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THAILAND:
Aging Society &
Economic Challenges
26 February 2019
The Situation
2
Unlike most aging economies,
Thailand is middle-income
Thailand
37.7
3
Thailand is aging quickly
Population over 60 years old
4
Average age has been rising
5
Number of working-age
population is falling
Population 15-59 years old
6
In 15 years, almost half of Thais
will be above 50 years old
Thailand’s demographic structure
Men
2017 Women Men 2032 Women
Age Age
Million
• Largest share of Thais (~10m) are • Largest share of Thais (~10m) are
40-50 yrs old 55-65 yrs old
• 12 million are over 60; 4m over 70 • 20 million will be over 60 with
yrs old almost 10 million over 70 yrs old
• More are women • More are women 7
Most elderlies today have low
education levels
8
Majority of elderlies make
less than Bt100,000 (US$3,125)/year
9
Elderlies rely on themselves and
their children for incomes
10
Formal sector pension coverage
in Thailand is low
% of Workers & Retirees in Formal Sector Pension
Source: World Bank, Live Long and Prosper: Aging in East Asia and Pacific (2015)
11
Urban women in Thailand leave
labor force earlier than other groups
Source: World Bank, Live Long and Prosper: Aging in East Asia and Pacific (2015)
12
Poverty is high among households in
Thailand with older heads
Source: World Bank, Live Long and Prosper: Aging in East Asia and Pacific (2015) 13
Economic Implications
14
Economic implications of
an Ageing Society
15
Thailand’s share of labor force is
falling
Thailand’s population (Million) Thailand’s share of labor force (%)
16
Public health care expenditures have
risen quickly over the past 20 years
Percent
17
Public health care expenditures will
triple in 15 years!
Billion Baht
20
Preparing for Aged Thailand
21
Policy options to lower dependency
& sustain economic growth
1. Raising retirement age & incentives for hiring elderly
2. Increasing female labor force participation
Labor Policies
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Singapore Malaysia Thailand Phillpines Indonesia
Others Others
1% Agriculture
6% 1%
Agriculture
31%
Manufacturing Services
28% 45%
Services
62%
Construction
3% Manufacturing
Construction 17%
6%
24
Thailand’s labor force will decline
by more than other ASEAN countries
Source: World Bank, Live Long and Prosper: Aging in East Asia and Pacific (2015) 25
More Policy Options
27