De the e li rved as enc

l C ra d t th lly
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he
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ro pe e of a
e he f lon iat .
nt O nd ol pic
airline’s corporate
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th du ro g ed
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lin is co re
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sc -14 e d
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a
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re
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Be
Schedule aptation
A�er publica�on, it is o�en necessary

to change the schedule for opera-
Schedule Planning
Create a schedule with approxi-
�onal or commercial reasons,
thus requiring a systema�c
on a “typical week” basis.

mate �ming for all flights
scheduling environment
Fleet assignment is also

process to monitor the
performed as to best
match available fleet
and determine what
types with demand.

changes are
Ad
needed.
3
7
re r an str e kn ” sc into l we vert

On edu alize hed rna on en
ac cts the ts n edu “fu ”

sc n fi ub ex din etw ca s.
fle d ain ow h a ek
e t -
fo con sur ted le ica on
be en an pe e �o nt
ro c sc are op le lly
ce le h d, to l
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is tern s. he � ope 2 m
a u p c
e p d n b
�r re or ted l
th al De m ra o
th as it
in cie , t nd – 1
en d hed “ty ally
en in c n a
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ag airli �on een
e es ule ou on
e
th blic bet
en ne a 6
sc the anu
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e
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pe sou rect
d. es
M
v
Send the
a w
schedule to various
other internal stake-
ss ha h
e
Sch
holders at the airline, for

nt
review and analysis. The

me
n h
ed
schedule is then finalized

once these interested par�es have
lo p
ul e
provided feedback and appropriate

ub
ve
De
schedule changes have been done.
P
li c
at
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6
Sch
4
Sched
u l e Fi n a l i z a t i o n
—— Ad-hoc Process
—— Cyclical Process
5 —— Continuous Process
How airlines solve the scheduling

business problem today
T
he traditional approach to solving the airline scheduling business problem follows the sequential nature of
the business processes. Airlines apply a combination of data, models and algorithms and manual activities
to perform each step in sequence. As such, each step is individually optimized to the extent possible, given
available technologies (See Figure 2).
1
S
Corporate trategy
The defini�on of how an airline’s corporate strategy

tio ion
should inform its scheduling prac�ces is subjec�ve
Ro
era tat
and ad-hoc. There is no specific model for

in
ut
n
performing this step. Rather, each airline

thi me vers irline ade -com rm ch ges
6
Op ap
2
nc� mo on of use imp a�bl ck
eD
determines its own guidelines based
Th
an
fun ke�n analy lan. O S�ll o h mo shion

e
ma
ere n. So nnin nd g rs tak rs de -hoc

e
ass train hese n be f cre ort-t le ch
and Ad
on its underlying business model

c�o g p ses
r
rou larg proa in a m ec�ve
eve
nag n us el to heir fl high ve
is n me g fu roup e a velo
and marke�ng priori�es.

u
e
p
ro
con bility ons c aps” rm a ched
em ing perf ee ly-
t
dule
o c airli nc�
a
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om ne
l
lopm
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w
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.
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�ll ique nt p dex ( ccord ,

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Air dis s ch rpre .
on tech agem vice I &D twor
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Airlines use a schedule

is s
e
editor to make manual edits to

p
Pu
s�
im
t
n�
the schedule, and it is an important

e
le
bli
tool during the schedule development

re
du
t
and schedule finaliza�on steps. This tool

5
3
ca
permits graphical views, repor�ng, validity

he
s
nu
ti o
checks, edi�ng and communica�on of proposed

Sc
and historical schedules.

n
D ev
elopm Schedule lization
ent and Fina
Figure 2: Mapping
traditional solution approach
to business processes
4
Opportunities
for change
W
hile the traditional solution approach
has been in place for many years, it
has weaknesses. One of the most
fundamental is the fact that breaking down a
complex process into sequential steps inevitably
means that some information is lost. For
example, rather than adjusting the schedule later
in the process to account for the needs of other
departments, such as crew or maintenance,
imagine if those needs could be accounted for in
the optimization from the start. Or rather than
sequentially deciding fleet assignments, then
timings, then aircraft rotations, what if these accuracy of their forecasts or, worse yet, are
steps could be performed together? Solving unaware of how accurate their forecasts are.
a more holistic problem in one step could This inaccuracy can result from the quality of
produce a more profitable, operationally input data, the difficulty of calibrating traditional
feasible schedule. forecasting models, the way that traditional
forecasting models represent airlines’ revenue
The overall process is also manually intensive management practices, the cost of maintaining
with significant time pressure. While there is a model calibration team, and the immaturity of
variation, one schedule development cycle forecast accuracy metrics.
typically ranges from less than one month to
roughly six months. During this time, airlines Finally, many airlines have yet to take advantage
gather data, involve many departments and of opportunities to optimize all steps in the
perform numerous manual activities. Schedulers process. While the principle of performing
rarely feel they have sufficient time to evaluate optimization is well accepted in schedule
all the different scheduling scenarios, and worry planning, route development, schedule
about the impact on quality. After all, it is difficult development, schedule finalization and schedule
enough to develop one feasible schedule, not adaptation would all benefit from more advanced
to mention developing many and choosing the optimization technologies. It is a weakness of
best one. What’s more, time limitations influence the traditional solution approach that so much is
schedulers to use a series of shortcuts, such expected of airline schedulers.
as beginning development with the schedule
published during the same schedule period the These weaknesses are not new. Airlines and
previous year. their technology providers have attempted to
address them in recent years and have not been
Forecasting accuracy is also an issue. Reliable successful. However, because of recent trends
traffic, revenue and cost forecasts are critical in technology—and shifts in the airline industry
to identify the maximally profitable schedule. itself—a more modern approach to solving the
Yet many airlines are uncomfortable with the airline scheduling problem is possible.
Top trends driving change
T
he following key trends in technology than ever before, such as explicitly considering
and the airline industry are fueling the detailed crew and operations constraints in
possibility for airlines to offer a new, schedule planning. In addition, alliance and
modern solution approach to the airline partner schedules can be considered in the
scheduling problem. optimization, which allows and even encourages
alliance- or partner-friendly schedule changes.
More data processing power. With more data Finally, this extra processing capacity can be used
processing power, the technology to optimize a to automate key scheduling tasks more quickly to
proposed schedule can consider more factors reduce schedulers’ time and allow more schedule
scenarios to be considered.
Machine learning/artificial intelligence (AI).

