ANIL-FINAL Climate Change - Emerging Challenges For Sustainable Development

National Seminar On
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY IN INDIA: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

Date: 02-03 March 2019
Climate Change: Emerging Challenges for Agriculture, Food Security and

Sustainable Development
Dr. Anil Barik Dr. Pranaba Nanda Das*
Engg. Shops, Rourkela Steel Plant, SAIL Dean, BRMIMS,Bhubaneswar

Email : anil.sailrsp@gmail.com Email* : pranab_hr@rediffmail.com
ABSTRACT
Climate change has added to the enormity of India's food-security challenges. While the relationship
between climate change and food security is complex, most studies focus on one dimension of food
security, i.e., food availability. This paper provides an overview of the emerging challenges to
sustainability and impact of climate change on India's food security, keeping in mind three dimensions —
availability, access, and absorption. It finds that ensuring food security in the face of climate change will
be a formidable challenge and recommends, among others, the adoption of sustainable agricultural
practices, greater emphasis on urban food security and public health, provision of livelihood security, and
long-term relief measures in the event of natural disasters.
Keywords:
Agriculture productivity; Climate change; Adaptation; Costs; Mitigation; Vulnerability.
Introduction
Climate change has a serious impact on the availability of various resources on the earth
especially water, which sustains life on this planet. Changes in the biosphere, biodiversity and
natural resources are adversely affecting human health and quality of life. Throughout the
21stcentury, India is projected to experience warming above global level. India will also begin to
experience more seasonal variation in temperature with more warming in the winters than
summers. Longevity of heat waves across India has extended in recent years with warmer night
temperatures and hotter days, and this trend is expected to continue. The average temperature
change is predicted to be 2.33°C-4.78°C with a doubling in CO2 concentrations. These heat
waves will lead to increased variability in summer monsoon precipitation, which will result in
drastic effects on the agriculture sector in India. Climate models predict a gradual rise in carbon
dioxide (CO2) concentration and temperature across the globe.
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Agriculture represents a core part of the Indian economy and provides food and livelihood
activities to much of the Indian population. While the magnitude of impact varies greatly by
region, climate change is expected to impact on agricultural productivity and shifting crop
patterns. The policy implications are wide-reaching, as changes in agriculture could affect
food security, trade policy, livelihood activities and water conservation issues, impacting large
portions of the population.
The bounty of Indian agriculture romanticized in that famous Manoj Kumar song—which also
underlies the Prime Minister’s goal of doubling farmers’ incomes—increasingly runs up against
the contemporary realities of Indian agriculture, and the harsher prospects of its vulnerability to
long-term climate change.
Sustainable development is “a process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the

