Original Paper
Landslides (2012) 9:349–356 S. J. Harris I R. P. Orense I K. Itoh
DOI 10.1007/s10346-011-0309-1
Received: 13 April 2011
Accepted: 10 November 2011 Back analyses of rainfall-induced slope failure
Published online: 2 December 2011
© Springer-Verlag 2011
in Northland Allochthon formation
Abstract To verify numerical models used for the development of
an early warning system for rainfall induced landslides, a back
analysis of a roadway embankment adjacent to State Highway 1 in
Silverdale, New Zealand has been undertaken. The embankment
collapsed in June 2008 as a result of prolonged rainfall. The
failure occurred in a cut slope through the landslide-prone
Northland Allochthon formation. Using volumetric water content
sensors and a rainfall gauge, recordings were made of the field
response of the soil due to rainfall events during the 2010 winter.
Saturated/unsaturated seepage analyses were undertaken using
empirically obtained soil parameters to simulate the variation in
the monitored volumetric water contents in conjunction with a
slope stability analysis to determine the factor of safety of the
slope. The rainfall record that caused the slope failure was then
applied as an influx to this model to determine the factor of safety
against slope failure. If modelled correctly, this factor of safety
should reach a minimum at the same time the landslide occurred.
If a good agreement between the models and the field observa-
tions is reached, the models can be used to create a cost-effective
early warning system.
Keywords Rainfall . Slope failure . Field monitoring . Seepage
analyses
Introduction
Various regions of New Zealand are susceptible to rainfall induced
landslides. This is due to a combination of the precipitation
patterns, the topography and the geotechnical characteristics of
certain New Zealand soils. It can also be attributed to the change
in land use of which many parts of New Zealand has undergone in
the last 150 years (Brooks et al. 2002). In 2008, GNS Science
recorded 313 significant landslides, most of which were triggered
by rainstorms. These landslides caused damage at the cost of
several million dollars (NIWA and GNS Science 2009).
In an effort to mitigate the cost of such landslides, a site-specific
early warning system is being developed by the authors for a site that
experienced a landslide in the winter of 2008. This warning system is
designed to be relatively cheap to implement, using simple in situ
instrumentation and well-known modelling techniques. The warn-
ing system should also be easy to replicate at most sites susceptible to
rainfall induced landslides. To meet these criteria, empirical
relationships are used to establish the parameters used in numerical
modelling. The use of such empirical relationships leads to
inaccuracy within the models, which in this case may lead to false
alarms and missed events with in the warning system. This paper
shows that an agreeable degree of accuracy can be achieved using
numerical modelling techniques, despite the use of empirical
relationships to quantify soil parameters, provided field monitoring
is used to calibrate the models. These models can then be used to
develop a cost-effective early warning system.
Field monitoring consisting of volumetric water content sensors
to record the fluctuating water content of the soil at a site prone to
rainfall-induced landslides was undertaken. 2D finite element
modelling (FEM) was used to replicate this fluctuating water content
due to rainfall events. A limit equilibrium analyses was performed at
each time step in the FEM to determine the factor of safety (FOS)
against slope failure. To calibrate these models, the 2008 rainfall data
that caused a landslide at the site was used as an influx into the
models. If calibrated correctly, the model should approach a factor of
safety close to unity at the same time as when the landslide occurred
at the site. This study is, hence, a detailed back analysis in which the
pore pressure distribution at the time of failure is estimated using the
actual rainfall data and hydraulic characteristics of the site.
Site description
The site, shown in Fig. 1, is located in Silverdale, approximately
30 km north of New Zealand’s largest city, Auckland. It was
formed from an 11-m cut operation during the construction of
State Highway One, which lies at the toe of the slope. This site was
selected because of the effect a future landslide occurring at this
site would have on the Auckland roading network. Because the
site is man-made, it is also linear along its length, making the
FEM involved in the project more viable. The slope angle is
approximately 15°, which is similar to many natural slopes in the
region (O’Sullivan 2009). A bench was formed at mid-height of
the slope, with counterfort trench drains discharging onto a dish
drain placed on this bench. A subsoil drain is located at the toe of
the slope. The site is grassed, with a row of low height trees and
shrubs present at mid-height of the slope. The soil at the site
largely consists of the Northland Allochthon residual soil.
