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A Study of Climate

Change in Hong Kong:


Vulnerability & Adaptation
Workshop

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Agenda

• Climate Change: Background


• V&A Task: Aims, Objectives, Approach
• Identifying Vulnerabilities
• Adaptation Options

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Background

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
The Greenhouse Effect

Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal, http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/ page/3061.aspx

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Causes of Climate Change

1) Natural Forcings
e.g. Solar variation (sunspots), volcanic activities

2) Anthropogenic (Human-induced) Forcings


e.g. GHG emissions associated with human activities
(fossil fuel use, land-use change, deforestation)

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Global Warming

It is “very likely” with a probability of over


90%, that the rise in the mean global
temperature observed since the mid-20th
century is attributable for the most part to
the anthropogenic increase in the GHGs
concentrations (IPCC AR4).

Source:
Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal,
Hadley http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/
Centre for Climate Prediction and Research page/3061.aspx

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

• Pre industrial
atmospheric CO2
conc ~ 270 ppm

• Latest reading
(Keeling data from
Mauna Loa, Hawaii)
= 385 ppm

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Impacts: Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change in Hong Kong

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Scenarios - Rainfall

Variable Current Impact Lower Upper Confidence


Conditions (2100) bound bound
Average annual 2382.7 2572.0# 1763.1# 3235.3# Low
rainfall (mm) (1971-2000)
Annual rain 104 142.1# 120.7# 152.1# Low
days (1971-2000)
Heavy rain 6.1 6.5 * 2.5 * 8.3 * Low
frequency (1971-2000)

# 2090-2099
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Scenarios – Extreme Rainfall
and Sea Conditions
Variable Current Impact Lower Upper Confidence
Conditions (2100) bound bound
Yrs with extremely low 2 years 3.6 n/a n/a Low
rainfall (1885-2008)
Yrs with extremely high 3 years 9.7 n/a n/a Low
rainfall (1885-2008)
Thunderstorms (days 37.1 55.3 n/a n/a Low
per yr) (1971-2000)
Sea level rise (mm) 2.4 - 2.7 260 - 590 260 - Very Low
per yr

# 2090-2099 * 2070-2099
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Scenarios - Temperature

Variable Current Impact Lower Upper Confidence


Conditions (2100) bound bound
Decadal mean 23.1°C 27.9°C 24.5°C 32.3°C High
annual (1980-99) (+4.8°C) (+1.4°C) (+9.2°C)
temperature
Hot nights 13.1 41.2# 22.0# 68.7# Medium
(annual) (1971-2000)
Very hot days 9.8 15.3# 9.6# 23.5# Low-Medium
(annual) (1971-2000)
Cold days 18.6 <1 <1 <1 Medium
(annual) (1971-2000)

# 2090-2099
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Public Opinion
Hong Kong

Climate change has rapidly


become an important concern
for Hong Kong residents

Source: Neilsen, 2007

“To what extent do you agree with the statement:


‘Hong Kong is quite safe from the impacts of climate change?’”

Source: TNS and WWF, 2007

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Task 3: Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessment

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
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Objectives of V&A Task
• To provide an overview of the methodology of the
vulnerability and adaptation assessment
• To provide a synthesized analysis of the vulnerability
assessment and the key vulnerabilities in Hong Kong
• To review overseas policies and measures currently
planned or being considered that might facilitate
adaptation to climate change
• To present additional adaptation policies and measure
options that could be implemented by Hong Kong to
facilitate adequate adaption for each of the key vulnerable
sectors/areas.

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Impacts and Adaption

• Definition of the Problem:


• To characterise the impacts of climate change in
Hong Kong
• Evaluate existing and recommend additional
strategies and measures to facilitate adequate
adaptation to climate change

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Methodology

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Our Approach for Vulnerability Assessment

• Exposure and Sensitivity • Climate Change Impacts &


Analysis Vulnerability Assessment
• Hong Kong climate change • Identify “key” vulnerabilities
scenarios
• magnitude and timing of
• Identify receptors, ie impacts, confidence,
systems at risk persistence & reversibility,
distribution, adaptive
• Identify Potential capacity, importance of
Consequences systems