direction of investments, the orientation of technological development, and institutional change”
are all compatible and enhance both current and future potential to meet human needs and
aspirations. The notion of sustainability refl ects concerns relating to the impact of development
on the present generation, but it also requires ensuring that future communities
have access to resources that will allow them to survive and prosper.
Agriculture plays a vital role in India’s economy. 54.6% of the population is engaged in
agriculture and allied activities (census 2011) and it contributes 17.4% to the country’s Gross
Value Added for the year 2016-17 (at current prices). Given the importance of agriculture sector,
Government of India took several steps for its sustainable development. Steps have been taken to
improve soil fertility on a sustainable basis through the soil health card scheme, to provide
improved access to irrigation and enhanced water efficiency through Pradhan Mantri Krishi
Sinchai Yojana (PMKSY), to support organic farming through Paramparagat Krishi Vikas
Yojana (PKVY) and to support for creation of a unified national agriculture market to boost the
income of farmers. Further, to mitigate risk in agriculture sector a new scheme “Pradhan Mantri
Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) has been launched for implementation from Kharif 2016.(Anual
report 2017-18,MoAFW,GOI,www.agricoop.nic.in)
Impact of climate change on vulnerable countries
The impacts of climate change are being felt all over the world. It is becoming warmer, rainfall
is more erratic, the sea level is slowly rising and extreme weather events are becoming more
frequent and intense. Prolonged periods of drought, floods and shifting climatic zones are
endangering development successes. The poor and marginalised are often most affected by
climate variability and change.
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India is a large emerging economy with a great variety of geographical regions, biodiversity and
natural resources. However, the country is one of the most vulnerable to climate change risks
worldwide. More than half of India’s population of over 1 billion people lives in rural areas and
depends on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, fisheries and forestry for their livelihoods.
Natural resources and the environment are already under pressure as a result of rapid
urbanisation, industrialisation and economic development. Climate change is projected to
exacerbate these pressures.
In terms of development prospects, climate change may pose the greatest threat to the world’s
small island developing States and many of the least developed countries. As a group, these
countries have contributed the least to overall greenhouse gas emissions but are the most
vulnerable to, and have the least capacity to deal with, the impact of climate change. They tend
to be more susceptible than other countries to the adverse effects of atmospheric and oceanic
warming, changes in precipitation, and extreme events; vulnerabilities within this context relate
mainly to freshwater supplies, agriculture and food security, health, ecosystems, and coastal
zones.
Over the long term, if warming trends contribute to a steady rise in sea level, some small island
developing States may face complete collapse. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, “sea-level rise will exacerbate inundation, erosion and other coastal hazards,
threaten vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities, and thus compromise the socio-economic
well-being of island communities and States.” By the end of the twenty-fi rst century, sea level is
expected to rise by between 0.19 and 0.58 metres, though a number of climate models indicate
that there will be geographic variations. (Mimura et.al.,2007)
The climatic changes described above will have serious implications for a number of sectors and
resources, including agriculture, water availability and quality, and ecosystems like coastal
zones. They will also have an influence on the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters.
Very minor changes to temperature can have major impacts on systems on which human
livelihoods depend, including changes to water availability and crop productivity, the loss of
land due to sea level rise and the spread of disease. The lives and livelihoods of many different
communities will be at risk. Rural areas are highly vulnerable to climate change, since people
there depend heavily on natural resources such as local water supplies and agricultural land. In
fact, about 70 % of the population in developing countries live in rural areas,where agriculture is
their main source of livelihood (IPCC 2007b).
The agricultural sector is already threatened by existing stresses such as the limited availability
of water resources, land degradation, biodiversity loss and air pollution; climate change will thus
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make already sensitive systems even more vulnerable. Whereas climate change could improve
yields of some crops in mid- to high-latitudes, in areas such as the tropics even minimal warming
will lead to crop yield losses. A temperature increase of between 2 and 4 °C may, for example,
cause agricultural losses in the Philippines, yet rice yields in Indonesia and Malaysia are
projected to increase (IPCC2007b).
In India, 700 million Indians living in rural areas directly depend on climate-sensitive sectors
like agriculture, forests and fisheries and natural resources such as water, biodiversity,
mangroves, coastal zones, and grasslands. Furthermore, the adaptive capacity of dry land
farmers, forest dwellers, fisher folk and nomadic shepherds is very low. Climate change is likely
to impact all natural ecosystems as well as socio-economic systems in India.
In addition, poverty is a critical factor that limits the adaptive capacity of rural people in India
(GoI 2012).The Indian Government's National Communications (NATCOM) report of 2012
identifies the following as the impacts of climate change most likely to affect India between now
and 2100:
• Decreased snow cover will affect snow-fed and glacial systems such as the Ganges and
Brahmaputra. 70 % of the summer flow of the Ganges comes from melt water.
• Erratic monsoons will affect India’s rainfed agriculture, peninsular rivers, water and power
supply,• Wheat production will drop by 4-5 million tonnes, even with a rise in temperature of
only 1 ºC.
• Rising sea levels will cause displacement along one of the most densely populated coastlines in
the world, also threatening freshwater sources and mangrove ecosystems.
• Floods will increase in frequency and intensity. This will heighten the vulnerability of people
in the country's coastal, arid and semi-arid zones.
• Over 50 % of India’s forests are likely to experience shift in forest types, adversely impacting
associated biodiversity, regional climate dynamics and livelihoods based on forest products.
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Projected Impact of Climate Change
Fig. 1
Adaptation to climate change
Adaptation is needed to prepare communities, regions, countries and societies for the
consequences of climate change. Practically, adaptation to climate change means doing things
differently because of climate change(UNDP 2004).
Most often, it does not mean doing completely new things, but rather purposefully modifying
development interventions. Adaptation itself is not a development objective, but necessary for
safeguarding beneficial outcomes. Adaptation measures may be compared with a baseline
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of ‘doing nothing’, resulting in bearing losses and not making use of opportunities. Bearing
losses occurs particularly when those affected have no capacity to respond in any other way (for
example in extremely poor communities) or where the costs of adaptation measures are
considered to be high relative to the risk or expected damage.
Vulnerability to climatic changes
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse
effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes .
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and the degree
to which a system is exposed, along with its sensitivity and adaptive capacity. It increases as the
magnitude of climate change or sensitivity increases, and decreases as adaptive capacity
increases (OECD 2009).
How vulnerable a country or society is to the effects of climate change depends not only on the
magnitude of climate stimuli or their effects but also on the sensitivity and capacity of the
affected system to cope with or adapt to such stress. Sensitivity to climatic stress is generally
high when societies depend on natural resources or ecosystems, e.g. agriculture and coastal
zones. Adaptive capacity – the ability to adapt and cope with climatic stress – relies on various
factors, such as wealth, technology, education, and access to resources.
The vulnerability framework in the chart below describes vulnerability as a function of exposure
to the impacts of climate change, sensitivity of the system and adaptive capacity. It takes into
account that socio-economic systems can reduce or intensify the impacts of climate change.
Sensitivity Sensitivity
Potential Adaptive
Impact Capacity
Vulnerability (Source: adapted from Allen Consulting Group)