The original design reports for the site initially gave a factor
of safety of approximate unity during periods of saturation, in
large part due to the weak underlying Northland Allochthon
residual soil (Tilsley 1998). Unsurprisingly then, in the winter of
2008 (approximately 10 years after completion of State Highway
One), a landslide occurred at the site following a series of
prolonged rainfall events. This landslide almost crossed over into
State Highway One, which could have had a disastrous effect on
the Auckland roading network.
Literature review
Similar field monitoring techniques have been undertaken by
various researchers. In New Zealand, Hawke and McConchie
(2011) monitored an ‘incipient’ landslide in Hawke’s Bay. In an
effort to explain the failure mechanism of the site in relation to
rainfall patterns, they monitored the fluctuating volumetric water
content of the soil and its piezometric response to recorded rainfall
events over a 5-year period. Further afield, a similar study was
undertaken by Zhan et al. (2007) who used tensiometers, moisture
probes and a vee-notch flow metre to study the infiltration
characteristics and runoff amounts from a naturally grassed slope
due to artificial rainfall events. Such instruments are also widely
used in laboratory scale models, for example, Orense et al. (2004).
Landslides 9 & (2012) 349
 Original Paper
Fig. 1 The monitored site. The
landslide occurred in the winter of
2008. State Highway One can be seen
at the toe of the slope. The site
location is shown in the map insert

The increase in computational power over the last 15 years has (ICT International). These sensors were placed along the same
enabled many authors to make use of a FEM in conjunction with a cross section of the site, approximately 45 m from the existing
limit equilibrium analyses when investigating the effects of rainfall
on slope stability (for example, Collins and Znidarcic 2004;
Rahardjo et al. 2007; Chen et al. 2009; Rahardjo et al. 2010). Of
note, Rahardjo et al. (2010) applied idealised rainfall events as an
influx into an typical slope (in the Singapore region) using the FEM
Seepage software SEEP/W (GeoStudio). The pore pressure profile
generated from this was then imported into the limit equilibrium
analyses program SLOPE/W in order to study the fluctuating factor
of safety due to rainfall events. The computer analyses undertaken
in this study is similar to that conducted by Rahardjo et al. (2010).
The Northern Allochthon soil group, which is present in large
areas of Northland, New Zealand (Lentfer 2007) is well-known for
its susceptibly to landsliding and creep, and the subsequent effect
on engineering structures (Winkler 2003; O’Sullivan 2009). The
susceptibility of this soil to landsliding arises from its low shear
strength and low permeability, which results in a soil remaining
nearly saturated all year long (Winkler 2003). In general, slopes in
the Northland Allochthon soil group consist of an upper layer of a
residual silty clayey soil with very low permeability; however, this
soil is susceptible to fissuring due to the seasonal shrink swell
movement of the soil. Between this residual layer and the low
permeability highly fractured bedrock lies a transition zone of
broken rock fragments, silts and clays. It is understood that both
the creep like failures and translational sliding associated with the
Northern Allochthon soil group occurs within this transition zone
(Lentfer 2007).

