ADVANCE SWING ANALYSIS

Note- While reading this book please open your charting software & check every stock which I have

mentioned in this book.

Introduction – Friends if you are new to stock market or a experience trader I want to tell you with confidence

that after reading this book & with regular practice of this method you will be great enough to pick & trade stock

for short term trading ,I use this method personally for short term trading from last 2 years .

When I was in MBA I have started learning stock market and reading books on stock market, few of them as
below. After reading books I understood that no one run the market, it’s a market makes you run.

Truth of Stock Tape- W.D Gann

Trade like Jesse Livermore-Richard Smitten – Great book for every trader

How to make money trading chart- Ashwani Gujral

And lot of basic information regards to technical analysis you will get from internet

I would like to suggest below basic point you need to learn to start technical analysis

1) Candlestick Pattern

2) Trend Line

3) Trend

4) Price Pattern- reversal & continuation ( Head & shoulder pattern, flag pattern ,double top ,double

Bottom) all pattern you will get from internet & many more

5) Supporting Indicators for price pattern

How to make Entry in Trading

Have you experience that you always book profit early and keep loss making stock in holding? For most of

investors it’s a common thing, because we don’t have rules, we don’t have proper method, we follow what other

say, we don’t believe on own analysis.

Jesse Livermore was a trader who didn’t watch market in market hrs, he used to start study after market closed &

always he used to remove bad stock from portfolio

After reading this book you will get proper trading rules, unique method, and simple analysis

Point to Remember-

1) Believe on method – Until & unless you don’t believe on your own analysis no one will believe.

2) Don’t Listen what other trader do or advise -Such things divert your mind and that create confusion in

mind whether my analysis is right or others

 3) Trade as per rules –follow each & every rule of method

4) Trade only if you know the reason to trade –just someone told buy XYZ stock it will give double profit

in few days ,don’t do this ,if you do this it will create bad habit to listen & trade based on others analysis

Stock Market-

It’s a “ Gambling” , this market is not for me ,only big player can earn profit ,it’s a gambling stay away from this

,such kind of thought comes in our mind & its common ,but if you check history of stock market ,take a name “

Warren Buffet “ Rakesh jhunjhunwala “ started with very small capital and now they are like brand of stock

market .

Yes stock market is Gambling for those who don’t know what stock market is. Once you finish this book you will

be happy to trade without gambling, you will have unique trade set-up for short term trading with proper stop loss

and target.

Mind Control-

I or any other person will teach you technical analysis, but what if you don’t follow method, what if you don’t

follow rules for every trade? Then No use of technical analysis, no use of method & at last you will out of market.

If you want to become a successful trader mind control is very important.

What is mind control?

“ Buy XYZ stock in coming week stock price will be double “ someone send whatup ,sms and without any study

,information you blindly buy this ,don’t do this ,if you do this you don’t have control on your mind as far as stock

market trading is concern .

If you bought any ABC stock and this stock is in big loss still you carry, why? Because commonly we don’t like to

book losses, for the sake of our inner mind we say in coming future price will go up and then I will sell ,such

future come very rarely.

Fix your stop loss and when stop loss hit, book your loss, if you don’t do this

You don’t have control on your mind. Small loss booking is a good sign of smart trader and Investor.”Keep Good

stock In Holding”

Don’t believe on other calls, believe on your own analysis, be your own analyst.

History of Stock Market

In India Stock Market started in 1875, BSE is Asia’s 1st stock exchange; Indian stock market is on 6th Rank in the

world

What is share market-? Stock market is a place where buying and selling of shares takes place, for example

reliance, Infosys, ongc, Dabur etc

In India more than 5000 company listed in stock market

Listed Company- A Listed Company whose shares can be traded on stock exchange, the company take out Initial

public Offering through which it sells its shares to the public and gets capital in return .thereafter the stock

exchange lists the company and allow it shares to be traded.

In this book I have emphasis on practical aspect of stock market, trading, analysis, how to pick stock for

trade, how to fix stop loss and target, so you will see less points of stock market history, functioning.

Trader want practical things of market rather than back office functioning.

In this book you will learn below points in detail.