Fig. 2
Vulnerability of a given system or community depends on:
• the type and magnitude of climate change to which it is exposed (exposure);
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• how sensitive or affected it is to this change (sensitivity);

• the extent to which the system is capable of adjusting or adapting to this change (adaptive
capacity).
Vulnerability to food insecurity: exposure, sensitivity and (adaptive) capacity
(Source: CCAFS 2011) Fig.3
Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change, due to their often higher
exposure to weather and climatic extremes and climate variability. Furthermore, their economies
are often highly dependent on climate-sensitive resources, whereas their adaptive capacity is
relatively low. It is predominantly the poor who will be affected disproportionately. Climate
change affects key development sectors such as agriculture, water and human health.
Consequently, it also affects the objectives of development measures, projects, policies and
development planning on various levels. Given that development choices today influence the
adaptive capacity of people and their governments well into the future, there is ample
opportunity, but also an urgent need, to integrate climate change considerations into
development activities and decision-making. (GIZ- GmbH, India, 2011).
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Odisha : A State on move
Increased Agriculture Production :Crop sector was buoyant in 2016-17.. The principal crop rice
in terms of production (98 lakh MT), cropped area (39.63 lakh ha.) and yield rate (24.72qtl/ha)
led to unprecedented growth rate of 27%. Impressive State government intervention on certified
quality seed provision, improved agriculture implements, farmers extension etc showed the way
to visible upswing in the crop sector (Govt. of Odisha, Economic_Survey_2017)
Agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA)
As per the Provisional Estimates released by Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of
Statistics & Programme Implementation on 31.05.2017, agriculture and allied sectors
contributed approximately 17.4 percent of India’s GVA at current prices during 2016-17. GVA
of agriculture and allied sectors and its share in total GVA of the country at current prices series
during the last 4 years is as follows:
Year Total GVA Agriculture &

allied sector GVA
2013- 14 6.1 5.6
2014- 15 7.2 -0.2
2015- 16 7.9 0.7
2016- 17 6.6 4.9
(Source : Central Statistics Office,Govt. Of India, 2017)
Table .1
Agriculture and Allied sectors witnessed a growth of 5.6 per cent in 2013-14, (-) 0.2 per cent in
2014-15, 0.7 per cent in 2015-16 and 4.9 in 2016-17 at 2011-12 basic prices. The vicissitudes of
growth in the agricultural and allied sector have implications for overall growth of GVA and in
2016-17 the percentage contribution to total GVA growth was much larger than 2015-16.
Changing Climate Pattern and its Impact on Indian Agriculture:

During past 40 years, the region experienced significant increase in average minimum
temperature for all months in kharif season in the range of 1.4-2.1°C. The average maximum
temperature has increased only for the month of August (0.5°C), while it decreased for the
months of June (1.4°) and September (0.6°C).In totality, rise in average monthly temperature
during kharif season has enhanced the level of warming.The average rainfall of the region
showed an increasing trend with significant results for September (46.7mm) and October (15.2
mm). The average relative humidity during the study period has been consistently and
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significantly increased in the range of 1.5-10 per cent during all these months. Climate change
has the ability to influence the crops productivity either positively or negatively. Increase in the
maximum temperature has negative impact on paddy productivity, while increase in the
minimum temperature, rainfall and relative humidity has positive impact though non-significant.
(Grover & Upadhya, 2014).
Future projections of climate reveal that for India as a whole, there will be an increase in average
surface temperature by 2 - 4ο C, changes in the distribution of rainfall (inter-temporal and
spatial) during both monsoon and non monsoon months, decrease in the number of rainy days by
more than 15 days, an increase in the intensity of rainfall by 1 to 4 mm/day along with higher
frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms (Ranuzzi and Srivastava 2012-).
Rice cultivation is the principal activity and source of income in developing countries like India.
Climate changes may directly affect rice plant growth through changes in air temperature,
precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water temperature. Shifts in the hydrological regimes of
catchments within which paddy cultivation occurs might also be expected, including changes in
flood patterns and water availability for paddy irrigation, and drainage conditions. Increased
atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the future, one of the major drivers of global warming, may
also enhance plant growth through the fertilization effect since CO2 is an essential component of
photosynthesis (Watanabe and Kume, 2009)
In addition to weather inputs, rice production is input intensive and requires organic and
inorganic fertilizers for growth. Upland rice cultivation requires sufficient organic manure which
increases water holding capacity of the soil. However, the amount of fertilizer used depends on
soil fertility and existing climatic conditions (GoI, 2014).
Pattanayak and Kumar (2014) find significant adverse impact of both daytime and night time
temperature on rice yields in India from 1969-2007. Further, higher daytime temperature affects
the crop more than night time temperature. They also find that crop yield would have been much
higher if pre 1960 climatic conditions would have prevailed. Millets and sorghum are a group of
grasses, which produce small, seeded cereal crops, grown in arid and semi arid regions of India.
Despite a significant reduction in area sown under millets since the Green Revolution , an
increase in yields has been observed since the mid 1970s. Sorghum and pearl millet, are mostly
grown in states with relatively higher temperature and lower rainfall (Kurosaki and Wada,215).
Kumar & Sharma(2014), concluded that climatic factors i.e. actual rainfall, average maximum
and average minimum temperature have a statistically significant impact on sugarcane
productivity. The climatic effect for various factors on cane productivity are varies within
different seasons. Average maximum temperature in summer and average minimum temperature
in rainy season have a negative and statistically significant effect on sugarcane productivity.
While, sugarcane productivity positively get affect with increasing average maximum
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temperature in rainy season and winter seasons. The study concluded that there is non-linear
relationship between climatic factors and sugarcane productivity in India.
Climate change reduced the irrigated wheat production by 6%, adaptive strategies can not only
offset the production losses but can increase the yield.(Danhassan et.al.,2018).
Potato is cultivated in India in about 21.3 million hectares with a total production of 24.7 million
tons. The areas where potato crop is prominently cultivated are: Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal,
Bihar and Punjab. In India Uttar Pradesh is the area where potatoes are grown in a big way.
Almost over 41% of the total production of potato is from Uttar Pradesh. Global climate change
may raise production of potato in Punjab, Haryana and western and central UP by 3.46 to 7.11%
in A1b 2030 scenario, but in rest of India particularly West Bengal and plateau region potato
production may decline by 4 to 16% (Source: ICRA,2015)
Vulnerability of Indian agriculture to Climate Change (2021-2050)
Indian agriculture, and thereby India's food production, is highly vulnerable to climate
change largely because the sector continues to be highly sensitive to monsoon variability.
After all, about 65 percent of India's cropped area is rain-fed. Figure 2 shows that most
districts with very high and high vulnerability to climate change are in Rajasthan, Gujarat,
Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh.Wheat and rice, two crops
central to nutrition in India, have been found to be particularly sensitive to climate change.
Lobell et al (2012). found that wheat growth in northern India is highly sensitive to
temperatures greater than 34°C. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
report of 2007 echoed similar concerns on wheat yield: a 0.5°C rise in winter temperature is
likely to reduce wheat yield by 0.45 tonnes per hectare in India. Acute water shortage
conditions, together with thermal stress, will affect rice productivity even more severely.( Lal
M et al., 2001
Source: CA Rama Rao et al (2013) , Fig. 4
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Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture :
Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the anticipated climate change. Despite the
technological advances in the second half of 20th century, including the Green Revolution,
weather and climate are still key factors in determining agricultural productivity in most areas of
the world. The predicted changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns, as well as their associated
impacts on water availability, pests, disease, and extreme weather events are all likely to effect
substantially the potential of agricultural production. Literature on economics of climate change
suggests that although global crop production may be boosted slightly by global warming in the
short term (before 2030), it will ultimately turn negative over the longer term (Bruinsma
2003;IPCC 2007b ) . Moreover, the impact of climate change on agricultural production is
unlikely to be evenly distributed across regions. Low latitude and developing countries are
expected to suffer more from the agricultural effects of global warming, reflecting their
disadvantaged geographic location, greater agricultural share in their economies, and limited
ability to adapt to climate change. In contrast, crop production in high latitude regions will
generally benefit from climate change. In a recent global comprehensive estimate for over 100
countries, Cline (2007), predicted that global agricultural productivity would fall by 15.9% in the
2080s if global warming continues unabated, with developing countries experiencing a
disproportionately larger decline of 19.7%.
Climate can affect agriculture in a variety of ways. Temperature, radiation, rainfall, soil moisture
and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration are all important variables to determine agricultural
productivity, and their relationships are not simply linear. Current research confirms that there
are thresholds for these climate variables above which crop yields decline (Challinor et.al. 2005;
Proter and Semenov 2005). For example, the modeling studies discussed in recent IPCC reports
indicate that moderate to medium increases in mean temperature (1–3ºC), along with associated
CO2 increases and rainfall changes, are expected to benefit crop yields in temperate regions.
However, in low-latitude regions, moderate temperature increases (1–2ºC) are likely to have
negative yield impacts for major cereals. Warming of more than 3ºC would have negative
impacts in all regions (IPCC 2007b).
The interaction of temperature increases and changing rainfall patterns determines the impact of
climate change on soil moisture. With rising temperatures, both evaporation and precipitation are
expected to increase. The resulting net effect on water availability would depend on which force
is more dominant. Temperature is another important variable influencing crop production
particularly during rabi season. A general warming trend has been predicted for India but
knowing temporal and spatial distribution of the trend is of equal importance. Lal (2001)
reported that annual mean area-averaged surface warming over the Indian sub-continent is likely
to range between 3.5 and 5.5 oC by 2080s (Table 1).
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Table 1 : Projected mean temperature changes over the Indian subcontinent Year
Temperature change (0C)