Methodology
Thirteen volumetric water content sensors were installed at 0.5-m
depth intervals to a total depth of 2 m at three locations at the
site. The approximate locations of these sensors, in relation to the
existing landslide, are shown in Fig. 2. These sensors consisted of
eleven ECH20 probes (Decagon Devices) and two MP406 sensors Fig. 2 The location of the sensors in relation to the existing landslide at the site

350 Landslides 9 & (2012)

landslide. The probes were installed by hand augering to the
desired depth and using a PVC tube to push the sensors into the
soil. The auger holes were backfilled and compacted following
installation of the sensors. A tipping bucket rain gauge (ICT
International) was installed at the site to monitor rainfall events,
at mid-height of the slope. This tipping bucket rain gauge has a
resolution size of 0.2 mm. The SL5-1 L data logger (ICT
International), powered via a solar panel, recorded the data at
15-min intervals. This rainfall record obtained at the site for 2010
was then input as an influx into a FEM. A negative flux with a
constant value was applied as an influx to the FEM between
rainfall events as a means to account for evaporation. The results
of this FEM were calibrated with the results obtained from the
sensors; that is, the soil parameters (in particular the saturated
coefficient of permeability) and negative flux values were adjusted
until the FEM was in agreement with the sensors. Once the model
was calibrated, the 2008 hourly rainfall record that caused the
landslide was input as an influx into the FEM. The same negative
flux value that was obtained using the 2010 rainfall data was used
in the 2008 rainfall data. A limit equilibrium analyses was
undertaken at each time step of this FEM to determine the factor
of safety of the slope. The models used for both the monitored
Fig. 3 The location of the NIWA
rainfall stations in relation to the site
cross section and the landslide cross section were essentially
identical, the only difference being the thickness of the completely
weathered Northland Allochthon layer. This layer was modelled
as being slightly thicker in the landslide cross section (Tilsley
1998). The factor of safety should be at a minimum (close to
unity) at the same time when failure occurred at the site. If this
can be achieved, the models can be used to develop an early
warning system without the use of extensive laboratory testing.
2008 rainfall data
Because the field monitoring was not in progress during the 2008
rainfall events that caused the landslide, the 2008 hourly rainfall
record was obtained from three nearby meteorological stations
maintained by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric
Research (NIWA). The locations of these sites, in relation to the
landslide site, are shown in Fig. 3. A weighted average of the
rainfall data from the three stations based on the distance of the
stations from the site was applied to the rainfall record obtained
from these stations. This same technique was used for the 2010
data, and the rainfall record obtained compared with that
obtained directly from the field monitoring. This comparison is
Landslides 9 & (2012) 351
 Original Paper
seen in the top graphs of Fig. 6. As observed, the rainfall records
obtained from the two methods are similar, and the accuracy of
this method should be sufficient for this research. One discrep-
ancy appears to be that the rainfall durations of extreme intensity
are not captured in the NIWA data. This is probably a
consequence of the variable nature of rainstorms and the
averaging of the data from the three sites. For instance, a short,
very high intensity rainfall event may fall on the site and on one
NIWA station, but the rainfall may be far less intense at the other
two stations. This averaging technique, hence, dilutes the intense
rainfall that occurred at the site. Because of the low permeability
of the soil at the site, however, it is likely that most of the actual
rainwater from these intense rainfall events occurs as runoff and,
thus, has little effect on the slope stability.
Computer modelling
The software SEEP/W (GeoStudio) was used to undertake the
FEM, in conjunction with SLOPE/W (GeoStudio) for the limit
equilibrium analyses. This software package allows the pore
pressure profile from the FEM to be directly imported into the
limit equilibrium analyses. Because the overall aim of this project
is to develop a site-specific early warning system that can be
replicated with ease, commercially-based software packages that
are well-known to geotechnical engineers were used to enable the
methodology to be replicated more easily.
The rainfall record was applied as a unit influx into the FEM
using an hourly time step. When selecting a time step, it was noted
that there was a trade-off between the accuracy obtained and the
time taken for the analyses to run. Too long a time step, for example
1 day, averages the rainfall out over too long a period, meaning that
more rainwater infiltrates the slope during short, high intensity
events than what normally would. Too short a time step leads to
impractical analyses times. After several different analyses trials, it
was concluded that a time step of 1 h gave the best combination of
run-time and accuracy. For this study, the initial matric suction
profile was obtained by stipulating a water table at a depth of
approximately 2 m below the ground surface and following the slope
profile. It is noted by Rahardjo et al. (2007) that the depth of the
initial water table only has a secondary effect on the results of the
analyses as it usually only affects the initial factor of safety. Once
more rainfall data on the site has been obtained, it is planned to use
the long-term rainfall pattern in a seepage analyses to derive the
initial pore pressure profile for the site.