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Impacts of Climate Change

• Defining Impacts
• Likelihood
• Consequence

• Defining Confidence
• Uncertainty

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Sectors and Vulnerabilities

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Sectors and Vulnerabilities
A. Agriculture: Poultry Production, Pig Husbandry, Dairy
Farming / Cattle Husbandry, Fruit, Flower & Vegetable
Production
B. Aquaculture & Fisheries: Marine Capture Fishery, Marine
Culture Fishery, Inland Pond Aquaculture, Oyster Culture
Fishery
C. Biodiversity & Nature Conservation: Terrestrial / Aquatic
Ecosystems & Biodiversity, Marine Ecosystems & Biodiversity
D. Built Environment & Infrastructure: Transport
Infrastructure, Stormwater Drainage Systems, Sewerage
Systems, Communications Infrastructure, Slope Stability
E. Business & Industry: Trading & Logistics, Manufacturing
(Hong Kong), Manufacturing (PRD), Professional & Producer
Services
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Sectors and Vulnerabilities
F. Energy Supply: Electricity Generation, Transmission &
Distribution, Primary Fuel Imports & Supply
G. Financial Services: Banking, Insurance, Other Financial
Services
H. Food Resources: Food Imports, Food Wholesale & Retail
I. Human Health: Accidents / External Health, Chronic Health
Conditions, General Communicable Diseases, Vector Borne
Disease, Food Borne Disease, Health Infrastructure, External
Infrastructure, Occupational Health & Safety Air Quality &
Respiratory Disease, Water Borne Disease
J. Leisure & Tourism: Tourist Attractions / Services, Hotels
K. Water Resources: Impounding & Service Reservoirs,
External Supply from Dongjiang
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Sector Vulnerability Assessment Example
• Vulnerability assessment conducted based on various sectors
• Climate change impacts and potential for adaptation examined
• Based on IPCC definitions and methodology

Climate Change Impacts Potential for Adaptation

Systems Confidence Present Importance Prime Criteria for "Key" Vulnerability Vulnerability
Adverse Potential to Adaptive
Day
Implications Benefit Capacity
Capacity

Built Environment & Infrastructure

Building Stock H L L/M M/H L H Distribution, Magnitude, Timing, H


Low Adaptive Capacity,
Importance, Irreversibility,
Confidence

Transport H L L M/H L H Magnitude, Timing, Low H


Infrastructure Adaptive Capacity, Importance,
Irreversibility, Confidence

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
“Key” Vulnerabilities
C. Biodiversity & Nature Conservation
• Climate change can Increase loss of biodiversity and increase
colonisation of invasive species
• Local biodiversity already under substantial pressures from human
activities
D. Built Environment & Infrastructure
• Very high uncertainties in the magnitude and rate of sea level rise
• Developments located on low-lying areas / reclaimed land are highly
sensitive to climate change
E. Business & Industry
• Sector is very broad and a wide range of impacts could be felt across
the sector

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
“Key” Vulnerabilities

F. Energy Supply
• Interruptions in power supply are likely to result in economic and social
costs
• High uncertainties in impacts along the supply chain and effects of
warmer climate
G. Financial Services
• Sector may be vulnerable to impacts on other areas i.e. infrastructure
H. Food Resources
• Extreme weather events could reduce agricultural outputs at sources of
food imported to Hong Kong

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
“Key” Vulnerabilities

I. Human Health
• Climate change expected to disproportionately affect vulnerable groups
• More accidents / emergency situations could result from extreme
weather events
K. Water Resources
• Uncertainties in future rainfall levels could affect water availability
• Water availability may be constrained by physical or contractual
reasons

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Overseas Adaptation Policies and
Measures

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Overseas Examples
• London
• The Draft Climate Change Adaptation Strategy was published 2008
• Includes partnership arrangements, flood consequence analysis
and urban heat island plans
• Singapore
• National climate change strategy includes adaptation options
• Includes water scarcity plans as well as disease, building and
flooding controls
• Tokyo
• Variety of measures addressing urban heat island effect, water
scarcity, flooding and food security
• New York
• Developed strategies for climate change adaptation
• Includes partnerships, addressing vulnerable communities and
identifying assets at risk
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Extant Adaptive Capacity to
Climate Change in Hong Kong

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Existing Policies

• Extreme Temperatures & Heatwaves


• Drought
• Floods
• Storms and Tropical Cyclones
• Landslips and Landslides
• Health and Safety
• Economy
• Environment

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Methodology for Identifying
Climate Change Adaptation
Options

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Principles

Five-fold adaptation Strategy:

1. Sustainability
2. Inclusive
3. Flexible and regularly revised
4. Pro-active
5. Based upon the precautionary principle

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Considerations
1. For Policy Makers:
• Economic Efficiency • Institutional feasibility
• Flexibility • Unique or Critical Resources
• Urgency • Health and Safety
• Low Cost • Consistency
• Equity • Private vs Public Sector

2. Temporal and spatial scale


• No Action Today • Planning
• Anticipatory Action • Research and Education

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Types of Adaptive Responses

• Prevention: actions which can reduce the probability


of an impact occurring
• Preparation: actions taken to better understand the
risk and develop an effective response
• Response: damage limitation actions taken in
response to an event to reduce the consequences
• Recovery: actions taken after an event to enable a
return to normal, or a state of greater resilience than
before the event

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation
Options for Hong Kong

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Adaptation Options for Hong Kong

• Sectoral-level actions in specific areas where Hong


Kong is most vulnerable.
• Cross-sectoral activities such as research activities to
inform government decision making and activities to
raise awareness of Hong Kong’s vulnerabilities to
climatic change as well as possible adaptation actions
to address them.
• Cross-departmental bodies to co-ordinate government
action to ensure consistency across government
decision making.

