Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Torben Königk
Introduction
Why do we need models?
Basic processes
Radiation
Atmospheric/Oceanic circulation
Model basics
Resolution
Parameterizations
Limitations
Why do we need models?
Weather forecast
What will the weather be in Norrköping tomorrow?
What activities shall we plan for the weekend?
Why do we need models?
Climate analysis
How large is the natural variability?
Mechanisms of climate processes?
Why do we need models?
Climate scenarios
How will the climate be in Norrköping in 30 years?
Do we will have more extremes?
How is sea level changing?
Simulated temperature
change until 2090-2099
The Climate System : What do we need to include?
Radiation: Black body radiation
wavelength [µm]
Longwave radiation of the Earth
CO2 and O3 absorb at wavelengths within the Earth’s emission spectrum. Increases
in their concentration will increase the natural greenhouse effect and warm the
planet. Water Vapour is the most active abosrbing gas in the IR spectrum.
Solar radiation
cooling
heating
cooing
∂u r ∂u ∂φ r ∂ω
+ V ⋅ ∇u + ω − fv + = FX ∇ ⋅V + =0
∂t ∂p ∂x ∂p
∂v r ∂v ∂φ pα = RT
+ V ⋅ ∇v + ω + fu + = Fy
∂t ∂p ∂y
∂φ ∂q r ∂q
= −α + V ⋅ ∇q ⋅ +ω = Sq
∂p ∂t ∂p
∂T r ∂T
+ V ⋅ ∇T + ω − αω / Cp = Q / Cp
∂t ∂p
• The atmosphere is governed by a set of physical laws expressing how the air moves,
heating and cooling, moisture, and so on.
Sea ice
processes Mixing
Deep
Convection Eddies
The Development of Climate models
Mid-1970s Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Early 2000s Late 2000s