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ABSTRACT
174°E 176°E 178°E
Robust regional seismic-hazard assessments require millennial-
scale paleoseismic histories that extend far beyond the range of his-
torical and instrumental data. However, it is difficult to resolve the
38°S
probability density functions for earthquake recurrence from the lim-
ited number of major to great earthquakes most paleoseismic records
contain. Lake sediment records are repositories of information about W
Taupo
paleoearthquake recurrence, with a sensitivity and fidelity over mil- Volcanic
lennial time scales that suggest that they have the potential to yield Zone
reliable estimates of the recurrence distribution. We present a 7000 LT +
yr paleoseismic record from Lake Tutira (North Island, New Zea-
North Island
New Zealand
+ MD
M
Hawke’s L
land) that ranks among the most detailed Holocene paleoearthquake Bay
FB
chronologies available worldwide, and use it to empirically constrain
NID
the recurrence distribution of earthquakes with a minimum ground-
shaking intensity of MMI 7 in one of New Zealand’s most seismically 40°S
70
active areas. Our analysis confirms that a Poisson process describes H
the waiting times of single moderate to major and/or great paleoearth-
50
quakes in the Hawke’s Bay region.
INTRODUCTION
In New Zealand, as elsewhere, seismic hazard analysis typically 30 gh
is performed by assuming time-independent (Poisson) earthquake pro- rou
Australian plate ngi T 0 50 100 km
cesses (Stirling et al., 2012), even though paleoseismic investigations of ra
10 km ku Pacific plate
great (moment magnitude [Mw] ≥ 8] earthquakes that dominate the low- Hi
frequency seismic hazard often reveal a repeating pattern (Berryman et Figure 1. Tectonic setting of Lake Tutira (LT; North Island, New Zea-
al., 2012). However, the high-frequency hazard in active tectonic settings land) and continental slope (MD) core sites, denoted by crosses (af-
originates from a large variety of different seismic sources that generate ter Mountjoy and Barnes, 2011; Wallace et al., 2009). NIDFB—North
smaller-magnitude, moderate (Mw ≥ 5) earthquakes, which are beyond the Island dextral fault belt. Gray lines are active faults; numbered gray
resolution afforded by most paleoseismic archives. Thus, there is debate contours are modeled depth to plate interface; open and solid cir-
cles are epicenters of A.D. 1921 and 1931 earthquakes. Ellipses de-
about how best to validate seismic hazard analysis results over millennial limit area affected by ground shaking of Modified Mercalli Intensity
time scales (Kulkarni et al., 2013; Baker et al., 2013). > 7 caused by an Mw 8.3 earthquake on a fault in the plate boundary
Lake sediments can function as natural seismographs and are a recep- (H; indicated by bold, dashed line), and Mw 7.9 and 7.3 earthquakes
tive but largely unexplored repository of regional-scale information about on Lachlan (L; bold black line) and Whakatane (W; bold black line)
faults, respectively (after Litchfield et al., 2009). Subduction interface
earthquake ground motions (Strasser et al., 2013, and references therein; source is projected to surface from 5 km depth, whereas other faults
Moernaut et al., 2014). We use a new high-resolution paleoseismic archive are mapped surface positions. Dashed gray square delimits search
from Lake Tutira to constrain the recurrence distribution of earthquakes in area, centered on Lake Tutira, used to extract data from New Zealand
North Island, New Zealand’s Hawke’s Bay region with a ground-shaking earthquake catalogue (quakesearch.geonet.org.nz/).
intensity of Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) ≥ 7. Here the seismic haz-
ard is well illustrated by the deadly A.D. 1931, Mw 7.8 (MMI 9) Napier
earthquake, and the moderate 2008, Mw 5.9 (MMI 7) earthquake that
caused >NZ$2 million damage to insured residential households. the most complete sediment record, comprising a 27.14 m sequence of
interlayered airfall tephras, autochthonous organic-rich muds, well-graded
LAKE TUTIRA PALEOSEISMIC ARCHIVE sandy muds and thin clay layers, and massive to weakly graded silty clays
Located in central Hawke’s Bay, Lake Tutira lies 30 km above the (Orpin et al., 2010). The sandy mud and clay layers are interpreted as
subduction interface, 160 km landward of Hikurangi Trough (Fig. 1). Its storm deposits (Page et al., 2010). A sharp basal contact, dispersed car-
bathymetry preserves the former stream-cut valley morphology of steep- bonaceous debris, faint laminations, and weak fining-up grading in the
sided, interlocking spurs descending to a narrow, sinuous floor (Orpin et silty clay units are indicative of their emplacement by sediment mass
al., 2010), and cores extracted from the 1.8 km2 lake have yielded high- flows. Analogous seismically induced mass-transport deposits that fill
resolution disturbance and storm histories (Page and Trustrum, 1997; Page topographic lows in small, confined subaqueous basins have been termed
et al., 2010). Collected in 2003, in 37.4 m of water, core LT24 contains homogenites (Sturm et al., 1995).
