443

Operating speed models for two-lane rural roads

in Pakistan
Rizwan A. Memon, G.B. Khaskheli, and A. Sami Qureshi

Abstract: One of the suitable techniques used to improve safety on roads is to check the consistency of geometric design.
The concept of design consistency has emerged worldwide, but no research has been found to date on design consistency
in Pakistan. The most common parameter for the evaluation of design consistency is operating speed. Several models have
been developed to predict operating speed on two-lane rural roads. However, these models were based on spot speed data
collected through traditional speed measuring devices. This study uses continuous speed profile data collected using a ve-
hicle equipped with a VBox (a global positioning system based device). Eleven test sections were selected in two provin-
ces of Pakistan (i.e., Sindh and Balochistan). Driver behavior is also studied in the present research. Models were
developed for prediction of operating speed on horizontal curves and on tangents. Validation of the developed models
shows compatibility with the experimental data; hence, the developed speed prediction models can be used to evaluate the
geometric design consistency of two-lane rural roads in Pakistan.
Key words: two-lane rural roads, operating speed, continuous speed data, driver behavior.
Résumé : Une des techniques adéquates utilisées pour améliorer la sécurité sur les routes est de vérifier l’uniformité de la
conception géométrique. Le concept d’uniformité de la conception est très populaire dans le monde, mais aucune recherche
n’a été effectuée à ce jour sur l’uniformité de la conception au Pakistan. Le paramètre le plus utilisé pour évaluer l’uni-
formité de la conception est la vitesse maximale réalisable. Plusieurs modèles ont été conçus pour prédire la vitesse maxi-
male réalisable sur les routes rurales à deux voies. Toutefois, les modèles développés étaient basés sur des données
ponctuelles de vitesse recueillies par des appareils traditionnels de mesure de la vitesse. La présente étude utilise des don-
nées continues de profils de vitesse recueillies au moyen d’un véhicule muni d’une VBox (un dispositif à base de système
de positionnnement global). Onze sections d’essai ont été sélectionnées dans deux provinces du Pakistan (Sindh et Balo-
chistan). La présente recherche a également étudié le comportement des conducteurs. Des modèles ont été développés afin
de prédire la vitesse maximale réalisable sur des courbes horizontales et sur des tangentes. La validation des modèles dé-
veloppés montre la compatibilité avec la tendance des données expérimentales; ainsi, les modèles de prévision de la vitesse
développés peuvent être utilisés pour évaluer l’uniformité des routes rurales à deux voies au Pakistan.
Mots-clés : routes rurales à deux voies, vitesse maximale réalisable, données continues de vitesse, comportement des
conducteurs.
[Traduit par la Rédaction]

Introduction ber of fatalities actually decreased by 25% in developed

The goal of transportation is generally stated as the safe
and efficient movement of people and goods. In general
terms, good geometric design means providing an adequate
level of mobility and the appropriate land use access for the
function of the roadway. This must be done while main-
taining a high degree of safety for all roadway users.
From 1968 to 1985, the number of fatalities increased by
over 300% in African countries and by over 170% in Asian
countries. On the other hand, over the same period, the num-
Received 9 September 2006. Revision accepted 7 October 2007.
Published on the NRC Research Press Web site at cjce.nrc.ca on
29 April 2008.
R.A. Memon,1 G. Khaskheli, and A.S. Qureshi. Department of
Civil Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and
Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan.
Written discussion of this article is welcomed and will be
received by the Editor until 30 September 2008.
1Corresponding author (e-mail: memon_rizwan@yahoo.com).
countries (Qureshi 1998). According to the same study, the
main cause for the decline in fatality rate is the adoption of
safety-conscious approaches in the design and planning of
new road networks.
In Pakistan, 9377 accidents on the highway network in
2002 claimed 15 456 lives (Federal Bureau of Statistics
2003).
One of the main reasons for accidents is lack of geometric
design consistency, defined as ‘‘the degree to which high-
way systems are designed to avoid critical driving maneuver
and ensure safe traffic operation’’ (Al-Masaeid et al. 1994;
Hassan et al. 2001).
Due to this lack of consistency, the large number of acci-
dents occurring are head-on collisions, rear-end collisions,
and run-off accidents. The designers must maintain design
consistency along the roadway alignment to prevent abrupt
changes in geometry that do not match motorists’ expecta-
tions (Christopher 1999).
Recent research in highway geometric design has diverted
researchers attention to the investigation of actual driver
speed (operating speed). The actual-speed profile has been

