Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Agenda
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Background
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
The Greenhouse Effect
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Causes of Climate Change
1) Natural Forcings
e.g. Solar variation (sunspots), volcanic activities
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Global Warming
Source:
Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal,
Hadley http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/
Centre for Climate Prediction and Research page/3061.aspx
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
• Pre industrial
atmospheric CO2
conc ~ 270 ppm
• Latest reading
(Keeling data from
Mauna Loa, Hawaii)
= 385 ppm
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Impacts: Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change in Hong Kong
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Scenarios - Rainfall
# 2090-2099
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Scenarios – Extreme Rainfall
and Sea Conditions
Variable Current Impact Lower Upper Confidence
Conditions (2100) bound bound
Yrs with extremely low 2 years 3.6 n/a n/a Low
rainfall (1885-2008)
Yrs with extremely high 3 years 9.7 n/a n/a Low
rainfall (1885-2008)
Thunderstorms (days 37.1 55.3 n/a n/a Low
per yr) (1971-2000)
Sea level rise (mm) 2.4 - 2.7 260 - 590 260 - Very Low
per yr
# 2090-2099 * 2070-2099
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Scenarios - Temperature
# 2090-2099
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Public Opinion
Hong Kong
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Task 3: Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessment
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Objectives of V&A Task
• To provide an overview of the methodology of the
vulnerability and adaptation assessment
• To provide a synthesized analysis of the vulnerability
assessment and the key vulnerabilities in Hong Kong
• To review overseas policies and measures currently
planned or being considered that might facilitate
adaptation to climate change
• To present additional adaptation policies and measure
options that could be implemented by Hong Kong to
facilitate adequate adaption for each of the key vulnerable
sectors/areas.
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Impacts and Adaption
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Methodology
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Our Approach for Vulnerability Assessment
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Impacts of Climate Change
• Defining Impacts
• Likelihood
• Consequence
• Defining Confidence
• Uncertainty
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Sectors and Vulnerabilities
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Sectors and Vulnerabilities
A. Agriculture: Poultry Production, Pig Husbandry, Dairy
Farming / Cattle Husbandry, Fruit, Flower & Vegetable
Production
B. Aquaculture & Fisheries: Marine Capture Fishery, Marine
Culture Fishery, Inland Pond Aquaculture, Oyster Culture
Fishery
C. Biodiversity & Nature Conservation: Terrestrial / Aquatic
Ecosystems & Biodiversity, Marine Ecosystems & Biodiversity
D. Built Environment & Infrastructure: Transport
Infrastructure, Stormwater Drainage Systems, Sewerage
Systems, Communications Infrastructure, Slope Stability
E. Business & Industry: Trading & Logistics, Manufacturing
(Hong Kong), Manufacturing (PRD), Professional & Producer
Services
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Sectors and Vulnerabilities
F. Energy Supply: Electricity Generation, Transmission &
Distribution, Primary Fuel Imports & Supply
G. Financial Services: Banking, Insurance, Other Financial
Services
H. Food Resources: Food Imports, Food Wholesale & Retail
I. Human Health: Accidents / External Health, Chronic Health
Conditions, General Communicable Diseases, Vector Borne
Disease, Food Borne Disease, Health Infrastructure, External
Infrastructure, Occupational Health & Safety Air Quality &
Respiratory Disease, Water Borne Disease
J. Leisure & Tourism: Tourist Attractions / Services, Hotels
K. Water Resources: Impounding & Service Reservoirs,
External Supply from Dongjiang
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Sector Vulnerability Assessment Example
• Vulnerability assessment conducted based on various sectors
• Climate change impacts and potential for adaptation examined
• Based on IPCC definitions and methodology
Systems Confidence Present Importance Prime Criteria for "Key" Vulnerability Vulnerability
Adverse Potential to Adaptive
Day
Implications Benefit Capacity
Capacity
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
“Key” Vulnerabilities
C. Biodiversity & Nature Conservation
• Climate change can Increase loss of biodiversity and increase
colonisation of invasive species
• Local biodiversity already under substantial pressures from human
activities
D. Built Environment & Infrastructure
• Very high uncertainties in the magnitude and rate of sea level rise
• Developments located on low-lying areas / reclaimed land are highly
sensitive to climate change
E. Business & Industry
• Sector is very broad and a wide range of impacts could be felt across
the sector
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
“Key” Vulnerabilities
F. Energy Supply
• Interruptions in power supply are likely to result in economic and social
costs
• High uncertainties in impacts along the supply chain and effects of