The use of machine learning and AI algorithms
allows forecasts to be more accurate. It can
also reduce the burden of performing forecast
calibration work to the point that the solution
itself can be “auto-calibrated.” It is important that
these techniques supplement existing knowledge
about schedule forecasts and not become a kind
of “black box” so schedulers have an intuitive
understanding of the forecasting process. In
addition, increased use of these techniques
can contribute to better forecast accuracy
measurement and monitoring.
More shopping and booking data. New

shopping and booking data from key distribution
channels are now available. This gives airlines
insight into their passengers’ shopping requests,
what was displayed to them, and what they
ultimately chose. With this information, airlines
can infer the choice behavior of their (and their
competitors’) passengers and calibrate a much
more precise QSI (Quality of Service Index) model.
With the introduction of
Shopping data also gives a much more precise
sense of the days and times that passengers
Offer Optimization—a
prefer to depart by market than is possible from more integrated approach
only examining internal and MIDT data.
to how offers are
Importance of reliability in schedule
planning. As the worldwide aviation constructed, priced and
infrastructure is asked to handle more flights
and undergoes even more strain, airlines are
distributed—airlines now
increasingly looking to address this problem in
the schedule itself, not by just improving how
want scheduling solutions
operational problems are handled on the day of to integrate with revenue
departure. This is why schedulers are now under
more pressure than ever to play a major role management, pricing,
in addressing an airline’s on-time performance
issues, without significantly affecting schedule shopping and other
profitability.
commercial solutions
Employee turnover and new scheduler
profiles. As airlines experience turnover in their
scheduling departments, they can no longer New view of the scheduling function. A
afford the long lead time for new schedulers rough division of responsibilities took place in the
to manage complexity and become highly- past. Schedulers developed schedules, and then
specialized experts. Instead, they demand other commercial areas priced and sold them.
ways to quickly train new schedulers and ask With the introduction of Offer Optimization—a
the technology to perform detailed tasks that more integrated approach to how offers are
before were handled manually. In addition, constructed, priced and distributed—airlines
younger, digitally-savvy schedulers who grew up now want scheduling solutions to integrate with
using technology expect to be given scheduling revenue management, pricing, shopping and
solutions that reflect their own technology savvy. other commercial solutions.
Where scheduling is
going: Seven exciting
new developments
Harnessing these technology and industry trends,
Optym and Amadeus have built new, state-of-the-art
scheduling solutions that aim to solve weaknesses
in traditional airline scheduling solutions and deliver
advances in seven essential areas.
1. “Clean sheet” optimization
M
odern scheduling solutions can perform This capability ensures that a new, highly-
route development and schedule profitable schedule could be found even if
planning steps without resorting to a it is based on a significant amount of
“base” schedule, which is the schedule from the underlying changes. So, rather than accept
same period in the previous year. The schedule incremental increases in profitability from one
can be built entirely from the economics of the schedule to the next, an airline can consider
schedule network (e.g., passenger volumes in much larger changes that could lead to much
underlying markets, prevailing fares, competitive more profitability, if they are possible. By
schedules), airline resource constraints (e.g., casting a wide net, schedulers can be more
aircraft counts, airport gates/slots), and confident that the schedule they have
geography in key markets (e.g., block times, developed is truly profitable to the max.
circuity of connections in/out of main hub). (See Figure 3).
Traditional Scheduling
Tradi�onal scheduling methods limit the
flexibility on the kind and amount of changes it can
do to create a more op�mal schedule. As such, airlines
typically just use the previous period’s schedule
and then make minor changes
Traditional Scheduling
Tradi�onal scheduling methods limit the
flexibility on the kind and amount of changes it can
do to create a more op�mal schedule. As such, airlines
typically just use the previous period’s schedule
and then make minor changes
Block time changes

Retime entire network for
better passenger flow
Small timing changes
Swap aircra Allocate capacity to maxim