Year Season Lowest Highest
2020s Annual 1.00 1.41
Rabi 1.08 1.54
Kharif 0.87 1.17
2050s Annual 2.23 2.87
Rabi 2.54 3.18
Kharif 1.81 2.37
2080s Annual 3.53 5.55
Rabi 4.14 6.31
Kharif 2.91 4.62
(Source: Lal R, 2001) , Table .2
Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration can have a positive impact on crops yields by
stimulating plant photosynthesis and reducing the water loss via plant respiration. This carbon
fertilization effect is strong for so-called C3 crops1, such as rice, wheat, soybeans, fine grains,
legumes, and most trees, which have a lower rate of photosynthetic efficiency. For C4 crops like
maize, millet, sorghum, sugarcane and many grasses, these effects are much smaller. Other factors
such as a plant’s growth stage, or the application of water and nitrogen, can also impact the effect of
elevated CO2 on plant yield.
Besides temperature and carbon concentration, some other ecological changes brought on by global
warming will also have impacts on agriculture. For example, the patterns of pests and diseases may
change with climate change, leading to reductions in agricultural production. Moreover, agricultural
productivity will be depressed by increased climate variability and increased intensity and frequency
of extreme events such a drought and floods. These further contribute to the difficulties in estimating
of agricultural productivity impacts of climate change
The output of the studies so far carried out by Agarwal (2009), have indicated that a marginal
1°C increase in atmospheric temperature along with increase in CO2 concentration would cause
very minimal reduction in wheat production of India if simple adaptation strategies like
adjustment of planting date and varieties are adopted uniformly. But in absence of any adaptive
mechanism, the yield loss in wheat can go up to 6 million tonnes. A further rise by 5 0C may
cause loss of wheat production up to 27.5 million tonnes. Similarly, rice yields may decline by
6% for every one degree increase in temperature (Saseendran et al. ,2000).
Climate Change and Food Security in India
At the heart of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are targets to end hunger, achieve
food security, and improve nutrition. For India, food security continues to be high on its list of
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development priorities because the country's relatively high rates of economic growth have not
led to a reduction in hunger and under nutrition. India's gross domestic product at factor cost and
per capita income grew at seven percent and five percent per annum,1 respectively, from 1990-
91 to 2013-14.(Fig. From RBI).However, the incidence of under nutrition has dropped only
marginally from 210.1 million in 1990 to 194.6 million in 2014, and India has failed to meet the
Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of people who suffer from hunger.
About 12 Indian states fall under the 'alarming' category of the Global Hunger Index. According
to the National Family Health Survey 2015-16, the proportion of children under five years who
are underweight is significantly high in states such as Bihar (43.9 percent), Madhya Pradesh
(42.8 percent) and 3 Andhra Pradesh (31.9 percent). [Source: Figures from NFHS-4 Fact Sheets
for Key Indicators Based on Final Data. http://rchiips.org/nfhs/ factsheet_nfhs-4.shtml.]
While large sections of the Indian population suffer from acute undernutrition, rising incomes
and growing urbanisation are rapidly changing the composition of the food basket—away from
cereals to high-value agricultural commodities 4, 5 such as fish and meat. As a result, the total
demand for foodgrains is projected to be higher in the future due to an increase in population as
well as a growing indirect demand from the feed.(Mittal,2008) has made long-term projections
of India's food demand and supply up to 2026.According to her, the increase in total food
demand is mainly due to growth in population and per capita income while production is likely
to be severely constrained by low yield growth Moreover, it will be difficult to meet India's
longterm food requirements with domestic production alone. Kumar et al (2009), also found that
with current production trends, meeting future demand for food grains through domestic
production will be difficult.
Per capita net Availability of Food Grains (as on 17-03-2017)

( 000 Tonnes otherwise mentioned)
Year Populationin Production Net Changeof Net PerCapitaNetAvailability
thousand Gross Net Imports Stocks availability Kg.peryear Gramsperday