GEOLOGY, February 2015; v. 43; no. 2; p. 103–106; Data Repository item 2015042 | doi:10.1130/G36006.1 | Published online 19 December 2014
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Two homogenite lithotypes are differentiated in core LT24 (see the 9 1.0
GSA Data Repository1) on the basis of their diatom diversity and dissemi- MD06-3003 Uncorrelated
nated organic content (Orpin et al., 2010). The first lithotype incorporates 8
Subduction thrust
Cumulative fraction
restrial sources to the lake depocenter, and this allochthonous homogenite 6
lithotype is presumed to have originated from weakly turbulent gravity- 0.6
5
driven flows initiated around the lake margin by large rainstorms. Along
with terrigenous material, organic-rich muds also accumulate on the steep 4
slopes surrounding the core site at a lower ambient rate. Consistent with 0.4
this lacustrine source, the second homogenite lithotype has a diatom flora 3
dominated by autochthonous planktic and tychoplanktic species and a
2
higher (3%–4%) carbon content. 0.2
Storms and earthquakes both have the potential to remobilize lake- 1
margin sediments (Orpin et al., 2010), and we reinterrogated the LT24 sed-
iment record with the object of disassociating, on the basis of their juxtapo- 0 0.0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
sition with storm deposits, autochthonous homogenites provoked by large
rainstorms from those generated by earthquakes. Seventeen autochthonous Calendar years BP
homogenites immediately overlie thick storm deposits and are presumed Figure 2. Dimensionless (measured / aggregate mean [69.5 mm])
to have been created when terrigenous inputs overloaded the lake margin. earthquake-triggered homogenite thickness in core LT24, and cumu-
We tested the efficacy of our separation using Spearman’s rank-order cor- lative time distributions of paleoseismic events that cores LT24 (bold
black line, N = 119) and MD06-3003 (bold gray line, N = 25) record.
relation, which measures the strength of association between two variables Open circles denote uncorrelated homogenites; solid and shaded
(Borradaile, 2003). For the shortest congruent time frame, the correlation circles denote homogenites thought to be associated with prehis-
coefficient (P > 0.05) reveals no significant relation between the 200 yr toric earthquakes on subduction thrust and Lachlan fault; error bars
bin frequencies with which storm deposits and the remaining 2–492-mm- are uncertainties in estimates of radiocarbon ages for prehistoric
earthquakes in terrestrial paleoseismic record (N.J. Litchfield, 2014,
thick, autochthonous homogenites occur in the sediment record. Thus, we personal commun.); shaded square is homogenite correlated with
infer that earthquakes generated these 119 homogenites. the A.D. 1931 earthquake (which conceals symbol for the 1921 earth-
Our linear age-depth model relies on 17 dated depths and is based on quake). MMI—Modified Mercalli Intensity.
the rate at which autochthonous organic-rich mud accumulates between
the event lithotypes (see the Data Repository). Confidence ranges (95%)
for the age estimates of the earthquake-triggered homogenites are between marine turbidite paleoseismic record from the adjacent continental slope
±2 yr and ±210 yr. We find earthquake-triggered homogenites in core (Pouderoux et al., 2012).