warmer climate
G. Financial Services
• Sector may be vulnerable to impacts on other areas i.e. infrastructure
H. Food Resources
• Extreme weather events could reduce agricultural outputs at sources of
food imported to Hong Kong
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
“Key” Vulnerabilities
I. Human Health
• Climate change expected to disproportionately affect vulnerable groups
• More accidents / emergency situations could result from extreme
weather events
K. Water Resources
• Uncertainties in future rainfall levels could affect water availability
• Water availability may be constrained by physical or contractual
reasons
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Overseas Adaptation Policies and
Measures
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Overseas Examples
• London
• The Draft Climate Change Adaptation Strategy was published 2008
• Includes partnership arrangements, flood consequence analysis
and urban heat island plans
• Singapore
• National climate change strategy includes adaptation options
• Includes water scarcity plans as well as disease, building and
flooding controls
• Tokyo
• Variety of measures addressing urban heat island effect, water
scarcity, flooding and food security
• New York
• Developed strategies for climate change adaptation
• Includes partnerships, addressing vulnerable communities and
identifying assets at risk
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Extant Adaptive Capacity to
Climate Change in Hong Kong
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Existing Policies
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Methodology for Identifying
Climate Change Adaptation
Options
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Principles
1. Sustainability
2. Inclusive
3. Flexible and regularly revised
4. Pro-active
5. Based upon the precautionary principle
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Considerations
1. For Policy Makers:
• Economic Efficiency • Institutional feasibility
• Flexibility • Unique or Critical Resources
• Urgency • Health and Safety
• Low Cost • Consistency
• Equity • Private vs Public Sector
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Types of Adaptive Responses
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation
Options for Hong Kong
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Adaptation Options for Hong Kong
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Sectoral-level Climate Change Adaptation Options
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options:
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options
Built Environment and Infrastructure:
BUE-R1 Indentify Risk infrastructure
BUE-R2 Update flood risk maps
BUE-I1 Develop climate risk screening tool
BUE-I2 Periodically review construction-related codes /
guidelines / design standards against climate change
scenarios
BUE-I3 Regularly update the Hong
Kong Urban Climatic Map
BUE-I4 Develop flood risk strategies
BUE-E1 Promote green roofs
BUE-E2 Promote cool roofs
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options
Energy Supply:
EGY-M1 Monitor for changes in energy demand and supply patterns
EGY-I1 Periodically review likely changes in energy demand and
supply patterns
EGY-I2 Diversify fuel sources and fuel suppliers
EGY-I3 Assess impacts along the
energy supply chain
EGY-E1 Energy supply contingency
planning
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options
Financial Services:
FIN-R1 Examine the potential for expanding the role of insurers in
climate risk management
FIN-R2 Examine legal roles of insurance industry and regulators
FIN-I1 Climate Risk Disclosure (Insurance Industry)
FIN-I2 Encourage insurance industry to share data and information
FIN-P1 Examine the implications on the insurance industry
FIN-P2 Examine the implications on the banking
industry
BUS-P1 Promote business climate impact assessment
BUS-P2 Encourage business continuity planning
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options
Food Resources:
FOD-R1 Examine the effects on local live poultry production and live
pig husbandry
FOD-R2 Examine the impacts on food supply chain
FOD-R3 Research effects on vulnerable groups
FOD-M1 Monitor food prices
FOD-M2 Monitor overseas agricultural impact studies
FOD-I1 Allocate responsibility for security of supply
FOD-I2 Develop food security indicators
FOD-I3 Encourage / increase domestic agricultural
production
FOD-E1 Food supply contingency planning
BUS-P1 Encourage business continuity planning
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options
Human Health:
HEA-R1 Research effects on vulnerable groups
HEA-M1 Observe the effects of extreme temperatures
HEA-I1 Communicate information on extreme temperatures to health
practitioners
HEA-I2 Periodically review emergency relief services - temporary
accommodation
HEA-I3 Periodically review welfare policies
HEA-I4 Review existing surveillance systems
for detecting non-endemic diseases
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options
Water Resources:
WAT-R1 Assess impacts along the water supply chain
WAT-I1 Consider climate change and variability in Dongjiang
water import agreement
WAT-I2 Periodically review Total Water Management (TWM)
Strategy
WAT-E1 Contingency planning for droughts
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Adaption to Climate Change
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Thank you
andrew.jackson@erm.com
alastair.scott@erm.com
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world