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3, 2005
Translated from Denki Gakkai Ronbunshi, Vol. 124-B, No. 7, July 2004, pp. 937–946
Method to Estimate Long-Term Change of Heat and Electric Power Daily Load
Curves in Japan
19
demands. The method enabled an indirect evaluation of the
validity of a daily heat load curve by comparing the pre-
dicted values of the grid power system with the actual
values.
where α and β denote the partial regression coefficients. 3.3 The explanatory variables
3.2 The statistical data used for the analysis Figure 5 shows the flow of the annual demand fore-
casting. The regression model used economic indices, pro-
The power and steam consumption by users in the duction, population, climate, and so on as the explanatory
manufacturing sector was taken from statistics [7]. The variables. One or two explanatory variables were allocated
power, cooling, heating, and hot water demands in the to the demand by each user as given in Table 2.
Fig. 2. Estimates, actual, and forecasting results of Fig. 4. Actual and forecasting results of yearly steam
annual electric power load. load.
20
commercial use [9]. GDP and the private final consumption
expenditure [9] were used for the cement industry and the
other manufacturers, respectively. The population, the
number of households, wages per worker, the total floor
area of buildings in commercial use, heating and cooling
degree days, and kerosene wholesale price [9] were the
explanatory variables of the residential and commercial
sectors.
Table 2. Explanatory variables, adjusted-R2 estimated parameters of regression analysis for annual energy consumption
21
Table 3. Sources of simulation assumptions
22
Table 4. Results of regression analysis; explanatory variables, adjusted R2, and estimated parameters
4. Daily Load Curves of the Demands consumption and the steam demand. The hourly pattern of
the steam demand is the same in all seasons although the
value itself was varied in each season by multiplying the
4.1 A model for the computation of daily load
value by a coefficient.
curves
The hourly and seasonal load patterns of the other
Figure 7 shows the calculation flow for hourly energy manufacturers and the iron manufacturers were not avail-
demand. The annual energy demand is decomposed by able. Therefore, the average of the entire industry, which
season, by days, and by hours. The hourly demand can be was generated from Ref. 8, was used.
expressed as In the residential and commercial sectors including
households, the hourly pattern of the consumption ratio of
the power demand was unchanged throughout the year [13].
(4) It was assumed that the cooling demand occurred only in
the summer season, and the heating demand occurred only
where Q denotes demand and D denotes the number of in the winter season. The hourly pattern of the hot water
days. γ and δ are the consumption ratio by season and the supply was varied in each season [13].
consumption ratio by hour, respectively. The annual total of The residuals include mining, railway, street lights,
γ and the daily total of δ is equal to one. Subscripts i, s, and agriculture, and construction. It was impossible to deter-
t refer to user, season, and hour, respectively. mine the hourly patterns of the power demands by these
users because the sum of them accounted for only 50% of
the annual total power demand by the residuals [16]. There-
4.2 Parameters of the daily load curve
fore, those power demands were averagely distributed
computation among the night and early morning hours between 19:00
and 8:00.
The parameters for computing hourly energy demand The hourly load curve of the grid power system’s
are given in Table 5. The hourly pattern of the electricity consumption will be discussed in the next section.
demand in the manufacturing sector is the same throughout
all seasons.
The hourly pattern of the steam demand was replaced
by the hourly fuel consumption ratio [8]. It was confirmed Table 5. Parameters for computing hourly energy
that a good correlation was obtained between the fuel demand
23
4.3 Examples of the daily load curve
Fig. 8. Hourly power demands of commercial and Fig. 10. Changes of hourly total steam demand curves
residential sector (F.Y.2000). of industrial sector (for reference).
24
were between 0.66 and 0.74. It was difficult to predict the where COP is the coefficient of performance of equipment
yearly variation of the steam demand accurately. to supply heat. µ denotes the ratio of the heat supplied by
electric equipment to the total heat demand. The subscript
5. Daily Load Curve of the Grid Power C&R denotes the residential and commercial sectors.
The daily load curve of the grid power system was (C) The power consumption of power plants on
generated from the daily load curves of the demands ob- standby
tained in the previous section. The power consumption of power plants that are on
standby can be computed by Eqs. (10) and (11):
5.1 The model of the daily load curve of the
grid power
(10)
The daily load curve of the grid power was modeled
by Eqs. (5) through (13). First, the hourly load of the grid (11)
power was determined as follows:
where ε is the availability factor of the plant excluding base
load hours. D is the number of days.