The toe drain at the site was modelled as having a constant total
head (elevation head + piezometric head) equal to the elevation of
the toe drain. Thus, it is assumed that this toe drain is capable of
draining all water away from the site. Site observations indicate that
this assumption is valid as there was no evidence of ponding
occurring in this drain during the winter months. It was assumed
that the conterfort drains installed midway up the slope were derelict
or ineffective. This assumption, made for simplicity, was based on
the current condition of the pipes and references made by Winkler
(2003) to the ineffectiveness of such drainage systems in the low
permeability soils of the Northland Allochthon. As these drains,
consisting of perforated PVC pipes, were of relatively small diameter
(approximately 65 mm) compared to their spacing (approximately
10 m), it is difficult to quantify their effectiveness in a 2D FEM.
Following a rainfall event, water could be seen seeping out of some,
but not all of these drains, indicating that some are still operational.
352 Landslides 9 & (2012)
It is possible that the blockage of these drains could have been a
contributing factor in the landslide of 2008 (Transfield Services (New
Zealand) Ltd. 2008).
The boundaries of the bottom and sides of the model were
defined as no-flow boundaries on the basis of symmetry. The model
mesh was automatically generated into 1-m square grids using the
automatic mesh generation available in SEEP/W; however, in the
upper 2 m of the model, this mesh was gradually refined into a 0.25-
m square grid in order to fully capture the advancement of the
wetting front. This FEM is shown in Fig. 4.
SEEP/W was used to calculate the matric suction/pore water
pressure profile of the slope at each hourly time step. Each matric
suction profile was then imported into SLOPE/W for limit
equilibrium analyses.
The grid and radius function was used to find the slip centre and
the failure surface using SLOPE/W. Because the failure surface of the
existing landslide is relatively circular (Transfield Services (New
Zealand) Ltd. 2008), the circular failure surface assumed in the limit
equilibrium analyses is valid. The Morgenstern and Price method
was used to evaluate the factor of safety of the slope at each time step
in the FEM.
Soil properties
Following numerous geotechnical investigations, as part of this
research, as part of the geotechnical investigation for the
construction of State Highway One, and as part of a nearby
housing development, the site was modelled as having three
separate soil layers: an upper alluvium layer (possibly part of the
Tauranga group or a re-deposited Northland Allochthon), the
completely weathered Northland Allochthon layer and a moder-
ately weathered Northland Allochthon layer. These layers are
shown in Fig. 4. The soil–water characteristic curve (SWCC)
required for the saturated/unsaturated FEM was determined
empirically. The SWCCs were estimated based on the grain size
distributions, using the Arya and Paris method (Arya and Paris
1981). Parameter α was assumed to be 1.1 as the soil is fine
textured (Arya et al. 1982) as cited in Arya et al. (1999). It is noted
that α is not constant but varies along the suction range and
because of the complexities of the development of matric suction,
Fig. 4 The numerical model used in the analyses, showing the stratigraphy at the
site. The red circles represent the approximate locations of the sensors
α should be estimated from experimental SWCC data rather than
as a geometric constant (Arya et al. 1999). Whilst these
assumptions will likely limit accuracy, it allows the modelling to
be undertaken without extensive laboratory testing. The SWCCs
determined from this method (plotted with respect to the degree
of saturation) are shown in Fig. 5.
To model the permeability/matric suction relationship, the
equation proposed by Van Genuchten (1980) was fitted to these
empirically derived equations (Eq. 1)

s 
r

w ¼
r þ 
n m ð1Þ
1 þ ya
where θw is the water content, θr is the residual water content, θs is
the saturated water content, y is the matric suction, and a, n and
m are fitting parameters. The saturated permeability and the Van
Genuchten parameters were altered in the FEM until the model
was in agreement with the field monitored results.