Block time changes passenger demand and me
Reti
operational requirements
Add/Delete Fits bett
Small timing changes
Swap aircra
Add/Delete Fits
Sub-Op�mal Schedule
eduling Clean-Sheet Scheduling
methods limit the Clean Sheet scheduling gives the airline
Clean-Sheet Scheduling
d amount of changes it can complete flexibility to develop various scenarios to
mal schedule. As such, airlines derive the most op�mal schedule by not restric�ng
Clean Sheet scheduling gives the airline
vious period’s schedule the airline with respect to the �ming, rou�ng,
hanges complete flexibility to develop various scenarios to Sub-Op�mal Schedule
market frequency, or capacity alloca�on
derive the most op�mal schedule by not restric�ng
the airline with respect to the �ming, rou�ng,
market frequency, or capacity alloca�on
Retime entire network for

better passenger flow
Small timing changes Evaluate the impact of differing
frequency or flight additions/deletions
Allocate
Evaluate thecapacity
impact to
of maximize
differing
passenger
frequency demand
or flight and meet
additions/deletions
operational requirements
Add/Delete Fits Optimal aircra routes considering:
- Crew considerations
- Route based maintenance
Optimal aircra routes considering:
- Crew considerations
- Route based maintenance
Mul�ple versions of the airline’s network based on

many inputs to determine the op�mal network
Figure 3: Differences between traditional
and clean-sheet scheduling
e versions of the airline’s network based on
inputs to determine the op�mal network
Depending on the degree of

schedule flexibility at an airline,
these new route and frequency
ideas have the potential to generate
significant additional value
Number of
Total Profit Total Non-Stop Connec�ng
Demand Connec�ng
(Weekly) Revenue Revenue Revenue
I�neraries
Base Schedule $7.2M $24.3M $13.5M $10.8M 150,000 8,500
Schedule Op�mized with Timings,

$8.1M $25.1M $13.6M $11.5M 154,000 8,745
Assignments, and Rota�ons
Difference (%) 12.5% 3.3% 0.7% 6.5% 2.7% 2.9%

Figure 4
Improved profit is a result Based on ideal flight �mes, Based on new connec�ons,
primarily of increased top- connec�ng revenue increases generate both new markets
line revenue due to flying significantly without as well as be�er services
more passengers. cannibalizing local passenger in exis�ng markets.
revenue.
This effect can be dialed up or down—an airline can Another example of clean sheet optimization is that
control the degree to which it considers substantial route development can be automated and
new changes. Consistency between one schedule and optimized. As such, airlines can use a technology
the next is desirable, and parameters are available in solution to suggest route and frequency ideas to
modern solutions to determine the appropriate trade- schedulers. Depending on the degree of schedule
off between consistency and the potential benefits flexibility at an airline, these new route and frequency
from incorporating new scheduling ideas. ideas have the potential to generate significant
additional value. This benefit can be estimated for
One example of this clean sheet optimization is any airline. Figure 5 shows indicative results for a
simultaneously determining flight departure and medium-sized airline.
arrival times, fleet assignments and aircraft rotations.
Normally, these factors are optimized separately and Generally speaking, depending on their degree of
sequentially and some value is lost. However, there is schedule flexibility and freedom to consider new
great value in performing the optimization together scheduling ideas, almost every airline should benefit
(See Figure 4). from a clean sheet scheduling approach.
Frequencies are defined as the total number of

Base Schedule Op�mized Schedule Difference
weekly aircra� movements. The airline in this
example operated 112 aircra�s opera�ng in 172
Weekly Frequencies 5257 5367 2.3%
routes. Base schedule, passenger traffic and revenue
are from publicly-available sources. The schedule
Weekly Traffic 726,000 746,000 2.8%
was op�mized by iden�fying more profitable
Weekly Revenue $190M $193M 1.3%
route/frequency ideas, including genera�ng more
connec�ons. The same total number of aircra�
$180M $180M
were used. Note that average u�liza�on stayed the
Weekly Cost
same in the op�mized schedule as in the base
Weekly U�liza�on 10:20 10:20
schedule. Revenue increases were indica�ve of
previous analyses at other airlines.
Figure 5
2. Scheduling for reliability AND profitability
I
n traditional schedule development, schedule many airlines are unhappy with their on-time
reliability is treated as an outcome of ensuring performance. With the increased focus on
key operational constraints are satisfied. As on-time performance—especially the extent to
long as all operational constraints are met, it is which reliability issues can be addressed in the
implicitly assumed that schedule reliability flight schedule itself—a different approach
is acceptable. is needed.
Recent experience shows the problems with In modern scheduling solutions, schedule
this assumption. In fact, there can be a wide reliability has been elevated as a key objective
variance in schedule reliability even when all along with schedule profitability. This change
operational constraints have been satisfied, and requires two key new capabilities. First, schedule
reliability must be estimated with acceptable
accuracy during the schedule development
process. Second, it must be possible to evaluate
trade-offs between these dual objectives.
Modern solutions use simulations to estimate

schedule reliability. To do this accurately, they
consider many factors, such as modeling block
times, runway capacity at different airports,
1 1 B
12
LAS
12
HOU
12
STL
12
ATL
Fl
HOU
2230 7% 2430 07:05 2% 12:00 2230 17% 2430 15:15 31% 17:45 w
12 2 -15 12 12
4 12
HOU STL ATL DEN HOU
2230 86% 09:40 10:20 74% 12:50 13:30 30% 14:50 15:25 63% 17:15 2 B
T
MDW 12 ATL
3 FLL
12 th
09:50 7% 12:45 2230 46% 2430 15:50 39% 17:45
12 12 12 12
1
HOU
2230 13% 2430
STL
08:40 31% 12:05
RSW
12:40 25% 1 Bottleneck
15:30
BDL
16:05Flights
35% 2430
HOU
3 D
12 12 Flights highlighted in red are the flights T
HOU STL -5 ATL it
:00 2230 17% 2430 15:15 31% 17:45 which impact network OTP the most.
Mar Apr 4 May Jun Jul Aug