Can. J. Civ. Eng. 35: 443–453 (2008) doi:10.1139/L07-126 # 2008 NRC Canada
444
used as a basic tool for the determination of individual road
element values for achieving consistency in horizontal align-
ment (Lamm and Choueiri 1987; Kanellaidis et al. 1990).
Previous studies assumed that drivers reach their maxi-
mum speed at the middle of the tangent and minimum speed
at the middle point of the curve because traditional data-
collection methods could only measure speed at a few
selected locations along the roadway. In this study, the
continuous tracking of vehicles along with maintaining a
continuous speed profile make it possible to measure the
true operating speed along the selected test section and to
collect detailed information on driver behavior, such as
speed variation, maximum speed, and minimum speed.
A vehicle was equipped with a VBox [Racelogic
Company Ltd., UK; a global positioning system (GPS)
based device] to collect continuous speed data on different
sections of roadway. The speed database included 116 hori-
zontal curves along two-lane rural roads, N-25 and N-55, in
two provinces of Pakistan. Speed data were collected in both
directions of traffic flow. Operating speed prediction models
were developed for horizontal curves and tangents.
Road elements
The safe and efficient movement of traffic is generally
influenced by geometric elements of the highway.
Oppenlander (1966) found that the road elements with the
most significant influence on observed operating speed in-
clude horizontal curvature, functional classification, vertical
gradient, pavement surface, and road width. Gibreel et al.
(1999) found that several parameters representing combined
highway alignments significantly affect the prediction of the
85th percentile operating speed, namely the radius of the
horizontal curve, the length of vertical curve, gradient,
algebraic difference in grades, and superelevation rate.
Drivers may have a different assessment of the combined
roadway alignment than that of the designer. Geometric
design standards or guidelines specify approximate
minimum, maximum, and desirable values for visible road
elements. Currently most standards do not require a consis-
tent rural highway design. The closest requirement is the
American Association of State Highway and Transportation
Officials policy (AASHTO 2004), which suggests that the
ratio of the flatter radius to the sharper radius for compound
curves should not exceed 2:1.
Design-speed concept
Speed is one of the major parameters in geometric design.
It is used both as a design criterion to promote consistency
and as a performance measure to evaluate how a street or
highway operates once it is opened to traffic. A policy on
geometric design of highways and streets (AASHTO 2004)
provides the following definition of the design speed ‘‘A
selected speed used to determine the various geometric
design features of the roadway’’. With respect to the
selection of appropriate design speed, AASHTO states that
‘‘the assumed design speed should be a logical one with
respect to the topography, anticipated operating speed, the
adjacent land use, and functional classification of the high-
way; and, once selected, all the pertinent features of the
highway should be related to the design speed.’’
The application of this definition of design speed has
Can. J. Civ. Eng. Vol. 35, 2008
resulted in a design practice referred to as the design-speed
concept. A great number of geometric design researchers
and practitioners have recognized that the design-speed
concept, as applied in the US, cannot guarantee consistent
alignment. Several European countries have therefore re-
vised their design practices and adopted an alternative prac-
tice referred to as the operating-speed concept (Krammes
2000).
Operating speed
Field observations have shown that drivers adopt an oper-
ating speed that is dependent on the road features rather than
on the posted speed (Fitzpatrick et al. 1997). The 85th
percentile of samples of observed speeds is the general sta-
tistic used to describe operating speeds based on geometric
features.
Operating speed is the speed at or below which 85% of
drivers are operating their vehicles (Fitzpatrick et al. 1999).
Operating speed is also defined as ‘‘the speed selected by
the highway users when not restricted by the other users,’’
[i.e. under free flow conditions (Poe et al. 1996)].
The AASHTO defines operating speed as ‘‘the speed at
which drivers are observed operating their vehicles under
free flow conditions’’ (AASHTO 2004).
Disparity between design speed and operating speed
The disparity between design speed and operating speed
is an indication of inconsistency at a single road element.
The empirical evidence of the disparity between design
speed and operating speed has been documented by many
researchers. McLean (1979) observed that horizontal curves
with design speeds of less than 90 km/h had 85th percentile
speeds consistently higher than the design speeds, and hori-
zontal curves with design speeds greater than 90 km/h had
85th percentile speeds consistently lower than the design
speeds. Chowdhury et al. (1991) and Krammes et al. (1995)
found that the 85th percentile speeds were consistently
higher than the design speeds on horizontal curves with
design speeds less than the 80 km/h and consistently lower
than the design speeds on horizontal curves with design
speeds greater than 100 km/h. Fitzpatrick et al. (1997) found
that the 85th percentile speeds were less than the inferred
design speed for all curves with design speeds greater than
90 km/h and greater than the inferred design speed for the
majority of curves with design speeds less than 90 km/h.
These studies demonstrate that the design-speed approach
does not always result in operating speed consistent with
the intended speeds and functions of the roadway.
The majority of roads in Pakistan consist of two-lane,
two-way roads and were designed for speeds at or below
90 km/h. Hence, there is a dire need for developing operat-
ing-speed models based on local conditions, and incorpo-
rated in design standards that can be valid for Pakistan.
Previous operating speed prediction models
Many researchers have developed similar models using
different data collection devices for the estimation of 85th
percentile speed on two-lane rural roads on horizontal
curves and on tangents for a variety of speed limits, vertical
grades, and vehicle types.