(5)
(D) The pumping power of the pumped storage
where P denotes the total power demand to the grid and E hydroelectric power plant
denotes each type of the power demand. Subscripts y, s, t,
and i represent year, season, time, and user, respectively. Equation (12) calculates the electricity consumption
The power demand and the heat demand supplied by elec- for pumping of the pumped storage hydroelectric power
tric equipment are denoted by the subscripts e and h, plants:
respectively. Stp, Hyd, and Lss represent power for standby,
hydro pumping, and transmission and transformation
losses, respectively. (12)
The terms on the right-hand side of Eq. (5) were
obtained by using the following equations. The first term
(E) The transmission and transformation losses
refers to the sum of the power demand by users, which was
composed of power demands by the manufacturing sector The transmission and transformation losses are cal-
and by the residential and commercial sectors. culated by Eq. (13):
(8)
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the ratio of self-power generation to the total power demand
[7]. The hourly values of the self-power generation were
estimated by multiplying the ratio and the power demand.
The ratio of self-power generation to the total power
demand after the year 2005 was assumed by taking into
consideration the pervasion of self-power generation in the
manufacturing sector. The ratios for the pulp & paper,
chemical, iron, and cement manufacturers were kept at the
present levels, while that of the other manufacturers was
linearly increased at the same rate as for recent years.
(B) The installed capacity of cogeneration systems in
Fig. 13. COP of electrical heat supply devices in
the residential and commercial sectors was far smaller than
commercial and residential sector.
the capacity of the grid power. Therefore, it was assumed
that all of the power demand was supplied by the grid
power, as given in Eq. (8). The power consumption of
[16]. The availability factor, ε, was estimated by assuming
devices to supply heat, such as air-conditioner and electric
that all of the power plants were in operation at the peak
water heater, were accounted by Eq. (9). The ratio of the
demand in the summer season. The hourly demand was
heat supply by electric equipment to the total heat demand
computed by Eq. (10). It was assumed that the power for
was obtained from Ref. 9, which is given in Fig. 12. The
standby would account for 4% after the year 2005.
ratios after the year 2005 were estimated by linear extrapo-
(D) The pumping power of the pumped storage hy-
lation.
Figure 13 shows the average coefficient of perform- droelectric power plant accounts for about 1.6% of the total
ance (COP) of electric equipment for heat supply taking power demand [16]. It was assumed that the pumping
into account the pervasion of the equipment. The cooling power was required equally between 1:00 and 8:00. The
COP of home air-conditioners was estimated to be 2.53 (in value in the year 2000 was used as the values after the year
the year 1990) in Ref. 15. The cooling COP used in the 2005 in consideration of the domestic water resources.
study was about 75% of that in the reference, which took (E) The transmission and transformation losses
into account the deterioration due to part load operation. amount to more than 5% of the total power demand [16].
The cooling COP of commercial-use air-conditioners was The losses were distributed to each hour in proportion to
estimated by a comparison with home air-conditioners. The the power consumption. The losses after the year 2005 were
heating COPs were assumed to be 1.0 for both the residen- estimated by a linear regression analysis of the past values.
tial and commercial sectors. The COP of electric water The losses in the year 2025 were predicted to be 4.7% of
heaters was assumed to be 0.8 because water heater was in the power consumption.
operation at night and stored hot water. The COP took into
account the heat loss from the hot water tank. Besides Eqs. 5.2 The forecasted annual power consumption
(8) and (9), it was assumed that the water heater produced
hot water evenly from 1:00 to 7:00. Figure 14 shows the forecasted annual power con-
(C) The electricity consumption of power plants on sumption compared with two other forecasts. CRIEPI [4]
standby amounts to about 4% of the total electricity demand
Fig. 12. Ratio of electrical heat supply in heat demands Fig. 14. Forecasted yearly grid power supply (with
of commercial and residential. CRIEPI and IEEJ estimated).
26
forecasted the annual energy demand based on the transi-
tion of the population. IEEJ [3] used a macro economic
model for the forecast.