The shear strengths of the soil were initially obtained from
those estimated in the original design of the embankment. These
shear strengths were obtained from a variety of back analyses,
shear strength tests and experience with the soils within the
region. The shear strength parameters adopted are shown in
Table 1. The shear strength component due to matric suction was
estimated based on Eq. (2) as set out by Vanapalli et al. (1996).
  

w 
r
fb ¼ tan f 0 ð2Þ

s 
r
where f b is the angle of shearing resistance with respect to matric
suction, f ′ is the normal angle of shearing resistance, and θw, θr
and θs are the water content, saturated water content and residual
water content (by volume) of the soil, respectively. As with the
SWCC, the use of this equation enables us to develop these
models without extensive laboratory testing, making the model-
ling, and warning system more cost-effective.
Results and discussion
Figure 6 shows the results obtained from the field monitoring
during the winter months of 2010. Time t=0 corresponds to
Fig. 5 SWCC’s obtained using the Arya and Paris (1981) method
Table 1 Estimated shear strength parameters (Tilsley 1998)
Soil type + (kN/m3) c′ (kPa) Φ′ (°)
Alluvium/re-deposited 16 3 28
Allochthon
Completely weathered 17 0 17
Northland Allochthon
Moderately weathered 17 5 28
Allochthon
10.00 am on the 19th of May, 2010. The upper graph shows the
hourly rainfall recorded at the site throughout the winter.
Rainfall data obtained from the NIWA sites throughout the
same period are shown below this plot to evaluate the
accuracy of using the method described above. The third
graph depicts the volumetric water content (θw) of the shallow
sensors (0.5-m deep), and the bottom graph shows the θw of
the deeper sensors (approximately 1.5-m deep). The first
rainfall event observed was the first significant rainfall in
2010, following a prolonged dry period.
Field monitoring results—shallow sensors
As observed in Fig. 6, the water content at shallow depths
fluctuates greatly with each rainfall event. The θw of the soil at
both the mid-height of the slope (dashed line) and at the toe of
the slope (solid line) increases rapidly during each significant
rainfall event, often reaching saturation (θw of approximately
38%) throughout the winter period. The θw at mid-height of the
slope then recovers rapidly following each rainfall event. The soil
at the toe of the slope, however, appears to stay saturated for a
longer period of time following a rainfall event. This is either due
to the flow of water from upslope of the sensors or due to the
variation in soil properties at the site. Although initially the soil
recovers very rapidly and linearly, once a certain θw is reached
(approximately 34% for the mid-height sensor and 31% for the toe
sensor), θw decreases at a diminishing rate, and as a result, the
degree of saturation rarely drops below 80% for the entire winter
period for these shallow sensors.
Field monitoring results—deep sensors
Referring to the deep sensors (bottom graph of Fig. 6), apart from
an initial increase in θw at the start of the monitoring period, the
water content at this depth appeared to stay at a constant value
for the entire winter. This indicates that the soil at this depth
remains saturated or nearly saturated over the entire season.
These results are consistent with that described in the
literature. Hawke and McConchie (2011) reported that the
volumetric water content of the soil at 250 mm deep fluctuated
greatly at each significant rainfall event. At a 500-m depth, the
fluctuations were more gradual, and at a depth of 1,000 mm the
soil water content rarely fluctuated over an entire year. This is
also consistent with the observations of O’Sullivan (2009) and
Winkler (2003) who suggested that due to the low permeability of
the soil, the water table remains high, and the soil fully saturated,
throughout the entire year. This explains why the water content at
approximately 1.5 m deep rarely fluctuated throughout the
monitoring period.
Landslides 9 & (2012) 353
 Original Paper
Fig. 6 Results obtained from the field monitoring. Elapsed time = 0 corresponds to 10.00 am of the 19th of May 2010
The fluctuations in the water content of the shallow soil
indicate that the wetting front advances below these sensors for
significant rainfall events. The difficulty in interpreting this data is
determining if these fluctuations are a true reflection of the
advancement and retreat of the wetting front or are they
exaggerated due to an increase in permeability or changing void
ratio of the soil around the sensors. Installation of the sensors
could have led to localised cracks around the sensor location,
thus, increasing the local permeability and affecting the local void
ratio. This would pose problems in that the results obtained from
the sensors would be skewed due to the installation process itself,
and thus, the results not a fair reflection of the soil response to
these rainfall events. Rootlets of the vegetation at the site (which
were recorded to an approximate depth of 500 mm in hand
augers undertaken) would also allow water to infiltrate into the
soil more easily, thus, exaggerating these fluctuations. In this case,
the sensors would represent the soil response as the vegetation is
fairly consistent throughout the site.