# 2008 NRC Canada
Memon et al.
Krammes et al. (1995) tried to establish speed prediction
models for the curves using spot speed data of passenger
cars for 284 sites (50–100 observations per site). The speed
data were collected using a radio detecting and ranging
(radar) gun. These models were later improvedon in 1997
and used in the ‘‘design consistency module’’ of the interac-
tive highway safety design model (IHSDM) (Krammes
1997). A value of 97.9 km/h was introduced as the mean of
the 85th percentile speeds on the tangents.
Fitzpatrick et al. (1999) developed speed prediction
models for passenger cars taking into consideration the
effect of three-dimensional alignments. The speed database
included 176 sites in six states in the US. The equipment
used for data collection consisted of a radar gun, a light
detecting and ranging (lidar) gun, and counters–classifiers
using on-pavement piezoelectric sensors.
Crisman et al. (2004) also developed a model for predic-
tion of operating speed on curves and tangents. They found
that the use of environmental speed for prediction of operat-
ing speed on curves enabled prediction of driver behaviour
more effectively. The equation for tangent speed involves
tangent length and the operating speed of the preceding
curve.
Misaghi and Hassan (2005) tried to establish a prediction
equation to address operating speed consistency evaluation
in Canada. Speed data were collected using traffic counters
–classifiers on 20 curves on two-lane rural highways in
Ontario.
A summary of previous developed operating speed predic-
tion models is presented in Table 1.
As for data collection equipment and procedures, almost
all the developed models have some shortcomings such as:
(1) Most of the models developed in earlier studies are
based on spot-speed data collected at specified locations.
(2) In most of the studies, the speed measurement has been
made using a radar or lidar gun, both of which have
some degree of inaccuracy because the reading angle is
different from zero. It is also observed that the equip-
ment is quite visible to drivers; and hence, drivers may
reduce speed and the speed obtained may be lower than
normal.
(3) In the case of measurements made by counters–classifiers
or the use of sensors, the data may require screening
for a number of reasons, such as missing sensors, non-
free flow data, and altered driving behavior due to the
presence of the traffic data collection crew in traffic
vests.
Selection of study test sections
Test sections were selected in such a manner that the
maximum number of parameters of study could be ascer-
tained, such as different combined element types and differ-
ent road conditions. Curve and tangent sites were selected
on the basis of following criteria: (i) no intersection being
adjacent to these sites; (ii) no physical features being
adjacent that may create a hindrance to operating conditions;
(iii) grades less than 5%; and (iv) good pavement condition.
A preliminary survey was conducted along different two-
lane rural roads to locate the sections in compliance with the
445
aforementioned criteria. Eleven test sections were selected
along two different two-lane rural roads passing through
different topography (i.e., N-25 in hilly terrain and N-55 on
rolling terrain in two provinces of Pakistan). A total of 116
horizontal curves with varying geometric characteristics
(e.g., different radii, lengths, and grades) were studied in
each direction of traffic flow. The as-built alignment data of
the selected test sections were collected from concerned
National Highway Authority (NHA) officials.
The N-25 alignment consisted of test sections with a
variety of combinations of elements and a continuously up-
ward or downward vertical profile of less than 5%. Some
of the sections contained curves of radii >400 m followed
by long tangents, and some contained series of curves of
radii <200 m followed by short tangents. A few sections
were also found to have sharp curves of radius <100 m
after a long tangent of length greater than 250 m or a
curve of more than five times the radius.
On the other hand, the test sections along N-55 consisted
of curves with greater radius meeting with curves of com-
paratively shorter radius and longer length. Similarly, test
sections containing a series of curves of radius >300 m
followed by a short tangent were also found. The summary
of available geometric design data of the test sections is pre-
sented in Table 2, whereas Fig. 1 shows the plan of test sec-
tion 5 of (N-25) and test section 2 of (N-55).
Data collection
One of the main objectives of this study was to collect
continuous observed speed data along the selected test sec-
tions. A vehicle equipped with a VBox, a GPS-based device,
was used to collect speed data. The VBox measures the
Doppler shift in the carrier signal coming from a number of
GPS satellites and calculates the velocity of the vehicle to
an accuracy of 0.1%. Using this method, the accurate velo-
city data were calculated at a rate of 20 times/s, and the
VBox datalogs the speed data.
Start and end points of the study sections were marked on
the road. A trigger device was used to start or stop the data
collection process, for the selected test sections. Each VBox
data sheet was obtained in Microsoft Excel format for every
test drive. The sheet contained information about the dis-
tance traveled and other required information, such as corre-
sponding speed, acceleration, radius at approximately 1 m
intervals. The data files were also obtained in typical format
as shown in Fig. 2. A comparison was made between the
distances recorded by the VBox and the measured test-
section length, and gave a variation of within 0.5%. The
data collected through the VBox enable the traffic engineer
to obtain the speed profile of the vehicle, the layout of the
roadway sections traversed, the acceleration and deceleration
profile of the vehicle, the vertical alignment profiles, and
much more.
Data collection was carried out on 11 selected test sec-
tions during the daytime, under free traffic flow and good
weather conditions. Data were collected in both directions
of traffic flow using two different methods: (i) test driver
method, in which approximately 30 selected test drivers
were directed to drive the test vehicle along test section in
each direction of traffic flow; and (ii) car following method,
# 2008 NRC Canada
446 Can. J. Civ. Eng. Vol. 35, 2008