1) Technical Analysis

2) My Unique Method for Short term trading

3) How to calculate target and stop loss

4) Entry level

5) Exit level

6) Portfolio Management

Above point you can learn by reading book or attending workshop or by other way but mind control you need

to improve by your own.

Keep your rule always in front of you before trade

Follow every rule without any break

Don’t listen others advise

If you have confusion for any trade avoid that trade

Stop loss hit –book your loss

Target hit- book your profit

Every morning say loudly – I trade only when my method gives signal ,I follow all my rules
 Once you execute trade wait for target or stop loss hit –Trader should be very calm while trading.

Follow these rules & method you will see positive improvement in your trading

“Consistency in work is a key to success “

Technical analysis –

Now please open your charting software and check every chart which I have mentioned in this book, which will

help you to understand more clearly

A technical analysis is a study of price movement and understands the trend of price with the help of price

charts.

Three type of price charts

Bar Chart

Line Chart

Candle stick Chart

Most of the investor and analyst use candle stick chart

 Bar Chart -Open-high-low-close

Green candle when price closed above open price & Red candle when price closed below open
Line Chart- Only closing price joint by points

Candle Stick Chart

There are three type of trend into market

1) Up Trend

2) Down Trend

3) Sideways Trend

UP TREND
DOWN TREND
SIDEWAY TREND
Candle stick chart

To create a candlestick chart, you must have a data set that contains open, high, low and close values for each time

period.

Filled portion of the candlestick called “The Body”

The long thin lines above and below the body represent the high/low range and are called shadows

The high is marked by the top of the upper shadow and the low by the bottom of the lower shadow.
 Candle stick pattern

On Daily, weekly, monthly chart every candle has their own characteristic which help to understand and

represent market movement below are important candlestick pattern which indicate near term trend

Bullish Engulfing Pattern:

It’s a bullish engulfing pattern, reversal pattern that can be bearish or bullish, depending upon whether it appears at the

end of an uptrend (bearish engulfing pattern) or a downtrend (bullish engulfing pattern). The first day is characterized

by a small body, followed by a day whose body completely engulfs the previous day's body.

Evening Doji Star:

The uptrend continues with a large white body. The next day opens higher, trades in a small range, then closes at its

open (Doji). The next day closes below the midpoint of the body of the first day. It’s a bearish pattern and most of time

stock shows downtrend

 Hammer:

Hammer candlesticks form when a security moves significantly lower after the open, but rallies to close

well above the intraday low. The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. If this

candlestick forms during a decline, then it is called a Hammer and it’s a sign of change in trend.

Hanging Man:

Hanging Man candlesticks form when a security moves significantly lower after the open, but rallies to

close well above the intraday low. The resulting candlestick looks like a square lollipop with a long stick. If

this candlestick forms during an advance, then it is called a Hanging Man ,if such candle formed during up

trend then it’s a signal of supply will start

Marubozu:
 A candlestick with no shadow extending from the body at either the open, the close or at both. Big bullish

or bearish sign depending upon last candle ,if it’s a black bearish trend and vice-versa

Piercing Line:

A bullish two day reversal pattern. The first day, in a downtrend, is a long black day. The next day opens

at a new low, and then closes above the midpoint of the body of the first day. Its Uptrend sign

Morning Star:

A three day bullish reversal pattern consisting of three candlesticks - a long-bodied black candle

extending the current downtrend, a short middle candle that gapped down on the open, and a long-bodied

white candle that gapped up on the open and closed above the midpoint of the body of the first day. It’s a

uptrend sign

Three Black Crows:

A bearish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive long black bodies where each day closes at or near its

low and opens within the body of the previous day, its bearish sign

Three White Soldiers:

A bullish reversal pattern consisting of three consecutive long white bodies, each should open within the previous
body and the close should be near the high of the day. Its uptrend sign

SWING METHOD-

Dow Theory- Learn this theory because it’s a base of any analysis, simple to understand and based on this

theory only I have developed my advance swing method

Higher Top and Higher Bottom –Up Trend

Lower Top and Lower Bottom –Down Trend

Major Trend have Three Phase-

Accumulation, Public participation and Distribution

The Price Discount everything

Volume Must Confirm the Trend

Bull Trends

A bull trend is identified by a series of rallies where each rally exceeds the highest point of the previous

rally. The decline, between rallies, ends above the lowest point of the previous decline.