The soil experiences heavy shrink/swell movement leading to
large cracks up to 30-mm wide and 500-mm deep occurring in dry
periods usually over the summer/autumn period (the landslide
occurred in mid-winter). Because the landslide at the site
occurred during the rainy season, when there were no shrinkage
cracks visible, modelling the effect of such shrinkage cracking was
354 Landslides 9 & (2012)
ignored in this research. The incorporation of such shrinkage
cracks in the modelling would require modifications to the matric
suction/permeability curves. The permeability, in particular, the
vertical permeability, would need to begin to increase significantly
at the level of matric suction when cracking began. This research
is, hence, based on the assumption that the low permeability of
the soil means the site is more susceptible to long duration, low
intensity rainfall when shrinkage cracks are not present rather
than high intensity events. It is noted that for sites with soils of
high permeability, this cracking would need to be incorporated
into the analyses.
Computer modelling
Figure 7 depicts the comparison between the FEM-calculated θw
and the field-measured θw for the first 1,000 h of the field
monitoring. The FEM was reasonably successful at replicating the
fluctuating volumetric water content of the soil. Whilst the
general pattern is captured, there is still some discrepancy
between the level of θw reached during each rainfall event and
also during the drying path of the soil. The discrepancy of the
level of the θw reached could be due to a calibration error in the
equipment occurring due to the installation process of the
sensors. A locally high void ratio around the sensor or locally
large cracks due to the augering process could account for more
Fig. 7 Comparison between the FEM θw and the field measured θw for the sensor located 0.5 m deep at mid-height of the slope. Elapsed time = 0 corresponds to
10.00 am of the 19th of May 2010
rainwater infiltrating the soil than usual during high intensity,
short duration events. This also explains why the model does not
fully capture the increase in water content between an elapsed
time of 400 and 500 h (referring to Fig. 7), where it appears that a
rainfall event that caused a minor increase in the FEM θw had a
significant effect on the field measured θw . The discrepancy
between the drying paths could possibly be due to an incorrectly
modelled SWCC. The hysteresis pattern present in the SWCC was
not incorporated into this FEM, and, hence, could explain the
discrepancy between the two paths; however, it is noted by some
authors such as Li et al. (2005) that SWCC’s in the field can show
negligible hysteresis in comparison to those obtained from
laboratory testing. Also, obtaining the wetting path of the SWCC
can be far more difficult than that for the drying path and
requires specialised laboratory equipment. By only using the
drying path to model the site means the warning system can be
replicated more easily and at a lower cost. To obtain a good
comparison between the field-measured θw and the FEM-
calculated θw, the empirically obtained SWCC for the soil required
adjustments. In particular, the air entry value had a major
influence on the fluctuating water content obtained from the
Fig. 8 2008 hourly rainfall (upper graph) and corresponding factor of safety (lower graph). Elapsed time = 0 corresponds to 12.00 am of the first of January 2008.
Based on reports, the circled rainfall event triggered the landslide
FEM, but the effect of this seemed to be relative to the saturated
permeability of the soil.