27 301202 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26DEN
29 021205 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29
ATL 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 02 05
HOU 4 D
4% 12:50 13:30 30% 14:50 15:25 63% 17:15 2 Block Time Shortage D
3 identifies bottleneck flights generating
Figure 6: System large predictable delays and their propagationThis block
impact in needs 15 minutes of extra �me to improve
the network li
ATL FLL
12 the network OTP. Shortage is shown in red.
:45 2230 46% 2430 15:50 39% 17:45
12 12
:05
RSW
12:40
125% Bottleneck
15:30
BDL
Flights
16:05 35% 2430
HOU
3 Delay Likelihood
L
Flights highlighted in red are the flights This flight has a delay likelihood of 46%,
which impact network OTP the most. it will miss its OTP 46% of the �me.
HOU Jun Jul Aug

017:15
2 Block Time Shortage
23 26 29 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 02 05
4 Delay Propagation
This block needs 15 minutes of extra �me to improve Delay of Flight 2 is propagated down in the
the network OTP. Shortage is shown in red. line to all flights connected with red arcs.
17:45
OU
3 Delay Likelihood
This flight has a delay likelihood of 46%,
it will miss its OTP 46% of the �me.
staff and gates at different airports, aircraft scheduling decisions.
Aug turn times, maintenance and airline schedule
6 29 02 05
4recovery
Delay policies. To ensure the simulation is as
Propagation Details from the simulation can identify the
precise as possible,
Delay of Flight 2 some
is calibration
propagated down inand
the testing specific flights that are most at risk of being
line to all flights connected with red
must be performed. Experience has shown that arcs. delayed and propagating further delays to later
relatively simple schedule simulators do not flights (See Figure 6). These flights would be
have the accuracy required to make major candidates to add ground and/or block time,
scheduling decisions. if possible.
This simulation delivers statistics on expected Similarly, there may be some flights with little to
on-time performance for a proposed schedule, no risk of being delayed and affecting network
such as percentage of flights expected to arrive on-time performance that would be candidates
within 15 minutes of scheduled arrival time to cut ground and/or block time. As such, trading
(“A+15”%), expected completion percentage, and off the twin objectives of schedule profitability
expected number of misconnected passengers. and reliability can be reduced to selectively
These statistics can be compared with output adding ground/block time into the schedule
from a schedule forecasting solution such as load where it is most needed and reducing it where it
factor, RASK, revenue, cost and profit to inform is not.
OTP Gain vs Hours Invested

OTP Gain 0.14% 0.07%
0.23%
Investment = 0 hours Base Schedule Op�mized Schedule 0.31%
0.36%
Arrival Performance (A14) 83.5% 85.8% 0.5%
2.3%
Block Hit Rate 82.4% 82.1%
3.9%
Turn Compliance 60.7% 64.4%
Departure Performance (D0) 67.7% 71.6%

Profitability -0.03%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Hours Invested
Combination of budget investment and constraint relaxations can drive larger benefits.
Figure 7: Optimized schedule at different investment options with marginal drop in profitability
Figure 7 illustrates the effect of this process What potential financial benefits are possible
of optimizing schedule performance by with improved on-time performance? The US
selectively adding in (or taking out) time in the Federal Aviation Administration has estimated
schedule where needed. This figure is based the operating cost as $57 per delay minute and
on representative data and illustrates that an passenger cost as $67 per delay minute —or
improvement in on-time performance is possible roughly $120 per delay minute—for an aircraft
even when not adding in any net additional time. with 150 seats.1 Experience has shown that
The figure also illustrates the diminishing returns modern scheduling systems can improve on-time
effect on on-time performance when adding performance by an average of 3% with little to no
larger net amounts of time into the schedule. impact on schedule profitability (See Figure 8).
1
“Total Delay Impact Study: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Costs and Impacts of Flight Delay in the United
States.” Ball, Barnhart, Dresner, Hansen, Neels, Odoni, Peterson, Sherry, Trani, Zou. Nextor. October 2010.
Optimizing both
profitability and reliability
will drive significant value
to our business, whilst
maintaining and enhancing
the quality of our schedules
for our customers
Andrew Salt, Network Optimization Manager, easyJet
Total Annualized Savings in Delay-Related Costs
$ $
Flights On-�me Delay Cost Average Delay Cost

Performance per Minute Delay per Day
Base
Schedule 75% $3M
2,000 $120 50 min.
Op�mized
Schedule 78% $2.6M
$150 Million
Total Annualized Savings in Delay-Related Costs
Depending on your network structure, studies show that an optimized schedule
can improve OTP by 3%, without impacting network profitability.
Figure 8
3. Producing operations-friendly schedules
O
ne major feature of modern scheduling scheduler could propose rotations based purely
solutions is that they can reflect the on scheduling constraints and may not be aware
needs of departments like operations that the resulting rotations could produce
planning, crew and maintenance into the inefficient crew pairings. Once a proposed
schedule development process. This feature schedule is reviewed by an airline’s crew
produces schedules that are friendly to these planning department, these inefficiencies would
critical departments. Less rework is needed once likely be noted and requests made for changes.
these affected departments review the schedule But by this point, a significant amount of time
and provide their feedback, reducing schedule may elapse.
development time and improving quality.
In contrast, modern scheduling solutions address
One example of this effect relates to the this problem by clearly including crew-friendly
determination of flight rotations—or aircraft rules into the process of determining aircraft
routings—during the schedule development rotations. These rules can reflect well-known
process. With the traditional approach, a flight crew planning practices (See Figure 9).
In the example below, the duty limit is 9 hours. By swapping routes, the du�es can be reduced.
Duty 1 Duty 2 Duty 3
5 Hours 5 Hours 3 Hours 2 Hours 2 Hours