RICE
2014 1244036 106650 98545 -11577 -2955 89923 72.3 198.0
2015 1259108 105480 97464 -11032 946 85486 67.9 186.0
2016 1273986 104410 96475 -10043 786 85646 67.2 184.2
2017(P) 1288522 108860 100587 -10190 789 89608 69.5 190.5
WHEAT
2014 1244036 95850 84252 -4078 -2934 83108 66.8 183.0
2015 1259108 86530 76060 -176 -1325 77209 61.3 168.0
2016 1273986 92290 81123 1693 -10041 92857 72.9 199.7
2017(P) 1288522 96640 84947 2772 -8783 96502 74.9 205.2
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OTHERCEREALS
2014 1244036 43290 32269 -4324 -121 28066 22.6 61.8
2015 1259108 42860 36753 -1189 -156 35720 28.4 77.7
2016 1273986 38520 33705 -349 45 33311 26.1 71.6
2017(P) 1288522 44340 38798 -283 87 38428 29.8 81.7
CEREALS
2014 1244036 245790 215066 -19979 -6010 201097 161.6 442.9
2015 1259108 234870 205511 -12397 -535 193649 153.8 421.4
2016 1273986 235220 205818 -8699 -9210 206329 162.0 443.7
2017(P) 1288522 249840 218610 -7701 -7907 218816 169.8 465.3
PULSES
2014 1244036 19250 16844 4230 0 21074 16.9 46.4
2015 1259108 17150 15006 5115 0 20121 16.0 43.8
2016 1273986 16350 14306 5951 241 20016 15.7 43.0
2017(P) 1288522 22140 19373 5921 436 24858 19.3 52.9
FOODGRAINS
2014 1244036 265040 231910 -15749 -6010 222171 178.6 489.3
2015 1259108 252020 220518 -7282 -535 213771 169.8 465.1
2016 1273986 251570 220124 -2748 -8969 226345 177.7 486.8
2017(P) 1288522 271980 237983 -1780 -7471 243674 189.1 518.1
Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics, [ https://eands.dacnet.nic.in/PDF/PerCapita-FoodGrains.pdf ]
Table : 3
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In developing countries like India, climate change has been the most burning issue for agriculture
practices. The changing temperature and rainfall patterns and increasing carbon dioxide level will
definitely have significant effects on agriculture and thus on food security of India. The
significance of its dimensions and the overall impact of climate change on it will differ across
regions and over time. Unbalanced use of nutrients, low water use efficiency, continued high
demographic pressure, changes in pest/disease patterns, soil erosion, degradation and poor health,
etc. would further worsen the situation. In the likely event of enhanced adverse impacts of climate
change on agriculture in developing countries like India, where poverty is also concentrated,
mitigation and adaptation strategies would demand far greater research and development effort,
and financial, institutional and policy support.
Addressing climate change and sustainable development
While climate change results from activities all over the globe (with rather unevenly spread
contributions to it), it may lead to very different impacts in different countries, depending on
local/regional environmental conditions and on differences in vulnerability to climate change,
independent of the contributions to climate change of these countries. It is likely to undermine the
sustainability of livelihoods as well as development. The worst impacts will fall on developing
countries, in part because of their geographical location, in part because of weak coping
capacities, and in part because of more vulnerable social, institutional, and physical
infrastructures.
Sustainable development has become part of all climate change policy discussions at the global level,
particularly due to adoption of Agenda 21 and the various Conventions resulting from the UNCED-1992.
The generally accepted and used definition as given by the Brundtland Commission is ‘development that
meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own
needs’( Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED),1987). Sustainable
development has become an integrating concept embracing economic, social and environmental issues.
Sustainable development does not preclude the use of exhaustible natural resources but requires that any
use be appropriately offset. This concept is not acceptable to many developing countries since it seems to
disregard their aspirations for growth and development. Further, sustainable development cannot be
achieved without significant economic growth in the developing countries [Goldemberg, et.al., 1996).
Three critical components in promoting sustainable development are economic growth, social equity and
environmental sustainability. The question often asked is, should the current economic growth (GNP,
employment, etc.) be sacrificed for long-term environmental conservation? Policy makers in developing
countries often perceive a trade off between economic growth and environmental sustainability. However,
there is a growing evidence to show that environmental conservation for sustainability of natural resources
is not a luxury but a necessity when considering long-term economic growth and development, particularly
in the least developed countries. The decline and degradation of natural resources such as land soil, forests,
biodiversity and groundwater, resulting from current unsustainable use patterns are likely to be aggravated
due to climate change in the next 25 to 50 years.
Another example is the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), which is a multi-stakeholder process
and an independent institution whose mission is to develop and disseminate globally applicable
Sustainability Reporting Guidelines.
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These guidelines are for voluntary use by organizations for reporting on the economic,
environmental and social dimensions of their activities, products, and
services. Started in 1997, GRI is an official collaborating centre of the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) and works in cooperation with UN’s Global Compact.
The United Nations Millennium Project’s task force on environmental sustainability (Melnick et