Table 1. Summary of previous developed operating speed prediction models.

Site Source Location Model developed R2 Remarks

1 Taragin 1954 US V85 ¼ 88:87
2554:76=R 0.86 35 curves
2 McLean 1979 Australia V85 ¼ 53:80 þ 0:464Vf
3260=R þ 85000=R2 0.92 120 curves
3 Lamm and V85 ¼ 94:398
3188:656=R 0.79 261 curves
Choueiri 1987
pffiffiffi
4 Kanellaidis et Greece V85 ¼ 129:88
623:1= R 0.78 58 curves
al. 1990
5 Otteson and V85 ¼ 103:04
0:0477CCR 0.80 138 curves
Krammes 1994
6 Morrall and V85 ¼ eð4:561
0:00586DCÞ 0.63 9 curves
Talarico 1994
7 Islam and Northeastern V85 ¼ 95:41
1:48D
0:012 D2 0.99 08 curves, at PC
Seneviratne 1994 Utah V85 ¼ 103:03
2:41D
0:029 D2 0.98 At MC
V85 ¼ 96:11
1:07 D 0.98 At PT
8 Krammes et Texas V85 ¼ 102:40
1:57D þ 0:012Lc
0:10
0.82 138 curves
al. 1995
9 McFadden and V85 ¼ 41:62
1:29D þ 0:0049Lc
12
þ 0:95 Vt 0.90 78 curves
Elefteriadou 1997 V85 ¼ 106:3
ð3595:29=RÞ 0.92
10 Fitzpatrick et V85T ¼ 100:69
ð3032=RÞ þ 27:819Lt 0.79 58 curves
al. 1999
11 McFadden and 85 MSR ¼
14:9 þ 0:144V85T ð954:55=RÞ þ 0:0153Lt 0.712
Elefteriadou 2000
12 Crisman et al. 2004 Gorizia, Italy V85c ¼ 48:447
4995:01=R þ 163893:24=R2 þ 0:5598Venv 0.88 39 curves
13 Misaghi and Ontario V85MC ¼ 94:30 þ 8:67  10
6 R2 0.52 20 curves
Hassan 2005
Note: MC, midpoint of curve; PC, point of curve; PT, point of tangent.