1 2 3 4 5
Duty 1 SWAP Duty 2 5 Duties
1
2 Hours
2
2 Hours
3
2 Hours
4
2 Hours
5
2 Hours
6
2 Hours
7
2 Hours Input Schedule
Duty 1 Duty 2
5 Hours 2 Hours 2 Hours 2 Hours 2 Hours 2 Hours

1 3 4 5 6
4 Duties
2
Duty 1 Duty 2
1
2 Hours
2
2 Hours
3
5 Hours
4
2 Hours
5
2 Hours
6
2 Hours Op�mized Schedule
Figure 9
Modern scheduling
solutions include
crew-friendly rules into
the process of determining
aircraft rotations
Value Proposition - Crew Improvement Results

Below is an example of a large airline with more than 500 aircra�. By op�mizing the rota�ons, the system
was able to reduce the number of du�es required for each rota�on and increase overall u�liza�on
# of Cabin Avg. Cabin # of Pilot Avg. Pilot

Du�es Duty Time Du�es Duty Time
Base Schedule 1615 7.68HR 1577 8.10HR
Op�mized Schedule 1487 8.30HR 1457 8.71HR
Difference (%) -7.9% 8.1% -7.6% 7.5%
Difference (Annualized) ~6K Du�es 32.28HR ~6K Du�es 31.7HR
Figure 10
The value of this optimization can be significant. Of course, this example is one among many.
Figure 10 shows the improvement in the number Other examples of operational-friendly schedules
of pilot and cabin “duties” when the schedule include increasing out and back flights to the
has been optimized to produce crew-friendly crew base which reduces overnight/hotel costs
schedules. Importantly, schedule profitability has for the airline. The additional benefit is that the
not been sacrificed to produce this result. crew spends more time at home, which provides
a better quality of life.
Another example of operational-friendly

schedules is the capability of incorporating route-
based maintenance. This functionality avoids the
schedule having locked rotations and ensures
that aircraft are hitting maintenance bases after
an aircraft reaches the required interval of cycles,
flight/block hours or total time.
Producing operational-friendly schedules earlier in the schedule development process supports the trend
towards the blurring of the lines between the eight process steps described above. This trend is illustrated in
Figure 11 whereby in future, distinctions between the major scheduling steps become less apparent, and a new
modern schedule development processes is more of a continuum.
1
Corporate Strategy
on Ro
ute
ati
2
r
8
e De
Op
ve
le
lop
du
he
me
Sc
nt
Schedule aptation
Schedule Planning
Ad
3
7
Sch
nt
me
ed
ul e
lo p
ub
ve
De
P
lic
at le
io n du
6
e
Sch
4
Sc he d
ule Finalization
5
Figure 11
4. Improving forecast accuracy
A
s with traditional approaches, modern monitored and reported to schedulers so they
scheduling solutions will continue to have can understand the effectiveness of the solutions
a schedule forecasting module, but this they are using. In addition, modern solutions can
module will be auto-calibrated based on state- diagnose causes of error as part of prioritizing
of-the-art machine learning and AI algorithms. future research (See Figure 12).
This makes for a more complete and accurate
treatment of passenger choice behavior. In Reducing forecast error can generate significant
addition, airlines can expect to lower the cost of benefits. Simulation studies have shown that a
maintaining staff to calibrate this module. 20% improvement in forecast accuracy ( i.e. from
15% error to 12%), can improve top-line revenue
In a modern scheduling solution, forecast by up to 1% through better route selection, fleet
accuracy will be automatically measured and assignment and timings.2
Average Flight Forecast Error

This chart illustrates measuring and repor�ng forecast error on a quarterly basis. Forecast error is defined as the average absolute percentage
difference between the forecast of passenger traffic on a specific flight during a par�cular �me period and actual traffic on that flight. Sources for
this error are iden�fied and a�ributed to different causes. One of these causes is the underlying natural varia�on in passenger demand—given the
uncertainty and inherent randomness in passenger demand, there will always be some difference between any forecast and actual sta�s�cs. No
forecas�ng model will ever be able to reduce total error below this amount. However, it is possible to reduce errors caused by the other sources.
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Y1Q1 Y1Q2 Y1Q3 Y1Q4 Y2Q1 Y2Q2 Y2Q3 Y2Q4
Natural Varia�on Market Size Schedule Market Share Model Traffic Model
Figure 12
2
“Value of forecast accuracy”. Schneider et al. Optym. 2019.
Origin Destination Date & Time
Paris (all airports) New York City (all airports) 05 - 13 - 2019 6am -12pm One Way
1 Adult 0 Child Business Class Search
Op�on 1 Op�on 2 Op�on 3 Op�on 4
$6,215 $5,345 $5,615 $5,566