Successive higher highs and higher lows.

The start of an uptrend is signaled when price makes a higher low (trough), followed by a rally above the

previous high (peak):

Start = higher Low + break above previous High.
 Bear Trends

Each successive rally fails to penetrate the high point of the previous rally. Each decline terminates at a

lower point than the preceding decline.

Successive lower highs and lower lows.

A bear trend starts at the end of a bull trend: when a rally ends with a lower peak and then retreats below the previous

low. The end of a bear trend is identical to the start of a bull trend.
ADVANCE SWING METHOD-

1) Proper Trade set-up- Swing Buy/ sell trade set up -

Under this point we will cover “what is checklist, How to pick any stock for swing buy&sell. How to

calculate target based on Fibonacci method, how to calculate stop loss “

Before this I would like you to go through higher top –higher bottom & Lower top lower bottom pattern

(Dow Theory) so it will be easier for us to identify swing trades. These two patterns only tell you the trend

of market.

From above chart it’s very clear that chart is making higher bottom and higher top, so it’s an uptrend, trade
above 1st Higher Top more demand came and stock moved up, again trade above 2nd Higher Top more

demand came and stock moved higher

When any stock /index forming higher top higher bottom formation then it’s an uptrend

LTLB Pattern – In Below chart every time chart making lower top and lower bottom its down trend, trade

below first Lower Bottom more supply we have seen, again trade below 2nd Lower Bottom stock went down

more

So market /stock most of time move in either way, HTHB or LTLB (Higher top & higher bottom

/Lower top & lower bottom)

Now we want such stock /index that is creating higher bottom for swing buy and stock which

is creating Lower top for swing sell

How to identify practically any stock for swing Buy?

Now open you charting software and check every stock which I have mentioned in this book with all said

indicators.

To pick any stock for swing buy we need to check such stock that is making higher top higher bottom pattern

and stock is near to higher bottom to pick for swing buy

Follow Below check list.

Analysis based on Swing Buy

Rules to pick swing –buy

Keep daily candle chart open on your system

Plot 3,15 ema on daily chart ( expontial moving avg.) 3 ema above 15 ema is a buy signal

Plot MACD 9,13,26 on daily chart (Blue line above yellow line is a buy signal)

Plot daily parabolic sar on daily chart (parabolic sar below candle is a buy signal)

Plot EMV ( ease of movement) on daily chart – this indicator suggest strength in trend

If EMV above 0 line then strength in buy and if below 0 then strength in sell.

Plot DMI – Directional movement index – ADX+ above ADX-line –buy

ADX- is above ADX+ –sell

 Let’s study live examples

Asian Paint Daily Candle chart-

3,15 ema on chart ,parabolic sar blue line on chart , DMI- below chart, EMV below DMI and MACD below

EMV

Rules to follow “Trader “Please open your charting software while checking every chart now

Analysis date 10.07.2015 (circle on chart)

Stock is making higher top higher bottom –

MACD 9,13,26, is positive –Blue line above yellow line shown just below chart

EMV is above 0 – Strength in buy side –shown below DMI Indicator

DMI – Green line is above yellow line – Buy

Last candle on Intraday basis came down near to 15 ema and closed above
 Daily parabolic sar is below stock price –buy signal – On chart blue line

Stock is trading above 3,15 ema

Stock on intraday basis touch 15 ema on 10th July 2015 and bounce back

All the indicators of our checklist suggest that this stock good for swing buy, keep in mind friends that we

are buying near to higher bottom. Look at chart creating higher top and higher bottom

Support of 15 ema where our all indicator support for buy trade

Friend above indicators is our checklist, daily we need to track stocks on closing basis with above

checklist

So we have picked Asian paint for swing buy.

When to buy?

On 10th July 2015 at evening we have picked this stock to buy, now when to buy, at what level we have to

buy?