Table 2. Details of selected test sections. based on free flow conditions, as mentioned earlier in this
paper. The data was also collected during off-peak times.
Alignment N-25 N-55
All data files of whole test sections in which driver’s
No. of test sections 6 5
speed behaviour was affected by factors other than the geo-
Total length of test sections (km) 36 43
metric characteristics of the road (e.g., overtaking, animal
Total No. of curves 66 50
crossing, unusual driving attitude) were discarded immedi-
Radius of horizontal curve, R (m) 75–9000 220–7000
ately at the site, and free flow conditions were ensured by
Deflection angle, I (8) 1–80 2–95
repeating the test drive.
Rate of superelevation, e (%) 2–8 3–9.8
Length of horizontal curve, Lc (m) 23–860 140–460
Gradient, G (%) +5 to –5 +3 to –3
Analysis of variance test
Approach tangent length, Lt (m) 3–1690 3–2150 As the data for each test section were obtained by test
Design speed (km/h) 90 90 driver method as well as car following method, the analysis
Width of carriageway, W (m) 7.3 7.3 of variance (ANOVA) test was conducted by comparing the
means of observed speeds, using the Minitab release 13.3
statistical software (Minitab Inc., State College, Pa.). On
average, 70% of all the observed data showed no statisti-
in which approximately 30 passenger vehicles were ran- cally significant difference at 95% confidence interval (CI)
domly followed along every test section in each direction of between the operating speeds measured by the test driver
traffic flow method and those measured by the car following method.
The data files were produced in typical format by the On the basis of these results, it was decided to combine the
VBox for each test drive on selected test sections in each speed data from both methods and develop a single model.
direction of traffic flow. Figure 2 is presenting a sample of
the data file and plan produced by VBox for a test drive on Analysis of driver behavior (while approaching a curve
section 424–432 of N-25. All data files were retrieved in and on the curve itself)
Excel format containing information about distance, speed, Generally, it was observed that along all the test sections
radii, acceleration and deceleration rates, and elevations. drivers kept their operating speed above the design speed,
except at locations where radius of the horizontal curve
Data analysis was £250 m. Availability of continuous observed speed data
along the selected test sections makes it possible to analyze
Data screening driver behavior while approaching the curve and on the
In this study, the speed data were collected by a test individual curve itself. Individual curve and tangent profiles
vehicle equipped with VBox. The test sections were selected were plotted for all the curves along study test sections.
# 2008 NRC Canada
Memon et al. 447

Fig. 1. Plan showing combination of curves along two test sections.

Fig. 2. VBox data file and plan (path traversed by the vehicle as plotted by VBox) of the test section N-25 (424–432) C3. Numbers shown
below Plan represent the longitude (in m) from the starting point (0). Lat acc, lateral acceleration; Long acc, longitudinal acceleration.

# 2008 NRC Canada

448 Can. J. Civ. Eng. Vol. 35, 2008

Fig. 3. Profiles showing driver behaviour on a curve and tangent observed in this study. Refer to text for description of each part of the
figure. MC, midpoint of curve; PC, point of curve; PT, point of tangent.

In this study, the continuous observed speed data indi- also by the approaching speed and hence by the geometric
cated that the driver’s choice of speed is mostly affected features of the road that immediately preceded.
not only by the geometric features of the road section, but The individual curve profile analysis reveals that (i) dri-
# 2008 NRC Canada
Memon et al. 449

4.42

4.56

4.20

4.11

4.11

4.18
vers generally decelerate when approaching a curve and

se
reach their minimum speed at the midpoint of curve or close
to it, and accelerate through the rest of the curve, as shown

RMSER
in Figs. 3a and 3b; (ii) drivers tend to increase their speed

0.440

0.457

0.418

0.410

0.410

0.417
continuously after attaining a very low speed on sharp
curves like hairpin bends, as shown in Fig. 3c; and (iii) dri-
vers tend to decrease their speed continuously while obser-

0.83

0.85

0.84

0.84

0.84

0.86
R2
ving or perceiving an obstruction ahead, such as the
presence of combined horizontal and crest-vertical curves as

405

316

280

220

220

209
shown in Fig. 3d.

F
The individual tangent profile reveals that drivers reach
their maximum speed at different locations along the tangent
depending on the geometry of the preceding and succeeding
curve, and the length of tangent itself, as shown in Figs. 3e

ð
5:18Þ
1:20G1
and 3f.
Keeping in view the analysis of individual profiles obtain-
ed in this study, a speed prediction model was developed for

0:160I

horizontal curves by considering the 85th percentile of speed
observed at the middle of curves. In addition to this, a speed

ð
3:61Þ
ð
3:40Þ
ð
3:40Þ
0:163I
0:163I
prediction model was developed for tangents by considering
a maximum of the 85th percentile speed observed on ap-
proach tangents.