al.,2005) recommended a series of mitigative measures (such as: investment in cost-eff ective and
sustainable energy technologies, elimination of distorting subsidies favouring fossil fuels at the
expense of renewable alternatives, the development of climate-friendly markets—e.g. carbon
trading, targets for concentrations of GHGs, rationalized consumption and production patterns).
There appears to be scope for strategies and development paths that would potentially lead to
gains in terms of development as well as climate change mitigation objectives (Gupta 1997).
Examples are the gains from energy efficiency increases, mutual reinforcement in areas such as
combating desertification and food security, forestry and sustainable development through
‘payment for environmental services’ schemes. At the domestic or national level, one sees
demand for energy and transportation rising fast in many developing countries. Decisions made
now on what technologies to deploy may have huge impacts on development paths and associated
future emission levels.
Economic growth continues to be a widely pursued objective of most governments, and therefore,
the sustainability of long term growth is a key issue (Munasinghe et al. 2001) –in particular,
reducing the intensity of GHG emissions of human activities is an important step in mitigating
climate change (Munasinghe 2000). Given that the majority of the world population lives under
conditions of absolute poverty, a climate change strategy that unduly constrained growth
prospects in those areas would be more unattractive. A sustainomics based approach would seek
to identify measures that modify the structure of development and growth rather than restricting it,
so that GHG emissions are mitigated and adaptation options enhanced.
The above approach is illustrated in Figure 3, which shows how a country’s GHG emissions
might vary with its level of development. One would expect carbon emissions to rise more rapidly
during the early stages of development (along AB), and begin to level off only when per capita
incomes are higher (along BC). A typical developing country would be at a point such as B on the
curve, and an industrialized nation might be at C. The key point is that if the developing countries
were to follow the growth path of the industrialized world, then atmospheric concentrations of
GHGs would soon rise to dangerous levels. The risk of exceeding the safe limit (shaded area)
could be avoided by adopting sustainable development strategies that would permit developing
countries to progress along a path such as BD (and eventually DE), while also reducing GHG
emissions in industrialized countries along CE.
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Fig. 5
Fig.2: Development Level (e.g. per capita income),Source: adapted from Munasinghe (1995)
This representation also illustrates the complementarities of the optimal and durable approaches
discussed earlier. It has been shown that the higher path ABC in the Figure could be caused by
economic imperfections which make private decisions deviate from socially optimal ones
(Munasinghe 1998c). Thus the adoption of corrective policies would reduce such divergences from
optimality and reduce GHG emissions per unit of output, thereby facilitating movement along the
lower path ABD. Concurrently, the durability viewpoint suggests that flattening the peak of
environmental damage (at C) would be especially desirable to avoid exceeding the safe limit or
threshold representing dangerous accumulations of GHGs (shaded area in Figure 5,above).
The key environmental challenges in India have been sharper in the past two decades. The State of
the Environment Report by the MoEF clubs the issues under five key challenges faced by India,
which are climate change , food security, water security, energy security, and managing
urbanization. Climate change is impacting the natural ecosystems and is expected to have
substantial adverse effects in India, mainly on agriculture on which 58 per cent of the population
still depends for livelihood, water storage in the Himalayan glaciers which are the source of major
rivers and groundwater recharge, sea-level rise, and threats to a long coastline and habitations.
Wary of the threats imposed by climate change and pressures on natural resources, sustainability
and environment are increasingly taking centre stage in the Indian policy domain. India has been
part of 94 multilateral environmental agreements. India has also voluntarily agreed to reduce its
emission intensity of its GDP by 20-25 per cent over 2005 levels by 2020, and emissions from the
agriculture sector would not form part of the assessment of its emissions intensity.
( http://indiabudget.nic.in -https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/budget2013-2014/es2012-13/echap-12.pdf
The most effective way to address climate change is to adopt a sustainable development pathway
by shifting to environmentally sustainable technologies and promotion of energy efficiency,
renewable energy, forest conservation, reforestation, water conservation, etc. The issue of highest
importance to developing countries is reducing the vulnerability of their natural and socio-
economic systems to the projected climate change. India and other developing countries will face
the challenge of promoting mitigation and adaptation strategies, bearing the cost of such an effort,
and its implications for economic development.
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Odisha Govt. Support for Sustainability of Agriculture Sector:
Odisha is an agrarian State. Agriculture is the lifeline of the State’s economy as it provides
employment to about 62 percent of total workforce of the State. The State has total geographical