05/13/2019 8h05m 05/13/2019 05/13/2019 8h15m 05/13/2019 05/13/2019 8h15m 05/13/2019 05/13/2019 8h05m 05/13/2019
09:45 Direct
11:50 11:50 Direct
14:05 08:00 Direct
10:15 09:45 Direct
11:50
CDG EWR CDG JFK CDG JFK CDG EWR
Flight Details Add to Plan Select Flight Details Add to Plan Select Flight Details Add to Plan Select Flight Details Add to Plan Select
Chosen Flight
Figure 13
One way to reduce forecast errors is to use new However, a new data source is now available
sources of data. For example, curves depicting based on actual shopping requests made by
passengers’ preferred time of departure are one customers. These data can show when customers
key input into schedule forecasting solutions. preferred to fly and provide a new way to
These preferences can vary by market, even by produce those preferred time-of-day curves.
the direction of the market. (See Figure 13)
Historically, deriving such curves has been More to the point, these data provide a window
very difficult given the nature of available data. into the overall customer choice process beyond
Data showing strong customer preference the ability to produce time-of-day curves. These
around, for example, a 10:00 am departure data provide an excellent source for the machine
may only be due to the lack of alternative flight learning algorithms embedded within the
options. This inherent bias makes it difficult for auto-calibration routines to learn from, further
schedulers to predict customer reactions to new improving the calibration of the forecasting
flight times. model and accuracy.
5. Integrating scheduling into the commercial area

SkySYNC
A
irlines have acknowledged the benefits of
an integrated approach to developing their
core product, dynamically constructing
and pricing those offers and distributing them
across key distribution channels. In fact, they
have established a new name for this principle:
Offer Optimization (See Figure 14). The basic
premise behind Offer Optimization is that the
sharing of information among departments
involved in developing, pricing and distributing
offers to customers will result in better offers,
more revenue and happier customers. This
approach replaces the traditional siloed method
of performing key commercial functions
sequentially and in relative isolation.
Developing an optimal flight schedule is a key

part of Offer Optimization. In fact, the core part
of the product being sold in Offer Optimization—
the markets served, itineraries, timings and
more—is actually generated during the schedule
development process. If the published schedule
is not attractive to customers, there is relatively
little that other Offer Optimization processes can
do to generate significant incremental revenue.
The power of Offer Optimization comes from
building an optimal schedule in the first place
and then sharing associated information to
ensure that the schedule fuels additional
revenue opportunities.
Modern scheduling solutions automatically

generate information for effective Offer
Optimization. This includes data on the customer
choice process, including an estimate of price
elasticities. It also includes an awareness of
customer travel patterns and information on
competitor schedules to construct offers to
attract competitors’ customers.
Merchandising
Offer *Probability of
upsell, when &
what channel
Optimization
Model Shopping
*Sensitivity to the
service bundle
& choice
Market data
Dynamic Pricing
*Sensitivity to the
Airline data price, willingness
to pay & strategic
mark-up
Customer data
Revenue
Data enters Management
1 the system
& Availability
Offers are created
*Sensitivity to the 3 that truly match
itinerary, service traveler needs!
bundle & price
Network &
Schedule
Data is processed & exchanged
Planning
2 through customer choice modeling
*Sensitivity to
based on different factors
the schedule
Data flows continuously
Customer Choice Modeling* 4 to enrich the system &
shape future offers
Figure 14
Under the principle of Offer Optimization, all of this information is shared across all
applications involved in constructing, pricing and distributing the offer. New capabilities
offered by modern solutions based on this sharing of information include:
More accurately reflecting revenue Using price- and schedule-sensitive

management practices when demand forecasts in revenue management
producing schedule forecasts, such as to quickly adapt to market changes.
better understanding the relationship
between revenue and capacity as part Producing estimates of upgrade
of aircraft fleet assignment. probabilities based on competitive fares
and schedules for use in determining
Developing a forecasting continuum optimal upgrade fees.
so that long-term scheduling and
medium- to short-term revenue Optimizing strategic and tactical (dynamic)
management forecasts seamlessly pricing decisions based on the competitive
blend together. schedule.
6. Optimizing schedules after publication

SkySLOTS
A
irlines typically finalize and publish their Airlines frequently change their schedules for
schedules six to 12 months before their many operational reasons, such as weather
eventual operation. While the schedule issues or an aircraft coming out of service, for
may best reflect known market conditions at example. Airlines have little choice in making
the point of publication, it is not at all unusual these kinds of schedule changes. Given the
for new market conditions to arise after potential disruption caused by schedule changes,
publication that would cause the schedule to be however, it is not surprising that they choose to
suboptimal. However, airlines have traditionally limit any additional changes.
been reluctant to change their schedule for
commercial reasons after publication, and may However, two trends have emerged that permit
miss important revenue opportunities. a greater degree of schedule adaption after
Current Routing Routing to Capture More

and Passenger Demand Passenger Demand
98 144
320 320
100 100
LHR OSL
CDG 119 MAD 162

319 319
OSL LHR
FRA ZRH
MAD CDG
FCO HEL
ZRH FRA
144 98
HEL FCO
85 85
Flight Flight
162 119
320 319
Poten�al Passengers Accommodated Poten�al Passengers Accommodated
317 + 325 = 642 394 + 302 = 696
150 seats 120 seats
54 More Passengers
Figure 15
Post Publication Schedule Changes

An airline receives word that one of their new aircra� deliveries is going to be late. The airline has already published
its schedule based on the fact of having this aircra�. Canceling their schedule can cause significant impact to their schedule,
and ul�mately, their passengers. Op�miza�on can mi�gate this risk through effec�ve swapping and canceling of flights.
Schedule Using Schedule Using

Original Schedule
Conventional Tools Next Generation Tools
TIME
FLIGHTS
The schedule is represented Op�miza�on will provide a solu�on with minimal