0:983D þ 0:598ðMax:V85T Þ þ 0:0228Lc

0:908 D þ 0:613ðMax:V85T Þ þ 0:0244Lc

1571=R þ 0:613ðMax:V85T Þ þ 0:0244Lc

2551=R þ 0:616 ðMax:V85T Þ
0:309 CCR
þ 0:589ðMax:V85T Þ
1:19 G1
ð
4:95Þ

ð
2:41Þ
Statistical analysis

ð2:53Þ
ð2:52Þ
ð2:52Þ
A descriptive statistical analysis was carried out for the
speed observations using Minitab. In this study, models
were developed to predict speed on a curve by taking into
þ 0:606ðMax:V85T Þ
consideration the data at midcurve and the maximum of the
85th percentile speed on the approach tangent for prediction
of speed on the approach tangent.
ð16:18Þ

Descriptive statistical analysis was carried out for the ð16:74Þ

ð16:58Þ

ð17:40Þ
ð16:63Þ
ð16:63Þ
speed observations at midcurve and for the maximum of the
85th percentile speed on the approach tangent for different
radii and lengths of curves of the sections. The analysis

*Values in parentheses are the t-test values for the coefficient shown directly above.
includes mean, standard deviation, 85th percentile, and co-
ð
13:91Þ

ð
15:33Þ
2983=R

ð
9:20Þ

ð
3:99Þ
3097=R

ð
3:43Þ

ð
3:43Þ
efficient of variation and was conducted at the 95% CI.

Development of speed prediction models

Regression equation*

ð10:57Þ

Model for predicting speed on a horizontal curve

ð11:79Þ

ð10:52Þ

ð10:65Þ
Table 3. Initially selected operating speed prediction models.

ð9:41Þ

ð9:41Þ
V85MC ¼ 44:7

V85MC ¼ 46:9

V85MC ¼ 44:0

V85MC ¼ 40:4

V85MC ¼ 40:4

V85MC ¼ 42:8

To develop a model for predicting the vehicle operating

speed on a horizontal curve, the 85th percentile speed on
the midcurve (dependent variable) was determined. Analysis
of the existing data revealed that the observed 85th per-
centile speed on curve is mostly influenced by the maximum
speed attained by a driver on approach tangent. Therefore,
in this study, it was decided to include the maximum of the
V85MC on D, Max.V85T, Lc, I, G1

85th percentile speed on the approach tangent (Max.V85T) as

V85MC on 1/R, Max.V85T, CCR

V85MC on 1/R,Max.V85T, Lc, I

V85MC on D, Max.V85T, Lc, I

V85MC on 1/R, Max.V85T, G1

an independent variable in model development.

Other independent variables used in this study for the
V85MC on 1/R, Max.V85T

model development were, radius of horizontal curve (R), the

Regression analysis

length of the curve (Lc), the deflection angle (I), the maxi-
mum 85th percentile lateral acceleration (ao85), the gradient
(G), and the curvature change rate (CCR).
In addition, some transformations of the aforementioned
variables were used in the modeling. A file was prepared
containing data of dependent variables like V85MC and
Max.V85T and also the data of independent variables used in
the model development. The regression analysis was carried
Site
No.