On next trading day on 60 min chart we will buy this stock if our all indicator gives buy signal
 th
60 min chart - On 13 July on 60 min chart all indicator has turn to buy side red line shown on chart ,red

vertical line at this candle EMV,DMI,MACD,parabolic sar ,3,15 ema all are on buy side ,so we will buy

above this candle high

Asian paint Daily-circle candle was analysis day 10th July 2015

So for swing buy we check such stock that taking support near to 15 ema and at that level our every indicator on buy

side only, for this stock on 10th July 2015 stock closed in red but stock was making higher top higher bottom, and all

our indicator was on buy side only, so we have picked this stock for swing buy considering stock is taking support at

15 ema. On next day we buy if on 60 min chart our all indicator turn to buy side.

Stop Loss and Target

What should be stop loss?-

Stop loss is previous day low price, ( Previous day mean the day before entry day) in this case 10th July
low price is a stop loss as we have made entry on 13th July

What should be the target?

To calculate target we require two prices.

Recent high price and recent low price

In this case recent high was on 8th July 835 and low was on 10th July 781

Do calculation= (High- Low)*1.618 + Low

835-781 =54*1.618 =87 + 781=868, so initial target was 868

For 2nd target high –low difference * 2.618 and add that result into low price

835-781=54*2.618=141+781=922

Note- On 5th Aug.2015 stock made high 926

Dear friend are you clear with Swing buy trade based on daily chart?

We will do revision

Every evening after market closed we check daily candle chart

We look such stock who is forming higher bottom

Stock which is taking support near 15 ema

Last candle should touch 15 ema on intraday basis and closed higher

MACD 9,13,26 positive

Daily parabolic sar should on buy side

EMV should be above 0 line

DMI – Green line should above yellow line

Stock is above 3,15 ema

 If any stock fulfilled our above check list, we consider this stock for swing buy.

On next day we buy this stock if on 60 min chart all indicator turn into buy side

Stop loss is previous day low and 1st , 2nd target we all know how to calculate

Nifty -29.06.15 analysis day -

Check below daily chart last candle circled candle on intraday basis touch 15 ema and closed positive

at that day all our indicator on buy side ,check chart and every indicator carefully ,stock trading above

3,15 ema ,parabolic sar on buy side,MACD,EMV and DMI all indicator on buy side

It’s a good stock for swing buy!! When to buy?

For this example our analysis day candle closed in green taking 15 ema as support so we will buy on next

day if any 15 min candle closed above analysis day high ,high was 8329 ,so we will buy if on next day any

15 min candle closed above 8329 and if stock/index tick above this 15 min high .

Check what happened next. Circled candle was an analysis day from there nifty moved and achieved targets,

to calculate target our recent high was 24th June 8423 and recent low 8195 29th June, calculate target , stop

loss is 29th June low price that is 8195

Calculate targets; consider this as your home work!

1st target is 8563, 2nd Target is 8791.

Stock Name- BOSCHLTD

Analysis Date-24th May 2016 (circled candle)

Look at the chart making higher top higher bottom and on 24th may 2016 stock on intraday basis touch 15 ema

and daily candle closed in green , check vertical red line at this day our every indicator support buy side only

Stock has taken support at 15 ema and at this time all indicator on buy side ,good stock for swing buy ,recent high is

17th May 21850 and recent low is 20524 24th May 2016

When to buy? - Remember if its green candle then we will buy on next day any 15 min candle closed above 24th May

high, high was 21350

Below is 15 min chart till 24th May 2016, red horizontal line is a high level of 24th may

We will buy if on next day any 15 min candle closed above this red line and stock trade above that 15 min high level
Look at below 15 min chart, circled candle closed above 24th May high level and stock traded above that 15 min high

level as well. So we have bought stock at 21592 levels, please open your charting software to check it will help you

to understand
What is stop loss? Low price of 24th May 20524

Calculate target –we need recent high and recent low price

High 21850 17th may and low 20524 24th May

21850-20524=1326

1326*1.618=2145

20524+2145=22669
Want to know what happened to this stock

Target achieved! Red horizontal line is a stop loss line, stop loss has not hit by stock and target achieved, (when you

execute trade then only wait for stop loss or target)

Circled candle is a analysis day 24th may 2016

Check extreme last candle (Arrow marked), don’t you see if it’s a good swing buy ? At this level stock taking support

at 15 ema, all indicator on buy side date 7th July 2016

Point to remember

Asian paint chart- for this stock candle took support and closed in red so on next day we bought on 60 min chart when

all indicator turn into buy side

Nifty- for this index analysis day candle took support at 15 ema and closed on green so on next day we bought on 15

min chart only when 15 min candle closed above analysis day high and index tick traded above that 15 min candle high

level

BOSCHLTD- this stock took support at 15 ema and closed in green so on next day we bought based on 15 min chart

only when 15 min candle closed above analysis day high and tick traded above that 15 min high level.