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Sectoral-level Climate Change Adaptation Options

Major Categories of Options:


• Research & investigation (R)
• Monitoring (M)
• Institutional strengthening & capacity building (I)
• Disaster management & emergency planning (E)
• Education & public awareness (P)

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options:

Biodiversity / Nature Conservation:


BIO-R1 Establish priorities
BIO-R2 Research effects on non-native / invasive
species
BIO-M1 Periodically review and revise monitoring
programmes
BIO-M2 Surveillance for non-native species
BIO-I1 Incorporate climate change into existing
management framework
BIO-I2 Gather existing knowledge

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options
Built Environment and Infrastructure:
BUE-R1 Indentify Risk infrastructure
BUE-R2 Update flood risk maps
BUE-I1 Develop climate risk screening tool
BUE-I2 Periodically review construction-related codes /
guidelines / design standards against climate change
scenarios
BUE-I3 Regularly update the Hong
Kong Urban Climatic Map
BUE-I4 Develop flood risk strategies
BUE-E1 Promote green roofs
BUE-E2 Promote cool roofs
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options

Business and Industry:


BUS-P1 Promote business climate impact assessment
BUS-P2 Encourage business continuity planning
BUS-I1 Consider development of a Hong Kong business assessment
tool
BUS-E1 Support business continuity planning
for essential operations

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options

Energy Supply:
EGY-M1 Monitor for changes in energy demand and supply patterns
EGY-I1 Periodically review likely changes in energy demand and
supply patterns
EGY-I2 Diversify fuel sources and fuel suppliers
EGY-I3 Assess impacts along the
energy supply chain
EGY-E1 Energy supply contingency
planning

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options
Financial Services:
FIN-R1 Examine the potential for expanding the role of insurers in
climate risk management
FIN-R2 Examine legal roles of insurance industry and regulators
FIN-I1 Climate Risk Disclosure (Insurance Industry)
FIN-I2 Encourage insurance industry to share data and information
FIN-P1 Examine the implications on the insurance industry
FIN-P2 Examine the implications on the banking
industry
BUS-P1 Promote business climate impact assessment
BUS-P2 Encourage business continuity planning

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options
Food Resources:
FOD-R1 Examine the effects on local live poultry production and live
pig husbandry
FOD-R2 Examine the impacts on food supply chain
FOD-R3 Research effects on vulnerable groups
FOD-M1 Monitor food prices
FOD-M2 Monitor overseas agricultural impact studies
FOD-I1 Allocate responsibility for security of supply
FOD-I2 Develop food security indicators
FOD-I3 Encourage / increase domestic agricultural
production
FOD-E1 Food supply contingency planning
BUS-P1 Encourage business continuity planning
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options
Human Health:
HEA-R1 Research effects on vulnerable groups
HEA-M1 Observe the effects of extreme temperatures
HEA-I1 Communicate information on extreme temperatures to health
practitioners
HEA-I2 Periodically review emergency relief services - temporary
accommodation
HEA-I3 Periodically review welfare policies
HEA-I4 Review existing surveillance systems
for detecting non-endemic diseases

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options

Human Health (continued):


HEA-I5 List changing disease patterns and impacts on vulnerable
population associated with climate change as research priorities
and provide funding
HEA-E1 Periodically review warning / monitoring systems
HEA-E2 Periodically review emergency
services / contingency plans
HEA-E3 Plan and prepare for reasonable
worst case situations
HEA-P1 Educate medical community on
non-endemic diseases
The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Climate Change Adaptation Options

Water Resources:
WAT-R1 Assess impacts along the water supply chain
WAT-I1 Consider climate change and variability in Dongjiang
water import agreement
WAT-I2 Periodically review Total Water Management (TWM)
Strategy
WAT-E1 Contingency planning for droughts

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Adaption to Climate Change

• Hong Kong possesses significant adaptive


capacity and has many systems in place which
could be used to adapt to the physical impacts of
climate change.
• It is however likely that some of the systems may
need to be refined to address changing
vulnerabilities. Also, the resources allocated to
the implementation of policies and measures to
protect and respond to climate change may need
to be increased.

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world
Thank you

andrew.jackson@erm.com
alastair.scott@erm.com

The findings provided in the presentation are in draft format and provided
for stakeholder discussion purpose only. They are subject to change.
Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world

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