out using Minitab release 13.3. The analysis was based on a

1

# 2008 NRC Canada

450
Fig. 4. Comparison the results from model developed in this study and with those from previous research. V85MCobs and V85MCpre, observed
and predicted values of V85MC, respectively.
5% significance level. From the collected 85th percentile
speed data at midcurves (V85MC), about 232 data points
were included in the database, from which 80% of the data
were used for model development and 20% was used for
model validation.
Statistical analysis reveals that the explanatory power of
the model increases when two or more than two independent
variables are used. The t test indicated that the independent
variables 1/k (inverse of rate of vertical curvature) and ao85
(maximum 85th percentile lateral acceleration) were not
significant. Among the 15 models developed, six models
were selected based on high R2, F, and t values and all the
variables in the model were statistically significant, where
R2 is the coefficient of determination.
To select the most reliable model for prediction of operating
speed, cross validations of the developed regression models
for the alignments (N-25 and N-55) were carried out. A dataset
(with 20% experimental data remaining for model validation)
was used to compare the estimated V85MC values with the ac-
tual values. The root mean square error relative (RMSER)
and standard error of the estimate (se) for all preliminary se-
lected models were then calculated. Table 3 presents the ini-
tially selected models and values from the statistical analysis.
The model giving the lowest values of RMSER and se was
recommended for prediction of V85MC on horizontal curves.
The model recommended in this study, and found to satisfac-
torily explain the experimental data, is the following:
½1 V85MC ¼ 40:4
1571 =R þ 0:613 ðMax:V85T Þ
þ 0:0244 Lc
0:163 I
ðR2 ¼ 0:84Þ
where Lc is the length of the curve.
Figure 4 shows a graphical comparison of observed V85MC
for 42 sites and V85MC values predicted by the model devel-
oped in this study and by other researchers, (i.e., Lamm et
al. 1990, Kanellaidis et al. 1990, McFadden and Elefteriadou
1997 and Krammes et al. 1995) using the data remaining for
validation.
The comparison shows that the developed model is com-
patible with the trend of the experimental data giving an se
Can. J. Civ. Eng. Vol. 35, 2008
value of 4.11 km/h. Whereas, the comparison of models by
Kanellaidis et al. (1990), Krammes et al. (1995), Lamm et al.
(1990) and McFadden and Elefteriadou (1997) with the exper-
imental data give se values of 6.4, 10.6, 18.45, and 33.14 km/h,
respectively. The comparison of models developed by these
researchers with the model developed in this study gives se
values of 5.7, 9.5, 17.2, and 33.96 km/h, respectively.
Model for predicting speed on tangents
In this study, the maximum 85th percentile speed on
approaching tangents (Max.V85T) was used as an indepen-
dent variable for predicting V85MC on horizontal curve, and
therefore, the observed maximum 85th percentile speed on
every approach tangent, irrespective of length, was used to
develop a model for predicting Max.V85T. Efforts were
made to establish the relationship between road geometry
and observed speeds on approach tangent (Max.V85T). A
data file was prepared containing observed Max.V85T data
as a dependent variable, and different geometric parameters
and their transformation, are being used as independent var-
iables in regression analysis.
Experimental data show that the speed on the approaching
tangent mostly depends on the length of the approaching
tangent and the radii of preceding and succeeding curves.
The average gradient of the tangent also affects the speed.
Regression analyses were also carried out to find a possi-
ble relationship between the Max.V85T and independent vari-
ables. From the collected Max. V85T data, 160 data points
were included in the database, of which 80% were used in
model development and 20% for model validation. The
analysis is based on 0.05 significance level (
) using Mini-
tab release 13.30. Regression equations have been developed
using available independent variables such as; tangent length
(Lt), average gradient of the tangent (G), radius of the pre-
ceding curve (R1), radius of the succeeding curve (R2), and
their transforms.
In this study, the maximum tangent length used in the
model for maximum V85T is 1600 m.
Among the 14 models developed, 11 models were selec-
ted based on comparatively high values of the coefficient of
determination. Further analysis was carried out of the selec-
# 2008 NRC Canada
Memon et al. 451

6.35
ted models to recommend a suitable model for predicting of

7.0

7.2

7.6

5.0

5.8

6.2

6.2
se
operating speed on an approach tangent on two-lane two-
way roads in Pakistan.

RMSER
A process similar to that followed in validation of models

0.65

0.68

0.72

0.47

0.55

0.57

0.58

0.60
on horizontal curves. A dataset (20% of experimental data
remaining for model validation) was used to compare the
estimated operating speed values on an approach tangent

0.64

0.68

0.66

0.62

0.64

0.68

0.72

0.70
with the actual values. The RMSER and se for all prelim-

R2
inary selected models were then calculated. Table 4 presents
initially selected models and the values from the statistical
analysis values.

913

109

100

85

93

83

98

89
F
The model giving the lowest values of RMSER and se
was recommended for the prediction of maximum V85 on
tangents. The model recommended in this study, which was
found to satisfactorily explain the existing experimental

ð
5:28Þ
value is as follows:

272= R1
129= R2
1:98G

2667=R1
1180=R2

2373=R1
1100=R2
ð
4:69Þ

ð
4:65Þ
½2 Max:V85T ¼ 111 þ 0:0110 Lt
2757=R1
1225=R2
ðR2 ¼ 0:615Þ

pffiffiffiffiffi

pffiffiffiffiffi
277= R1
140= R2
Figure 5 shows a graphical comparison of the observed

2757 =R1
1225=R2

ð
5:32Þ

ð
4:44Þ
ð
4:47Þ

ð
10:85Þ
ð
5:29Þ

ð
4:4Þ
295= R1
2:11G
ð
5:6Þ

ð
9:89Þ
2576=R1
2:16G
2874=R1
2:16G
Max.V85T for 35 sites and Max.V85T values predicted by the
models recommended in this study, giving a se value of
5 km/h. Figure 5 also presents a comparison between the
model developed in this study and the models and standard

pffiffiffiffiffi

pffiffiffiffiffi

pffiffiffiffiffi
ð
10:25Þ

ð
10:32Þ
ð
11:16Þ
values recommended by other researchers (i.e., Lamm and

ð
9:53Þ

ð
8:58Þ

ð
5:70Þ

ð
9:13Þ
ð
5:48Þ
2:06G
2:10G
Choueiri 1987; Krammes et al. 1995; Polus and Dagan
2000; Hassan et al. 2000), using the same data remaining
for validation. 0:670 Lt