The explanatory variables, such as GDP growth rate,
population, and floor area, of our model corresponded to a
middle case of the forecasts by CRIEPI and IEEJ. The result
of our forecast was close to the low case of CRIEPI and the
base case of IEEJ. It was confirmed that the result did not
contradict the forecasts of existing researches on power
demand.
*
The hourly average of the actual data in three seasons was used. The
winter data in 1990, 1995, and 2000 were generated by regression analysis
using actual power generation results from 1975 to 1995 and cooling and Fig. 16. Correlation (R2) of grid supply actual data and
heating degree days because of the lack of data. estimated loads.
27
Fig. 17. Estimated hourly grid power supply curves.
On the other hand, other CHP that have a high heat- demand to power demand for the years 2000 and 2020. It
to-power output ratio would result in a lower heat utilization was confirmed that the duration curve in 2020 was similar
rate. The waste heat temperature of those CHP equipment, to that in 2000. The result implied that cooling supply by
such as gas turbines and gas engines, is high. It is, therefore, heat-driven chillers would be more significant for CHP in
possible to operate absorption chillers with CHP. The the residential and commercial sectors.
authors obtained the duration curves of the ratio of cooling
7. Conclusions
28
3. The daily load curves of the heat and power de- into account the lifestyle and IT facilities. Proc 21st
mands showed different yearly variations, which suggested Annual Meeting of Japan Society of Energy and
that the heat-to-power ratio also had a yearly variation. Resources, p 67–72, 2002. (in Japanese)
4. The demand-side heat-to-power ratio was pre- 7. Research and Statistics Department Ministry’s Sec-
sented as the duration curve because it would have a strong retariat MITI. The structural survey of energy con-
influence on the operation of CHP. It was shown that the sumption in commerce and manufacturing. (1980,
demand-side heat-to-power ratio tended to decrease. 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000). (in Japanese)
8. HPTCJ. Research and development of a super heat
The method used in the study assumed that a macro pump energy integrated system. Research of a total
scale demand curve would only be affected by the consti- system. 1991. (in Japanese)
tution of users and supply systems. The characteristics of 9. The Energy Data and Modelling Center, the Institute
users regarding the demands were assumed to be un- of Energy Economics, Japan. Handbook of energy &
changed. Nevertheless, the results showed an accuracy of economic statics in Japan. The Energy Conservation
forecasting. The forecast can be improved by reflecting the Center, Japan; 2003. (in Japanese)
result of the research concerning individual user’s con- 10. National Institute of Population and Social Security
sumption patterns in the future.
Research. Population project for Japan: 2001–2050.
The daily load curves by users and by end-use cate-
1999. (in Japanese)
gories presented in the study enable energy system analysis
11. National Institute of Population and Social Security
on the grid power system with distributed power genera-
Research. Future estimation of the number of house-
tion. The authors’ future research would be analysis of the
holds of Japan. October, 2003 estimation. 2003. (in
entire energy system in Japan including the combination of
power plants and distributed generating systems. Japanese)
12. Research Institute of Construction and Economy.
Long-term prediction of a construction market. The
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AUTHORS (from left to right)
Takuya Oda (nonmember) joined Hitachi Zosen Corp. after completing his master’s course at Kyushu University in 1997.
He enrolled in a doctoral course at the Graduate School of Bio-Applications and Systems Engineering, Tokyo University of
Agriculture and Technology, in 2001, and obtained a doctoral degree in 2004.
Atsushi Akisawa (member) finished a master’s course in the Department of Electrical Engineering at the University of
Tokyo in 1987. While working for Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., he completed a doctoral course at the same university as
his master’s course. As a lecturer (1995–1996) and as an associate professor (1996–) at Tokyo University of Agriculture and
Technology, he has devoted himself to academic activities including research on energy policy and technology, energy system
analysis, solar energy utilization, and optical concentration devices.
Takao Kashiwagi (nonmember) started a doctoral course at Tokyo Institute of Technology in 1975 after graduation from
a master’s course in 1972. He worked as an associate professor at Tokyo Institute of Technology. Since 1988, he has been a
professor at Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology. He was also a professor at Kyushu University in 1996. His research
field mainly includes energy and environmental systems, refrigeration and air conditioning as well as applied thermal
engineering.
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