The schedule becomes highly fragmented resul�ng in
as a grid puzzle impact to passenger i�neraries and revenue
disrup�on when conven�onal methods are applied
Figure 16
publication. For one, there are better tools to shields the company from the revenue dilution
selectively identify only those changes that that may occur as a result of the situation. This
meet an acceptable threshold of additional also does not account for the possible negative
profitability. And there are better tools to impact that the airline may experience by
manage passenger re-accommodation, which displacing valued customers.
limits dissatisfaction or revenue leakage.
With modern scheduling solutions, airlines have

the same ability to optimize a schedule before
and after publication. Figure 15 represents a
scenario where an airline has seen increased
demand for certain flights. With the use of new
technology, the airline can capitalize on these
market changes and position itself to capture
demand and improve revenue.
Another example of post-publication

optimization is when an airline tries
to mitigate risk associated with
some form of operational change
(presumably a negative one) (See
Figure 16). In these situations, the
airline wants to ensure that it has
achieved a feasible solution that
is operationally sound and also
7. Automating and streamlining schedule development
M
odern scheduling solutions anticipate violations. A proposed schedule may violate
and suggest schedule changes, rather constraints such as an airport curfew, minimum
than requiring users to always think ground time violation or aircraft assignment, for
through fixes to resolve feasibility problems example. The micro-optimizer will quickly find
with the schedule. Rather than receiving a list solutions that resolve the violation with minimal
of schedule problems to be addressed, users impact to the schedule.
of modern solutions review and accept or
reject suggested changes made by the solution. For example, Figure 17 shows a business rules
This feature is most apparent in modern new violation. In this case, the number of staffed
schedule editors and is possible thanks to gates is inadequate to operate the highlighted
micro-optimizers that solve simple, standard flight. Modern solutions allow schedulers to
scheduling conflicts. highlight any violation and click the quick fix
button to invoke a micro-optimizer to best
Unlike global optimizers that solve for global resolve the violation.
profitability, micro-optimizers focus on
performing a specific, individual task. They do Selecting any of the proposed solutions will detail
this by applying the same sort of business logic the flight changes and provide the scheduler
used by schedulers and by taking advantage of with a button to automatically implement the
new processing power to quickly evaluate many schedule change.
possible solutions. Micro-optimizers deliberately
find solutions with as few changes to the The business rules violations and options for a
schedule as possible to avoid introducing any quick fix are all integrated into a simple workflow
new problems. for users to review. With the interactive and
iterative nature of this screen, schedulers can
One excellent example of using micro-optimizers quickly and efficiently fix violations and produce
in the schedule development process is to solve an operational schedule.
Violations
Category Sub Category Descrip�on
Marketing Day PM Anchors PM Flight is the last trip and TUS-SAN-2 departs at 11:40 while the
marketing day’s PM anchor is 12:00
Max Turn Time By Station Flight OAK-BUR-4 10:10 is turning BUR-PHX-3 12:05 in 50 min, while
the maximum turn time required by station BUR is 45min.
Gates Staffed Gates At Airport BWI for arrival Flight 225, 3 aircraft on ground but only 2
gates. Next available gate at 16:45
Quick Fix
Fixed Flight Fixed Time The Departure/arrival time of the fixed flight VWI-JAX-1-08:20 -08:45 ROW100230
is not satisfied
Quick Fix Options

Option No. Affected Flights Equip. Changes Time Changes Cancelled Flights
A 4 0 4 0 Apply
B 5 2 0 0
C 6 0 6 0
D 5 4 2 0
Schedule Compare
Modern solutions Flight No. Dept. Airport New Dep. Time Arr. Airport New Arr. Time New Turn Time
allow schedulers to
225 DAL 1245(+30) BWI 1645(+30) 35(-5)
225 BWI 1720(+25) BDL 1830(+30) 35(-5)
highlight any violation 225 BDL 1905(+20) TPA 2210(+30) 45(0)
and click the quick 225 TPA 2235(+20) MIA 0030(+30) 350(0)
fix button to invoke a