LT24 that correlate (±1 yr) with the shallow 1931 Mw 7.8 (MMI 9) and Core MD06-3003 was collected in 2006 from the 1400-m-deep
deep 1921 Mw 6.6 (MMI 7) Hawke’s Bay earthquakes, and which occur Paritu Trough, which lies 5 km above the subduction interface, 20 km
within ±3–38 yr of ten major and/or great earthquakes recognized in the inboard of Hikurangi Trough (Fig. 1). Here the sedimentary record reg-
terrestrial paleoseismic record (Fig. 2). However, these 12 events collec- isters the effect of major earthquakes on at least seven offshore active
tively account for only 10% of the earthquakes that we infer Lake Tutira faults (Pouderoux et al., 2014), and during the past 7000 yr, Mw > 6.5
recorded during the past 7000 yr (see the Data Repository). earthquakes (MMI ≥ 8) triggered failures on the continental slope that
Global and New Zealand studies have shown that landslide size generated 25, 20–360-mm-thick, fine-grained turbidites. We use the Kol-
scales with MMI (Keefer, 1984; Hancox et al., 2002). Ground shak- mogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, which is sensitive to differences between
ing ≥MMI 7 is thought to represent the lower limit of intensity likely the frequency distributions of two (unequally sized) samples (Borradaile,
to cause subaqueous landslides (Keefer, 1984), and >120-mm-thick 2003), to compare the cumulative time distributions of the earthquake-
homogenites are attributed to the 1921 and 1931 Hawke’s Bay earth- triggered turbidites in core MD06-3003 and the 119 homogenites in core
quakes (Fig. 2). To illustrate the influence different earthquake sources LT24 (Fig. 2). We accept the null hypothesis (P = 1.0; D = 0.0356) that the
have on Lake Tutira, we refer to the MMI 7 contour for the simulated data are drawn from the same population and, on this basis, we infer that
events on three active east-coast faults (Fig. 1), estimated from the the association between the two classes of observation arises because both
National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for New Zealand (Litchfield types of sediment mass flows were initiated by earthquakes. Nonetheless,
et al., 2009). The modeled events represent an Mw 8.3 earthquake on there are nearly five times more earthquake-triggered homogenites in
the Hawke’s Bay segment of the Hikurangi subduction interface; an Mw LT24 than turbidites in MD06-3003 (see the Data Repository).
7.9 earthquake on the northern section of the Lachlan fault; and an Mw Sedimentation rates govern subaqueous slope stability (Strasser et al.,
7.3 earthquake on the southern segment of the Whakatane fault. These 2007), and the average accumulation rate on the continental slope (0.6 mm
reference points suggest that major and great earthquakes on the subduc- yr–1) is much lower than in Lake Tutira (≥2 mm yr–1) (Orpin et al., 2010;
tion interface, offshore thrust faults, and strike-slip faults in the North Pouderoux et al., 2012). For this reason, more time is required to load
Island dextral fault belt all potentially have the ability to produce the the continental slope with sediment prior to failure. Both the magnitude
MMI ≥ 7 required to remobilize lake-margin sediments in Lake Tutira. and focal depth of earthquakes relative to the point of interest also influ-
This knowledge permits us to broaden the perspective that comparison ence the threshold of sediment mass flows (Keefer, 1984), and MMIs an
with the terrestrial paleoseismic records afford. We do this by consider- order of magnitude higher than that ordinarily required to trigger subaque-
ing the evidence for Holocene earthquakes provided by a contiguous ous landslides are thought to have initiated the slope failures that created
the mid-slope basin turbidite record (Pouderoux et al., 2014). Thus, we
construe that the richness of the Lake Tutira paleoseismic record results
1
GSA Data Repository item 2015042, stratigraphic column, age model,
and paleoearthquake chronology, is available online at www.geosociety.org/pubs
from: (1) the faster rate at which the lake-margin sediments accumulated,
/ft2015.htm, or on request from editing@geosociety.org or Documents Secretary, and (2) the heightened sensitivity that the lacustrine environment has to
GSA, P.O. Box 9140, Boulder, CO 80301, USA. ground shaking near the threshold (MMI 7) for subaqueous landsliding
analyze core LT24. Kelvin Berryman, Nicola Litchfield, Nicolas Pondard, Laura uplift: Example from the Hikurangi Margin, New Zealand: Geochemistry
Wallace, and two other reviewers provided constructive criticism and/or informa- Geophysics Geosystems, v. 12, Q01005, doi:10.1029/2010GC003326.
tion that significantly improved the manuscript. Orpin, A., et al., 2010, Holocene sedimentary record from Lake Tutira: A tem-
plate for upland watershed erosion proximal to the Waipaoa Sedimentary
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Geology
Geology 2015;43;103-106
doi: 10.1130/G36006.1
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Notes