The 2008 hourly rainfall record, as shown in the upper graph
of Fig. 8, was then applied to this finite element model and limit
equilibrium analyses were undertaken at each time step. The same
constant level negative flux was applied between rainfall events as
in the 2010 data. The factor of safety (FOS) obtained from the
2008 rainfall plotted against time is shown in the lower graph of
Fig. 8. At each significant rainfall event, there is a sudden decrease
in the factor of safety. Following a significant rainfall event, the
FOS begins to gradually recover (for example, the factor of safety
increases slowly between an elapsed time of approximately 1,500
to 2,500 h, before deceasing rapidly at the next significant rainfall
event). As seen, the factor of safety reaches a minimum of
approximately 0.85 at an elapsed time of 5,000 h. According to
reports (Transfield Services (New Zealand) Ltd. 2008), movement
at the site was first noted at an elapsed time of approximately
4,400 h;, however, the propagation of failure is unknown, i.e., the
time taken from first movement to complete failure of the slope is
unknown. There may be a discrepancy then between the timing of
the failure in the analyses and that observed at the site, as in the
Landslides 9 & (2012) 355
 Original Paper
analyses the factor of safety decreases to unity slightly after this
time. Based on the time of failure in the report from Transfield
Services (New Zealand) Ltd. (2008), it would appear that the
rainfall event circled in Fig. 8 was the cause of the slope failure;
however, this analyses indicates that it was the large rainfall event
following this which caused the slope failure.
Whilst there are still some discrepancies within the model-
ling, this research has shown that an agreeable degree of accuracy
can be obtained from numerical models using empirical relation-
ships to model soil parameters, and making simple assumptions
to account for hysteresis of the SWCC and evaporation. However,
this method relies on using in situ field monitoring to calibrate
these models. This allows us to create models of slopes susceptible
to landslide failure based on field modelling without extensive,
time-consuming laboratory tests. Once calibrated, the models can
then be used in conjunction with the field monitoring to create a
cost-effective, simplistic, site-specific early warning system. It is
envisioned that by using a fully verified FEM and limit
equilibrium analyses, a database of the water content values of
the sensors at the site and their corresponding factors of safety
will be developed. An artificial neural network can then be used,
using this database as a training set, to predict the current
factor of safety using the values obtained from the sensors as
inputs. Then, during rainfall events, the water content values as
read by the sensors can be input into this artificial neural
network to predict the current factor of safety. This predicted
factor of safety will form the basis of the warning system.
These preliminary results indicate that the methodology of this
warning system is viable and can be implemented with
commercially-based software and using simplistic field moni-
toring techniques. Laboratory shear strength tests on unsatu-
rated specimens as well as determining the SWCC using the
pressure plate apparatus will be undertaken in the future to
confirm the parameters used in this analyses. It is expected
that once these have been confirmed, the accuracy of the
models will further increase.
Conclusions
Slope monitoring and numerical analyses were conducted at a site
where rainfall-induced slope failure occurred during the winter of
2008. The fluctuating field-measured θw during 2010 was
replicated in a FEM using soil–water relationships obtained based
on empirical methods. This FEM was calibrated using the results
from the field-measured data. There was small discrepancy
between the field measured and FEM-calculated water contents,
particularly during the drying path of the soil. Next, the known
rainfall pattern that caused slope failure in 2008 was applied as an
influx to the model and a limit equilibrium analysis was
undertaken at each time step to determine the factor of safety
corresponding to each rainfall event. As the factor of safety
reached a minimum of 0.85 slightly after the initial movement
was recorded, it is concluded that the model is slightly out of
calibration, which is a consequence of the simplifying assump-
tions made in the research. Nevertheless, it appears that by
calibrating the numerical models with in situ data, an agreeable
accuracy of the modelling has been achieved without the use of
extensive laboratory testing. It is envisioned that this method-
ology can be used to create a cost-effective early warning
system.
356 Landslides 9 & (2012)
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the Health and Labour Sciences
Research Grants of Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan
for funding this project. Also thanks to Hiway Geotechnical,
Babbage Consultants, the Auckland Motorways Alliance (AMA)
and Beca Consultants for their assistance with the project.
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S. J. Harris ()) : R. P. Orense
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering,
University of Auckland,
Auckland, New Zealand
e-mail: shar228@aucklanduni.ac.nz
R. P. Orense
e-mail: r.orense@auckland.ac.nz
K. Itoh
National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health,
Tokyo, Japan
e-mail: k-ito@s.jniosh.go.jp