0:680 Lt

0:579 Lt

0:602 Lt

0:612 Lt

0:0110 Lt

0:0118 Lt

0:0134Lt

The model developed by Polus and Dagan (2000) shows a

pffiffiffiffi

pffiffiffiffi

pffiffiffiffi

pffiffiffiffi

pffiffiffiffi
similar trend similar to that of the model developed in this
ð10:89Þ

ð10:76Þ

ð10:13Þ
ð8:93Þ

ð8:71Þ

ð8:16Þ

ð9:98Þ
study, but the Polus and Dagan model underestimated the
ð7:0Þ
values. The standard values of operating speed (desired
speed) on a tangent, as recommended by other researchers,
þ

*Values in parentheses are the t-test values for the coefficient shown directly above.
were also underestimated.
ð88:83Þ

ð62:76Þ

ð47:74Þ

ð75:71Þ

ð41:13Þ

ð81:87Þ

ð60:73Þ

ð43:88Þ
Regression equation*

Max:V85T ¼ 99:2
Max:V85T ¼ 107

Max:V85T ¼ 106

Max:V85T ¼ 111

Max:V85T ¼ 114

Max:V85T ¼ 110

Max:V85T ¼ 103

Max:V85T ¼ 113
Conclusions
Based on the collected continuous observed speed data
using a vehicle equipped with a VBox (a GPS-based
Table 4. Initially selected speed prediction models for tangent.

device), this paper presented the driver’s choice of speed

trend on horizontal curves and approach tangents on two
different road alignments in Pakistan. Speed prediction mod-
els were developed for horizontal curves and for tangents
using the collected observed speed data. The conclusions
are as follows:
pffiffiffiffiffi pffiffiffiffiffi
Lt , G, 1/ R1 , 1/ R2
pffiffiffiffi pffiffiffiffiffi pffiffiffiffiffi
on Lt , 1/ R1 , 1/ R2

Lt , G, 1/R1, 1/R2

(1) The continuous observed speed data – speed profile

Max.V85T on Lt, G, 1/R1, 1/R2
Lt , 1/ R1 , G

make it possible to measure true operating speed along

Max.V85T on Lt, 1/R1, 1/R2
Max.V85T on Lt , 1/R1, G
pffiffiffiffi pffiffiffiffiffi

the selected test section and detailed information on dri-

Max.V85T on Lt, 1/R1, G

ver behavior such as speed variation and maximum and

Regression analysis

minimum speed.
pffiffiffiffi

pffiffiffiffi
pffiffiffiffi

(2) The speed profiles show greater variation in the design

Max.V85T on

Max.V85T on

Max.V85T on

speed (calculated as per the AASHTO design guide) and

Max.V85T

the operating speed on the majority of curved sections

studied, which emphasizes the determination of indi-
vidual geometric elements based on operating speed
parameters rather than on the design speed.
(3) Speed profile data revealed that drivers reach their mini-
Site
No.
1

mum speed at or near the mid point of curves, and

# 2008 NRC Canada
452
Fig. 5. Comparison of results from the model developed in this study with those from previous research. V85Tobs and V85Tpre, observed and
predicted values of V85T, respectively.
attained the maximum speed at a different location on a
tangent.
(4) The results in this study indicated that the operating
speed on horizontal curves is strongly related to the
maximum 85th percentile approach the tangent speed
and the inverse of the radius of the curve.
(5) The developed model for predicting tangent speed was
also found to be highly correlated to preceding and suc-
ceeding curve geometry and the length of the tangent.
(6) The validation of the developed models shows the com-
patibility with the trend of the experimental data; how-
ever, greater variation was found between the developed
model and the models developed in various countries by
other researchers.
(7) Further research is required to estimate deceleration and
acceleration behaviour and the driver’s desired speed for
the development of a speed profile model to check
design consistency of two-lane rural roads in Pakistan.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the Higher Education Com-
mission (HEC), Islamabad, Pakistan, for providing financial
support for this project. Thanks are extended to Department
of Civil Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and
Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan, for providing various
facilities. Thanks are also extended to the National Highway
Authority for providing information on road geometry for
the selected test sections.
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