If red candle took support at 15 ema on daily chart next day watch 60 min chart for buy

If Green candle then buy based on 15 min chart

Please go through this method one more time and keep your charting software open
For Home work

Please check daily chart ONGC date -11th July 2016, OIL date 12th July 2016 daily chart

RCOM-12th July 2016, on these dates or one day before stock has made higher bottoms

STOCK NAME- ONGC –Analysis date 8th July 2016

Look at circle candle it’s a red candle came near to 15 day ema, at that day our every indicator was on buy side.

Stock making higher top higher bottom & we are trying to buy at higher bottom
When to buy?

If on next day if our all indicator turn to buy side on 60 min chart then we will buy.

On 12th July at 11:00 am 60 min chart our all indicator turn to buy side, high of that 60 min candle was 228.80, so if

stock tick trade above 228.80 then we will buy and yes stock made high 229.45 on that day!

Want to see what happened for this stock?

Calculate target –recent high 236 5th July and recent low 222 8th July 2016

Stop loss was analysis day low 222.

WEEKLY SWING CHART – I Like weekly chart to create short term trades ,based on my experience it’s a

best chart to look that is weekly

STOCK NAME- VEDL

ANALYSIS DAY 20TH MAY 2016

Look at weekly chart of VEDL- circled candle, this week stock touch 15 ema and took support and at this level check

our all indicators, all on buy side only so this stock based on weekly chart good for swing buy.

When to buy?

If our all indicator ,3,15, ema, parabolic sar, DMI, EMV & MACD turn to buy side on 60 min chart ,we will buy if

stock tick trade above that 60 min high level.

Let’s check 60 min chart for VEDL stock

Below circled 60 min candle(25th May 2016) ,at this candle our all indicator turn to buy side ,so we will buy if stock

tick trade above this 60 min high level- high was 99.70
How to calculate target?

We need recent weekly high and low levels

May 6 high 113.95 and low May 24 low was 94

Calculate 1st target

113.95-94=19.95

19.95*1.618=32, add this result to low level that was 94

94+32=126

Want to check what happened to this stock –circled candle was an analysis week

Bought at 100, target 126, stop loss was 94, stock achieved target in coming 2-3 weeks.
Check HDFC weekly chart from 2nd week of June 2016 till 18th July 2016 and let me know where you found buy

signal, what is your target, stop loss. Tatamtrdvr weekly chart from 1st week of July till 18th July 2016 and let

me know where you found signal, target and stop. Today I am writing date is 18th July 2016 and friend I am

carrying Tatamtrdvr stock based on weekly swing buy

Mail me at kawadevaibhav@gmail.com

Are you clear with swing buying method? Please read 2-3 time and I have confidence you will grab entire method.

Take a break! After break we will start Swing sell method (very simple just opposite to swing buy)
SWING SELL. Check below chart we want such stock who’s making lower top lower bottom and we will do swing

sell near to lower top (Black Line on chart)

Rules to pick swing –Sell

Keep daily candle chart open on your system

Plot 3,15 ema on daily chart ( expontial moving avg.) 3 ema below 15 ema is a sell signal

Plot MACD 9,13,26 on daily chart (Blue line below yellow line is a sell signal)

Plot daily parabolic sar on daily chart (parabolic sar above candle is a sell signal)

Plot EMV ( ease of movement) on daily chart – this indicator suggest strength in trend
 If EMV above 0 line then buy strength and if below 0 then sell strength.