area of 155.71 lakh hectares of which total cultivated land is about 61.80 lakh hectares which
constitutes about 39.69% of the total geographical area of the State. Small and marginal farmers
constitute more than 90% of the farming community.
The State has taken several steps for the sustainable development of agriculture and allied sectors.
In order to provide special emphasis growth and allocation of funds to these sectors,a separate
Agriculture budget is being presented from 2013-14 thereby enhancing the budget outlay of
agriculture & allied sectors from ` 7162 crore in 2013-14 to `14930 crore during 2017-18 and it
has further been proposed to enhance to `16765 crore during 2018-19. With a view to empower
farmers of the State, the Agriculture Department has been renamed as Department of Agriculture
and Farmers’ Empowerment. In order to facilitate development of short term and long term plan
and strategies for empowerment and overall development & growth of agriculture and allied
sectors “Agriculture Cabinet” as a Committee of Cabinet has been constituted in the State. State
was awarded with the prestigious “Krishi Karman Award” for the fourth times during 2010-11,
2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15. The Government has formulated State Agriculture Policy 2013 to
have a defi nite growth in Agriculture Sector by providing enhanced assistance to the farming
community and other stakeholders of the State. Government is committed to usher in a sustainable
and inclusive growth in the Agriculture Sector as the Sector is still the “mainstay” of Odisha’s
economy.
For the year 2018-19, Department has proposed a Budget provision of `776.7877 crore under
Administrative Expenditure. Besides, a provision of ` 3941.8763 crore has been proposed under
Programme Expenditure which includes ` 1982.34 crore for State Sector Schemes and ` 1959.53
crore for Centrally Sponsored Scheme (CSS). The provisions for CSS include `750.00 crore under
Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY), `161.53 crore for National Food Security Mission
(NFSM), ` 80.00 crore under National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA), `27.00 crore
under National Mission on Oilseed & Oil Palm (NMOOP), ` 350.48 crore for National Mission on
Agricultural Extension & Technology (NMAET), ` 103.53 crore under National Horticulture
Mission (NHM), ` 155.20 crore under Integrated Watershed Management Programme (IWMP),
`50.00 crore under World Bank assisted Neeranchal Project, ` 30.53 crore under Paramparagat
Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY), `250 crore under Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana
(PMKSY) etc. (Source : Activity Report,Govt of Odisha,Deptt. Of Agriculture and Farmer
Empower ,2018-19)
Conclusion
Climate Change has emerged as one of the most serious environmental concerns of our times,
which is a global phenomenon with diverse local impacts. There is a need to pay adequate
attention to the concerns of developing countries on vulnerability and adaptation issues; hence
Adaptation is the key theme for the eight Conference of Parties of UNFCCC at New Delhi,let us
expect this should not be a substitute for Mitigation for cutting back emissions. The New Delhi
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Declaration should provide us with a sound basis for global cooperation, reflecting the consensus
that addressing the challenge of climate change as an integral part of achieving sustainable
development to create a better world for all our people
It can be concluded that the Indian region is highly sensitive to climate change. Agriculture sector
is the most prone sector as it will have a direct bearing on the living of 1.2 billion people.India has
set a target of halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (Gautam &Sharma,2012).
There is an urgent need for coordinated efforts to strengthen the research to assess the impact of
climate change on agriculture, forests, animal husbandry, aquatic life and other living beings
Acknowledgement: Authors are obliged to their respective Employer for receiving

encouragement and constant support.
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AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTIVITY IN INDIA: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES

Climate Change: Emerging Challenges for Agriculture, Food Security and

Engg. Shops, Rourkela Steel Plant, SAIL Dean, BRMIMS,Bhubaneswar

Sustainable development is “a process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the

Impact of climate change on vulnerable countries

Projected Impact of Climate Change

Adaptation to climate change

Vulnerability to climatic changes

Vulnerability (Source: adapted from Allen Consulting Group)

• how sensitive or affected it is to this change (sensitivity);

Vulnerability to food insecurity: exposure, sensitivity and (adaptive) capacity

(Source: CCAFS 2011) Fig.3

Odisha : A State on move

Agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA)

Year Total GVA Agriculture &

Changing Climate Pattern and its Impact on Indian Agriculture:

Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture :

Temperature change (0C)

Climate Change and Food Security in India

Per capita net Availability of Food Grains (as on 17-03-2017)

thousand Gross Net Imports Stocks availability Kg.peryear Gramsperday

Addressing climate change and sustainable development

Odisha Govt. Support for Sustainability of Agriculture Sector:

Acknowledgement: Authors are obliged to their respective Employer for receiving

Climate Change,Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report

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