micro-optimizer to best Figure 17
resolve the violation

The Amadeus Sky Suite by

Optym tools will enable us to
offer more to our customers
through better network
planning and uncovering
new ways to continue
growing our network in
a meaningful way
Adam Decaire, Vice President Network
Planning, Southwest Airlines.
Conclusion
From developments to value
T
he seven new developments described power of optimization and automation into the
above represent a breakthrough in solving schedule development process. With these
the airline scheduling business problem. new developments, schedulers can be even
These developments will allow airlines to better more effective in applying their judgment rather
meet their objective of creating a flight than performing clerical tasks. Today, modern
schedule with maximal profitability that is solutions suggest ideas to the scheduler on
operationally feasible and reliable. Applying improving profitability and reliability as well as in
this technology will allow airlines to make a fixing problems.
step function improvement on the quality of
their schedule. Amadeus and its partner Optym strongly
believe that the practice of airline network
The holy grail of airline scheduling is to build a planning is ready for new thinking and new
system which can instantly and automatically solutions. Together, they offer a solution suite
optimize the profitability and reliability of the called the Amadeus Sky Suite by Optym that
schedule. Although this is still a theoretical embodies these seven new developments. By
vision, by understanding the different phases taking advantage of Optym’s breakthrough
of the airline scheduling problem, we’re getting mathematical models and Amadeus’ airline
closer to solving it. And integrating the judgment industry expertise and global reach, airlines
of expert schedulers into the development can improve performance and profitability for a
process will always be a critical part of designing whole new approach to determining where to
any scheduling solution. fly, when to fly and what to fly. In addition, the
partners also offer consulting, services, and data
Therefore, these seven new developments products to help airlines optimize and unlock
are an important step forward in applying the value from their flight schedule.
About Optym About Amadeus
Founded in 2000, Optym specializes in building Travel powers progress. Amadeus powers
decision automation and optimization solutions travel. Amadeus’ solutions connect travelers to
for the transport industry. The company the journeys they want through travel agents,
develops intelligent solutions for companies to search engines, tour operators, airlines, airports,
reduce their operational costs, increase their hotels, cars and railways.
profitability and improve service quality. With
offices in the United States, India, Armenia and We have developed our technology in
Australia, Optym is truly a global presence in the partnership with the travel industry for over
transportation software industry. 30 years. We combine a deep understanding
of how people travel with the ability to design
Every company faces their own unique business and deliver the most complex, trusted, critical
optimization problems. Many decisions that systems our customers need. We help connect
were once made by humans are now made by over 1.6 billion people a year to local travel
machines, and Optym is taking this mentality providers in over 190 countries.
to the transportation industry. Their specialized
knowledge has already provided solutions to We are one company, with 17,000 employees
some of the biggest names in the airline industry across 70 offices. We have a global mindset and
including Southwest Airlines. Optym also a local presence wherever our customers
provides solutions to numerous other industries, need us.
including Walmart, Office Depot and BHP Billiton.
Our purpose is to shape the future of travel.
As our world moves further into the digital We are passionate in our pursuit of better
age and technologies become more advanced, technology that makes better journeys.
Optym is quickly becoming a worldwide leader in Amadeus is an IBEX 35 company, listed on the
transport optimization. Spanish Stock Exchange under AMS.MC.
To find out more about Amadeus, visit
To find out more about Optym, visit www.amadeus.com.
www.optym.com
About this paper

This paper was written by Amadeus and Optym professionals Jim Barlow and Renzo Vaccari,
in order to explore the challenge of airline scheduling and share knowledge about
solutions that are available in the market today.
Renzo Vaccari Jim Barlow

OPTYM AMADEUS
Senior Vice President – Airline Solutions Vice President – Strategic Consulting
Renzo has over 20 years of leadership experience Jim Barlow is an experienced leader with a
designing and building airline software solutions, history of building innovative and profitable
specifically in the areas of airline network airline decision support systems.  Jim is
planning and scheduling, product management currently VP, Strategic Consulting at Amadeus
and advanced decision support systems. where his role is to support the development
of new solutions and the introduction of
At Optym, Renzo plays a key role in defining new technologies at Amadeus.  Jim’s specific
the roadmap of Sky Suite, Optym’s new- interests lie in the area of airline commercial
generation network planning and flight schedule planning, specifically the areas of network
optimization system. He is also responsible for planning, revenue management, reservations,
global product management, marketing and e-commerce, and pricing.  Before joining
sales for the Sky Suite of airline network planning Amadeus, Jim was Chief Research Officer at
and scheduling solutions including optimization, T2RL and an independent consultant who
simulation, schedule management and specialized in advising large-scale
demand forecasting. PSS implementations, and he also
worked at American Airlines for
renzo.vaccari@optym.com several years.
jim.barlow@amadeus.com
optym.com/sky

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Breakthroughs

The airline scheduling process today 4

How airlines solve the scheduling business problem today 6

Opportunities for change 7

Top trends driving change 8

Where scheduling is going: Seven exciting new developments 10

1. “Clean sheet” optimization 10

2. Scheduling for reliability AND profitability 14

3. Producing operations-friendly schedules 18

4. Improving forecast accuracy 22

5. Integrating scheduling into the commercial area 24

6. Optimizing schedules after publication 26

7. Automating and streamlining schedule development 28

This paper was commissioned by Amadeus and Optym

The scheduling business problem

The airline scheduling process today

Figure 1: Key airline

to be consistent with an De the e li rved as enc

A�er publica�on, it is o�en necessary

on a “typical week” basis.

Fleet assignment is also

types with demand.

re r an str e kn ” sc into l we vert

ac cts the ts n edu “fu ”

en d hed “ty ally

holders at the airline, for

review and analysis. The

schedule is then ﬁnalized

provided feedback and appropriate

How airlines solve the scheduling

The deﬁni�on of how an airline’s corporate strategy

should inform its scheduling prac�ces is subjec�ve

and ad-hoc. There is no speciﬁc model for

performing this step. Rather, each airline

fun ke�n analy lan. O S�ll o h mo shion

ere n. So nnin nd g rs tak rs de -hoc

on its underlying business model

and marke�ng priori�es.

em ing perf ee ly-

n w llec sed get c

rfo i�es ividu

�ll ique nt p dex ( ccord ,

on tech agem vice I &D twor

n u the s see if each

ma ill a ﬂec le Q ark

Airlines use a schedule

editor to make manual edits to

the schedule, and it is an important

tool during the schedule development

and schedule ﬁnaliza�on steps. This tool

permits graphical views, repor�ng, validity

checks, edi�ng and communica�on of proposed

and historical schedules.

Top trends driving change

Machine learning/artificial intelligence (AI).

More shopping and booking data. New

1. “Clean sheet” optimization

Block time changes

Swap aircra Allocate capacity to maxim

Retime entire network for

Mul�ple versions of the airline’s network based on

Depending on the degree of

Base Schedule $7.2M $24.3M $13.5M $10.8M 150,000 8,500

Swap aircra Allocate capacity to maxim