Plot DMI – Directional movement index –Minus ADX is above positive ADX is a sell signal

Stock Name HINDZINC

Analysis date 4th Aug.2015

Sell –Checklist

Stock making lower top lower bottom

Parabolic Sar blue line above candle ( Blue line on chart)

3,15 ema negative cross -3 ema below 15 ema ( 3 ema red line and 15 ema green line)

MACD 9,13,26 blue line below yellow line

EMV below 0 line ( Below DMI)

DMI –yellow line above green line (Below EMV)

 Last candle is a red candle –bearish candle

Last candle touch 15 day ema on intraday basis and closed negative

All the above indicators /checklist suggest that above stock is good for swing-sell

Stock has created lower top

We have picked this stock to swing sell.

When to sell? What price to sell?

On next trading day sell this stock if on 15 min candle closed below previous day low and stock tick trade

below that 15 min candle low level.

We have selected stock to sell, we have done short sell.

What should be the stop loss?

Stop loss is previous day high price( analysis day high price)

What is the target? How to calculate it?

To calculate downside target we require two price recent high and recent low.

In this example –on 3rd Aug high was 162 and on 29th July 2015 low was 153.

Calculate 1st target. (High-Low)*1.618-High)

162-153=9*1.618=14-162=147

162-153=9*2.618=23-162=138
On 12th Aug.2015 stock made low 145- Vertical Red line is a analysis day 4th Aug.15
STOCK NAME- INFY

ANALYSIS DATE 4TH JULY 2016

So as per daily chart we have picked INFY stock for sell, now when we will short sell this stock?

Yes when on 60 min chart if our all indicator turn to sell side, we will short sell when Infy trade below that

60 min low price. On 5th July at 1:00Pm 60 min Candle our all indicator turn to sell side ,check vertical line

,so we will see if Infy trade below that candle low price .

Price was 1174

Now calculate downside target – for this we require recent high and recent low price

High 1194 4th July 2016 and recent low 1155 28th June 2016

1194-1155=39

39*1.618=63

1194-63=1130

So our downside 1st target is 1130

Look where the stock is trading now

Stop loss is 1194 –if stop loss get hit square off your position. “Remove bad stock from portfolio “
Weekly chart –UNIONBANK

Analysis week-27th Nov 2015

Look at below chart circle candle stock on weekly chart making lower top lower bottom and at circle candle

touch 15 ema and all our indicator on sell side only ,so as per our rule we want stock which is making lower

top good for sell ,now we want when to sell

We will sell this stock if on 60 min chart our all indicator turn to sell side, now check 60 min chart. On 3rd

Dec 2015 3:30 PM candle our all indicator turn to sell side ,low of that candle was 168 so we will sell this

stock if stock tick trade below 168 ,and look at what happened in chart

We have picked stock for sell then done short sell below 168, now calculate target and stop loss

As per our rule analysis week high will be stop loss but in this case stock next week initially went high

to 174 and then got sell at 168 so stop loss will be 174

Target?
We need to recent High and recent Low

27th Nov.2015 high 168 and recent low was 153 Nov 6

168-153=15

15*1.618=24

168-24=143

So 1st target is 143

15*2.618=39

168-39=129 2nd target

Want to see what happened to this stock?

 PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

Based on my experience best way to create portfolio is as below

Make 10 part of your portfolio

For example you have Rs.100000 make 10 parts of 10000 each that allow you to invest in different stock with

risk diversification.

As per method invest 10000 in each stock which you have picked for buy/sell
 Strictly follow stop loss and target, hold good stock and square off bad stock from portfolio every time

Follow method without any excuse

Do not invest entire amount in one stock

Book 50% profit at 1st target (1.618 and keep rest of position for 2nd Target that is 2.618)

Follow these rules and you will see positive result in your portfolio

ABOUT AUTHOR- Vaibhav Kawade B.com (Pune University) & MBA in Finance

Master in swing trading, expert in short term trading, developed own strategy and methods for trading in Indian

stock market, Simple & unique way to see charts.

6 years of experience in custodian banking & from year 2014 full time trader, strategy writer, and technical

analysis for Indian market also author of six books, recently developed one unique Banknifty Intraday Method,

tested for 498 days, success ratio is 67.5%, continue trade as per method for one year will give you plenty of

returns, for more information check below link

Method is available on – http://www.strategystore.in/strategy.jsp#/12/about

For book query and feedback please mail at kawadevaibhav@gmail.com

Thanks for showing interest in my method!

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