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Fundamentals of Climate Modelling

Torben Königk

Rossby Centre/ SMHI


Outline

Introduction
Why do we need models?

Basic processes
Radiation
Atmospheric/Oceanic circulation

Model basics
Resolution
Parameterizations
Limitations
Why do we need models?

Weather forecast
What will the weather be in Norrköping tomorrow?
What activities shall we plan for the weekend?
Why do we need models?

Climate analysis
How large is the natural variability?
Mechanisms of climate processes?
Why do we need models?

Climate scenarios
How will the climate be in Norrköping in 30 years?
Do we will have more extremes?
How is sea level changing?

Simulated temperature
change until 2090-2099
The Climate System : What do we need to include?
Radiation: Black body radiation

 A black body absorbs all


incident radiation
 A blackbody emits radiation
according to Planck’s law
(shape of curves)
 Wien’s displacement law give
the temperature of a radiation
source (maximum of curves)
 Total flux given by the
Stefan-Boltzmann law
(integration over the curve)

wavelength [µm]
Longwave radiation of the Earth

Emitted radiation at the Earth’s surface 4-100µm (maximum at around


10µm)

CO2 and O3 absorb at wavelengths within the Earth’s emission spectrum. Increases
in their concentration will increase the natural greenhouse effect and warm the
planet. Water Vapour is the most active abosrbing gas in the IR spectrum.
Solar radiation

 Absorption of incoming solar


radiation small Properties of the Albedo (%)
ground
 Incoming radiation may be
reflected by clouds, particles or Snow 75-95
by the ground Old snow 50-70
 The albedo (A) is the ratio
Ice 50-80
between reflected and
incoming radiation Sand 20-40
 Cloud albedo varies (30-90%) Grass 10-20
 Global average ca 30%
Forest 5-20
(including clouds)
Water 3-10
Water (Sun close to 10-100
horizon)
Radiation balance of the Earth

 Assume balance between


outgoing and incoming radiation
on long term basis

Solar constant 1368 W m-2


planetary albedo 30%
Outgoing terrestrial radiation (longwave) is absorbed and reemitted in
the atmosphere.
The net effect is a warming of the surface (Te = 288 K)
Radiation Balance, Differential Heating

 Imbalances leads to temperature differences and thereby pressure gradients


generating the general circulation of the atmosphere (and the oceans)
 Long term imbalance leads to climate change
Atmospheric motion

 Air is under influence of a number of forces resulting in


movements (winds and turbulence)
 The forces are; the pressure gradient force, gravity,
friction, centrifugal forces and the Coriolis force,

The Coriolis force is an apparent force


that leads to a deflection to the right (left)
of all motion in the northern (southern)
hemisphere

It is proportional to the speed and


depends on latitude (increasing towards
the poles)
Atmospheric Circulation

No rotation of the Earth

cooling

heating

cooing

Conservation of absolute angular momemtum and the stability of fluid flows


leads to the break up of a thermally direct circulation around 30°poleward of
the equator. Here the atmosphere develops instabilities (extra-tropical cyclones)
that efficiently transport energy and momentum poleward.
Large scale ocean circulation
The ocean circulation is driven by density contrasts in the ocean.
Regions of intense heat loss from the ocean, surface winds and salinity of
the ocean (sea ice melt, runoff, precipitation) govern the circulation.
The continents play an important role.
Equations describing the atmosphere

∂u r ∂u ∂φ r ∂ω
+ V ⋅ ∇u + ω − fv + = FX ∇ ⋅V + =0
∂t ∂p ∂x ∂p
∂v r ∂v ∂φ pα = RT
+ V ⋅ ∇v + ω + fu + = Fy
∂t ∂p ∂y
∂φ ∂q r ∂q
= −α + V ⋅ ∇q ⋅ +ω = Sq
∂p ∂t ∂p
∂T r ∂T
+ V ⋅ ∇T + ω − αω / Cp = Q / Cp
∂t ∂p
• The atmosphere is governed by a set of physical laws expressing how the air moves,
heating and cooling, moisture, and so on.

• Although the equations describing atmospheric behaviour can be formulated,


they cannot be solved analytically. Instead, numerical methods are needed to
provide approximate solutions.
A global climate model (model describing the
general circulation - GCM)

 In a GCM grid boxes cover


the entire planet (ocean and
atmosphere)
 Typical size is 100-200 km in
the horizontal
 40-60 Iayers in the vertical
both in atmosphere and
ocean
 Typical time step can be 30
min
Climate Model

 The information needed to run a GCM (atmosphere and


ocean) is:
Initial state of all the variables in all boxes
A description of the land surface (topography and land use)
Solar radiation
Gas and aerosol composition of the atmosphere

 The resources needed to run a GCM (atmosphere and ocean)


are:
Super computer (many processors & 100 TB disk)
Takes 2 weeks for 100 years simulation
Space and time scales
Typical timescales of variation in the climate system.
Atmosphere (seconds to weeks)
Surface vegetation (weeks to years)
Surface snow and sea-ice (days to years)
Upper Ocean (days to years) Deep Ocean (months to multi-century)
Glaciers (years to multi-century)
Continental distribution and mountain building
(100s to 1000s of thousand years)
Parametrized processes in a climate
model

Sea ice
processes Mixing
Deep
Convection Eddies
The Development of Climate models

Mid-1970s Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Early 2000s Late 2000s

Source: IPCC, TAR, 2001


Initialization/ chaotic behaviour

 NWP integrations started from


very similar initial conditions
may result in quite different
forecasts
 Simulations with climate
models can never be directly
compared to observations:
 Never compare a single month
or year from a model
simulations to the
corresponding year in reality!
 Compare statistics of a longer
period (decades or more)!
Summary

 Climate models are an important tool to investigate past, present


and future climates.
 Differential heating of the Earth causes atmospheric and oceanic
circulation.
 Clouds, gases and particles are important for radiation balance.
 Main uncertainties of climate models are connected to low resolution
and the need to parametrize small-scale processes.
 Climate is the statistics of weather.

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